Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Singapore Property
NEUTRAL (Initiating coverage)
Monday, 24 October 2011
02 December 2014
REALTY BITES
We initiate coverage of the Singapore property sector
with a NEUTRAL rating. Even though developer
stocks are generally cheap by historical standards,
we urge caution as we see limited upside catalysts to
drive share price performance. Our top picks are
Keppel Land (TP:S$4.50) and Wing Tai (TP: S$2.30),
which in our view are trading at attractive deep value.
Investment Thesis
We initiate coverage of the Singapore property sector with a NEUTRAL
rating. While property stocks are mostly inexpensive, we foresee that the
local markets will face more headwinds with few near-term positive catalysts
to re-rate stock prices significantly. We advocate stock-picking and prefer
companies with more diversified operations and trading at deep valuations.
Keppel Land is our top big-cap pick (TP: S$4.50) for its geographically-
diversified exposure and the prospect of generous FY14 dividends, while
Wing Tai is our top mid-cap pick (TP: S$2.30) for its deep value.
Residential market poised for more downside. The main bugbear for
Singapore property developers and investors, we foresee little end in sight
for the current muted state of the Singapore residential market. We expect
further price declines of 15-20% by end-2016, premised on waning
upgraders’ demand, reduced affordability as interest rates rise and most
importantly, the impending oversupply situation once physical completions
catch up with the market. Nonetheless, the stock market has already priced
in more than a 20% ASP reduction, in our view.
Office party may end in 2016. The Singapore office sector has been the
only bright spot in recent times, as landlords enjoy more pricing power
amidst the temporary supply squeeze for prime office space in the CBD.
Conditions are likely to remain favourable for landlords over the next 12
months as the supply situation remains benign. We foresee that the
dynamics will change as 2016 approaches, given the massive supply wave
of 3.7m sq ft of prime Grade A space expected in that year, which we
believe will then lead to downward pressure on rents. We initiate coverage
on CapitaCommercial Trust - the best proxy to the Singapore office sector in
our view, with a HOLD recommendation and TP of S$1.76.
Look further afield. The recent policy moves by the Chinese government
to stimulate the economy is likely to prove beneficial for developers with
sizeable operations in China, such as CapitaLand and KepLand. There are
initial signs of a turnaround in the Vietnamese property market, where
CapitaLand and KepLand also have significant presence. A recovery in
these markets will mitigate further headwinds faced by the companies in
their home market, Singapore.
Table of Contents
Page
The Singapore Property Quagmire ...................................................... 3
All Eyes on the Impending Housing Supply ....................................... 4
Office Reprieve Could Be Short-Lived .............................................. 14
Size Matters in Retail .......................................................................... 20
Silver Linings Beyond Our Shores ................................................... 25
Company Notes ................................................................................... 27
CapitaLand ........................................................................................ 29
CapitaCommercial Trust .................................................................. 33
CapitaMall Trust ............................................................................... 39
City Developments Ltd .................................................................... 44
Keppel Land ...................................................................................... 48
UOL Group ........................................................................................ 53
Wing Tai Holdings ............................................................................ 58
Appendices .......................................................................................... 62
The Singapore Property Quagmire
Property stocks have generally underperformed the wider market over the
past two years, after having fallen out of favour since the government rolled
out a slew of property cooling measures and implemented the Total Debt
Servicing Ratio (TDSR). While the residential sector has been the most
impacted, headwinds are also present for the other sub-segments, such as
the office and retail front.
In our opinion, property stocks are likely to continue to trend in line with the
broader market, barring any major macro shocks. As such, we adopt a
NEUTRAL view on the sector, and prefer to pick stocks that are better
positioned for the next few years.
Our top big-cap pick is Keppel Land, mainly on its attractive valuations of
0.72x P/B and 0.56x P/RNAV. Having recently announced the proposed
divestment of MBFC Tower 3 to Keppel REIT, shareholders can look
forward to more generous dividends this year. We have a target price of
$4.50, suggesting a 33.5% price upside.
Wing Tai is our top mid-cap pick. It is currently trading at deep valuations of
0.46x P/B and 0.49x P/RNAV. While the market is currently not conducive
for its high-end projects in Ardmore Park, namely Le Nouvel Ardmore and
Nouvel 18, we believe the stock is very compelling on a risk/rewards basis,
backed by an estimated dividend yield of ~3% p.a. Our TP of $2.30 offers a
potential upside of 33.7%.
Source: Bloomberg
All Eyes on the Impending Housing Supply
End of the bull run. The Singapore residential sector is a closely-watched
market, given the high home ownership rate in Singapore of 90.5% as at
end-2013, and that residential property assets make up a significant 41.4%
of the average household’s net worth.
With so much at stake, the Singapore government has been trying to steer
the housing market into a soft landing, after its spectacular trough-to-peak
run-up of 62.3% from 2Q09 to 3Q13, as measured by the URA’s Private
Residential Property Price Index (PPI).
Since Sep 2009, the government has rolled out seven rounds of cooling
measures (see Appendix A) and introduced the Total Debt Servicing Ratio
(TDSR) framework to temper the market, and the effects have been telling
with the TDSR appearing to be the straw that broke the camel’s back. For
10M14, developers sold 6,884 units (excluding ECs), or barely 50% of the
units sold in the same period last year. The PPI is also in its fourth
consecutive quarter of decline as at 3Q14, although the correction from
3Q13’s peak has been rather mild at 3.8% thus far.
Fig 3: URA Private Property Price Indices vs HDB Resale Price Index
Early days yet for multi-year correction. Despite the much softer market
conditions today, we believe it is still early days in this latest down-cycle. We
expect primary sales activity in the private residential segment to remain
tepid at 8,000-10,000 units (excluding ECs) p.a. in 2015 and 2016 - similar
to the level expected for the whole of 2014, as compared with 14,948 and
22,197 units sold in 2013 and 2012 respectively. Price-wise, we forecast a
further 15-20% decline by end-2016, led primarily by the mass market
segment.
