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Solutions To Production
Solutions To Production
MANAGEMENT
Brad Fink
28 February 2013
Project Management
Executive Summary
David Carhart runs a consulting company; his new project has several activities that need to be
completed in order to finish a new project. David needs to know how long this project will take
to complete as well as identifying which activities are critical. The route chosen is to draw an
Activity-on-Node Network Diagram.
The District Manager needs to know what the critical path is on a new project as well as the
length of the critical path. Having been tasked to provide this information, the best possible
solution is to draw an activity-on-arrow network diagram.
Robert Klassen, owner of an Ontario factory has provided data for the activity time estimates on
one of his production lines. Robert wants a product so he can visually see each activity with the
critical paths during the process and what the expected time of completion may be. He would
also like some type of work process chart to post on the company bulletin board for his
employees to view at as well.
Andrea McGee of McGee Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices. She has a
concern with the amount of time that it is taking to complete the projects as of late due to some
of her employees being unreliable. A list of activities along with the optimistic, most likely and
pessimistic times has been provided. Andrea wants to know what the completion time will be as
well as the variance for each activity, the total project completion time with the critical path, and
what the probability of finishing the project in Forty days or less.
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Contents
Summary .......................................................................................................................................23
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To help identify David’s needs the following data in Table 1 has been provided in order to help
draw an Activity-on Node Network Diagram shown in Figure 1.
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B D G
Start A E Start
C F
Starting with activity A, take the activity time which is three days, add that to the ES which is
zero, since activity A has no predecessor, this will give activity A an earliest end time of three
days. Continuing left to right the next activity’s earliest start time will be the previous activity’s
earliest end time. Referring to Figure 1, notice that H has two different arrows pointing towards
it, one from activity E and activity F, activity H will have an ES of whichever EF is greater, in
this case it will be activity F. Moving left to right and following the arrows, simply continue to
fill in the blanks until the last activity is reached. Since activity H is the last activity the LF and
LS need to be figured.
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Notice that activity H has an LF time of 21, this is actual work days, this does not take in account
of weekends or holidays, the actual calendar view will essentially be 28 days. Also, on the
furthest right column all the critical paths are given, for Davis all activities with the exception of
activity E are critical activities.
For a better birds-eye view, Figure 3 can be a much easier way for managers to map and
calculate all activities in a project.
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3 4 7 7 6 13 13 6 19
B D G
3 0 7 7 0 13 13 0 19
0 3 3 7 4 11 FINISH
START A E
0 0 3 9 2 13
13 8 21
3 6 9 H
C 13 0 21
3 0 9
9 4 13
F
Early Start Duration Early Finish 9 0 13
Task Name
Figure 3 is the same activity-on-node as shown in Figure 1 except this one uses boxes with each
activities (ES, EF, LS and LF) just another way to help managers see the big picture. The red
arrows also indicate which activity is part of the critical path as well.
Some might ask, why is activity E not part of the critical path, the reason for this is it has a slack
time of two days, so activity E can be delayed for two days without disrupting the actual
completion time of the entire project.
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There are many ways to give them a visual look, but the activity-on-arrow network diagram
is being used for the ease of understandability of all employees which can viewed in Figure 4.
D
B
5
2
H
A
B
2 3 Finish
5
Start I
A E 5
5 G
5 2
C
4 F
5
Besides just the diagram, some other information is needed for management. Information such
as; which activity or activities are on a critical path and what is the length of the critical path.
The critical path is vital to a project, if there is any delay during one of the activities on a critical
path, this could end up being a show stopper.
The best way to find the answers is to use a time computation chart, this will show all the
earliest start time (ES), the latest start time (LS), the earliest finish time (EF), and the latest finish
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Time in Critical
Activity Pred. ES EF LS LF SLACK
Days Path
A 5 N/A 0 5 0 5 0 Yes
B 2 A 5 7 6 8 1 No
C 4 A 5 9 5 9 0 Yes
D 5 B 7 12 8 13 1 No
E 5 B 7 12 9 14 2 No
F 5 C 9 14 9 14 0 Yes
G 2 E,F 14 16 14 16 0 Yes
H 3 D 1 15 13 16 1 No
I 5 G,H 16 21 16 21 0 Yes
Table 3 –Activity-on-Arrow Time Computation Chart
Looking back at Figure 4 the critical path is displayed with red arrows as well as seen in Table 3.
