Cranfield University

Airport Planning and Management MSc

AIR TRANSPORT MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

ASSIGNMENT

26th February 2018

MS Word count: 2493

Section 1 528
Sections 2 & 3 1584
Section 4 381

Excluding figures, tables, appendices and references

Author: Pon Elvira, Adrià

Student ID: s272375

1 VALENCIA AIRPORT: HISTORICAL TRAFFIC NUMBERS
Figure 1 Traffic split by country in 2017 (Source: AENA) VLC is an international airport in eastern Spain
Spain which serves mostly European destinations
8% Italy
4%
2% and ~30% of domestic traffic.
4% 29% Germany
4% United Kingdom
France Traffic grew a 150% between 1999-2006 due
7% Netherlands
to the phenomenal growth of low-cost airlines
Switzerland
9% 13% Belgium and an increasingly competitive domestic
Romania
10% 10% market; indeed, traffic doubled between
Portugal
Others 2002-2005 thanks to the growth of Vueling,
easyJet, Ryanair… Furthermore, the City of
Figure 2 Annual traffic at Valencia airport (Source: AENA)
Arts and Sciences was first inaugurated in
7.0 1998 and completed in 2005, attracting
Millions of passengers

6.0
tourism to Valencia. Then, traffic decreased
5.0
4.0
due to Ryanair dropping its base and the
3.0 global recession, reaching the lowest point in
2.0 2009, with 4,734,381 passengers, decreasing
1.0
a -19.99% in two years. Traffic was unstable
during the 5-year period between 2009 and
2014, with traffic reaching 5,000,000 passengers in 2011 and then decreasing to traffic levels of 2009 in
2014. In the last four years, traffic at Valencia airport (VLC) has been increasing from 4,595,477 passengers
in 2014 to 6,737,227 in 2017 (+46.7%), especially due to the recovering of English and domestic traffic.
Further changes which affected traffic include the Madrid-Valencia AVE connection in 2010 and the
Formula1 GP between 2008-2012.

Figure 3 shows that Valencia has a high seasonal profile, peaking in July and August. It also shows the %
of hotel occupation.

Figure 3 Hotel occupation in Valencia and traffic at VLC 2004-2017 (Sources: AENA and INE)
Hotel occupation (%) Traffic at VLC
90% 800
80% 700
Thousands of passengers
Hotel occipation (%)

70% 600
60%
500
50%
400
40%
300
30%
20% 200
10% 100
0% 0
Figure 4 Annual domestic traffic in VLC 2004-2017 (Source: AENA)

2.8 Domestic traffic increased between 2004-2007 due to

2.6 the growth of AirEuropa, Vueling and Spanair,
2.4
supported by a healthy economic environment and the
Millions of passengers

2.2
2.0 interest generated by the City of Arts and Sciences.
1.8 Significant decreases occurred between 2009-2014;
1.6 partly due to the construction of the AVE between
1.4
Madrid-Valencia in 2010; seats in this route went from
1.2
1.0 860,000 in 2009 to 180,000 in 2014. The global
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
economic crisis led to descents in GDP and increases in
unemployment rates, further contributing to bringing national traffic down.

UE-Schengen.

Figure 5 Annual UE-Schengen traffic in VLC 2004-2017 (Source: AENA)

3.5 Traffic from Valencia to UE-Schengen destinations

Milliions of passengers

3.0 has been significantly influenced by Ryanair and

2.5 Vueling. Both steadily increased their operations
2.0
between Valencia and the EU, going from 16,635
1.5
1.0 and 77,216 passengers in 2004 (<10%) to 575,473
0.5 and 456,950 passengers in 2007, respectively,
0.0
handling the 47.83% of the passengers in this
market. Moreover, Ryanair handled 931,837
passengers in this market in 2008. AirEurope started operating in 2006, being the 3rd airline, carrying
183,077 passengers and ClickAir became important in 2007, with 340,441 passengers.

