Bolton’s Iran policy: could it strengthen the China-Russia-Iran-Pakista... https://notesonliberty.com/2018/04/12/boltons-iran-policy-could-it-stre...

Notes On Liberty

Spontaneous thoughts on a humble creed

Bolton’s Iran policy: could it strengthen the China-

Russia-Iran-Pakistan axis?

04/12/201804/12/2018 Tridivesh Singh Maini Current Events, Foreign Affairs, Politics

alliances, China, cooperation, geopolitics, India, Iran, John Bolton, national interest, Pakistan,
Russia
John Bolton, who took over as Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser on April 8, has had
significant differences with India (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03/26/john-bolton-the-view-from-
india/) on a number of issues in the past. As US Ambassador to the UN, he opposed
(hĴps://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/trump-picks-man-who-opposed-indias-elevation-to-
unsc-as-nsa/articleshow/63434685.cms) India’s elevation to the United National Security Council
(UNSC), even at a time when relations were at a high during the Manmohan Singh-Bush era. Bolton
had initially opposed the Indo-US nuclear deal, though later he lent his support. While the Trump
administration has sought to elevate India’s role (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/04/08/recent-
developments-in-the-context-of-indo-pacific/) in the Indo-Pacific region, Bolton has expressed the
view that there are some fundamental differences (hĴps://economictimes.indiatimes.com
/news/defence/us-nsas-incoherence-seen-in-south-asia-outlook/articleshow/63666495.cms) between
India and the US. In the short term, though, there is no serious divergence.

Bolton and Iran

What would really be of concern to India however is Bolton’s hawkish approach

(hĴps://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/john-bomb-iran-bolton-the-new-warmonger-in-the-
white-house) towards Iran. Bolton’s views are not very different from those of US President Donald
Trump and recently appointed Secretary of State John Pompeo. Bolton is opposed to the Iran Nuclear
Agreement signed between Iran and P5+1 countries in 2015. In 2015, the NSA designate called for
bombing Iran, last year he had criticized the deal, and last year he had called for scrapping the deal.

The Iranian response to Bolton’s appointment was understandably skeptical. Commenting on

Bolton’s appointment, Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, the spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s
National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said (hĴps://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals
/2018/03/iran-bolton-appointment-reaction-shamkhani-mek-funding.html):

Tillerson, as someone who supported the nuclear deal, was removed and someone has come [on
board] who is opposed to the nuclear deal. This appointment shows that Trump has the goal of
regime change for Iran and that Americans have a hostile posture toward Iran.

The deal will come up for consideration in May 2018, and through pressure from European allies it is

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likely that, for the time being, it will remain intact. Former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had
negotiated hard for keeping the deal intact. A worsening of ties between US and Iran would have a
number of important repercussions for India. First, India has invested in Chabahar Project, and has in
recent years developed robust economic linkages with Iran (hĴps://notesonliberty.com/2018/03
/21/indias-near-abroad-irans-regional-moves/), as was evident during the Iranian President’s visit to
India (hĴps://www.livemint.com/Politics/CHAmyDgX0de6OYFlhCSKjJ/Narendra-Modi-Hassan-
Rouhani-hold-substantive-talks-to-bo.html) in February 2018.

Will the Iran-Pakistan-Russia trilateral get stronger with a hawkish Bolton?

If one were to look beyond the possible ramifications for the Chabahar Project in Iran, as well as other
economic ramifications, New Delhi would also be wary of Iran moving even closer to Pakistan and
Russia, in case Bolton does adopts an excessively hawkish stance vis-à-vis Iran.

At the bilateral level all these countries have been seeking to strengthen ties in terms of connectivity
and economics, as well as the strategic sphere. These bilateral ties could lay the foundation for a
strong trilateral backed by China.

Iran-Russia relations

Tehran has already established a strong rapport with Russia in the strategic sphere. Only recently, the
Russian Foreign Minister (Sergei Lavrov) criticized the US for trying to negotiate terms of the Nuclear
Agreement. Commenting on this issue, Lavrov stated (hĴps://www.rferl.org/a/russia-china-lavrov-
want-denounce-us-efforts-change-iran-deal-world-trade-rules-unilaterally/29149098.html): “It has
nothing to do with diplomacy. It’s an aĴempt to enforce its own interests while completely ignoring
the interests of others.”

Economic Sphere

If one were to look at the economic sphere some important steps have been taken to enhance
cooperation. In November 2017, Russian oil producer Rosneft and the National Iranian Oil Company
signed a road map (hĴps://in.reuters.com/article/russia-iran-oil/russias-rosneft-irans-nioc-eye-30-
billion-in-oil-and-gas-projects-idINKBN1D14RR) on the implementation of “strategic” projects in Iran
with total investments worth up to $30 billion.

