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Chapter Eight
Statistical Intervals for a Single Sample
Goals of chapter:
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
 Construct and interpret a confidence interval estimate for a single population mean using both the z
and t distributions and single population proportion
 Determine the required sample size to estimate a single population mean or single population
proportion within a specified margin of error

8.1 Confidence Interval on the Mean of a Normal Distribution, Variance known

Recall that Point and Interval Estimates

 A point estimate is a single number.
We can estimate a Population Parameter ( Unknown ) with a Sample Statistic
∑𝑥
Mean: 𝜇. The point estimate is the mean 𝑥̅ = 𝑛
∑ 𝑥 2 −𝑛𝑥̅ 2
Variance 𝜎 2 . The point estimate is the variance 𝑆 𝑠 = √ 𝑛−1
𝑥
Proportion 𝑃 . The point estimate is the proportion 𝑝̅ = 𝑛
 A confidence interval
provides additional information about variability
An interval estimate provides more information about a population characteristic than does a point
estimate. Such interval estimates are called confidence intervals

8.1.1 Develpoment of the Confidence Interval Estimate and its Basic Properties:

Suppose that a sample of size n selected randomlly from a normal distribution with unknown mean 𝜇 and
known standard deviation 𝜎. From the results of chapter 7 we know that the sample mean is normally
σ
distributed with mean 𝜇 and standard deviation 𝑛. We may standardized the sample mean using that fact
√
that
(𝑥̅ − 𝜇)√𝑛
𝑍=
𝜎
The random variable 𝑍 has a standard normal distribution.
In General
 A confidence interval estimate for the population mean 𝜇 is an interval of the form

𝑙≤𝜇≤𝑢

where the end points 𝑙 & 𝑢 are computed from the sample data

 There is a probability of 1 − 𝛼 of selecting a sample for which the C.I will contain the true value of 𝜇
 The endpoints or bounds 𝑙 & 𝑢 are called the lower and the upper confidence limits and
 1 − 𝛼 is called the confidence coefficient
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(𝑥̅ −𝜇)√𝑛
In our problem, because 𝑍 = has a normal distribution , we may write
σ
(𝑥̅ − 𝜇)√𝑛
𝑃 (−𝑧𝛼 ≤ ≤ 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 − 𝛼
2 𝜎 2
Manuipulate the quantities inside the brackets, this results in
𝜎 𝜎
𝑃 (𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝛼 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼 ) = 1 − 𝛼
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
𝛼
where 𝑧𝛼 is the upper 100 percentage point of the standard normal distribution
2 2

Confidence Interval on the Mean, Variance Known

If 𝑋̅ is the sample mean of a random sample of size 𝑛 from a normal population with known variance, a
(1 − 𝛼)100% confidence interval for 𝜇 is given by
𝜎 𝜎
𝑥̅ − 𝑧𝛼 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 𝑥̅ + 𝑧𝛼
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛

Meaning ( interpreting) of the Confidence Interval

Assume that you have a population with mean µ = 368 and standard deviation σ = 15. If you take a sample of size 25

1. Assume that you have a population has µ = 368 and σ = 15.

2. If you take a sample of size n = 25 you know
a) The C. I for the true mean given by
15
368 ± 1.96 ( ) = (362.12, 373.88)
√25
The meaning if this C.I is: this C.I contains 95% of the sample means

b) What can you do when you don’t know µ? you use x to estimate µ
If x = 362.3 the interval is 362.3 ± 1.96 * 15 / 25 = (356.42, 368.18)
Since 356.42 ≤ µ ≤ 368.18 the interval based on this sample makes a correct statement about µ.

But what about the intervals from other possible samples of size 25?

 In practice you only take one sample of Sample # X Lower Limit Upper Limit Contain µ?
size n
 In practice you do not know µ so you do 1 362.3 356.42 368.18 Yes
not know if the interval actually contains µ 369.5 363.62 375.38 Yes
2
 However you do know that 95% of the
3 360 354.12 365.88 No
intervals formed in this manner will
contain µ 4 362.12 356.24 368 Yes

 Thus, based on the one sample, you 5 373.88 368 379.76 Yes
actually selected you can be 95%
confident your interval will contain µ (this is a 95% confidence interval)
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An interval gives a range of values:

 Takes into consideration variation in sample statistics from sample to sample.
 Based on observation from One sample.
 Gives information about closeness to unknown population parameters.
 Stated in terms of level of confidence.
 Never 100% sure.

