Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

Vol. 8, No. 1, January 2012, 41–54

Status, needs and possibilities for service life prediction and estimation of district heating
distribution networks
Daniel Hallberg*, Bojan Stojanović and Jan Akander
KTH Research School, Centre for Built Environment, University of Gävle, Gävle, Sweden
(Received 13 January 2009; final version received 28 July 2009; published online 21 October 2009)

An optimised and proactive maintenance strategy aims to maximise the economical profit, minimise environmental
impacts and keep the risk of failure to a low level. Implementation of such a strategy in the context of district
heating requires efforts and abilities for predicting future performances and estimating service life of district heating
components. A literature review on failures (damages and performance reductions) occurring on district heating
pipes, reveals that failures in district heating pipes are mainly leaks due to corrosion or mechanical impacts and
reduced thermal insulation performance: leaks being the more serious damage type. A feasible service life estimation
method for this type of damage is the Factor Method. Since the application of this method within the context of DH
pipes has not been found in other publications, this paper focuses on describing the method and discusses the
possibilities on how to apply it in two specific cases with respect to leakage: service life estimation of repaired district
heating pipe sections (i.e. maintenance of district heating network) and of district heating pipes in new or extended
district heating networks. Particular attention is paid to which modifying factors should be considered and how to
quantify them.
Keywords: district heating; maintenance strategy; service life; Factor Method

agreement. Since DH is a centralised heat production,

1. Introduction
Since the start in the 1950s, district heating (DH) has
become one of the most dominant heating alternatives
in Sweden, covering almost 50% of the space and
domestic hot water heating requirement of residential
buildings and other premises (Statistics Sweden (SCB)
2007). The market share of DH in Europe is about
10% and the largest DH market is in Russia. DH is
also available in North America, Japan, Korea, China
and Mongolia (more detailed statistics can be found at
http://www.energia.fi). The dominant position of DH
in Sweden is due to the fact that DH is a rather simple
yet efficient way of distributing heat on a large scale
in urban areas. DH is also economically justifiable
compared with the alternatives, and it has in some
sense been favoured by authorities. Although DH
is mainly located in urban areas there is still a need to
expand and intensify DH networks, e.g. in order to
increase the market share.
A major task for the DH suppliers is to adminis-
trate, manage and maintain the DH network in a
way that maximises the economical profit and mini-
mises the environmental impact. In addition, the DH
suppliers have to ensure that their product/service
(heat) is delivered in accordance to the customer
the consequence of production and delivery failures
will become greater, i.e. more customers will be
affected, compared with a decentralised production,
thus the need of a reliable DH system. To ensure a
reliable system, surveillance and maintenance of the
system during its complete life cycle is necessary. By
adopting long-term planning of DH distribution net-
work expansion and maintenance, provides opportu-
nities for improved allocation of resources, which
thereby enhances margins for proactive action strate-
gies (Strömwall and Lemmeke 1989).
1.1. Reactive and proactive strategies
Maintenance and repair of construction works is an
intermittent process based on two general strategies:
reactive (corrective) or proactive (preventive). The
proactive strategy may be subdivided into categories:
optimised or non-optimised. Horner et al. (1997) split
maintenance into three strategies:
(1) corrective (reactive),
(2) proactive, and
(3) condition-based (condition assessment-based
proactive strategy).

*Corresponding author. Email: daniel.hallberg@hig.se

ISSN 1573-2479 print/ISSN 1744-8980 online

Ó 2012 Taylor & Francis
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15732470903213740
http://www.tandfonline.com
42 D. Hallberg et al.
Which of these main strategies to apply depends
on what function is required of the construction.
If the function requirements are set to a high level;
for example, due to safety reasons and production
reliability, a proactive strategy is commonly used. This
is the case within in the aeronautics industry; in
order to avoid serious accidents related to component
failure, they are obliged to act before failures occur.
The proactive strategy is in some parts also commonly
used within bridge management, in which inspections
and condition assessments are periodically perfor-
med to attain reliable data for supporting proactive
decision-making. However, there are also elements
within bridge management that are based on a reactive
strategy (Sarja 2004).
In a case study on maintenance strategies in three
Nordic DH networks (Aalborg, Aarhus and Uppsala),
Andersson et al. (1999) concludes that all three DH
companies to some extent had implemented proactive
maintenance planning. Replacement of old DH pipes
(not necessarily damaged) constituted an important
part of the maintenance strategies of the two Danish
DH companies (Aarhus and Aalborg). These strategies
were a result of earlier experiences consisting fre-
quent damages and costly repairs. The maintenance
strategy in Uppsala (Sweden) was characterised by
a mix between proactive and reactive maintenance
approaches. However, the Uppsala company appears
to have a desire of developing and improving routines
and methods for proactive and optimal maintenance
actions.
The proactive strategy requires an all-embracing
knowledge about the construction and its life cycle
performance behaviour covering:
. performance requirements,
. in-use conditions,
. exposure environment, and
. service life (SL).
Whereas, a non-optimised proactive strategy may lead
to oversized maintenance, resulting in:
. inefficient use of resources,
. reduced economical profit, and
. increased environmental impact.
The same consequences may appear if the reactive
strategy is applied. Moreover, as the reactive strategy
leads to unexpected failures (as actions are taken
when failure occurs), the consequences may be serious
production breakdowns, neglected safety and customer
inconveniencies.
An optimised and proactive maintenance strategy
aims to maximise the economical profit, minimise
environmental impacts and keep the risk of failure to
low level. A hypothetical example of the different
maintenance strategies and their impact on the main-
tenance costs is presented in Figure 1. The hypothetical
example is based on discussions in Josefsson and
Åkesson (1988), Strömwall and Lemmeke (1989) and
by personal communications with a DH manager
(Hallberg et al. 2007). In the case of Gävle Energi AB,
which is a middle-sized Swedish DH supplier, the
annual maintenance cost (repair and refurbishment/
rehabilitation) of the DH network is about e0.9 to 3
million (about 1.5 to 5e/m pipe length). This corre-
sponds to about 3 to 9% of the income from the DH
production (Hallberg et al. 2007, Gävle Energi 2009).
Note the difficulty in completely avoiding (unexpected)
failures, as degradation (which implies failure/damage)
has a stochastic appearance, hence uncertainty in
failure prediction/assessment (see also discussion in
Section 3). Optimised and proactive strategies will
therefore still have a certain share of incorporated
reactive elements.
An optimised and proactive strategy requires long-
term planning, which in turn involves efforts and
abilities for predicting future performances and esti-
mating SL of materials and components. Reliable
predictions of future performance and SL require
systematic processing of large amount of consistent
and high-quality data. This is not plausible without
the aid of computerised systems (Shepard 2005), i.e.
information and communication technology (ICT)
tools.
1.2. Maintenance management systems
ICT-based maintenance planning systems for buildings
and infrastructures have been used on the Swedish
market for a long time. For example, the Swedish road
Figure 1. A hypothetical example of maintenance cost
related to: A, reactive strategy; B, non-optimised proactive
strategy (increased number of proactive actions); C,
optimised proactive strategy.
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 43

