Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Using guidelines: Some organizations, like the DOD, provide guidelines for preparing
WBSs
The analogy approach: Review WBSs of similar projects and tailor to your project
The top-down approach: Start with the largest items of the project and break them
down
The bottom-up approach: Start with the specific tasks and roll them up
Mind-mapping approach: Mind mapping is a technique that uses branches radiating
out from a core idea to structure thoughts and ideas
PERT deals with the problem of uncertainty in the activity time. It helps to co-ordinate the
activities successfully to accomplish the objectives of a project on time. It acts as a effective tool
for decision making In pert the activity time usually expressed in calendar weeks.
Advantages
• This technique helps the management to plan the best possible use resouces to a given
goal within the time and cost limitations.
• It process for the right action point and at right time in the organization.
• It provides information on existence of slack period between activies and what activities
are crucial in terms of time to complete project.
Limitations
• The basic difficulty comes in the way of time estimate for the completion of activities
because activites are non-repetitive type.
• The technique does not consider resources required at various stages of the project.
• Use of this technique for active control of a project requires frequent updating a revising
the PERT calculations and this provesquite a costly affair.
• Cut time required for routine decisions,but allow more time for critical decision-makings.
Network fundamentals:
Event:
Activity:
Activity is the work required to proceed from one event to another It consumes therefore time
and resources. It is represented by an arrow(->)
• To draw network diagram an interdependencies between events and activites must be
identified so that master plan can be developed which illustrate the up-to-date picture of
operations during the project.
• Network analysis provides valuable information for planning, integration of plans, time
scheduling, and resource management.
Network Rules:
• Note More than one activity can have the same preceding and succeeding event
Event:
An event is defined as the starting or ending point of an activity or a group of activites. It
represents a milestone and does not consume time or resources. Event is described by a circle
(o).
Activity:
Activity is the work required to proceed from one event to another It consumes therefore time
and resources. It is represented by an arrow(->)
• Network analysis provides valuable information for planning, integration of plans, time
scheduling , and resource management.
Network Rules:
• Note More than one activity can have the same preceding and succeeding event
1. Enumerate all those activities in the Project which needs close monitoring to complete
them in time.
2. Define each activity as Preceding activity (the activity which preceed it). Succeding
activity(the activity which followed). Concurrent activity(the activity that can be done
concurrently)
The estimation of time for the completion of each activity is important in the network analysis.
This can be done using three possible assumptions.
I. Optimistic time(a): This time assumes that everything will go accordingly to with
minimum a mount ofdifficulties and such situation may occur approximately 1 percent
of time.
II. Most pessimistic time(b): This time assumes that every thing will not go according to
plan and that the maximum potential difficulties will develop and may occur
approximately one percent of time .
III. Most likely or normal time(m): This is the time that would most often occur should
this effort be reported over over again. The estimated time of the completion of an
activity is given by: te= (a+4m+b)/6 Where te = estimated time a = most optimistic time
Standard Devation
sd (te) = (b-a)/6
Network
Earliest Starting Time(EST)
EST is the time at which activity can not be started earlier than this time that means it is an
waiting time to start next activity. In the above network, event 4 occurs when activites A(1-
2),B(1-3),C(2-4) and D(3-4) are completed. In other words event 4 occurs when paths (1-2-3-4)
and (1-3-4) are completed and the requirement time for the two paths are 23 and 20 weeks
respectively. In the above network 1-3-4 is the path with longest time (23 weeks).Therefore this
is the EST for the activity F,it mean to start activity F one has to expect to wait 23 weeks.
LST is the time, at which the starting of an activity can not be delayed beyond this time. In other
words it includes non-waiting time. As further delay beyond this time will adverse affect the
project duration. The LST for an event is obtained by making EST and LST is equal for the end
event and calculated by working backward. The path with shortest time among the path is
considered for LST. In this example the LST of an event 2 is 13 since among the two paths 2-5
and 2-4-5, the path2-5 is the shortest. In general the WST of an event is indicated in the left half
of the circle and LST is indicated in the right half of the circle as shown below.