A Case for More Downside
Within the OCR, buyers with HDB addresses make up on average 55% of
the transactions in the last 2.5 years, suggesting a significant portion of the
demand has been from upgraders. This is not surprising, considering the
fact that the HDB Resale Price Index had doubled in the period of 1Q05 to
3Q13, resulting in significant wealth effect and underpinning stronger
confidence for HDB owners to upgrade to private properties.
Source: URA
We believe that the wealth effect has already begun to diminish, given that
the HDB Resale Price Index has declined by 6.0% from the recent peak in
2Q13. This was a consequence of increased new HDB Build-To-Order
(BTO) launches, as well as more stringent measures targeting public
housing introduced in Jan and Aug 2013, such as the implementation of the
Mortgage Servicing Ratio (not to be confused with the Total Debt Servicing
Ratio) and the requirement for Permanent Residents (PRs) who buy private
properties to dispose of their HDB flats within six months.
Fig 5: Summary of regulatory changes pertaining to HDB flat ownership
Before 12 Jan 2013 After 12 Jan 2013 After 27 Aug 2013
Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR)*
for HDB loans 40% 35% 30%
MSR for loans by financial
institutions (FIs) N/A 30% 30%
Max. loan tenure of HDB loans 30 years 30 years 25 years
Max. loan tenure for loans by FIs 35 years 35 years 30 years
Subletting of whole flats owned Disallowed. Only subletting
by PRs Allowed with HDB consent of rooms allowed Unchanged
Retention of HDB flats owned by HDB flats must be disposed
PRs after purchasing private Allowed, after meeting within 6 months of private
property Minimum Occupation Period property purchase** Unchanged
* MSR is ratio of monthly instalment (based on medium-term interest rate) over borrower's gross monthly income
** Or within 6 months of granting Temporary Occupation Permit or Certificate of Statutory Completion for uncompleted property
Source: MAS, HDB
AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd Page 6
Wages have not risen as strongly. Wage growth has yet to catch up with
the rapid rise in property prices over the last decade, despite the recent
softening in prices. Fig 6 below shows the breakdown of the average
monthly household income for resident employed households over the ten-
year period between 2003 and 2013.
We deem the segment of households under the “HDB 5-Room & Executive
Flats” category as the best proxy to upgraders demand in the private mass
market segment. Households in this category saw their average monthly
household incomes grow at a CAGR of 4.8%. However, the rise in the PPI
for the OCR (1Q04 - 1Q14) was much faster at 7.4%. Assuming household
income growth remains at 4.8% p.a. through till 2016, we estimate that the
mass market prices have to either decline by another ~10% over the next
two years or approximately 13% in 2015 to at least match income growth.
Fig 6: Avg monthly household income from work (incl. employer CPF contributions)
HDB 5-Room & Condominiums & Other
Year HDB 4-Room
Executive Flats Apartments
2003 $4,655 $7,013 $12,182
2004 $4,592 $6,767 $12,149
2005 $4,872 $7,295 $12,711
2006 $4,981 $7,384 $13,011
2007 $5,395 $7,923 $14,494
2008 $6,069 $9,022 $16,086
2009 $6,135 $8,811 $15,730
2010 $6,483 $9,186 $16,315
2011 $7,220 $10,160 $18,025
2012 $7,626 $10,735 $19,026
2013 $7,974 $11,199 $19,340
CAGR 5.5% 4.8% 4.7%
Source: Department of Statistics
Source: URA
Besides capping debt liabilities at 60% of the borrower’s gross monthly
income, the TDSR requires banks to determine the loan quantum by using a
prescribed medium-term interest rate, which is currently set at not less than
3.5% for residential properties and 4.5% for non-residential properties.
The MAS has stated clearly that the TDSR is meant to be a permanent
framework to ensure that banks remain prudent in their lending (vis-à-vis
cooling measures which may be relaxed or removed when the market
conditions allow for it). With the TDSR here to stay, we expect transactional
volumes to remain muted over the next 12-24 months, as things stand.
Fig 8: Share of new housing loan borrowers with Fig 9: Sensitivity test on mortgage servicing burden—
existing housing loans MSR could rise to 81% for marginal borrowers
Source: MAS
Evidence 3: Be prepared for the deluge of completed units. Following
very robust developer sales of 84,029 units between the years 2009 and
2013, the pipeline of completed private residential units in the next few years
will naturally surge. 2016 will see the peak supply of completed units,
currently estimated at 23,459 units - more than double the pre-2014 yearly
average of 10,015 units. The number of completed HDB flats will also
accelerate, as the government has been rolling out > 22,000 new flats p,a,
since 2011.
The increase in completed supply on its own may not warrant concern, if it is
underpinned by higher demand of similar magnitude. Looking at population
growth, we noted that the Singapore population grew by 1.2m from 4.4m in
2006 to an estimated 5.47m in 2014 - a 24.3% increase in the period.
Fig 10: Completion schedule of private residential
properties
Not all non-residents add to incremental demand for homes. While the
population may have grown substantially, the bulk of the increase (0.72m)
can be attributable to the non-resident population, consisting largely of
transient workers. In fact, Work Permit Holders and Foreign Domestic
Workers make up a hefty 59% of the total non-resident population of 1.6m
people as of 2014. Given the nature of their jobs, these segments of the
population are not expected to add to incremental demand for dwelling units.
Fig 11: Breakdown of Singapore’s population (Jun 2014)
Is the supply surge necessary ominous? To further ascertain
fundamental demand, we modeled the total number of households against
the expected total number of completed dwelling units, comprising HDB
flats, ECs and private properties. The assumption is that the market is
efficient enough such that new households will be neutral on the type of
dwelling units they live in, as long as there is a roof over their heads.
