Does​ ​Pop​ ​Consumption​ ​Increase​ ​Cavities?

Created​ ​by:​ ​Jolie​ ​and​ ​Charlie

Does​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​consumed​ ​relate​ ​to​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​a​ ​person
has?​ ​Jolie​ ​and​ ​I​ ​have​ ​found​ ​that​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​consumed​ ​has​ ​a​ ​very​ ​weak​ ​negative
correlation​ ​to​ ​how​ ​many​ ​cavities​ ​a​ ​person​ ​has.​ ​We​ ​surveyed​ ​50​ ​people​ ​from​ ​the​ ​senior
and​ ​junior​ ​classes​ ​at​ ​Fowler​ ​High​ ​School.​ ​The​ ​negative​ ​result​ ​was​ ​surprising​ ​at​ ​first,​ ​but
after​ ​a​ ​thinking​ ​about​ ​it,​ ​a​ ​negative​ ​correlation​ ​was​ ​not​ ​so​ ​surprising.​ ​Pop​ ​contains​ ​a​ ​lot
of​ ​sugar,​ ​but​ ​sugar​ ​consumption​ ​is​ ​not​ ​the​ ​only​ ​factor​ ​that​ ​contributes​ ​to​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of
cavities​ ​that​ ​ ​a​ ​person​ ​has.
The​ ​dependent​ ​variable,​ ​or​ ​response​ ​variable​ ​in​ ​our​ ​survey​ ​is​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of
cavities​ ​the​ ​students​ ​had.​ ​The​ ​independent​ ​variable,​ ​or​ ​explanatory​ ​variable​ ​is​ ​the
amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​consumed​ ​in​ ​ounces​ ​per​ ​week​ ​for​ ​each​ ​student.​ ​As​ ​we​ ​went​ ​around
surveying​ ​students,​ ​we​ ​found​ ​that​ ​there​ ​were​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​students​ ​that​ ​consumed​ ​a​ ​great
amount​ ​of​ ​pop,​ ​but​ ​didn’t​ ​have​ ​many​ ​cavities,​ ​and​ ​there​ ​were​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​people​ ​who​ ​didn’t
consume​ ​any​ ​pop,​ ​but​ ​had​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​cavities.​ ​This​ ​is​ ​why​ ​our​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​line​ ​is
negative.​ ​If​ ​you​ ​look​ ​at​ ​our​ ​scatter​ ​diagram,​ ​you​ ​can​ ​see​ ​the​ ​negative​ ​trend​ ​in​ ​the​ ​data.
Because​ ​we​ ​had​ ​a​ ​few​ ​people​ ​who​ ​drank​ ​an​ ​extreme​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​with​ ​a​ ​little​ ​amount
of​ ​cavities,​ ​our​ ​data​ ​shows​ ​almost​ ​no​ ​correlation.
Our​ ​r​ ​value​ ​that​ ​we​ ​calculated​ ​from​ ​our​ ​data​ ​on​ ​drinking​ ​pop​ ​and​ ​cavities​ ​was
-.019.​ ​This​ ​value​ ​shows​ ​that​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​consumed​ ​and​ ​number​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​a​ ​junior
or​ ​senior​ ​may​ ​have​ ​has​ ​a​ ​very​ ​slight​ ​negative​ ​correlation.​ ​The​ ​r​ ​squared​ ​value​ ​that​ ​we
calculated​ ​was​ ​.00036535.​ ​This​ ​means​ ​that​ ​our​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​regression​ ​line​ ​shows
about​ ​0.037​ ​%​ ​of​ ​our​ ​data​ ​was​ ​explained​ ​and​ ​96.3%​ ​of​ ​our​ ​data​ ​was​ ​unexplained​ ​by​ ​the
least​ ​squares​ ​line.​ ​The​ ​very​ ​low​ ​percentage​ ​of​ ​explained​ ​variable​ ​means​ ​that​ ​we​ ​had
lurking​ ​variables​ ​in​ ​our​ ​survey.​ ​An​ ​example​ ​of​ ​a​ ​lurking​ ​variable​ ​in​ ​our​ ​data​ ​collection
could​ ​be​ ​how​ ​much​ ​the​ ​student​ ​brushes​ ​their​ ​teeth.​ ​If​ ​a​ ​student​ ​doesn’t​ ​drink​ ​much​ ​pop,
but​ ​never​ ​brushes​ ​their​ ​teeth,​ ​they​ ​may​ ​have​ ​a​ ​lot​ ​of​ ​cavities.
