Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Contents
Sr. No. Title Page No.
1. Indian Agrochemical Industry
• Introduction 3
• Types of Agrochemicals 4
• Competitive landscape 6
• Understanding Value chain of Industry 6
• Regulation of Agrochemicals in India: 8
• Factors impacting Agrochemicals Industry 10
• Major Risks and Challenges 12
• Porters Five Force Analysis 15
2. Company Analysis
• Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. 16
• Insecticide India Ltd. 27
• Rallis India Ltd. 41
• PI Industries Ltd. 52
• Bharat Rasayan Ltd. 69
• Excel Crop Care Ltd. 79
• UPL 89
3. Scuttlebutt 101
2 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Introduction:
Since time immemorial, agriculture continues to remain the backbone of Indian
economy. Although, over the last two decades the overall contribution of agriculture
sector towards the GDP growth of the country has decreased still agriculture continues
to play a pivotal role in Indian economy with more than 50% of India’s population is
dependent on the sector for their livelihood. In India, agricultural produce contributes
about sixteen percent (16%) of total GDP and ten percent (10%) of total exports.
The primary objective of the agriculture sector is to produce reliable supply of food for
the ever increasing world population. Paramount importance must be given to expedite
the agricultural productivity in order to feed the burgeoning world population.
Agrochemicals commonly referred to as pesticides, have been introduced in agriculture
for efficient and economical production of agricultural products. They are used to
control weeds, insect infestation and various diseases thereby increasing agricultural
productivity. It is estimated that about 15%-25% of potential crop production is lost due
to pests, weeds and diseases thus the usage of pesticides play a vital role in enhancing
productivity.
Market Size:
India is the fourth largest global producer of agrochemicals after the US, Japan and
China with a market size of $ 4.4 billion in FY15 and is expected to grow at 7.5% per
annum to reach USD 6.3 billion by FY20. The market is evenly divided between
domestic consumption and exports. The domestic demand is expected to grow at 6.5%
per annum and exports at 9% per annum.
3.15
2.05
3.14
2.3
3 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Types of Agrochemicals:
The agrochemicals can be broadly classified into five types: -
Insecticides ➢ Insecticides provide protection to the crops from the insects by
either killing them or by preventing their attack. They help in
controlling the pest population and maintain it below a desired
threshold level. They can be further classified based on their
mode of action:
a. Contact insecticides: These kill insects on direct contact and
leave no residual activity, hence causing minimal
environmental damage.
b. Systemic insecticides: These are absorbed by the plant tissues
and destroy insects when they feed on the plant. These are
usually associated with long term residual activity.
Fungicides ➢ Fungicides protect the crops from the attack of fungi and can be
of two types – protectants and eradicates. Protectants prevent
or inhibit fungal growth and eradicates kill the pests on
application.
➢ This in turn improves productivity, reduces blemishes on crop
(thus enhancing market value of the crop) and improves storage
life and quality of harvested crop.
Herbicides ➢ Herbicides: Herbicides also called as weedicides are used to kill
undesirable plants. They can be of two types - selective and
non-selective.
➢ Selective herbicides kill specific plants, leaving the desired crop
unharmed, while non-selective herbicides are used for
widespread clearance of ground and are used to control weeds
before crop planting.
Bio- ➢ Bio-pesticides are new age crop protection products
pesticides manufactured from natural substances like plants, animals,
bacteria and certain minerals.
➢ They are eco-friendly, easy to use; require lower dosage
amounts for same performance as compared to chemical-based
pesticides.
➢ The bio-pesticides category currently is a small proportion of
the market but has a huge growth potential considering its non-
toxic nature.
Others ➢ Fumigants and Rodenticides are the chemicals which protect
the crops from pest attacks during crop storage.
Source: Analysis by Tata Strategic
4 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Herbicides
Insecticides 16%
60%
Bio-pesticides
Others 3%
3%
Source: Analysis by Tata Strategic
5 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Competitive Landscape
The Indian agrochemicals market is highly fragmented in nature with over 800
formulators. The organized sector dominates the market with 70% market share while
the rest belongs to the spurious unorganized market. The market has been witnessing a
flurry of M&A activities with large players consolidating their market position buying
out small manufacturers.
The market share of large players depends primarily on product portfolio and
introduction of new molecules. Strategic alliances with competitors are common to
reduce risks and serve a wider customer base.
Market share of top players
Major Players 2005 % 2017 % %change over FY05-FY17
Rallis India 591 10.8% 1400 5.5% -5.3%
Sharda Crop Chem 30 0.6% 1129 4.4% 3.8%
PI industries 271 5.0% 867 3.4% -1.6%
Insecticides 90.3 1.7% 1107 4.3% 2.6%
Excel crop care 381 7.0% 963 3.7% -3.3%
Dhanuka Agritech 61.5 1.1% 873 3.4% 2.3%
Bayer Crop science 668 12.2% 2802 11.1% -1.1%
UPL 1356 24.9% 16312 64% 33.9%
Total 5454 25453
(Note- figures represent only agrochemical sales segment of companies)
Source: annual report
6 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Chemicals are the major raw material required for the manufacturing of technical - a
highly capital and technology intensive business. Domestic technical manufacturers face
intense competition from their Chinese counterparts who thrive on high economies of
scale.
The domestic formulation players procure major portion of technicals through imports
from international players. Some of the large formulation firms have undergone
backward integration which has rendered them a certain degree of self-sufficiency and
control on quality. There are close to 125 technical grade manufacturers, about 800
formulators and more than 145,000 distributors involved in the chain.
Over the last few years, the global agrochemical industry has been on a massive
consolidation spree with the top 6 companies merging to form three global giants. This
development has resulted in rising entry barriers as high levels of R&D expenses are
required for introducing and selling new products and services.
These global giants have continued to remain the prime innovators in the industry as
they possess enormous financial muscle which they utilize in enhancing R&D
capabilities with the aim of reaping rewards in the form of patent protection. Releasing a
new product in the market has become increasingly cumbersome in terms of time and
finances. It takes roughly 11 years for a product to enter the market beginning from R &
D of the novel active ingredient, at an average cost of $ 286 million. This has become a
major impediment in development of new products which is quite evident from the fact
that only a few registrations or launches of active ingredients occurred in 2017.
Custom synthesis business (CSM) is quite a lucrative business segment for the
agrochemical entities under which the company secures long term export contract from
international formulation players. The CSM business for the global companies is
currently limited to few big players like Lonza, AG, Saltigo etc. These companies extend
their services beyond the agrochemical space to pharma intermediaries, fine chemicals,
preservatives and other specialty chemicals.
Agrochemicals can also be classified into
(i) Generic (non-patented) and
(ii) Specialty (patented) products.
7 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
8 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Section 9(3) of the Act provides the process of first time registration of an insecticide by
the first applicant (hereinafter “the Originator”). An applicant wanting to register a new
product ‘first time’ in India is required to generate data to demonstrate its ‘safety’ and
‘efficacy’ in Indian conditions (costing millions of rupees) in addition to hundreds of
million dollars spent globally on toxicity and chemistry studies. The registration process
mandates the submission of efficacy and safety data by the Originator.
However, under Section 9(4) where an insecticide has already been registered by the
Originator and another person (hereinafter “the Subsequent Applicant”) wishes to
import or manufacture that insecticide in India, the Subsequent Applicant is required to
provide only bioequivalence data to the relevant Authority. i.e.; subsequent applicants
can get registration under Section 9(4) for same product on payment of nominal fee
‘without having to submit any data’. As a result, for every registration under Section
9(3), there are multiple registrations under Section 9(4).
Innovator grants license for Indian entity buys samples of the product
the product to an Indian from the innovator or any other supplier
company or launches through (Chinese manufacturers sell generic
its Indian arm (In-licensing) & version of the technical post patent expiry,
Co-Marketing with Indian but Indian Players are also getting active in
Company. reverse engineering of expired patent)
9 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Many non-serious players made in-roads into Indian Pesticides market through 9(4)
registrations and spurious products which accounted for around 40% of domestic
market in 2014 inflicting huge crop losses and damage to the soil. On the other hand,
Innovator companies were not able to recoup Investments made in India for conducting
studies.
CIB’s intent to enforce stricter norms
In FY08, the agrochemical regulatory body laid down guidelines which allowed players
to register imported formulations of innovative products without registering its
technical. This is because in the absence of registration of underlying technical,
imported formulation cannot be copied.
However, The Gujarat High Court has instructed the Central Insecticide Board (CIB) to
frame guidelines for time-bound registrations of technicals (with formulations
registered) which have not been registered even after expiry of their exclusivity period.
Non-registration of technicals has prevented competition (generics) from entering a
molecule even after expiry of its exclusivity period (generally 3 years), thus enabling
incumbents/innovators to enjoy higher margins for extended periods.
Assuming the exclusivity period is restricted to three years again, this move could also
hurt IRRs of new launches. India being mostly into generic manufacturing, this move
will be beneficial for major domestic players while companies selling 9(3) formulation
products in tie-ups with MNCs can have negative impact as there technical will soon be
reengineered by other companies affecting high margins earned due to exclusivity
advantage.
10 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ In order to sustain the growing demand for food grains either the arable land
should be increased or the productivity of the existing land should be improved.
As the arable land is limited, increasing productivity is the only option available.
This can only be achieved through usage of high yielding seeds, fertilizers and
pesticides.
11 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
6. Increasing pest attacks: In India, more than 40,000 different types of insects
have been recorded and of these about 1,000 have been listed as potential pests
for economic plants. 500 pests have caused serious damage to agricultural output
at some point in time and 70 others have been causing damage more often.
Therefore, pesticides have been recognized as an essential tool in India to
increase agricultural production by preventing crop losses before and after
harvesting.
12 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Unseasonal rains can also have a detrimental impact on the crop schedules or
may cause mass destruction and spoilage of crops.
➢ According to weather agency ‘Skymet’, India is most likely to witness normal
annual Monsoon rains from June to September (CY18) which will augur well for
agrochemical Industry.
➢ Also, the El Nino effects, which led to abnormally less rainfall over the last 2-3
years, are gradually fading in India and paving way for La Nina, which would be
induce more rainfall over the coming year thereby increasing farm production.
2. Seasonal Demand: The agriculture sector is the major demand driver for
pesticides. As the crops are mainly sown in two cropping seasons, namely Kharif
(July-November) and Rabi (October-February), the demand for pesticides is
seasonal with a skew towards Kharif crops which account for 70% of annual
pesticide consumption.
➢ The industry has to extend long credit period due to intense competition amongst
the incumbents. Pesticides are the last input in the agricultural process, hence
farmers are left with little surplus money (after having invested in seeds and
fertilizers) left for purchasing pesticides, therefore the incumbents have to extend
long credit period to stimulate the demand.
Farming
Ploughing Sowing
of land seeds
and Fertilizers Pesticides
Irrigation
13 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
The main point of contact between the farmers and the manufacturers are the
retailers who don't have adequate technical expertise and are thus unable to
impart proper product understanding to the farmers. It is also very difficult for
the farmers to convey their needs effectively to the manufacturers.
➢ The global innovators are outsourcing part of their R&D to countries like India
in a bid to reduce their research cost. Indian companies such as PI Industries
have already started catering to the niche demand as they have abundant
supply of low cost high quality manpower.
BARGAINING Few suppliers control the entire market hence the MEDIUM-HIGH
POWER OF market power is concentrated. There is an BARGAINING
SUPPLIERS additional risk of forward integration by these POWER
global giants.
15 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
16 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
The Company has a pan-India presence through its marketing offices in all major states
in India, with a network of more than 7,000 distributors/ dealers selling to over 75,000
retailers across India and reaching out to more than 10 million farmers. With more than
200 registrations and 500 active SKUs, the company has one of the largest market
penetrations. Dhanuka Agritech currently has 30 Branch offices across India and 48
warehouses. Such Extensive Distribution System makes Dhanuka the preferred partner
of global innovators (highest tie-ups compare to peers) to venture into rapidly growing
Indian Agrochemical Industry.
Product Portfolio
One of the key attribute to generate higher margins in Industry is to launch new
products continuously. Dhanuka has successfully launched 20-25 products in last five
years and continue to maintain policy of launching 4-5 new products annually. Out of
the five new products, company generally launches two 9(3) products (specialty
products having three years of exclusivity) and 2-3 generic products every year. In fact,
company launched 11 products in FY18 as against 4-5 products generally launched by
company. Out of 11 products, one is in-house 9(3) product- Foster and another is D-
ONE product for cotton in-licensed from Dow Agro-sciences.
Increasing volume of 9(3) products is relatively difficult as they are the new products for
which company needs to educate farmers about their benefits and invest in marketing &
promotion to increase sales volume while 9(4) products volumes can be easily ramped
up. Since, margins on 9(3) products are high due to exclusivity period, successfully
scaling up of specialty (branded) products will give edge to company in long run.
Company has high expectation from below Registered/ Launched products.
