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Weibull parameters for wind speed

distribution in Saudi Arabia

Article in Solar Energy · December 1994

DOI: 10.1016/0038-092X(94)90126-M

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 Solar Energy, Vol. 53, No. 6, pp. 473-479, 1994
Copyright0 1994Ekevier Science Ltd
Pergamon Printed in the USA. All rights reserved
0038-092X/94$6.00 + .OO

003%092X( 94)00081-6

WEIBULL PARAMETERS FOR WIND SPEED

DISTRIBUTION IN SAUDI ARABIA

SHAFIQUR REHMAN,* T. 0. HALAWANI, and TAHIR HUSAIN

Meteorology, Standards & Materials Division, Research Institute, King Fahd University of
Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran-3 126 I, Saudi Arabia

Abstract-The shape and scale parameters of a Weibull density distribution function are calculated for 10
locations in Saudi Arabia. The daily mean wind speed data from 1970 to mid-1990 are used for this purpose.
It is found that the numerical values of the shape parameter vary between I .7 and 2.7, whereas the value
of the scale parameter is found to vary between 3 and 6. It is also concluded from this study that wind data
are very well represented by the Weibull distribution function.

1. INTRODUCTION much attention has been given to the Weibull function

Wind speed frequency distribution is an important pa-
rameter for predicting the energy output of a wind en-
ergy conversion system. During the last two decades,
ample attention was paid toward the development of
an adequate statistical model for describing wind speed
frequency distribution. As seen from the literature,
* ISES Member
because it is found to give a good fit to the observed
wind speed data both at the surface (Wentink, 1976;
Justus, Hargraves, Yalcin, 1976) and in the upper air
(e.g., Baynes and Davenport, 1975). Wentink com-
pared the Weibull functions with other distributions
like Plank’s frequency distribution, Rayleigh distri-
bution, and Gamma distribution in his study of Alas-
kan wind power potential. Justus et al. concluded that
the Weibull distribution gave the best fit to wind speed

Fig. I. Location map of the sites used in this study.

474 S. REHMAN,T. 0. HALAWANI,and T. HUSAIN

Table I. Summarv of dailv averaee wind sneed for all locations analvzed

Years Altitude* Instrument No. daily avg. Mean wind

Location of Data (m) height* (m) wind speed data speed (m/s)

Dhahran 19 22 10 6894 4.42

Riyadh 18 624 10 6483 3.28
Jeddah 19 17 10 6867 3.56
Tabou k 17 771 9 6274 3.05
Gizan 17 5 8 6330 3.51
Al-Jouf 15 562 7 5231 3.76
AI-Wajh 17 22 10 6316 4.28
Gassim 14 648 7 5229 3.02
Medina 17 646 10 6297 3.46
Nejran II 1275 8 429 1 2.71

* Taken from Saudi Arabian Wind Energy Atlas (1986).

data from more than 100 stations of the United States
National Climatic Center. In a study conducted in
Denmark, Petersen et al. ( 198 1) found that Weibull
distribution gave an excellent fit to the wind speed dis-
tribution.
The Weibull function is a two-parameter function,
namely, shape parameter k and scale parameter c. It
is used in this paper for describing the wind speed fre-
quency distribution. There are several methods avail-
able in the literature for the calculation of these two
parameters as stated by Stevens and Smulders ( 1979).
In this study, the shape parameter k is estimated by
the nomogram of Kotel’nikov (Johnson and Kotz,
1970). The scale parameter c is calculated using the
wind speed relationship given in Hennessey (1978).
In this paper, daily average wind data which cover the
period from 1970 to 1990 are used. The details of the
wind data are described, in detail, in Section 3. Section
2 deals with the mathematical formulation of the Wei-
bull density distribution function.
where u is the expected mean wind speed and r is the
gamma function.
As summarized by Stevens and Smulders ( 1979),
the values of k and c can be obtained from the method
of moments, the method of energy pattern factor, the
maximum likelihood method, the Weibull probability
paper method, or by the use of percentile estimators.
Stevens and Smulders calculated the values of both the
parameters using all five methods mentioned above.
They obtain almost the same values with all five meth-
ods. However, in this paper, the authors have adopted
the method described by Hennessey ( 1978) because
of its simplicity and availability of sample mean and
standard deviation values. This method requires the
values of the sample mean wind speed and standard
deviation. Knowing these two values for a sample of
data set, the shape parameter k is conveniently obtained
from the nomogram of Kotel’nikov. The scale param-
eter c is calculated from eqn (3).