All carriers saw decreases in 2009, due to the global crisis, and the VLC-UE-Schengen market decreased a
-28.17%, from 2.21million in 2008 to 1.59million in 2009. In 2010, AirBerlin increased operations to/from
Valencia and the main carriers (Ryanair, Vueling, AirEuropa) kept their passenger numbers stable between
2010-2013, followed by Transavia-Holland and Lufhthansa. After 2014, these airlines kept increasing their
operations to get to (% of market share):

Ryanair: 1,555,526 = 47.27% Transavia-Holland: 311,910 = 9.47%

Vueling: 381,159 = 11.58% Lufhtansa: 224,259 = 6.81%

Figure 6 presents this market evolution. The main decreases occurred between 2009-2010 due to the
global recession and in the last 4 years traffic has been increasing due to the Spanish-coasts attractiveness
and the recuperation of economic potential.
 Figure 6 Annual traffic at principal UE-Schengen destinations 2004-2017 (Source: AENA)

1,000
Thousands of passengers
800

600

400

200

0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Italy France Germany Belgium Holland Portugal

UE no-Schengen – UK and Romania.

Figure 7 Annual UK and Romanian traffic in VLC Romania. BlueAir operates since 2006 and
WizzAir since 2007; they’ve served most of the
United Kingdom Romania
capacity with only Vueling in 2009/10 and
800
Thousands of passengers

700 Ryanair since 2016.

600
500 United Kingdom. Flights from the UK to VLC
400
300 were operated between 2004-2007 by
200
Thomsonfly, Ryanair, British Airways, Iberia
100
0 and easyJet. ClickAir operated in 2007/08 and
from then on, all routes were operated by
Ryanair and easyJet, except for 2015-2017,
when British Airways restarted operations. UK traffic decreased significantly by the decision of Ryanair to
close its Valencia base in Oct-2008 and the shift from Spain to North-Africa, especially Egypt and Tunisia.
Due to recent terror attacks, traffic in 2016/17 to these countries diminished in favour of growth in
Spanish traffic (Figure 8).

Figure 8 Change in UK - North Africa traffic 2007 - 2017 (Source: OAG Analyser)

Egypt Morocco Tunisia Algeria Libya

2,500,000
Passengers from UK to North Africa

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2 TRAFFIC FORECAST / RISKS & OPPORTUNITIES1
The ACI Guide to World Airport Traffic Forecasts (Airports Council International, 2016) defines a 5-year
traffic forecast as a medium-length forecast and recommends using linear regression/trend methods.
Forecasts will be segmented by domestic, UE-Schengen and UK traffics, which represented 92.17% of total
VLC’s traffic in 2017. The analyst’s judgement will adjust and validate results obtained by trend projection
methods (see Appendix). Data goes between 2004-2017 since it’s recommended to look back twice as far
as you look forward (Saffo, 2007).

2.1 DOMESTIC TRAFFIC

As seen and explained in Figure 4, trend in the past has been unstable, which makes it difficult to establish
a trendline. Figure 9 and Table 1 show the graphic and numerical results of the trend analysis.

Figure 9 Trendline forecast for domestic traffic 2018-2022 (Excel)

3.0
Millions of passengers)

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Historical values Optimistic forecast Smoothed optimistic forecast

Forecast Smoothed forecast

Table 1 Traffic and percentage change for each of the forecasts

Due to the increasing trend during 2014-2017, there’re no reasons to think that traffic will decrease. VLC’s
domestic market will be analysed next to adjust the forecast and predict the future changes in traffic.

1
Risks to and opportunities for traffic growth considered when producing the forecasts (should be
section 3) will be discussed in this section at the end of each market analysed.
Figure 10 Traffic evolution on the main domestic routes Latterly, the most served airports from VLC in Spain
(Source: OAG Analyser)
have been Palma de Mallorca, Madrid, Ibiza, Sevilla,
350
Bilbao and Barcelona (Figure 10). Flightglobal-
300
Thousands of seats

Schedules gives their changes in flights from Feb-17 to

250
200 Feb-18:
150
PMI: +17%, MAD: +7% SVQ: +21% BIO: +10% BCN:
100
new, 45 flights.
50

Also, flights to AGP and TFS increased, respectively, a

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PMI MAD IBZ SVQ BIO BCN 32% and 33%.