Year Products Category Innovator/ Tie-up Crop
FY13 Lustre Fungicide E.I. Dupont USA Groundnut, onion, chilly, Paddy
FY15 Sempra Herbicides Nissan Chemicals, Japan Sugarcane, maize
FY15 Mortar Insecticide In-house R&D Paddy, vegetables
FY15 Sakura Herbicide Nissan Chemicals, Japan Multiple crop
FY16 Cover Insecticide Dupont Multiple crop
FY17 Conika Fungicide Hokko Chemicals, Japan Horticulture crops
FY17 Maxx-soy Herbicides Nissan Chemicals,Japan Soya bean
17 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Dhanuka was the first company to bring a Dupont molecule into India (1992) and since
then has continued its tie-up with the MNC despite the latter’s direct entry in the
country. The strong relationship along with its distribution strength has helped launch
multiple DuPont products like Lustre, Hi-Dice, Dunet, Hook.
Most recently, it launched Dupont’s highest selling molecule Rynaxypyr (Coragen)
having market size of around 500 Crore under the brand name “Cover” - which
according to management is one of the top three products of company, Targa Super- one
of the company’s most successful product along with cover liquid (sold only by Dhanuka
along with DuPont) and cover granules are the top three performing products of the
company.
Targa Super was the only largest-selling innovative product for Dhanuka till Fy13.
However, it has launched Lustre, Cover, Sempra, Mortar, Sakura, Conika, Maxx-soy
under 9(3) over FY13-18. The company is also expected to launch two new products that
is rice herbicide (DAL will third player), rice Insecticide and grapes fungicide in FY19
under 9(3).
Advertisement and Promotion
Dhanuka Agritech has been successful in creating extensive distribution channel and
brand value of their products which has helped company to gain some market share in
last few years. However, to sustain in competitive agrochemical Industry, the company
must continuously invest in marketing and promotion of their products to create
awareness about the benefits of pesticides. Company has hired veteran bollywood actor
Mr. Amitabh Bachchan as the Brand Ambassador. This move has enhanced company’s
brand recognition and visibility among farmers
For a pesticides industry, it is very important to use the right product coupled with right
quantity at the right time. For this, the company conducts literacy programmes for
farmers, by giving product demonstrations and providing technical advice on correct use
of technology and about specific crop related problems.
Marketing team (company call them Dhanuka Doctors currently having around 1500
personnel’s) visits villages and help farmers solve their problems. They also provide
them with product literatures, product samples, demo kits etc. to provide on the spot
solutions. The Company also conducts classroom and field training for safety and new
products.
18 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
35 4.30%
3.70% 3.60%
30 3.16%
25
3.82% 3.56%
Rs. Cr. 20 3.65%
15
10
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Ad & Sales Promotion Spend 18 20 21 32 29 30 28
➢ Company made buyback of 9.41 lakh shares for Rs 80 Cr. in March’17. The
bought back shares constituted 1.88% of the pre-buyback paid-up capital of the
company. The buyback was made from all the existing shareholders of the
company on a proportionate basis under the tender offer route.
19 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Mr. Ram Chairman Mr. Ram Gopal Agarwal started pesticides business more
Gopal than 40 years ago; a philanthropist; he also served for two
Agarwal terms as Chairman of “Crop Care Federation of India”.
Mr. Managing Mr. Mahendra Kumar Dhanuka co-founded the Company
Mahendra Director and has 40 years of experience. He is a President of HPMA
Kumar (Haryana Pesticide Manufacturers Association) for over a
Dhanuka decade. He oversees the overall operations of the Company.
Mr. Arun Executive Mr. A. K. Dhanuka; Director (Works), looks after
Kumar Director manufacturing operations at Gurgaon factory. He joined
Dhanuka the Company after completing his graduation and has been
looking after production since then.
Mr. Rahul Executive Mr. Rahul Dhanuka; Director (Marketing), Master’s in
Dhanuka Director business administration from S.P. Jain, Mumbai; oversees
the entire marketing function of the Company.
Mr. Mridul Executive Mr. Mridul Dhanuka; Director (Operations), master’s in
Dhanuka Director business administration from NITIE, Mumbai; oversees the
manufacturing and supply chain functions across the
Company’s four production facilities; spear-heads
expansion projects; brought technological and managerial
excellence in the company’s operations
Mr. Priya Independent Mr. Priya Brat, M.Sc (Hons) in Physics, Fellow Member of
Brat Director Indian Institute of Bankers, had a distinguished career in
State Bank of India and headed various important
assignments related to Industrial Credit, Forex
Management, Project Appraisal, Loan Syndication and
Merchant Banking.
Mr. Vinod Independent Mr. Vinod Jain, aged 64 years, is a Commerce Graduate
Kumar Jain Director from Delhi University and has a rich and multi- faceted
experience of 40 years. With his innovative ideas and skills,
he has taken his business of cotton yarn to new heights. He
is also Secretary of Cotton Yarn Merchant Association.
Mr. Indresh Independent Mr. Indresh Narain, aged 69 years, has a rich experience in
Narain Director Banking and retired as Head of Compliance and Legal
Department, HSBC Group.
Mrs. Asha Independent Mrs. Asha Mundra, a graduate from Miranda House
Mundra Director College, Delhi is an Executive Director in M/s Anupriya
Marketing Limited, which is involved in marketing of
interior and panel products.
Mr. Om Independent Mr. Om Prakash Khetan, a postgraduate from IIT,
Prakash Director Kharagpur (M. Tech degree) and IIM, Kolkata (MDP) and
Khetan completed his training in USA and UK. He has over 30
years of experience in Industrial Relations/Human
Resources.
Source: annual reports
20 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Financial Analysis
Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. has grown its Revenue at a CAGR of 10% from last 8 years.
Company clocks around 75% of revenue from specialty products and 25% from generic
segment.
Net Sales
1200
962
1000 873
785 829
800 738
INR Cr.
582
600 491 529
400
200
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
21 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Fungicides, 15%
Insecticides, 44%
Herbicides, 30%
22 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Year / Rs Cr. FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Expenditure
Cost of Raw Material Consumed 65.4% 60.3% 60.1% 66.0% 54.2% 49.4% 51.6% 40.3%
Purchase of Traded Goods 6.2% 4.9% 5.5% 4.4% 5.6% 12.5% 12.8% 11.5%
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory -5.2% -0.5% -0.2% -7.2% 2.9% -0.9% -7.3% 6.7%
Employees Benefit Expenses 7.2% 7.9% 8.2% 7.9% 8.2% 9.9% 11.2% 11.1%
Other Expenses 11.0% 12.4% 12.3% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.3% 13.2%
Total Operating Expenditure 84.5% 85.0% 85.9% 83.7% 83.2% 83.1% 80.6% 82.7%
Gross Profit 33.6% 35.3% 34.6% 36.8% 37.3% 39.0% 42.9% 41.6%
Operating Profit / EBITDA 15.5% 15.0% 14.1% 16.3% 16.8% 16.9% 19.4% 17.3%
Other Income 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7%
Depreciation 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 1.5%
Profit Before Interest & Tax (PBIT) 15.0% 14.3% 14.5% 16.3% 16.8% 17.7% 19.4% 17.5%
Interest/Finance Costs 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Profit Before Tax 13.7% 13.2% 13.9% 15.8% 16.5% 17.5% 19.3% 17.4%
Current Tax 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 4.2%
Other Taxes 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0%
Profit After Tax 10.4% 10.8% 11.1% 12.6% 13.5% 12.9% 13.7% 13.1%
Source: annual reports
➢ Gross profit has been increasing gradually because of good monsoon in
FY14.However, margins could have been better but sudden depreciation of rupee
in FY14 impacted the company’s margins as company import raw material from
china and innovator companies.
• Despite poor monsoon, the company was able to manage decent margins
because of better product mix, price hike in stocked inventory due to
increase in RM and some excise refunds.
• Dhanuka imports its raw material on fixed contracts which are determined
with the innovator company at the beginning of the year.
• Company usually passes any price hike due to increase in raw material
prices or rupee depreciation to customers thus maintaining healthy gross
margins. However, price reduction in some specialty products due to high
competition intensity, rising RM costs and product mix led to margin
contraction in FY18.
23 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Operating profit has been increasing in tandem with gross profits as any
incremental benefit at top level will usually flow to bottom level given asset light
model of company.
Balance Sheet Strength
➢ Dhanuka Agritech has equity of Rs 9.82 Cr. divided in 4.91 Cr. shares of Rs 2
each. The net worth stands at Rs 519.86 Cr. as on March’17.
➢ Company is debt free and holds Rs 4.34 Cr. in cash & 64.17 Cr. in Investments.
Company recently has shut down plant in Gurgaon (Haryana) and it is estimated
that the value of land is around 100 Cr.
➢ The ROE and ROCE are 25% and 36.12% for FY17.
➢ Asset light model helps company to earn high ROCE but because of Industry
nature, they are required to have high working capital needs.
➢ Working capital cycle of Dhanuka is close to Industry cycle of around 120 days
since pesticides are last input in agriculture process; it becomes increasingly
important for company to provide good credit terms.
➢ Inventory availability is equally important considering the intense competition
and presence of spurious products in markets.
Adverse currency movement: 25% of raw material costs are imported for Dhanuka
Agritech ltd. Hence, any sharp INR movement could impact the company’s earnings
adversely.
Increase in crude oil prices: Since the pesticides products are toxic in nature and
requires good packaging, company is dependent on plastic-based packing materials
hence exposed to fluctuations of crude prices in market. Some raw materials are also
linked to crude so any adverse movement in crude also impact RM prices.
24 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Regulatory Risks: Company has a policy of launching at least two 9(3) products
annually through tie-ups with innovators, however, registration of specialized (9(3))
products requires an arduous task of registering the products before launching. So, any
negative regulatory changes like addressed above of registering technicals after three
years could adversely affect the company.
VALUATIONS
At Rs 544, Dhanuka Agritech ltd trades at a:
➢ Let’s just calculate what growth rate the market is applying to the current stock
price by using reverse discounted cash flow (DCF).
➢ Assumptions:-Initial cash flow is 79 (average cash flow of last 3 years),
discount rate (opportunity cost of capital) is 12% and terminal growth rate after 5
years is 4%.
➢ By doing reverse DCF with above assumptions, I found that implied growth rate
by the market is 29%. i.e.; Market is expecting that Dhanuka Agritech will be able
to grow their cash flow at 29% for next 5 years.
➢ If we look at the growth rate of cash flow for past 5 years, Dhanuka Agritech has
grown their cash flow at 27%. Free cash flow= cash from operating activities
minus payment for purchase of fixed asset.
Year / Rs Crore FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 5 year CAGR
Net cash (used in) / generated from operating activities 47 33 110 140 63
Payment for purchase of fixed assets 30 31 26 32 20
Free Cash Flow 17 3 84 108 43 27%
Source: annual report
➢ Looking at the above growth rate, the implied growth rate of 29% by market is
certainly on higher side. It would be not feasible to assume that such high growth
rate will be reflected in future.
25 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 15%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 510
Current P/E (x) 21.17
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 10195
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 3282
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2669
➢ Current market cap is below the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has not fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 14%.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 10% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 2104 Cr. way less than current market cap of 2669
Cr.
Conclusion: Dhanuka Agritech Ltd. with asset light business model supported by
reasonably good distribution strength & brand image is poised to benefit from growing
Agrochemical Industry. However, current valuation does not provide adequate margin
of safety.
26 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
27 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Business Model:
IIL is mainly into a manufacturing of formulation products which contributes 75% to its
revenues while Institutional sales (mainly technical manufacturing segment) contribute
25% through selling of molecules to domestic players. The objective of company while
doing backward Integration was to reduce the cost of their formulation products, as 51%
of technical molecules are captively consumed by the formulation division.
Branded Formulation Segment
The company was mainly into selling of branded generic products in the market and was
doing reasonably well through acquiring established brands and re-launching it, but
management realized that the margin profile and capital returns were mediocre. So, like
other top Indian Generic Players, company also entered into a tie-up with Nissan
Chemicals in 2012 for an exclusive marketing of two products-Hakama and Pulsor. One
of the two products ‘Hakama’ is a selective herbicide whilst the other one ‘Pulsor’ is a
patented fungicide. ‘Pulsor’ is an exclusive tie-up with IIL whilst ‘Hakama’ was provided
by Nissan to Dhanuka Agritech (branded as Targa Super).
It also entered in a technical collaboration with US-based American Vanguard
Corporation (AMVAC) for the manufacturing and marketing of its product (NUVAN) in
India. Company is successfully expanding into specialized products segment through
tie-ups with many International Players, to take advantage of its distribution segment in
order to boast operating margins.
Entered into a Joint Venture (JV) with OAT Agrio, Japan
The IIL-OAT JV has set up a R&D Centre at Chopanki in Rajasthan. The JV would
mainly focus on research and invention of new agrochemicals. The total capex will be of
Rs. 40 Cr. with 20% contribution by IIL (around 8 Cr.) funded through term loans and
remaining by OAT.
