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Causesofwar 151021094306 Lva1 App6892 PDF
Causesofwar 151021094306 Lva1 App6892 PDF
Is war natural or man made? Is every war uique? Are there some deep, underlying
causes that can help us to understand (and prevent) future wars?
Why do wars occur?
‘A military conflict waged between (or among) national entities, at least one of which is a state,
which results in at least 1000 battle deaths of military personnel.’
Oldest form of war, hence loads of material to explain these wars
The individual level: human nature and psychology: States do not make war, people do.
The desire for power (animus dominandi)
Innate aggression: an instinct necessary for the preservation of the individual and species
Decision makers and war: 4 models have been suggested: Rational Actor Model (RAM), the
Cognitive model, the Affective model, the Prospect model
The Rational Actor Model (RAM)
Assumes that decision makers want to maximize gains and minimize losses
Assumes clearly defined preferences, which are ranked in hierarchy
Consider all possible policy options and evaluate the outcomes of each
Select the one that achieves their objectives with minimum costs
Limitations/criticisms: Do not have all the information and options; generally resort to the
Expected Utility Theory: compararive utility of war, negotiation, appeasement; the model is over
simplification of reality; decision makers are incapable of perfect rationality, hence resort to
limited or bounded rationality (incorporates incomplete information, miscalculations,
misperceptions)
The Cognitive Model
Leader’s personal emotions such as insecurity and hostility distort perceptions and reduce the
quality of decision making
Stress: Absence/moderate/high
Other emotions: shame, humiliation
The Prospect model
People tend to ‘make decisions based upon the value that they attach to particular choices’
in reference to a given point/situation
Leaders do not want to lose what they already have, prepared to take risks when there is the
‘prospect’ of making gains, but will be cautious when there is a ‘prospect’ of losses.
Losses subjectively hurt more than gains feel good....
Groupthink
Members of a small cohesive group unconsciously tend to develop a number of
shared illusions that impede objective evaluation of a situation
Conflicts and causes
A thought......
THERE have been nine wars and almost 130 violent conflicts across the
world this year, according to an annual report released on Monday
December 15th by the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict
Research, a think-tank. The study classifies conflict broadly to include
peaceful disputes over politics or borders (low intensity), as well as those
involving sporadic or constant violence (medium or high intensity). In 2008
previously non-violent conflicts escalated into violence in countries such as
Kenya and Yemen. Ideological change is both the most common cause
of conflict and the root of most wars, but there is rarely only one cause of
dispute. Congo's ongoing conflict encompasses a battle for its mineral
resources and, according to some, an invasion by another state, Rwanda.
The Unit level: Foreign policy and war
In crisis, public model tends to rally around leaders (eg George W Bush)
Unit level contd......
Neorealists are the main proponents of this level. They base their assumptions on 3
characteristics:
Distribution of Power: Rapid change in the power balance can lead to war; debate on the
utility of unipolar/bipolar/multipolar (which is most likely to lead to war/peace?)
Security dilemma: Rousseau’s Stag-hare parable or the prisoner’s dilemma; lack of trust among
players (the game theory)
Constructivists: ‘kill or be killed logic of the Hobbesian state of nature has been replaced by
the live and let live logic of the Lockean anarchic society’
Disarmament and arms control: lack of these can lead to war; 3 categories are:
types/numerical/testing & development
Intrastate wars
Proliferation during Post Cold War: more than interstate wars today
Ethnic, nationalist, religious conflicts within a state
Not really limited to one state but do spill over to other regions/countries
Overall, more complex to understand than interstate wars; also because
they are relatively new on the global scale
Individual-level explanations
Emphasize deep, historical animosities, conflicts over scarce resources, redressing past and
present injustices, and security dilemma arising out of domestic anarchy
Ethnic hatred: Ancient, primordial animosities: Deep rooted in history. But is it really true? How do
you explain the periods of peace? Paul Collier calls it a myth.
Economic explanations (Collier): Low-income countries, with weak govts and that are rich in
natural resources: Iraq (oil), diamonds (Sierra Leone), timber (Cambodia); Nigeria – 40 distinct
ethnicities and oil-rich
Justice seeking: social fragmentation, large unemployment, political repression
Domestic security dilemma: among different groups within a state
End of topic activity
In your group, locate as many current wars as you can on the world map
Use the following links to find the lists of current conflicts
GlobalSecurity.org
www.crisisgroup.org
Managing intrastate wars
More difficult to resolve and manage than interstate wars because both the ‘fighting’ parties live
together
1940-1990: Only 20% civil wars resolved through negotiations compared with 55% interstate wars
Most civil wars ‘ended with extermination, expulsion, or capitulation of the losing side’
Each group views its armed forces as its ‘only means of protection’ so refuses to disarm
Management strategies
Foreign intervention (Third party involvement): to provide diplomatic support, military security
and economic aid
Entails risks and may intensify the conflict
Succeeds best if the third party has a self-interest in upholding the bargain, is willing and able to
use force to implement the agreement
External forces remain until the vulnerability of rival groups is lessened by installing a new neutral
govt
Foreign economic aid, if used carefully, can be helpful, esp for rehabiliting the younf men who
have fought all their lives
Discussion and research question: Considering the above points, find out (and discuss) the steps
taken by the international community in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Management strategies contd....
Power-sharing agreements:
Authority must be decentralized and shared among ethnic groups
Democratic institutions are insufficient at this stage because it takes time to establish these
Two kinds of suggested arrangements are: Federalism and consociationalism; Eg Iraq with
autonomous regions for Kurds, Shias, Sunnis; leaders were chosen from different groups as well
Might lead to future conflicts if the regions are unequal in natural resources, eg Kurdish and
Shiite regions are rich in oil, but not the Sunnii region in central Iraq
Physical seperation: Might be a short term solution, but require population transfers