Handout 2

Statistics 132

2. The Case of Single Sample

2.1 Inferences about a Population Proportion

BINOMIAL TEST

The population proportion is a parameter of interest of frequent interest in research and

decision-making activities. A market analyst may wish to know the proportion of families
in a certain area who have cable TV. A public health official may be interested in knowing
the proportion of school-age children who have been immunized against some childhood
disease.

Data: We observe the outcome of n independent repeated Bernoulli trials.

Assumptions
1. The data consist of a sample of the outcomes of n repetitions of some process.
2. The outcome of each trial can be classified as a “success” or a “failure”. These
designations are purely arbitrary. The number of successes B is the number of
outcomes having a given characteristic.
3. The n trials are independent.
4. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial. We
use p to designate the proportion of the population having the characteristic of
interest.

Procedure: To test 𝐻𝑜 : 𝑝 = 𝑝0 vs. 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 > 𝑝0 , 𝑝 < 𝑝0 , 𝑝 ≠ 𝑝0

where 𝑝0 is some specified number, 0 < 𝑝0 < 1
1. Let B = number of successes
𝐵 = ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝜓𝑖 where
𝑡ℎ
𝜓𝑖 = { 1 𝑖𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 𝐵𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑖 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
2. DECISION CRITERION
a. For 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 > 𝑝0 at 𝛼 level of significance
Reject 𝐻𝑜 if 𝐵 ≥ 𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) where 𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) is the upper 𝛼 percentile point
of the binomial distribution with sample size n and 𝑝 = 𝑝0. Hence, 𝑃𝐻𝑜 (𝐵 ≥
𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 )) = 𝛼.
 b. For 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 < 𝑝0 at 𝛼 level of significance
Reject 𝐻𝑜 if 𝐵 ≤ 𝑐(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) where 𝑐(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) is the lower 𝛼 percentile point
of the binomial distribution with sample size n and 𝑝 = 𝑝0. Hence, 𝑃𝐻𝑜 (𝐵 ≥
𝑐(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 )) = 𝛼.

c. For 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 ≠ 𝑝0 at 𝛼 level of significance

Reject 𝐻𝑜 if 𝐵 ≥ 𝑏(𝛼1 , 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) or 𝐵 ≤ 𝑐(𝛼2 , 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) where 𝑏(𝛼1 , 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) is the
upper 𝛼1 percentile point and 𝑐(𝛼2 , 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) is the lower 𝛼2 of the binomial
distribution with sample size n and 𝑝 = 𝑝0 and 𝛼1 + 𝛼2 = 𝛼. Hence,
𝑃𝐻𝑜 (𝐵 ≥ 𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 )) + 𝑃𝐻𝑜 (𝐵 ≥ 𝑐(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 )) = 𝛼1 + 𝛼2 = 𝛼

USE TABLE A.2

Remarks
1. We see that when 𝐻𝑜 is true, i.e., 𝑝 = 𝑝0 , the statistic B has a binomial distribution
with parameters n and 𝑝0 . Thus, the critical constant 𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) is chosen so that
the probability of rejecting 𝐻𝑜 when it is true is 𝛼. Also, without further
assumptions on the underlying distribution from which the dichotomous data
emanate, the distribution of B is binomial. Thus, the test based on B is a
distribution-free test of 𝐻𝑜 .
2. Because B has a discrete distribution, we can find the critical constants
𝑏(𝛼, 𝑛, 𝑝0 ) only for certain values of 𝛼, the natural levels.

Large Sample Approximation

𝐵−𝐸𝐻0 (𝐵) 𝐵−𝑛𝑝0
Let 𝐵 ∗ = =
√𝑉𝑎𝑟𝐻𝑜 (𝐵) √𝑛𝑝0 (1−𝑝0

when 𝐻𝑜 is TRUE, the statistic B* has an asymptotic (n →  ) N(0,1) distribution, that is,
B*  N(0,1) as n → 

Hence the normal theory approximation for the test of 𝐻𝑜 : 𝑝 = 𝑝0

vs. 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 > 𝑝0 is reject Ho if 𝐵 ∗ ≥ 𝑧𝛼
where 𝑧𝛼 is the upper 𝛼 percentile of the N(0,1) distribution
vs. 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 < 𝑝0 is reject Ho if 𝐵 ∗ ≤ −𝑧𝛼
vs. 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 ≠ 𝑝0 is reject Ho if |𝐵 ∗ | ≥ 𝑧𝛼⁄2

USE TABLE A.1

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Example 2.1 Consider the case n = 10 and suppose we want to test 𝐻0 : 𝑝 = 0.25 vs. 𝐻𝑎 : 𝑝 <
0.25. To obtain the critical value c(𝛼, n=10, 𝑝0 = 0.25), we follow the procedure below:

Suppose 𝛼 = 0.2440. From the table we find

P0.25 ( B  2) = 0.7560 which implies that P0.25 ( B  1) = 0.2240
Therefore c(  =0.2440, n=10, po=0.25) = 1. That is, we reject 𝐻𝑜 at 𝛼 =0.2440
if B  1.