IIL is the first company in India which is participating in generating new molecules. As
up till now, Indian Agrochemical companies have shied away from new molecule
discovery due to requirement of deep pockets, long gestation period and high
uncertainty of successful discovery. IIL has forayed in this space through JV to reduce
above risks.
Company will hold 30% voting rights in the JV and expects to register five new patents
in coming 2-3 years. Company got approval for one product patent and has filed for ten
process patents. IIL has been granted a patent for the preparation process of
acetamiprid, an insecticide to control pests.
Generally, even after registration, it requires 3-4 years to commercialize the operation of
products. Though commercializing a molecule takes time, IIL will immensely benefit
from the partnership as new molecules will enhance its product portfolio quality.
28 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
IIL and OAT will each have exclusive rights to develop and commercialize the products
across the world divided into their specific regions of access. IIL will also have the
opportunity to manufacture the products invented by JV for exports market. Since,
patented molecules earn substantially higher margin than generic products, it can lead
to overall margin improvement for IIL. Company is also open to CRAM business
opportunity due to the relationship and trust built-up with Japanese company and
already has facility to take advantage of any such agreement in future.
Large off-Patent Opportunity
Agrochemicals worth $ 4.1 bn (over Rs 26,000 Cr.) are expected to go off-patent by
2020. According to market intelligence firm CCM, during the period from 2017 to 2022,
the patents of 34 agrochemical active ingredients will expire. These active ingredients
include 15 kinds of herbicide, seven kinds of insecticides and 11 types of fungicides and
one safener.
Management is optimistic that they will successfully tap this opportunity and will try
being second or third player if not first to launch off-patent molecules. Company has
already indicated that they will double the launches from four to eight and are in the
process of getting those off-patent products registered in India as well as in other
markets. In fact, Management has guided that they will launch dozen of off-patent
molecules in fy19 itself.
Many Indian companies sell specialized products in association with MNCs. There is an
opportunity to sell molecules of specialized products to these companies once their
product molecules goes off-patent. CIB clarification on time bound registration of
technical after three years protection will also be beneficial for the company in coming
years. Once the technical become registered on which some companies are enjoying
exclusivity even after getting off-patent, IIL is planning to get me-too registration for
those molecules as well.
“Green Label” is one of the company’s successful off-patent products. The product has
emerged as a specialist of weed control in paddy and has the same molecule as Nominee
gold (Largest selling Rice Herbicide for PI) whose patent was earlier held by Japanese
giant Kumiai. The technical is Bispyribac Sodium and company was first in India to
manufacture this molecule to end the dependency on imports. Product has received a
very good market response and crossed 100 Cr. sales in FY18, where 60% is institutional
sale (sale of molecule to formulation companies) and 40% from brand sales.
Company’s strategy is to shift from generic molecules segment to off patent molecules in
coming years. Every time company launches new generation products, they discontinue
selling some generic products (commodity highly toxic “red triangle” labeled products)
having least contribution to revenue. This replacement process might cause some
revenue loss until new generation products earned better revenue than previous generic
product. Currently, there are 4-5 red triangle products of company contributing 15-20%
of revenues. Since, there is substantial opportunity for new generation products in
coming years, some revenue loss in short term should not be considered as a major
concern.
29 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
IIL has already invested Rs 2 bn for setting up facility for technicals as well as for
formulation in Dahej plant. The Dahej plant spread in 32 acres area has a capacity of
10000 MTS of technicals, 40 lakhs liters of EC, 2500 MTS of WDP and 12000 MTS of
Granules. Now, Indian government is restricting imports from china in order to
promote ‘Make in India’ regime. Company is planning to spend another Rs. 30 crores
for brown-field expansion of its technicals facility at Dahej. Company has also applied
for new facility in Dahej, which upon approval will be set up especially for technical
molecules. IIL imports 50% RM out of total RM imports (25% of total RM) from china.
In next fiscal, i.e., FY19 Company will set up a new plant (funded by internal accruals)
for catering to the increased demand caused by off patent opportunity and import
restriction from China.
More than 20 registrations are in process which will further improve capacity utilization
of technical plants. Ramping of Dahej plant will be critical given the amount of
investment is made by company. Management plans to manufacture high value
technicals (eg: Monocrotophos and rDiafenthuron) and expects backward integration of
several existing branded formulations would lead to improvement in margins as these
are high priced technicals.
IIL has also recently launched another biological product, KAYAKALP. Kayakalp works
as a natural catalyst to improve soil’s organic capacity strengthen its nutrient value and
act as a health booster tonic for the soil that will help Indian farmers improve output.
Management is expecting sales of around Rs. 100 crores in next three years. Company
also got organic certificate for six products which company plans to launch in coming
years. This segment might help company to counter risk against rising popularity of
reducing usage of chemical pesticides. As IIL is one of the first companies in chemical
segment which has expanded into biological segment, company is certainly in lucrative
position to enjoy first mover advantage in future.
Product Portfolio: Company generally is depended on top 20-25 products which
they called Maharatnas. It includes both “Navratna’s” top selling 9 products of IIL
followed by next 11 products called “Super 11”. Company strategy is to introduce
different products under their Umbrella brands to leverage on the high brand recall
within the farmer community. Top five brands include Lethal, Victor, Thimet, Monocil
and Nuvan.
Top Selling Products
Brand Technical Product Application
Name Category
Lethal Chlorpyriphos Insecticide Lethal works on controlling sucking and chewing
20% EC insects on cotton. It also helps in controlling
insects in paddy & vegetables.
Victor Imidacloprid Insecticide Victor is used for controlling sucking pests,
17.8% SL hoppers and termites in cotton, paddy, vegetables
and sugarcane
Thimet Phorate10% CG Insecticide Thimet is used for control of chewing as well as
sucking insects on a wide range of food crops, oil
seeds, pulses, fiber crops, and horticulture crops.
Monocil Monocrotophos Insecticide Monocil is a generic insecticide used for a broad
36% SL spectrum of pests in a wide range of crops.
Nuvan Dichlorovos Insecticide Nuvan is a widely used generic insecticide to
76% EC control household pests and protect stored
products from insects.
Pluto/ Emamectin Insecticide It controls bollworms in gram, cotton, vegetable,
Xplode Benzoate5% SG pulses, and helps in increasing yields.
Hijack Glyphosate 41% Herbicide Hijack is a widely used variant for Glysophate
SL herbicide.
Pulsor Thifluzamide Fungicide Pulsor is a selective post emergent herbicide for
24% SC the control of a wide range of broadleaf weeds in
cereals, clover, new pasture and peas.
Hakama Quizalofop- Herbicide Hakama is a selective herbicide for grassy weeds
ethyl 5% EC (narrow leaf weeds) used in broad leaf crops like
soybean, cotton, groundnut, blackgram, onion,
jute and mentha.
31 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Out of the above top brands, molecules sourced through International Collaboration
include Thimet, Nuvan, Hakama and Pulsor. Further, it has recently entered an
agreement with Nihon Nohyaku for exclusive distribution of SUZUKA (Flubendiamide)
which is an effective solution for control of pests in different crops like pulses,
vegetables and paddy. IIL plans to introduce one more brand HAKKO, an insecticide for
BPH in paddy crop in tie-up with Nihon.
Some products launched recently include:
Encounter –Insecticide applied for the crops like tea, pulses, cotton, and vegetables.
Aikido – Insecticide: This product is launched in technical collaboration with Nihon
Nohyaku, Japan. This product gives complete protection from brown plant hoppers
(BPH), white plant hoppers (WBPH) and leaf folder which destroy about 2530% percent
of paddy crop in the country every year. Applied for paddy and can also be used on
vegetables to get higher yields.
Hercules – Insecticide: This product largely applied for Cotton crop to protect from
sucking pest like white fly, Jassids & Thrips.
Sofia – Fungicide: It is especially useful for crops paddy, grapes, chilly, mango,
cucumber, rose, tomato, peas & cumin.
Company is confident of scaling up in-licensing arrangements leveraging strong
distribution network. They are also planning to launch 8-9 products in FY19, out of
which 6 launches will be from 9(3) segment and management expects that they will
boast EBITDA margins by around 250 bps in coming years. Management has guided to
launch 5-6 products on average every year for the next 5-6 years, out of which 75%
products will be 9(3). They are also planning to introduce product molecule combining
two different molecules which helps to serve more problems of farmers using single
product.
In FY18, Revenue Contribution from Branded Formulation Sales was around75%, out of
this 75%, ‘Navratna’ range of products accounted for around 64% while remaining 11%
is contributed by Super 11 range of products. Management is continuously striving to
increase the share of branded formulation and expected line up of 9(3) products will
definitely help to increase branded product share in coming years.
Punjab ban of Insecticides
Punjab Government has banned 20 Insecticides including Monocotophos (one of the
Navratna’s of IIL) in the list of insecticides harmful for environment. Under the
Insecticide Act 1968, State Govt. has suspended the pesticides for 60 days. After that
they will be sending a report to the Central Insecticide Board which will eventually take
a final call on the ban. According to Management, out of the 100 Cr. Market of Banned
products, company will take a hit of 10% i.e., 11 to 12 Cr. on top line in FY19.
Distribution and Promotion:
IIL has extensive distribution system with a network of 5000 distributors and 60,000
retail touch points with over 30 depots.
32 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Company also get engaged in various on the ground farmer engagement activities like
company initiated a country-wide awareness drive for farmers under the name of
“Bhumi Kayakalp Abhiyan” (Land Rejuvenation Campaign), under which the company
aims to reach over 10 lakh farmers educating farmers about protecting and rejuvenating
the soil health.
It is also involved in activities like “Jagruta Abhiyan” and “Doctor Dada” campaign
educating farmers about the effective and efficient use of products catering to specific
crop related problems. Company has hired Actor Sunil Shetty as their brand
ambassador as company strategy of leveraging brand recall by launching different
products under same brands is well complimented by creating brand awareness through
Bollywood actor. Company has been spending around 14-16% of net revenues on sales
promotion and distribution expenses.
180 15%
160 15%
14%
140 14%
120
14%
Rs. Cr.
100
16% 14%
80
60
40
20
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Ad & Sales Promotion Spend 72 75 88 120 134 145 165
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Mr. Hari Chand Chairman He has been a Director on our Board since 2001. He has
Aggarwal and Whole over 40 years of work experience in the agrochemical
Time Director industry. He has been the president of Northern India
Pesticide Manufacturing Association for more than five
terms.
Mr. Rajesh Managing He holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from the
Aggarwal Director University of Delhi. He has over 22 years of experience in
agrochemical industry and handles day-to-day
operations of company.
Mrs. Whole Time She holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from the
NikunjAggarwal Director University of Delhi. She has over two years of experience
in the field of agrochemical industry.Presently, she is
involved in general management covering almost all
aspects of day to day business activities.
Mr. Navin Shah Independent He has over 40 years of experience in the field of
Director manufacturing PVC compounds and plastics.
34 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
35 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Gross profit of IIL is lowest among its peers despite being backwardly
integrated into Technical segment. Though management is expecting
improvement in coming years with expansion in technical segment as still 25% of
total raw materials are imported.
• Earlier, company was only in branded generics segment not having much
pricing power which resulted in lower gross profits. Although from last few
years, there have been several launches in specialty products resulting in
some improvement in gross margins and IIL has also planned new
launches in specialty and 9(3) products in coming years which will further
boast gross profit margins.
36 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Finance costs also shown uptrend due inclusion of foreign currency losses in
interest costs as total debt also includes foreign currency loans along with
domestic debt to fund some expansions. However, it has been decreasing from
last two years and expected to show same trend in coming years as management
plans to reduce debt with increasing sales. Also, the recent expansions will be
done using internal accruals suggesting that there will not be any further increase
in debt.
➢ Revenue: Insecticide India Ltd. has grown its revenue at a CAGR of 13% from
last 8 years. Company clocks around 70% of revenue from Formulation segment
(B2C) and 30% from Institutional sales (B2B).
Net Sales
1,200 1,107
1,073
965 990
1,000
864
800
Rs. Crore
617
600 522
450
400
200
-
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
➢ Insecticides contributes largest chunk with 60% of revenues coming from this
segment. The company has been trying to strengthen its herbicide portfolio
currently contributing around 26%.
37 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Fungicides are also the fastest growing segment accounts for 10% as of now while
the remaining 4% contributed by plant growth regulators & bio-fertilizers.
Though IIL has Pan-India presence, company derives most of the revenues from
North and South region with strong presence in these regions and with cotton
and paddy being their main crops.
➢ Company has been successful in growing revenues above the Industry growth
rate of approx. 10% and is mostly through price hike. Company’s decision on
revamping operation in direction of branded segments has worked quite well for
them and is expected to improve with line of new products to be introduced in
coming years. As there is still a lot of potential for improvement in revenues
through export contribution, launch of 9(3) products in coming years and
expansion in technical segment due to off-patent opportunities.
