Jornada de Difusión del Proyecto

“Modelo Avanzado de Interacción entre Usos del Suelo y Sistemas de Transporte “ (TRA2012-37659)

Urban Form, Mobility and

Accessibility: Integral
assessment of urban policies

Pierluigi Coppola
Università di Roma “Tor Vergata”, Italy

Santander, 25 Marzo 2015

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 Outline

 Land-Use / Transport Interaction (LUTI) models:

overview and aims

 Integral assessment of sustainable transport

policies

 An application to Rome (Italy)

 Land Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI)
• Transport is a derived demand resulting from patterns of economic
activity & the interactions between them

Costs Costs
and and
Location of congestion
Transport
congestion Location of
Households System Employment,
Education, Retail

• Transport influences location choice - changes in accessibility or

congestion make places more/less attractive
Note: We are concerned with the activity at the location, not the land itself
 The Land Use / Transport cycle
• The circular dependence between spatial distribution of activities ,
travel demand and network performances (transport costs ) is
referred to as the Land-Use / Transport Cycle

• LUTI models aims at simulating the feedback of transport on the

activities systems

• Several feedbacks are possible  several LUTI modelling

approaches
Activities
Spatial ACTIVITY SYSTEM
TRANSPORT SYSTEM
distribution
• Demand (OD
matrices)

• Supply (network Transport

performances) costs

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 First generation of LUTI Modelling
• The first generation of LUTI models strongly relates to
‘traditional’ four stage modelling

• Unlike four-stage modelling, there is no single approach to

Land Use modelling

• Each package available takes its own approach, though

many have strongly related concepts

Note: this presentation will concentrate on the STIT-

INTERLAND approach; other approaches to LUTI modelling
exist, but many principles are similar
 First generation of LUTI Modelling
• The first generation of LUTI models strongly relates to ‘traditional’
four stage modelling
• Unlike four-stage modelling, there is no single approach to Land
Use modelling; though many have strongly related concepts
Projected housing/
employment
1. Trip Generation
In VERY simplistic x Trip Rates = Trips
terms, the Land Use
component
replaces this box
2. Distribution Based on O-D costs and trip
Distribution attractions or constraints

LOGIT-based selection based on

3. Mode Choice Mode Choice composite costs

Optimisation of time and

4. Routing Routing money cost on network
 Second (and third) generation of LUTI modelling
• Representation of key ‘actors’ and markets, and their
decisions:
- Developers: whether to develop new land (and when)
- Employers: where to locate (economic link: how many jobs are created)
- Residents: where to live, and where to work
- Transport providers: what transport linkages are provided
- Government: influences all the actors and markets through investment,
regulation and pricing (taxation)

• Aggregate vs. disaggregate (i.e. microsimulation)

approaches
 Second (and third) generation of LUTI modelling
•Key actors
•Households
•Firms
•Developers
•Government
•Markets Firms

•Housing/land
• jobs
• transport
• Choices
• Location
• Firms/jobs
• Buildings
•Policies
•Interactions
•Internal
•External (i.e. w.r.t. Click to edit Master title style
Source: Waddell (2000) 8
transports system) 8
 Aims of LUTI models
1. Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)

 Cost Benefits Analysis

2. Assessing wider effects of transportation

policies

 Integral assessment
 Aims of LUTI models

 Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)

Cost Benefits Analysis

 Assessing wider effects of transportation policies

 Integral assessment
 -15% - -2%
Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)
-2% - 2%
percentage variation of trips generated and attracted on Public
2% - 15%
Transport in the zones served by the new lines
> 15%

Variazione percentuale
della poplazione

% variation of activities
< -15%

-15% - -2%
# of trips attracted by new lines
-2% - 2%
# of trips generated by new lines
2% - 15%
> 15% Click to edit Master title style
 Aims of LUTI models

 Better forecasting of travel demand (long-term)

Cost Benefits Analysis

 Assessing wider effects of transportation policies

 Integral assessment
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies

1. effects arising from markets enlargement

2. effects arising from markets competition

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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies

1. effects arising from markets enlargement

2. effects arising from markets competition

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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
• effects arising from markets enlargement due to improved
accessibility experienced by businesses and populations; typically
seen as “positive effects” (referred to as Wider Economic Benefits)
• e.g. growth of:
- GDP
- employment
- competitiveness
- tourism
...

