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MEMORANDUM

TO: Stewart for Senate
FROM: Rick Shaftan, Atlantic Media & Research
RE: Virginia Survey: May 14-18, 2018
DATE: 5/21/18

Atlantic Media & Research completed 355 surveys of Virginia
Republicans who had voted in two of the last three primaries
(March 2016, June 2016 and June 2017) and who said their chances
of voting in the June 2018 primary were “definite” or “very
likely.” The theoretical margin of error is +/- 5.2 percent in
95 percent of cases at a 50 percent response rate.

ANALYSIS

Corey Stewart holds a healthy 32-9 lead over Nick Freitas with
E.W. Jackson third at 5 percent. He is up 34-10 with 5 for
Jackson among those definitely voting.

Stewart leads by 32-10 (4 for Jackson) in the expensive DC media
market, by 29-16 (8 for Jackson) in the area that contains the
Richmond, Charlottesville, Harrisonburg and Raleigh markets and
is up a whopping 36-4 (2 for Jackson) in the area that contains
the Tri-Cities, Bluefield, Greensboro and Roanoke-Lynchburg TV
markets.

The race is closer in the Norfolk market where Stewart leads
Jackson by 23-9 (5 for Freitas).

Stewart leads Freitas by 35-10 with men (5 for Jackson) and by
29-8 (6 for Jackson) with women.

Stewart also did surprisingly well with the Freitas target group
of voters under 50, where Stewart holds an insurmountable 42-11
lead over Freitas (4 for Jackson).

The frontrunner leads by 34-9 (6 for Jackson) with very
conservative voters (50 percent of the electorate) and by 30-10
(4 for Jackson) with everyone else. Among the 58 percent who
attend weekly services, Stewart holds a 30-9 lead over Freitas
(7 for Jackson).
Stewart also leads by 46-9 (5 for Jackson) among those voters
reached on cellphones, indicating his support could be higher
than this survey illustrates.

In the three months since the Christopher Newport University
survey of 422 Republicans was completed, Stewart has doubled his
support from 16 to 32 points – a gain of 16 points. Freitas has
risen from 6 to 9 percent – up three points, while Jackson has
dropped from 7 to 5 percent – down two points.

Previously undecided voters are moving to Stewart at a better
than 5-1 ratio. Among definite voters, the numbers are even
better.

STEWART NAME ID

Stewart holds a strong 31-8 favorable/unfavorable rating with 77
name ID. He is 33-9 favorable with 79 percent ID among definite
voters and 40-6 favorable with 80 percent ID among very
conservative voters and 21-10 with 75 percent ID among everyone
else. He converts a strong 70 percent of his favorables into
votes.

Stewart is 34-9 with men, 27-7 with women and 35-6 with the
Freitas target group of voters under 50 and 34-5 with those
reached on cellphones.

Stewart is 32-9 favorable in the DC media market, 35-9 in
Richmond, Raleigh, Charlottesville and Harrisonburg and 30-6
favorable in Roanoke-Lynchburg, Bluefield, Greensboro and Tri-
Cities. He remains weaker in Norfolk at 18-9.

Stewart has a 21 percent favorable rating among those voting for
Nick Freitas, and 33 percent with those voting for Jackson,
indicating some of their votes may be up for grabs.

When his favorables were asked what they liked most about
Stewart, 26 percent said they liked his conservative values, 15
percent said he is honest and tells it like it is, 8 percent
said he is pro-Trump, 8 percent say he did a good job in Prince
William County, 6 percent like his views on illegal immigration,
5 percent say he is Republican, 4 percent say he cut taxes, 4
percent mention his Second Amendment stance, 4 percent like his
work on preserving Confederate Statues, 3 percent like his work
in Prince William County, 3 percent like that he is pro-life.
2 percent like the following: Facebook Live broadcasts, in touch
with people, nice person, fighter for the people, general views,
common sense, proven record.

SOCIAL MEDIA

Among those surveyed, 35 percent are on Facebook daily and
Stewart wins that group with a solid 40-13 lead over Freitas (2
for Jackson). But Stewart also does well with those never on
Facebook (46 percent of the sample), where he leads Freitas by
29-7 (6 for Jackson).

Stewart is 40-10 favorable among those on Facebook daily,
indicating his social media campaign has been a success. He is
27-7 with those never on Facebook.

31 percent of men and 39 percent of women are on Facebook daily.
Broken out by age ranges it includes 69 percent of those under
35, 57 percent of those 35 to 49, 39 percent of those 50 to 64,
30 percent of those 65 to 74 and 17 percent of those 75 and
over.

The percentage of voters never on Facebook, by age groups, are
14 percent among those under 35, 27 percent with those 35 to 49,
33 percent with voters 50 to 64, 53 percent with those 65 to 74
and 69 percent among voters 75 and up.

CONCLUSION

Stewart holds a strong lead with three weeks to go and continues
to build momentum as he heads towards the finish line. Freitas,
on the other hand, doesn’t appear to be gaining any traction and
Jackson is going in reverse. As of now, it would take a seismic
shift in the campaign debate for anything to chance in the next
three weeks.

Our advice to the Stewart campaign is not to change a thing with
regards to campaign strategy. Most importantly, the candidate
needs to remain very bold and strong in his advocacy for the
Trump Agenda and conservative values in general.

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