Figure 11 shows a summary of the main recent changes per airline operating these routes.

Figure 11 Changes in the main domestic destinations by carrier, 2014-2017 (Source: OAG-Analyser)

Furthermore, in 2017 Volotea started operating Valencia-Santander (with Ryanair) and their capacity will
increase in 2018, says OAG (Volotea, 2017). Other connections like Valencia-Lanzarote or Valencia-
Menorca saw increases in traffic (served by AirEuropa/Ryanair).

As a regional airport, Valencia’s traffic has been influenced by the strategic decisions of airlines rather
than national economic indicators. For Vueling and Ryanair, Valencia is just one of the many bases they
operate from and there’s no way to know if they will close this base as Ryanair did back in 2008. However,
the capacity they offer has been increasing since 2014: a 63% for Vueling and 46% for Ryanair. The same
happened in the same period with Iberia (27% increase in capacity), AirEuropa and Volotea.

The GDP per capita and unemployment rate are recovering pre-recession values and these will lead,
potentially, to traffic increases. Also, MAD-VLC capacity (provided by Iberia and AirEuropa) has been
increasing since 2014 despite the AVE Madrid-Valencia. The last concern would be related to competency
with Alicante; however, they have been serving similar domestic routes latterly and traffic’s been
increasing regardless. Moreover, charges set by AENA for VLC are lower than those for ALC (AENA, 2018).

Growth opportunities considered.

- Recovering of Spanish economy: values of GDP per capita and unemployment are forecasted to
keep improving.
- Focus and growth of LCCs at the airport, which could diminish fares and attract new passengers.
- Furthermore, Ryanair, Vueling, AirEuropa and Iberia/AirNostrum have been increasing their
capacity to/from the airport since 2014 and there are no signs of this changing soon.
- Competency with Alicante isn’t affecting and won’t affect soon the traffic numbers in Valencia.

Growth risks considered. There are a couple things that could risk Valencia’s growth:

- An AVE link Valencia-Barcelona will start to be constructed in 2019 and could affect air traffic.
- Catalonia’s independence, if it were to happen, could have an important impact on Spain’s
economy, which could potentially reduce traffic numbers.

The last assumption is that airport capacity and hotel capacity in Valencia won’t be constrained soon, as
confirmed by INE and Public Airport Corner (this is assumed as well for the next markets analysed).
Considering everything, the adjusted forecast for VLC’s domestic traffic is presented next.

Figure 12 Adjusted forecast for domestic traffic23

3.5 30%
Millions of passengers

3.0 20%
Percentage change

2.5
10%
2.0
0%
1.5
-10%
1.0
0.5 -20%
0.0 -30%
2007

2017
2004
2005
2006

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

2018
2019
2020
2011
2022

Historical values Forecast

Historical changes Forecasted changes

2 Domestic traffic has increased in Jan-18 a 32.5%, especially due to PMI, SVQ, BCN and SDR (AENA).
3 In ALC, domestic traffic increased from 1.09million to 1.39 million between 2013-2017 (27.6%).
2.2 UNITED KINGDOM
Figure 13 and Table 2 show the graphic and numerical results of the trend analysis.

Figure 13 Trendline forecast for UK traffic 2018-2022 (Excel)

1.2
Millions of passengers

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

Historical values Optimistic forecast Smoothed optimistic forecast

Forecast Smoothed forecast

Table 2 Values for each of the forecasts

The recent changes in this market will be analysed to better predict future developments. Flightglobal-
Schedules gives the following changes in flights from Feb-17 to Feb-18 in UK’s airports:

EDI: new, 12 flights GLA: new, 8 flights LTW: +50%, 4 flights. Furthermore, easyJet and Ryanair are
opening new routes and increasing frequencies:

easyJet:

- Belfast: announced Dec-2017 (Clark, 2017a). OAG: 7,000 seats between June-October 2018.
- Luton: started thrice-weekly flights in Feb-2017 (CAPA, 2017a). OAG: 23,000 seats in 2018.

