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Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System,
or the Federal Open Market Committee.
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 20, 2018 1
Cumulative Weekly Decomposition, Oct 06-Feb 16, 2018 Recent Decomposition Data
Percentage change ∎ The chart at left depicts the cumulative oil price decomposition
40
Brent price from October 6, 2017.
Oct 6, 2017
30
$55.62 ∎ The table below presents the most recent cumulative values.
Brent crude
price
20
Cumulative Percentage Changes since October 6, 2017
Demand
10 Residual
Demand Supply Rest Brent
Supply Feb 02, 2018 10.7 0.8 9.4 20.9
0
Feb 09, 2018 0.8 2.8 8.5 12.1
Feb 16, 2018 5.7 -0.9 10.5 15.3
-10
Oct 6 Nov 6 Dec 6 Jan 6 Feb 6
Sources: Authors’ calculations; Haver Analytics; Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg L.P.
Notes: Residual reflects price movements unexplained by supply and demand factors.
Supply, demand, and residual sum to Brent crude price.
-50 Supply
-75
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 20, 2018 2
Oil Price Decomposition Q&A
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 20, 2018 3