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Chasing a rainbow alliance
Bypoll results show that Narendra Modi can be challenged. Yet Opposition unity is more easily proposed than achieved
beaten at its own game by the Con BJP under Mr. Modi is, it can be ing and later ministrymaking kick
gress and the Janata Dal (Secular), beaten comprehensively if the par in. The Karnataka example is al
GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO
29 States. Yet there is the paradox pushed back the BJP via a deftly ex quoted as saying he was obligated
RBI will have to take a call on raising rates Vidya Subrahmaniam of the party winning the big elec ecuted postpoll pact, has shown to the Congress, the senior partn
tions and losing the bypolls. In the the way. Estimates suggest that to er, and not to the people of Karna
O
fficial data showing the GDP expanding at the
fastest pace in seven quarters in the three latest round of bypolls, it man gether the two parties might have taka. This is an ominous sign given
W
hen four years ago, the aged to win only two of 15 seats crossed the 150 mark in the 224 the Congress’s reputation for act
months ended March 31, a brisk 7.7% at that, is
Narendra Modiled Bha (one of each in four Lok Sabha and member State Assembly. In the ing imperious when in a superior
reason for cheer. Given that this has been propelled lar ratiya Janata Party (BJP) 11 Assembly seats); it lost the third Lok Sabha, a CongressJD(S) al position and its unedifying record
gely by increases in manufacturing and construction won a majority of seats in the Lok consecutive Lok Sabha bypoll in liance could mean only six of 28 of pulling down governments at
activity is a basis for optimism given that the former Sabha, there was not a shred of Uttar Pradesh. On all three U.P more united. seats for the BJP. the Centre.
contributes almost a fifth of quarterly gross value added doubt about the new Prime Minis seats, the BJP’s opponents got to If this ought to discomfit Team A prepoll pact between the Sa
(GVA) and the latter about 8%. The rebound in con ter’s preeminent position in In gether to beat it. In Kairana this Modi, consider the fact that in the majwadi Party and the Bahujan Sa Trail of fallen governments
struction is all the more heartening since it is both a dian politics. He was astonishingly month, the victory of Tabassum majority of State Assembly elec maj Party in U.P is similarly capa Between 1979 and 1997, the Con
popular with a committed, almost Hasan, a Muslim woman, was par tions held since 2014, the BJP’s ble of delivering blockbluster gress toppled four governments,
creator of direct and indirect jobs and a multiplier of ov
fanatical following. As he won ticularly significant for defeating vote share has dropped well below results. A simple addition of the led each by Charan Singh, Chan
erall output. In the fourth quarter, construction is esti election after election, taking his the polarisation attempts made what it polled in the Lok Sabha vote shares of the two parties in dra Shekhar, H.D. Deve Gowda
mated to have posted a robust 11.5% growth, almost a party to the farthest corners, his during the campaign. election. A comparison shows that the February 2017 Assembly elec and Inder Kumar Gujral. As he ex
doubling in pace from the 6.6% in the third quarter, and legend acquired superhero dimen Whatever the future of Opposi in Bihar, the drop was from tion shows them to be matchwin ited, Mr. Gowda reminded former
compares favourably with the contraction of 3.9% seen sions. Convinced of his invincibili tion unity, there is a message in 29.86% to 24.42%. In Goa, from ners against the BJP. Opposition Prime Minister and the then lead
in the demonetisationhit yearearlier period. Two key ty, critics and admirers alike began the statistics for the Prime Minis 54.12% to 32.48%. In Gujarat, seatsharing in Karnataka and U.P. er of the Congress Parliamentary
groupings of services that together contributed more speaking of 2024 as the election ter. In peak form in 2014, Mr. Modi where it won all 26 Lok Sabha alone can set the BJP back by 70 or Party, P.V. Narasimha Rao, of the
that might challenge him. could capture a vote share of only seats, from 60.11% to 49.05%. In more seats, not to mention the promise he had made to him: “His
than 38% of fourthquarter GVA — the first comprising
31.34 % for the BJP, which is histor Uttarakhand, from 55.93% to magnified effect of the formula be tory will not say that it was be
trade, hotels, transport, communication and broad Change in the air? ically the lowest vote polled by a 46.51%; in Karnataka from 43.37% ing adopted in other States. cause of the Congress party that
casting; and the second, financial, real estate and pro With a year to go before Mr. Modi’s party winning an absolute majori to 36.20% and in West Bengal from This is as far as theory goes. In this government has fallen.” To be
fessional services — accelerated yearonyear, helping term ends, few will dispute that ty nationally. To put this in per 17.02% to 10.16%. The BJP could practical terms, synchronised sure, it is a different Congress that
lift fullyear sectoral GVA growth. Agriculture, forestry his persona still overwhelms and spective, with a vote share of not do an encore even in U.P, Statewise Opposition unity is ea is today in the forefront of Opposi
and fishing continued an accelerating trend over the he has no rivals to match. Yet so 39.53% Rajiv Gandhi lost the 1989 where it picked up 71 of 80 Lok sier spoken of than done. Alliances tion unity efforts. Sonia and Rahul
four quarters of the last fiscal, with growth of 4.5% mething somewhere is not quite election. With a vote share of Sabha seats. Its massive haul of 312 work best when the vote bases of Gandhi have been chastened by
the same. He can still walk into the 34.52% cent, Indira Gandhi’s Con of 403 Assembly seats came on a partners are complementary rath the successive routs since 2014,
boosting the annual expansion to 3.4%. While the fiscal
fag end of a losing election cam gress sat in the Opposition in 1977. vote share of 39.67%, marking a er than overlapping or antagonis and in any event they are gentler
year’s pace for this vital sector is still appreciably lower paign and turn it around. That’s How did this happen? Mr. Modi three percentage point drop com tic, and party workers and leaders versions of the dictatorial yeste
than the 6.3% in 201617, if the quarterly momentum is become the expected thing, in was unassailable against a splin pared to 2014. alike are able to see the larger pic ryear Congress bosses.
