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Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System,
or the Federal Open Market Committee.
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / January 16, 2018 1
Cumulative Weekly Decomposition, Oct 06-Jan 12, 2018 Recent Decomposition Data
Percentage change ∎ The chart at left depicts the cumulative oil price decomposition
40
Brent price from October 6, 2017.
Oct 6, 2017
30
$55.62 ∎ The table below presents the most recent cumulative values.
Brent crude
price
20
Cumulative Percentage Changes since October 6, 2017
Demand
Residual
10 Demand Supply Rest Brent
Supply Dec 29, 2017 10.6 1.3 6.5 18.4
0
Jan 05, 2018 12.5 0.6 6.5 19.5
Jan 12, 2018 13.8 1.5 7.5 22.8
-10
Oct 6 Nov 6 Dec 6 Jan 6
Sources: Authors’ calculations; Haver Analytics; Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg L.P.
Notes: Residual reflects price movements unexplained by supply and demand factors.
Supply, demand, and residual sum to Brent crude price.
-50 Supply
-75
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / January 16, 2018 2
Oil Price Decomposition Q&A
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / January 16, 2018 3