DEVELOPMENT OF VULNERABILITY CURVES CONSIDERING

GROUND MOTION UNCERTAINITY.

A project preliminary report submitted to National Institute of Technology, Agartala in the

partial fulfilment of the requirement of Master of Technology in Civil Engineering

Submitted by
PARTHA BHOWMIK
(Roll Number: 17PCE053)

Under the supervision

of
Dr. RAJIB SAHA
Assistant Professor
Department of Civil Engineering

Department of Civil Engineering

(Geotechnical Engineering)

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, AGARTALA

 CERTIFICATE

It is certified that the work contained in the thesis titled “DEVELOPMENT OF

VULNERABILITY CURVES CONSIDERING GROUND MOTION UNCERTAINITY” by
Partha Bhowmik, (Enrolment No: - 17PCE053) has been carried out under my supervision and
that this work has been submitted for the fulfilment of the degree of Master of Technology.

----------------------------------------
Dr. Rajib Saha
Department of Civil Engineering NI, Agartala

8th May, 2018

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 APPROVAL SHEET

The foregoing Project is hereby approved as a study of an engineering subject carried out and
presented in a manner satisfactorily to warrant its acceptance as a prerequisite for the degree for
which it has been submitted. It is understood that, by this approval the undersigned do not
necessarily endorse or approved any statement made, opinion expressed or conclusion drawn
therein but approved the project only for the purpose for which it is submitted.

Examiners

________________________

________________________

________________________

Supervisor (s)

________________________

________________________

________________________

Chairman

________________________

Date: ____________

Place: NIT Agartala

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The success and final outcome of this project required a lot of guidance and assistance from
Dr.Rajib Saha (Assistant professor, Department of Civil Engineering, NIT, Agartala) and I am
extremely fortunate to have got this for my project work. Whatever I have done is only due to
such guidance and assistance and I would not forget to thank him.

I respect and thank Dr. Manish Pal (HOD, Department of Civil Engineering) for giving me an
opportunity to do the project work on “DEVELOPMENT OF VULNERABILITY CURVES
CONSIDERING GROUND MOTION UNCERTAINITY” and providing us all support. I am
extremely grateful to him for providing such a nice support and guidance though he had busy
schedule managing the company affairs.

----------------------------------
Date- 8th May, 2018 Partha Bhowmik
(Enrolment no – 17PCE053)

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 DECLARATION

I declare that this written submission represents my ideas in my own words and where others'
ideas or words have been included, I have adequately cited and referenced the original sources. I
also declare that I have adhered to all principles of academic honesty and integrity and have not
misrepresented or fabricated or falsified any idea/data/fact/source in my submission. I understand
that any violation of the above will be cause for disciplinary action by the Institute and can also
evoke penal action from the sources which have thus not been properly cited or from whom
proper permission has not been taken when needed.

_________________________________

(Partha Bhowmik)
(17PCE053)
Date: 8.05.2018

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 ABSTRACT

Vulnerability curves or fragility curves are useful tools for showing the probability of
structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices. The aim of this
study is to develop the fragility curves for Civil Engineering structures. The determination of
fragility curves has a long tradition in the nuclear industry and reaches back to the 1970s.
Since the late 1990s also for ordinary buildings seismic reliability analysis became more
important and formed the bases for the development of new seismic standards. Several
methods are available to build fragility curves. This paper mainly focuses on reviewing
existing approaches and applications establishing vulnerability curves and the relative effect
of strong-motion uncertainty on the ensuing vulnerability curves.

Keywords: Fragility curves, Reliability analysis, Strong motion uncertainty.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter Chapter Name Page

No. No.
Certificate i
Approval letter ii
Acknowledgement iii
Declaration iv
Abstract v
Chapter 1
Introduction 1
1.1 Vulnerability Curves or Fragility Curves 1
1.2 Definition 2
1.3 Categorization of Vulnerability Curves 2
1.4 Method of seismic Fragility analysis 2
1.5 Ground Motion Uncertainty 3
1.6 Earthquake Ground Motion 4
1.7 Ground Motion Characteristics 4
1.7.1 Amplitude Parameters 5
1.7.2 Frequency Content Parameters 5
1.8 Uncertainties 6
Chapter 2
Literature Review 8
Chapter 3
Objective of Study 25
Chapter 4
Scope of Present Study 26
Chapter 5
Summery & Conclusion 27
References 29
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Content Page Number

1 Example of strong motion earthquake record (N-S component of El- 4
Centro, 1940 earthquake).
2 Design response spectral shape suggested by BIS (IS 1893-2002). 5
3 a) Example incremental dynamic analyses results, used to identify IM 9
values associated with collapse for each ground motion. b) Observed
fractions of collapse as a function of IM, and a fragility function.

4 a) Example MSA analysis results. Analyses causing collapse are 10

plotted at Peak Story Drift Ratios of greater than 0.08, and are offset
from each other to aid in visualizing the number of collapses .b)
Observed fractions of collapse as a function of IM, and a fragility
function.

5 Overall Geometry of the Structure 12

6 General procedure of the probabilistic CSM 13
7 Mock-up of SMART2013 benchmark project (left) and the numerical 16
model (right).
8 Response spectra of simulated accelerograms (blue), their median and 17
±1σ values (magenta) compared to the target values (red).
9 Examples of time histories (acce 1 – acce 3 from top to bottom, left) 18
and corresponding response spectra (Pseudo Spectral Acceleration –
PSA, right).
10 Family of fragility curves based on the Safety Factor method 19
11 Flow chart for the derivation of analytical vulnerability curves 20
12 Average response spectrum of selected ground motion sets. 22
13 Definition of limit states: (a) serviceability state, (b) damage control 23
state, (c) collapse state.

14 Derived vulnerability curves using various methods – normal a/v ratio, 24

limit state = ISD 0.57%.