administration has, since the 1940s, systematically

gathered and processed data on a Swedish bridge
population condition (Racutanu 2000). Today, the
information is managed by a computerised bridge
management system BaTMan (Bridge and Tunnel
Management system) (Swedish Road Administration
(SRA) 2008a). Swedish nuclear power plants have
since the 1970s utilised a joint database containing
failure report data for making reliability analysis
(SwedPower 2005). These analyses have been valuable
inputs for performing proactive-based maintenance
plans and actions. During the 1980s VIAK AB Figure 2. Currently the most common DH pipe design
developed a computerised DH maintenance system (Olsson 2001). Note: PE depicts polyethylene and PUR
called FV-REBUS (Registration system for budgeting depicts polyurethane.
and maintenance strategy) (Asp et al. 1986), aimed at
supporting and improving registration of DH network
components and rationalising maintenance and budget
planning. Strömwall and Lemmeke (1989) developed
the basis for a computerised maintenance system
aimed at evaluating the maintenance cost and level of
service for DH and gas distribution networks. Today,
DH suppliers have their own computerised system
for asset management in which they register system
components, supervise operations on the DH network
and planning for network extensions and maintenance/
repair. However, these lack the tools for making SL
forecasts, i.e. mathematical models for assessment of
degradation, performance-over-time and estimation of
SL that are required for indicating need of main-
tenance (see also discussion in Section 3). These tools
are necessary to support more sophisticated proactive
strategies and decisions.
Figure 3. Welded steel pipe joint (twin pipe). The joint
foam has not been applied yet.
1.3. Objective
This paper discusses the need of implementing
methods and tools for optimised and proactive main-
tenance strategies in DH network operation and type of damage is the Factor Method (International
maintenance management; specifically for Swedish or, Organization for Standardization (ISO) 2000, ISO
in general, Nordic conditions. By means of a literature 2008). The Factor Method is a SL forecasting
study, this paper seeks to give an overview on the approach, which estimates the SL (not the degrada-
normal failures (damages and performance reductions) tion/performance over time), by making use of
occurring on DH pipes (medium pipe, thermal insula- information on a ‘reference’ component situated in a
tion and casing pipe, see (Figures 2 and 3)); hence reference in-use condition – with a known reference SL
giving the basic argument for selecting feasible (RSL) – and modifying factors that transform the
SL prediction and estimation methods (discussed in reference in-use conditions to the conditions of the
Section 3) to be used in, for example, a life cycle actual case. The Factor Method is described and
management system (LMS) (e.g. Hallberg 2005). the application of the method within the context of
The scope of this paper, concerning SL forecasting SL forecasting of DH pipes is discussed. Specific
(prediction or estimation), is primarily focused on pipe attention is paid to the modifying factors; which
leakage; one of the main and most serious damages factors to apply and how to evaluate and attain the
occurring on DH networks. Pipe leakage can be seen as factor values. The discussion also addresses the need
an abrupt damage, where there is no performance for developing a database for systemised reference
(fluid transport) reduction until the damage (leakage) condition data providing reliable input to the Factor
occurs. A feasible SL forecasting approach for this Method.
44 D. Hallberg et al.
2. Literature review on service life and durability of
district heating distribution networks
2.1. Performance requirement and service life
District heating distribution networks are required to
deliver heat from the power plants to the customers as
efficiently and reliably as possible. In technical terms,
these demands can be divided into two main perfor-
mance requirements (Andersson et al. 1999):
(1) Minor heat losses.
(2) Minor/no fluid losses.
The main performance requirements must be met
for at least 30 years according to Andersson et al.
(1999), which generally corresponds to the econo-
mical SL of a Swedish DH distribution network
(Gudmundsson 2003, Nordenswan 2007, Olsson
2003). The ambition is, however, to plan for a technical
SL (a designed life (DL)) of at least 30 to 50 years
(Andersson et al. 1999). The economical service
lifetime (SL) is, by actors within the DH-sector,
required to be at least 30 years, with an ambition of
having a technical SL of 30–50 years.
The investigations made within this paper have not
resulted in any figures or statistics that sum up long
time experiences (SL) on DH pipes. Available statis-
tical data have been too sparse to make reliable
conclusions about the service life. However, a technical
life of 30–50 years is not an unreasonable goal.
Comparing these figures with other piping systems,
one finds corresponding technical SL for (VVS-
företagen 2002a, 2000b and 2005):
. Cast iron sewage pipes, 30–60 years.
. PVC sewage pipes older than 1973, 20–30 years.
. PVC sewage pipes after 1973, 30–50 years.
. Galvanized steel water pipes, 30–40 years.
. Copper water pipes, 50–60 years.
. Heating system pipes about 80 years.
Note that the statistics above to a large extent
include pipes that are not buried in the ground,
accounting for why the heating system pipes have a
high value. Also, keep in mind that the pipes are
in systems with different functions, materials, consti-
tuents, and that these work with entirely different
pressures, temperatures, fluids, contaminants, environ-
ments (depth in ground), etc.
2.2. Failure characteristic of DH pipes
The two main factors reducing the performance of a
DH distribution network are leakage and insufficient
thermal insulation. Leakage is often a performance
indicator of DH distribution network (Andersson
et al. 1999). Leaky medium pipes (mostly steel or
copper) lead to fluid and heat losses and reduced
system pressure, which in turn may render distribution
breakdowns. Casing pipes may also leak. A leaky
casing pipe does not directly influence the system’s
energy performance, but may indirectly lead to
moisture ingress, which in turn may reduce the thermal
insulation and cause medium pipe corrosion. Figure 4
gives an overview of the relation between the two main
(on DH pipes) occurring degradation agents/factors,
mechanisms and failures/damages.
The definition of failure with respect to leakage
depends on the severity of the leak flow, which may in
many cases increase with time. Leaks in medium pipes
are unknown until the fluid loss increases to the point
where there is a detectable system pressure decrease or
to the point where the accumulated moisture/liquid
reaches a level that can be detected by, for example, a
surveillance system (moisture sensors). The latter is a
common way to detect leaks in DH pipes. However,
there are no available surveillance systems (or meth-
ods) that are able to detect, locate and quantify the
leaks all together (Bjurström et al. 2003). In practice, it
is possible to detect the moisture and, to some extent,
geographically locate its origin. The difficulty is to
verify if the moisture arises from the leaking fluid
(leaking medium pipe) or groundwater/rainwater
(leaking casing pipes) (Bjurström et al. 2003).
2.2.1. Leaks in steel pipe joints
Corrosion is by far the most common cause for DH
medium pipe leakage, although leaks may also occur
due to mechanical fractures and inferior installations
(Nilsson 2002, Dahlroth 2007). The most common
cause concerning corrosion damage on steel pipes is
external corrosion due to aggressive exposure environ-
ment conditions (Dahlroth 2007) (Figures 5 and 6).
A study by Josefsson and Åkesson (1988) concluded
