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NATIONAL TRANSMISSION AND DESPATCH

COMPANY LTD. PAKISTAN
ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST

Based On Regression Analysis
(Period 2008 to 2030)
OFFICE OF G.M. PLANNING POWER

NTDC / PEPCO WAPDA HOUSE LAHORE
February 2008
Table of Contents
Number Title Page No.

Glossary of Abbreviations 2
List of Tables 3
List of Figures 4
Executive Summary 5-6
1. Introduction 7
1.1 Background 7
1.2 Strategy 7-8
2. Historical Power System Supply And Demand Analysis 9
2.1 Supply Pattern 9
2.1.1 Load Shedding 9
2.1.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses 9
2.1.3 System Load Factor 11
2.1.4 Demand Side Management 12
2.2 Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise) 12
3. Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast 14
3.1 Regression Methodology 14
3.1.1 Parameters of Regression 14
3.2 Regression Relationships 15
3.3 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class 15
3.3.1 Low, Normal and High Scenarios 15
3.4 Projections of Independent Variables 15
3.5 Regression Results 16
3.6 Generation Forecast 17
3.6.1 Projection of Losses 17
3.6.2 Projection of Load Factor 17
3.7 Forecast Results 18
3.8 Forecast with DSM 18
3.9 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales) 18
Glossary of Abbreviations
Sr. No. Abbreviations Full Word

1 AGR Agriculture
2 COM Commercial
3 DSM Demand Side Management
4 Exp. to KESC Export to Karachi Electric Supply Company
5 GDP Gross Domestic Product
6 GoP Government of Pakistan
7 GR Growth Rate
8 GWh Gega Watt Hour
9 IND Industrial
10 IPPs Independent Power Producer
11 KESC Karachi Electric Supply Company
12 MkWh Million Kilo Watt Hour
13 NPP National Power Plan
14 PEPCO Pakistan Electric Power Company
15 PIDE Pakistan Institute Development Economic
16 PMS Power Market Survey
17 POP Population
18 Ps/KWh Paisa Per Kilo Watt Hour
List of Tables
Number Title
1 Summary of Forecast Results – (Country)
2-1 Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses
2-2 PEPCO Load Factor (Historical)
2-3 KESC Load Factor (Historical)
2-4 Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh)
3-1 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class
3-2 Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low
3-3 Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal
3-4 Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High
3-5 Projected GDP Growth Rates
3-6(a) Actual Population and Customers – Country (1970-2007)
3-6(b) Projected Population and Customers – Country (2008-2030)
3-7 Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – Low
3-8 Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – Normal
3-9 Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO and KESC) – High
3-10 Load Forecast (PEPCO) – Low
3-11 Load Forecast (PEPCO) – Normal
3-12 Load Forecast (PEPCO) – High
3-13 Load Forecast (KESC) – Low
3-14 Load Forecast (KESC) – Normal
3-15 Load Forecast (KESC) – High
3-16 Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – Low
3-17 Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – Normal
3-18 Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country – High
3-19 Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM
List of Figures
Number Title
1 Summary of Forecast Results – Country
2-1 Province wise share in Energy Sale
2-2 Energy Share in Sales (Category wise)
3-1 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)
Executive Summary
The growth in electric energy use in Pakistan is expected to remain high for many years to come,
and, by 2030, total demand is expected to increase by factors of between 5.6 to 8.2 times over the
present year 2007 level i.e. 18,883 MW. This implies average annual growth rates of between
7.8% and 9.6% of the low and high scenarios of demand respectively. Demand for electric
energy grew at an annual rate of 8.8% for the normal scenario during the period from 2007 to
2030. Many factors influence the load growth, and as these factors are difficult to predict, future
load growth is potentially very variable, hence, needs review periodically. The longer-term
forecast was based on historic relationships between past consumption, economic growth and
number of customers.
The study determined that there was a very significant potential to improve the efficiency of
energy use through programs of DSM. Experience in other countries shows that important capital
and operating cost savings for the electric sector can be obtained through DSM. This study
recommends that Pakistan commit to an aggressive DSM program immediately. A forecast,
including the potential impact of DSM, was prepared and is given in Table 3-19.
The methodology employed in this report is multiple regression technique. The overall energy
demand projections are achieved by summing the forecasted individual category-wise energy
demands (i.e. Domestic, Commercial, Industrial, Agricultural, Traction, Street light and Bulk).
The power demand is thereafter evaluated by adding appropriate losses and employing a suitable
load factor on yearly basis. Three scenarios of the load forecast are illustrated graphically in the
Figure below.
Figure – 1
Load Forecast
FIG 1
Summary Of Forecast Results (MW) - Country
160000
140000
120000
Megawatts(MW)
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Years Low Normal High

In the year 2030, under Normal scenario the forecast for Peak Demand is 1,13,695 MW, nearly
15.2 % higher than Low scenario (98,557 MW) and nearly 21.8 % lower than High scenario
(1,45,304 MW). The three principal energy and demand forecasts for the country including
KESC are summarized in the Table below.
Table - 1
Summary of Forecast Results
G.R.
Description 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(2007-30)
Sale (GWh)
Low Scenario 83463 112311 176178 261042 370882 500117 8.1%
Normal Scenario 83463 112955 181018 276937 409874 578560 8.8%
High Scenario 92647 113355 185239 295706 470527 735592 9.9%
Generation (GWh)
Low Scenario 111078 143910 212724 307328 436911 589460 7.5%
Normal Scenario 111078 144711 218448 325740 482080 680330 8.2%
High Scenario 111078 145233 223618 348182 554680 868434 9.4%
Peak Demand (MW)
Low Scenario 18883 24339 35271 51296 73041 98557 7.4%
Normal Scenario 18883 24474 36217 54359 80566 113695 8.1%
High Scenario 18883 24562 37075 58120 92762 145304 9.3%
In addition to the above, an overview of load, losses and system demand for the three scenarios
(Low, Normal, High) in the form of MW is depicted in tables Table-1(A), Table-1(B), Table-
1(C) receptively.
The forecast can be used for generation planning, however, for transmission planning during the
medium term period (2008-2014) PMS (Power Market Survey) forecast (Grid wise demand)
would be advisable and appropriate to be referred, which is in process of development.
It is important to note that in long term planning, a range of forecast is typically developed to
bracket the expectations about higher and lower scenarios for load growth. The longer the
forecast period, the greater is the uncertainty. However to reduce the uncertainty, it is
recommended that Normal scenario should be considered as base case.
Table-1 (A)
Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Low

(MW)
Year
Year
Description
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Description
Load 11365 12519 13719 15011 16346 17746 19225 20817 22678 24618 26652 28808 31108 33561 36133 38837 41700 44661 47751 50977 54243 57569 61011 64606
Transmission 1000 1034 1061 1084 1098 1105 1105 1099 1093 1077 1049 1011 1092 1178 1268 1363 1463 1567 1676 1789 1903 2020 2141 2267
Distribution 2242 2337 2420 2496 2557 2605 2642 2670 2705 2721 2717 2696 2911 3140 3381 3634 3902 4179 4468 4770 5076 5387 5709 6045
Losses
Auxiliary 531 577 625 675 727 779 834 893 962 1032 1105 1181 1275 1376 1481 1592 1710 1831 1958 2090 2224 2360 2501 2649
Total Losses 3773 3949 4105 4255 4381 4489 4581 4661 4760 4829 4871 4888 5278 5694 6130 6589 7075 7577 8101 8649 9203 9767 10351 10961
System Demand 15138 16468 17824 19266 20728 22235 23805 25479 27437 29447 31523 33696 36386 39255 42264 45426 48774 52239 55852 59626 63445 67337 71362 75567
Table-1 (B)
Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Normal

(MW)
Year
Year
Description
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Description
Load 11365 12531 13752 15078 16462 17926 19483 21177 23167 25266 27481 29853 32408 35166 38094 41196 44523 48016 51688 55571 59586 63674 67971 72527
Transmission 1000 1035 1064 1088 1106 1116 1119 1118 1117 1105 1082 1048 1137 1234 1337 1446 1562 1685 1814 1950 2091 2234 2385 2545
Distribution 2242 2340 2425 2507 2575 2632 2677 2716 2763 2792 2802 2793 3033 3291 3565 3855 4166 4493 4837 5200 5576 5958 6360 6787
Losses
Auxiliary 531 578 626 678 732 787 846 908 982 1059 1139 1224 1329 1442 1562 1689 1825 1969 2119 2278 2443 2610 2787 2973
Total Losses 3773 3953 4115 4274 4412 4535 4642 4742 4862 4957 5023 5065 5498 5966 6463 6989 7554 8146 8769 9428 10109 10803 11532 12305
System Demand 15138 16484 17868 19352 20874 22460 24126 25919 28029 30223 32504 34918 37907 41132 44557 48185 52077 56163 60458 65000 69696 74477 79503 84832
Table-1 C
Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - High