Ryanair:

- Bristol: twice-weekly starting Mar-2018 (Clark, 2017a). OAG: 12,000 seats between Mar-Oct.
- Edinburgh: started thrice-weekly flights Nov-2017 (Clark, 2017b). OAG: 24,400 seats in 2018.
- Glasgow: started twice-weekly service March-2017 (CAPA, 2017d). OAG: 16,000 seats in 2018.
- Manchester: seats increasing from 11,000 in 2014 to 25,000 in 2018.
- Nottingham East Midlands: seats increasing from 17,000 in 2014 to 23,500 in 2018.
The computer-obtained forecasts will be adjusted based on the historical evolution of English traffic to
Valencia and especially the important increases of traffic for easyJet and Ryanair (50.2% and 28.4%
respectively since 2014), the fact that English tourism’s been increasingly coming to Spain and Valencia
and the unstable situation in the North of Africa, which doesn’t seem to be changing soon.

Growth opportunities considered:

- Ryanair and easyJet strong position in the market isn’t going to change soon; OAG gives higher
capacity for both companies flying UK-VLC and they’re opening new routes and increasing
frequencies in others in 2018 (detailed above).
- Touristic indicators such as pernoctations, arrivals and AENA statistics show increases in the last
four years in English tourism.
- The fear of terror attacks and instability still existing in the North-Africa, will deter tourism there.

Growth risks considered:

- Brexit could affect British traffic to Spain and the rest of Europe if it damages their economy of if
there’re changes in air traffic rights (not considered in this forecast).
- The strategies of easyJet or Ryanair, if they decided to cancel routes or move them to another
touristic airport, as Ryanair did in the end of 2008 due to disputes with AENA.

The adjusted forecast is presented next.

Figure 14 Adjusted forecast for domestic traffic45

1.2 200%
Millions of passengers

1.0 150%
Percentage change
0.8 100%
0.6 50%
0.4 0%
0.2 -50%
0.0 -100%
2004

2008

2012

2016

2020
2005
2006
2007

2009
2010
2011

2013
2014
2015

2017
2018
2019

2021
2022

Historical values Forecast

Historical changes Forecasted changes

4
UK traffic has increased in Jan-18 a 33.9%, especially due to LTN, EDI and GLA.
5
In ALC, English traffic increased from 4.37million to 5.90million between 2013-2017 (35.1%).
2.3 UE-SCHENGEN
Figure 15 and Table 3 show the graphic and numeric results of the trend analysis.

Figure 15 Trendline forecast for UE-Schengen traffic 2018-2022 (Excel)

5.0
Millions of passengers

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Historical values Optimistic forecast Smoothed optimistic forecast

Forecast Smoothed forecast

Table 3 Values for each of the forecasts

FlightGlobal collects the next changes in this market from Feb-17 to Feb-18: FCO: +9% MXP: new, 28
flights NAP: new, 8 TSF: +50%, LIS: +46%, MRS: new, 8 HAM: new, 12 FRA: +157% EIN: +133% MUC:
+33% AMS: +17%. Also, the next airlines are planning new routes and frequency increases:

Ryanair, with 1,555,526 passengers (47.3%): flies mainly to Italy, Germany and Belgium:

- Hamburg: three times per week from May-2017 (CAPA, 2017b).

- Marseille: twice-weekly for winter 2017/2018. (CAPA, 2017c).
- Eindhoven: thrice-weekly since October-2017 (CAPA, 2017e).
- Milan(MXP): connection starting in summer 2018 (Clark, 2017c).
- Cagliari(CAG): twice-weekly in winter 2018/2019, announced Feb-2018 (CAPA, 2018e).

Vueling, 381,159 passengers: mainly to Italy, France, Belgium and Holland: OAG shows no new routes,
but a 18.7% increase in seats offered, from 450,556 (2017) to 534,630 in 2018.