that the failure rate due to corrosion, tended to
increase with age. According to a study by Sund
(2002), corrosion rates up to 0.5 mm/year may appear
in some conditions. The study also concluded that
most of the corrosion damages where caused by local
defects on the casing pipes (e.g. leaky casing pipes and
insulation joints) and local conditions rather than the
general corrosiveness of the ground (exposure environ-
ment). Sund (2002) also observed an increased rate of
corrosion damages in pipes installed near heavy traffic.
The reason was probably due to leaks in casing pipe
joints caused by traffic loads. Corrosion damages due
to unfavourable fluid chemistry may also appear,
although in Sweden very seldom (Andersson et al.
1999).
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Figure 4. The relation between degradation agent/factors, degradation mechanisms and failure/damage occurring on DH pipes.
Figure 5. Leak in steel pipe due to corrosion. The damaged
part of the pipe is in this case located at an inspection
chamber.
Another cause of medium pipe (steel) leaks is the
inherence of pores in welding joints. The emergence of
pores in the welding joints is one of the main causes for
damages concerning leakage, as the pores attenuate the
material and initiates cracks that may results in pipe
fractures. Hannertz and Garander (1987) studied the
mechanisms causing increased amount of pores in the
welding joints. The conclusion was that the amount of
pores, e.g. ‘wormholes’, is dependent on the steel
quality (treatment) in combination with the workman-
ship. Since welding with acetylene gas requires great
skills and experience, it was recommended to only
hire experienced and certificated welders (Hannertz
and Garander 1987). Gille (2005) made the same
45
Figure 6. Part of a corroded DH medium pipe. Corrosion
occurs on the external surface of the pipe.
conclusion and recommended DH suppliers to educate
welders specifically for installation of DH pipes.
Deformations and fractures related to mechanical
impacts from traffic loads, soil loads and temperature
expansions are examples of ‘mechanical’ damages that
may occur on medium pipes, casing pipes and pipe
insulation. The impact from traffic and ground loads
depends on the soil characteristic and the pipe
installation depth. Anderson et al. (1999) showed
that DH pipes, particularly DH pipes made of asbestos
cement, installed in clay rich soils and zones at the
boundary between clay rich soils and firm soils had a
higher failure rate compared to pipes installed in other
types of soils. The impact from traffic loads (which
varies in time) gives rise to vibrations which may lead
46 D. Hallberg et al.
to unwanted sinking of the soil, which in turn may
result in pipe deformation and pipe fracture. There is,
however, no statistical verified relation (lack of
empirical data) found between the traffic loads and
pipe fractures.
Temperature expansion and low cycle fatigue
(LCF) are other phenomenon that may give rise to
deformations and fractures on DH pipes. However, the
temperature expansion phenomenon is well known and
taken into consideration in the design process. For
example, in the DH design code it is stipulated that
DH pipes have to withstand temperature expansion
with respect to a temperature variation within the
interval 720 to 1208C (Swedish District Heating
Association (SFV) 2006). Also in this case, there is a
lack of empirical data on damages, which makes it
difficult to draw any conclusion on damages initiated
by cyclic temperature variations.
2.2.2. Leaks in casing pipes and insulation joints
The joints are the weakest parts of the casing pipes and
insulation. Leaky casing pipes and insulation joints
may cause groundwater admittance, causing corrosion
damages on steel pipes (Sund 2002). DH pipes with
leaky casing pipes installed under the streets may be
exposed to chlorides from de-icing salts (commonly
used in Sweden during winter season), which causes an
increased probability of steel pipe corrosion (Sund
2002). There are mainly three different casing pipe joint
techniques used (SFV 2007) – welded joint, shrink joint
and mechanical joint (see www.logstor.com). However,
studies indicate that welded casing pipe joints seem to
have the best waterproofing performance (Bergström
et al. 2002, SFV 2007).
Polyurethane (PUR) cellular foam, which is the
most common insulation material in DH pipes, is
generally completely waterproof. However, as men-
tioned earlier, the critical part of the insulation, with
respect to waterproofing, is located at the joints. There
are two types of insulation joint techniques to fill the
gap between the pipe insulation after steel pipe
welding: foaming or foam shells, of which foaming is
most common in Sweden. It has been observed that the
pore structure of the joint foam tends to be signifi-
cantly coarser at the boundary of the pipe end. A large
pore structure facilitates the admittance of ground-
water, which increases the probability of corrosion of
the medium (steel) pipes (Blomqvist and Ljungqvist
1986, Nilsson et al. 2005). It has also been observed
that the adhesion between the joint foam and the pipe
foam becomes stronger if the pipe foam is clean and
not deteriorated (Nilsson et al. 2005). The use of
insulation shells has become a more commonly used
joint technique; however, the technique is criticised due
to insufficient water tightness at the joints (Nilsson
2002, Nilsson et al. 2003). The cavity that may appear
at the insulation joints (independently of insulation
joint technique) in combination with temperature
variations may cause ‘breathing’ effects that absorbs
the moisture and give rise to an increased risk of
medium (steel) pipe corrosion (Bergström et al. 2001,
Bergström and Nilsson 2002).
2.2.3. Reduced thermal insulation performance
There are mainly two types of mechanisms affecting
the thermal insulation of DH pipes. One is due to
evaporation of moisture/liquid water that reduces the
thermal insulation and increases the heat losses up to
10 times (Andersson et al. 1999). The other is diffusion
of gases (carbon dioxide) that reduces the thermal
insulation, so-called foam ageing (Olsson 2001 and
Fröling 2002). Older DH pipes with mineral wool
insulation are rather sensitive to moisture with respect
to thermal insulation. Mineral wool possesses the
capability of absorbing and transferring large amounts
of moisture/liquid water relatively fast (Andersson
et al. 1999), which has a direct negative impact on the
thermal insulation performance and may cause corro-
sion damages (Sund 2002). The impact of moisture
with respect to thermal insulation performance is less
for pre-insulated pipes with PUR foam, as this type of
thermal insulation is rather waterproof (Andersson
et al. 1999, Nilsson 2002). However, there is an
increased risk of cavities in the PUR foam at the
joints that may ease the moisture transfer in an adverse
manner. In addition, the mechanical strength and
stiffness of PUR foam may decrease when exposed to
moisture (Nilsson 2002).
The thermal insulation performance of PUR foam
can also be reduced due to gas diffusion. The pores in
PUR foam consist of a composition of cyclopenthane
and carbon dioxide. In time, carbon dioxide will
diffuse and be replaced by oxygen. The new gas
composition results in an increased material thermal
conductivity. Studies have showed that the reduction
in thermal insulation performance can be up to 30–
35% due to this phenomenon (Olsson 2001, SFV
2007). The increase of thermal conductivity due to
change in material (insulation) gas composition is
presented in Figure 7.
3. Methods on service life prediction
Degradation of a material or component is an effect of
exposure environment and in-use condition and their
prevailing degradation agents. The establishment of a
mathematical expression/function that provides the
possibilities to predict and assess degradation in a