(MW)
Year
Year
Description
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30
Description
Load 11365 12540 13777 15132 16561 18090 19738 21557 23718 26036 28535 31267 34281 37616 41252 45229 49628 54393 59601 65317 71419 77963 85110 93010
Transmission 1000 1036 1065 1092 1112 1126 1134 1138 1143 1139 1123 1097 1203 1320 1448 1587 1741 1909 2091 2292 2506 2736 2986 3264
Distribution 2242 2341 2430 2516 2590 2656 2712 2764 2829 2877 2909 2926 3208 3520 3860 4232 4644 5090 5577 6112 6683 7295 7964 8703
Losses
Auxiliary 531 578 627 681 736 794 857 925 1006 1092 1183 1282 1405 1542 1691 1854 2035 2230 2444 2678 2928 3196 3489 3813
Total Losses 3773 3955 4123 4289 4439 4576 4703 4827 4978 5108 5215 5305 5816 6382 6999 7674 8420 9228 10112 11082 12117 13227 14440 15780
System Demand 15138 16495 17899 19422 21000 22666 24441 26383 28696 31143 33750 36572 40097 43998 48251 52902 58048 63622 69713 76399 83536 91191 99550 108791
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
The power system planning broadly covers three segments of an electric power network
namely Generation, Transmission and Distribution facilities. The developments in these
sub-sectors whereas depend on many diverse parameters are also governed by the growth
of economic parameters in domestic, commercial, agricultural and industrial sectors. The
supply-side potential has to be assessed and developed to fulfil the demand side
requirements, and side by side the interconnected system of transmission lines has to be
developed to transmit the generated power to load centres.
The load forecasting has always been the basis of additions of generation plants and
transmission lines in any grid system. WAPDA was created in 1958 and at that time
Pakistan was quite under developed and the total demand of WAPDA was around 100
MW. All along these years the country has been passing through different stages of
development and the peak load met during 2006-07 was 14,941 MW. However a lot of
hydro developments along upper Indus are yet to be carried out, indigenous coal
resources are to be harnessed for power generation and import of power from
neighbouring countries are options which may also be considered. This undoubtedly will
involve huge expenditures which will necessitate least cost options to be adopted after
assessing the future loads and developing a long range power plan to meet demand
targets.
1.2 Strategy
The load forecasting is the fundamental element of power planning involving prediction
of the future levels of power demand to serve as the basis for supply-side and demand
side planning. Load forecasts are prepared for different time frames and level of detail.
Generation planning requires a system level forecast of total generation requirements.
Transmission and distribution planning requires far more load-levels and geographic
details to assess the location, timing and loading of individual lines and transformation
facilities. The load forecast is also used in demand-side management, revenue estimation
and financial planning.
The long-term forecast (2008 to 2030) presented in this report is based on a regression
analysis of past consumption trends and relationships. The long range forecast is
appropriate for generation planning. Segregation of the forecast into load centres and
grid stations is based on PMS model considering developments in sub-sectors of industry,
commerce, agriculture and domestic which have been taking place in a random fashion.
In view of this an extensive data has to be collected for PMS model. Originally data used
to be collected by PMS subdivisions and forwarded to divisional office in Lahore for
final processing.
The data collected for existing loads includes consumption by customer types defined as
domestic, commercial, small industrial, large industrial, tube wells, public lighting and
traction. Energy forecasts are computed for each consumption category at the sub-area
level on the basis of trend analysis per customer sales including new developments in
industrial, domestic and commercial sub-sectors. Industrial, commercial and domestic
load forecasts include interviews, trend projections and a review of the applications for
new and increased service. Customer growth factors, load factors, and diversity factors
are applied separately to estimate the distribution of demand by grid station.
A detailed regression analysis involves the review of fundamental quantitative
relationships in the electricity demand of Pakistan and the related independent variables
in the data like electricity price, sectoral GDP, population etc.
As historical load-shedding estimates are included in the data base, the resulting
equations predict the energy that will be supplied if PEPCO system has no technical or
supply constraints.
This report provides detailed load forecast for PEPCO, KESC and Country for years from
2008 to 2030. The country level forecast has not been disaggregated at grid station level.
It will be undertaken subsequently in the next step.
2. Historical Power System Supply And Demand
Analysis
2.1 Supply Pattern
Supply characteristics such as load shedding practices, auxiliary, transmission &
distribution losses and the system load factor are essential ingredients needed to forecast
generation as well as electricity demand requirements.
2.1.1 Load Shedding
PEPCO and KESC systems are currently supply constrained in both capacity and
transmission capability necessitating selective interruption of supply seasonally at peak
and during off-peak periods as well. Load shedding will continue until sufficient
additional capacity can be brought on line to recover suppressed demand and satisfy new
growth.
In the meantime several measures, in addition to capacity addition, are proposed and
being implemented on an urgent basis to avert / mitigate the load shedding crises.
Presently NPCC (National Power Control Centre) estimates the daily quantum of demand
/ energy deficit and DISCOs have the responsibility to implement the shedding as per
criteria of distribution of rural / urban and priority feeders. A maximum quantum of 2,546
MW has been shed in year 2007. Following are the main reasons of load shedding:
Reasons of Load Shedding
Sufficient generation capacity has not been added in the National Grid to meet
the load requirements.
Hydro capacity limitations due to water shortages in the reservoirs of Hydel
plants during winter period
Reduced gas quotas for thermal plants in winter due to increased consumption
of gas in domestic sector.
Generation capacity de-ration of old GENCO plants in summer due to weather
conditions
The forecasts developed in this report have accounted for load shedding. It is, therefore,
assumed that the energy demand will be fully met. To that end, the sales data used in the
regression, for example, has been adjusted to include an estimate of the energy shed.
Thus, the sales figures reported here will tend to be higher than the actual level of sales
reported in the “official” NTDC statistics publications.
2.1.2 Transmission and Distribution Losses
During the 1980’s, WAPDA introduced programs to reduce power and energy losses
throughout its system, the implementation of which proved to be quite fruitful. Present
high level of system losses particularly distribution losses suggests that loss reduction
efforts should continue to receive considerable attention in the near term in order to
effectively reduce the cost of electricity to the customers. The following table contains a
summary of energy generation, sale and auxiliary, transmission & distribution losses
since 1997 for both PEPCO and KESC.
Table 2-1
Historical Energy Generation, Sale and Losses
Gross Auxiliary Energy Transmission Distribution Units
Year Generation Consumption sent out Losses Losses sold
(GWh) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh)
PEPCO
1997 50782 1222 2.4 49560 4169 8.2 6862 13.5 38529
1998 53259 1071 2.0 52188 4470 8.4 8296 15.6 39422
1999 53683 935 1.7 52748 4181 7.8 9667 18.0 38900
2000 55873 1200 2.1 54673 4017 7.2 9746 17.4 40910
2001 58455 1173 2.0 57282 4594 7.9 9304 15.9 43384
2002 60860 1318 2.2 59542 4600 7.6 9738 16.0 45204
GR(1997-2002) 3.7% 1.5% 3.7% 2.0% 3.2%
2003 64040 1346 2.1 62694 4908 7.7 10365 16.2 47421
2004 69094 1397 2.0 67697 5054 7.3 11151 16.1 51492
2005 73520 1464 2.0 72056 5467 7.4 11247 15.3 55342
2006 82225 1821 2.2 80404 5839 7.1 12160 14.8 62405
2007 87837 1762 2.0 86075 5709 6.50 12797 14.6 67569
GR(2002-2007) 7.6% 6.0% 7.6% 4.4% 8.4%
KESC
1997 9327 489 6.6 8715 270 2.9 2853 30.6 5640
1998 10348 494 4.8 9854 259 2.5 3125 30.2 6385
1999 10620 470 4.4 10150 266 2.5 3656 34.4 6131
2000 11446 512 4.5 10934 286 2.5 4113 35.9 6430
2001 11677 534 4.6 11143 292 2.5 3810 32.6 6923
2002 12115 568 4.7 11547 303 2.5 4444 36.7 6718
GR(1997-2002) 5.4% 3.0% 5.8% 2.3% 9.3% 3.6%
2003 12616 581 4.6 12035 315 2.5 4594 36.4 6976
2004 13392 662 4.9 12730 335 2.5 4485 33.5 7818
2005 13593 661 4.9 12932 340 2.5 4085 30.1 8416
2006 14500 685 4.7 13815 363 2.5 4393 30.3 9060
2007 14876 639 4.3 14237 372 2.5 4498 30.2 9367
GR(2002-2007) 4.2% 2.4% 4.3% 4.2% 0.2% 6.9%
Source: Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue) & KESC letters.
Note: Gross Generation of PEPCO includes Export to KESC.
Auxiliary losses of IPPs are not included in Gross Generation of PEPCO.
The figures indicate that PEPCO distribution losses dropped from 18 % to 14.6 % of
gross generation during 1999 to 2007. In KESC, distribution losses are significantly high
and range from 30.2% to 36.7% during the past 10 years.
2.1.3 System Load Factor
The annual load factor depends to a high degree on the composition of loads on the
system and how these loads vary seasonally. The load factors for PEPCO and KESC for
the period 2002-2007 are tabulated below. These figures have been calculated on the
basis of computed energy generation and computed peak demand for the two systems i.e.
taking into account the load shedding and excluding import/export of electricity between
PEPCO and KESC.
Table 2-2
PEPCO Load Factor (Historical)
Computed Gross Computed Peak Load Factor
Period
Generation (GWh) Demand (MW) (%)
2001-02 59876 10109 67.6

2002-03 62677 10484 68.2
2003-04 67738 11078 69.8
2004-05 71306 12035 67.6
2005-06 79743 13212 68.9
2006-07 85211 15138 64.3
Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2005-06) 68.4
Note: IPPs auxiliary losses are not included.
Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue) Planning Department NTDC
Table 2-3
KESC Load Factor (Historical)
Gross Generation Peak Demand
Period Load Factor (%)
(GWh) (MW)
2001-02 12115 1885 73.4

2002-03 12617 1973 72.9
2003-04 13389 2073 73.7
2004-05 13593 2197 70.6
2005-06 14500 2223 74.5
2006-07 14876 2349 72.3
Average Load Factor (2001-02 to 2006-07) 72.9
st
Source: Power System Statistics (31 issue) Planning Department NTDC
Load management efforts to reduce or shift industrial loads with non-continuous
processes, and other large tube well use at peak, likely have also contributed to load
factor improvements.
2.1.4 Demand Side Management
Load forecasting must consider changes in both supply-side and demand-side efficiency
as a power system expands over time. Supply-side efficiency is concerned with how well
the technical and non-technical losses on the transmission and distribution system can be
controlled, as well as the relative amount of generator station service consumption and
equipment performance.
The growing attention to demand-side efficiency is motivated by the cost effectiveness of
demand-side management (DSM) in improving the system load factor, and its potential
for reducing overall load growth, while maintaining acceptable levels of service.
Benefits of DSM
Among the benefits are
The potential for deferment or reduction of bulk transmission and generation
investment leading to reduced capital cost.
The deferment of tariff increases.
The reduction of environmental impacts of generation.
The decrease in the cost of power as a proportion of production cost in the
economy.
NTDC has the target to improve the load factor by employing the DSM techniques and
by promoting the Industrial share in the composition of system load. It is expected that
the load factor of the system shall improve to 71% provided the proposed DSM measures
are implemented. The estimated impact of DSM on the load forecast has been considered
in Chapter-3 in future projections.
2.2 Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise)

PEPCO and KESC have detailed statistics on historical electricity sales and number of
consumers for various electricity consuming sectors which capture the combined
influence of the various factors underlying growth in electricity demand. Some of the
salient features of this statistics are summarized in the following paragraphs.
Energy Share in Sales (Province –wise)
The province-wise share of energy sale for the year 2006-07 is shown below in the form
of a pie chart.
Province Wise Share in Energy Sale
KESC
13%
Sindh
excluding
KESC
7%
NWFP
12%
Punjab
Baluchistan 62%
6%
Figure 2-1
Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue)
Planning Department NTDC
The province wise share in energy sales (1997-2007) is shown in the following table.
Table 2-4
Historical Province-Wise Energy Sale (GWh)
Sindh with
Period Punjab Baluchistan NWFP Pakistan
KESC
1997 25119 9513 1666 6638 42936
1998 25639 10526 1704 6794 44663
1999 25214 10248 1687 6243 43392
2000 27033 10117 1822 6528 45500
2001 28796 10718 2138 6843 48495
2002 30565 10441 2552 7000 50558
2003 32355 10618 2864 6759 52596
2004 35399 11572 3267 7230 57468
2005 37706 12424 3500 7648 61278
2006 42024 13511 3834 8260 67629
2007 45389 14210 3968 8464 72031
AAGR(1997-2007) 6.1% 4.1% 9.1% 2.5% 5.3%
Source: Power System Statistics by Planning Power NTDC (31st issue)
Energy Share in Sales (Category –wise)

Following figure shows category wise share in electricity sales for the year 2006-07.
o th e rs
2 1% D o m e s tic
38%
A g ric u lt u re
10 %
In d u s t ria l C o m m e rc ia l
25% 6%
Figure 2-2
Source: Power System Statistics (31st issue)
Planning Department NTDC
3 Long-Term (Regression Based) Load Forecast
The long term forecast is determined through regression analysis of past energy consumption
trends using a statistical data base for WAPDA and KESC system for the period 1970 to 2006
and other government publications and economic statistics. Following the Grid Code NTDC
(clause PC 4.2 of the planning code), three scenarios low, normal and high have been developed
considering economic & demographic factors and tariff etc.
3.1 Regression Methodology

The forecasts of WAPDA and KESC sales by consumption category are determined by
regression equations relating these sales to the growth in a number of independent
variables. Regression analysis is concerned with describing and evaluating the
relationship between a given variable (often called the explained or dependent variable)
and one or more other variables (often called the explanatory or independent variables).
3.1.1 Parameters of Regression

Dependent Variables (Y)
• Electricity consumption (GWh) for various consumer categories including
domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture.
Independent Variables (X)
The potential independent variables (demographic and economic) for regression analysis
included:
• Total GDP
• GDP by major sector (agriculture, manufacturing, trade, services, etc.)
• Electricity revenue per kWh sold by customer class (real price)
• Number of customers by consumption category
Lag variables
In many cases, dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) on another Variable X
(Independent variable) is not instantaneous. Very often Y responds to X with a lapse of
time. Such a lapse of time is called Lag.
Dummy Variable
Dependence of variable Y (Dependent Variable) is not only influenced by variables
which can be quantified on some well defined scale (e.g., income, price, costs, etc.) but
also by variables which are essentially qualitative in nature (e.g., sex, race, colour,
Change in Government Policy, etc.). Such qualitative variables usually indicate presence
or absence of a “quality” by assuming 0 and 1 value and are referred as dummy variables.
3.2 Regression Relationships
Within the regression analysis, each of the independent variables (e.g. population, Gross
Domestic Product, customers etc) was tested as an explanatory variable for the growth
pattern in the dependent variable (Sales). For each combination of dependent and
independent variables tested, the analysis calculates the least squares coefficient relating
the variables and a number of measures (T-statistics, Minimum Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) and minimum probability) of the goodness-of-fit of the
proposed equation. One equation was selected for each major consumption category
(domestic, commercial, industrial and agriculture) for each utility (PEPCO and KESC).
In general the equations were selected on the basis of the equation displaying the “best-
fit” between the sales and the appropriate independent variable.
3.3 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

There are four elasticities corresponding to GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers for
each customer category Domestic, Commercial, Agriculture and Industrial as shown in
Table 3-1.
3.3.1 Low, Normal and High Scenarios.
The modified long term elasticity of each sector was gradually reduced or increased
depending upon the scenario which is explained in detail in the Tables 3-2 to Table 3-4.
3.4 Projections of Independent Variables

Projections of the key independent variables used in the long-term regression model
are as under:
GDP Growth by Sector (Country)
Projected GDP growth rates used in preparing load forecast of energy demand are
based on forecast prepared by planning commission. This economic forecast
provides growth rates by economic sector. The regression equations which utilize
income as an independent variable (GDP as a proxy variable for income) implicitly
assume that historical income and electricity consumption ratio would be applicable
in the future. Given the low relative levels of income measured in per capita terms
and the fact that the per capita income would remain in a low band which
characterizes developing countries of similar economic structure, it is assumed that
income-to-energy consumption relationships will not change appreciable over the
forecast period. The projections of GDP obtained from Planning & Development
Division are presented in Table 3-5.
Electricity Prices
Real changes in future electricity prices will be determined by the cash flow
requirements of the utilities, and this, in turn, will be dependent on the planned
capital investment program. Until the investment program and related revenues are
determined, it is not possible to estimate the impact on electricity sales of real price
changes. In this load forecast, real price changes have been assumed to be zero, in
line with historical tariff increases.
Domestic Customers
The projection of population, domestic and agriculture customer are presented in

Table 3-6. As far as population is concerned, its growth rate for the last three years
was 1.9% and it is applied throughout the forecast period. The domestic customers
are adjusted in order to capture the number of domestic customers present in a
single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme.
Electrified Households.
In 1980 the electrified household percentage was 30% and in 1998 the electrified
households were 70% as reported in the respective census reports. However, the
percentage of electrified households is estimated to be 97% in the year 2030 as
shown in Table 3-6.
Agricultural Customers
The average annual growth rate of last ten years is 3.39 % which has been used
throughout the regression period as shown in Table 3-6.
3.5 Regression Results