Cash Flow: Company has a checkered history with respect to operating cash flows. As
OCF was not enough to fund the expansion, Company mainly funded through debt and
some through equity dilution. Improvement in WC cycle along with increasing profits
can help to increase operating cash flow in coming years.
38 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Risks &Concerns:
Adverse currency movement: 25% of raw material costs are imported for IIL.
Hence, any sharp INR movement could impact the company’s earnings adversely.
However, company usually hedge around 25% of its currency exposure.
Company is also registering molecules abroad for exports; any changes in regulatory
requirement might impact the company plan of aggressive export sales.
Investment Risks: Company has heavily invested in setting up Dahej Plant and
invested in JV for working on new molecules. Company needs to increase capacity
utilization of plant along with focusing on new molecules launch to generate sufficient
returns on investment.
VALUATIONS:
➢ At Rs 666, Insecticide India ltd trades at a:
Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 CAGR (7-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
Net Profit (Rs Cr.) 32 33 35 40 55 39 58 84 15% 20%
Net Profit Margin 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 5% 7.3%
Return on Equity 21% 19% 19% 22% 14% 14%
39 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Assumptions: -
1. Taking optimistic scenario that Net Profit will grow at 12%
2. Using an exit multiple of 15x.
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 261
Current P/E (x) 16.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 15
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 3913
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 1260
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1377
o Current market cap is above the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
o So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 11%.
o Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 8% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 876 Cr. less than current market cap of 1377 Cr.
Conclusion: IIL has taken several initiatives which have resulted in significant sales
growth, but bottom line has not improved much due to high expenses and depreciation
due to capex. There are chances that once capacity utilization kicks in, company may
have significant improvement in bottom line along with new launches of specialized
products having high margins. However, at this time, expecting more than 12% growth
in bottom line may not be feasible given management has been claiming improvement
from last few years and are not reflected much up till now.
40 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Areas of Business:
Domestic Formulation Business:
This segment caters to the crop protection and yield enhancement needs of the Indian
farmers including insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and plant-growth nutrients
mostly through generic branded products. Company also has relationship with many
innovator companies which prefer Rallis as their distribution partner.
However, recent launches in last 3-4 years have not yielded much benefit to top line.
The company lost exclusivity on patented products which led to significant price erosion
coupled with tough competition from domestic generic players. Management is working
on building relationship with International companies for distribution tie-ups and also
planning to launch a dozen of products in the next five years.
41 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
42 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Based on the success of Pharma CSM, Rallis will finalize plans to move more
aggressively in this segment. Given the higher margins potential in Contract
manufacturing than formulation business segment, this might prove to be major growth
driver of Rallis in coming years.
➢ Company is strong in millet, maize, pulses, and corn, cotton, paddy and
vegetables crops. Company consciously avoided the wheat segment as molecules
are already available at cheap rates so entering in the segment might not fetch
much return to company.
➢ Company has launched 14 products in last four years but their contribution to the
revenue is not significant. One of the reasons that products are not performing
well is lack of promotion activities by company on ground level. Moreover,
company has been strict with dealers for collection of receivables which has led to
dealer’s ignorance for company’s products. However, company has been
extending credit periods from last two years which has led to some improvement
in performance.
➢ In fact, company has lost market share to other players due to shift of focus in
other businesses in the past, stringent credit terms and not so successful product
launches. Company has been claiming re-acquisition of some market share in the
last two years.
➢ Continuous launches of branded products with ground level promotion along
with lenient credit terms to dealers are the key for company to improve domestic
agro-input sales.
➢ Management highlighted in Q4FY18 con-call that the company has at least 12
new products in its pipeline for launch in the next five years. Of these, five are
exclusive products, i.e., those in which Rallis will be either the sole marketer or
43 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Distribution: The Company has a wide distribution network with 2000 dealers &
40,000 retailers thereby covering around 80% of the Indian districts. The company has
over 25 depots with ~200 plus field staff and more than 1200-1300 crop advisers. Rallis
has presence in almost all key Agri states including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Punjab and Haryana among others.
44 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Bhaskar Chairman Mr. Bhaskar Bhat, B.Tech, PGDM, has been Managing Director
Bhat of Titan Company Limited since April 1, 2002 and also serves as
its Chief Executive Officer. He has been Chairman of the Board at
Rallis India Limited since December 25, 2015. Mr. Bhat has
completed his Post Graduate Diploma in Management from
Indian Institute of Management (IIM), Ahmedabad in 1978 and
has received a B.Tech in Mechanical Engineering from IIT, 1976
V. Shankar Managing Mr Shankar (CA, CWA, CS and LLB) has an experience of almost
Director & CEO. 30 years across various fields related to chemicals and fertilizers.
He moved to the Tata Group in 2004 and is spearheading their
Agri-related businesses.
Prakash R. Independent Mr. Prakash Ranjan Rastogi served as a Vice Chairman and
Rastogi Director Managing Director of Clariant India Ltd. Mr. Rastogi had
been with Sandoz India from 1974 till 1994 when he was
Vice President and Head of the Chemicals Division before it
was de-merged to become Clariant.
Bharat Non- Mr. Bharat Vasani serves as the Group General Counsel of Tata
Vasani Independent, Group. Mr. Vasani served as Group General Counsel of Tata Sons
Non-Executive Limited for 17 years until July 2017. He is a Member of the
Institute of Company Secretaries of India. He holds B. Com., and
L.L.B.
R. Non- Mr. Ramakrishnan Mukundan, B.E.(Elec), MBA, has been the
Mukundan Independent, Managing Director of Tata Chemicals Limited since November
Non-Executive 2008 and also serves as its Chief Executive Officer. During his
18-year career with Tata Group, he has held various
responsibilities including strategy & business development,
corporate quality, corporate planning, etc. across the Chemical,
Automotive and Hospitality sectors of the Tata Group.
Y. S. P. Independent Dr. Yashwantrao Shankarrao Patil Thorat, Ph.D., served as the
Thorat Director. Managing Director of National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
Development since 2004. Dr. Thorat holds a Doctorate in
Economics and a Degree in Political Science and Law.
Punita Independent Dr. Punita Kumar Sinha, Ph.D., is the Founder and Managing
Kumar- Director. Partner of Pacific Pacific Paradigm Advisors, LLC. Dr. Kumar-
Sinha Sinha has a Ph.D. and a Masters in Finance from the Wharton
School, University of Pennsylvania. She received her
Undergraduate degree in Chemical Engineering from the Indian
Institute of Technology, New Delhi and M.B.A. degree from
Drexel University, Philadelphia.
C. V. Independent Dr. C. V. Natraj, Ph.D. has been a Senior Vice President of
Natraj Director. Corporate Research in the Strategy and Technology division at
Unilever since September 2000. Dr. Natraj has more than 30
years of experience in research.
Mrs. Independent Mrs. Padmini Khare Kaicker serves as a the Managing Partner of
Padmini Director. B. K. Khare & Co., one of the leading and respected Indian
Khare Accounting Firms, serving the profession for almost 5 decades.
Kaicker
45 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Brand Recall Company is mostly into generic products packaged in Narrow moat
& Product Rallis brand which has served well in the past because
Portfolio of brand image of Tata Rallis. However, in recent time
company has faced tough competition by generic
players (red triangle products) selling at much lower
prices and farmer down trading to those products due
to low farm incomes.
Pricing Company was not able to pass price hike in RM due to Narrow Moat
Power shutdown of plants in china as they are mostly in
generic segment facing tough competition from other
players.
46 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Financial Analysis
Rallis India Ltd. has grown its Revenue at a CAGR of 5% from last 8 years. Company
clocks around 68% of revenue from domestic business and 32% from exports.
Net Sales
1,800
1,600 1,531 1,518 1,499
1,400
1,400 1,324 1,288
1,181
1,200 1,067
INR Cr.
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
47 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Year / Rs Cr. FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Expenditure
Cost of Raw Material Consumed 54.2% 52.6% 51.8% 51% 49.1% 48% 46.4% 47%
Purchase of Traded Goods 8.4% 7.8% 9.4% 12.4% 11.7% 9.4% 8.9% 15.7%
(Increase)/Decrease in Inventory -3.7% -0.3% 1.8% -2.4% -2.1% -0.2% 2.5% -4.9%
Employees Benefit Expenses 6.5% 6.8% 5.9% 5.8% 6.8% 8% 8.1% 8.4%
Other Expenses 16.8% 16.5% 15.7% 17.1% 17.8% 18.8% 17.2% 18.7%
Total Operating Expenditure 82.2% 83.3% 84.6% 83.8% 83.3% 84% 83.2% 84.9%
Gross Profit 41.1% 40% 37% 39% 41.3% 42.8% 42.1% 42.1%
Operating Profit / EBITDA 17.8% 16.7% 15.4% 16.2% 16.7% 16% 16.8% 15.1%
Other Income 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6%
Depreciation 1.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 3% 2.7%
Profit Before Interest & Tax (PBIT) 17.5% 15% 14.1% 14.2% 13.8% 13.4% 14.5% 13%
Interest/Finance Costs 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%
Exceptional Income / Expenses 0% -1.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11.3% 0%
Profit Before Tax 17.2% 12.7% 13.1% 13.7% 13.5% 12.8% 25.6% 12.8%
Current Tax 4.8% 3.2% 2.9% 4% 3.7% 2.8% 5.7% 3.3%
Other Taxes 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1% 0%
Profit After Tax 11.8% 8.6% 9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 19% 9.5%
Source: annual report (Standalone figures (from FY15 Ind AS))
48 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Rallis is in one the few companies having shortest cash conversion cycle.
Management has been quite focused on maintaining their working capital but
sometimes their conservative approach has made the dealers less enthusiastic while
pushing their products in the market.
➢ However, working capital days increased sharply in FY18 due to higher inventory
days as company decided to stock up on raw materials in anticipation of possible
shortages caused by supply-side constraints in China and increase in closing
inventory of finished product due to farmer down-trading in difficult Industry
environment.
➢ Receivables also went up due to cash crunch among farmers and longer credit period
allowed to institutional players. Management is planning to bring the WC days to
normalcy level in upcoming fiscal.
49 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ In Fy18, free cash flow was negative due to low PAT and high working capital
requirements.
Risks &Concerns:
➢ Poor or delayed monsoon: Rallis’ business is highly dependent on strong
farm incomes which in-turn is dependent on good, timely and evenly distributed
monsoon.
➢ Adverse currency movement: 40% of raw material costs are imported from
China for Rallis India ltd. Hence, any sharp INR movement could impact the
company’s earnings adversely.
➢ Increase in crude oil prices: Many Molecules are dependent on derivative of
crude oil, so increase in crude oil prices will negatively impact the company’s
gross margins.
➢ Overseas regulation: Rallis is registering its products in the overseas market.
Stringent regulations by the respective countries can affect the company’s growth
adversely.
VALUATIONS
➢ At Rs 186, Rallis India ltd trades at a:
50 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Assumptions: -
1. Taking optimistic scenario that Net Profit will grow at 12%
2. Using an exit multiple of 20x.
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 441
Current P/E (x) 25.69
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 15
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 8821
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 2840
Current Market Cap (standalone basis) (Rs Cr) 3123
➢ Current market cap is below the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has fully discounted the expected optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 11 %.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 10% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 2372 Cr. way less than current market cap of 3123
Cr. (estimated market cap of standalone business segment as total market cap of
company is 3634 – 510.6 estimated market cap of other business segment =
3123.4)
51 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
PI Industries Limited
Introduction
PI Industry is one of the largest players in the Indian Agrochemical industry. The
company is among the very few players in the industry to have transformed from a pure
play domestic agrochemical player to a company with significant presence in the CSM
space. The company operated in two major business segments which include Agri
Inputs and Custom synthesis. The Agri input business offers plant protection and
solutions while custom synthesis is production of agro chemicals, intermediates and
other niche chemicals for global innovators.
With strength of over 2000 employees, the company currently operates in a strong
infrastructure set-up consisting of three formulation facilities as well as eight multi-
product plants under its three manufacturing locations at Panoli (near Ankleshwar) and
Jambusar (near Bharuch) in Gujarat and Jammu in J&K.
Joint research centre with Sony Corporation: The Company opened a joint
research centre in 2010 with Sony Corporation for development of commercially viable
processes for molecules invented by Sony. Research would be in the field of electronic
chemicals.
Deal structure: The Company has assigned a dedicated lab to the Sony project. The
hardware assets are invested by PI industries while the soft assets are the joint property
of both the companies. Company gets a fixed fee during the process research and scale
up period. Once CSM manufacturing starts, arrangement shifts to normal contracts
model between the companies. The IP belongs to Sony but if PI makes any process
improvements, then the IP is jointly owned.
52 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Journey so far:
• PII was set up by the late Mr. P P Singhal in 1947 , as an edible oil refinery unit
which was closed fown later.