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Figure 7. The influence on thermal conductivity due to
change in gas composition over time (SFV 2007). Note: DN
depicts nominal diameter.
profound way, generally requires that a thorough
knowledge of the degradation environment is realised
(Haagenrud 1997). By identifying relevant degrada-
tion agents and mechanisms, which likely affects the
material or component performance, and characteris-
ing the degradation environment, gives the possibility
of attaining knowledge for making SL prediction (ISO
2000). Characterisation of the degradation environ-
ment includes determination of the range and level of
degradation agents in the exposure environment.
In order to acquire a profound degradation func-
tion, hence computable SL predictions and assess-
ments, processed information (listed below) from test
procedures and previous experiences has to be utilised
in a mathematical modelling procedure.
. Degradation agents.
. Degradation mechanisms.
. Degradation environment characteristics.
. Magnitude of material or component degrading
response.
. Material or component performance change due
to degradation.
. Performance requirement.
The performance-over-time for any construction
works is in general a function that describes a specific
measurable performance characteristic, in a certain
service (degradation) environment, and during a time
period. In order to attain knowledge of the expected
SL, a requirement (limit state) is applied onto the
performance-over-time function. It is generally agreed
that the factors affecting (degrading) the performance-
over-time, hence the SL, are stochastic (Marteinsson
2005). In reality, a performance-over-time function
describes a statistical distribution of a performance
property (Jernberg et al. 2004). The stochastic appear-
ance of degradation is ‘often’ due to multiple
47
degradation factors and mechanisms, synergetic inter-
actions and long-term course of events. These condi-
tions prevent full knowledge of the time-dependent
causality concerning material or component degra-
dation, thereby preventing the achievement of an
‘accurate’ deterministic degradation or performance-
over-time function, hence SL prediction. Marteinsson
(2005) discusses that a hypothetical SL distribution
model may be described with the function presented
in Equation (1), for a given type of material or
component at a given location.
SLðt; sÞ ¼ fðt; iqðsÞ; dðt; sÞ; prðt; sÞÞ ð1Þ
where SL is the service life distribution function;
t, time; s, general space co-ordinate (vector); iq, initial
material or component quality; d, degradation;
pr, performance requirement criteria.
3.1. Approaches on service life prediction
When pursuing the establishment of SL predictions of
materials or components, there are in general two basic
approaches (as presented within the scope of this
paper), depending on modelling pre-requisite and
information need.
The first approach is to attain a degradation and
performance-over-time function that gives continuous
information as it progresses in time. By having this
function, the ability to predict the SL is not only based
on when a certain limit state is met, but also at what
rate the degradation, and thereby change, in perfor-
mance progresses, hence choice of limit state. An
example is the change in thermal insulation of DH
pipes due to change in gas composition (Olsson 2001).
This approach requires that there is a well established
knowledge of causality concerning exposure environ-
ment and in-use conditions that implies material or
component degradation and magnitude of degrada-
tion, hence change in performance.
The second approach is to gain knowledge of when
a material or component suffers damage due to
degradation, and thereby reaches the SL. In this case,
having a function that gives continues information
on the performance-over-time due to degradation
(as it progresses in time) is not necessary, since the
performance is only affected by the damage when it
occurs. An example is the damage related to DH pipe
leaks. This approach may not require the same level
of knowledge as the main interest is to predict when
the SL is reached. In this case the SL prediction, or
risk analysis, can be based on pure statistics of, e.g.
degradation environment, damage and age. No pro-
found knowledge of the time dependant causality is
required. However, this approach does not rule out
48 D. Hallberg et al.
that the SL prediction is based on continuous degra-
dation functions/knowledge. Figures 8 and 9 presents
the exemplification of the two approaches concerning
SL prediction (as presented within the scope of this
paper).
A general methodology for SL prediction of
building materials and components is given in the
ISO 15686-1 and 2 standards (ISO 2000, ISO 2001); the
methodology is also eligible for all other types of
materials and components. It presents the procedure
for determining the causality of exposure environ-
ment and in-use conditions that implies material or
component degradation and magnitude of degrada-
tion, which provides the possibility to establish SL
Figure 8. A continuous degradation function (thermal
conductance) that represents a continuous and proportional
performance reduction (heat loss)71.
Figure 9. A continuous degradation function (corrosion)
that implies a discontinuous performance reduction (pipe
leak). By applying a limit state brings the attainment of the
SL (time to failure).
estimations. In general, SL and durability of materials
and components should methodically be assessed in
each case. When making damage predictions or risk
analysis, the necessary information can be assessed by
means of tests/measurements based on, for example,
ISO 15686, or be of purely statistical character (as
previously discussed).
3.2. Damage prediction
Contrary to a degradation function, a damage predic-
tion (as seen in this paper) means only to assess when
damage occurs. As discussed in Section 3.1, depending
on prevailing pre-requisite and information require-
ment, certain performance is only affected by degrada-
tion as damage occurs (e.g. pipe leakage); making it
unnecessary to have a continuous performance-over-
time function. In these particular cases, it is appro-
priate to apply a method that predicts SL due to
abrupt damage, in a discrete form. The predictions can
either be based on pure statistics depending on, for
example, degradation environment, damage type and
age, or continuous degradation functions/knowledge
(see discussion in Section 3.1 and Figures 8 and 9). An
appropriated and established SL estimation method
applicable for these types of scenarios is the Factor
Method (ISO 2000, Jernberg et al. 2004, Marteinsson
2005).
4. Service life estimations of district heating pipes
based on the Factor Method
4.1. The Factor Method in general
In a specific design or maintenance case, the SL of
some component (as an example) is seldom known. In
order to gain this knowledge, it is required to use
available information on a ‘reference’ component
situated in a reference in-use condition and which
has a RSL. This information will be modified to be
applicable to the intended design, actual in-use
conditions or maintenance situation. The Factor
Method is a procedure that has been developed with
the intention to systematise these types of SL assess-
ments. The method is standardised and described in
the ISO 15686-1 (ISO 2000), ISO 15686-8 (ISO 2008)
and by Jernberg et al. (2004), Marteinsson (2005) and
Hovde (2005), to mention just a few. The method is not
a degradation model as it only means to estimate the
SL and not the performance-over-time. The method is
formulated according to ISO 15686-1 as follows:
ESLC ¼ RSLC A  B  C  D  E  F  G
ESLC: Estimated SL of a component or assembly
RSLC: Reference SL of a component or assembly
The modifying factors A to G are presented in Table 1.
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 49