Based on our estimates, there was an intrinsic undersupply for the most part
of the last decade, as physical completions lagged household formation. The
largest deficit of over 70,000 units was experienced in 2010, which was also
when the PPI experienced the sharpest rise. The situation is expected to
reverse in 2016, which could see a surplus of around 26,000 units. The
surplus is likely to swell to 44,000 in 2017, which is about two years’ worth of
demand, unless household formation grows faster than we expect.
Fig 13: Comparison of number of households vs total number of dwelling units in Singapore
Implications for a potential oversupply. With more dwelling units than
households, we expect vacancy rates to rise to ~10%. Homeowners with
investment properties are likely to face keener competition for tenants, which
may exacerbate the current slide in rents. Upgraders’ demand for mass
market properties will also be impacted as buyers looking to rent out their
HDB units face the prospect of lower rental income which is typically used to
offset their mortgage payments on their private properties.
As of 3Q14, the URA Private Sector Rental Index has already slid by 2.5%
YoY. The SRI HDB Rental Index indicates that HDB rents have fallen by 9%
from the peak in Jan 13.
Coupled with the prospect of normalizing interest rates, we expect the over-
leveraged investors to offload some of their properties to reduce their
exposure, perhaps even before the supply surge in 2016. Hence, we expect
to see a more significant property price correction possibly by mid-2015.
Source: URA
What Happens When Interest Rates Rise?
Marginal homebuyers feel the hardest pinch. Mortgage rates today are
still very cheap at ~1.5% p.a. or less for the first year. To see how a rise in
interest rates will impact monthly loan payments, we use the example of a
S$1m loan, 30-year loan. At 1.5%, the monthly payments works out to
S$3,451. However, when interest rates rise to 3.5%, which is the policy rate
used under the TDSR framework, monthly interest payments will rise to
S$4,490 - a 30.1% increase. The additional out-of-pocket payment of
~$1,000 per month may be quite substantial for the marginal homebuyer.
Fig 16: Monthly loan payments for a S$1m loan— Fig 17: Effects of higher interest rates on our base
base case at 1.5% case example of S$1m loan
Our analysis results in an implied MSR of 25% for the OCR - well within the
one-third rule as guided by conventional financial wisdom. This is due to the
low market interest rates and the downsizing of units by developers.
However, if we retrospectively impute a minimum mortgage rate of 3.5% (as
per TDSR), then the MSR will rise to 31% as at 3Q14, suggesting that prices
are just on the cusp of affordability. Given that our analysis uses the
average income rather than median income (which tends to be lower),
affordability could generally be lower than we estimated.
Fig 18: Implied MSRs based on market rates and TDSR prescribed rates
Are Cooling Measures Still Needed?
The short answer is “Yes”. The current state of the residential market is
testament to the efficacy of the TDSR, which is not a property cooling
measure per se, but a permanent framework put in place to ensure proper
financial discipline by the financial institutions. As a consequence, the
relevance of the cooling measures, such as the Additional Buyer’s Stamp
Duty (ABSD) and the Seller’s Stamp Duty (SSD), may be in doubt.
With mortgage rates still as low as 1.5%, we concur that it is too early to
remove the cooling measures to avoid another bout of irrational exuberance.
In particular, specific measures like the SSD continue to be relevant in
preventing speculative activity such as flipping, as long as the low interest
rate environment persists. Lower LTVs for borrowers with outstanding home
loans also work in tandem with the TDSR to ensure that investors are not
overleveraged in pursuit of possibly declining yields. (Refer to Appendix A
for the full history of property cooling measures.)
Possible room for slight tweaks. Even though the cooling measures will
likely stay for some time, we opine that there is scope to tweak the current
ABSD structure to unlock the stalemate in the high-end segment. The high-
end segment has been the most impacted since the first introduction of the
ABSD in end-2011, because demand in this segment had traditionally been
supported by wealthy foreigners who now face the highest ABSD at 15%.
The longer this drags on, Singapore may potentially lose its sheen and thus
its ability to attract the wealthy and financially savvy investors who may
eventually choose to settle down in Singapore.
We think that a tweaking of the ABSD such that it becomes less punitive for
foreigners buying high-end units (e.g. >S$5m per unit) could help unlock the
high-end stalemate, given that the underlying prices of high-end properties
are relatively attractive compared with other global gateway cities.
Such a move is likely to have limited impact on the other segments. Prices in
the mass market segment will continue to be dictated by the affordability to
local upgraders and middle-income PRs, while the government will continue
to manage the pricing of public housing, which accounts for 81.9% of
resident households.
Fig 19: Property cooling measures that are currently in force
Source: URA
Implications of a Sustained Slowdown
Of the stocks under our coverage, Wing Tai is the most exposed to the
Singapore residential sector in terms of its RNAV sensitivity to ASP
changes. If property prices fall by 20%, we estimate that Wing Tai’s RNAV
would fall by 7.3% from our base case RNAV to S$3.28/share. However, the
stock is trading at a steep 49% discount to that bear-case RNAV, which
suggests that there is huge mispricing.
Impact on big-caps is less than 5% each. The big-cap stocks are naturally
better diversified. CDL has the largest Singapore residential landbank, but
based on our estimates, its RNAV would decline by only 3.6% to $12.09/
share, if ASPs fall by 20%. The RNAV impact on KepLand, CapitaLand and
UOL are even more immaterial, at -0.8%, -1.2% and -2.3% respectively.
Office Reprieve could be Short-Lived
Temporary supply-demand mismatch favours landlords for now. Office
rents have staged a mini-rally after bottoming out in 3Q13, with prime Grade
A rents climbing by 18.7% YoY to $11.94 psf as at 3Q14, according to data
by JLL. The rebound was driven largely by favourable supply dynamics -
there has not been additional Grade A supply in the CBD since the
completion of Asia Square Tower 2 in 3Q13.