Exercise 2.1. Find:

1. P0.70 ( B  4); n=10

2. P0.80 ( B  5); n=8
3. P0.90 ( B  6); n=9

2.2 Examples

1. In a study of the effects of stress, an experimenter taught 18 college students 2

different methods to tie the same knot. Half of the subjects (randomly selected from a
group of 18) learned method A first, and half learned method B first. Later - after a 4-
hour examination each subject was asked to tie a knot. The prediction was that stress
would induce regression, i.e., that the subjects would revert to the first-learned
method of tying the knot. Each subject was categorized according to whether he used
the knot-tying method he learned first or the one he learned second, when asked to tie
the knot under stress. At the end of the experiment, it was found that 16 subjects tied
the knot using the first method learned. Is there reason to believe that stress really
induces regression? Use 𝛼 = 0.05.

2. It is estimated that at least half of the men who currently undergo an operation to
remove prostate cancer suffer from a particular undesirable side effect. In an effort to
reduce the likelihood of this side effect, FDA studied a new method of performing the
operation. Out of the 19 operations, only 3 men suffered the unpleasant side effect. Is
it safe to conclude the new method of operating is effective in reducing side effect?
Use 𝛼 = 0.05.

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3. Under simple Mendelian inheritance, a cross between plants of two particular
genotypes may be expected to produce progeny, one-fourth of which are “dwarf” and
three-fourths of which are “tall”. In an experiment to determine if the assumption of
simple Mendelian inheritance is reasonable in a certain situation, a cross results in
progeny having 234 dwarf plants and 682 tall plants. If “class 1” denotes “tall”, then
po=3/4, perform an appropriate two-tailed test of hypothesis. Use 𝛼 = 0.05.

2.3 An Estimator for the Probability of Success

The estimator of the probability of success, 𝑝, associated with the test statistic B is 𝑝̂ =
𝐵⁄ . The statistic 𝑝̂ is simply the observed relative frequency of success in n Bernoulli trials
𝑛
satisfying the assumptions of the test. Thus, 𝑝̂ qualifies as a natural estimator of 𝑝, the
unknown probability of success in a single Bernoulli trial.

1⁄
The quantity [𝑝̂ (1 − 𝑝̂ )/𝑛] 2 is a consistent estimator for the standard deviation of the
point estimator 𝑝̂ .

2.4 A Confidence Interval for the Probability of Success (Clopper- Pearson)

A two-sided (1-  )100% confidence interval (CI) for p is given by (pL(𝛼), pU(𝛼) ) since we
have P { pL(𝛼) < p < pU(𝛼) }  1-  .

USE TABLE A.3

𝑝̂(1−𝑝̂) 1⁄2
For large n, the (1-  )100% CI for p is (𝑝̂ ∓ 𝑧𝛼⁄2 [ ] ).
𝑛

Note that 𝑝̂ is the midpoint of the approximate confidence intervals for 𝑝̂ . However, this
is not true in general for the confidence intervals for p given by Table A.3.

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Exercise 2.2 Do the appropriate test for each item.

1. A supermarket is presently closed all day Sunday. They have made an extensive study of
the local situation and determined that it will be worthwhile to start opening on Sunday
only if more than 25% of their present potential customers state that they would do their
regular shopping there on Sunday if the market were open. A random sample of 10
households in the immediate vicinity are interviewed with regard to their shopping habits
and preferences. Each of the 10 is asked about the proposed availability of Sunday
shopping and 4 respond favorably. Should the market open on Sundays? Use 𝛼 = 0.05.

2. Stanton investigated the problem of paroling criminal offenders. He studied the behavior
of all male criminals paroled from New York’s correctional institutions to original parole
supervision. The parolees were observed for three years following their releases or until
they exhibited some delinquent parole behavior. In a study involving a very large number
of subjects, Stanton considered criminals convicted of crimes other than first- or second-
degree murder. He found that approximately 60% of these parolees did not have any
delinquent behavior during the 3 years following their releases. After 5 years he sampled
another group of paroled murderers and found out that 56 of the 65 murderers had no
delinquent parole behavior. Is there reason to believe that there is a change in the
proportion of murderers who do not exhibit delinquent parole behaviors? Use 𝛼 = 0.05.

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