A window with wooden frame can be taken as a Marteinsson (2005) using probabilistic functions instead
simple example of the Factor Method’s use and of deterministic values for the factors will ‘often’ not
function, as presented in the ISO 15686-1 (ISO 2000) change the uncertainty in results, as the functions them-
and by Jernberg et al. (2004). The window has a selves will not be known with any certainty, very often
well-defined RSLC of 20 years. Let’s say that this due to insufficient quantity and quality of input data.
particular type of window will be installed in a
building, which has similar conditions as the RSLC,
except for factor E. The outdoor environment at this 4.2. Provision of RSLC data
particular site is harsher than where the RSLC was As recommended in ISO 15686-8 (ISO 2008), it is
established. It is concluded that the outdoor environ- essential to provide as much information as possible
ment will have a modifying factor of 0.8, hence the on reference conditions under which the RSLC is
ESLC ¼ 20  1  1  1  1  0.8  1 ¼ 16 years. Discus- generated, so that reliable a estimation can be
sions and examples on how to assess and set of modi- performed. The authors of this paper recommend
fying factor values are presented by Marteinsson (2005). that such reference data should, at minimum, include
The considered modifying factors are both of values for parameters as shown in Table 2.
qualitative and quantitative character and some The data for the DH network and the inherent
factors can be allocated in either group as presented performance of the DH pipes, as expressed in Table 2,
by Marteinsson (2005). can be provided by the DH supplier and the DH
manufacturer respectively, given that the information
. Qualitative: Some of the agents such as the effect is available.
of design (B), workmanship (C) and maintenance The reference data has to be evaluated, categorised
(G) are difficult to give a value except on an (Table 2) and classified in order to be manageable and
ordinal scale. useful in further data processing, e.g. determination of
. Quantitative: The environment (D, E) can be RSLC. An example on classification of some categories
valued or compared on an interval scale given is presented in Table 3.
that enough information is available in form of
characterisation of degradation environments or
degradation functions. The comparison can be Table 2. Minimum reference condition data categories.
made as a ratio between design or maintenance Reference data
cases and a reference case. categories Reference data sub-categories
Pipe property data Pipe category/pipe
Factors A and F are not as easily defined since they manufacture
posses the characteristics of both groups. Factor A Pipe size (nominal
is dependent on material properties, design and diameter, DN)
workmanship of a product or component while factor Pipe length
Year of installation
F represents a wide range of actions and usage, some Type of joint technique
of which are quantitative whilst others are qualitative. (casing/insulation)
An objection to the Factor Method (or any Damage data Type of damage
Cause of damage
other deterministic SL forecasting method) is that the Year (date) of damage
method is deterministic instead of probabilistic. If a Detection of damage
probabilistic approach is used, the precision in each (how the damage was
factor and outcome of the method could be evaluated, detected)
Length of damaged/repaired
e.g. given as a confidence interval. As discussed by pipe
Geological conditions Type of soil
Maximum groundwater level
Table 1. The modifying factors of the factor method (ISO Concentration of pollutions/
2000). degradation agents
Climatic conditions Mean ground/air temperature
Factor Relevant conditions Agents Average frost depth
Annual precipitation
A Quality of components Agent related to the Traffic conditions Traffic load
B Design level inherent quality Traffic intensity
C Work execution level characteristic Work execution level Craftsman experience
D Indoor environment Environment Weather conditions during
E Outdoor environment installation
F In-use conditions Operation conditions Work space (e.g. depth and
G Maintenance level width of ditch)
50 D. Hallberg et al.