Slack Time:
Slack Time in a network is defined as the difference between Latest Starting Time(LST) and
Earliest Starting Time(EST) of an event.
Slack Time=LST-EST
Slack Time(week) in the
above network for the LST EST Slack(LST-EST)
events 2,3,and 4 are
given below: Events
4 26 23 3
3 18 15 3
2 13 13 0
Critical Path:
The critical path is one having longest-time span through the total system of events. For
example in the above network the possible paths and total time of each path are:
1-2-5 : 28
1-2-3-4-5 : 25
1-3-4-5 : 22
The Critical path in the above network composed of events 1-2-5, being longest time-span
among the three paths. The critical path is vital for successful control of the project because it
provides information to the management on two things: 1. Because there is no slack time in any
of the events on the path, any delay will cause a corresponding delay in the end-date of the
program, unless the delay can recovered during any of the downstream events on the critical
path. 2. Because of the event on this path are the most critical for the success of the project
management must take a hard look at this events, in order to improve the total program. Also if
we want to reduce the total duration of a project we should be able to reduce the time taken
by activity on the critical path.
Calculation of Probability of a Project
Assuming that the probability distribution of activities on the critical path is independent, the
variance of the critical path duration is obtained by adding variances of activities on the critical
path (C.P.) in the above network. A and E are the activities on the critical path.
With the information on mean (m) and s.d (s) for critical path duration, which is assumed as
normally distributed, we can compute the probability of completion of a project by a specific
date (d) from the following steps
Step1: Find Z = (d-m)/sd Where Z is known as standard normal variate with mean and
variance
Step2: Obtain cumulative probability up to z from the table "area under normal curve"
As an illustration consider a dummy network with mean(m) and s.d(s) of a critical path 28
weeks and 3.0 weeks respectively. Then the Probability of completion of a project by certain
Probability of completion of
specified dates are given by: Specified period(d)
Z-value project by a specified
(weeks)
period(d)
(20-28)/3=-
20 0.005
2.67
(25-28)/3=-
25 0.159
1.0
(30-28)/
30 0.73
3=0.67
It is seen from the above table that the project can be completed within 30 weeks with high probability
(0.73).On the other hand it is impossible to complete it within 20 weeks as indicated by the
probability(0.005).
Example A farm manager has undertaken a project on to develop a farm in a regional station. The activites
identified in the project, their interrelationships and the time distribution of each activity is shown in
following activity table.
Preceding
S.No Name of the activity Symbol Time Distribution(weeks)
activity
a m b
1. Land Surveying A - 6 8 11
2. Plan preparartion B A 4 7 10
3. Rock blasting C B 15 20 24
4. Land leveling D C 5 9 12
Drainage channel
5. E D 4 6 10
digging
Stone pitching of
6. F E 12 16 22
drainage channel
7. Digging of wells G B 15 20 30
Laying of irrigation
8. H G 10 12 18
lines
Construction of pump
9. I G 8 14 21
house
Procurement of
10. J G 4 6 8
pumps
11. Installation of pumps K I,J 5 7 12
12. Finishing works L F,H,K 4 6 10
For the above project calculate Expected time(te) and s.d(te) and draw the flow chart,
network and find the critical path. Also calculate the expected time,slacks for each event
and the probability of completion of the project for different periods 60,65,70,75,80,85 ways.
1 A 8 0.83
2 B 7 1.00
3 C 20 1.50
4 D 9 1.20
5 E 6 1.00
6 F 17 1.70
7 G 21 2.50
8 H 13 1.33
9 I 14 2.16
10 J 6 0.67
11 K 8 1.16
12 L 6 1.00
Critical path 0-1-2-3-4-5-9-10
Critical path duration = 73 weeks
Mean duration of C.P: 73 weeks
Sd(c.p) = 3.4 weeks
Now let us find out the probability for the completion of project for specific dates(d)