RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:-

 “Systemized Method to gain knowledge”. A process of determining,

acquiring, analyzing, synthesizing, and disseminating relevant business
data, information, and insights to decision makers in ways that
mobilize the organization to take appropriate business actions that, in
turn, maximize business performance.

 Research methodology comprises defining and redefining the problem,

formulating hypothesis or suggestion solution, collecting, organizing
and evaluating the data, making deduction and reaching to
conclusions and determines whether the formulated hypothesis is right
or wrong.

 The search for knowledge through objective and systematic method of

finding solution to a problem is research. The systematic approach
concerning generalization and the formulation of a theory is also
research.

RESEARCH PROBLEM

Today, Many Traders and investors purchase those stocks which are
high during short time of period . so, I will select Technical Analysis as
the tool which Can predict future price of stocks.
In ANGEL BROKING I will find that they focus on Fundamental
analysis rather than Technical analysis .I already mention that today
 investor and Traders want short term and fast gain rather than long
term.

ORIGIN & FORMULATION OF RESEARCH OBJETIVE

In this point, I will consider the objective of research why need to study about
technical analysis of share market. Tomorrow will not secure nobody knows what
will happen. Same in share market there is no security of tomorrow .so, the need of
technical analysis arises which can predict the price of various scripts.

So, My research objectives are as below,

• Understanding the technical analysis theories and methods to

analyze the 5 companies of telecom sector with technical
analysis

• To study price movement of these scripts

• To study different theories and methods of technical analysis.

• To find out expected price trends of individual scripts by using both

indicators and oscillators as well as various charting techniques .

RESEARCH DESIGN :-
Research design is blue print for fulfilling research objective and answering question
.

There are three types of research design.

 Exploratory research design.

 Descriptive research design.
 Causal research design.

At the starting phase of research usually exploratory research design can use it
also quite use in formulation of research objective. After that the descriptive
research design and causal research design can useful in second phase of research.

Here I use descriptive research design for technical analysis of share market.

METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION

The task of data collection begins after a research problem has been defined and
research design plan chalked out. While deciding about the method of data
collection to be used for the study, the researcher has kept in mind two types of
data viz., primary and secondary.

The primary data are those which are collected afresh and for the first time, and
thus happen to be original in character.

The secondary data, on the other hand, are those which have already been
collected by someone else and which have already been passed through the
statistical process.

Collection of Primary Data

• Live trading in the stock Market.

Collection of Secondary Data

• Magazines related to technical analysis

• websites like icharts.com, nse.com and also the website of
angel broking.

Here I will clearly define that in my research objective I use only

secondary data.

SAMPLING DECISION

The sampling decision is to whether to go for census or sample survey. Census

survey is desirable when population is small, geographically is concentrated and
high accuracy is required.

In my project I will use sample survey. I will consider 5 telecom industry

companies which are as below :-

 RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
 BHARTI AIRTEL
 MTNL
 IDEA
 TATA COMMUNICATION

And my time duration is :- 04 January to 25 June of 2010.

FIELD WORK TO COLLECT THE DATA

Here I use only secondary data source so, no need for field work but secondary data
like charts and theory are mainly from websites like icharts.com and various.

EDITING AND TABULATION OF DATA

There are various unnecessary data can also be collected so, It requires editing so,
as a researcher I will more focus on this part of research because we use secondary
data. And for simple understanding I use various table and charts.

DATA ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS

BHARTI AIRTEL:-

Let’s compare all graphs combine:-

• In volume graph we can easy predict the demand and supply of stock,
if volume increases and trend is upside then it shows the new buying is
emerged in this stock and it gives the buying signal and if the volume
is increasing but the trend is downwards then it gives the selling
signal.

• From above graph we can see that when the candles of candle stick
chart is white than volume of that particular graph shows buying and
oppositely we can say when the red candle shows in candlestick chart
it shows selling signal.

• IN this indicators base on blue line and red line i.e. 5 and 3 days
average. If BLUE lines cuts the RED lines then it indicates the sell
signal so investors have to book the profit or then can take the short
 position in sell. If RED lines cuts the BLUE line and it gives the buying
signal which act as resistance and one can buy the stock.
• Looking at upper graph it clearly shows that now the trend must
change because at the %k and %d at same level so, I advice traders
and investor to buy the stock.

• RSI indicator actually gives the overbought and oversold this particular
stock. When demand increase that stock gives the upward movement
and at one particular time it comes into overbought level and that level
will act as a resistance level where investors start booking the profit
and avoids new buying. Like wise in oversold position that level will act
as support and investors start buying this stock at that level.
• We can see the 3 days %D line it cuts %K so it shows buying signal.RSI
also shows over sold situation so, it shows buying signal.
MATHEMATICAL INDICATORS

• Looking at Bollinger band graph it shows the lower range and upper
range it shows that if market volatile, and if market bullish or bearish
than what is exact price of buying and selling. In this graph we can say
the range is RS 262.95-RS 280.30.it means Investor and Trader can
trade in this range if market is volatile.