Interval and Level of Confidence

Confidence Level and Precision of Estimate:

 If 𝑋̅ is used as an estimate of the population mean 𝜇, we can be (1 − 𝛼)100% confident that the error

|𝑥̅ − 𝜇|
will not exceed a specified amount 𝑒

 The length of the interval = 2𝑒

 The length of the interval is a musure of the precision of the estimate.
 Half – length of the C.I is the bound of the error in estimation of the parameter.

Margin of Error (e):

 The amount added and subtracted to the point estimate to form the confidence interval
𝑧𝛼 𝜎
2
𝑒=
√𝑛
Factors Affecting Margin of Error
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Cases for Confidence Interval for the true population mean (μ):

Case I(Confidence Interval on the mean, variance known) :

A (1-) 100% Confidence Interval for μ, when (σ known)

Assumptions
1. Population standard deviation σ is known
2. Population is normally distributed
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝑧∝
2 √𝑛

Case II (8.1.5 large – sample Confidence Interval):

A (1-) 100% Confidence Interval for μ, when (σ unknown) and the sample size is large
Assumptions
1. Population standard deviation σ is unknown
2. Sample size large  n  30 

𝑠
𝑥̅ ± 𝑧∝
2 √𝑛

Case III (8.2.1 Confidence Interval on the mean on a Normal distribution, variance unknown):

A (1-) 100% Confidence Interval for μ, when (σ unknown) and the sample size is small
Assumptions
1. Population standard deviation σ is unknown
2. Population is normally distributed
3. Sample size small  n  30 

𝑠
𝑥̅ ± 𝑡∝,𝑛−1
2 √𝑛

Theorem:
Let 𝑋1 𝑋2 , 𝑋3 , … , 𝑋𝑛 , be a random sample from a normal distribution with unknown mean and
𝑥 2 −𝑛𝑥̅ 2
unknown variance and 𝑠 2 = ∑ , then
𝑛−1
The random variable
(𝑥̅ − 𝜇)√𝑛
𝑇=
s
has a t – student distribution with degrees of freedom 𝑑. 𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1
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8.2.1 Student t – distribution:

It has bell shape like normal distribution. It has the same properties as the normal distribution,
mean = median = mode. And it is depend on a dgree of feedom (𝑑. 𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1).
As n increases, t – destribution will be z – normal distribution.

dgrees of feedom
Number of observations that are free to vary after sample mean has been calculated

Example: Suppose the mean of 3 numbers is 8.0

Let X1 = 7, X2 = 8. What is X3?

If the mean of these three values is 8.0,
then X3 must be 9 (i.e., X3 is not free to vary)

Here, n = 3, so degrees of freedom = n – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2

(2 values can be any numbers, but the third is not free to vary for a given mean)

Example:
Use the t – student table to find the followng:
1. t0.05,13 =
2. t0.95,13 =
3. P(T12 < 1.34) =

Example
Assume a sample of size n has been obtained from a normal distribution. Determine the critical value from
a t – distribution when you wish to estimate the population mean in each of the following cases:
1. confidence coefficient = 0.95 and n = 26
2. confidence coefficient = 0.90 and n = 31
3. confidence coefficient = 0.98 and n = 15
4. confidence coefficient = 0.80 and n = 32
5. confidence coefficient = 0.99 and n = 19
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Exemple:
Ten measurements of impact energy (J) on specimens of A238 steel cut at 60°C are as follows:

64.1 64.7 64.5 64.6 64.5 64.3 64.6 64.8 64.2 64.3

The impact energy is normally distributed with standard deviation 1J.

1. Find a 95% CI for , the mean impact energy

2. In part 1 above, do you need any assumptions, if yes what, if no why.
3. Depend on part 1 above, If you claim that the ture population mean equal 63. Is your claim true?
Explain?
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Example:
A sample of 11 circuits from a large normal population has a mean resistance of 2.20 ohms. We know from
past testing that the population standard deviation is 0.35 ohms.