sustained and the monsoon pans out as forecast, we fact. But there is a weariness about tered opposition whereas Indira ture. Most importantly, alliances The Congress has a special res
could see a more broadbased revival in rural demand. the victories, a realisation that and Rajiv Gandhi were defeated by What-ifs work when there is mutual respect ponsibility in Karnataka. The mo
There are, however, pressure points in the estimates more often than not they are pro a combined Opposition. Also, in Should the declining trend conti and the senior partner or the sup del has absolutely to succeed for
of national expenditure. Private final consumption ex ducts of deliberately provocative the firstpastthepost system, the nue, the BJP will find it harder to porting party does not get carried Opposition unity elsewhere to suc
penditure continues to languish, with the share of its and polarising messaging. There is winner is decided as much by how win a majority in 2019. Winning away by an exaggerated sense of ceed. One wrong step, one sign of
similarly a feeling of contrived well the opponent fares. In 2014, will become an uphill task in the selfworth. power lust, and the BJP, with all its
contribution to GDP sliding to 54.6% in the January
smartness to Team Modi’s strata the BJP’s triumphant march to a event Opposition unity, dazzlingly Unfortunately, the history of failures and some more, will come
March period, from 59.3% in the preceding quarter and gem of conjuring governments out full majority was aided equally by displayed at the swearing in of coalition governments in this out looking vastly superior to its
55.2% a year earlier. Government spending too eased in of defeat, seen in Goa, Manipur, the Congress’s dismal showing. H.D. Kumaraswamy as Karnataka country does not inspire confi squabbling opponents.
the fourth quarter, as a proportion, to the lowest quar and most stunningly in Megha The BJP had a 12 percentage point Chief Minister and witnessed in dence. Lofty sentiments ex
terly level of the last fiscal at 9.5%. Only gross fixed cap laya, where the BJP won only two lead over its nearest rival. The re the string of byelections, stays the pressed prior to alliance formation Vidya Subrahmaniam is Senior Fellow at
ital formation, which reflects investment demand, pro of 60 seats. In the recent election sults might have been different course and translates into votes on tend to melt away and ideological The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public
vided cause for some comfort as it contributed 32.2%, to the Karnataka Assembly, the had the Congress performed bet the ground. Opposition leaders considerations take a back seat Policy. E-mail: vidya.subrahmaniam
formula bombed and the BJP was ter or if the Opposition had been have figured that formidable as the when the exigencies of seatshar @thehinducentre.com
which was the most in percentage terms since the
32.5% posted in AprilJune 2016. A sobering thought
here is that the very same growth momentum is likely
to spur price pressures across the economy that, com
bined with the bullish trend in global oil, could fan fas
The democracy project in Bangladesh
ter inflation. This may leave the RBI with little option The Awami League government’s success in turning around the economy and health care must not be overlooked
but to raise interest rates, possibly as early as next
Party has rejected the study as democratic vision driven by the campaign directed against the
week. Separately, the latest surveybased Nikkei India baseless and claimed the country mantra of economic growth ver Awami League, a party that had
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index shows ma to be a “100 percent democracy”, sus a replica of Pakistan’s religion led the country to freedom, did
nufacturing activity expanded at a weaker pace in May the main opposition Bangladesh driven politics) but it also pan not amount to a murder of democ
from the previous month amid tepid domestic demand. Nationalist Party (BNP), has said dered to a militarydriven propa racy for the West, but when BNP
With borrowing costs set to rise and global trade ten the report reflects the true nature ganda that Bangladesh had better Jamaat leaders are jailed for lead
sions adding to uncertainties for India’s exporters who Subir Bhaumik of Bangladesh’s current political prospects if led by a cabal of tech ing and instigating violence, the
climate. nocrats, micro and macrobank West has cried ‘murder of democ
are yet to capitalise on the rupee weakness, policymak
A project manager for the BTI at ers, military generals and intelli racy’. A top U.S. counterterrorism
ers will need to eschew populism and stick to policy
B
angladesh, Lebanon, Mo the Bertelsmann Foundation gence chiefs. expert has been profuse in his
prudence if the tenuous momentum is to be sustained. zambique, Nicaragua and claims the report is balanced as it praise of Bangladesh’s counterter
AFP
T
he political whirlwind that has swept Italy looks On Bangladesh, the report says, lopments” in the political realm holding an immediate poll, ruled clusive social and human develop tened the very soul of a secular,
to be dissipating, at least for now. Giuseppe “Due to the worsened quality of such as free and fair elections, the Bangladesh for two years without ment in areas such as gender syncretic Bangladesh.
