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11 Supply Chain PDF
11 Supply Chain PDF
ozlem.dogan@deu.edu.tr
Abstract
This research contains supply chain analysis of Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and it shows working
styles, tools, organization structure, relations with other departments, procedures and all the processes in the supply
chain management discipline. Furthermore, it focuses on the return/stale products that are date expired, damaged
and then return from customer side to the company. “Return/Stale Products” has a big impact on the Profit & Loss
Statement (P&L) of the company and also it is an important part of total sales volume. To solve this problem, with
analysis of supply chain of the company was started with some key parameters, reviewed the return/stale process
and updated account-based processes. After the analysis phase, the new concepts of the global world about return
products were searched and in the design phase they were integrated into the alternative solution ways that were
presented to the company. On the other hand, forecasting methodology was an important concept to search while
the alternative solution was being designed.
Key words: supply chain analysis, return/stale products, forecasting methodology
13th International Symposium on Operations Research and Econometrics Working Statistic-(ISEOS) is also presented.
INTRODUCTION
International trade is growing day by day with the activities step in this point. Companies can attack
effects of globalization, economic and political more powerful with establishing a more efficient
integration with the disappearing borders, capture and logistics infrastructure within their global markets.
integrate the efforts of countries in the globalizing International logistics management focuses on the
world, trade liberalization, the discovery of new achievement of international markets by
markets, new companies to join the national understanding the expectations of the production of
competition, advancing communication and tradable goods preceding the final stage of the supply
information technologies, developed transport to the consumer movement in the global supply chain
infrastructure, increasing the importance of transport network in a manner to provide the lowest cost,
corridors and so on. highest customer satisfaction. Supply chain
management provides important support to the
Firms operating in international markets create
logistics studies.
the competitive advantages via responding global
demand more quickly and economically from its
competitors. The importance of international logistics
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“SCM is a set of three or more companies is also main focus of this study (Dvorak and
directly linked by one or more of the upstream and Paasschen, 1996).
downstream flows of products, services, finances and
Lambert and Cooper (2000) has indicated that
information from a source to a customer.“ (Mertzer,
FMCG industry is linked with closely in managing
2001).
Supply Chain and Logistics between factories and
customers. Working together is crucial in order to
“A supply chain consists of all stages involved,
carry out consumer wishes better, faster and at less
directly or indirectly, in fulfilling a customer request.
cost.
The supply chain not only includes the manufacturer
The FMCG Industry is on a high growth path with
and suppliers, but also transporters, warehouses,
the overall demand expected to raise varied over the
retailers and customers themselves...” (Chopra and
next decade. This is most likely to be accompanied
Meindl, 2003; Simchi-Levi et al., 2003). Although
by significant structural ways such as changing
the information flow in Supply chain systems
customer preferences, emergence of modern retail
consists of cumulative data about costs parameters,
formats, and growing rural tendency (Giunipero and
production activities, inventory systems and levels,
Brand, 1996).
logistic activities and many other related processes;
bethinking of the definition exposes that the
Technology also effects FMCG sector on good
performance of a successful Supply chain system
way. Technology improves the potential benefits of
concerns mostly with accurate and appropriate
supply chain management through reduction of
demand information as this vital data influences all
inventory losses, increase of the efficiency and speed
decision making processes of supply chain (Tozan
of processes and improvement of information
and Vayvay, 2007).
accuracy with RFID technology. A number of
Supply Chain Management is a discipline that companies in FMCG industry have begun to use
starts from the planning process specifically forecast radio frequency identification (RFID) technology
of the goods that will produce and ends with the extensively. Some studies also carried out by
services that are provided to the consumer after sales researchers in literature (Bottani and Rizzi, 2008;
operation. All the transactions and links between Sarac et al., 2010)
these processes are the elements of the supply chain.
The paper especially focuses to optimize
There must be a balance and optimization between
efficiency of the taking orders from customers,
these transactions (Hugos, 2002; Schary and
delivering the product to the customer and customer
Mikkola, 2001).
services after the sales optimization in snacking
Supply chain operations can be classified like sector; slate, delist products that means products
this; come back from customers to the firm due to slate,
delist or another reasons.
Planning includes forecasting, market
research
Production and supplier coordination
Delivering to the customers
Customer services after the sales
As a field of SCM has taken an importance over the
last few years. There are many indications that the
field will continue to grow both in terms of research
and cases. SCM have benefits but the required
Figure 1. Project Focus
conditions necessary to achieve those benefits, such
as process management and cross functionality,
customer satisfaction, process orientation, and SALES MANAGEMENT
information sharing. However, SCM also has many
problems that many researcher discuss on and try to A sale is the pinnacle activity involved
solve with new methods. FMCG is a one of them that in selling products or services in return for money or
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other compensation. It is an act of completion of a forecasts which can then be interpreted jointly or
commercial activity. combined in sensible fashions to generate a superior
value.
It is an end point of the whole organization.
Purchasing, Production, Marketing departments etc. Recently, firms have begun to realize the
work to build a potential for “the Great Volume of importance of sharing information and integration
Sales”. Service sales, product sales, it is not across the stakeholders in the supply chain (Zhao et
important what you sale, you have to satisfy your al., 2002). Although such initiatives reduce forecast
customer needs to keep the customer long period errors, they are neither ubiquitous nor complete and
work – partner. It is called win & win strategy. forecast errors still abound (Carbonneau et al., 2008).
In the global markets, Organized trade forms Forecasting accuracy is a critical element of
more from half of the Sales part. The increasing trend supply chain management, but it is an area that
of the retail markets and discounts markets makes the continues to challenge most companies.
organized trade “shining star” on the global markets.