The classification in Table 3 is so far only an
example; the division of categories and classes is open
to adjustment. For example, the traffic load/intensity
category could likewise be classified in a five-grade
ordinal scale, similar to the classification of pollutions
(Table 3). When quantitative data relating to factors
A, B, C, F and G is not available, qualitative grading
should be made (ISO 2008). The grading 1 to 5, as
proposed by ISO 15686-8, are values meant to quantify
qualitative information of reference conditions and
should not be misinterpreted to be the modifying value
itself (ISO 2008).
Once an appropriate amount of data is accepted
and formatted, i.e. a comprehensive and categorised
statistical data population generated from a large
amount of well-structured and categorized damage
reports (preferably on a national/regional level), it can
be used to evaluate and determine the RSLC (with
respect to certain damages) of DH pipes for several
sets of reference conditions. An example of formatting,
evaluation and determination of RSLC data is
presented in Annex B in ISO 15686-8 (ISO 2008).
The process of building up a RSLC database is
described in ISO 15686-8 (ISO 2008), see Figure 10.
. Case A: to estimate the service life of repaired
pipe sections (replacement of pipe)
. Case B: to estimate the service life of pipes in a
new or extended DH distribution network.
. The relevant modifying factors that may have
significant impact on the degradation/damage
occurrence in the two cases are presented in
Table 4.
4.3.1. Case A
In case A, i.e. when to estimate the SL of a repaired
DH pipe section (the replacement pipe), it is assumed
that the prevailing set of conditions that have caused
leakage on the DH pipe section will constitute
reference conditions. The SL of the damaged pipe
section will consequently constitute as RSLC. The DH
network in question can therefore be seen as a one big
single ‘living’ RSLC database, see Figure 11. There is
some additional reference information that is not

4.3. Applicable modifying factors

The Factor Method, as a method to estimate the
service life of DH pipes due to leakage, is within this
paper applied in two specific cases.

Table 3. Classification of some data categories.

