COUNTRY REPORT: MEXICO

MARCH 19th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: POLITICAL RISK MEASURE
- López Obrador maintains his edge in the horse race. -MODERATE-
- Anaya (PAN) locks second place while Meade (PRI) is third. [••••••••••]
- Zavala got the ok to compete as independent. Involved factors: Violence;
- President Peña Nieto’s popularity remains very low. Corruption; Populism; Weak
- OAS concerned about political violence. incumbent.

BIWEEKLY SUMMARY:
Two weeks before the start of the electoral campaign, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador
(AMLO) remains -according to multiple polls- as the undisputed frontrunner towards the
presidential election of July 1st. Pollsters agree to position AMLO with a voting intention between
33% and 40%, with a difference of 10 perceptual points above Ricardo Anaya, the PAN leader that
fronts the coalition “Por Mexico al Frente”. In third place, emerges José Antonio Meade, the
nominee of the ruling party PRI, which steers the coalition “Todos por Mexico”.
Of the three possible independent candidates, only ex-first lady Margarita Zavala (married with
former President Felipe Calderón), got the approval of the Mexican electoral authority to compete
in the election. On the other end, Jaime Rodriguez and Armando Rios Piter couldn’t prove the
authenticity of the 866,593 endorsements needed to be accepted as independent candidates and
their nominations are likely to be excluded for the presidential election.
AMLO, who ran for presidency in 2006 and 2012, is looking good to finally win. He has been taking
advantage of the corruption scandals affecting the elites of both PRI and PAN parties and has
learned from his prior nominations to avoid populist related remarks. Besides, the continuous
attacks between Meade and Anaya and the independent candidacy of rightist Zavala have set a
favorable scenario for him, who in average has led the national vote in the last two presidential
elections if taken together (33% vs. 31 % from the PAN and 30% from the PRI).
In the upcoming months there are three presidential debates (April 22nd, May 20th and June 12th)
that could change the course of the campaign. AMLO is a charismatic politician but also hot-
tempered and unpredictable. Among his challengers, Anaya looks better suited than Meade to
move up in the polls: he is a superior speaker and does not bear the burden of an unpopular
president. According to Consulta Mitofsky, Peña Nieto’s presidential approval dropped in the last
trimester to 21%, very close to the all-time lowest of 17%, registered one year ago.
Besides president, Mexicans will be electing 128 federal senators, 500 members of the House and
hundreds of local officials. For the remaining time of the year Congress’ activity will be set to a
minimum as most congressmen are working on the electoral campaign.

Alerts about political violence have been heard in the last weeks. Luis Almagro, secretary general
of the OAS, expressed deep concerns about the violence of the electoral Mexican process. He
pointed out that 30 candidates have been murdered so far and announced that the OAS will send
electoral observers to supervise the election.
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ELECTORAL GLOSSARY:

COALITION LEADING PARTY IDEOLOGY PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE

Juntos Haremos Historia Morena Center Left Andrés M. Lopez Obrador
Por Mexico al Frente PAN Center Right Ricardo Anaya
Todos por Mexico PRI Center José Antonio Meade
Independent -- Center Right Margarita Zavala

HARD DATA:
2006 presidential election results 2012 presidential election results
Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (PAN) 36% Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) 38%

Andrés M. López Obrador (PRD) 35% Andrés M. López Obrador (PRD) 32%

Roberto Madrazo Pintado (PRI) 22% Josefina Vázquez Mota (PAN) 25%

Others 4% Gabriel Quadri de la Torre (PNA) 2

Null and white vote 2 Null and white vote 3

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

SOFT DATA:
Peña Nieto’s presidential approval ELECTORAL AGENDA:
90
80
69 March 29TH: Formal approval of
70
60
presidential
50 candidacies
40
March 30 TH: Electoral campaign
30
20 kick-off
21
10
June 27 TH: End of the electoral
0
campaign
Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb

Feb
Nov

Nov

Nov
Dic

Nov

Nov
Ago

Ago

Ago

Ago
Ago
May

May

May

May
May

12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18 July 1 ST: Presidential election

Approve Diapprove
December 1 ST: Presidential
Source: Consulta Mitoksky inauguration
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