The supply pipeline is expected to be chunky. The next wave of new Grade
A supply in the CBD will come with the completion of CapitaGreen (700,000
sq ft) and South Beach (~520,000 sq ft) by end-2014, before another dry
spell of more than four quarters without any new completions in the CBD.
However, 3.7m sq ft of new supply will come onstream in 2016, with the
completion of Marina One, DUO, V on Shenton, Guoco Tower and the
redevelopment of International Factors Building and Robinson Towers.
Fig 21: Nett demand and supply of Singapore office space (Central Area)
In the tight market, there still are various options. We estimate that Asia
Square Tower 2, with an NLA of 775,000 sq ft, has a committed occupancy
rate of just ~70% despite it being over a year already since obtaining its
TOP. Of the impending supply, CapitaGreen has secured pre-commitment
for ~40% of its NLA from MNCs such as Cargill and Jardine Lloyd
Thompson.
Over at South Beach, lease commitments for ~33% of the office space have
been secured, with Rabobank and Bain & Company amongst the tenants.
CDL revealed that negotiations for another 50% of the space is being firmed
up and is confident of achieving ~90% commitment by end-2014.
Assuming no new take-up until the end of the year, we estimate the
available space from these three developments alone would add up to
~1.0m sq ft (or about a year’s worth of demand).
Even though the supply pipeline currently lacks visibility beyond 2017, we
believe sites will be progressively made available via the Government Land
Sales programme. In fact, the URA has set aside enough land in Marina Bay
for at least another one million sqm (~10.7 m sq ft) of prime office space.
That is equivalent to almost another four Marina Bay Financial Centres!
Fig 24: Ample “White sites” around Marina Bay for future developments
Source: OneMap
AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd Page 17
Where will the demand come from? Based on the leasing activity YTD,
demand for office space has been brisk, mainly coming from a diversified
mix of tenants from sectors such as Technology, Insurance, Energy and
Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG).
Banks, which were traditionally the largest occupiers of office space, have
been largely inactive. In fact, some of them continue to rationalize space to
cut costs in tandem with headcount cuts. An increasing proportion of back-
office operations are being relocated to lower-cost emerging markets, such
as India. Labour practices in Singapore have also been tightened this year,
with companies now required to advertise jobs for professionals locally first,
before seeking people from abroad.
We believe that the structural problems plaguing global banks are likely to
persist in the medium term, crimping their demand for additional office space
in Singapore. As a result, landlords are going to have to attract a wide
variety of tenants to keep their properties filled.
Need to moderate medium-term rental outlook. We expect prime Grade
A office rents to average ~$12.25 psf by end-2014 - an increase of 16.5%
YoY, led by bite-sized deals signed for smaller spaces, while the pre-
committed leases at the upcoming CapitaGreen and South Beach are
reportedly still under $10.00 psf. This should lead to a ~14% rise in the
overall CBD average rent to $10.50 psf in the same period.
Looking ahead, we estimate that prime Grade A rents can still rise by 5% in
2015 to $12.90 psf, due to the temporary supply squeeze, before
plateauing in 2016 and falling by ~8% per annum in 2017 and 2018 to
$10.90 psf as at end-2018, as the market absorbs the expected supply glut
from new prime Grade A developments.
The Grade B sub-segment in the CBD has been surprisingly resilient, but
we expect more companies to take advantage of the lower priced
decentralized locations to move into higher-spec buildings (e.g. Westgate
Tower), which should lead to greater downside pressure on rents at the
older Grade A or Grade B buildings within the CBD. We forecast overall
CBD rents remain flat at $10.50 psf in 2015, before falling by 10% per
annum to average at $7.65 psf by end-2018.
Source: www.marinaone.com.sg
Capital values likely to have peaked. Capital values for en-bloc office
space (i.e. not strata-titled) are likely to soften slightly in 2015, on
expectations of gently rising interest rates, partially supported by the mildly
positive short-term rental outlook. Nevertheless, we believe the market will
increasingly adopt a more cautious outlook from 2016 on the back of the
impending supply glut and progressively demand higher cap rates going
forward.
Size Matters in Retail
Retail sales growth challenging. Singapore is a world-renowned shopping
paradise, but recently, retailers have not been enjoying the best of times.
Since Feb this year, the Retail Sales Index (excluding motor vehicles) has
shown seven consecutive months of YoY declines at constant prices, before
stabilizing in Sep. This could partly be attributable to dimming optimism on
global economic recovery in general, which has resulted in subdued
consumer confidence.
Besides tepid consumer sentiment, retailers are also faced with two
challenges, namely coping with the ongoing manpower shortage, as well as
staying relevant in the face of e-commerce threat.
Fig 29: YoY change of Retail Sales Index by industry (at constant prices)
Retail landlords, on the other hand, cannot do without their F&B tenants.
F&B offerings have now become a major differentiating factor among malls,
so the landlords have to increasingly work closely with these tenants to
optimize their use of space and maximize revenue on a per square foot
basis. Eventually, struggling restaurants may have to come up with new
concepts or make way altogether for new entrants.
AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd Page 21
Singapore’s a laggard in e-commerce. While e-commerce as a global
phenomenon is not new, Singaporeans have been relatively slow in
embracing online shopping until more recently. A key reason was that brick-
and-mortar malls are easily accessible in Singapore, hence shoppers can
conveniently drop by their nearest mall either by car or public transportation
to touch and feel the wares (or wearables) before buying them on-the-spot.
Consumers in other countries may not have such luxury. Particularly for
people living in the suburbs or rural areas, e-shopping is the most hassle-
free method for them to purchase items which are not easily accessible to
them.
Local online fashion start-ups such as Zalora and Reebonz have been
gaining traction steadily. Online payment firm PayPal estimates that the
online shopping market here is set to quadruple from S$1.1b in 2010 to
S$4.4b in 2015.