1947
• The company also gradually started to invest in R&D. In the 1970s, distribution
expanded further into West Bengal and the southern states.
1970s • Diversified into mining, later hived off into separate company .
• The company which used to just do formulations till the early 70s, eventually
started manufacturing active ingredients by 1980 with indigenous R&D. n the
1980s.
• In 1978, the company diversified into mining and mineral processing; this
1980s business was later hived off into a separate unlisted company, Wolkem India
Ltd.
• It moved to the SAP system. PI expanded its Udaipur R&D facility and also
established PI Life Science Research.
• Set up New multi product plants for Fine Chemicals in Panoli in 2008.
2000s • Inauguration of PI-Sony Research Center and Launch of Nominee Gold in 2010.
53 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
The company signed its first CSM contract in 1997-98. In the initial 4-5 years, the size of
the projects used to be small as the MNCs were quite reticent about their products
because they knew that without any patent protection laws, their registration and
product data is open for everyone to replicate. However, 2005 was a landmark year for
this business with India becoming a signatory to the WTO Patent & IPR treaty, and
patent laws being framed in India. Since then, PI started getting larger project enquiries
from Global MNCs. PI has gained respect of global innovators for keeping secure their
confidential data and intellectual property. PI never tried to reverse engineer a single
molecule and hence has emerged as a trusted partner for global MNCs.
PI is involved in the manufacturing of the molecule from the very early stages of its
lifecycle. The company is not directly involved in inventing any molecule- that part is
handled by the global MNCs. PI’s expertise lies in product’s process research so as to
manufacture the molecule with high yield and ensure timely delivery of the product.
54 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Company work on fee-based structure during process research and scale up stage, but
these stages are treated by company as investment phase because volumes are generally
10 kg and can move up to 1 tonne as scale up happens. But once the commercialization
begins, volume size moves from 50 T to 200 T in a rapid manner.
The CSM contracts are typically signed for 4-5 years which are renewed generally. The
patent life of molecule is generally 20 years. Typically the first 6-7 years are consumed
in getting regulatory approvals and processes in place. So, productive life cycle of a
typical molecule is 12-13 years. The first 6-7 years are good growth years for the
company.
These are largely take-or-pay contracts wherein delivery times might vary as per
demand but revenues are in general assured over the executable period. Hence there
might be phases wherein one can see muted growth or de-growth in particular year but
the same get compensated by aggressive growth in subsequent year(s).
PI Industry is associated with the global innovators since the early phase which makes
them a partner rather than a mere supplier thereby de-risking its business model to a
great extent. Another interesting aspect which de-risks the PI’s CSM segment is the fact
that the company is the only or one of the two suppliers to most of its customers. CSM
contracts also cover the fluctuations of raw material, currency as well as low delivery off-
take Hence, the only risk that remains with PI is the delivery risk which is taken care of
by the professional and efficient management.
While registering their product in a country, the innovator is required to mention the
company which is expected to supply the Active Ingredient. The process involves tedious
paperwork and the company has to abide by numerous norms to get the approval. Once
a company secures the title of an ‘Active Supplier’, it is highly unlikely that the innovator
would switch as it is quite a cumbersome process. Also, the process efficiency of
molecule kicks in with more experience. Once PI industries becomes their trusted
partner, it is highly unlikely that the MNCs would not risk disturbing the working
combination as any change will set them back by a few years.
55 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Competitive Scenario
As far as competition goes, there are no domestic competitors for PI and the current
order-book is established by PI by winning orders against Saltigo, Lonza and DSM - all
global majors in CSM space. The domestic Agro-chemicals market is characterized by
the high levels of price based competition for generic products. This segment however
requires far more resources to develop products for Indian conditions, seed them and
then grow the volumes in the domestic market. The upside is that the returns on these
investments are much higher than the generic space.
Although the CSM order book is heavily loaded in favor of the agrochemical molecules.
The company is looking to tap lucrative opportunities in specialty chemicals, electronic
chemicals (JV with Sony), pharma intermediates etc. The size of the non-agro segment
is manifold larger than the current size ( USD 5 billion) of CSM space. The company’s
new expansions are targeting molecules in these segments (like setting up of two
dedicated plants to individual molecules in Jambusar (near Bharuch) in Gujarat and
further development of new R&D centre at Udaipur) which are considered to be
potential next growth driver of PI CSM Business segment. Company is also planning for
opening of two new multi product plants in FY19 with a Capex of 225-250 Cr.
commissioning of both plants expected by end of December-January FY19.
By the turn of the century, PI Industries had two different strategies to scale up its
business:
56 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
PI’s management took a strategic call of reducing its dependence on the generics export
business as it might meet significant roadblocks due to increased awareness against
agrochemical side effects, contamination of water, toxicity etc. Thus the company
decided to shift its focus towards innovative agrochemicals and a symbiotic model with
global MNCs.
1. If the management feels that CSM innovative molecule also has a market potential in
India, then it enters into an in-licensing arrangement with the respective global
innovator company which enhances revenue streams for both the companies. The
success of this Agri-input business model is evident from the performance of PI’s
flagship brand Nominee Gold, a rice herbicide, which was brought to India by PI via
in-licensing arrangement with Japan’s Kumiai Chemical.
2. Company has adopted strategy of co-marketing arrangements for Nominee Gold with
a few MNC players. In return MNC also gives Company an access to some of their
brands for co-marketing. Company also entered into a strategic tie-up with BASF,
Germany, one of the leading chemical companies to market their innovative fungicides
and herbicides in India. Company already launched four new products in FY18 in
collaboration with BASF.
3. Company initially started their operations in branded generic segment. However, with
passage of time, their contribution to sales has reduced due to shift of focus to in-
licensing products. Still, company has some products like Foratox, Fosmite, Roket, and
Carina which has been the largest brands in India in generic category.
57 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Product Portfolio:
Some of company’s significant brands like Nominee Gold, Osheen, Biovita, Cuprina,
Roket, Foratox, Kitazin, Keefun, and Vibrant have built a strong association with
farmers and a strong recall value in the minds of our consumers. Company’s product
portfolio is caters to mainly rice crops followed by cotton, fruits and vegetables.
Nominee Gold: PI introduced post emergent herbicides such as Nominee Gold for the
rice crop in India in FY10. All post emergent herbicides present in the market could
tackle much lesser number of weeds at best 5-6 than what Nominee Gold could tackle
i.e., 20-30 weeds/grass that usually grow around the rice plant in any one location.
However, Nominee gold patent has expired and other Industry players have launched
generic version like Insecticides India’s product “Green Label” which resulted in low
contribution to sales of Nominee Gold in FY18. Company will start manufacturing
molecule of Nominee Gold till now imported from Kumai under the JV with Mitsui.
58 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Vibrant: - Vibrant is a new granular insecticide having systemic and contact activity for
effective control of stem borer and leaf folder in Rice crop having a potential market of
INR 13b. Product has performed well due to its high level of efficacy compare to other
insecticides available in market targeting single pests.
The 5 new products that were launched in the domestic market in FY18 have all been
well accepted by the farmers. The company also plans to launch at least three new
products in FY19 (wheat herbicide, rice insecticide, and vegetable insecticide).
PI’s strategy of focusing on its core business of Agri-inputs and CSM is evident with the
divestment of its polymer business to Rhodia, S.A. As the polymer business was not
fitting in well with the growth strategy going forward. PI received around 70 crores from
this business which was utilized in reducing the debt from its balance sheet and funding
its core business activities. PIL has booked exceptional gain of 30 crores on sale during
FY12.
The deal concluded in April, 2011 includes transfer of all assets, people, plant facility, R
& D capabilities, customer base and logistic network in India. The polymer business
witnessed significant pressure on margins because of input-cost pressures. Post this
divesture, PIL is completely focused on both high margin and highly scalable
businesses.
Distribution: PI has a strong marketing and distribution network which covers more
than 40,000 retail points and 10,000 distributors/direct dealers across all major
agricultural nodes. The company is particularly strong in the north, west, and east
regions.
59 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Company has developed in house SAP toll which is used for forecasting demand of the
product across regions. Each of the 140-150 territories is assigned a manager who
meticulously assesses demand from his region on various parameters like type of crop,
total acreage, planting practices, products available in the market etc. SAP tool has
proved instrumental to company’s planning process.
R&D plays an important part in generating revenues under the CSM business segment.
PI’s R&D is involved in synthesis and development of new molecules in agrochemicals,
fine chemicals, specialty chemicals and photographic chemicals - end products as well as
intermediates on the basis of in-house research. Company believes that Technology will
be the key differentiator going forward so they are Augmenting R&D capabilities. R&D
facility is spread in 125,000 sq. ft. in Udaipur, with over 250 scientists in fully
operational state.
Company is involved in Process research where R&D costs are quite low compare to
innovation research facilities. Therefore, an annual spend on R&D is around 2-3% of
Revenues. Out of this spending, 60% is usually spent on boasting long term capabilities
and remaining on functional operational requirements of company.
Mr. Salil Singhal got retired giving the reins of PI Industry to his son Mr. Mayank
Singhal. PI Industry is a family run organization with Professional management at
senior level. Company is focused on their two Business Segments mainly catering to
Agrochemicals. Mayank Singhal, CEO and Managing Director played a crucial role in
setting up their CSM business segment which differentiates company from all other
players in Industry
60 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
61 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Key point Details Conclusion
Management Mayank Singhal has been working with his father Mr. Salil Wide moat
Singhal and growing the business since 1996.
It will take at least 15-20 years for new comer to win orders
from innovators at initial stage of lifecycle. Thus company is in
very strong position when it comes to contract manufacturing
business keeping competitors at bay.
Distribution Company has one of the strongest marketing and distribution Wide Moat
network catering to all regions.
Sony has partnered with PI for joint research centre and it was
first time that Sony jointly worked with any company in India.
62 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Financial Analysis
PI Industries has grown its Revenue at a CAGR of 18% from last 8 years. Company
generally clocks around 38% of revenue from Domestic Formulation Business and 62%
from export segment.
Net Sales
2,500
2,277 2,277
2,097
2,000 1,940
1,596
INR Cr.
1,500
1,151
1,000 879
720
500
-
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Segmental Revenue:
Revenue (Rs. Cr.) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
CSM 374 595 925 1139 1274 1401 1401
Growth (%) 59% 55% 23% 12% 11% 0%
Agri-input Sales 505 556 671 801 823 867 875
Growth (%) 10% 21% 19% 3% 5% 1%
Total Revenue 879 1,151 1,596 1,940 2,097 2,277 2,277
➢ Under custom synthesis and manufacturing (CSM) business, revenue growth was
below potential because the company was unable to source adequate raw material
to meet its supply commitments due to plants closure in China, some logistic
problems at the port and de-stocking of sales globally. These orders will spill over
the upcoming quarters.
63 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ The CSM business has grown by 25% CAGR in the past, but slowed in the last
three years due to weak Agri-markets globally. 1.15 billion USD order book is
executable over a 4-5 year period, out of which 60% are long term contracts while
roughly 40% gets negotiated annually.
➢ 70% of revenues in CSM segment is derived from top five molecules in FY18
while 30% from rest 15 odd molecules.
➢ It takes around 3-4 years to achieve sustainable growth rate in new molecules
which will increase new molecules contribution to sales in coming years.
There was de-growth in domestic formulation business segment in FY18 due to uneven
rainfall in few regions. This along with GST de-stocking and raw material supply
problems resulted in muted growth for the company as well as industry in the domestic
market in FY18.
64 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
65 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
66 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Increase in crude oil prices: Many raw materials are derived from crude and recent
price hike in crude might adversely affect cost of raw material of the company.
VALUATIONS
At Rs 790, PI Industries ltd trades at a:
Price-earnings ratio 23.72 Price to Cash Flow 32.14
Price to book value 6.69 EV/EBITDA 18.49
Source: screener. in
➢ Let’s just calculate what growth rate the market is applying to the current stock
price by using reverse discounted cash flow (DCF).
➢ Assumptions:-Initial cash flow is 86(average cash flow of last 3 years), discount
rate is 12% and terminal growth rate after 10 years is 5%.
➢ By doing reverse DCF with above assumptions, I found that implied growth rate
by the market is 34%. i.e.; Market is expecting that PI Industries will be able to
grow their cash flow at 34% for next 10 years.
➢ If we look at the growth rate of cash flow for past 8 years, PI Industries has grown
their cash flow at 21%. Free cash flow= cash from operating activities minus
payment for purchase of fixed asset.
➢ Looking at the above growth rate, the implied growth rate of 34% by market is
certainly on higher side.
67 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 20%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 2247
Current P/E (x) 23.72
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 45496
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 14648
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 10720
➢ Current market cap is below the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has not fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 16%.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 16% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 9571 Cr. Less than current market cap of 10891
Cr.
Conclusion: PI Industry has grown tremendously in past few years due to growth in
revenues of CSM segment. However, recent global environment in agrochemical has
muted the growth. Company has huge opportunity in CSM segment with market
potential of 5 billion growing at 5-7% globally.