Conte, a littleknown academic with an embel elections, the formerly fifth largest separation of powers and the inde any mandate. It was a murder of empowerment and public health India has a huge stake in having
democracy is classified as an au pendence of the judiciary. democracy. The militarybacked care. But the West, especially the a friendly regime in Dhaka for stra
lished resume, has been sworn in as Prime Minister, af
tocracy again. These develop caretaker also tried to finish the U.S., has sought to punish Prime tegic and economic reasons. Our
ter weeks of wrangling between President Sergio Matta ments are worrying for citizens be A long journey political career of Bangladesh’s Minister Sheikh Hasina for not al democracies in Asia have many
rella and a coalition with a slim parliamentary majority. cause corruption, social exclusion Since the restoration of democra two top politicians, Sheikh Hasina lowing a free run to the ambitions limitations but there is no reason
The twoparty combine, the antiestablishment Five and barriers to fair economic com cy after the fall of the H.M. Ershad (picture) and Khaleda Zia, with a of Nobel laureate Mohammed Yu to let the West use that to misre
Star Movement (M5S) led by Luigi Di Maio and the far petition continue to be more pre led military junta in 1990, Bangla ‘minus two agenda’, as if the con nus. The BNP leader, Khaleda Zia, present or subvert these national
right League headed by the rabblerousing, antimi valent in autocracies.” The BTI desh has witnessed a change of go flict in Bangladesh was about a had boycotted the 2014 election to sovereignties.
grant Matteo Salvini, disbanded plans to form a govern has, since 2006, been measuring vernment every five years. The personal ego clash between the protest the absence of a caretaker
quality of democracy, market eco polls were held under a neutral ca two women. Not only did the administration; in any case the Subir Bhaumik, a former BBC bureau
ment after Mr. Mattarella exercised his powers to block
nomy and governance in 129 deve retaker administration until the Western media and civil society campaign of violence unleashed chief for East and Northeast India, is
the appointment of Eurosceptic Paolo Savona as Fi loping and transformation coun Awami League came to power in underplay the element of ideologi during the BNP’s reign in the early editorial consultant with Myanmar’s
nance Minister. The President then decided to order tries. Expectedly, in Bangladesh, December 2008 and scrapped the cal conflict between two warring 2000s cannot be forgotten. It is Mizzima Media. He has worked as senior
fresh elections and appoint an exIMF official as interim while the ruling Awami League system using its decisive majority visions of Bangladesh (a secular, odd that this systematic lethal editor for bdnews24. com
Prime Minister, a decision that, if implemented, could
have made a bad situation worse. The Eurosceptic coa LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to letters@thehindu.co.in must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
lition partners wasted no time in using the President’s
actions as a rallying point for their cause. They charged
that France and Germany were running Italy and called
Poll scorecard blowing and the BJP has a Prime Minister. The writer biomass) is most welcome. What next for AI? support to such an idea.
A significant fallout of the major reason to worry. should have dealt with a few Though ethanol is now It is well known, as the There is no dearth of
for Mr. Mattarella’s impeachment. The prospect of snap BJP having been put on the Gregory Fernandes, of the challenges the former produced from stockrich media often highlights, that managerial talent in the
polls, which could have resulted in the populists getting back foot, first in Karnataka Mumbai leader could not understand materials such as corn and Air India has a nearly country and Air India’s
a stronger majority, rattled markets early this week. Ita and now in the by and those he did not touch sugarcane it can also be ₹50,000 crore debt. revival can be made a
lian bond yields hit highs unseen in years and share elections, is perhaps a In the House upon. He could have tried to made from cellulosic However, this amount is textbook case.
prices dropped not just in Italy but across Europe, the refurbished role for many In this age of political assess his tangible biomass such as wood, nothing when compared to Meher Mistry,
lians and the stated values and integrity of the EU. indicator of which way the delivered by a follower or a using domestically produced Amrinder Singh Mann, recognise their own more letters online:
wind of public support is sycophant of the former feedstock (agricultural Sangrur, Punjab predicament and will extend www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/
CM M ND-NDE
YK