Notice that the slack time is zero when there is a critical path. This means in laymen terms; there
is no room for error during that particular activity. To find the length of the critical path, add up
activities (B, D, and H), these three activities are on a direct path to the finish activity. The length
of the critical path is 3 days.
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0 6 Hours 6 6 5 11
17 7.7 24.7 24.7 4 28.7
Activity A Activity C
Activity F Activity G
0 0 6 6 0 11
17 0 24.7 24.7 0 28.7
0 7.2 7.2 11 6 17
Activity B Activity D
3.8 3.8 11 11 0 17
11 4.5 15.5
This is only the first part of what David needs, and by using this diagram, it will make finding
the critical path easier, which is the next part. Based off Figure 5, the times needed to find the
critical path has already been identified, all that is needed is some simple math; in Table 5 the
spreadsheet will provide all the relevant data showing the critical path(s).
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Time in Critical
Activity Pred. ES EF LS LF SLACK
Days Path
A 6.0 N/A 0 6.0 0.0 6 0 Yes
B 7.2 N/A 0 7.2 3.8 11 3.8 No
C 5.0 A 6 11.0 6.0 11.0 0 Yes
D 6.0 B,C 11 17.0 11.0 17 0 Yes
E 4.5 B,C 11 15.5 20.2 24.7 9.2 No
F 7.7 D 17 24.7 17.0 24.7 0 Yes
G 4.0 E,F 24.7 28.7 24.7 28.7 0 Yes
Table 5 –Klassen’s Factory Time Computation
Looking at Table 5 there is more than one thing that will answer most of David’s questions. At
the bottom of the column indicated by (LF), the number 28.7 is the total number of hours to
complete all activities. Secondly, the critical paths are easily identified under the (Slack)
column, all slack times with zero are considered to be on a critical path, in this case activities (A,
C, F and G) are the critical paths.
Another way to look at how each activity works hand in hand with the other activities is seen
through a (Gantt) chart; named after Henry Gantt. This chart is very common due to the fact it
usually follows along or in some instances placed on a calendar. The thought here is, if you can
look and understand a calendar, you will be able to look and understand a Gantt chart. Figure 6
shows exactly what a Gantt chart looks like pertaining to Robert’s needs.
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Again, looking at the Gantt chart in Figure 6, the activities (A and B) can easily be seen starting
at the same time with activity C starting when they are finished. Activities (D and E) start as
soon as activity C is complete. Since activity D is longer, activity F will start as soon as activity
D is complete. Lastly, activity G will begin as soon as activity F is complete.
In the Gantt chart, on each activity bar, the number of hours is projected; showing how long each
task is supposed to take. At the very top of the chart just above activity A is the task summary
timeline bar which shows how long all tasks summed up will take, again this shows that all tasks
will take 28.7 hours.
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To start this off there are some issues that need to be addresses, these concern the three different
times that will determine the expected time of completion and help derive to the variance of each
activity.
In Table 7, the three time required to find the information are provided, they are times (A, B and
M). Using a little math, all the data needed is simple enough, but first we need to understand
what the times given represent.
Time A is the optimistic time an activity will take if everything goes as planned, in
estimating this value, there should be only 1/100 chance that the time will actually be less
than time A.
Time B is the pessimistic time an activity will take assuming very unfavorable conditions
exists. While estimating this value, there should be only a small probability of again
1/100 chance the activity time will be greater than time B.
Time M is the most likely time, or the most reliable estimate of the time required to
complete an activity.
To figure out what each activity’s expected completion times will be, as stated earlier, an easy
mathematical calculation must be performed. The expected completion time equals (Time A
plus 4 times time M plus time B) divided by 6. Since the most likely time M is the most
realistic, its value is four times greater than the other two times, hence multiplying it by four.
Looking at activity A, the formula will look like 3+4*6+8/6 which equals 5.83; this is the
expected completion time of activity A. Table 6 will provide the rest of the expected times for
each activity.