Fig 30: Proportion of online shoppers in Singapore Fig 31: Online shoppers by age group, 2012
If you can’t beat them, join them. The segment of retailers most under
threat by e-commerce is likely to be fashion and apparel. We expect some
of the smaller labels to be squeezed out of the market, but large
international fast-fashion brands such as H&M and UNIQLO should continue
to perform well with their competitively-priced, high-quality merchandise.
We believe this underscores the point that size does matter, as these large
international retailers can reap economies of scale, such as tying up
strategically with third-party logistics providers and adopting multiple
platforms for marketing and customer communications.
AmFraser Securities Pte Ltd Page 22
For landlords, size matters too. Despite the general challenges faced by
retailers today, retail malls with the right tenant mix and shopping experience
will continue to play an integral role in Singaporean lifestyle. Therefore, a
successful landlord needs to have a strong and wide tenant network which
allows it to pick and choose the right tenants for its malls. This also enables
the landlord to minimize vacancy rates by having more alternatives.
Large and established retail landlords are likely to be the winners should
tenant attrition intensify, while smaller malls and strata-titled ones may
struggle. With a selection of well-located malls for both local and international
retailers to choose from, landlords like CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) and Frasers
Centrepoint may act as strategic partners to help retailers grow by offering
retailers more locations for their phased expansion. One example is the
popular dim-sum restaurant Tim Ho Wan, which first opened in Singapore in
CMA’s Plaza Singapura. Today, Tim Ho Wan has five outlets, three of which
are in CMA’s malls.
Chasing the tourist dollar. Based on JLL’s estimates, the average prime
retail rent along the prime shopping area stood at $37.99 psf as at 3Q14,
slightly higher than the $28.29 psf for prime space in suburban malls. With
the opening of Orchard Gateway and the reopening of Shaw Centre post-
refurbishment this year, the rejuvenation of Orchard Road is mostly
complete, with no more significant retail additions along the prime shopping
belt expected in the foreseeable future.
Orchard Road malls continue to attract top retailers and a gamut of F&B
offerings, catering to both locals and tourists. It is natural for many new-to-
market brands to open their first Singapore outlets in an Orchard Road mall.
The most recent case in point is Suitsupply from the Netherlands, which
opened a 5,500 sq ft store in ION Orchard in September.
Due to heavier reliance on the tourist dollar, Orchard Road retailers may
have been more impacted by the recent slowdown in visitor arrivals. As of
2Q14, Singapore’s overall visitor arrivals fell by 6% YoY, while tourism
receipts fell by 7% YoY. They were dragged down by the reduction in tourists
from China - a result of China’s tourism law implemented in Oct 2013, as well
as an avoidance of travel to the region following the MH370 incident.
Visitor Tourism
2014 Tourism
Arrival (% Receipts (%
Receipts (S$m)
Δ YoY) Δ YoY)
Hong Kong 12% 40% 15% 33% Hong Kong 279 16% 14%
USA 10% 43% 20% 27% USA 298 -2% -2%
Thailand 22% 41% 14% 23% Thailand 320 5% 2%
Philippines 18% 44% 15% 24%
Philippines 339 -2% -8%
Malaysia 29% 23% 10% 38%
Malaysia 426 -2% -2%
Suburban malls epitomise stability. 2014 will see the addition of about
1.1m sq ft of retail space in the suburbs, mainly from malls such as One KM,
The Seletar Mall and the refurbished Eastpoint Mall.
We think the upcoming space is certainly not excessive. Given the ongoing
push to develop regional hubs like Punggol and Jurong Lake District, retail
space in these areas will be instrumental in promoting that growth. Suburban
malls in close proximity to residential areas and transportation nodes cater
particularly to necessity shopping, which underpins their resilience and
stability. To improve tenant mix, landlords have also been introducing more
“affordable luxe” offerings which target the middle-income families.
Expecting more of the same. We expect the retail property segment to
remain resilient in the foreseeable future. We are forecasting Orchard Road
rents to experience mild pressure of -3%-0% in 2015 as the market
continues to adjust for the decline in spending by tourists from China, before
remaining flat in 2016.
As for suburban retail space, we expect rents to track inflation, with mild
growth of ~2% p.a. for 2015 and 2016 as their respective catchment areas
mature. We also expect the malls managed by established landlords to
outperform strata-titled ones which have no central management to control
tenant mix and quality.
Fig 34: Artist’s impression of the iconic Jewel @ Changi, with retail NLA of ~576,000 sq ft
Silver Linings Beyond Our Shores
Look for companies with first-mover advantage. Faced with rising land
costs at home and a lack of positive catalysts on many fronts, Singapore
developers have increasingly deployed their capital overseas, particularly in
China, Vietnam and Malaysia. CapitaLand and KepLand are already well-
established in China, each with ~20 years’ of presence. CapitaLand’s China
business spans across all its business segments, namely residential, retail
(under CapitaMalls Asia), serviced apartments and mixed developments
under the Raffles City brand. KepLand is mainly focused on residential
(including townships) and commercial developments.
For instance, on 30 Sep, the central bank eased mortgage rules for
homebuyers who have paid off existing loans. All but five of 46 cities that had
imposed HPR have removed or relaxed such limits in recent months.
Subsequently on 21 Nov, the PBoC added further stimulus by cutting its
benchmark rate by 40 bps to 5.6%. In one week, Chinese property stocks
(represented by the SHPROP Index) have risen by 12.1%, whereas
CapitaLand and KepLand have only risen by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively.
It’s not all about housing. CapitaLand’s retail mall business (under
CapitaMalls Asia) continues to enjoy growth in China, with 52 operational
malls by year-end and another ten under construction. CapitaLand is also
looking at increasing its portfolio of mixed-developments, such as the eight
Raffles Cities (four still under construction) it currently holds. Management
intends to leverage on its competitive advantage and has targeted to develop
another six new integrated developments there.
KepLand has also been building up its own commercial portfolio, with the
acquisition of Life Hub@Jinqiao Mall in Shanghai in Feb 2013, and
developing another 376,000 sqm of commercial GFA in Beijing, Shanghai
and Tianjin. In time, these properties will boost KepLand’s recurrent income
to mitigate earnings volatility from the residential business.
