Reading Guide 9.2 (Peck pp.

482-492) Name:____KEY_______________

1) “Because of sampling variability…

rarely is the point estimate from a sample exactly equal to the true value of the population characteristic.”

2) What is a confidence interval for a population characteristic? How is it constructed?

An interval of plausible values for the characteristic. It is constructed so that, with a chosen degree of confidence,
the value of the characteristic will be captured between the lower and upper endpoints of the interval.

3) What are some usual choices for confidence levels?

90%, 95%, and 99%

4) What is the definition of the “confidence level”?

The confidence level associated with a confidence interval estimate is the success rate of the method used to
construct the interval.

5) Explain what a 90% confidence interval means:

It is one that is constructed using a method that is, in the long run, successful in capturing the true value of the
population characteristic 90% of the time.

6) Why is only a LARGE-sample confidence interval for π generally used?

Because the sample size needs to be large enough for the sampling distribution of p to be normally distributed.

7) What is the sampling distribution of p when n is large?

 π (1 − π )  π (1 − π )
N  π , 
(Normally distributed with mean π and standard deviation )
 n  n

8) The book give z* for a confidence interval of 95% to be 1.96. It is helpful to memorize the z* values for the
usual confidence intervals. Use the z table to complete the chart below:

Confidence z* value
level
90% 1.645
95% 1.96
98% 2.33
99% 2.58
 π (1 − π ) p(1 − p )
9) Since π is unknown, what can be used in place of ?
n n

10) What is the abbreviated formula for a 95% confidence interval for π?

p(1 − p )
p ± 1.96
n

Note: When writing a confidence interval, “interval notation” is used – the same “interval notation” used in
PreCalc and Calculus. Since the endpoint of the interval are not exact, only parentheses ( ) are used (never
brackets [ ] ).

11) What are the three criterions for using a confidence interval for π?

-np≥10 and n(1-p)≥10

-the sample size is less than 10% of the population size if sampling is without replacement
-the sample can be regarded as a random sample from the population of interest

12) Use the information given in Example 9.4 and the z* from above to find the 98% confidence interval for π =
the true proportion of US adults who believe that affirmative action programs should be continued. Show your
work. (Note: There is a typo in the example → 5.30 should be .530 in their work.)

(.530)(.470)
.530 ± 2.33 = .530 ± .0365374355 = (.493,.567)
1013

13) What happens to the width of the interval as the confidence level increases from 95% to 98%?

The width of the confidence interval increases – the interval gets wider.

14) What temptation should you NEVER yield to?

Saying that there is a probability of x% that the true value of the population characteristic is within the confidence
interval.

15) “The confidence level refers to …

the method used to construct the interval rather than to any particular interval.”
16) What is the general abbreviated formula for a large-sample confidence interval for π?

p (1 − p )
p ± ( z*) where z* is the z critical value
n

17) Why not use a high level of confidence since it gives higher reliability?

Because with higher reliability comes less precision – the interval gets wider,

18) What do many consider to be a reasonable compromise between reliability and precision?

Using a 95% level of confidence.

19) Why is it important to check the conditions for a confidence interval for a population proportion?

These conditions need to be met so that one can be confident that the normal approximation is reasonable.

20) What is pmod?

The proportion of successes after two successes and two failures are added to the sample.

21) What is the formula for calculating pmod?

number of successes + 2
p mod =
n+4

22) Why might one use pmod as the point estimator in a confidence interval?/

Using pmod results in an interval which has an actual confidence level closer to the reported confidence level.

23) What is the format of the prototype confidence interval?

 point estimate   estimated standard 

   
 using a  ± (critical value) deviation of the 
 specified statistic   statistic 
   

24) What is the “standard error”?

The standard error is the estimated standard deviation of the statistic.

25) What is the general formula for the “bound on error of estimation”? Include the variable that represents it.

 standard error 
 
B = (critical value) of the 
 statistic 
 

26) What is the formula for determining the sample size n needed to estimate a population proportion π to within
an amount B with any percent of confidence? (i.e. generalize)

2
 z *
n = π (1 − π ) 
 B 

27) How might one obtain a value of π for this formula?

By either carrying out a preliminary study and using those results or prior knowledge may suggest a reasonable
estimate of π.

28) What should one do if one cannot obtain a value of π for this formula?

Use π = .5 to get a conservatively large value for the required sample size.

29) What should one always do when calculating sample sizes needed?

Always round the number from the formula up.