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Crossrail Link – London (2017)
 Crossrail Link – Londra (2017)

 21 Km tunnel under the city center of London – 10 new

underground stations
 East-West connection between Paddington and Liverpool Street
train station; connection to Heathrow airport, the Canary Wharfs,
and the city of London
 Investiment cost : 14,8 £bn (approx. 18,2 Billion Euro)
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Crossrail Link: ‘Conventional’ Cost Benefit analysis

Direct benefits
• travel time savings
• congestion
Externalities
• pollutant emissions
• road safety

VAN (£bn) B/C ratio

'Conventional' Cost-Benefit Analysis 9,9 2,76

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 Crossrail Link: integral assessment of wider effects

Wider Economic Benefits accessibility to job increase

• Move to More Productive Jobs (M2MPJ);

• Pure Agglomeration (Pag);
• Increase in Labor Force participation (LFP)
• Impacts on Imperfect Competition (IC)

+100.000 new jobs in the Greater London; VAN (£bn) B/C ratio
'Conventional'
+1,5 milionCost-Benefit
people withAnalysis" 9,9City, West-End
access within 45 minutes to the 2,76e the
Integral assessment
Canary Wharfs of wider economic benefits 18 5,87
Assessing wider effects of transportation policies

1. effects arising from markets enlargement

2. effects arising from markets competition

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Assessing wider effects of transportation policies
• effects arising from markets competition , which may be positive
but also negative, the weaker may succumb
e.g. competition for housing can mean that lower-income households get forced
away from places served by transport investments that were intended to help
them

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J.E. Millais (1845) - “Pizarro seizing the Inca of Peru”
 Social impacts of transport policies
 Lack of consolidated methodologies and Guidelines
 Transport Equity is connected to accessibility and participation into
activities (capabilities)
Activities Accessibility poverty line
participation

Segmento di popolazione e/o

popolazione residente in una zona

Accessibility
 EU Cost Action (TU1042) on Transport Equity Assessment (TEA)
www.teacost.eu
Integral assessment: the three spheres of
sustainability

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 Outline

 Land-Use / Transport Interaction (LUTI) models:

overview and aims

 Integral assessment of sustainable transport

policies

 An application to Rome (Italy) of integral analysis to

assess the sustainability of different form of
integrated urban and transport deveopment
 Urban form, travel behavior and sustainability

 The debate on what impacts on cities sustainability do have

a particular urban form , density threshold or activities
distribution still undergoing (Jenks and Jones, 2010;
Echenique et al., 2012)

 Three specific urban structures have been studied mostly in

literature:
 Compact development
 Urban Sprawl
 TOD (Transit Oriented Development)

 Studies dealing with the influence of urban form on travel

behavior provide ambivalent results
 Urban form, travel behavior and sustainability

Sustainable Unsustainable
• •
Compact

Limiting land consumption Traffic congestion and their

• Reducing travelled distances environmental impacts
• Increasing accessibility • Gentrification
Polycentric urban form
• Social exclusion

( e.g. Newman and Kenworthy, 1999; Næss, ( e.g. Breheny, 1997; de Roo and Miller
2013) 2000)

• Increasing public transport use • Increasing land and property prices

• Reducing car use
TOD

• Stimulating non-motorized travel

( e.g. Cervero et al., 2002)
(e.g. Chatman, 2013)

• Reducing density in congested area • Increasing travelled distances and their

Sprawl

• Balancing property market environmental impacts

• Inducing auto-oriented lifestyles
• Land consumption
• Higher urban management costs
( e.g. Burchell et al. 1998 )
(e.g. Westerink et al. 2013)
Application to the study case of Rome
The study area (1)
 2.8 million inhabitants (1,285.3 km2)
 1.1 millions jobs
 552,000 commuting trips in the morning peak hour
 Strongly mono-centric urban form
 Population and activities mainly located along radial roads

Population density Jobs density

Application to the study case of Rome
The study area (2)
 Two radial metro lines 36 km with a
single interchange in Termini central
station
 Seven regional rail lines connect the
surrounding urban areas to the city
center
 Very high level of car ownerships (>
0.7 cars/persons)
 Highly congested road network
 Access restriction in the city center
Application to the study case of Rome
The methodology

