MATH 52540 STATISTICS

CHAPTERS 10
Introduction to Estimation
Point Estimate
A point estimate is a single value used to estimate a population parameter. e.g 𝑥̅
is a point estimate for 𝜇.
Confidence Interval (CI)
This is a formula that tells us how to use sample data to calculate an interval that
estimates a population parameter.
The Confidence coefficient is the probability that a randomly selected confidence
interval encloses the population parameter. The Confidence level (1-∝) is the
confidence coefficient expressed as a percentage.
The critical value is 𝑧∝
2

Confidence
Level

100(1-α) α α/2
90% 0.1 0.05 1.645
95% 0.05 0.025 1.96
99% 0.01 0.005 2.575

Margin of Error
When data from a simple random sample are used to estimate a population
parameter, the difference between the population parameter and the sample statistic
is an error. The maximum allowable error is the margin of error, denoted by E.
Large sample CI for 𝝁
𝜎
𝑥̅ ± 𝐸, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐸 = 𝑧∝
2 √𝑛
When 𝜎 is unknown and n is large (n≥ 30) use s.
We interpret the CI in this way, “ We can be 100(1-𝛼)% confident that 𝜇 lies
between the lower and upper bounds of the CI.

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Small Sample CI for 𝝁
𝑠
𝑥̅ ± 𝐸, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐸 = 𝑡∝ , 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1
2 √𝑛
Assumptions: A random sample is selected from a population with a relative
frequency distribution that is approximately normal.
Student T-distribution
𝒙−𝝁
𝒕= 𝒔
√𝒏
is a Student t distribution for all samples of size n. A Student t distribution is
commonly referred to as a t distribution.
Characteristics of the T-distributions.
1. The Student t distribution has the same general symmetric bell shape as the
standard normal distribution, but has more variability (with wider
distributions), as we expect with small samples.
2. The Student t distribution has a mean of t = 0 (just as the standard normal
distribution has a mean of z = 0).
3. The standard deviation of the Student t distribution varies with the sample
size, but it is greater than 1 (unlike the standard normal distribution, which
has s = 1).
4. As the sample size n gets larger, the Student t distribution gets closer to the
standard normal distribution.
Finding the sample size to estimate a population mean
𝒛∝𝝈
𝒏 = ( 𝟐 )𝟐
𝑬
Factors Affecting the length of the CI
1. The larger the Confidence level, the wider the CI
2. The larger the standard deviation, the wider the CI.
3. The larger the sample size, the narrower the CI.

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Large sample CI for p

𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
𝑝̂ ± 𝐸, 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝐸 = 𝑧∝ √
2 𝑛

Finding the sample size to estimate a population proportion.

When an estimate 𝑝̂ is known:
𝒛∝
𝟐 𝟐
𝒏=( ̂̂
) 𝒑𝒒
𝑬
When no estimate 𝑝̂ is known:

𝒛∝
𝟐 𝟐
𝒏=( ) 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
𝑬

CHAPTER 11 Introduction to Hypothesis Testing&

CHAPTER 12 Inferences about a Population
Basics of Hypothesis Testing
A hypothesis is a claim about a property of a population. A hypothesis test is a
procedure for testing a claim about a property of a population.
Null Hypothesis( 𝑯𝟎 )
A theory about the value of a population parameter been equal to some claimed
value. (uses =, ≤, ≥).
Alternative Hypothesis (𝑯𝒂, 𝑯𝟏 )
A theory that contradicts the null Hypothesis (uses ≠, <, >).
Test Statistic
A sample statistic used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis
Rejection Region
The numerical values of the test statistics for which the null hypothesis will be
rejected. The size of the rejection region is ∝ which is the level of significance.

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Type I error
The mistake of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true. 𝑷(𝑻𝒚𝒑𝒆 𝑰 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓) =∝
Type II error
The mistake of failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false.
𝑷(𝑻𝒚𝒑𝒆 𝑰𝑰 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓) = 𝜷
P-value
This is the probability of getting a value of the test statistic that is at least as
extreme as the test statistics obtained from the sample data.

Two-tailed, left-tailed and Right-tailed test. (Triola)

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Triola

Testing a claim About a Population Mean (𝝁)

𝐻0 𝐻
𝜇=a 𝜇≠ Two-tailed test
𝜇 ≤a 𝜇> Right- tailed test
𝜇≥ 𝜇< Left- tailed test
Procedures for a Hypothesis Test.
1. Identify the claim
2. Identify the null and alternative hypothesis
3. Identify the level of significance 𝛼.
4. Find the critical values and rejection regions. (If n≥ 30 𝑜𝑟 𝜎 is known, use
standard normal distribution. If n< 30 or 𝜎 is unknown use t-distribution
5. Find the test statistic (using formulas from table 8-2 above)
6. i. Make a Decision:
a) If p-value≤ 𝛼 Reject 𝐻0
b) If p-value>α FTR 𝐻0

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6ii Compare the test statistic to the critical values.
7. Interpret decision in the context of the question.

Testing a claim About a Population proportion (𝒑):

𝐻0 𝐻
𝑝=a 𝑝≠ Two-tailed test
𝑝 ≤a 𝑝> Right- tailed test
𝑝≥ p< Left- tailed test
Procedures for a Hypothesis Test
1. Identify the claim
2. Identify the null and alternative hypothesis
3. Identify the level of significance 𝛼.
4. Find the critical values and rejection regions.
5. Find the test statistic (using formula from table 8-2 above)
6. i. Make a Decision:
c) If p-value≤ 𝛼 Reject 𝐻0
d) If p-value>α FTR 𝐻0
6ii Compare the test statistic to the critical values.
7. Interpret decision in the context of the question

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