Once the growth rates in the independent variables (domestic & agricultural customers,
category wise GDP, etc) are determined, the growth rates for the various consumption
categories are readily calculated using the general equation for the regression analysis
given below:
Y T = YT-1 * (1+GR of G)b *(1+GR of R)C * (1+GR of L) d *(1+GR of C)e
Where in the above equation
Y Represents electricity demand (Sales GWh)
GR Represents Growth Rate
G, R, L,C Represent independent variable (GDP, Real Price, Lag and Customers
respectively)
T Represents current year or time period,
T-1 Represents previous year or time period,
b, c, d, e Represent elasticities of independent variables. (GDP, Real Price, Lag
and Customers respectively)
The category-wise sale (GWh) forecast for the low, normal, and high scenarios of the
country are shown in Table 3-7, Table 3-8 and Table 3-9 respectively with the category-
wise sale (GWh) break up between PEPCO and KESC on the basis of historical share of
each category for the last five years.
3.6 Generation Forecast
In order to work out generation forecast from the energy sale, the important parameters
are power system losses i.e. distribution losses, transmission losses, auxiliary
consumption and load factor for PEPCO and KESC system. These are discussed as
follows:
3.6.1 Projection of Losses
PEPCO System
The present level of PEPCO transmission losses is 6.6% and these losses have been
gradually reduced to 3% from year 2007-08 up to the year 2017-18. Further these are
kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. However the present level of
distribution losses is 14.8%. These losses are reduced gradually upon 8% from the year
2007-08 to 2017-18, and then kept constant up to the year 2029-30. Auxiliary
consumption in PEPCO system at present is 3.5% and is kept constant throughout the
forecast period. These losses reduction pattern is presented in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.
KESC System
Present level of transmission losses (2.5%) is kept constant throughout the forecast
period. The distribution losses have been reduced gradually from 29.7% to 17.5% upto
the year 2014-15 and then these are kept constant for the rest of the forecast period.
Auxiliary consumption in KESC system is kept 4% constant throughout the forecast
period. These are presented in Tables 3-13 to 3-15.
3.6.2 Projections of Load Factor
PEPCO System
The average load factor from the year 2001-02 to 2005-06 comes out to be 68.4%
(Table 2-2). As per discussions in different meetings with Deputy Chief Energy Wing
Planning & Development Division, acting Chief Energy Wing Planning &
Development Division and Manager Generation Planning, the current load factor is
kept constant (65.1%) for the next one years and after that it is increased upto 68% in
the year 2013-14 and then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period. The
projections of load factor for PEPCO are shown in Tables 3-10 to 3-12.
KESC System
The base case load factor 73.6% is reduced gradually to 65% in the year 2020-21 and
then it is kept constant for the rest of the forecast period as per decision in the meeting
with Advisor to KESC on planning and energy. These projections are shown in Tables
3-13 to 3-15.
3.7 Forecast Results
Based on the above system parameters, forecasts of computed energy sale, generation and
peak demand have been developed for PEPCO, KESC and Country.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for PEPCO system, are shown in Table 3-10,
Table 3-11 and Table 3-12 respectively.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for KESC system, are shown in Table 3-13,
Table 3-14 and Table 3-15 respectively.
Three scenarios, Low, Normal and High for the Country are shown in Table 3-16, Table
3-17 and Table 3-18 respectively.
3.8 Forecast with DSM

The impact of DSM on the forecast considering a load factor improvement of 71%, with
the proposed DSM measures, is presented year wise in Table 3-19.
3.9 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

The constitution of loads provides vital information to predict the shape of daily, monthly
and annual load curves. The over all load factor of a system having greater percentage of
domestic load is always less than a system having greater percentage of industrial load.
In addition to this, the economic well being and financial status of a country is assessed
from the constitution of loads i.e. what nature of industrial development is taking place in
the country. In this connection, it is worth while to highlight the composition of loads at
various intervals of the forecast period from 2008 to 2030 in the form of pie chart given
in figure 3-1.
Table 3-1
Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class
Sales Category Variables Elasticities

Domestic GDP Per Capita 0.7226
Real-Price -0.1375
Domestic Sales lag (-2) 0.3287
Domestic Customers Lag (-1) 0.7057
Dummy 0.0000
Constant -11.242
Commercial GDP-Commercial 1.4009

Real-Price Lag (-1) -0.5453
Commercial Sales Lag (-2) 0.3826
Commercial Customers 0.0000
Dummy 0.0000
Constant -11.239
Industrial Industrial GDP Per Capita 1.30922

Real Price With Self Generation -0.44205
Industrial Sales lag 0.00000
Dummy 0.24732
Constant -4.14178
Agriculture GDP-Agriculture 1.16506

Real-Price -0.28023
Agriculture Sales lag 0.00000
Agricultural Customers Lag (-2) 0.73473
Dummy -0.24805
Constant -14.4201
Figures in the brackets are corresponding Lag values

These elasticity coefficients are calculated by Regression Analysis using the software
E-Views on the basis of 1970 to 2006 data.
Dummy variable minimizes the unevenness of the curve at rare places.
Table 3-2
Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Low
GDP Short - term Elasticities(Used) Lag Elasticities GDP Long - Term Elasticities
Year Dom Com Ind Agri Dom Com Ind Agri Dom Com Ind Agri
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2005-06 0.7226 1.4009 1.3092 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3092 1.1651
2006-07 0.7204 1.3683 1.2963 1.1582 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0733 2.2161 1.2963 1.1582
2007-08 0.7183 1.3356 1.2835 1.1513 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0701 2.1633 1.2835 1.1513
2008-09 0.7162 1.3030 1.2706 1.1444 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0669 2.1104 1.2706 1.1444
2009-10 0.7140 1.2703 1.2577 1.1376 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0637 2.0575 1.2577 1.1376
2010-11 0.7119 1.2377 1.2448 1.1307 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0605 2.0046 1.2448 1.1307
2011-12 0.7097 1.2050 1.2319 1.1238 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0573 1.9518 1.2319 1.1238
2012-13 0.7076 1.1724 1.2190 1.1169 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0541 1.8989 1.2190 1.1169
2013-14 0.7055 1.1397 1.2061 1.1100 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0510 1.8460 1.2061 1.1100
2014-15 0.7033 1.1071 1.1933 1.1032 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0478 1.7931 1.1933 1.1032
2015-16 0.7012 1.0744 1.1804 1.0963 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0446 1.7403 1.1804 1.0963
2016-17 0.6991 1.0418 1.1675 1.0894 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0414 1.6874 1.1675 1.0894
2017-18 0.6969 1.0092 1.1546 1.0825 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0382 1.6345 1.1546 1.0825
2018-19 0.6948 0.9765 1.1417 1.0757 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0350 1.5816 1.1417 1.0757
2019-20 0.6926 0.9439 1.1288 1.0688 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0318 1.5288 1.1288 1.0688
2020-21 0.6905 0.9112 1.1160 1.0619 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0287 1.4759 1.1160 1.0619
2021-22 0.6884 0.8786 1.1031 1.0550 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0255 1.4230 1.1031 1.0550
2022-23 0.6862 0.8459 1.0902 1.0481 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0223 1.3701 1.0902 1.0481
2023-24 0.6841 0.8133 1.0773 1.0413 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0191 1.3173 1.0773 1.0413
2024-25 0.6819 0.7806 1.0644 1.0344 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0159 1.2644 1.0644 1.0344
2025-26 0.6798 0.7480 1.0515 1.0275 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0127 1.2115 1.0515 1.0275
2026-27 0.6777 0.7153 1.0387 1.0206 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0096 1.1586 1.0387 1.0206
2027-28 0.6755 0.6827 1.0258 1.0138 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0064 1.1058 1.0258 1.0138
2028-29 0.6734 0.6501 1.0129 1.0069 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0032 1.0529 1.0129 1.0069
2029-30 0.6713 0.6174 1.0000 1.0000 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
1. Elasticities for Domestic, Commercial, Industrial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity assuming saturation, by the year 2030.
2. The exercise has been conducted in consultation with Chief Economist, Planning & Development Division and Energy Wing,Planning Commission of Pakistan.
3. The decreasing pattern of elasticities was suggested by multiple regression analysis conducted for different time series and a similar
study conducted by "Ms. Standard and Poors" ( McGraw Hills Study Division; A Study for Planning and Development Division, Pakistan).
4. GDP short term elasticities for the year 2005-06 and lag elasticities are taken from table 3-1.
5. The long term elasticities for the year 2005-06 are calculated using formula, Long term elasticity = short term elasticity / (1-lag elasticity)
6. The short term elasticities (2006-07 to 2029-30) are converted using the formula, short term elasticity = long term elasticity * (1- lag elasticity)
Table 3-3
Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-Normal
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2005-06 0.7226 1.4009 1.3092 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3092 1.1651
2006-07 0.7204 1.3683 1.3172 1.1582 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0733 2.2161 1.3172 1.1582
2007-08 0.7183 1.3356 1.3251 1.1513 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0701 2.1633 1.3251 1.1513
2008-09 0.7162 1.3030 1.3331 1.1444 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0669 2.1104 1.3331 1.1444
2009-10 0.7140 1.2703 1.3410 1.1376 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0637 2.0575 1.3410 1.1376
2010-11 0.7119 1.2377 1.3490 1.1307 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0605 2.0046 1.3490 1.1307
2011-12 0.7097 1.2050 1.3569 1.1238 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0573 1.9518 1.3569 1.1238
2012-13 0.7076 1.1724 1.3649 1.1169 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0541 1.8989 1.3649 1.1169
2013-14 0.7055 1.1397 1.3728 1.1100 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0510 1.8460 1.3728 1.1100
2014-15 0.7033 1.1071 1.3808 1.1032 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0478 1.7931 1.3808 1.1032
2015-16 0.7012 1.0744 1.3887 1.0963 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0446 1.7403 1.3887 1.0963
2016-17 0.6991 1.0418 1.3967 1.0894 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0414 1.6874 1.3967 1.0894
2017-18 0.6969 1.0092 1.4046 1.0825 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0382 1.6345 1.4046 1.0825
2018-19 0.6948 0.9765 1.4126 1.0757 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0350 1.5816 1.4126 1.0757
2019-20 0.6926 0.9439 1.4205 1.0688 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0318 1.5288 1.4205 1.0688
2020-21 0.6905 0.9112 1.4285 1.0619 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0287 1.4759 1.4285 1.0619
2021-22 0.6884 0.8786 1.4364 1.0550 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0255 1.4230 1.4364 1.0550
2022-23 0.6862 0.8459 1.4444 1.0481 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0223 1.3701 1.4444 1.0481
2023-24 0.6841 0.8133 1.4523 1.0413 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0191 1.3173 1.4523 1.0413
2024-25 0.6819 0.7806 1.4603 1.0344 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0159 1.2644 1.4603 1.0344
2025-26 0.6798 0.7480 1.4682 1.0275 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0127 1.2115 1.4682 1.0275
2026-27 0.6777 0.7153 1.4762 1.0206 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0096 1.1586 1.4762 1.0206
2027-28 0.6755 0.6827 1.4841 1.0138 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0064 1.1058 1.4841 1.0138
2028-29 0.6734 0.6501 1.4921 1.0069 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0032 1.0529 1.4921 1.0069
2029-30 0.6713 0.6174 1.5000 1.0000 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.5000 1.0000
1. Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are assumed to decrease linearly to unity by the year 2030.
2. Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.5 in the year 2029-30.
Table 3-4
Modified Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class-High
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2005-06 0.7226 1.4009 1.3092 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3092 1.1651
2006-07 0.7226 1.4009 1.3193 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3193 1.1651
2007-08 0.7226 1.4009 1.3293 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3293 1.1651
2008-09 0.7226 1.4009 1.3393 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3393 1.1651
2009-10 0.7226 1.4009 1.3494 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3494 1.1651
2010-11 0.7226 1.4009 1.3594 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3594 1.1651
2011-12 0.7226 1.4009 1.3694 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3694 1.1651
2012-13 0.7226 1.4009 1.3795 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3795 1.1651
2013-14 0.7226 1.4009 1.3895 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3895 1.1651
2014-15 0.7226 1.4009 1.3995 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.3995 1.1651
2015-16 0.7226 1.4009 1.4095 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4095 1.1651
2016-17 0.7226 1.4009 1.4196 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4196 1.1651
2017-18 0.7226 1.4009 1.4296 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4296 1.1651
2018-19 0.7226 1.4009 1.4396 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4396 1.1651
2019-20 0.7226 1.4009 1.4497 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4497 1.1651
2020-21 0.7226 1.4009 1.4597 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4597 1.1651
2021-22 0.7226 1.4009 1.4697 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4697 1.1651
2022-23 0.7226 1.4009 1.4798 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4798 1.1651
2023-24 0.7226 1.4009 1.4898 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4898 1.1651
2024-25 0.7226 1.4009 1.4998 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.4998 1.1651
2025-26 0.7226 1.4009 1.5099 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.5099 1.1651
2026-27 0.7226 1.4009 1.5199 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.5199 1.1651
2027-28 0.7226 1.4009 1.5299 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.5299 1.1651
2028-29 0.7226 1.4009 1.5400 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.5400 1.1651
2029-30 0.7226 1.4009 1.5500 1.1651 0.3287 0.3826 0.0000 0.0000 1.0764 2.2690 1.5500 1.1651
1. Elasticities for Domestic Commercial and Agriculture Sectors are kept constant considering saturation upto 2030.
2. Assuming a great cussion in the industrial sector throughout the forecast period, its long term elasticity is increased to 1.55 in the year 2029-30.
Table 3-5
Projected GDP Growth Rates