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Table 7 –
Expected Completion Times Expected
Variance Times Completion
Expected Time
Activity Predecessor A M B
Activity A N/A 3 6 8 5.83
Completion B N/A 2 4 4 3.67
Times C N/A 1 2 3 2.00
D C 6 7 8 7.00
E B,D 2 4 6 4.00
F A,E 6 10 14 10.00
G A,E 1 2 4 2.17
H F 3 6 9 6.00
I G 10 11 12 11.00
J C 14 16 20 16.33
K H,I 2 8 10 7.33
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Activity Variance
Variance Times Variance
Activity Predecessor A M B Table 8 –Activity
A N/A 3 6 8 0.69
Variance
B N/A 2 4 4 0.11
C N/A 1 2 3 0.11
D C 6 7 8 0.11
E B,D 2 4 6 0.44
F A,E 6 10 14 1.78
G A,E 1 2 4 0.25
H F 3 6 9 1.00
I G 10 11 12 0.11
J C 14 16 20 1.00
K H,I 2 8 10 1.78
With the expected completion times and the variance complete, the next step to Andrea needs to
do is find the (ES, LS, ES and EF) times, the critical path(s), the total project completion time
and the slack times. This may sound overwhelming, however, with the right tool all this can be
accomplished in one easy process, and that tool is the activity-on-node network diagram shown
in Figure 7 with all corresponding data in Table 9.
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0 5.83 5.83
A
7.17 7.17 13
13 10 23 23 6 29
F H
13 0 23 23 0 29
29 7.33 36.33
K
13 2.17 15.17 15.17 11 26.17 29 0 36.33
G I
15.83 2.83 18 18 2.83 29
0 3.67 3.67
B 9 4 13
5.33 5.33 9 E
9 0 13
0 2 2 2 7 9
C D Early Start Duration Early Finish
0 0 2 2 0 9
LEGEND
Late Start Slack Late Finish
2 16.33 18.33
J
2 0 18.33
Figure 7 is only a tool to help get the real information needed, all the data in each node is easily
entered into a spreadsheet to find all the information Andrea needs which is below in Table 9.
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Time in Critical
Activity Predecessors ES EF LS LF SLACK
Days Path
A 28.3 N/A 0 5.83 7.17 13 7.17 No
B 18.7 N/A 0 3.67 5.33 9 5.33 No
C 9.5 N/A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
D 35.3 C 2 9 2 9 0 Yes
E 19.0 B,D 9 13 9 13 0 Yes
F 48.3 A,E 13 23 13 23 0 Yes
G 9.7 A,E 13 15.17 15.83 18 2.83 No
H 28.5 F 23 29 23 29 0 Yes
I 56 G 15.17 26.17 18 29 2.83 No
J 81.33 C 2 18.33 2 18.33 0 Yes
K 35.67 H,I 29 36.33 29 36.33 0 Yes
Table 9 –Computation Times
In Table 9, all the times need for Andrea are easily viewed, however the real important times are
the total project completion times which is highlighted in green under the LF column. Next to
the LF column is the slack times, notice that all slack times of zero are also a (Yes) in the critical
path column, so activities (C,D,E,F,H,J and K) are all part of the critical path, this can also be
seen by looking at the red arrows back in Figure 7.
Now that all times have been computed, the critical paths have been identified; Andrea’s last
question can be answered. What is the probability that McGee Carpet and Trim will finish the
project in 40 days or less? Again a little math is needed, to find the answer Andrea must first
add up all the variances on the critical paths which are; (0.11, 0.11, 0.44, 1.78, 1.0, 1.0 and 1.78)
which sums up to 6.22. Next is to find the project standard deviation, which is taking the sum of
all critical path variances and getting the square root, √6.22 with a result of 2.49 days. So now
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-1.6 0.05480 0.05370 0.05262 0.05155 0.05050 0.04947 0.04846 0.04746 0.04648
-1.5 0.06681 0.06552 0.06426 0.06301 0.06178 0.06057 0.05938 0.05821 0.05705
-1.4 0.08076 0.07927 0.07780 0.07636 0.07493 0.07353 0.07215 0.07078 0.06944
-1.3 0.09680 0.09510 0.09342 0.09176 0.09012 0.08851 0.08691 0.08534 0.08379
-1.2 0.11507 0.11314 0.11123 0.10935 0.10749 0.10565 0.10383 0.10204 0.10027
-1.1 0.13567 0.13350 0.13136 0.12924 0.12714 0.12507 0.12302 0.12100 0.11900
-1 0.15866 0.15625 0.15386 0.15151 0.14917 0.14686 0.14457 0.14231 0.14007
Table 10 –Z Table
Since Andrea has a value of 1.47 she needs to look at the Z Table and scroll down until she
reaches 1.4, then scroll right until she reaches the 0.07 column, circled in red, the number that
links the 1.4 row and the 0.07 column is 0.07078; multiply that by 100 and Andrea has a 7.08%
chance of finishing within Forty days or less.