Existing city plans,

data, assumptions SCENARIO SETTING

LUTI Models SIMULATION

Economic,
Environmental ASSESSMENT
and Social MoE’s
Scenarios setting
Reference scenario : the City Master Plan (CMP)
Centralità # jobs
• Polycentric development of Rome acilia madonnetta 8 790
to decongest the city centercentralità alitalia magliana 2 458
cesano anagnina romanina 8 823
Regional
bufalotta 11 156
railways
• New dense business districtsMetro
(“ cesano 1 753
la storta euro sud 8 125
nuove centralità”) connected to bufalotta
saxa rubra
fiumicino magliana 2 798
the urban railways pietralata
polo tecnologico la storta 3 688
massimina 3 987
ostiense 6 905
• Integration between urban plans
p.te di nona lunghe
massimina
torre spaccata
p.te di nona lunghe 6 609
pietralata 10 465
of delocalization/urban-
alitalia magliana
ostiense
tor vergata

polo tecnologico 22 981

anagnina romanina
regeneration and the transports
fiumicino magliana
euro sud castellacc
ponte mammolo 1 504
saxa rubra 2 506
investments tor vergata 16 244
acilia madonnetta
torre spaccata 3 125
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Location of the new business districts (Centralità) Total 122 577
Scenarios setting
Reference scenario : the City Master Plan (CMP)
New residential and commercial Investments on urban road and
floor space public transport networks

+ 76 km di metro
+ 11.6 million mq2 floor space + 94 stations
Scenarios setting
Assumptions on urban development:
 total floor space development same as CMP, but
 different spatial distribution
Compact scenario TOD scenarios Sprawl scenario

Clustering of high density Activities clustering around Market-led dispersal of mainly

areas in the most central rail and metro station residential activities in the
location of the city catchment areas urban peripheral areas
Scenarios setting
Assumptions on transport network development:

CMP Network Partial Network

Including project already funded

- Line B1 (Bologna-Conca d’Oro)

- Line C ( up to S.Giovanni stop)
- new Light Rail/Tram lines
Scenarios setting

8 scenarios of future urban development

Different transport network

Base network
Partial network Complete network
(2011)

Base scenario (2011) BS

Different distribution

City Master Plan CMP CMP_P CMP_C

of activities

Compact COMPACT_P COMPACT_C

Sprawl SPRAWL_P SPRAWL_C
TOD_A_P
TOD
TOD_B_C
 Scenario simulation: LUTI models

LUTI model simulating the impacts of changing accessibility on the spatial

distribution of residential and economic activity as well as on dwelling prices

Coppola P, Nuzzolo A (2011) Changing accessibility, dwelling price and the spatial distribution of socio-
economic activities. Research in Transportation Economics. 31, (1), 63-71
Assessment: Measures of Effectiveness
Transport and Economic-efficiency

•
•
Polycentric urban form
Number of trip by modes and modal share
Travel times and cost by modes
• Investment and management costs
• …

Environment
• Pollutant emission
• Transport Energy consumption
• Land consumption
• …

Equity and Social Inclusion

• Social distribution of economic benefits
• Social distribution of externalities
• Access to jobs and services
• Housing prices
• ….
Results

Partial network
Results

CMP network
 Results in synthesis …
 Urban development forms have found to differ in their sustainability

 Mobility indicator cannot be conclusive in a transport land use planning

support tool and should be accompanied by accessibility and social
analyses

 Compact development appears to better off others form of spatial

development, for the mono-centric case study of Rome…

 however, compact development might induce increased urban

congestion level and increased dwelling prices in some areas of the city,
which could create social exclusion and segregation of peripheral areas
 Conclusions
• LUTI models are fundamental:
- to better forecast the demand in medium-long term
- to carry out Integral assessment of transport policies

• LUTI models allows wider economic factors to be accounted

for capturing land value, agglomeration and productivity
benefits more explicitly

• LUTI and Accessibility allow to assess social impacts of

transport policies

• LUTI offers opportunity for Land Use planning and Transport

planning to interact
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 Issues and Challenges

• Developing a Land Use model is ‘data hungry’ … but

perhaps datasets are improving, and processing power
making this easier

• Validation of Land Use Model results is not straightforward,

… as with Transport Models

• LUTI ought to capture the link between accessibility to

participation into activities to improve transport equity
assessment and better forecast induced demand
 Thanks for your attention!

Pierluigi Coppola

coppola@ing.uniroma2.it

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