Gross Domestic Product (%) GDP Per Capita (%)
Year
Total Commercial Industrial Agriculture Total Industrial
2005-06 6.6 6.7 9.3 3.3
2006-07 7.3 7.4 9.9 3.9 5.4 7.4
2007-08 7.6 7.7 10.0 4.2 5.6 7.9
2008-09 8.0 8.1 10.3 4.6 6.0 8.0
2009-10 8.0 8.1 10.2 4.6 6.0 8.3
2010-11 8.0 8.1 10.1 4.6 6.0 8.2
2011-12 7.5 7.6 9.4 4.1 5.5 8.1
2012-13 7.5 7.6 9.4 4.1 5.5 7.4
2013-14 7.5 7.6 9.3 4.1 5.5 7.4
2014-15 7.5 7.6 9.2 4.1 5.5 7.3
2015-16 7.0 7.1 8.6 3.6 5.0 7.2
2016-17 7.0 7.1 8.5 3.6 5.2 6.8
2017-18 7.0 7.1 8.4 3.6 5.2 6.7
2018-19 7.0 7.1 8.4 3.6 5.2 6.6
2019-20 7.0 7.1 8.3 3.6 5.2 6.6
2020-21 6.8 6.9 8.0 3.4 5.0 6.5
2021-22 6.8 6.9 8.0 3.4 5.0 6.2
2022-23 6.8 6.9 7.9 3.4 5.0 6.2
2023-24 6.5 6.6 7.6 3.2 4.7 6.1
2024-25 6.5 6.6 7.5 3.2 4.7 5.8
2025-26 6.5 6.6 7.5 3.2 4.7 5.7
2026-27 6.0 6.1 6.9 2.7 4.4 5.9
2027-08 6.0 6.1 6.9 2.7 4.4 5.3
2028-29 6.0 6.1 6.9 2.7 4.4 5.3
2029-30 6.0 6.1 6.8 2.7 4.4 5.3
ACGR
7.0 7.1 8.4 3.6 5.2 6.7
(2007-30)
Source:- Planning and Development Division-Energy Wing (Ref: Fax dated 23-9-2007).
Table 3-6 (a)
Actual Population and Customers-Country (1970-2007)

House Hold Electrified
Population Domestic Customers House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted Agricultural Customers
Fiscal Year Size Households
(Millions) GR (%) No. GR(%) No. No Adj. Factor No % No. GR(%)
1970 60.5 1001355 6.80 8894118 1.46 1457973 16.39 46949
1971 62.9 3.9 1079120 7.8 6.80 9242647 1.46 1571199 17.00 50728 8.05
1972 65.3 3.9 1168700 8.3 6.80 9604412 1.46 1701627 17.72 52882 4.25
1973 66.9 2.4 1258735 7.7 6.80 9835294 1.46 1832718 18.63 59007 11.58
1974 68.9 3.1 1358546 7.9 6.80 10135294 1.46 1978043 19.52 64258 8.90
1975 71.0 3.1 1476377 8.7 6.80 10445588 1.46 2149605 20.58 70249 9.32
1976 73.2 3.1 1614251 9.3 6.80 10766176 1.46 2350349 21.83 77117 9.78
1977 75.4 3.0 1792657 11.1 6.80 11094118 1.46 2610109 23.53 82424 6.88
1978 77.8 3.1 1988342 10.9 6.80 11433824 1.46 2895026 25.32 90961 10.36
1979 80.1 3.1 2192409 10.3 6.80 11783824 1.46 3192148 27.09 96294 5.86
1980 82.6 3.1 2446122 11.6 6.80 12144118 1.46 3561554 29.33 102579 6.53
1981 85.1 3.0 2882760 17.9 6.80 12513235 1.46 4197299 33.54 104745 2.11
1982 87.7 3.0 3175192 10.1 6.80 12892647 1.46 4623080 35.86 111904 6.83
1983 90.3 3.0 3462075 9.0 6.80 13279412 1.46 5040781 37.96 115132 2.88
1984 93.0 2.9 3763925 8.7 6.80 13670588 1.46 5480275 40.09 119048 3.40
1985 95.7 2.9 4041867 7.4 6.80 14069118 1.46 5884958 41.83 121697 2.23
1986 98.4 2.9 4367026 8.0 6.80 14472059 1.46 6358390 43.94 125849 3.41
1987 101.2 2.8 4733578 8.4 6.80 14879412 1.46 6892090 46.32 131006 4.10
1988 104.0 2.8 5190717 9.7 6.80 15292647 1.46 7557684 49.42 137861 5.23
1989 106.8 2.7 5777465 11.3 6.80 15711765 1.46 8411989 53.54 144920 5.12
1990 109.7 2.7 6213113 7.5 6.80 16133824 1.46 9046293 56.07 150620 3.93
1991 112.6 2.6 6600380 6.2 6.80 16560294 1.46 9610153 58.03 153231 1.73
1992 115.5 2.6 7053833 6.9 6.80 16991176 1.46 10270381 60.45 156461 2.11
1993 118.5 2.6 7498804 6.3 6.80 17426471 1.46 10918259 62.65 154300 -1.38
1994 121.5 2.5 7943668 5.9 6.80 17864706 1.46 11565981 64.74 158962 3.02
1995 124.5 2.5 8324139 4.8 6.80 18307353 1.46 12119946 66.20 163556 2.89
1996 127.5 2.4 8755937 5.2 6.80 18751471 1.46 12748644 67.99 166365 1.72
1997 130.6 2.4 9165447 4.7 6.80 19200000 1.46 13344891 69.50 168521 1.30
1998 133.5 2.2 9501865 3.7 6.80 19629412 1.46 13834715 70.48 171903 2.01
1999 136.7 2.4 10005352 5.3 6.80 20101471 1.46 14567793 72.47 174476 1.50
2000 137.5 0.6 10783360 7.8 6.80 20220588 1.36 14665370 72.53 176004 0.88
2001 140.4 2.1 11314947 4.9 6.80 20647059 1.36 15388328 74.53 182005 3.41
2002 143.2 2.0 11776806 4.1 6.80 21058824 1.36 16016456 76.06 185683 2.02
2003 146.8 2.5 12350278 4.9 6.80 21588235 1.36 16796378 77.80 193487 4.20
2004 149.7 2.0 13086453 6.0 6.80 22014706 1.36 17797576 80.84 200418 3.58
2005 152.5 1.9 13888765 6.1 6.80 22426471 1.36 18888720 84.23 202531 1.05
2006 155.4 1.9 14837490 6.8 6.80 22852941 1.36 20178986 88.30 222394 9.81
2007 158.2 1.9 15563723 4.9 6.80 23264706 1.36 21166663 90.98 235212 5.76
GR(2005-07) GR(2000-07) 5.4% GR(1997-2007) 3.39
Table 3-6 (b)
Projected Population and Customers-Country (2008-2030)

House Hold Electrified
Population Domestic Customers House Holds Domestic Customer Adjusted Agricultural Customers
Fiscal Year Size Households
(Millions) GR (%) No. GR(%) No. No Adj. Factor No % No. GR(%)