Organized trade is the new concept of Sales. In FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
organized trade, selling high volume of product in
case of determined agreements are made together Moving Averages
customer. When seasonal patterns exist without trends,
simple smoothing methods work well with
In Turkey, Sales process on traditional channels deseasonalized data. Intrinsic forecasting methods are
generally but due to multi-national companies, new those that use the past behavior of series to predict
concepts are speak out and applied in many the future value of that same series. The term intrinsic
companies in Turkey a little late, too. denotes that the information used to forecast the
Sales organization’s key points are; series is internal or within the series. The terms time
series analysis, univariate forecasting methods, and
Sales peoples, who are in touch with smoothing methods are often used as synonyms for
customer, intrinsic methods (De Lurgio and Bhame, 1991). The
Distribution channels, that have to reach moving average forecast uses the average of a
every point you want to stand, defined number of previous periods as the future
Warehouses, that located optimum points forecasted demand (Carbonneau et al., 2008).
and it has to answer the orders,
Moving averages model is useful when the
And, Manager team to lead these points,
patternless demands exist. Patternless demand
accurate forecasts, well-built
defined as one that does not have a trend or
organization structure.
seasonality in it. A patternless series is random with
In addition to this, on Fast Moving Consumer either smooth or erratic variations.
Goods sector In Turkey, Organized Trade is newly
adopted and it is an increasing trend concept. As Weighted Moving Averages (WMA)
Pepsico, Coca-cola, P&G, etc. huge profitable It is normally true that the immediate past is most
companies makes their distributions major relevant in forecasting the immediate future. For this
percentages in traditional way. reason, weighted moving averages was used, when
more important period (sales, or return data) were
FORECASTING considered. For example, sales amounts are high
before Christmas, so in January expected sales
Forecasting is an ancient activity and has become amounts are low, and then lower index was used to
more sophisticated in recent years. For a long time, calculate the January’s forecast.
steady steps in a time series data set, such as simple The most important reason for not using moving
trends or cycles (such as seasonals), were observed averages is that exponential smoothing is as accurate
and extended into the future. However, now a as moving averages while at the same time
mixture of time series, econometrics and economic computationally more efficient. When using moving
theory models can be employed to produce several average, it is more difficult to determine the optimal
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number of periods to include in the average. In called independent variables (Franzese and Kam,
contrast, it is somewhat easier to find the optimal 2007).
number of periods using the exponential smoothing
model. ESTIMATING TRENDS WITH
Exponential Smoothing
DIFFERENCES
Exponential Smoothing refers to a set of methods
of forecasting, several of which are very popular – A trend is an increase or decrease in a series that
Brown’s double, Holt’s two parameter and Winters’ persists for an extended time. For nonseasonal data,
three parameter EXPOS. many use a rule of thumb that a trend exists when
seven or more observations show a consistent
EXPOS is the most widely used of all increase or decrease. Trends can be difficult to detect
forecasting methods. The trend and seasonally when a series has significant randomness and
adjusted exponential smoothing methods are used in seasonality.
many computerized forecasting systems for
production, inventory, distribution, and retail Remembering that a trend is a consistent increase
planning (De Lurgio and Bhame, 1991). or decrease over time, it was understood that using
differences identifies trends. Definitionally, first
Single Exponential Smoothing differences are:
Single exponential smoothing is easy to apply. Yt – Yt-1 = Change from Period t-1 to t
Uses – the most recent forecast, the most recent
actual demand, and a smoothing constant (alpha). Forecasting with Differences
The smoothing constant determines the weight given Yt = Yt-1 + b (Mean of the differences)
to the most recent past observations and therefore,
controls the rate of smoothing. It must be greater than Yt = Yt-1 + b
or equal to zero and less than or equal to one. Yt+m = Yt + m*b
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Nonlinear Trends and Second Differences Strategic Sales Targets (grow rates)
The process of differences can be used to forecast
nonlinear trends using either multiple differences or Sales Procedures
logarithms. Logarithms are useful when the trend is a Customer Alliances
percentage growth function and double differences
are useful when modeling quadratic functions. The Point of sales activities(POS) Indexes
formula for using second differences is; It has a short product lifecycle to manage which
Yt - Yt-1 = First differences (5) creates difficulty for supply chain. React provides to
see sales and potential stale/return in the base of
(Yt - Yt-1) – (Yt-1 - Yt-2) = First differences of first product and location week by week.
differences (6)
In addition, there would be some tools like Excel
(called second differences) Macro, ERP, and Java, to build it in software. There
In the forecasting form, the process of second is an uncertainty about the digital environment for the
differences is; ReAct to be used in. It will be decided by IT
personnel later.
Forecasted amount = 2Yt-1 - Yt-2 + b (7)
b = The mean of the second differenced series and
represents a trend estimate
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Return
Month
Product(KG) Difference
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Y=
506,39+0,0107X
Syx = 387,189
Error
Percentage
= 11,6
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REFERENCES
1. BALLOU, R.H. (2004), Business
Logistics/Supply Chain Management, Planning,
Organizing and Controlling the Supply Chain,
Fifth Edition, Pearson Printice Hall.
CONCLUSION
2. BOTTANI E., RIZZI A. (2008), “Economical
According to the results of data analysis and the Assessment of The Impact of RFID Technology
experience in the firm, one of the most essential and EPC System on The Fast-Moving Consumer
factors in return/stale problem is rotation. Extension Goods Supply Chain” International Journal of
Production Economics, Volume 112, Issue 2, pp.
and development of merchandiser team, and also
548-569
increasing their rotation consciousness are crucial in
solving the issue. The account based observations and
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