Transavia Holland (311,910 passengers: 288,972 Holland). Started Rotterdam-Valencia in Winter 2017-
2018 (CAPA, 2017f).
Lufthansa: 224,659 passengers, will increase service from twice to three times daily from FRA and from
four to seven times weekly from MUC (CAPA, 2018c), a 59.3% increase in seats offered, says OAG.

TUIfly will start twice-weekly service on 30-Mar-2018. TUI said Spain "remains by far the favourite travel
destination" for Belgians and "popularity is still growing" (CAPA, 2017g).

Alitalia: start route from FCO in 26-Mar-2018, daily, sharing it with Vueling (CAPA, 2018b).

The computer-produced forecast is adjusted considering these recent developments and the risks
to/opportunities for growth mentioned next (Figure 16).

Growth risks and opportunities considered. Here, these are less specific because this is a much broader
market. The main factors which could make this forecast change considerably are:

- Valencia and Spain are attracting more tourists every year due to the “Spanish Brand”, which is
well perceived globally and especially in Europe. Unpredictable events such as an economic crisis,
a terrorist event, etc. have not been considered here and these will surely affect traffic.
- Positive changes in European economy (GDP) might affect traffic positively if GDP (or other
parameters) increase and negatively otherwise.
- It’s assumed that the main airlines operating in this region now, will continue operating and
increasing capacity, as it has been the case latterly and will still be in 2018.

Figure 16 Adjusted forecast for UE-Schengen traffic67

5.0 40%
Millions of passengers

30%

Percentage change
4.0
20%
3.0 10%
0%
2.0 -10%
-20%
1.0
-30%
0.0 -40%
2008
2004
2005
2006
2007

2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

Historical values Forecast

Historical changes Forecasted changes

6
UE-Schengen traffic has increased in Jan-18 a 24.2%, especially due to FRA, MXP and EIN.
7
In Alicante, UE-Schengen traffic increased from 2.76million to 4.35 between 2013-2017 (57.6%).
2.4 OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Other important destinations include Switzerland (284,257 passengers in 2017), Romania (243,601),
Russia (88,559), Turkey (84, 597), Poland, Morocco, Czech Republic, Bulgaria… Most of these markets got
bigger in 2017, as seen next.

Table 4 Passengers and % change of other important markets for VLC

FlightGlobal registers increases in Feb-18 with respect to Feb-17 in the following routes: ALG +50%, by
AirAlgerie, twice-weekly flights from Jun-18 to Sep-18 (CAPA, 2018a); BUD new, 8flights, started by
Ryanair in November 2017, twice-weekly (CAPA, 2017); DUB new, 8flights; RAK new, 8flights; KRK new,
8flights and IST +40%. Furthermore, new routes/frequencies are being launched in 2018:
- VIE: WizzAir will start in Jun-2018 (Clark, 2018b) and will do four-times weekly flights from Nov-
2018 (CAPA, 2018f).
- BOR: Ryanair will start a service this 2018 (Clark, 2018a).
- Morocco: Ryanair, new routes to Tangier and Fez for winter-2018 (CAPA, 2018d).
- Ukraine: Ukraine International Airlines, increased frequency from Ivano-Frankivsk (CAPA, 2018).

2.5 TOTAL TRAFFIC

Figure 17 presents the predicted passenger numbers (monthly) using Microsoft Excel. Time series typically
involve trend, seasonal and cyclical components. However, specialised software like MS-Excel can capture
these components and produce the forecast considering them.

Figure 17 Monthly traffic forecast for Valencia airport 2018-2022

1,000
Thousands of passengers

800

600

400

200

Passengers 12-M-MA Forecast Upper CI Lower CI

As seen previously analysing the main markets, there’re reasons to believe that traffic at VLC will continue
increasing as it did in the last 5 years and it will keep having a clear seasonal behaviour, being a touristic
airport in the Spanish coast, especially due to its appeal for tourists from UK, France, Italy, Germany, etc.

