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  • Decision Theory - Excel

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    Destri Syana Narulita
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    The document discusses various decision theory models - maximax, maximin, Laplace - to evaluate investment options when interest rates may be low, stable, or high. It considers projects like parks, buildings, warehouses, malls, and condominiums. Tables show the expected monetary value and expected opportunity loss for each project and interest rate scenario. Based on the different decision criteria, the best investment is a park under the maximax criterion and a warehouse under maximin and Laplace. Costs of building materials for different property types are also presented.

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    Decision Theory.excel

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    The document discusses various decision theory models - maximax, maximin, Laplace - to evaluate investment options when interest rates may be low, stable, or high. It considers projects like parks, buildings, warehouses, malls, and condominiums. Tables show the expected monetary value and expected opportunity loss for each project and interest rate scenario. Based on the different decision criteria, the best investment is a park under the maximax criterion and a warehouse under maximin and Laplace. Costs of building materials for different property types are also presented.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    10 views3 pages

    Decision Theory - Excel

    Uploaded by

    Destri Syana Narulita
    The document discusses various decision theory models - maximax, maximin, Laplace - to evaluate investment options when interest rates may be low, stable, or high. It considers projects like parks, buildings, warehouses, malls, and condominiums. Tables show the expected monetary value and expected opportunity loss for each project and interest rate scenario. Based on the different decision criteria, the best investment is a park under the maximax criterion and a warehouse under maximin and Laplace. Costs of building materials for different property types are also presented.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 3

    DECISION THEORY

    Proyek Bunga Turun Bunga Tetap Bunga Naik


    Taman Kantor 0.5 1.7 4.5
    Bangunan 1.5 1.9 2.5
    Kantor
    Gudang 1.7 1.4 1
    Mal 0.7 2.4 3.6
    Kondominium 3.2 1.5 0.6
    PIIHAN

    Maximax
    Proyek Bunga Turun Bunga Tetap Bunga Naik Maximax Regret

    Taman Kantor 2.7 0.7 0 2.7


    Bangunan 1.7 0.5 2
    Kantor 2
    Gudang 1.5 1 3.5 3.5
    Mal 2.5 0 0.9 2.5
    Kondominium 0 0.9 3.9 3.9
    PILIHAN 3.9

    Tabel Pay
    of
    Proyek Bunga Turun Bunga Tetap Bunga Naik
    EMV
    Probabilitas 0.45 0.3
    Taman Kantor 0.5 1.7 4.5 5.235
    Bangunan 1.5 1.9 2.5
    Kantor 3.745
    Gudang 1.7 1.4 1 2.185
    Mal 0.7 2.4 3.6 4.635
    Kondominium 3.2 1.5 0.6 2.49
    Pilihan 5.235

    Tabel Regret
    Proyek Bunga Turun Bunga Tetap Bunga Naik
    EOL
    Probabilitas 0.45 0.3
    Taman Kantor 2.7 0.7 0 1.425
    Bangunan 1.7 0.5 2 2.915
    Kantor
    Gudang 1.5 1 3.5 4.475
    Mal 2.5 0 0.9 2.025
    Kondominium 0 0.9 3.9 4.17
    Pilihan 4.475

    Pilihan Investasi
    Proyek Bunga Turun Bunga Tetap Bunga Naik MAXIMAX MAXIMIN LAPLACE
    Taman Kantor 0.5 1.7 4.5 4.5 0.5 2.23
    Bangunan 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.97
    Kantor
    Gudang 1.7 1.4 1 1.7 1 1.37
    Mal 0.7 2.4 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.23
    Kondominium 3.2 1.5 0.6 3.2 0.6 1.77
    PIIHAN 4.5 1.5 2.23
    Biaya bahan bangunan
    Keputusan
    Stabil Naik
    Real Estate $ 70.000 $ 30.000
    Pusat Perbelanjaan 105,000 20,000
    Menyewakan peralatan 40,000 40,000

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