Fig 35: CapitaLand’s residential sales in China Fig 36: KepLand’s residential sales in China
Vietnam - the next turnaround story? The Vietnamese property market
has been in the doldrums for the most part of 2008 to 2013, plagued by high
interest rates used to combat high inflation and a devalued currency (the
VND devalued by >10% between 2010 and 2011). However, recent signs in
the market have been encouraging, suggesting that the property market
there may have already bottomed.
Company Notes
12-Month CAPL SP (Blue) vs. FSSTI Positioned to reap future rewards. Management has
8.90
set a target to achieve ROEs of 8-12%, which entails a
3900 long-term capital allocation of 25-35% into residential
7.90
3700 6.90 developments, and the rest into shopping malls, serviced
3500 5.90 residences and offices. We believe the new streamlined
4.90 structure and its sound balance sheet (net gearing of
3300
3.90
3100 0.6x, cash of S$2.6b) should allow the group to reach its
2.90
2900 1.90
target in a few years’ time.
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May-14
China pivot to pay off. Having been in China for around 20 years,
CapitaLand has built up a sizeable presence there with its various business
units, namely residential, retail (under CMA), serviced residences (under
The Ascott Limited) and integrated developments (mainly under the Raffles
City brand). Together with home market Singapore, China today is one of
CapitaLand’s key markets, accounting for 39% of its asset allocation.
Fig 40: CapitaLand’s competitive advantage in integrated and mixed-use projects
Source: Company
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Centrally-located quality commercial portfolio. CCT holds a portfolio of
ten quality commercial assets, offering ~3m sq ft of NLA. The properties are
all well-located within Singapore’s Central Business District, with occupancy
rates in excess of 95% (portfolio occupancy is a high of 99.4%).
CCT’s office properties have benefitted from the current tight supply, which
has allowed CCT’s average office rent to increase by 4.9% YoY to S$8.42
psf per month. CCT owns a 40% stake in CapitaGreen, which is a 700,000
sq ft prime Grade A office development set to complete by the year’s end.
Currently, ~40% of the space has been committed at estimated rents of
~S$9.50 psf per month.
Source: Company
Source: Company
Proactive landlord. With the exception of 2011, CCT has been able to
maintain DPU growth despite having divested two properties, namely
Robinson Point and StarHub Centre. Meanwhile, the manager is proactive
in trying to improve yields at some of its properties, such as the S$85.8m
phased AEI at Six Battery Road and the ongoing S$40m AEI at Capital
Tower. Its latest development, CapitaGreen, is also a redevelopment of its
old property Market Street Car Park, allowing CCT to beef up its overall
prime Grade A exposure.
Fig 45: CCT’s office lease renewal profile - manageable proportion in 2016/17
Source: Company
Conservative balance sheet. CCT has a relatively low gearing of just
30.2%, with an average term to maturity of 4.0 years. 80% of the borrowings
are on fixed rates, providing ample buffer against future increases in interest
rates. Assuming 40% gearing, CCT has debt headroom of S$1.2b for new
acquisitions.
One reason for the conservative balance sheet is to keep its powder dry to
eventually acquire the remaining stake in CapitaGreen. As part of the deal
for the redevelopment of Market Street Car Park, CCT’s JV partners for
CapitaGreen, CapitaLand (50%) and Mitsubishi Estate (10%), have granted
CCT a call option for the 60% CCT does not own, with the purchase price
pegged to market valuation, but subject to a minimum of development cost
compounded at 6.3% p.a. The call option is valid for three years, beginning
from the time the property is completed (end-2014). We estimate that CCT’s
current debt headroom is likely to be sufficient to fully fund the acquisition
without the need for an equity fund raising.
Source: Company
Valuation
Trading at fair value. Using the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), we derive
a target price of S$1.76. We have assumed (i) a risk-free rate of 2.70%; (ii)
a market risk premium of 5.5%; (iii) beta of 0.75; and (iv) a terminal growth
rate of 1.0%. We believe the terminal growth rate is reasonable, taking into
account the potential impact of future supply and the REIT manager’s track
record.
Fig 48: DDM’s sensitivity to terminal growth rate and cost of equity
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Well-located and resilient portfolio. As Singapore’s largest REIT by
market capitalization and asset size, CMT holds a portfolio of 16 assets
across Singapore, with a total NLA of 5.6m sq ft. All its properties are
strategically-located near transport nodes and cater to sizeable population
catchments. In addition, since many of the malls are located in the suburban
areas, nearly three-quarters of the portfolio caters to necessity shopping,
which has proven to be resilient throughout economic cycles.
Source: Company
Source: Company
Solid track record speaks for itself. With eleven years of listing history,
CMT can be proud of its stellar record of consistent DPU growth. This has
been largely attained through active tenant and lease management to drive
positive rental reversions, innovative optimization of space usage through
AEIs to drive value creation, and making astute acquisitions along the way
(e.g. The Atrium@Orchard and Bugis+).
While managing such a big asset portfolio, CMT’s capital management has
been exemplary. Gearing is a at comfortable 34.1%. Even though the
average cost of debt is higher than its peers at 3.6%, that is largely due to
its long average term of maturity of 4.7 years, with CMT being one of the
very few S-REITs that has issued bonds with tenure as long as ten years.
As much as 99.7% of its borrowings are on fixed rates, underpinning DPU
stability when interest rates eventually rise.
Source: Company
Valuation
Fairly attractive for stable yields. Using the Dividend Discount Model
(DDM), we arrive at a target price of S$2.23. We have assumed (i) a risk-
free rate of 2.70%; (ii) a market risk premium of 5.5%; (iii) beta of 0.75; and
(iv) a terminal growth rate of 1.5%.