1. Determine a 95% confidence interval for the true mean resistance of the population.
2. In part 1 above, do you need any assumptions, if yes what, if no why.
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Example:
A machine produces metal rods in an automobile suspension system. A random sample of size 15 rods is
selected and the diameter is measured. The results ( in millimeters) as follows :

8.28 8.25 8.2 8.23 8.24

8.21 8.26 8.26 8.2 8.25
8.23 8.23 8.19 8.28 8.24

1. Calculate a 95% confidence interval on the mean rod diameter.

2. Do you need any assumptions, if yes what, if no why.
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8.1.2 Dermining the required sample size:

If 𝑋̅ is used as an estimate of the population mean 𝜇, we can be (1 − 𝛼)100% confident that the error

|𝑥̅ − 𝜇|
will not exceed a specified amount 𝑒

The sample size depend on:

1. the cost.
2. the confidence level.
3. the margin error.
4. the standard deviation.

Required sample size, σ known:

z2 / 2  2  z / 2  
2

n  
e2  e 

Required sample size, σ unknown:

If unknown, σ can be estimated when using the required sample size formula
 Use a value for σ that is expected to be at least as large as the true σ
 Select a pilot sample and estimate σ with the sample standard deviation, s
Then
2
z2 S 2  z S 
n   / 22    / 2 
e  e 

Example:
Suppose that it is known that the population standard deviation is 40. if you wish to estimate the population
mean using a 95% confident that the error in estimating the true population mean to be within ± 2.5. what
sample size will be required?
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Example:
A decision maker is interested in estimating the mean of a population based on a random sample. He wants
the confidence level to be 90% and the total length of the confidence interval on the mean to beat most 0.6.
He does not know what the population standard deviation is, so he has selected the following pilot sample:

8.8 4.89 10.98 15.11 14.79

6.93 1.27 9.06 14.38 5.65
7.24 3.24 2.61 6.09 6.91

Based on the pilot sample, how many more items be sampled so that the decision maker can make the
desired confidence interval estimate?
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8.4: Confidence Intervals for the Population Proportion:

𝑋
An interval estimate for the population proportion 𝑃 = can be calculated by adding an allowance
𝑁
𝑥
for uncertainty to the sample proportion 𝑝̂ =
𝑛
Recall that:
the distribution of the sample proportion is approximately normal if the sample size is large 𝑛𝑝 ≥ 5
and 𝑛(1 − 𝑝) ≥ 5, with
1. Mean: 𝜇𝑝 = 𝑝
𝑝(1−𝑝)
2. standard deviation: 𝜎𝑝 = √
𝑛
𝑋
But 𝑃 = is unknown, We will estimate standard deviation with sample data
𝑁

𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝̂ )
𝑠𝑝̂ = √
𝑛
Then,
A (1-) 100% Confidence Interval for the true proportion is given by:

𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝̂ )
𝑝̂ ± 𝑧𝛼 √
2 𝑛
where
 z is the standard normal value for the level of confidence desired.
𝑥
 𝑝̂ = is the sample proportion.
𝑛
 n is the sample size.
Note:
Increases in the sample size reduce the width of the confidence interval

Finding the Required Sample Size for proportion problems

𝑝(1−𝑝)
1. The of error: 𝑒 = 𝑧𝛼 √ 𝑛
2
z2 /2 p (1  p)
2. The sample size: n
e2
P can be estimated with a pilot sample, if necessary (or use P = .50)
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Example:
A random sample of 500 people shows that 25 are left-handed.

1. Form a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of left-handers

2. Whatis the assumptions needc to find the C.I in part 1 above
3. Form a 95% confidence interval for the number of the left-handers if the size of the population is
12343219
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Example:
In a random sample of 85 automobile engine crankshaft bearings, 10 have a surface finish that is rougher
than the specifications allow.

1. Construct a 95% two-sided confidence interval for the true proportion of bearings in the population that
exceeds the roughness specification.
2. How large a sample is required if we want to be 95% confident that the error in using the sample
proportion to estimating the ture value p is less than 5%?
3. How large must the sample be if we wish to be at least 95% confident that the error in estimating the
true proportion is less than 2% regardless of the true value of P ?