• By analyzing the chart based on EMA (10&20 days) we can see that Rs
266.17-Rs267.20 is the Support level to buy this Particular stock. If it
fails to sustain above this level i.e. Rs 266.17-Rs267.20 then it may
witness the further down trend, So it is advisable not to buy.

• wma (10 and 20 days)we can see that Rs266.54 –Rs275.85 is the
support level and than after Rs260 is next support level of buy this
stock. If it fails to sustain above this level i.e. Rs 266.54-Rs275.85 then
it may witness the further down trend, So it is advisable not to buy.
IDEA CELLULAR LTD.

• Looking at the chart of volume it shows supply and demand of this

stock, here the volume shows that investor less liking that stock or
investor can’t trade at this time but looking at future the volume chart
can be higher than current. Also the there is less effect on closing
price. So, technically this stock is less likely by the investors and
traders.
• Candle stick charts are very popular in technical analysis, and I also
briefly describe it in theory part of my project ,but here I mention the
very important concept that is doji chart,
• It means on this particular day low moment on this stock
Example:-25 Jan 2010.

• From RSI the trend is take time to change so, this stock is purchasing
by investor and traders. Here also we can analyze that when stock is in
over bought position then we have to avoid buying and in oversold
position we have to avoid selling.

• Fast stochastic is basically short term indicator, it shows only when to

trend can change. Some technical analyst also predicts the buying and
selling signal from this indicator. They assume various ratios like
30:70, 20:80 etc, As like same RSI they predict the buying and selling
signal.
• EMA shows that the support level of this stock is RS53.94 and
RS54.74.if it can’t maintain than not to buy that stock. Here I suggest
that looking at low fluctuation in this stock I recommend to buy this
stock at EMA’s level.

• From analysis of above chart of wma (10 and 20 days)we can see that
Rs53.60 –Rs54.43 is the support level and than after Rs51 is next
support level of buy this stock.
 • If it fails to sustain above this level i.e. Rs 53.60-Rs54.43 then it may
witness the further down trend, So it is advisable not to buy.

• Bollinger band shows the range of stock it is RS50.69-RS58. One can

make trade in this particular range .

MTNL

Volume
indicates the
quantity of
trading on
particular
day either by
investor or
traders or
both. This
stock is not
liking by the
investor and
traders in
past but
looking at
closing price
graph it
clearly shows
that the
price of the
stock is in
future goes
upside and
it’s volume
become high
in near
future. And
volume of
particular
stock may
also depends
on news
(Good or
Bad ) of
particular
company.

• Candl
e stick
chart
sugge
st also
suppo
 rt
levels
like
here
we
can
say
that
after
suppo
rt
level
of
Rs55,t
he
next
suppo
rt
level
is Rs
53.

• RSI
gives
predic
tion
about
when
trend
is
chang
e.
Lookin
g to
this
partic
ular
graph
it
clearly
indicat
e
invest
or and
trader
can
book
the
profit
and
goes
out of
this
stock.
• IN this
indicat
ors
base
on
blue
line
and
red
line
i.e. 5
and 3
days
avera
ge. If
Red
lines
cuts
the
blue
lines
then it
indicat
es the
sell
signal
so
invest
ors
have
to
book
the
profit
or
then
can
take
the
short
positio
n in
sell. If
blue
lines
cuts
the
red
line
and it
gives
the
buyin
g
signal
which
act as
resista
 nce
and
one
can
buy
the
stock.
• Here
both
blue
and
red
line is
almos
t
aroun
d Rs
56 but
lookin
g at
their
values
I
predic
t the
red
line
cuts
the
blue
line.
 So,
invest
or
should
book
the
profit
or
short
positio
n in
sell.

• Lookin
g at
WMA
(10
and
20
days)t
he
suppo
rt
level
of the
stock
is
betwe
en
RS56.
29-
RS60.
63. so,
as
techni
cally I
recom
mend
the
invest
or that
in this
range
one
can
buy
this
stock ,
if the
stock
can’t
sustai
n in
this
range
I will
recom
mend
that
 invest
or
should
not
buy
this
stock.

• From
the
above
chart
of
MTNL
EMA
the
shows
the
level
of
RS57-
RS61
for
buyin
g
suppo
rt
level.
 If it
can
not
sustai
n than
the
next
suppo
rt
level
is
Rs50.

• EMA
10
and
20
days
graph
shows
equali
ty in
line
so, it
shows
low
fluctu
ation
in this
and
low
 profita
bility
in this
stock.