Fig 54: DDM’s sensitivity to terminal growth rate and cost of equity
Jul-14
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
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May-13
May-14
discount to RNAV.
Source: Bloomberg
Slimmer pickings on the horizon. CDL has been one of the major
beneficiaries of the robust demand for residential property during the pre-
TDSR days (i.e. before Jun 2013). Strong execution and attractive price
points especially for projects launched from its legacy landbank in
Tampines and Pasir Ris allowed CDL to capture a good part of the market
share in those years, and still benefit from healthy margins (>20% pre-tax).
However, its high exposure to the same residential sector may pose more
of a stock overhang than anything else going forward. While the group will
continue to recognize earnings from its successful launches in the past,
projects launched after mid-2013 have been impacted by the TDSR.
For example, The Venue Residences at Tai Thong Crescent has achieved
a sell-through rate of just 28% so far, despite having been launched more
than a year ago. Similarly, the 845-unit Commonwealth Towers was
launched in May 2014, but has achieved ~33% sales to-date. Dragged
down by the slow sales, we can also expect margin compression of the
more recently acquired sites to ~18%. Based on our sensitivity analysis, we
estimate that CDL’s RNAV would be negatively impacted by 3.6% if
Singapore residential ASPs fall by 20% from current levels.
Efforts to diversify would take time. Recognising the need to reduce
reliance on the Singapore residential sector, CDL has embarked on a
diversification trail, although belatedly in comparison with its peers.
Leveraging on ground knowledge from its hotel operations via Millennium &
Copthorne, CDL has acquired six freehold sites in Greater London over the
past 15 months at a cost of £157m. Despite recent signs of cooling in the
market, CDL is still keen to explore more opportunities in the UK and avoid
over-paying for acquisitions. For now, we value the UK investments at cost
in the absence of planning details.
Valuations are not cheap. CDL is trading at a mere 20% discount to our
RNAV, much richer than the peer average discount of 35%. Despite strong
execution and a sound balance sheet, we believe the premium valuations
are no longer justified given the headwinds in the Singapore residential
market. Initiate with HOLD, with a TP of S$9.40, pegged to a 25% discount
to RNAV in line with its peers.
Good proxy to regional growth markets. With three ongoing residential
launches in Singapore, KepLand’s Singapore residential inventory is fairly
manageable. Outside of Singapore, KepLand has an established track
record of developing properties in regional growth markets, and in
particular, China, Vietnam and Indonesia. KepLand is also renowned for its
expertise in township developments, providing high-quality and affordably-
priced housing to the masses.
The recent signs of a turnaround in Vietnam will also be positive for the
group. KepLand is one of the most established foreign developers in
Vietnam with a landbank of ~20,000 units with a GFA of ~2.8m sqm.
Source: Company
Fig 58: KepLand’s asset allocation as at Sep-2014
Source: Company
Fig 61: KepLand’s RNAV breakdown
Jul-14
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
May-13
May-14
Source: Bloomberg
A commercial portfolio worthy of envy. UOL has a rather sizeable
portfolio of commercial properties for a non-REIT. The combined attributable
office NLA from Faber House, Odeon Towers, United Square and Novena
Square is 886,702 sq ft. While these properties are neither International
Grade A office buildings, nor are they located in the traditional financial
districts of Raffles Place or Marina Bay, they continue to enjoy high
occupancy rates of 95% or more.
Its hotel arm, Pan Pacific Hotels Group (PPHG), owns and/or manages 33
hotels, resorts and serviced suites, mainly under the Pan Pacific and
PARKROYAL brands. Its hospitality assets in Singapore include the 367-
room Parkroyal on Upper Pickering and the 126-unit Pan Pacific Serviced
Suites Orchard.
Fig 63: Property investment and hotel ops make up ~60% of adjusted EBITDA annually
What’s next for UIC? UOL’s 43.9% associate, UIC, privatized Singapore
Land Limited (SingLand) in Aug 2014. SingLand was arguably the prized
possession and UIC now has nearly full control (99.5%) of SingLand. Even
though UIC/SingLand’s office properties are not as modern as Asia Square
Towers 1 and 2, or Marina Bay Financial Centre, they are still centrally
located in prime locations like Raffles Place and Shenton Way.
The next step for UOL would naturally be to attempt to privatize UIC too.
However, this is less straightforward as UOL owns 43.9% of UIC, while Mr
John Gokongwei (UIC’s Deputy Chairman and founder of JG Summit
Holdings) controls another 37.0% via Telegraph Developments Ltd. Both
parties have been independently inching up on their stakes. In addition,
another potential stumbling block is that valuations for UIC are not
particularly cheap at this point at 0.9x P/B and P/RNAV, whereas SingLand
was privatized at 0.75x P/B and P/RNAV.
Fig 65: UOL’s RNAV breakdown
Jul-14
Jan-13
Mar-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
May-13
May-14
Source: Bloomberg
Prized landbank going for a song? Renowned for its high-end residential
developments, Wing Tai has been cautiously managing its Singapore
residential landbank since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Currently, its
landbank comprises two luxury projects in the prestigious Ardmore Park
area, namely the 43-unit Le Nouvel Ardmore and the 156-unit Nouvel 18,
which is a JV with CDL. It also has two other ongoing mid-end launches,
namely The Crest at Prince Charles Crescent, and the substantially-sold
Tembusu near Kovan MRT Station.
Sales of the first three projects have been affected by government policies.
Both Ardmore Park sites predominantly cater to demand from wealthy
foreigners, who have since been put off by the 15% ABSD. The Crest was
launched in June this year, but demand has been crimped with prospective
buyers hampered by the TDSR requirements.
Despite the challenges it faces, we believe the stock market has been overly
punitive on Wing Tai’s share price. The implied value of Wing Tai’s landbank
based on the current share price is estimated at just S$1,510 psf (on a
Gross Development Basis), suggesting that prime Ardmore Park properties
are going for a song. Therefore, in our view, the stock offers tremendous
value, unless one is actually able to buy physical properties in Ardmore Park
at S$1,500 psf.