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Fennema Construction
Bill Fennema has spent an exhausting amount of time developing tasks, the tasks duration times
and which tasks are to be completed in a sequenced order. Bill has provided this data to have an
activity-on-node network (AON) diagram be drawn. With the AON diagram he has also asked
for the expected time of completion for activity C as well as its variance. Figure 8 with start this
process with the AON Diagram.
1 2 5
3 6 8
4 10 11
Notice in Figure 8 that instead of each node containing letters representing each activity, they are
now represented by numbers; 1 represents activity A and 11 representing activity K. This style
of activity numbering will help Bill recognize the tasks he is used to using. The critical path is
symbolized by the nodes in red. The critical paths in Figure 8 are (A, C, F, H, J and K)
The piece of information Bill needs, is to find the expected time of completion for activity C, this
can be done with little effort utilizing an Excel spreadsheet, and Table 11 will show all expected
completion times, however only activity C will be highlighted.
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Fennema Construction
Bill now has the expected time of completion not only for activity C, but all activities involved
with the project. All of the expected completion times were computed using the optimistic time
(A), most likely time (M) and pessimistic time (B) which Bill provided in his data. The next bit
of information needed is the variance of activity C, again the spreadsheet will easily configure
this shown in Table 12 below.
Fennema Construction
Now that Bill knows what the activity-on-node looks like, what the critical path is, the expected
completion time for activity C as well as its variance, the estimated time of the critical path and
activity variance along the critical path is needed. To complete this, the Gantt chart will become
extremely useful; Figure 9 will show the critical activities along with the expected completion
times.
Looking at Figure 9, there are only six activities; these particular activities are on the critical path
of the project. The estimated time of completion can be seen on the top summary bar; in this
case the estimated completion time is 40.18 (Questionable) weeks. The reason for the question
mark is that this is in fact an estimated time. Since the current subject is “critical path”, the next
relevant topic is the variance of the critical path. Looking back to Table 12, when summing up
all of the variances on the critical path the total will end up being 10.03, refer to Table 13.
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Fennema Construction
Another piece of information Bill needs to know is the possibility of completing the project
before week 36, looking at Table 13 above, take the 10.03 variance and calculate the square root,
which is the standard deviation of 3.17.
Using a calculator, subtract the expected completion time of 40.18 weeks from the 36 weeks Bill
is striving for, the result is -4.18, this is the Z value, divide the Z value by the standard deviation
and the final calculation is -1.32. Looking at the Z Table, in Figure 14 go down the Z column
until -1.3 is reached, move to the right under the column heading of 0.02, the result is 0.09342,
multiply that by 100 and the probability is 9.34% chance of completing the project before week
36.
Summary
As managers, it is necessary to realize all the tools available on the market that will assist them
in producing vivid and explosive reports. More importantly is knowing when and how to use
these applications. In the case of David Carhart and Andrea McGee, the tools of choice were an
Excel spreadsheet and Visio, the importance of knowing not only how to use the basic functions
of an application, but how to master them can be the difference between a poor document and an
eye opening report.
In the case of Robert Klassen and Fennema Construction, not only were Visio and a spreadsheet
were used, but also an application called Project was utilized, as most can understand, knowing
more than one application and using more than just one can have a much greater impact on the
upper management and the decision they face during that crucial time of an approval or
disapproval.
The old saying “If you don’t use it, you lose it” is as true today as when it was first said. If
current managers do not use the applications designed to direct them into better managers, there
are always others behind them ready to get their chance at managing and climbing up the
corporate ladder. The managers who choose not to utilize the tools or refuse to train themselves
will lose all the vital skills necessary to become professionally proficient. For those managers
who do take the time and conduct their own professional development, not only will their
employees look at them with confidence, but maybe, just maybe so will the corporate
supervisors.
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