3. DESCRIFTION OF OBSERVED WIND DATA

2. WEIBULL DlSTRlBUTlON FUNCTION
The daily observed mean wind speed data is used
The Weibull distribution function, which is a two- for determining the values of Weibull parameters for
parameter function, is expressed mathematically as IO sites in Saudi Arabia. The locations of these sites
follows: are shown in Fig, 1. A summary of all the data sets
analyzed in this study, is given in Table I. The daily
average wind speed data is obtained from the Data
f(u) = (~)(~)ew[
- (F)k] (1)

Table 2. Numerical values of Weibull

where k is the scale parameter, c is the shape parameter, parameters for annual wind speed
and u is the wind speed. The cumulative distribution distribution
function is obtained by integrating eqn ( 1) and takes
Location k c
the form:
Dhahran 2.35 4.98
F(u) = 1 - exp{ -(v/c)“} (2) Riyadh 1.95 3.70
Jeddah 2.35 4.02
Tabouk 2.00 3.44
The mean of the Weibull distribution, i.e., the mean Gizan 2.50 3.96
wind speed, is expressed in terms of the gamma func- Al-Jouf 2.60 4.24
Al-Wajh 2.50 4.83
tion and is given by:
Gassim 1.95 3.41
Medina 2.40 3.91
Nejran 2.05 3.07
u=cr(l+ l/k) (3)
 Weibull parameters 415

15

35 40 46 50 6s
LONGITUDE

Fig. 2. Contour map showing the variation of shape parameter k.

3s -

30

25
w
2
;2
4
20

15

Fig. 3. Contour map showing the variation of scale parameter c.

476 S. REHMAN,T. 0. HALAWANI,and T. HUSAIN

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 C 6 8 10 12

WIND SPEED [m/s) WIND SPEED [m/s)

._

35 -1 TABOUK k = 2.00
c q 3.44

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

WIND SPEED (m/s) WIND SPEED (m/s)

Fig. 4. Wind frequency histograms for Dhahran, Riyadh, Jeddah, and Tabouk. The superimposed solid
curves are the Weibull fit obtained from calculated values of k and c

Processing Center of the King Fahd University of Pe-
troleum and Minerals, Dhahran. This data is well
maintained by the Saudi Arabian Meteorological and
Environmental Protection Administration (MEPA)
and covers the period from 1970 to mid 1990. No data
was collected during 1976. As summarized in Table 1,
at some stations, the data was not collected in 1970,
197 1, and 1972. In 1984, the data was available only
for the first 5 months of the year for all the stations.
In 1990, the data was available only for the first 6
months for the Dhahran, Jeddah, and Riyadh sites. In
calculating the long term averages of the wind speed,
the missing values were not considered.
The Saudi Arabian Wind Energy Atlas ( 1986) re-
ports that the wind sensors are located at a height of
10 m above ground surface at most of the meteoro-
logical data acquisition stations. This height of the sen-
sors is recommended by the World Meteorological Or-
ganization (WMO). At some stations, the sensors are
installed at 7, 8, and 9 m above ground surface. The
monitoring instruments meet the WMO Class-I-spec-
ifications. As noted in the Saudi Arabian Wind Energy
Atlas, the instruments were inspected and cleaned on
a daily basis during strong wind periods. The instru-
ments were maintained using detailed maintenance
procedures on a regular basis once every 3 months. In
order to maintain the WMO standards, the wind sen-
sors were calibrated in the wind tunnel at least once
every 6 months. The surface roughness coefficient, Z0
(dimensionless), varies between 0.10 and 0.4 for
smooth surfaces such as sea, sand, and snow to very
rough surfaces such as urban areas and tall buildings,
respectively.
As noticed from the mean wind speed data, Dhah-
ran observed a maximum mean wind speed of’4.42
m/s while a minimum average wind speed of 2.7
m/s is observed at Nejran. At other locations the av-
erage wind speed lies between 3 m/s and 3.75 m/s.
 Weibull parameters 477

45 I
k = 2.50 AL-JOUF k = 2.60
c = 3.96 c = 4.34

30

t;

h
= 25
2
E 20
LL

is 15

r, 6 8 10 12 0 2 I 6 8 10 12
WIND SPEED (m/s1 WIND SPEED (m/s)

1 GASSIM k q 1.95
c = 3.&l

30

t
$ 25

I
2
2 20
IL

is 15

IO

0
0 2 4 6 8 lo 11 2 6 B 10 12

WIND SPEED (m/s) WIN0 SPEED (m/s1

Fig. 5. Wind frequency histograms for &an, Al-Jouf, Al-Wajh, and Gassim. Superimposed solid curves
are the Weibull fit obtained from calculated values of k and c.