Fig 67: EV analysis - share price implied value of Wing Tai’s landbank
Deep value waiting to be realized. We have a target price of S$2.30,
pegged to a 35% discount to RNAV, which is steeper than the discount we
ascribe to the big-cap developers. Our ASP assumptions for Le Nouvel
Ardmore and Nouvel 18 are $4,000 psf and $3,000 psf respectively, which
we think are fairly conservative despite the current state of the high-end
segment. In addition, Wing Tai has a strong balance sheet with S$860m and
a net gearing of just 0.15x, putting it in good stead to ride through the lean
years and make acquisitions if land prices fall significantly enough in the
future.
Trading at a steep 55% discount to book and 51% discount to our RNAV of
$3.54, we believe valuations are very compelling. Initiate with a BUY
recommendation.
Appendices
Appendix A: Timeline of Singapore property cooling measures
Appendix B: Historical P/B trends of Singapore property developer stocks
Fig 69: CapitaLand’s historical P/B trend Fig 70: KepLand’s historical P/B trend
Fig 71: CDL’s historical P/B trend Fig 72: UOL’s historical P/B trend
Source: Bloomberg
Appendix C: S-REIT Peer Comparison Table
Last Market Cons/AMF DPU Leverage
Yield (%)
Price Cap Distribution (cents) ratio Price-to-
Frequency Current Current book (x)
(S$) (S$ m) Next FY Next FY (%)
FY FY
Office S$15,689 5.4 5.6 35.7 0.93
CapitaCommercial Trust 1.685 4,962 Semi-Anl 8.7 9.1 5.2 5.4 29.4 0.99
Frasers Commercial Trust 1.470 998 Quarter 9.9 10.0 6.7 6.8 36.8 0.91
Keppel REIT 1.240 3,730 Quarter 7.7 7.2 6.2 5.8 39.6 0.89
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust 1.970 4,929 Quarter 9.2 10.1 4.7 5.1 38.0 0.92
OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment
Trust 0.800 696 Semi-Anl N.A 5.4 N.A 6.8 41.9 0.75
IREIT Global 0.890 373 Semi-Anl N.A 6.8 N.A 7.6 33.2 1.14
Retail S$35,285 5.7 5.9 33.2 0.92
CapitaRetail China Trust 1.595 1,321 Semi-Anl 10.2 11.0 6.4 6.9 32.6 1.08
CapitaMall Trust 1.980 6,855 Quarter 10.9 11.6 5.5 5.9 35.5 1.14
Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust 7.690 14,404 Semi-Anl 41.7 43.6 5.4 5.7 32.4 0.69
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.895 1,735 Quarter 11.6 11.7 6.1 6.2 29.3 1.0
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 0.370 912 Quarter 2.9 3.0 7.8 8.1 34.0 0.90
Mapletree Commercial Trust 1.415 2,971 Quarter 7.9 8.1 5.6 5.7 38.6 1.22
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust 0.985 2,673 Semi-Anl 6.2 6.7 6.3 6.8 38.0 0.93
SPH REIT 1.060 2,669 Quarter 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 25.8 1.13
Starhill Global REIT 0.810 1,744 Quarter 5.0 5.1 6.2 6.3 28.7 0.88
Healthcare S$2,329 5.7 5.8 32.5 1.38
First Real Estate Investment Trust 1.240 907 Quarter 8.1 8.4 6.5 6.8 31.9 1.28
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust 2.350 1,422 Quarter 12.0 12.0 5.1 5.1 32.8 1.44
Hospitality S$7,094 6.7 7.0 32.0 0.94
Ascott Residence Trust 1.275 1,957 Semi-Anl 8.2 8.7 6.4 6.8 33.6 0.93
Ascendas Hospitality Trust 0.690 767 Semi-Anl 5.3 5.6 7.7 8.1 35.6 0.90
OUE Hospitality Trust 0.905 1,196 Quarter 6.7 6.8 7.4 7.5 31.7 0.98
Far East Hospitality Trust 0.830 1,473 Quarter 5.2 5.4 6.3 6.5 30.8 0.83
CDL Hospitality Trusts 1.735 1,701 Semi-Anl 11.0 11.5 6.3 6.6 29.6 1.06
Industrial S$15,608 6.8 7.0 31.5 1.15
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT 1.450 903 Quarter 11.0 11.0 7.6 7.6 31.5 0.99
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust 2.340 5,626 Semi-Anl 14.9 15.4 6.4 6.6 29.6 1.16
Cache Logistics Trust 1.175 917 Quarter 8.8 9.1 7.5 7.7 28.8 1.20
Cambridge Industrial Trust 0.690 872 Quarter 5.0 5.2 7.2 7.5 28.1 0.99
Mapletree Industrial Trust 1.505 2,583 Quarter 10.0 10.1 6.6 6.7 34.4 1.25
Mapletree Logistics Trust 1.180 2,913 Quarter 7.7 7.8 6.5 6.6 33.1 1.21
Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial Real
Estate Investment Trust 0.965 677 Quarter 7.6 7.8 7.9 8.1 36.2 0.88
Soilbuild Business Space REIT 0.790 642 Quarter 6.2 6.3 7.8 8.0 28.8 0.98
Viva Industrial Trust 0.790 474 Quarter 7.0 7.0 8.9 8.9 38.1 1.05
Residential S$252 6.2 7.0 36.5 1.36
Saizen REIT 0.890 252 Semi-Anl 5.5 6.2 6.2 7.0 36.5 1.36
32 S-REITs S$76,257 5.9 6.2 33.22 0.98
MASB10Y Index Monetary Authority of Singapore 2.2
Yield Spread 3.7 4.0
Source: Bloomberg, AmFraser estimates
AmFraser Research recommendations are based on a Total Return rating system, defined as follows:
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