2008 161.2 1.9 16200992 4.1 6.80 23707117 1.36 22033350 92.94 243186 3.39
2009 164.3 1.9 16734747 3.3 6.80 24157941 1.36 22759256 94.21 251430 3.39
2010 167.4 1.9 17152209 2.5 6.80 24617337 1.36 23327004 94.76 259953 3.39
2011 170.6 1.9 17495253 2.0 6.80 25085470 1.36 23793544 94.85 268766 3.39
2012 173.8 1.9 17845158 2.0 6.80 25562506 1.36 24269415 94.94 277877 3.39
2013 177.1 1.9 18202061 2.0 6.80 26048612 1.36 24754804 95.03 287297 3.39
2014 180.5 1.9 18566103 2.0 6.80 26543963 1.36 25249900 95.12 297036 3.39
2015 183.9 1.9 18937425 2.0 6.80 27048733 1.36 25754898 95.22 307106 3.39
2016 187.4 1.9 19316173 2.0 6.80 27563103 1.36 26269996 95.31 317516 3.39
2017 191.0 1.9 19702497 2.0 6.80 28087254 1.36 26795395 95.40 328280 3.39
2018 194.6 1.9 20096547 2.0 6.80 28621372 1.36 27331303 95.49 339409 3.39
2019 198.3 1.9 20498477 2.0 6.80 29165647 1.36 27877929 95.58 350915 3.39
2020 202.1 1.9 20908447 2.0 6.80 29720272 1.36 28435488 95.68 362811 3.39
2021 205.9 1.9 21326616 2.0 6.80 30285445 1.36 29004198 95.77 375110 3.39
2022 209.9 1.9 21753148 2.0 6.80 30861365 1.36 29584282 95.86 387827 3.39
2023 213.8 1.9 22188211 2.0 6.80 31448237 1.36 30175967 95.95 400974 3.39
2024 217.9 1.9 22631976 2.0 6.80 32046269 1.36 30779487 96.05 414567 3.39
2025 222.1 1.9 23084615 2.0 6.80 32655673 1.36 31395076 96.14 428621 3.39
2026 226.3 1.9 23546307 2.0 6.80 33276666 1.36 32022978 96.23 443151 3.39
2027 230.6 1.9 24017233 2.0 6.80 33909468 1.36 32663438 96.33 458174 3.39
2028 235.0 1.9 24497578 2.0 6.80 34554304 1.36 33316706 96.42 473706 3.39
2029 239.4 1.9 24987530 2.0 6.80 35211402 1.36 33983040 96.51 489764 3.39
2030 244.0 1.9 25487280 2.0 6.80 35880996 1.36 34662701 96.60 506367 3.39
Source: Economic Survey of Pakistan 2005-06 and Census reports.
The average growth rate of the last three years (1.9%) is applied to population from 2008-30.
The average growth rate of the last ten years (3.39%) is applied to agricultural customers from 2008-30.
Domestic customers are increased such that 97 % population becomes electrified in the year 2030.
An adjustment factor is used to capture the number of domestic customers present in a single bulk supply connection for a housing scheme.
Table 3-7
Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Low
Domestic Commercial Industrial Agriculture Public Light Traction Bulk Total Self Generation Gross Total
Year PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC Sum
2006-07 30110 4008 4456 1023 18283 3676 8410 82 316 65 12 - 3267 789 64854 9643 6820 2146 71674 11789 83463
2007-08 33314 4541 5016 1386 20218 3992 9042 83 299 103 12 - 3493 1088 71393 11193 7519 2366 78912 13559 92471
2008-09 36319 4951 5788 1600 22293 4401 9756 89 316 113 11 - 3872 1206 78356 12360 8290 2609 86646 14969 101615
2009-10 39873 5435 6782 1875 24641 4865 10528 90 364 127 11 - 4324 1347 86525 13739 9164 2884 95689 16622 112311
G.R. (2007-10) 9.6% 9.0% 15.1% 17.4% 9.4% 10.0% 6.9% 3.8% 6.9% 14.4% -3.8% - 9.3% 8.2% 9.6% 10.4% 9.7% 9.7% 9.6% 10.3% 9.7%
2010-11 43369 5912 7890 2181 27178 5366 11358 92 400 140 11 - 4804 1497 95010 15186 10107 3180 105117 18367 123484
2011-12 47119 6423 9157 2531 29912 5905 12184 92 439 155 11 - 5330 1661 104152 16767 11124 3500 115276 20267 135543
2012-13 51031 6956 10572 2922 32634 6443 13063 95 481 171 10 - 5884 1834 113675 18420 12136 3819 125811 22239 148050
2013-14 55241 7530 12166 3363 35570 7022 14000 99 526 189 10 - 6491 2023 124005 20225 13228 4163 137233 24388 161621
2014-15 59729 8142 13940 3853 38693 7639 14997 106 575 208 4 - 7149 2228 135087 22175 14389 4528 149476 26703 176178
G.R. (2010-15) 8.4% 8.4% 15.5% 15.5% 9.4% 9.4% 7.3% 3.3% 9.6% 10.4% -18.5% - 10.6% 10.6% 9.3% 10.0% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2015-16 64353 8772 15835 4376 42006 8293 15977 113 626 228 4 - 7843 2444 146643 24226 15621 4916 162264 29142 191405
2016-17 69301 9446 17916 4952 45269 8937 17016 120 681 249 4 - 8574 2672 158762 26377 16835 5298 175597 31675 207271
2017-18 74536 10160 20160 5572 48695 9614 18118 128 740 273 4 - 9351 2914 171603 28660 18108 5698 189712 34358 224070
2018-19 80144 10924 22600 6246 52281 10322 19288 136 802 297 4 - 10184 3173 185303 31099 19442 6118 204745 37218 241963
2019-20 86129 11740 25225 6972 56087 11073 20527 145 870 324 4 - 11074 3451 199916 33705 20858 6564 220773 40269 261042
G.R. (2015-20) 7.6% 7.6% 12.6% 12.6% 9.4% 9.4% 6.5% 6.5% 8.6% 9.3% 0.0% - 9.1% 9.1% 8.2% 8.7% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2020-21 92424 12598 28003 7740 60060 11857 21797 154 940 352 4 - 12011 3743 215239 36444 22335 7028 237574 43473 281047
2021-22 99151 13515 30969 8559 64067 12649 23139 164 1016 382 4 - 12995 4049 231342 39319 23825 7497 255167 46816 301983
2022-23 106306 14490 34104 9426 68290 13482 24559 174 1097 414 4 - 14037 4374 248396 42361 25396 7992 273792 50352 324144
2023-24 113736 15503 37334 10319 72664 14346 26007 184 1180 447 4 - 15114 4709 266039 45508 27022 8503 293061 54012 347073
2024-25 121651 16582 40719 11254 77032 15208 27534 195 1268 482 4 - 16233 5058 284441 48780 28646 9015 313088 57794 370882
G.R. (2020-25) 7.2% 7.2% 10.1% 10.1% 9.4% 9.4% 6.0% 6.0% 7.8% 8.3% -0.4% - 7.9% 7.9% 7.3% 7.7% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2025-26 130013 17722 44217 12221 81525 16095 29145 206 1361 519 4 - 17396 5421 303662 52184 30317 9540 333979 61724 395703
2026-27 138482 18876 47688 13180 86220 17022 30691 217 1454 555 4 - 18573 5787 323112 55639 32063 10090 355176 65729 420904
2027-28 147451 20099 51246 14164 90601 17887 32313 229 1552 594 4 - 19763 6158 342930 59130 33692 10603 376622 69732 446354
2028-29 156813 21375 54819 15151 95145 18784 34015 241 1653 633 4 - 20982 6538 363430 62722 35382 11134 398813 73856 472669
2029-30 166737 22728 58447 16154 99855 19714 35800 253 1759 674 4 - 22243 6931 384844 66454 37134 11685 421978 78139 500117
G.R. (2025-30) 6.5% 6.5% 7.5% 7.5% 9.4% 9.4% 5.4% 5.4% 6.8% 6.9% -2.2% - 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 6.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 109.4%
G.R.(2007-30) 7.7% 7.8% 11.8% 12.7% 7.7% 7.6% 6.5% 5.0% 7.8% 10.7% -5.2% - 8.7% 9.9% 8.0% 8.8% 7.6% 7.6% 8.0% 8.6% 8.1%
Note: Energy Shed in the base year has been added in the major customer categories proportionally.
Table 3-8
Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-Normal
Year PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC Total PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC Sum
2006-07 30110 4008 4456 1023 18283 3676 8410 82 316 65 381 12 - 3267 789 64854 9643 6820 2146 71674 11789 83463
2007-08 33314 4541 5016 1386 20282 4004 9042 83 299 103 402 12 - 3497 1090 71462 11207 7542 2373 79004 13580 92585
2008-09 36319 4951 5788 1600 22472 4436 9756 89 316 113 429 11 - 3884 1210 78546 12399 8357 2630 86903 15029 101932
2009-10 39873 5435 6782 1875 25004 4936 10528 90 364 127 491 11 - 4349 1355 86913 13818 9298 2926 96211 16744 112955
G.R. (2007-10) 9.8% 10.7% 15.0% 22.4% 11.0% 10.3% 7.8% 3.3% 4.9% 24.9% 8.9% -2.2% - 10.0% 19.8% 10.3% 12.7% 10.9% 10.9% 10.3% 12.4% 10.6%
2010-11 43369 5912 7890 2181 27805 5489 11358 92 400 140 541 11 - 4846 1510 95680 15324 10340 3254 106020 18577 124597
2011-12 47119 6423 9157 2531 30901 6101 12184 92 439 155 595 11 - 5398 1682 105209 16983 11491 3616 116700 20600 137300
2012-13 51031 6956 10572 2922 34066 6725 13063 95 481 171 652 10 - 5982 1864 115205 18733 12668 3987 127873 22720 150593
2013-14 55241 7530 12166 3363 37576 7418 14000 99 526 189 715 10 - 6628 2065 126147 20664 13974 4397 140121 25061 165182
2014-15 59729 8142 13940 3853 41418 8177 14997 106 575 208 783 4 - 7335 2285 137998 22771 15403 4847 153401 27618 181018
G.R. (2010-15) 8.4% 8.4% 15.5% 15.5% 9.4% 9.4% 7.3% 3.3% 9.6% 10.4% 9.8% -18.5% - 11.0% 11.0% 9.7% 10.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2015-16 64353 8772 15835 4376 45622 9007 15977 113 626 228 854 4 - 8089 2520 150505 25017 16966 5339 167471 30355 197826
2016-17 69301 9446 17916 4952 49894 9850 17016 120 681 249 931 4 - 8889 2770 163701 27388 18554 5839 182256 33227 215483
2017-18 74536 10160 20160 5572 54523 10764 18118 128 740 273 1012 4 - 9748 3038 177829 29934 20276 6381 198105 36315 234420
2018-19 80144 10924 22600 6246 59535 11754 19288 136 802 297 1100 4 - 10678 3327 193050 32685 22140 6967 215190 39652 254842
2019-20 86129 11740 25225 6972 65039 12840 20527 145 870 324 1194 4 - 11684 3641 209477 35662 24186 7611 233663 43273 276937
G.R. (2015-20) 7.6% 7.6% 12.6% 12.6% 9.4% 9.4% 6.5% 6.5% 8.6% 9.3% 8.8% 0.0% - 9.8% 9.8% 8.7% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2020-21 92424 12598 28003 7740 70993 14016 21797 154 940 352 1293 4 - 12756 3975 226917 38835 26401 8308 253318 47143 300461
2021-22 99151 13515 30969 8559 77222 15246 23139 164 1016 382 1399 4 - 13891 4329 245394 42195 28717 9037 274111 51232 325343
2022-23 106306 14490 34104 9426 84037 16591 24559 174 1097 414 1511 4 - 15109 4708 265216 45804 31252 9834 296468 55638 352106
2023-24 113736 15503 37334 10319 91373 18039 26007 184 1180 447 1627 4 - 16388 5107 286022 49599 33980 10693 320002 60292 380294
2024-25 121651 16582 40719 11254 98991 19543 27534 195 1268 482 1750 4 - 17729 5524 307896 53581 36813 11584 344709 65165 409874
G.R. (2020-25) 7.2% 7.2% 10.1% 10.1% 9.4% 9.4% 6.0% 6.0% 7.8% 8.3% 8.0% -0.4% - 8.7% 8.7% 8.0% 8.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2025-26 130013 17722 44217 12221 107145 21153 29145 206 1361 519 1879 4 - 19141 5964 331027 57786 39845 12539 370872 70324 441196
2026-27 138482 18876 47688 13180 116021 22905 30691 217 1454 555 2009 4 - 20603 6420 354942 62154 43145 13577 398088 75732 473820
2027-28 147451 20099 51246 14164 124645 24608 32313 229 1552 594 2145 4 - 22082 6881 379293 66574 46353 14587 425645 81160 506805
2028-29 156813 21375 54819 15151 133963 26448 34015 241 1653 633 2286 4 - 23626 7362 404892 71209 49818 15677 454709 86886 541595
2029-30 166737 22728 58447 16154 144032 28436 35800 253 1759 674 2432 4 - 25252 7869 432030 76113 53562 16855 485592 92968 578560
G.R. (2025-30) 6.5% 6.5% 7.5% 7.5% 9.4% 9.4% 5.4% 5.4% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% -2.2% - 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% 7.3% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 109.4%
G.R.(2007-30) 7.7% 7.8% 11.8% 12.7% 9.4% 9.3% 6.5% 5.0% 7.8% 10.7% 8.4% -5.2% - 9.3% 10.5% 8.6% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.7% 9.4% 8.8%
Table 3-9
Category-wise Sales (GWh) Forecast (PEPCO AND KESC)-High
Year PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC PEPCO KESC Sum
2005-06 27671 3852 3860 986 17002 3285 8066 78 279 74 13 0 3032 983 59923 9258 6317 1988 66240 11246 77486
2006-07 30110 4008 4456 1023 18283 3676 8410 82 316 65 12 - 3267 789 64854 9643 6820 2146 71674 11789 83463
2007-08 33322 4542 5040 1393 20288 4005 9047 83 300 103 12 - 3502 1091 71510 11218 7545 2374 79055 13592 92647
2008-09 36341 4954 5861 1620 22490 4440 9771 89 316 114 11 - 3897 1214 78686 12430 8363 2632 87050 15062 102112
2009-10 39921 5442 6951 1921 25040 4944 10557 91 366 128 11 - 4378 1364 87224 13888 9312 2930 96536 16819 113355
G.R. (2007-10) 9.6% 9.0% 15.8% 18.2% 9.4% 10.0% 7.0% 3.9% 7.0% 14.6% -3.8% - 9.6% 8.5% 9.8% 10.7% 10.2% 10.2% 9.9% 10.6% 10.0%
2010-11 43454 5923 8213 2270 27869 5502 11407 92 403 142 11 - 4901 1527 96257 15456 10364 3261 106621 18717 125338