i.e.. greater than 4 at Dhahran, Jeddah (coastal sites),

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The Weibull parameters, namely, shape parameter
k and scale parameter c, are calculated for 10 locations
in Saudi Arabia based on annual and monthly daily
average wind speed data. Table 2 summarizes the nu-
merical values of k and c for all the locations studied
in this paper. It is noticed that the value of the shape
parameter lies around 2.5 in the northern and southern
regions ofthe country, whereas at coastal sites this value
is found to be around 2.35. A lower value of k, i.e.,
1.95, is obtained in and around the central part of the
country. The contour map plotted for the shape pa-
rameter is shown in Fig. 2. This map depicts lower
values of the shape parameter in the central region,
namely, Riyadh and Gassim, and higher values in the
northern and southern regions. Moderate values are
seen in the eastern and western parts of the country.
The scale parameter c is found to have higher values,
and Al-Jouf or AI-Wajh (northern areas). In Riyadh
and Gassim this value lies around 3.5. Variation of
the scale parameter c is shown in Fig. 3. A maximum
value of c equals 4.98 is observed at Dhahran and a
minimum of 3.07 at Nejran. Regions of high, medium,
and low values of the scale parameter are clearly ex-
plained in this figure.
Figures 4, 5, and 6 show the wind speed histograms
of the percent frequency distribution for all 10 loca-
tions. The Weibull curves obtained using the numerical
values of k and c for different locations are superim-
posed on the wind speed histograms. The wind speed
data for Dhahran, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tabouk, Al-Jouf,
Gassim, Medina, and Nejran are very well represented
by the Weibull distribution density function.
The Weibull parameters obtained for the monthly
wind speed data are summarized in Tables 3 and 4 for
Dhahran, Riyadh, Jeddah, Tabouk, Gizan, Al-Jouf,
 S. REHMAN, T. 0. HALAWANI, and T. HUSAIN

c=
418

NAJF \N k = 2.05

1
35 3.07

30 30
2-
z” 25 t
z 25
3 !i
g 20 2 20
B E
>0 15

10 10

0 $ 15
0 2 4 6 8 IO 12 0 2 4 6 a 10 12

WIND SPEED [m/s) WIND SPEED (m/s]

Fig. 6. Wind frequency histograms for Medina and Nejran. Superimposed solid curves are the Weibull fit
obtained from calculated values of k and c.

Al-Wajh, Gassim, Medina, and Nejran. It is observed
that in the eastern and western regions (Dhahran, Jed-
dah, and Medina), k had its maximum value in June
and its minimum in December. In Dhahran, k varies
between 2 and 2.6, in Jeddah it varies between 2.45
and 2.55, and in Medina between 2.15 and 2.8. The
monthly variation of k shows an increasing trend from
January to June and a decreasing trend toward De-
cember for all the locations in the eastern and western
regions of Saudi Arabia. This region also has a maxi-
mum value of k parameter.
In Riyadh and Gassim, the maximum values of k
are noticed in July and June and the minimum values
are noticed in November and December. Over the year,
the shape parameter increases at the start of the year
and, after reaching its maximum in June and July, it
decreases toward the end of the year.
The maximum values of the shape parameter are
found in the month of July for Tabouk, Al-Jouf, and
Al-Wajh cities (in the northern region of the country)
and the minimum values are found in December and
February. In Tabouk and Al-Jouf, the shape parameter
k shows an increasing trend from January to July and
then a decreasing trend towards the end of the year.
In Al-Wajh, k varies between 2.6 and 2.7, and no def-
inite trend is observed. In southern cities, i.e., Gizan
and Nejran, maximum values of k are noticed in Oc-
tober and August, respectively, and minimum values
are noticed in December. The shape parameter in
Nejran show an increase from January to August and
then a decrease toward December.
No definite trends in the variation of the scale pa-
rameter care observed in any city. Certain similarities
in the occurrence of maximum and minimum values
are noticed. In Dhahran, Jeddah, and Medina, the
maximum values are noticed in June and March while
the minimum values are found in the month of Oc-
tober. In Riyadh and Gassim, the maximum is found
in July and May while the minimum is found in Oc-
tober and September, respectively. The northern cities
have the maximum value of scale parameter in March
and April and the minimum in November and De-

Table 3. Numerical values of Weibull parameters for monthly wind speed distribution
for Dhahran. Riyadh, Jeddah, Abouk, and Gizan