• we
can
see
the
Bollin
ger
Band
indicat
or
which
shows
the
actual
range
of this
stock
From
Rs 49
to Rs
 68..
• .it
means
that if
this
stick
is
peak
up
trend
than
the
price
is high
up to
RS68,
likewis
e if
stock
is
going
downt
rend
than
the
suppo
rt
levels
are
RS49,
RS40.
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION
 • Candlestick chart shows about the whole day history like open, close,
high, low, prices. Looking at this graph we can say that this stock is
high fluctuate and also we can see some doji candles.

• Volume basically shows that demand and supply of the stock. Looking
at past few days it clearly shows that the volume is increase and also
positive news of the company so we can say that the volume increases
at buying side.

• RSI also shows that at that level still buying in the stock but we can
see the future picture that the stock is different. In short span of time I
can predict that the trend is change, it’s time for selling.

• Fast stochastic shows that the stock is buying ,Because fast stochastic
shows near future of stock. And also graph shows that the %k line is
higher than %d line so the first movement come in %d so, we Can
predict it time to sell the stock.

MATHEMATICAL INDICATOR
 • WMA 10 and 20 days shows the support level range RS167.87-
RS186.02 .we can Say that one can buy this stick in this range
otherwise it is advisable not to buy stock.

Let’s know the support levels of this stock which are as below :-

1) RS165
2) RS160 and further.

Let’s known about resistance levels which are as below:-

1)190
2)195 and further.

• EMA shows the price of this stock is RS170.68-RS186.73, but at time

the closing price of stock is RS192.it clearly shows that the price can
increase but looking around near future the price will fall down.

• Also, Bollinger Band shows the Range of stock is RS147-aboveRS205. It

shows the range at which one can buy the stock. It shows the upper
and lower limit, at these two range one can buy or sell the stock. After
that the particular stock can change their trend.
TATA COMMUNICATION
 • Volume chart is basically indicates that the number of trade
during particular day. Here it indicate the level of trading
quantity of particular day. It shows demand and supply of the
stock.
• Candlestick charts shows that there is less fluctuation in this
stock ,here high rate of doji candles so, we can say low
fluctuation mean less attract to the investor as well as traders.

• Looking at the RSI it clearly shows now the time to change the trend
now the investor and trader can sell their stock and make new buying.

• Fast stochastic clearly shows that red line now cuts the green line so
we can say that investor and traders sell their stock.
• From analysis of above chart of wma (10 and 20 days)we can see that
RS245.98 - RS254.05 is the support level and than after Rs230 is next
support level of buy this stock.
• If it fails to sustain above this level i.e. Rs 245.98-Rs254.05 then it may
witness the further down trend, So it is advisable not to buy.

• Here from this graph we can analyze that the EMA shows price is
RS247.53-RS254.20. so if the one can buy this stock in this range only.
• If this stock goes down side than the next support level is RS240

From Bollinger band the range of stock shows RS235-RS264.

So, it is advisable to buy this stock at lower level and sell at upper
level. It make high profitable to investor.
Findings:

COMPANY INDICATORS AND OSCILIATORS

EMA WMA BOLLINGER RSI FAST

BANDS
STOCHASTI
C

BHARTI AIRTEL Rs266.17- Rs266.54 RS 262.95- BUYING

BUYING
267.20 –275.85 280.30

RELIANCE RS170.68- RS167.87- RS147- BUYING BUYING

COMMUNICATION 186.73 186.02. aboveRS205

MTNL RS57-61 RS56.29- Rs 49 - 68 BUYING BUYING

60.63

TATA RS247.53- RS245.98 RS235-264. BUYING BUYING

COMMUNICATION 254.20 - 254.05

IDEA RS53.94 Rs53.60 RS50.69-58 BUYING BUYING

-54.74 -54.43
Conclusion:

• The major points I have found out with the technical analysis are as
follows:

• Technical analysis can get early signals of buying and selling based on
the price movements though the investor does not know the exact
nature of the information.
• Technical analysis suggests using stop loss order to save investor from
a much bigger loss in future.

• Many times stop-losses based on the technical analysis get triggered

during the sideways moves and the price move back to its original
position.
RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Technical analysis gives various techniques to save the investor from

the future losses like stop losses.

• After understanding and applying the technical analysis approach, my

recommendations are as below.
• One should use a combination of indicators, oscillators and chart
patterns for forecasting share price.
• Technical analysis decides the entry as well as exit points so, Investor
should follow technical analysis.
• Every technical Analysist forecast different prices for particular share.
So, Investor and Trader should not be compulsive and greedy.
• Technical analysis gives various techniques to save the investor from
the future losses like stop losses.
• Technical analysist must use maximum indicators and oscillators for
better forecasting.
• All indicators are give different signals can not ignore signals

As per my understanding I will give some golden rule of Technical

Analysis:-

• Trend is your Friend.

• Don’t be too Greedy
• Always be flexible.
• Take trading decisions all by yourself.
• Ride on your Profits, Cut your losses.
• Don’t be a compulsive trader.
• Make use of all trading tools