2011-12 47252 6441 9714 2685 31002 6121 12256 93 445 158 11 - 5491 1711 106171 17208 11529 3628 117700 20836 138536
2012-13 51229 6983 11473 3171 34212 6754 13166 95 490 176 10 - 6131 1910 116712 19090 12723 4004 129435 23094 152529
2013-14 55523 7568 13556 3747 37782 7459 14142 100 539 196 10 - 6856 2136 128408 21207 14050 4421 142459 25628 168087
2014-15 60117 8194 16009 4425 41701 8233 15187 107 595 219 4 - 7671 2390 141283 23568 15508 4880 156791 28448 185239
G.R. (2010-15) 8.5% 8.5% 18.2% 18.2% 9.4% 9.4% 7.5% 3.5% 10.2% 11.4% -18.5% - 11.9% 11.9% 10.1% 11.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2015-16 64865 8842 18785 5192 46000 9082 16218 115 653 243 4 - 8565 2669 155090 26142 17106 5383 172197 31525 203722
2016-17 69965 9537 22038 6091 50381 9947 17319 123 719 271 4 - 9549 2976 169976 28943 18736 5896 188712 34839 223551
2017-18 75380 10275 25792 7128 55143 10887 18495 131 790 302 4 - 10645 3317 186250 32040 20506 6453 206757 38493 245250
2018-19 81206 11069 30182 8342 60313 11907 19751 140 870 336 4 - 11879 3701 204206 35496 22429 7058 226635 42554 269189
2019-20 87450 11920 35287 9753 66009 13032 21093 149 959 375 4 - 13269 4135 224070 39364 24547 7725 248617 47089 295706
G.R. (2015-20) 7.8% 7.8% 17.1% 17.1% 9.4% 9.4% 6.8% 6.8% 10.0% 11.4% 0.0% - 11.6% 11.6% 9.7% 10.8% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2020-21 94042 12819 41147 11372 72191 14252 22474 159 1056 419 4 - 14817 4617 245730 43638 26846 8448 272576 52087 324663
2021-22 101119 13783 47962 13256 78678 15533 23946 169 1164 468 4 - 16545 5155 269419 48366 29259 9207 298678 57573 356251
2022-23 108680 14814 55849 15436 85799 16939 25515 181 1285 524 4 - 18492 5762 295624 53656 31907 10041 327531 63696 391227
2023-24 116563 15889 64768 17901 93491 18457 27125 192 1416 585 4 - 20642 6432 324010 59457 34767 10941 358777 70397 429174
2024-25 125000 17039 75084 20752 101506 20040 28837 204 1563 655 4 - 23040 7179 355033 65868 37748 11879 392780 77747 470527
G.R. (2020-25) 7.4% 7.4% 16.3% 16.3% 9.4% 9.4% 6.5% 6.5% 10.3% 11.8% -0.4% - 11.7% 11.7% 9.6% 10.8% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4%
2025-26 133956 18259 86906 24020 110114 21739 30656 217 1725 733 4 - 25719 8014 389081 72982 40949 12886 430029 85868 515897
2026-27 143060 19500 99915 27615 119517 23596 32407 229 1898 816 4 - 28632 8922 425431 80678 44445 13986 469876 94664 564541
2027-28 152747 20821 114803 31730 128686 25406 34258 242 2089 910 4 - 31825 9917 464412 89026 47855 15059 512267 104085 616353
2028-29 162906 22206 131569 36364 138626 27368 36214 256 2300 1015 4 - 35365 11020 506983 98228 51552 16223 558535 114451 672986
2029-30 173728 23681 150750 41665 149406 29496 38282 271 2534 1132 4 - 39340 12258 554044 108504 55560 17484 609604 125988 735592
G.R. (2025-30) 6.8% 6.8% 15.0% 15.0% 9.4% 9.4% 5.8% 5.8% 10.2% 11.6% -2.2% - 11.3% 11.3% 9.3% 10.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 109.4%
G.R.(2007-30) 7.9% 8.0% 16.5% 17.5% 9.6% 9.5% 6.8% 5.3% 9.5% 13.2% -5.2% - 11.4% 12.7% 9.8% 11.1% 9.5% 9.5% 9.8% 10.8% 9.9%
Table 3-10
Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Low
Computed Losses Energy Losses Energy Load Computed Peak
Sale Transmission Distribution T & D Losses Sent Out Auxillaries Total Generated Factor Demand
Year
(GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (%) (GWh) (GWh) (%) (MW)
2006-07 64854 6.61 5709 14.81 12797 21.4 18506 83360 3.5 3028 24.9 21534 86388 65.1 15138
2007-08 71393 6.28 5898 14.19 13330 20.5 19228 90622 3.5 3292 24.0 22520 93914 65.1 16468
2008-09 78356 5.95 6060 13.57 13819 19.5 19879 98235 3.5 3568 23.0 23447 101803 65.2 17824
2009-10 86525 5.62 6246 12.96 14387 18.6 20633 107158 3.5 3892 22.1 24525 111050 65.8 19266
G.R. (2007-10) 10.09% 8.73% 8.73% 8.37%
2010-11 95010 5.30 6381 12.34 14862 17.6 21242 116252 3.5 4223 21.1 25465 120475 66.4 20728
2011-12 104152 4.97 6484 11.72 15290 16.7 21773 125926 3.5 4574 20.2 26348 130500 67.0 22235
2012-13 113675 4.64 6532 11.10 15620 15.7 22152 135827 3.5 4934 19.2 27086 140761 67.5 23805
2013-14 124005 4.31 6545 10.48 15902 14.8 22447 146452 3.5 5320 18.3 27766 151771 68.0 25479
2014-15 135087 3.98 6512 9.86 16112 13.8 22624 157711 3.5 5729 17.3 28353 163439 68.0 27437
G.R. (2010-15) 9.3% 8.0% 8.0% 7.3%
2015-16 146643 3.66 6413 9.24 16206 12.9 22619 169262 3.5 6148 16.4 28767 175410 68.0 29447
2016-17 158762 3.33 6249 8.62 16185 11.9 22435 181197 3.5 6582 15.5 29017 187779 68.0 31523
2017-18 171603 3.00 6022 8.00 16057 11.0 22079 193682 3.5 7035 14.5 29114 200718 68.0 33696
2018-19 185303 3.00 6502 8.00 17339 11.0 23842 209144 3.5 7597 14.5 31439 216741 68.0 36386
2019-20 199916 3.00 7015 8.00 18707 11.0 25722 225637 3.5 8196 14.5 33918 233834 68.0 39255
G.R. (2015-20) 8.2% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
2020-21 215239 3.00 7553 8.00 20141 11.0 27693 242933 3.5 8824 14.5 36518 251757 68.0 42264
2021-22 231342 3.00 8118 8.00 21647 11.0 29765 261107 3.5 9485 14.5 39250 270592 68.0 45426
2022-23 248396 3.00 8716 8.00 23243 11.0 31959 280356 3.5 10184 14.5 42143 290540 68.0 48774
2023-24 266039 3.00 9335 8.00 24894 11.0 34229 300268 3.5 10907 14.5 45136 311175 68.0 52239
2024-25 284441 3.00 9981 8.00 26616 11.0 36597 321038 3.5 11662 14.5 48258 332700 68.0 55852
G.R. (2020-25) 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
2025-26 303662 3.00 10655 8.00 28415 11.0 39070 342732 3.5 12450 14.5 51519 355181 68.0 59626
2026-27 323112 3.00 11338 8.00 30235 11.0 41573 364685 3.5 13247 14.5 54819 377932 68.0 63445
2027-28 342930 3.00 12033 8.00 32089 11.0 44122 387052 3.5 14059 14.5 58182 401111 68.0 67337
2028-29 363430 3.00 12753 8.00 34007 11.0 46760 410190 3.5 14900 14.5 61660 425090 68.0 71362
2029-30 384844 3.00 13504 8.00 36011 11.0 49515 434359 3.5 15778 14.5 65293 450137 68.0 75567
G.R. (2025-30) 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2%
Note: The base year sale, generation and demand are computed figures excluding export to KESC and including load shedding.
Auxiliary consumption of IPPs are added proportionally.
*Excluding KESC export.
Table 3-11
Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-Normal
Year Sale Transmission Distribution T & D Losses Sent Out Auxillaries Total Generated Factor Demand
2006-07 64854 6.61 5709 14.81 12797 21.4 18506 83360 3.5 3028 24.9 21534 86388 65.1 15138
2007-08 71462 6.28 5904 14.19 13343 20.5 19247 90709 3.5 3295 24.0 22542 94004 65.1 16484
2008-09 78546 5.95 6075 13.57 13853 19.5 19927 98474 3.5 3577 23.0 23504 102051 65.2 17868
2009-10 86913 5.62 6274 12.96 14451 18.6 20725 107638 3.5 3910 22.1 24635 111548 65.8 19352
G.R. (2007-10) 10.25% 8.89% 8.89% 8.53%
2010-11 95680 5.30 6426 12.34 14966 17.6 21392 117072 3.5 4253 21.1 25645 121324 66.4 20874
2011-12 105209 4.97 6549 11.72 15445 16.7 21994 127203 3.5 4621 20.2 26615 131824 67.0 22460
2012-13 115205 4.64 6620 11.10 15830 15.7 22450 137655 3.5 5000 19.2 27450 142655 67.5 24126
2013-14 126147 4.31 6658 10.48 16177 14.8 22834 148982 3.5 5412 18.3 28246 154394 68.0 25919
2014-15 137998 3.98 6652 9.86 16459 13.8 23111 161110 3.5 5852 17.3 28964 166962 68.0 28029
G.R. (2010-15) 9.7% 8.4% 8.4% 7.7%
2015-16 150505 3.66 6582 9.24 16633 12.9 23215 173720 3.5 6310 16.4 29525 180030 68.0 30223
2016-17 163701 3.33 6444 8.62 16689 11.9 23133 186834 3.5 6787 15.5 29919 193621 68.0 32504
2017-18 177829 3.00 6240 8.00 16640 11.0 22880 200709 3.5 7291 14.5 30171 208000 68.0 34918
2018-19 193050 3.00 6774 8.00 18064 11.0 24838 217888 3.5 7915 14.5 32753 225803 68.0 37907
2019-20 209477 3.00 7351 8.00 19601 11.0 26952 236429 3.5 8588 14.5 35540 245017 68.0 41132
G.R. (2015-20) 8.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
2020-21 226917 3.00 7962 8.00 21233 11.0 29196 256113 3.5 9303 14.5 38499 265416 68.0 44557
2021-22 245394 3.00 8611 8.00 22962 11.0 31573 276967 3.5 10061 14.5 41634 287027 68.0 48185
2022-23 265216 3.00 9306 8.00 24817 11.0 34123 299339 3.5 10873 14.5 44997 310213 68.0 52077
2023-24 286022 3.00 10036 8.00 26764 11.0 36800 322823 3.5 11726 14.5 48527 334549 68.0 56163
2024-25 307896 3.00 10804 8.00 28811 11.0 39615 347511 3.5 12623 14.5 52238 360134 68.0 60458
G.R. (2020-25) 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
2025-26 331027 3.00 11616 8.00 30975 11.0 42591 373618 3.5 13571 14.5 56162 387189 68.0 65000
2026-27 354942 3.00 12455 8.00 33213 11.0 45668 400610 3.5 14552 14.5 60220 415162 68.0 69696
2027-28 379293 3.00 13309 8.00 35491 11.0 48801 428093 3.5 15550 14.5 64351 443644 68.0 74477
2028-29 404892 3.00 14208 8.00 37887 11.0 52094 456986 3.5 16600 14.5 68694 473586 68.0 79503
2029-30 432030 3.00 15160 8.00 40426 11.0 55586 487616 3.5 17712 14.5 73298 505328 68.0 84832
G.R. (2025-30) 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 8.0% 7.8%
Table 3-12
Load Forecast (PEPCO)*-High
Year Sale Transmission Distribution T & D Losses Sent Out Auxillaries Total Generated Factor Demand
2006-07 64854 6.61 5709 14.81 12797 21.4 18506 83360 3.5 3028 24.9 21534 86388 65.1 15138
2007-08 71510 6.28 5908 14.19 13352 20.5 19260 90770 3.5 3297 24.0 22557 94067 65.1 16495
2008-09 78686 5.95 6085 13.57 13878 19.5 19963 98649 3.5 3583 23.0 23546 102233 65.2 17899
2009-10 87224 5.62 6296 12.96 14503 18.6 20799 108023 3.5 3924 22.1 24723 111947 65.8 19422
G.R. (2006-10) 10.38% 9.02% 9.02% 8.66%
2010-11 96257 5.30 6465 12.34 15057 17.6 21521 117778 3.5 4278 21.1 25799 122057 66.4 21000
2011-12 106171 4.97 6609 11.72 15586 16.7 22196 128366 3.5 4663 20.2 26858 133029 67.0 22666
2012-13 116712 4.64 6706 11.10 16038 15.7 22744 139456 3.5 5066 19.2 27809 144521 67.5 24441
2013-14 128408 4.31 6777 10.48 16467 14.8 23244 151652 3.5 5509 18.3 28752 157161 68.0 26383
2014-15 141283 3.98 6810 9.86 16851 13.8 23662 164945 3.5 5992 17.3 29653 170936 68.0 28696
G.R. (2010-15) 10.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.1%
2015-16 155090 3.66 6783 9.24 17139 12.9 23922 179012 3.5 6503 16.4 30424 185515 68.0 31143
2016-17 169976 3.33 6691 8.62 17329 11.9 24019 193996 3.5 7047 15.5 31066 201042 68.0 33750
2017-18 186250 3.00 6535 8.00 17428 11.0 23963 210214 3.5 7636 14.5 31599 217850 68.0 36572
2018-19 204206 3.00 7166 8.00 19108 11.0 26274 230479 3.5 8372 14.5 34646 238851 68.0 40097
2019-20 224070 3.00 7863 8.00 20967 11.0 28829 252900 3.5 9186 14.5 38016 262086 68.0 43998
G.R. (2015-20) 9.7% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9%
2020-21 245730 3.00 8623 8.00 22994 11.0 31616 277347 3.5 10074 14.5 41691 287421 68.0 48251
2021-22 269419 3.00 9454 8.00 25210 11.0 34664 304083 3.5 11046 14.5 45710 315129 68.0 52902
2022-23 295624 3.00 10373 8.00 27662 11.0 38036 333660 3.5 12120 14.5 50156 345780 68.0 58048
2023-24 324010 3.00 11369 8.00 30319 11.0 41688 365698 3.5 13284 14.5 54972 378981 68.0 63622
2024-25 355033 3.00 12458 8.00 33221 11.0 45679 400712 3.5 14556 14.5 60235 415268 68.0 69713
G.R. (2020-25) 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6%
2025-26 389081 3.00 13653 8.00 36407 11.0 50060 439141 3.5 15951 14.5 66012 455092 68.0 76399
2026-27 425431 3.00 14928 8.00 39809 11.0 54737 480168 3.5 17442 14.5 72179 497610 68.0 83536
2027-28 464412 3.00 16296 8.00 43456 11.0 59752 524165 3.5 19040 14.5 78792 543205 68.0 91191
2028-29 506983 3.00 17790 8.00 47440 11.0 65230 572213 3.5 20785 14.5 86015 592999 68.0 99550
2029-30 554044 3.00 19441 8.00 51843 11.0 71285 625329 3.5 22715 14.5 93999 648043 68.0 108791