Table 5 Monthly traffic forecast for 2018

MONTHLY FORECAST FOR 2018 Table 5 and
Month Average Optimistic
Jan-18 464,708 26.53% 509,869 38.83% Table 6 present the monthly forecast for 2018 and the
Feb-18 473,124 29.83% 523,636 43.69%
annual forecast for the period between 2018 and 2022, both
Mar-18 572,055 23.21% 627,422 35.13%
Apr-18 651,003 16.11% 710,849 26.78% for the average and optimistic case. Considering the
May-18 670,176 13.75% 734,204 24.62% forecasts produced by the three main markets, the final
Jun-18 688,108 10.42% 756,167 21.32%
Jul-18 764,773 6.52% 836,480 16.51%
forecast will be adjusted to obtain the final monthly and
Aug-18 792,562 5.04% 867,837 15.02% annual forecasts for the total traffic at Valencia airport
Sep-18 681,684 3.65% 760,376 15.61%
(Appendix contains the monthly forecasts produced for
Oct-18 651,304 1.90% 733,286 14.72%
Nov-18 477,704 1.54% 602,471 18.26% each market).
Dec-18 502367 2.66% 590,594 20.69%
Table 6 Forecast for the period 2018-2022

Considering all the factors and forecasts developed in sections 2.1, to 2.4, the adjusted monthly forecast
is presented, together with the monthly traffic for 2018 and annual traffic numbers between 2018-2022.

Figure 18 Adjusted forecast for the total traffic at Valencia airport8

1,200
Thousands of passengers

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Oct-06

Oct-17
Jan-04
Dec-04

Jan-15
Dec-15
Nov-05

Aug-08

May-11

Mar-13

Nov-16

Aug-19

May-22
Jul-09

Jul-20
Jun-10

Sep-18

Jun-21
Sep-07

Apr-12

Feb-14

Passengers 12-M-MA Adjusted forecast

8
In ALC, traffic went from 9.63million to 13.71million between 2013-2017 (42.4%).
3 VALENCIA – ST PETERSBURG
The process of deciding which route has the most potential to be started and which airline’s the most
suitable airline to serve it, is schematized next:

Figure 19 shows the number of tourists that crossed the Spanish border, by country (2016).

Figure 19 Number of tourists per country in Spain, 2016 (Source: INE)

Another consideration to decide which country Valencia should connect with is the expenditure per
tourist in Spain. Figure 20 and Figure 21 present, respectively, the average expenditure per person and by
person and day for tourists that travelled to Spain in 2017, sorted country of residence.

Figure 20 Average expenditure per person (€) per country of origin, 2017 (Source: INE)

United Kingdom Norhtern countries Germany

France Italy Russia
1,600
Average expenditure per person (€)

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400
 Figure 21 Average expenditure per person and day (€) per country of origin, 2017 (Source: INE)

Average expenditure per person and United Kingdom Norhtern countries Germany
France Italy Russia
180

160
day (€)

140

120

100

80

60

Tourists coming from the Nordic Countries and Russia are the ones spending more money. Also, these are
not mature markets, so they have the capacity to grow. Therefore, it’s in the best interest of both the
airport and the region to connect these areas to Valencia.

Nordic Countries. VLC is only serving Denmark (Copenhagen) amongst these countries. In the other
countries, the airport with best possibilities to be served from Valencia is Göteborg Landvetter, in Sweden,
which is a focus city for Ryanair as is Valencia. However, this route is served by Ryanair from Alicante
airport, which is quite close to Valencia. Moreover, Alicante-Elche handled almost 2,000,000 passengers
between Valencia and the Nordic countries; so, it’d be more desirable to serve another market.

Russia. The next most promising route is St. Petersburg. It’s one of the so-called “unserved routes” for
VLC in anna.aero; this connection had 112,873 searches on SkyScanner in 2016 and there isn’t any direct
connection yet. Furthermore, Ural airlines (which operates mainly A320) recently announced is ready to
increase connections from St Petersburg after being granted rights on several European routes, and it’s
ready to serve Valencia and Palma de Mallorca in Spain (Flight Global, 2017). Also, St Petersburg is
currently underserved from Alicante, with only 9,000 passengers in 2017.

