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MEMORANDUM TO CLINTON SOFFER, REEVES CAMPAIGN MANAGER

FROM: Wes Anderson


DATE: February 5, 2019
RE: Results of latest survey

We completed a three-night statewide survey of 600 likely 2019 Mississippi voters on January 30,
2019 and the results indicate that this year’s marquee race starts out with significant separation
between Lt. Gov. Reeves and Attorney General Jim Hood. Reeves leads Hood in a hypothetical
matchup 51%-36% when leaners are included. The survey, geographically stratified to reflect
history voter trends, has a margin of error of +/- 3.46%.

The stark Governor’s ballot separation is driven by the fact that the Mississippi’s electorate is
satisfied both with the accomplishments of the Bryant-Reeves years and with President Trump’s
leadership in Washington. By a 2:1 margin, Mississippi voters think the state is on the right track.

Reeves and Hood have a nearly identical net image, but Hood, who had a more expensive re-
election race in 2011 than did Reeves, is better known. General Hood still enjoys a solid favorable
image rating but his unfavorable rating has crept upward since he announced his candidacy for this
partisan office. Accordingly, his ballot position is weak relative to his image. Reeves’ strength on
the ballot is driven by his 55% job approval. Notably, only 7% of Republicans disapprove of the
job Reeves is doing – indicating a unified Republican base. Among the pool of general election
voters who already have a positive opinion of both Reeves and Hood, Reeves’ lead on the ballot is
a commanding 55%-30%.

Perceptions of Hood have moved left over time; with 34% of the state now seeing him as liberal,
23% as moderate and only 12% as conservative. Reeves is labelled conservative by 43%, as
moderate by 19%, and as liberal by 7%.

A majority of the state, 53%, believes “Republicans have done a good job and should keep
control” in Jackson while only 31% say “We need the Democrats to control at least one branch of
government.” The remaining 16% say it doesn’t matter or they don’t have an opinion which party
runs the state.

Any American political campaign discussion today must also gauge President Trump’s likely
impact. His image among Mississippi voters stands at 60% favorable to 34% unfavorable – with
50% of the voters holding a “very favorable” opinion of the President. The “National Democratic
Party” is viewed favorably by only 30% of Mississippi voters. That dynamic advantages Reeves and
disadvantages Hood, as everything Democrats could do to boost base Democrat enthusiasm would
also drive base GOP enthusiasm.
IMAGE

Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Never Heard Of


Tate Reeves 39 19 27 15
Jim Hood 47 26 20 7
Donald Trump 60 34 6 0
Nat’l Dem Party 30 58 11 2

BALLOT

Voting For Leaning To


Tate Reeves 47 4
Jim Hood 34 2
Undecided 13