We​ ​calculated​ ​the​ ​x​ ​bar​ ​and​ ​y​ ​bar​ ​of​ ​our​ ​data.​ ​(x​ ​bar,​ ​y​ ​bar)​ ​is​ ​a​ ​point​ ​that​ ​falls​ ​in
the​ ​middle​ ​of​ ​the​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​line.​ ​The​ ​point​ ​falls​ ​on​ ​the​ ​middle​ ​of​ ​the​ ​least​ ​squares
line​ ​because​ ​x​ ​bar​ ​is​ ​the​ ​average​ ​of​ ​the​ ​x​ ​values,​ ​and​ ​y​ ​bar​ ​is​ ​the​ ​average​ ​of​ ​the​ ​y
values.​ ​Our​ ​x​ ​bar​ ​came​ ​out​ ​to​ ​be​ ​59.14,​ ​and​ ​our​ ​y​ ​bar​ ​is​ ​1.94.​ ​This​ ​means​ ​that​ ​the
average​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​consumed​ ​per​ ​week​ ​by​ ​select​ ​juniors​ ​and​ ​seniors​ ​is​ ​59.14
ounces,​ ​and​ ​the​ ​average​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​that​ ​the​ ​juniors​ ​and​ ​seniors​ ​have​ ​had​ ​is
1.94.
The​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​regression​ ​line​ ​can​ ​be​ ​used​ ​to​ ​predict​ ​values​ ​in​ ​between​ ​the
data​ ​points​ ​we​ ​have​ ​collected,​ ​or​ ​points​ ​outside​ ​of​ ​the​ ​values​ ​we​ ​have​ ​collected.
Predicting​ ​point​ ​in​ ​between​ ​the​ ​values​ ​we​ ​have​ ​already​ ​collected​ ​is​ ​called​ ​interpolation.
For​ ​example,​ ​if​ ​we​ ​wanted​ ​to​ ​know​ ​how​ ​much​ ​pop​ ​someone​ ​with​ ​3​ ​cavities​ ​was​ ​likely​ ​to
consume​ ​per​ ​week,​ ​we​ ​would​ ​use​ ​the​ ​equation​ ​y=​ ​-.0003486x​ ​+​ ​1.961​,​ ​which​ ​is​ ​the
equation​ ​for​ ​our​ ​regression​ ​line,​ ​and​ ​plug​ ​a​ ​200​ ​in​ ​for​ ​the​ ​x.​ ​The​ ​200​ ​is​ ​200​ ​ounces​ ​of
pop​ ​consumed​ ​per​ ​week,​ ​and​ ​if​ ​that​ ​is​ ​plugged​ ​in​ ​for​ ​the​ ​x,​ ​the​ ​answer​ ​of​ ​1.89​ ​is​ ​the
number​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​the​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​line​ ​will​ ​predict​ ​that​ ​person​ ​has.​ ​Extrapolation​ ​is
predicting​ ​an​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​a​ ​junior​ ​or​ ​senior​ ​will​ ​have​ ​outside​ ​of​ ​the​ ​data​ ​points​ ​we
have​ ​already​ ​collected.​ ​For​ ​example,​ ​we​ ​could​ ​plug​ ​700​ ​ounces​ ​in​ ​for​ ​the​ ​x​ ​in​ ​the​ ​least
squares​ ​equation​ ​and​ ​get​ ​1.72​ ​cavities.​ ​It​ ​is​ ​not​ ​really​ ​possible​ ​to​ ​have​ ​1.72​ ​cavities,​ ​so
we​ ​would​ ​conclude​ ​that​ ​a​ ​person​ ​who​ ​drinks​ ​700​ ​ounces​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​per​ ​week​ ​would​ ​have
about​ ​2​ ​cavities.
The​ ​marginal​ ​change​ ​of​ ​our​ ​data​ ​was​ ​-.0003486.​ ​This​ ​means​ ​that​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of
pop​ ​consumed​ ​decreases​ ​by​ ​-.003486​ ​ ​per​ ​every​ ​cavity​ ​a​ ​student​ ​has.​ ​Because​ ​our
data​ ​has​ ​almost​ ​no​ ​correlation,​ ​our​ ​least​ ​squares​ ​line​ ​is​ ​not​ ​very​ ​accurate.​ ​It​ ​is​ ​difficult
to​ ​predict​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​cavities​ ​a​ ​student​ ​will​ ​have​ ​based​ ​on​ ​the​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​pop​ ​they
drink​ ​because​ ​of​ ​the​ ​very​ ​slight​ ​negative​ ​correlation​ ​between​ ​the​ ​two​ ​topics.