Data category Classes References Figure 10. The process of providing RSLC data (ISO 2008).
Note: RSLC depicts reference service life of a component or
Type of soil Clay/silt/organic Andersson assembly.
soil et al.
Sand/gravel (1999)
Moraine
Rocky gravel Table 4. The two cases and corresponding modifying
Groundwater High (e.g. above Andersson factors.
level (Maximum) DH pipes) et al.
Low (e.g. below (1999) Case A: Repair Case B: Installation
DH pipes) Modifying factors of pipe sections of new pipe sections
Pollutions Very low –
concentrations Low Factor A: Quality X (X)
(e.g. chlorides) Normal of component
High Factor B: Design X X
Very high level
Traffic load/intensity Low (5200 ADTh1) SRA (2008b) Factor C: Work X X
Normal execution level
(200–1000 ADTh1) Factor D: Indoor
High (41000 ADTh1) environment
Craftsman experience Experienced Andersson Factor E: Outdoor X
Inexperienced et al. environment
(1999) Factor F: In-use (X)
Weather conditions Warm and dry – condition
during installations Cold or wet Factor G:
1
Maintenance
ADTh (annual daily traffic) the annual average of daily amount of level
heavy (43500 kg) vehicles (SRA 2008b).
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Figure 11. The process of selecting RSLC data (ISO 2008).
Note: RSLC depicts reference service life of a component or
assembly.
provided by the ‘living’ RSLC database. This type of
‘additional’ reference information refers in case A to
the quality of workmanship (factor C), which in turn
can be correlated to the construction intensity (as
discussed in Section 2.2) at the time of installation of
the replaced (damaged) pipe. Information on the
construction intensity and responsible contractors is
likely to be found in databases or archives at the DH
suppliers.
Relevant modifying factors recommended for case
A are factors A (quality of pipes), B (design/technique
of casing joints) and C (work execution level); see
Table 2.
Factor A has to be evaluated and defined for those
cases where the damaged pipe section is replaced by a
new type of DH pipe with significant different inherent
performance. This is obvious, as old DH pipes, based
on obsolete design, techniques and regulations (e.g.
asbestos-cement pipes) have different performance
properties (quality and design) compared with pipes
commonly used today (Olsson 2001), see Figure 2.
However, assuming that the damaged pipe is replaced
by a pipe with similar inherent performance, then
factor A will have no influence on the estimations (i.e.
factor A ¼ 1).
As previously discussed (see Section 2.2), the design
of casing pipe joints may have a considerable impact
on the failure rate due to corrosion damages, motivat-
ing definition of the factor B value (design). Currently
there are three different types of casing pipe joint
techniques available on the market; which to apply
depends on pipe type, pipe size and environmental
conditions (SFV 2007). The welding joint (of PE-
casing pipe) appears to be the most reliable of the three
alternatives and is frequently used (70% of all joints)
for pipe diameters corresponding to 355 mm and more
(SFV 2007).
When it comes to factor C, it is interpreted that the
work execution level takes into account aspects such as
site management, workmanship and climate condition
during execution of the work; see appendix E in ISO
51
15686-1 (ISO 2000). As discussed in Section 2.2 of this
paper, the work execution level (factor C), i.e. work-
manship (e.g. insufficient welds) and climate condition
at the execution, may have a decisive impact on the
DH pipe performance and the SL. Factor D (indoor
environment) is obviously not applicable in this case,
while factor E (outdoor environment), the ground
conditions, is set equal to the reference condition. If
measures improving the protection against environ-
mental exposure (e.g. improved drainage) are done in
association to the repair work, such measures should
be evaluated and assessed within the factor B category
(design level). The in-use conditions (factor F), i.e. the
operational conditions, are also assumed equal to the
reference condition.
Usually DH pipes will be in operation until they
become damaged and replaced without being main-
tained, e.g. cleaned. Factor G therefore becomes
irrelevant in this case. However, it should be noted
that the repair, i.e. replacement of DH pipes (compo-
nent level), in itself is a maintenance activity, yet from
a network point of view.
4.3.2. Case B
The application of the Factor Method in the design
phase of new or extended DH distribution net-
works differs from case A, as all of the RSLC data
has to be gathered from a predefined RSLC database
(Figure 11).
The modifying factors, which are concluded to
have decisive impact on the SL estimations, corre-
spond primarily (in this case) to factors B, C and E,
and to some extent also factors A and F (Table 4).
With the same motivation as in case A, it is assumed
that factors D and G are inapplicable or irrelevant.
Given that the set of reference in-use conditions are
similar to the condition of the specific case of interest
with respect to pipe quality and design, then factor A
can be ignored (or set to A ¼ 1). If not, i.e. if the
reference data is based on ‘old’ pipes where the pipe
design and quality significantly differs form pipe design
and design codes commonly applied ‘today’, it should
be considered whether or not the RSLC data is
appropriate/acceptable for its intended use at all.
Evaluation and application of factor B should be
considered for those situations when the reference pipe
is similar to the pipe of the specific case, but where the
casing pipe joint technique/design is different, see the
motivation in case A.
The arguments for applying factor C are similar to
those presented in case A, while factor E (outdoor
environment) is in this paper defined and characterised
by soil type, moisture (including liquid water), pollu-
tion and traffic load/intensity. These are degradation
52 D. Hallberg et al.
agents/factors that are, in accordance to the literature
review, presumed to have a decisive impact on the
SL estimations and should be evaluated and defined
with care.
The application of factor F refers in this paper to
mechanical impact due to operational conditions such
as fluid temperature and pressure variations. It is
assumed that the reference operation conditions of the
specific case, due to temperature and pressure varia-
tions, are similar to the reference in-use conditions.
However, future change of operational conditions
should be considered, as such change may affect the
degradation/damage process.
4.4. Determination of modifying factor values
It is always up to the user to set or find the modifying
factor values. The factor values, which theoretically
may have a value between 0 and infinity, should
preferably be close to the reference in-use conditions,
i.e. value 1 (ISO 2008), but may in some cases be