Dhahran Riyadh Jeddah Tabouk Gizan

Month k c k c k C k C k C

JAN 2.40 4.11 1.90 3.55 2.10 4.17 1.75 2.92 2.45 3.81
FEB 2.45 4.85 1.85 3.89 2.05 4.27 1.70 3.42 2.45 3.82
MAR 2.55 5.15 2.00 4.31 2.25 4.46 1.90 4.0 I 2.50 3.96
APR 2.40 5.06 1.95 3.93 2.25 4.35 2.10 4.26 2.45 3.82
MAY 2.40 5.52 2.00 3.86 2.37 4.20 2.00 3.97 2.50 3.94
JUN 2.60 6.51 2.00 4.42 2.45 4.34 2.40 3.85 2.50 4.04
JUL 2.50 5.54 2.05 4.56 2.40 4.02 2.50 3.78 2.50 4.69
AUG 2.30 4.9 I 1.85 3.87 2.55 3.97 2.40 3.59 2.50 4.57
SEP 2.20 4.18 1.90 3.12 2.40 3.82 2.40 3.33 2.60 3.79
OCT 2.05 4.09 1.75 2.56 2.05 3.16 2.15 3.02 2.60 3.59
NOV 2.20 4.38 1.72 2.85 2.10 3.43 1.85 2.56 2.50 3.7 1
DEC 2.00 4.68 1.83 3.24 2.00 3.90 1.70 2.49 2.45 3.13
 Weibull parameters 479

Table 4. Numerical values of Weibull parameters for monthly wind speed distribution
for Al-Jouf, Al-Wajh, Gasim, Medina, and Nejran

Al-Jouf Al-Wajh Gassim Medina Nejran

Month k C k C k c k C k c

JAN 1.85 3.93 2.45 4.83 1.81 3.15 2.20 3.80 1.95 2.48
FEB 1.90 4.64 2.40 4.98 1.75 3.57 2.25 3.95 1.95 2.98
MAR 2.00 5.03 2.55 5.27 2.00 4.09 2.45 4.43 2.10 3.14
APR 1.95 5.10 2.55 5.18 2.07 4.00 2.50 4.23 2.35 3.34
MAY 2.00 4.51 2.45 5.02 2.15 4.26 2.65 4.05 2.35 3.39
JLJN 2.19 4.6 I 2.60 5.09 2.1 I 3.61 2.60 3.96 2.35 3.35
JUL 2.35 4.48 2.60 4.58 2.05 3.50 2.80 4.30 2.40 4.00
AUG 2.15 4.00 2.60 4.51 1.91 3.08 2.65 4.08 2.50 3.85
SEP 2.00 3.71 2.70 4.96 I .90 2.66 2.45 3.48 2.40 3.29
OCT 2.00 3.71 2.50 4.43 1.75 2.85 2.30 3.31 2.10 2.65
NOV I.91 3.68 2.60 4.42 1.80 3.15 2.30 3.60 2.00 2.31
DEC I .82 3.55 2.58 4.53 1.75 2.91 2.15 3.54 1.90 2.32

cember. The maximum values of scale parameter for
the Gizan and Nejran cities are observed in July. Their
minimum values are noticed in October and No-
vember.
5. CONCLUSIONS
It is found that the values vary between 1.95 and
2.6 for annual wind speed distribution. It is concluded
that the central region (the Riyadh and Gassim area)
observes the minimum values of the k parameter while
the northern region (Al-Wajh, Al-Jouf) observes the
maximum values. The same values of k for Dhahran
and Jeddah show a similarity between the two sites of
being located at the coast. The scale parameter varies
between 3.07 and 4.98. As for the k parameter, the
values of the c parameter have their maximum at Al-
Jouf and Al-Wajh, but their minimum value is found
at Nejran. The central region has moderate value of c
around 3.5.
For monthly wind speed distribution, it isconcluded
that the shape parameter has its maximum values in
the months of June and July for all the cities except
Gizan and Nejran. The minimum values for all the
cities are found in December. In general, an increasing
trend of the shape parameter is noticed from January
to June/July and then a decreasing trend towards the
end of the year. It is also concluded that the scale pa-
rameter has its maximum values in March, April, May,
and June and its minimum in October, November,
and December.
The values of the shape parameter can be used at
hub height without any modification (Gupta, 1986),
but the values of the scale parameter c need modifi-
cation. The values of the scale parameter could be cal-
culated at hub height by using the power law, which
generally holds good up to a height of 100 meters
(Gupta, 1986).
The contour maps plotted for the shape and scale
parameters may be a good tool for the rough estimate
of k and c at locations where the wind data is not avail-
able. These contour maps may further be improved if
more locations are added.
A~knoM,/~~~~ment-The authors wish to acknowledge the sup-
port of the Research Institute of King Fahd University of
Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.
REFERENCES
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C. G. Justus. W. R. Hargraves. and A. Yalcin, Nationwide
assessment of potential output from wind powered gen-
erators, J. .4ppl. M&wr. 15, 673-678 ( 1976).
C. J. Baynes, and A. G. Davenport, Some statistical models
for wind climate prediction. Preprints Fourth Conf. Prob-
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E. L. Petersen, I. Troen, S. Frandsen, and K. Hedegaard, Wind
atlas for Denmark., RISO, Denmark ( 1981).
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parameters of the weibull wind speed distribution for wind
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