Successful product launches in domestic market along with revival in global agro-
market can augur well for company in future. Also, Pharma intermediate and electronic
chemical are future growth drivers along with expansion in Agro chemical order book.
Focused management with decades of experience along with unique business model
makes PI a strong player in Agrochemical Industry.
68 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
69 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
70 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Inter-party Transactions
Bharat Group comprises of three companies: Bharat Rasayan Ltd. (BRL), Bharat
Insecticides Ltd. and Bharat Agrotech Ltd.
Bharat Insecticides Ltd. (BIL) and BR Agrotech two Group Companies have formulation
facilities with a capacity of 25000 kls of liquids and 15000 mts of powders. BIL
manufactures broad array of products including fungicides, herbicides and Insecticides.
It is also an ideal partner for developing and distribution of new molecules in the
domestic market. BIL purchases molecules from Bharat rasayan ltd. and add inert
ingredients to manufacture finished formulated product.
BR Agrotech commenced operations with the commissioning of its pesticides unit at
Kathua in Jammu & Kashmir to tap the extensive capacity in toll manufacture (An
arrangement in which a company which has specialized equipment processes raw
materials or semi-finished goods for another company for a fee) and also cater to the
institutional customers. BR Agrotech is an ideal partner for several reputed companies
for formulating and packing their products in their trade names.
The group has a network of approximately 3,500 dealers and 30,000 distributors for
supplies spread across the country and have 23 branches in all the operating states. The
management maintains that the BRL is the flagship company of the Bharat group and
all the intercompany transactions (sales of technicals from BRL to group companies)
happen at the market price. Thus, the group derives cost advantage from the integrated
operations through lower dependence on import of technical grades. Company has also
taken loan from group companies in past for expansion in Dahej.
Management and Board of Directors
On 15th May, 1989 three veteran entrepreneurs - Mr. Sat Narain Gupta, Mr. Mahabir
Prasad Gupta and Mr. Rajender Prasad Gupta of Bharat Group set up the
conglomerate’s flagship company, Bharat Rasayan Ltd. (BRL) in New Delhi. It was a
backward integration project to manufacture Technical Grade Pesticides and
Intermediates confirming to International Standards.
Within two years, BRL commenced production at its fully equipped plant located in
Mokhra village of Rohtak district in Haryana. This plant has a capacity of 5000 MT per
annum and also facilities for bulk packaging of formulations. Another larger plant at
Dahej in Gujarat was set up to manufacture tech grade pesticides, intermediates and
bulk formulations.
Bharat Rasayan together with other Group Companies, happen to be one of the largest
manufacturers of technical grade pesticides, intermediates and formulations in India,
serving the cause of Indian agriculture for more than 38 years.
Management has effectively managed the shareholder capital in the past and is one of
the most conservative management when it comes to costing. At present, a Promoter
holding is 75% suggesting their confidence in Business. Company has not diluted share
capital in past and even had not issued any major warrants. Dividend payout ratio is
minimum as company needs capital for Capex and has been reducing debt by using
internal cash flows
71 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Mr. Sat Chairman & Mr. S. N. Gupta is a Post Graduate in Economics
Narain Gupta Managing having a rich experience of 38 years (approx.). Under
Director the esteemed guidance of Mr. S. N. Gupta, the
Company has earned the reputation of manufacturing
pesticides of world class quality and commitment to
fair dealings in our industry. S. N. Gupta is a Director
in the Company since its inception i.e. May 15, 1989
Mr. Mahabir Whole Time Mr. M.P.Gupta has an experience of more than 37
Prasad Gupta Director years in the Corporate Sector. He has to his credit, vast
experience in the field of Finance, Banking, Taxation,
Accounts and General Administration. Mr. M. P.
Gupta is a Director in the Company since inception,
i.e. May 15, 1989
Mr. Rajender Whole Time Mr. R.P.Gupta has vast experience of 28 years
Prasad Gupta Director (approx) in varied fields like
Manufacturing/Production, Procurement and General
Administration. He has been instrumental in setting
up the Company's plant at Dahej (Gujarat) and is also
involved in activities at other plant located at Rohtak
(Haryana).
Mr. Virender Executive Mr. V. K. Sharma has a rich experience of 29 Years
Kumar Director (approx.) in Agrochemical and Pharmaceutical
Sharma Industries. He is actively involved in the areas of
Production and General Administration of Company's
Unit located at Dahej, Gujarat. He has been on the
Board as an Executive Director since October 24, 2011.
Mr. Pankaj Independent Mr. Pankaj Gupta has an experience of 8 years in the
Gupta Director Legal field and Business Administration. Mr. Pankaj
Gupta is a Director in the Company since November
24, 2007.
Ms. Sujata Independent Mrs. Sujata Agarwal has a rich experience of 15 years
Agarwal Director as a financial consultant.
Mr. Suresh Independent Mr. Suresh Kumar Garg has a rich experience in the
Kumar Garg Director field of Insurance sector.
Mr. Ram Independent Mr. Ram Kanwar is a Post Graduate in Economics and
Kanwar Director has vast experience of 39 years (approx.) in the field of
Business Strategies. Mr. Ram Kanwar is associated
with the Company since July 10, 2008.
Source: annual reports
72 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Product Company generally launches 2-3 molecules every year Wide moat
Portfolio and recent tie-up with Nissan for an innovative
fungicide in Rice with group company BIL will also
augur well for company in future.
73 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Gross profit of the company has been fairly stable indicating that company has
managed to pass on any rise in raw material cost to end consumers.
• Company has undergone backward integration into Intermediates to
reduce their dependence on China for imports of basic raw material.
74 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Finance costs went up because company mostly funded their expansion with
debt. Company has been issuing commercial papers to reduce their overall
finance costs and also to repay long-term debts.
➢ Revenue: Bharat Rasayan Ltd. has grown its revenue at a CAGR of 35.66% from
last 8 years.
Net Sales
900
795
800
700
621
600
INR Cr.
➢ Bharat Rasayan Limited has been growing its sales at a CAGR around 30-40%
between 2012 and 2018
➢ The two consecutive years of FY15 & FY16 has suffered poor monsoons which
lead to decrease in sales. Also, increase in crude price impacted the revenue
growth in FY16 despite company achieved significant volume growth.
➢ Despite being exposed to vagaries of monsoon, company has been successful in
growing revenues at a tremendous growth rates in past.
➢ In Fy17, Insecticides and Fungicides molecule contribution was 50% to revenues
whereas, Intermediates and Herbicide proportion was around 20% and 30%
respectively.
➢ The top 10 products of BRL accounts for around 70% of total net sales of the
company in FY17.
75 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Revenue Breakup:
Year / Rs Cr. FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 CAGR
Domestic Sales 45 94 102 177 189 199 295
% of Total Revenue 49% 67% 55% 49% 43% 44% 48% 36.80%
Sales to Group Companies 19 18 26 64 125 127 165
% of Total Revenue 21% 13% 14% 18% 29% 28% 27% 43.37%
Exports 28 28 58 117 121 126 153
% of Total Revenue 30% 20% 31% 33% 28% 28% 25% 32.12%
76 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Fixed asset turnover of company was low in FY13 as company commercialized its
new plant at Dahej, but turnover increased gradually as capacity utilization
picked up.
➢ Company is planning further expansion with approx 200 Cr. which might result
in low asset turnover for a year or two until capacity picks up.
➢ Management has focused on using the capacity at 100% utilization level in order
to squeeze maximum revenues from asset deployed.
Cash Conversion Cycle
Year FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Receivable Days 60 55 67 49 54 63 56
Inventory Days 44 34 48 49 48 43 38
Payable Days 32 38 43 32 38 30 16
Cash Conversion Cycle 72 51 73 66 64 75 79
Source: ratestar.in
➢ The operations of the company are working capital intensive with net operating
cycle of 60-80 days primarily on account of high inventory and receivables.
➢ Company increased its Inventory in FY18 in order to secure adequate raw
material as overall supply in Industry got impacted due to shutdown of plants in
china.
➢ Although BRL receives credit period of 90 days from its suppliers, the company
makes early payments to its suppliers on account of early payment discount,
resulting in average creditor period of around 16 days.
Cash Flow: Company has a checkered history with respect to operating cash flows. As
OCF was not enough to fund the expansion, Company mainly funded it through debt
from banks and group companies.
Risks & Concerns:
Regulatory Risks: Company is also registering its molecules abroad for exports; any
changes in regulatory requirement might impact the company’s aggressive foray into
foreign markets.
77 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
VALUATIONS:
➢ At Rs 6927, Bharat Rasayan ltd trades at a:
Assumptions: -
1. Taking optimistic scenario that Net Profit will grow at 20%
2. Using an exit multiple of 20x.
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 20%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 607
Current P/E (x) 30.84
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 12136
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 3907
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2944
➢ Current market cap is below the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has not fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 15%.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 15% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 2553 Cr. less than the current market cap of 2994
Cr.
Conclusion: BRL has turned around after Dahej expansion which helped them in
increase sales manifold and operating leverage has strengthened the margins of the
company. However, company is now working towards CRAMS Business segment for
Domestic MNCs along with focus on exports which can be considered new growth
drivers of BRL.
78 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
•Excel Industries was started in 1941 under the leadership of late Mr. C.C Shroff.
1941
•Excel Crop Care demerged from Excel Industries to form an Independent Entity.
2003
79 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Business Model:
Company started off as a trading partner for global agrochemicals products. It then
transformed into a technical grade manufacturer of generic molecules in agrochemicals,
with a strong R&D backbone. Company also catered to pre & post-harvest farming, seed
treatment, and plant enhancement segments, and a few products for the fish Industry.
Excel’s Business model is quite similar to other players in Industry where company ties-
up with innovators and help them sell their products by leverage their extensive
distribution network. Company is also into manufacturing of generic molecules of some
products which caters to domestic and internal Institutional Players.
Manufacturing Facilities: The Company’s main manufacturing plant at Bhavnagar is
ISO 9002; ISO 14000 and OSHAS 18000 certified and meet statutory requirements on
quality and safety. The more recent plants at Gajod and Silvassa are equipped with state
of the art machinery and are in the process of obtaining the ISO certification. Each of
the company’s manufacturing locations has a well equipped R&D facility, which is
approved by Govt. of India, busy in exploring and reverse engineering eco-friendly
chemistries for formulations as well as for bulk products.
➢ Bhavnagar Facility: - Plant is spread over more than 75 acres of land, having
manufacturing facilities for technicals and formulations. R&D units equipped
with testing facilities for products from gram scale to field scale application are
also available at Bhavnagar facility.
• The site also manufactures Trichoderma and Pseudomonas based bio-
pesticides which demonstrate its wide range of capabilities to produce
chemical and non-chemical pesticides.
➢ Gajod Facility: - The Company employs technology involving pyrophoric
substances such as aluminum, Zinc and Phosphorous to manufacture Metallic
Phosphides. The technology to formulate, tablet and pack moisture sensitive
products like aluminum Phosphide (fumigate agent, which is also used to control
rodents and pests in grain storage facilities) has been mastered.
• Company has philosophy of preserving renewable resources, so, it has set
up on site and off site check dams for water harvesting. The site also
houses 5000 KWH solar Power Plant which currently meets 25% of Gajod
power requirement.
➢ Silvassa Facility: - The Union territory of Silvassa offers logistical advantage
for sourcing various formulation auxiliaries and packaging materials. The unit
which is spread over 3 acres of land manufactures formulations of Glyphosate
and other plant growth enhancers and adjuvant.
Exports:
‘Excel’s’ Technical Actives as well as bulk and branded formulations are presently
registered and marketed in Asia Pacific, Africa, Europe, CIS countries, Central & South
America & USA.
80 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
In the export segment, the Company expects to continue to perform well as East Africa
is expected to have good rainfall which is a key market for the company. However, in
some countries in West Africa, another major market for the Company, the Company’s
customers continue to experience currency volatility and unavailability of foreign
exchange. This could pose difficulties in growth of business in this region.
Company has Subsidiaries in Africa, Europe and Africa for increasing distribution,
registering brands and to increase the share of branded products in export market.
Year / Rs Cr. FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Bulk Sales 147 114 86 119
Y-o-y growth (%) -22% -25% 38%
Brand Sales 150 181 149 147
Y-o-y growth (%) 21% -18% -1%
Total Exports 297 295 235 266
exports as % of net sales 30% 29% 26% 27%
Source: annual report
From FY15 onwards, the weather conditions in exports market especially Brazil has not
been quite favorable which has resulted in de-growth in total export sales (both branded
and bulk). However, rainfall has been good from last two years showing some
improvement in performance. Now, with Sumitomo acquiring excel crop care, having
several branded patents, there is huge growth potential to increase penetration by
registering products in these markets.