G.R. (2025-30) 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 9.8% 9.2% 9.2% 9.0%
Table 3-13
Load Forecast (KESC)-Low
Computed Losses Energy Losses Energy Load Computed
Year Sale Distribution Transmission T & D Losses Sent Out Auxiliary Total Generated Factor Peak Demand
2006-07 9643 29.7 4498 2.5 372 32.1 4870 14513 4.2 638 36.3 5508 15151 73.6 2349
2007-08 11193 28.0 4781 2.5 419 30.5 5201 16394 4.0 683 34.5 5884 17077 73.0 2670
2008-09 12360 26.5 4885 2.5 453 29.0 5338 17698 4.0 737 33.0 6076 18436 72.4 2907
2009-10 13739 25.0 5011 2.5 492 27.5 5503 19242 4.0 802 31.5 6305 20044 71.8 3188
G.R. (2007-10) 12.5% 9.9% 9.8% 10.7%
2010-11 15186 23.5 5095 2.5 532 26.0 5627 20814 4.0 867 30.0 6495 21681 71.2 3478
2011-12 16767 22.0 5156 2.5 575 24.5 5731 22498 4.0 937 28.5 6669 23436 70.5 3792
2012-13 18420 20.5 5170 2.5 619 23.0 5789 24209 4.0 1009 27.0 6797 25217 69.9 4116
2013-14 20225 19.0 5155 2.5 666 21.5 5821 26047 4.0 1085 25.5 6906 27132 69.3 4468
2014-15 22175 17.5 5103 2.5 716 20.0 5819 27994 4.0 1166 24.0 6985 29160 68.7 4845
G.R. (2010-15) 10.0% 7.8% 7.8% 8.7%
2015-16 24226 17.5 5575 2.5 782 20.0 6357 30583 4.0 1274 24.0 7632 31857 68.1 5342
2016-17 26377 17.5 6070 2.5 852 20.0 6922 33299 4.0 1387 24.0 8309 34686 67.5 5869
2017-18 28660 17.5 6595 2.5 925 20.0 7521 36181 4.0 1508 24.0 9028 37688 66.8 6436
2018-19 31099 17.5 7157 2.5 1004 20.0 8161 39260 4.0 1636 24.0 9797 40896 66.2 7049
2019-20 33705 17.5 7756 2.5 1088 20.0 8845 42550 4.0 1773 24.0 10618 44323 65.6 7711
G.R. (2015-20) 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 9.7%
2020-21 36444 17.5 8387 2.5 1177 20.0 9564 46008 4.0 1917 24.0 11481 47925 65.0 8417
2021-22 39319 17.5 9048 2.5 1269 20.0 10318 49636 4.0 2068 24.0 12386 51705 65.0 9081
2022-23 42361 17.5 9748 2.5 1368 20.0 11116 53477 4.0 2228 24.0 13344 55705 65.0 9783
2023-24 45508 17.5 10473 2.5 1469 20.0 11942 57451 4.0 2394 24.0 14336 59844 65.0 10510
2024-25 48780 17.5 11226 2.5 1575 20.0 12800 61580 4.0 2566 24.0 15366 64146 65.0 11266
G.R. (2020-25) 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9%
2025-26 52184 17.5 12009 2.5 1685 20.0 13694 65878 4.0 2745 24.0 16439 68622 65.0 12052
2026-27 55639 17.5 12804 2.5 1796 20.0 14600 70239 4.0 2927 24.0 17527 73166 65.0 12850
2027-28 59130 17.5 13607 2.5 1909 20.0 15516 74646 4.0 3110 24.0 18627 77757 65.0 13656
2028-29 62722 17.5 14434 2.5 2025 20.0 16459 79181 4.0 3299 24.0 19758 82480 65.0 14485
2029-30 66454 17.5 15293 2.5 2146 20.0 17438 83892 4.0 3495 24.0 20934 87387 65.0 15347
G.R. (2025-30) 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.8% 7.9% 7.9% 8.5%
Note: Base year Energy Sale is computed sale including energy shed & excluding export to PEPCO .
Base year Energy Generated is computed energy generated by KESC.
Base year Peak Demand is computed peak including import from PEPCO.
Table 3-14
Load Forecast (KESC)-Normal
Year Sale Distribution Transmission T & D Losses Sent Out Auxiliary Total Generated Factor Peak Demand
2006-07 9643 29.7 4498 2.5 372 32.1 4870 14513 4.2 638 36.4 5508 15151 73.6 2349
2007-08 11207 28.0 4787 2.5 420 30.5 5207 16414 4.0 684 34.5 5891 17098 73.0 2673
2008-09 12399 26.5 4901 2.5 454 29.0 5355 17754 4.0 740 33.0 6095 18494 72.4 2916
2009-10 13818 25.0 5040 2.5 495 27.5 5535 19353 4.0 806 31.5 6341 20159 71.8 3206
G.R. (2007-10) 12.7% 10.1% 10.0% 10.9%
2010-11 15324 23.5 5141 2.5 537 26.0 5678 21002 4.0 875 30.0 6553 21877 71.2 3509
2011-12 16983 22.0 5222 2.5 583 24.5 5805 22789 4.0 950 28.5 6755 23738 70.5 3841
2012-13 18733 20.5 5257 2.5 630 23.0 5887 24620 4.0 1026 27.0 6913 25646 69.9 4186
2013-14 20664 19.0 5267 2.5 681 21.5 5947 26611 4.0 1109 25.5 7056 27720 69.3 4565
2014-15 22771 17.5 5240 2.5 735 20.0 5975 28746 4.0 1198 24.0 7173 29944 68.7 4976
G.R. (2010-15) 10.5% 8.2% 8.2% 9.2%
2015-16 25017 17.5 5757 2.5 808 20.0 6565 31581 4.0 1316 24.0 7881 32897 68.1 5516
2016-17 27388 17.5 6303 2.5 884 20.0 7187 34575 4.0 1441 24.0 8628 36016 67.5 6094
2017-18 29934 17.5 6889 2.5 966 20.0 7855 37790 4.0 1575 24.0 9430 39364 66.8 6722
2018-19 32685 17.5 7522 2.5 1055 20.0 8577 41263 4.0 1719 24.0 10296 42982 66.2 7408
2019-20 35662 17.5 8207 2.5 1151 20.0 9358 45021 4.0 1876 24.0 11234 46896 65.6 8159
G.R. (2015-20) 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 10.4%
2020-21 38835 17.5 8937 2.5 1254 20.0 10191 49026 4.0 2043 24.0 12234 51069 65.0 8969
2021-22 42195 17.5 9710 2.5 1362 20.0 11073 53268 4.0 2219 24.0 13292 55487 65.0 9745
2022-23 45804 17.5 10541 2.5 1479 20.0 12020 57823 4.0 2409 24.0 14429 60232 65.0 10578
2023-24 49599 17.5 11414 2.5 1601 20.0 13016 62615 4.0 2609 24.0 15624 65224 65.0 11455
2024-25 53581 17.5 12330 2.5 1730 20.0 14060 67641 4.0 2818 24.0 16879 70460 65.0 12374
G.R. (2020-25) 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.7%
2025-26 57786 17.5 13298 2.5 1866 20.0 15164 72949 4.0 3040 24.0 18203 75989 65.0 13345
2026-27 62154 17.5 14303 2.5 2007 20.0 16310 78465 4.0 3269 24.0 19580 81734 65.0 14354
2027-28 66574 17.5 15320 2.5 2149 20.0 17470 84043 4.0 3502 24.0 20972 87545 65.0 15375
2028-29 71209 17.5 16387 2.5 2299 20.0 18686 89895 4.0 3746 24.0 22432 93641 65.0 16446
2029-30 76113 17.5 17516 2.5 2457 20.0 19973 96086 4.0 4004 24.0 23977 100089 65.0 17578
G.R. (2025-30) 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 9.4% 8.6% 8.6% 9.1%
Table 3-15
Load Forecast (KESC)-High
Year Sale Distribution Transmission T & D Losses Sent Out Auxiliary Total Generated Factor Peak
2006-07 9643 29.7 4498 2.5 372 32.1 4870 14513 4.2 638 36.4 5508 15151 73.6 2349
2007-08 11218 28.0 4792 2.5 420 30.5 5212 16430 4.0 685 34.5 5897 17114 73.0 2676
2008-09 12430 26.5 4913 2.5 455 29.0 5368 17799 4.0 742 33.0 6110 18540 72.4 2923
2009-10 13888 25.0 5065 2.5 497 27.5 5563 19451 4.0 810 31.5 6373 20262 71.8 3222
G.R. (2007-10) 12.9% 10.3% 10.2% 11.1%
2010-11 15456 23.5 5186 2.5 542 26.0 5727 21183 4.0 883 30.0 6610 22066 71.2 3540
2011-12 17208 22.0 5291 2.5 591 24.5 5882 23090 4.0 962 28.5 6844 24052 70.5 3892
2012-13 19090 20.5 5358 2.5 642 23.0 5999 25090 4.0 1045 27.0 7045 26135 69.9 4266
2013-14 21207 19.0 5405 2.5 698 21.5 6104 27310 4.0 1138 25.5 7242 28448 69.3 4685
2014-15 23568 17.5 5424 2.5 761 20.0 6185 29753 4.0 1240 24.0 7424 30993 68.7 5150
G.R. (2010-15) 11.2% 8.9% 8.9% 9.8%
2015-16 26142 17.5 6016 2.5 844 20.0 6860 33002 4.0 1375 24.0 8235 34377 68.1 5764
2016-17 28943 17.5 6661 2.5 934 20.0 7595 36539 4.0 1522 24.0 9118 38061 67.5 6440
2017-18 32040 17.5 7373 2.5 1034 20.0 8408 40447 4.0 1685 24.0 10093 42133 66.8 7195
2018-19 35496 17.5 8169 2.5 1146 20.0 9315 44811 4.0 1867 24.0 11182 46678 66.2 8045
2019-20 39364 17.5 9059 2.5 1271 20.0 10330 49694 4.0 2071 24.0 12400 51765 65.6 9006
G.R. (2015-20) 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 11.8%
2020-21 43638 17.5 10042 2.5 1409 20.0 11451 55090 4.0 2295 24.0 13747 57385 65.0 10078
2021-22 48366 17.5 11130 2.5 1562 20.0 12692 61058 4.0 2544 24.0 15236 63602 65.0 11170
2022-23 53656 17.5 12348 2.5 1732 20.0 14080 67736 4.0 2822 24.0 16902 70558 65.0 12392
2023-24 59457 17.5 13683 2.5 1920 20.0 15602 75059 4.0 3127 24.0 18730 78186 65.0 13731
2024-25 65868 17.5 15158 2.5 2127 20.0 17285 83153 4.0 3465 24.0 20750 86618 65.0 15212
G.R. (2020-25) 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 11.1%
2025-26 72982 17.5 16795 2.5 2356 20.0 19151 92133 4.0 3839 24.0 22990 95972 65.0 16855
2026-27 80678 17.5 18566 2.5 2605 20.0 21171 101849 4.0 4244 24.0 25415 106093 65.0 18632
2027-28 89026 17.5 20487 2.5 2874 20.0 23362 112388 4.0 4683 24.0 28045 117071 65.0 20560
2028-29 98228 17.5 22605 2.5 3171 20.0 25776 124005 4.0 5167 24.0 30943 129172 65.0 22686
2029-30 108504 17.5 24970 2.5 3503 20.0 28473 136977 4.0 5707 24.0 34180 142684 65.0 25059
G.R. (2025-30) 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 11.1% 10.3% 10.2% 10.8%
Table 3-16
Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Low
PEPCO KESC PEPCO + KESC Self Generation Country
Year Sale Generation Peak Sale Generation Peak Sale Generation Peak Sale Generation Peak Sale Generation Peak
(GWh) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) MW (GWh) (GWh) MW
2006-07 64854 86388 15138 9643 15151 2349 74497 101539 17328 8966 9538 1556 83463 111078 18883
2007-08 71393 93914 16468 11193 17077 2670 82586 110990 18964 9885 10515 1715 92471 121506 20679
2008-09 78356 101803 17824 12360 18436 2907 90716 120239 20542 10899 11595 1891 101615 131834 22433
2009-10 86525 111050 19266 13739 20044 3188 100264 131094 22249 12047 12816 2090 112311 143910 24339
G.R. (2007-10) 10.1% 8.7% 8.4% 12.5% 9.8% 10.7% 10.4% 8.9% 8.7% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.4% 9.0% 8.8%
2010-11 95010 120475 20728 15186 21681 3478 110197 142156 23985 13287 14136 2305 123484 156292 26291
2011-12 104152 130500 22235 16767 23436 3792 120919 153935 25790 14624 15558 2537 135543 169493 28327
2012-13 113675 140761 23805 18420 25217 4116 132095 165979 27668 15955 16973 2768 148050 182952 30436
2013-14 124005 151771 25479 20225 27132 4468 144230 178903 29675 17390 18500 3017 161621 197403 32691
2014-15 135087 163439 27437 22175 29160 4845 157261 192599 31989 18917 20124 3282 176178 212724 35271
G.R. (2010-15) 9.3% 8.0% 7.3% 10.0% 7.8% 8.7% 9.4% 8.0% 7.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.1% 7.7%
2015-16 146643 175410 29447 24226 31857 5342 170869 207267 34472 20537 21847 3563 191405 229115 38035
2016-17 158762 187779 31523 26377 34686 5869 185139 222465 37052 22132 23545 3840 207271 246010 40892
2017-18 171603 200718 33696 28660 37688 6436 200263 238406 39766 23807 25326 4130 224070 263732 43896
2018-19 185303 216741 36386 31099 40896 7049 216402 257638 43039 25560 27192 4434 241963 284830 47473
2019-20 199916 233834 39255 33705 44323 7711 233621 278156 46539 27421 29171 4757 261042 307328 51296
G.R. (2015-20) 8.2% 7.4% 7.4% 8.7% 8.7% 9.7% 8.2% 7.6% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 8.2% 7.6% 7.8%
2020-21 215239 251757 42264 36444 47925 8417 251684 299682 50219 29363 31238 5094 281047 330920 55314
2021-22 231342 270592 45426 39319 51705 9081 270661 322297 54010 31323 33322 5434 301983 355618 59444
2022-23 248396 290540 48774 42361 55705 9783 290757 346244 58025 33387 35518 5792 324144 381763 63817
2023-24 266039 311175 52239 45508 59844 10510 311548 371020 62178 35526 37793 6163 347073 408813 68341
2024-25 284441 332700 55852 48780 64146 11266 333221 396846 66507 37661 40065 6534 370882 436911 73041
G.R. (2020-25) 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
2025-26 303662 355181 59626 52184 68622 12052 355846 423804 71026 39858 42402 6915 395703 466206 77941
2026-27 323112 377932 63445 55639 73166 12850 378751 451098 75601 42153 44844 7313 420904 495941 82914
2027-28 342930 401111 67337 59130 77757 13656 402059 478868 80256 44295 47122 7685 446354 525990 87940
2028-29 363430 425090 71362 62722 82480 14485 426152 507570 85066 46517 49486 8070 472669 557056 93137
2029-30 384844 450137 75567 66454 87387 15347 451298 537524 90087 48819 51935 8470 500117 589460 98557
G.R. (2025-30) 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.0% 7.4% 7.2% 8.8% 7.9% 8.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.1% 7.5% 7.4%
Note The sum of PEPCO and KESC Demand (MW) is divided by a diversity factor of 1.009.
Self Generation demand (MW) is calculated by assuming auxiliary losses of 6% and a load factor of 70%.
