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LITERATURE REVIEW
2.2 Forecasting
These are some definitions of forecasting, based on experts :
1. According to Jay Heizer and Barry Render (2006, p104), forecasting is the
art and science of predicting future events. It may involve taking historical data and
projecting them into the future with some sort of mathematical model.
2. According to Russel and Taylor (2011, p496), forecast is a prediction of
what will occur in the future.
3. According to Stevenson (2010, p72), forecasts are a basic input in the
decision processes of operations management because they provide information on future
demand.
4. According to Chase, Jacobs (2011, p520), forecasting is the basis of
corporate long run planning. In the functional areas of finance and accounting, forecasts
provide the basis for budgetary planning and cost control.
5. According to Krajewski, Ritzman, Malhotra (2007, p504), a forecast is a
prediction of future events used for planning purposes.
2.2.1 Forecasting Time Horizons
According to Jay Heizer and Barry Render (2006, p104), a forecast is usually classified by
the future time horizon that it covers. Time horizons fall into three categories:
1. Short - range forecast: This forecast has a time span of up to 1 year, but is generally less
than 3 months. It is used for planning purchases, job scheduling, workforce levels, job
assignments, and production levels.
2. Medium - range forecast: A medium - range, or intermediate, forecast generally spans
from 3 months to 3 years. It is useful in sales planning, production planning and
budgeting, cash budgeting, and analysis of various operating plans.
3. Long - range forecast: Generally 3 years or more in time span, long - range forecasts are
used in planning for new products, capital expenditures, facility location or expansion,
and research and development.
2.4.3 Stockouts
A stockout is the inability to satisfy the demand for an item. When stockouts occur, the item
is either back-ordered or a sale is lost. A back order occurs when a customer is willing to wait for
the item; a lost sale occurs when the customer is unwilling to wait and purchases the item
elsewhere. Back orders result in additional costs for transportation, expediting, or perhaps buying
from another supplier at a higher price. Almost sale has an associated opportunity cost, which
may include loss of goodwill and potential future revenue (Evans and Collier, 2007: 488). The
high percentage of stockouts can lead the condition where the customer try to find another
competitors product, as well known as switching cost, because of dissatisfaction.
2.5 Planning
According to Bruno Dyck and Mitchell J. Neubert (2011, p8), planning means identifying an
organization’s goals and strategies, as well as the appropriate organizational resources required
to achieve those goals and implement those strategies efficient and effectively.
2.6 Inventory
These are some definitions of forecasting, based on experts :
1. According to Krajewski, Ritzman, Malhotra (2007, p444), inventory management is the
planning and controlling of inventories in order to meet the competitive priorities of the
organization, is an important concern for managers in all types of businesses.
2. According to Evans, Collier (2008, p481), inventory is any asset held for future use or
sale.
3. According to Chase, Jacobs (2011, p594), inventory is the stock of any item or resource
used in an organization. An inventory system is the set of policies and controls that
monitor levels of inventory and determine what levels should be maintained, when stock
should be replenished, and how large orders should be.
4. According to Stevenson (2010, p549), inventory is a stock or store of goods. Inventory
management is a core options management activity.
5. According to Rusell and Taylor (2011, p557), inventory is a stock of items kept by an
organization to meet internal or external customer demand.
6. According to Chase, Aquilano, Jacobs (2003, p513) the basic purposes of inventory
analysis in manufacturing and stockkeeping services is to specify when items should be
ordered and how large the order should be. Many firms are tending to enter into longer -
term relationship with vendors to supply their needs for perhaps the entire year. This
changes the "when" and "how many to order" to "when" and "how much to deliver".
Forecasting Inventory
Minimize cost
In this research, the authors make a research to determine the effect of forecasting and
inventory to the bullwhip effect and demand that will help to minimize the cost .According to
Stevenson (2010, p72), forecasts are a basic input in the decision processes of operations
management because they provide information on future demand. And also the Supply chain
inventories are prone to fluctuations and instability. Small changes in the end item demand can
create an inventory and order oscillations that amplify as one moves up in the supply chain
(Barlas and Gunduz, 2011). This phenomenon of amplification of oscillations through the supply
chain is also known as the bullwhip effect. So the forecasting demand and minimize the bullwhip
effect using inventory can help to reduce, minimize cost by reducing over stock and also
minimize out of stock production.