Russian tourism reached its peak in 2013 with around 1.5 million Russian tourists visiting Spain, mostly in
Catalonia, Valencia, Madrid and the islands. There was a decrease of 40% in the number of tourists after
2014 due to the Ruble instability and political conflicts between the two countries. Tourism’s been
increasing significantly since due to the collaboration between both countries to speed up formalities and
promote destinations (La Vanguardia, 2017; EFE, 2017).

The airlines to be approached are:

- Aeroflot Russian Airlines: is offering high number of seats from both ALC and VLC to Moscow.
- Ural Airlines: has been granted rights to serve VLC from Pulkovo Airport, one of its hubs.
- Vueling: is flying from Alicante to Moscow and St Petersburg, but offering low capacity.
- Siberian Airlines: has Pulkovo Airport as a hub and serves Moscow from VLC.
 4 APPENDIX
4.1 MONTHLY FORECASTS
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0

Mar-18
Jan-04
Nov-04

Mar-08
Jan-09
Nov-09

Mar-13
Jan-14
Nov-14

Jan-19
Nov-19
Sep-05

May-07

Sep-10

May-12

Sep-15

May-17

Sep-20

May-22
Jul-06

Jul-11

Jul-16

Jul-21
Passengers Domestic traffic forecast

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Nov-09

Jan-19
Jan-04
Nov-04

Mar-08
Jan-09

Mar-13
Jan-14
Nov-14

Mar-18

Nov-19
Sep-05

Sep-10

Sep-15

Sep-20
May-07

May-12

May-17

May-22
Jul-06

Jul-11

Jul-16

Jul-21

Passengers UE-Schengen traffic forecast

120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jan-04

Mar-08
Jan-09

Mar-13
Jan-14

Mar-18
Jan-19
Nov-04

Nov-09

Nov-14

Nov-19
Sep-20
Sep-05

Sep-10

Sep-15
May-07

Jul-11
May-12

May-17

May-22
Jul-06

Jul-16

Jul-21

Historical UK traffic forecast

4.2 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

Forecasts have been developed using the methodology of trend analysis, because the only variables found
which have been forecasted by official organisation like the IMF or the Spanish government are the GDP
and unemployment rate (for domestic traffic) and these were not good enough to establish a regression
2
(𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 0.53), reason why the forecasting have been produced using trend projection methodologies. In
the forecasts made in sections 2.1) to 2.3) the “forecast” term refers to the normal results obtained by
Excel using the raw data, and “smoothed” refers to the fact that a exponential smoothing has been used
to give more weight to recent years.
 5 REFERENCES
AENA (2018) Price Guide 2018, basic airport services.
Airports Council International (2016) ACI Guide to World Airport Traffic
Forecasts. Quebec.
CAPA (2017) ‘easyJet launches London Luton-Valencia service’, CAPA
Centre for Aviation, 13 February. Available at:
https://centreforaviation.com/news/easyjet-launches-london-luton-
valencia-service-642384.
CAPA (2017) ‘Hamburg Airport: Ryanair starting new routes from
Hamburg today’, CAPA Centre for Aviation, 29 March. Available at:
https://centreforaviation.com/members/direct-news/hamburg-
airport-ryanair-starting-new-routes-from-hamburg-today-336282.
CAPA (2017) ‘Marseille Airport confirms new winter 2017/18
destinations’, CAPA Centre for Aviation, 31 October. Available at:
https://centreforaviation.com/news/marseille-airport-confirms-new-
winter-201718-destinations-732989.
CAPA (2017) ‘Ryanair launches services from Valencia to Copenhagen
and Glasgow’, CAPA Centre for Aviation, 29 March. Available at:
https://centreforaviation.com/news/ryanair-launches-services-from-
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