Table 3-17
Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-Normal
2006-07 64854 86388 15138 9643 15151 2349 74497 101539 17328 8966 9538 1556 83463 111078 18883
2007-08 71462 94004 16484 11207 17098 2673 82669 111102 18983 9916 10549 1720 92585 121651 20703
2008-09 78546 102051 17868 12399 18494 2916 90945 120545 20594 10986 11688 1906 101932 132232 22500
2009-10 86913 111548 19352 13818 20159 3206 100731 131707 22353 12224 13005 2121 112955 144711 24474
G.R. (2007-10) 10.3% 8.9% 8.5% 12.7% 10.0% 10.9% 10.6% 9.1% 8.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.6% 9.2% 9.0%
2010-11 95680 121324 20874 15324 21877 3509 111003 143201 24161 13594 14462 2358 124597 157663 26520
2011-12 105209 131824 22460 16983 23738 3841 122192 155562 26062 15108 16072 2621 137300 171634 28683
2012-13 115205 142655 24126 18733 25646 4186 133938 168301 28054 16655 17718 2889 150593 186019 30944
2013-14 126147 154394 25919 20664 27720 4565 146811 182114 30207 18371 19543 3187 165182 201657 33394
2014-15 137998 166962 28029 22771 29944 4976 160769 196906 32704 20249 21542 3513 181018 218448 36217
G.R. (2010-15) 9.7% 8.4% 7.7% 10.5% 8.2% 9.2% 9.8% 8.4% 7.9% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 9.9% 8.6% 8.2%
2015-16 150505 180030 30223 25017 32897 5516 175522 212927 35413 22304 23728 3870 197826 236655 39283
2016-17 163701 193621 32504 27388 36016 6094 191090 229637 38247 24393 25950 4232 215483 255587 42479
2017-18 177829 208000 34918 29934 39364 6722 207763 247364 41261 26656 28358 4625 234420 275722 45886
2018-19 193050 225803 37907 32685 42982 7408 225735 268785 44903 29107 30964 5050 254842 299749 49952
2019-20 209477 245017 41132 35662 46896 8159 245139 291913 48843 31798 33827 5516 276937 325740 54359
G.R. (2015-20) 8.7% 8.0% 8.0% 9.4% 9.4% 10.4% 8.8% 8.2% 8.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.9% 8.3% 8.5%
2020-21 226917 265416 44557 38835 51069 8969 265752 316485 53039 34709 36924 6022 300461 353409 59060
2021-22 245394 287027 48185 42195 55487 9745 287589 342514 57403 37754 40164 6550 325343 382678 63952
2022-23 265216 310213 52077 45804 60232 10578 311020 370445 62085 41086 43708 7128 352106 414154 69213
2023-24 286022 334549 56163 49599 65224 11455 335622 399773 67002 44672 47524 7750 380294 447297 74752
2024-25 307896 360134 60458 53581 70460 12374 361477 430594 72169 48397 51486 8396 409874 482080 80566
G.R. (2020-25) 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%
2025-26 331027 387189 65000 57786 75989 13345 388813 463178 77632 52383 55727 9088 441196 518906 86720
2026-27 354942 415162 69696 62154 81734 14354 417097 496896 83285 56723 60343 9841 473820 557240 93126
2027-28 379293 443644 74477 66574 87545 15375 445866 531189 89034 60939 64829 10572 506805 596018 99607
2028-29 404892 473586 79503 71209 93641 16446 476101 567227 95076 65494 69675 11363 541595 636902 106438
2029-30 432030 505328 84832 76113 100089 17578 508143 605418 101478 70417 74912 12217 578560 680330 113695
G.R. (2025-30) 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 7.8% 9.4% 8.6% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.8% 8.2% 8.1%
Table 3-18
Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country-High
2006-07 64854 86388 15138 9643 15151 2349 74497 101539 17328 8966 9538 1556 83463 111078 18883
2007-08 71510 94067 16495 11218 17114 2676 82728 111181 18996 9919 10552 1721 92647 121734 20717
2008-09 78686 102233 17899 12430 18540 2923 91117 120773 20633 10995 11697 1908 102112 132470 22541
2009-10 87224 111947 19422 13888 20262 3222 101113 132209 22438 12242 13024 2124 113355 145233 24562
G.R. (2007-10) 10.4% 9.0% 8.7% 12.9% 10.2% 11.1% 10.7% 9.2% 9.0% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.7% 9.3% 9.2%
2010-11 96257 122057 21000 15456 22066 3540 111713 144122 24316 13625 14495 2364 125338 158617 26680
2011-12 106171 133029 22666 17208 24052 3892 123379 157081 26316 15157 16124 2630 138536 173206 28945
2012-13 116712 144521 24441 19090 26135 4266 135802 170656 28446 16726 17794 2902 152529 188450 31348
2013-14 128408 157161 26383 21207 28448 4685 149615 185609 30786 18472 19651 3205 168087 205260 33990
2014-15 141283 170936 28696 23568 30993 5150 164851 201929 33538 20388 21689 3537 185239 223618 37075
G.R. (2010-15) 10.1% 8.8% 8.1% 11.2% 8.9% 9.8% 10.3% 8.8% 8.4% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.3% 9.0% 8.6%
2015-16 155090 185515 31143 26142 34377 5764 181232 219892 36572 22489 23925 3902 203722 243817 40473
2016-17 169976 201042 33750 28943 38061 6440 198920 239103 39824 24632 26204 4273 223551 265307 44098
2017-18 186250 217850 36572 32040 42133 7195 218290 259982 43368 26960 28680 4677 245250 288663 48045
2018-19 204206 238851 40097 35496 46678 8045 239702 285529 47704 29487 31369 5116 269189 316898 52820
2019-20 224070 262086 43998 39364 51765 9006 263434 313851 52521 32272 34332 5599 295706 348182 58120
G.R. (2015-20) 9.7% 8.9% 8.9% 10.8% 10.8% 11.8% 9.8% 9.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 9.3% 9.4%
2020-21 245730 287421 48251 43638 57385 10078 289369 344806 57798 35294 37547 6123 324663 382353 63922
2021-22 269419 315129 52902 48366 63602 11170 317785 378730 63489 38466 40921 6673 356251 419652 70163
2022-23 295624 345780 58048 53656 70558 12392 349279 416337 69799 41947 44625 7277 391227 460962 77076
2023-24 324010 378981 63622 59457 78186 13731 383466 457168 76649 45708 48625 7930 429174 505793 84579
2024-25 355033 415268 69713 65868 86618 15212 420901 501886 84153 49626 52794 8610 470527 554680 92762
G.R. (2020-25) 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% 10.8% 10.8% 11.1% 9.8% 9.8% 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.0% 9.7% 9.8% 9.8%
2025-26 389081 455092 76399 72982 95972 16855 462062 551064 92405 53835 57271 9340 515897 608335 101745
2026-27 425431 497610 83536 80678 106093 18632 506109 603703 101239 58432 62161 10137 564541 665864 111376
2027-28 464412 543205 91191 89026 117071 20560 553438 660275 110734 62915 66930 10915 616353 727206 121649
2028-29 506983 592999 99550 98228 129172 22686 605212 722170 121123 67774 72100 11758 672986 794270 132881
2029-30 554044 648043 108791 108504 142684 25059 662548 790728 132631 73044 77707 12672 735592 868434 145304
G.R. (2025-30) 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.3% 9.4% 9.4%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 9.8% 9.2% 9.0% 11.1% 10.2% 10.8% 10.0% 9.3% 9.3% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.9% 9.4% 9.3%
Table 3-19
Load Forecast PEPCO, KESC, Self Generation and Country including DSM
2006-07 64854 86388 15138 9643 15151 2349 74497 101539 17328 8966 9538 1556 83463 111078 18883
2007-08 71462 94004 16484 11207 17098 2673 82669 111102 18983 9916 10549 1720 92585 121651 20703
2008-09 78546 102051 17388 12399 18494 2916 90945 120545 20119 10986 11688 1906 101932 132232 22025
2009-10 86913 111548 18455 13818 20159 3206 100731 131707 21464 12224 13005 2121 112955 144711 23584
G.R. (2007-10) 10.3% 8.9% 6.8% 12.7% 10.0% 10.9% 10.6% 9.1% 7.4% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.6% 9.2% 7.7%
2010-11 95680 121324 19507 15324 21877 3509 111003 143201 22807 13594 14462 2358 124597 157663 25165
2011-12 105209 131824 21195 16983 23738 3841 122192 155562 24808 15108 16072 2621 137300 171634 27429
2012-13 115205 142655 22936 18733 25646 4186 133938 168301 26876 16655 17718 2889 150593 186019 29765
2013-14 126147 154394 24824 20664 27720 4565 146811 182114 29121 18371 19543 3187 165182 201657 32309
2014-15 137998 166962 26844 22771 29944 4976 160769 196906 31531 20249 21542 3513 181018 218448 35044
G.R. (2010-15) 9.7% 8.4% 7.8% 10.5% 8.2% 9.2% 9.8% 8.4% 8.0% 10.6% 10.6% 10.6% 9.9% 8.6% 8.2%
2015-16 150505 180030 28946 25017 32897 5516 175522 212927 34148 22304 23728 3870 197826 236655 38017
2016-17 163701 193621 31131 27388 36016 6094 191090 229637 36886 24393 25950 4232 215483 255587 41118
2017-18 177829 208000 33443 29934 39364 6722 207763 247364 39799 26656 28358 4625 234420 275722 44424
2018-19 193050 225803 36305 32685 42982 7408 225735 268785 43315 29107 30964 5050 254842 299749 48365
2019-20 209477 245017 39394 35662 46896 8159 245139 291913 47120 31798 33827 5516 276937 325740 52637
G.R. (2015-20) 8.7% 8.0% 8.0% 9.4% 9.4% 10.4% 8.8% 8.2% 8.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.9% 8.3% 8.5%
2020-21 226917 265416 42674 38835 51069 8969 265752 316485 51173 34709 36924 6022 300461 353409 57195
2021-22 245394 287027 46149 42195 55487 9745 287589 342514 55385 37754 40164 6550 325343 382678 61935
2022-23 265216 310213 49877 45804 60232 10578 311020 370445 59905 41086 43708 7128 352106 414154 67033
2023-24 286022 334549 53789 49599 65224 11455 335622 399773 64651 44672 47524 7750 380294 447297 72401
2024-25 307896 360134 57903 53581 70460 12374 361477 430594 69638 48397 51486 8396 409874 482080 78034
G.R. (2020-25) 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.7% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%
2025-26 331027 387189 62253 57786 75989 13345 388813 463178 74911 52383 55727 9088 441196 518906 83999
2026-27 354942 415162 66751 62154 81734 14354 417097 496896 80367 56723 60343 9841 473820 557240 90208
2027-28 379293 443644 71330 66574 87545 15375 445866 531189 85916 60939 64829 10572 506805 596018 96488
2028-29 404892 473586 76144 71209 93641 16446 476101 567227 91747 65494 69675 11363 541595 636902 103110
2029-30 432030 505328 81248 76113 100089 17578 508143 605418 97927 70417 74912 12217 578560 680330 110143
G.R. (2025-30) 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1%
AVG. G. R.
(2007-2030) 8.6% 8.0% 7.6% 9.4% 8.6% 9.1% 8.7% 8.1% 7.8% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 8.8% 8.2% 8.0%
FIG 3-1
Category Wise Composition Of Loads (GWh Sales)
others
Agriculture 5%
9%
Domestic
41%
Industrial
37%
Commercial
8%
Year - 2010
others
Agriculture 6%
7%
Domestic
35%
Industrial
40%
Commercial
12%
Year - 2020
others
6%
Agriculture
6% Domestic
33%
Industrial
42%
Commercial
13%
Year - 2030
Note Industrial energy includes self generation.

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NATIONAL TRANSMISSION AND DESPATCH

ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST

OFFICE OF G.M. PLANNING POWER

Number Title Page No.

Sr. No. Abbreviations Full Word

Years Low Normal High

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Low

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - Normal

Summary of Load Forecast PEPCO - High

2001-02 59876 10109 67.6

2001-02 12115 1885 73.4

2.2 Energy Share (Province Wise & Category Wise)

Energy Share in Sales (Category –wise)

3.1 Regression Methodology

3.1.1 Parameters of Regression

3.3 Elasticity Coefficients by Customer Class

3.4 Projections of Independent Variables

The projection of population, domestic and agriculture customer are presented in

3.5 Regression Results

3.8 Forecast with DSM

3.9 Category Wise Composition of Loads (GWh Sales)

Sales Category Variables Elasticities

Commercial GDP-Commercial 1.4009

Industrial Industrial GDP Per Capita 1.30922

Agriculture GDP-Agriculture 1.16506

Figures in the brackets are corresponding Lag values

Projected GDP Growth Rates

Actual Population and Customers-Country (1970-2007)

Projected Population and Customers-Country (2008-2030)

(Millions) GR (%) No. GR(%) No. No Adj. Factor No % No. GR(%)

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