determined based on the user’s/evaluator’s own
experience and knowledge. In those cases, the factor
method can be regarded as a refined checklist (ISO
2008). Alternatively the user may find appropriate data
enabling the user him/herself to calculate the factor
values or find tabulated factor values (e.g. Hovde 2005)
generated by ‘experts’ which are based on statistical
data derived from a RSLC database or similar. An
example of the latter approach is the ISO 9223 (ISO
1992), which consists of a number of tabulated
corrosivity classes for different environmental expo-
sures on different metals and alloys. This approach
seems appropriate when evaluating modifying effects
of subsets of influencing factors within a modifying
factor category, e.g. the influence of craftsman
experience and weather conditions on the work
execution level factor (Factor C).
Applying degradation models would be an alter-
native approach to determine the values of, for
example, factor E (in case B), since the long-term
influence of the exposure environment cannot be
(or is unlikely) measured in real time. Applying this
approach requires a profound knowledge about the
time dependent degradation process and utilisation of
mathematical models describing this process. This
approach can be rather complex as the degradation
process leading to damage may consist of a number of
sub processes. For example, the degradation process
leading to leakage caused by corrosion due to, for
example, chloride contaminated water can be divided
into two parts: an initiation phase and a corrosion
phase (compare the process of corrosion on reinforced
concrete structures, e.g. Tuutti 1982), see Figure 9. The
corrosion process, which is dependent on moisture
content and concentration of pollution, is relatively
well known. The difficulty is to model the initiation
phase. This phase, representing the process of causing
favourable conditions (propagation of cracks on the
casing pipes and water ingress) triggering corrosion, is
rather complicated to model in a deterministic way
since the factors/conditions causing, for example,
cracks on casing pipes vastly varies in numbers and
magnitude, causing a stochastic appearance. It is
therefore appropriate to model the time-span of the
initiation phase based on pure statistics derived from
damage reports.
5. Conclusions
This paper concludes that implementation of opti-
mised and proactive strategies requires efforts and
abilities for predicting future performances, risk of
failures and SL of materials and components. A
literature review on failures (damages and performance
reductions) occurring on DH pipes reveals that the
most common failure is leaks due to corrosion or
mechanical impacts and reduced thermal insulation
performance. The latter is a typical example of a
continuous process that can be modelled as a
performance-over-time function, which in turn can be
utilised to define a performance limit state and SL.
Despite that the reduction of thermal insulation per-
formance can be up to 35% during a 50-year period, it
is commonly pipe leaks that serve as performance
indicators (incitements for repair) of DH pipes.
Leakage is a performance reduction characterised by
an abrupt damage (Figure 9) caused by a number of
degradation agents/factors. However, since leakage is
an abrupt damage, it is not necessary to know how
the degradation process leads to the damage when
estimating the service life – the importance is to know
when the leakage will most likely appear. A feasible
approach for estimating the SL of DH pipes due
to leakages is the Factor Method. Since the application
of this method within the context of DH pipes has
not been found in other publications, this paper
focuses on describing the Factor Method and discusses
the possibilities of application within two specific cases
with respect to leakage: SL estimation of repaired
DH pipe sections (i.e. maintenance of DH network)
and of DH pipes in new or extended DH networks.
Particular attention is devoted on the modifying
factors; what factors to consider and how these may
be quantified. In the first case, it is concluded that the
in-use conditions serve as reference conditions, where
the modifying factors only comprise the inherent
quality characteristic of the pipes, i.e. factors A, B
and C. In the second case, it is assumed that the SL
estimation of the specific case is based on RSLC data
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
derived from a reference condition database and
modifying factors primarily comprising factors B, C
and E. Factor A is considered as irrelevant since it is
assumed that the quality of the currently produced DH
pipes hardly varies. For those situations where the
design and quality of the reference pipe significantly
differs form the pipe of the specific case, i.e. when the
reference pipe is of different type compared to the pipe
of the specific case, it should be considered whether or
not the RSLC data is appropriate/acceptable for its
intended use at all. Nevertheless, this second case
implies establishing of a national RSLC database which
can provide reliable and relevant RSLC data and data
for quantifying modifying factors. The existing damage
reporting system and database on DH pipes developed
by SFV may provide basis for such national RSLC
database. However, there is a need to further develop
and complete this damage reporting system and
database with structured and relevant data that
corresponds to the requirement of RSLC data.
Dahlroth (2007) also proposed a development of the
existing damage reporting system and database in order
to provide data for improved reliability analyses.
The proposal of applicable modifying factors stated
in this paper is based on the results from the literature
review, which pertains to Swedish/Nordic conditions.
It is therefore, in every other case, recommended that
the choice of RSLC data and modifying factors has to
be preceded by an evaluation of the specific conditions/
cases in which the factors are applied. When using
the Factor Method, it is up the user/designer to judge
the appropriateness of the reference data and to
define the values of the applicable modifying factors.
The latter can be done in several ways, making the
Factor Method more flexible. However, the use of
the Factor Method requires, in every case, experi-
ence and knowledge about the failures and their
causes. It is argued that the DH designers/evaluators
generally possess this basic experience and knowledge,
hence making the Factor Method a powerful and
flexible method feasible as SL estimation tool in
DH management systems supporting optimised and
proactive maintenance strategies.
Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to Gävle Energi AB for their input
of valuable experience, support and contributions to a pilot
project (Hallberg et al. 2007) which is the basis of this paper.
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