Distribution Network:
Its range of market leading brands are made available to farmers through the chain of
more than 30+ depots, 4500+ distributors and 40000+ dealers. In-spite of such an
extensive distribution network, the company was struggling to introduce new products
through tie-ups with International Players. Management understood their technology
and financial limitations and decided to sell stake to Japan Company Sumitomo.
Acquired by Sumitomo Chemical Company
In October, 2016, Sumitomo Chemical Company, Japan acquired majority stake and
management control of Excel Crop Care Limited. Sumitomo is one of the largest global
specialty chemical producers and owns around 65% in Excel Crop Care through which it
has gained strong market reach in India.
Till FY16, Excel Crop Care faced challenges due to low innovation in its product
portfolio and the management’s limited focus on agrochemicals. The growth trajectory
was unsteady, despite its market reach and brand recall. It also faced competition from
global and domestic players in post-patent market space in terms of better efficacy
products, expansion of product categories, and pricing pressures. Now with acquisition
by Sumitomo Chemicals, following synergies are expected from this venture:
81 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
82 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Mr. Chetan Managing Mr. Chetan Shah was a promoter of New Chemi Industries
Shah Director Limited which was acquired by Sumitomo Chemical Company,
Limited, Japan (SCCL) in 2010 and integrated with Sumitomo
Chemical India Pvt. Ltd. (SCIPL). Mr. Chetan Shah served as
Joint Managing Director of SCIPL from 2010 till recently. Mr.
Shah is a commerce graduate from Mumbai University and holds
a Master’s degree in Business Administration from North Rope
University in the USA. Mr. Shah is an agrochemicals industry
veteran with over 40 years of experience.
Mr. Ninad Joint Mr. Ninad D. Gupte has long and rich experience of 41 years in
D. Gupte Managing the management of companies operating in the field of fine
Director chemicals, Performance chemicals, industrial chemicals and
agrochemicals. He is a chemical industry veteran. Mr. Gupte has
worked with Indian as well as Multinational Companies such as
Excel Industries Ltd., BASF India Ltd., Herdillia Chemicals Ltd.
(now SI International) in various senior positions.
Mr. Kiyoshi Executive Mr. Kiyoshi Takayama holds a bachelor’s degree in analytical
Takayama Director chemistry from Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto prefecture,
Japan. Mr. Kiyoshi Takayama has a rich experience of 30 years
in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries in the areas of
research and development, domestic and international sales,
supply chain and planning.
Mr. Tadashi Non- Mr. Tadashi Katayama holds a Master’s degree in Business
Katayama Executive Administration from U.S. University and also a Master’s degree
Directors from Kyoto University in Japan. He has been working with
Sumitomo, Japan since 1992 in the Health and Crop Science
business unit in various positions.
Mr. Dipesh Non- Mr. Dipesh K. Shroff holds Harvard degree in Owners/President
K. Shroff Executive Management Programme USA and Diploma in Civil
Directors Engineering, MEP - IIM, Ahmedabad. He was Managing
Director of Excel Crop Care Limited since 1st September, 2003
till 6th October, 2016. Mr. Shroff served as Joint Managing
Director of Excel Industries Ltd., until August 2003.
Dr. Mukul Independent Dr. Asher, a Professor of Public Policy at the National University
G. Asher Director of Singapore, was educated in India and USA. He has been a
consultant to several Governments in Asia on tax policy and
pension reforms, and to multilateral institutions including Asian
Development Bank, the World Bank, International Social
Security Organisation, and the World Health Organisation.
Mr. B. V. Independent Mr. B. V. Bhargava has brought an illuminating experience of
Bhargava Director Banking and Project Financing. In his career of over 40 years, he
has been associated with corporate brands such as ICICI,
Raymond etc., and is amongst the Board of Directors for CRISIL.
Mrs. Preeti Independent Mrs. Preeti Mehta, an arts and law graduate from Mumbai
Mehta Director University, is an advocate and solicitor by profession. She has
over 27 years of experience in practicing in corporate laws,
foreign investment and collaborations, mergers and acquisitions.
Source: annual reports
83 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Product Till now, Company has not been aggressive in Medium Moat
Portfolio launching innovative products, which has also
impacted company’s performance as company has lost
market share.
Distribution Though distribution reach is not one of the best in the Wide Moat
Industry, Sumitomo is in good position to leverage its
network in widening its reach in India.
84 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Financial Analysis
Excel Crop Care Ltd. has grown its Revenue at a CAGR of 6.5% from last 8 years.
Company clocks around 70% of revenue from Domestic market and 30% from exports.
Net Sales
1,400
1,150
1,200
1,026
1,000 986 968
896
779
INR Cr.
400
200
-
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Insecticides
Metal Phos. 38%
16%
Herbicides
31%
85 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Employee cost has increased as company has hired talented personnels and
changed the whole team at Managerial level which has resulted in sudden hike in
employee cost in FY17.
86 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Increase in crude oil prices: Crude derivative is a major raw material used in the
manufacturing of technicals. Any significant volatility in crude oil price might have an
adverse impact on the realizations and hence the profitability of the company.
Regulatory Risks: Company is also registering its molecules abroad for exports; any
changes in regulatory requirement might impact the company’s aggressive foray into
foreign markets.
VALUATIONS
At Rs 3223, Excel Crop Care ltd trades at a:
87 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 15%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 304
Current P/E (x) 56.45
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 6075
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 1956
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3545
➢ Current market cap is above the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 6%.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 10% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 1254 Cr. way less than current market cap of 3545
Cr.
Conclusion: Excel Crop Care limited being acquired by Sumitomo Chemical Ltd. is
poised to grow with synergies expected from the company. However, considering the
current valuation, there is not much margin of safety and looks like market has already
priced in expected growth from this merger.
88 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
UPL
Introduction:
UPL is India's biggest agrochemical company and ranks amongst the world's leading
generics companies. Started as a small-scale unit to manufacture phosphorus, the
company is today a leading global producer of crop protection products, intermediates,
specialty and other industrial chemicals.
Journey so far:
The company has a customer base in 130 countries, operates in all continents and ranks
among the top five post patent agrochemical industries in the world. Its manufacturing
operations have expanded from three units in India to 33 manufacturing units (14 in
India and 19 international) in 12 countries.
UPL is present in over 130 countries, categorized into five geographies – North America
(excluding Mexico), Europe, Latin America (including Mexico), India, and RoW (Rest of
the world). Such geographical diversification enables the company to mitigate the risk of
slowdown in a particular market.
89 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Business Model:
UPL has end-to-end process competence with a presence across the entire value chain.
This includes research & development, product development for the global markets,
registration, active ingredient manufacturing, formulation and packaging and
marketing/distribution.
UPL’s formulation plants are located around the world while its synthesis plants are
located in India, as formulation plants require lower capex while technical synthesis
plants are capex intensive. India has the advantage of 30-40% lower capex than
required for equivalent facilities in western countries.
Backward integration enables 70-75% of its manufacturing to take place in-house (50-
55% in India and 20% overseas). It imports 10-15% from China and Europe (France and
UK). China shutdown of plants impact on company was comparatively less as major
raw material is manufactured in-house by company. In-house manufacturing not only
helped to reduce dependence but also contribute to high gross margins for company. A
strong in-house R&D capability has also helped company to improve innovation rates
Index as company is continuously launching and registering new products.
Segmental Performance:
Segmental Revenue FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
(INR Cr.)
North America 1,283 1,440 1,872 2,122 2259 2612 2888 3083
Growth % 12% 30% 13% 6% 16% 11% 7%
Europe 1225 1421 1697 2016 2033 1925 2148 2305
Growth % 16% 19% 19% 1% -5% 12% 7%
Latin America 0 1985 2507 2856 3406 4273 5,396 5693
Growth % 0% 26% 14% 19% 25% 26% 6%
India 1494 1719 1784 2245 2622 2992 2963 3189
Growth % 15% 4% 26% 17% 14% -1% 8%
ROW 1896 1199 1326 1532 1770 2542 2,914 3108
Growth % -37% 11% 16% 16% 44% 15% 7%
Total 5898 7764 9186 10771 12090 14344 16309 17378
Growth % 32% 18% 17% 12% 19% 14% 7%
1. North America:
Revenue from North America has grown at a CAGR of 7% in FY18. UPL has a strong
presence in key crops of the region like rice, fruits and vegetables. Company has a
subsidiary- Riceco in North America, focusing only on rice herbicide products like
Interline, Blazer, Shutdown and Satellite. UPL Growth of 7% against the industry
growth of 3% was mainly driven by Rice herbicide portfolio as acreages which were
reduced last year, increased this year.
90 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
2. Europe
Sales in European region grew by 7% in FY18 despite the industry registering negative
growth of 2%. The company launched 4 new herbicides and 9 new insecticides in the
region. Business in Germany has witnessed decent signs of revival, while very dry
conditions prevailing in Italy and Spain have resulted in low disease pressure, thus
leading to lower use of herbicides in the region.
To support European growers and processors, the sugar sector was originally subject to
production quotas and a minimum price. However, From 30 September 2017, the EU
(European Union) has abolished the quota system for sugar. Sugar beet is a key crop for
UPL; hence, the policy changes have helped to drive UPL’s Europe revenue. Growth in
the region was primarily driven by herbicide portfolio due to increase in the acreage of
Sugar Beet crop.
UPL has diversified presence across countries in the geography, with Germany, France,
Italy, Spain, UK and Netherlands contributing over 60% of revenue. The company also
has strong presence in major corps of the geography – sugar beet, oilseeds, and fruits
(grapes and others) & vegetables. However, there exists a gap to bridge as far as cereals
are concerned.
Europe is one of the toughest markets from the perspective of registration approval. The
entire process required a total timeframe of 4-5 years; hence, UPL has already started
applying for registrations for various fungicides and herbicides focusing on cereals. The
company expects to get approvals for some of the applied registrations by FY20.
3. LATAM
The LATAM region, which contributed 33% of UPL’s overall revenue in FY18, has grown
at a CAGR of 6% in FY18 compare to LATAM market de-growth of 4% YoY. The year
started with high channel inventory in the region whereas delayed rains in North Brazil
and dry season in South Cone/ Argentina remain a cause for concern. Also, pre-
placement activities were delayed as channel partners waited for the start of the season
before placing new orders.
Tie-up with Bayer in Brazil:
According to UPL's management, Bayer has developed a product which is more effective
if used in conjunction with UPL's product Unizeb. Bayer has agreed to collaborate with
UPL and take advantage of the synergies created. The collaboration will help UPL to
increase their presence in the field and touch points with the farmers.
4. India
India sales grew by 8% in FY18. India is the second largest revenue contributor for UPL
after Latin America, contributing 18% of overall revenue as of FY18. For UPL, India is
one of the geographies, where it has presence across all crops and across all regions.
Rice pesticides contribute 25% to its revenue, cotton pesticides 31%, and fruits &
vegetables 16%.
91 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
UPL’s brands Ullala, Saaf and Phoskill have crossed a turnover of INR1b, and going
forward, its strategic focus on fruits & vegetables is expected to deliver sustainable
growth in the foreseeable future.
The company witnessed significant growth in new fungicides, Avancer Glow and
Cuprofix, which was launched last year. UPL introduced 3 new nutritional
specialty/biological products in Q4FY18 which are received well in market. Mixed
rainfall in the country, with southern states receiving less/delayed rains, has led to an
unfavorable demand environment.
5. Rest of the World (ROW)
Rest of the World (ROW) sales grew by 7% in FY18, led by double-digit growth and
improved performance in South East Asia and Africa. The major countries constituting
this geography are Australia, Turkey, Japan, Indonesia and China.
The company has grown in different countries owing to its strong distribution network.
Of late, UPL has created a regional base in Kenya, with a focus to improve its presence
in the African continent.
The company has a presence across key crops – rice across Asia; cotton, wheat and
sugarcane in South Asian countries; and pulses in Africa. The new product launches
have significantly contributed to the overall sales in the region. The company has
successfully launched two new products, Satellite and Lifeline in Turkey, while a decent
improvement in the local business in China was also evident. Dry weather in Australia
compared to last year is likely to undermine the growth prospects of the summer crop in
this region.
Product Mix:
The product mix for FY18 comprised 28% Insecticides as against 26% in FY17 while the
share of Fungicides and Herbicides stood at 28% and 32%, respectively as against 31%
and 32% in FY17.
Fungicides
28%
Herbicides
32%
92 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
60%
50%
50%
40%
30%
20%
12% 10% 10%
9%
10% 4% 4%
0%
New Products Supply Sustainability Cost Maintenance Infrastructure Others
/ Plants Security & Safety Reduction
93 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
94 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Board of Directors
Name Designation Experience
Mr. R. D. Chairman & He is a graduate in Chemistry from the Bombay University. He
Shroff Managing established a novel process of manufacturing mercury salts in a plant at
Director UK and was paid royalty for it by the British company. He mastered red
phosphorous and quickly moved on to the production of other
chemicals like aluminum Phosphide (fumigant) and zinc Phosphide
(rodenticides) for agriculture.