In March 2018, Zarubezhneft and Dana Energy, a private Iranian company, signed a 742 million USD
deal (hĴps://www.rferl.org/a/iran-signs-4-billion-dollar-oil-development-deal-russian-firm-
zarubezhneft-/29100944.html) to jointly develop the Aban and Paydar fields in Ilam province.

Iran-Pakistan ties

It is not just Iran-Russia ties, but even Iran-Pakistan ties which have witnessed an upswing recently.
Iran has had problems with Pakistan, including accusing Islamabad of lending support to certain
Sunni groups in Baluchistan. In May 2017, after 10 Iranian border guards were killed in clashes in a
town located close to the Iran-Pakistan border, the head of the Iranian armed forces had issued a
stern warning (hĴps://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-pakistan-security-idUSKBN1840SY),
promising that Iran would hit the safe havens of these groups in Pakistan if action is not taken against
them.

Of late, Iran has been trying to move closer to Pakistan. During his visit to Pakistan last month,
Iranian Foreign Minister, Javaz Zarif, invited Pakistan to join the Chabahar Project
(hĴps://www.ndtv.com/india-news/chabahar-port-project-iran-invites-pakistan-china-to-join-project-
with-india-report-1823338) during the course of a lecture at an Islamabad based think-tank. New
Delhi was quick to state (hĴps://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/it-is-for-iran-to-choose-

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partners-for-chabahar-port-india/articleshow/63320994.cms) that it had no objection to Iran’s

invitation, but Iran’s offer to Islamabad must have come as a surprise to India.

In December 2017, a major consignment of fruits from Pakistan was transported to Kazakhstan via
Iran. The 350-tonne cargo arrived in the south-eastern Iranian city of Zahedan by train, from the
Pakistani city of QueĴa, before being finally transported to the port city of Aktau in Kazakhstan.

Pakistan-Russia ties

As a consequence of India moving closer to the US, Russia-Pakistan ties too have witnessed an
upswing. Only recently, Pakistani Defence Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan stated in an interview
(hĴps://sputniknews.com/asia/201804061063290124-pakistan-russia-air-defense-systems/) to a
Russian publication:

Air defence system is a different kind of weapon we are interested. We are very much interested
in a very wide range of the Russian weapons technology. We are in negotiations [on air defence
systems] and once we conclude negotiations, we will be able to announce them.

Khan also spoke about acquiring T-90 tanks (hĴps://sputniknews.com/asia/201804061063290124-

pakistan-russia-air-defense-systems/), but in the context of a long term deal rather than a one-off.
During Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif’s visit to Russia in February 2018, both sides decided to
establish a joint commission (hĴps://sputniknews.com/asia/201804061063290124-pakistan-russia-air-
defense-systems/) on military cooperation for fighting IS. It was also decided to carry on with joint
military exercises (hĴps://sputniknews.com/asia/201804061063290124-pakistan-russia-air-defense-
systems/), which had begun in 2016, and discussions were held regarding key defence purchases by
Pakistan.

Both sides are also increasing cooperation in the area of energy. Russian state-giant Gazprom is in
negotiations with Pakistan for supplying LNG to the laĴer. Another big project is the 1100 kilometre
gas pipeline from Lahore to Karachi, which could go ahead in the very near future (so far US
sanctions against Rosneft had prevented this deal from materialising).

AĴempts are thus being made towards making Russia-Pakistan relationship a holistic one.

Complexities of Geopolitics

Geopolitics is complex, and the fact is that Iran and Russia both have robust economic and strategic
ties with New Delhi. Interestingly, one of the projects on which Iran and Russia is joining hands is the
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline. Similarly, New Delhi wants Iran and Russia to be part of the
International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which will provide India access to Europe.
Yet the changing dynamics require alacrity, and New Delhi will need to reshape or tweak it’s policies
accordingly.

In conclusion, New Delhi can not dictate Bolton’s policies, yet India needs to watch out for its own
interests. It would be most concerned about Bolton’s rather belligerent approach towards Iran, and
would hope that his new responsibility will moderate his stance. A rigid Iran policy would be good
news for China, as it would pave the way for a strong China-Iran-Pakistan-Russia axis. This certainly
would not be good for India. Trump’s isolationism has benefited China (hĴps://notesonliberty.com
/2018/01/27/is-trump-turning-the-us-into-the-biggest-loser/), in this case his rigidity on Iran, along
with Bolton’s, could too.

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