Mrs. S. R. Vice- Mrs. Sandra Rajnikant Shroff has been associated with Uniphos
Shroff Chairman Enterprises Ltd. (erstwhile United Phosphorus Ltd.) since its inception.
She has held various important positions in commercial, educational
and social fields.
Mr. J. R. Shroff Global CEO of Mr. Jaidev Rajnikant Shroff is a science graduate. He is Global CEO of
the Group the Group and he has worked with the Group for more than 23 years.
He has vast experience in various areas of the Group’s operations
Mr. V. R. Executive He is a Chemistry graduate from the University of Mumbai, with a
Shroff Directors professional post-graduate degree from the Harvard Business School of
Management. He is instrumental in making strategic decisions for the
company, leads many of the functions, and has been responsible for the
execution of several projects of the group.
Mr. Pradeep Independent Mr Pradeep Goyal is an engineer. He completed his BTech (Metallurgy)
Goyal Director from Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur (1978) and obtained his
SM (Materials Science and Engineering) from the world-renowned
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA, (1980).
Dr. Reena Independent A D.Sc. in Organic Chemistry (1971) from the University of Nantes
Ramachandran Director (France) and Ph. D. in Chemistry (1967), University of Allahabad, India.
Has over nine years of research experience in the field of natural
product chemistry, medicinal chemistry, textile chemistry and physical
organic chemistry.
Mr. Pradip Independent Mr. Pradip Pranjivan Madhavji, B.A., B.Com., L.L.B., serves as a
Madhavji Director Director of IDFC Asset Management Company Limited. Mr. Madhavji
has many years of experience in the fields of finance and
administration.
Mr. Hardeep Independent Mr. Hardeep Singh is BA Hons in Economics from Pune University and
Singh Director Advanced Management Programme Kellogg School of Management.
Mr. Hardeep Singh started his carrer with the Tata Group and rose
through the ranks to be Director – Agrochemicals Rallis India Limited.
During his stewardship Rallis Agrochemicals become the largest
Agrochemicals business in India with unique assets and capabilities.
Mr. Vasant P. Independent Vasant P. Gandhi is Professor at the Indian Institute of Management,
Gandhi Director Ahmedabad (IIMA). He has researched and published extensively in
the domain of agriculture and food and has been Chairman or member
of the Editorial Boards of a number of national and international
journals.
Mr. Vinod Independent He is a graduate in Chemical Engineering and also holds a BTech from
Sethi Director Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Mumbai and an MBA in Finance
from Stern School of Business, New York University. Mr Vinod Sethi
served as Managing Director of Morgan Stanley Investment
Management Inc until February 2001 and served as its Chief
Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager for 12 years
95 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Moat Analysis
Distribution Despite the dominance of existing MNCs in the key Wide Moat
markets of LATAM, Europe and North America, UPL
has been able to make significant inroads in these
markets by engaging with many large distributors with
established channel and through acquisition, giving
UPL deeper penetration for its existing brands.
96 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Financial Analysis
UPL Ltd. has grown its Revenue at a CAGR of 17% from last 8 years. Company clocks
around 20% of revenue from Domestic market and 80% from exports with branded
sales contribution of 86% of total sales.
Net Sales
20,000
17,378
18,000 16,312
16,000 14,048
14,000 12,091
12,000 10,771
10,000 9,186
7,671
8,000
5,761
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
97 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Gross profit: Company has been maintaining gross margins above 50% even in
challenging environment due to their extensive presence in manufacturing of
technical molecules.
• The management stated that the business environment in China continues
to be challenging with implementation of stringent environmental norms
and new measures on industrial safety in the chemical industry.
• The management highlighted that the company is securing its supplies
through backward integration besides migrating to strategic suppliers in
India to mitigate risks. The company is also looking at working with some
suppliers in China, who would supply RM exclusively to UPL.
➢ Operating profit has increased due to better product mix, cost rationalization
and operating efficiency in manufacturing, sourcing of raw material and
distribution.
The overall working capital cycle has remained fairly constant at 88-90 days over the
past four years despite an increase in contribution from Brazil which has a high
receivables cycle (150-180 days). The global crop protection industry has high working
capital requirements with 90-120 receivable days in the USA and 120-150 days in the
EU. But, tight working capital cycle of UPL shows strong financial discipline by the
management.
98 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Regulatory Risks: Company is also registering its molecules abroad for exports; any
changes in regulatory requirement might impact the company’s performance.
VALUATIONS
At Rs 623, UPL ltd trades at a:
➢ Let’s just calculate what growth rate the market is applying to the current stock
price by using reverse discounted cash flow (DCF).
➢ Assumptions:-Initial cash flow is 786 (average cash flow of last 3 years),
discount rate is 12% and terminal growth rate after 10 years is 4%.
➢ By doing reverse DCF with above assumptions, I found that the implied growth
rate by the market is 21%. i.e.; Market is expecting that UPL will be able to grow
their cash flow at 21% for next 10 years.
➢ If we look at the growth rate of cash flow for past 8 years, UPL has grown their
cash flow at 13%. Free cash flow= cash from operating activities minus payment
for purchase of fixed asset.
➢ Looking at the above growth rate, the implied growth rate of 21% by market is
certainly on higher side.
99 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
UPL LTD
Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 CAGR (8-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
Net Profit (Rs Cr.) 558 556 775 950 1144 940 1727 2123 21% 22%
Net Profit Margin 10% 7% 8% 9% 9% 7% 11% 12%
Return on Equity 16% 14% 16% 18% 20% 46% 24%
Source: annual report
Assumptions: -
1. Taking optimistic scenario that Net Profit will grow at 12%.
2. Using an exit multiple of 20x.
Calculations
Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 6594
Current P/E (x) 15.2
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20
Estimated Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 131874
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 42460
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 31591
➢ Current market cap is below the discounted market cap which suggests that
market has not fully discounted the optimistic growth in profits.
➢ So, if we invest at current market cap and hold for 10 years, we can earn a CAGR
of around 15%.
➢ Even if we take conservative CAGR in net profit of 8% over next 10 years,
discounted market value is Rs. 29515 Cr. Less than current market cap of 31591
Cr.
Conclusion: UPL has shown tremendous growth in last decade and is one of the
leading players in generic branded space. UPL has also been increasing market share
with consistent introduction of new products coupled with aggressive branding of
products. With significant off-patent opportunities in the coming years, presence across
countries and low income of farmers leading them to down trade to generic products,
UPL is bound to get benefited with these developments.
100 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
Scuttlebutt Finding:
I have approached few dealers and farmers in Udaipur, South Gujarat (Surat &
Ankleshwar) and in some villages of Maharashtra in order to collect information about
various pesticides used at ground level by farmers. Following are my findings of the
scuttlebutt I conducted on the agrochemical industry but there might be some errors
because of sampling bias.
1. In Udaipur, PI and Dhanuka are more active and farmers sometimes demand
products referring to their products name due to their field work. Rallis and Insecticide
India are not very active in this region. While Syngenta has became very active since last
year and their staff is often paying a visit to distributors and dealers to push sales of
their products.
➢ Distributors play a pivotal role in generating sales for the companies as the
farmers usually ask for their recommendation before buying the product.
➢ Dealers stated that they hardly buy products of Rallis India. They only buy their
products when the products of same molecule are unavailable. The only product
that has shown traction in Udaipur is Tafgor (Dimetheoate Molecule). It is highly
effective in controlling the sucking and caterpillar pests.
➢ Syngenta has done aggressive marketing over the last couple of years, but the
sales has not increased in proportionate manner due to their higher prices
compared to other available products.
➢ Bayer products are better in quality and are sold at same price compare to other
players so farmers prefer Bayer products over Syngenta.
➢ Insecticide India product Monocil used to have good sales in Udaipur but was
recently banned by Government. Management also stated that they will get hit on
their top-line due to ban on some of the products of the company.
➢ Excel Crop Care product Endosulfan was widely used but was also banned by
Government. Quality of excel products is very good but company is not very
active in approaching farmers and distributors in this region.
➢ UPL sales is also good and product named Ulala-a systemic insecticide for
controlling the sucking pests is widely sold.
➢ Profenofos Super Molecule (Used for protecting the crops and plants from any
damage caused by the insects) - products available from Syngenta, Insecticide
India, PI Industries, Excel Crop Care, etc is a popular product in Udaipur.
➢ Insecticide Products of PI Industries like SIMBAA - effective on different mites
through its contact and fumigant action on a wide range of vegetable and
plantation crops and COLT- Controls wide range of sucking, biting, chewing pests
on wide range of economically important crops widely used.
➢ Sales of products like Targa Super and Dhanzyme Gold of Dhanuka is good in
Udaipur.
➢ Overall, Insecticides and Fungicides are more sold in this region.
101 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
2. In Maharashtra, UPL is more active and make a visit once in a year. Since, these
villages are very far and small, companies rarely do field work here. Rallis and UPL- two
old companies have penetration in these regions and no listed companies are making
efforts to penetrate in these regions till now.
➢ Syngenta has also reached to these villages but same reason was given by dealers
for not much sales that prices of Syngenta products are higher than other
products and quality is almost same. Infact, they prefer selling Bayer products
because of good quality and reasonable price.
➢ Rallis old products like Tata Mida for cotton and vegetable is sold and no new
products have sales here. While UPL is active and do try to sell new products
along with old products in this region, like UPL Phoskill Monocrotophos
Insecticide is widely sold.
➢ In these regions, farmers completely depend on dealers for products and do not
have much knowledge about products and company’s name. So, basically dealers
push products to farmers based on their availability and margins.
3. In south Gujarat, herbicides are sold more. We can say that 70% sale is of herbicides
and 30% is of Insecticides. Again field work of Bayer and Syngenta is quite promising
and dealers prefer their products because of high quality.
➢ I had a Conversation with Insecticide India salesmen, he said that though
Insecticide India’s products have good sales, but it can never be good in
comparison to these MNCs because of their specialized products.
➢ Insecticide India’s “Green Label” product (same molecule as Nominee gold) is
extensively used by the farmers because of price advantage compared to Nominee
gold, both having same effectiveness – farmer prefer Green label due to low price.
➢ Insecticide India’s products have better sales than Rallis, although Rallis old
products like Rallis Panida (a pre-emergence Herbicide), Atrataf (Pre-emergence
Herbicide used for the control of annual grasses and broad leaved Weeds) and
Tata Metri (pre- and post-emergence herbicide recommended for use in Wheat,
Soybean, Potato, Tomato & Sugarcane) sales is comparatively better in
Ankleshwar side though Surat dealers don’t sell much of Rallis products.
➢ According to one distributor ( with experience of more than 50 years in this
sector) claims that their (Rallis) sales is negligible and company is not interested
in either launching new products nor doing any field work like putting efforts to
educate the farmers.
➢ Farmer demand products of Bayer, excel crop care and Monsanto by taking their
products name. Excel crop care product quality is really good and field work is
better than Insecticide India, Dhanuka and Rallis but not better than Bayer,
Syngenta and UPL. Products like Excel mera and Glycel are demanded by the
farmers.
➢ UPL has very good presence in these regions with their product like Uniquat 250
(herbicide used only for the control of a wide range of grasses and broad leaf
weeds) is demanded by farmers.
102 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
➢ Dhanuka product sales is average and Targa super sales is good in Saurashtra
(North Gujarat side of Gujarat). Their field work in south Gujarat is poor and
dealers don’t prefer their products due to same.
➢ PI field work is also not good and in south Gujarat, their products are hardly sold.
The distributors are inclined to push the products of the company which offers them
higher credit period and decent margins. The top MNCs like Bayer, UPL and Syngenta
give lesser margins to the distributors as they excel in field work. The margins of Excel
crop care are comparatively better than Bayer, UPL and Syngenta but are less than other
companies like Dhanuka, Insecticides India and PI Industries. All these companies
extend the credit period for 60-90 days but the farmers usually take a year’s time to pay
them back.
The local dealers still prefer to push the products of local players as they extend better
credit period and higher margins to them. But some distributors focus on products of
listed entities and MNCs only as their product quality is better.
According to an experienced distributor, the situation of farmers has worsened as the
young generation is not interested in farming activities. In the last decade or so, there
has been a significant rise in land value, the young generation doesn’t hesitate in selling
a piece of their land to sustain. Hardly 20%-30% farmers are still interested in farming
and are inclined towards trying out new crops on their land. These farmers prefer
quality products and generally pay on time. The other category is not serious about
improving their farm productivity. The dealers find it tough to collect their payments
from some of these farmers as well. Overall, situation isn’t rosy on the ground level,
MNCs are active in field work and focus on bring quality products to the market while
their Indian counterparts are trying to come up with specialized products but are still
finding it difficult to compete with global MNCs like Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto and
UPL.
103 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com
Indian Agrochemical Industry
References:-
1. Annual Reports and Conference call.
2. www.valuepickr.com
3. Agrochemical Knowledge report: ficci
104 http://equityunravelled.wordpress.com