Mike Espy 2020 Election Autopsy

1
POST-ELECTION ANALYSIS OF
MISSISSIPPI’S 2020 SENATE
ELECTION
October 2021
BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

INTRO 2
G E N E R A L O V E R V I E W
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
DE SP I TE V ERY MO D EST
WHI LE TOTAL TURNOUT DEMS A LSO MA DE INROA DS
I NCR E ASE S IN
WAS HI GH I N 2020, WITH SO ME WHI TE VOTERS,
REGIST RAT I ON OVE RA L L ,
DEM S WERE U NABLE TO THO UGH NOT ENOUGH TO
DE MS LAG G E D B E H IN D
CLOSE TH E TURNOUT COUNTER GOP
THE G O P, LI K E LY ST IF LI N G
GAP. ENTHUSIASM.
POSS I BLE G AI NS .
Turnout in MS grew by 5pp between 2016 Both Biden & Espy, but especially Espy,
Dems have lagged behind the & 2020. While Dems did make some made gains in support among non-rural
GOP in registration since 2018, turnout gains in 2020, they were not white voters in 2020. However, these
but did so especially in the months enough to catch up to the GOP, who saw gains were not enough to overcome the
leading up to the 2020 general. a major surge in rural voters at the polls. surge of Trump voters that took to the
polls in November.
3
GENERAL OVERVIEW:
WHAT HAPPENED

INTRO 44
MS HAS BEEN A REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD OVER THE PAST DECADE. IN

2020, TRUMP WON THE TOP OF THE TICKET BY A 17pp MARGIN. IN THE
SENATE, WHILE ESPY LOST, HE EXCEEDED BIDEN’S VOTE SHARE BY 3pp.
DEM VS REP SUPPORT

2008-2020
DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN 3RD PARTY
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8%
56.0% 61.0% 55.0% 58.0% 54.0% 51.9% 57.6% 54.1%

66.4%
43.0% 39.0% 44.0% 40.0% 46.0% 46.8% 41.0% 44.1%

32.3%
2008 2011 GOV 2012 2015 GOV 2016 2018 SEN 2019 GOV 2020 PRES 2020 SEN
OBAMA DUPREE OBAMA GRAY CLINTON ESPY HOOD BIDEN ESPY
VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS
MCCAIN BRYANT ROMNEY BRYANT TRUMP HYDE-SMITH REEVES TRUMP HYDE-SMITH
(RUN-OFF)
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State
INTRO 5
PRE-GENERAL ELECTION POLLS PREDICTED A WIDE GAP IN LATE

SPRING. AS ELECTION DAY APPROACHED, POLLS TRENDED
TOWARD A TIGHTER RACE.
2020 SEN ATE S UP PO RT

A MO NG LI KE LY VOT ERS
80% DEM CANDIDATE GOP CANDIDATE OTHER/UND
60%
54%
44%
40%
20%
2%
0%
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Source: Public polling by Data for Progress, Civiqs, the Tyson Group, Garin-Hart-Yang Research, Mason-Dixon Polling, and Chism Strategies

INTRO 66
WHILE BIDEN GAINED SUPPORT IN URBAN (AND SOME

SUBURBAN) CENTERS COMPARED TO CLINTON, HE LOST GROUND
IN RURAL COUNTIES ACROSS THE STATE.
SHIFT IN TWO-WAY SUPPORT SHIFT IN TWO-WAY SUPPORT
2020 BIDEN - 2016 CLINTON 2020 BIDEN - 2012 OBAMA
Biden fail ed t o
match Obama-era
support in ru ral
TUPELO TUPELO
coun ties, but won
stron g support in
dense urban
cent ers like
Jackson and
Hattiesbu rg.
JACKSON MERIDIAN JACKSON MERIDIAN
HOW TO R EAD T HIS MAP:

The bluer th e county, the bett er
HATTIESBURG HATTIESBURG
Bid en did than C lint on, and the
opposit e fo r redder counties.
GULFPORT GULFPORT
-15% +15% Source: Mississippi Voter File

INTRO 77
IN THE SENATE, COMPARED TO BIDEN, ESPY SAW MAJOR

IMPROVEMENTS IN THE NORTH & SOUTHEAST CORNERS OF THE
STATE & LOSSES IN CENTRAL & SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
SHIFT IN TWO-WAY SUPPORT SHIFT IN TWO-WAY SUPPORT
2020 ESPY - 2020 BIDEN 2020 ESPY - 2018 ESPY
Addition all y,
Espy made
TUPELO TUPELO improvement s
across almost
every cou nt y in
the st ate
compared to his
20 18 ru n for
Senat e.
JACKSON MERIDIAN JACKSON MERIDIAN
HATTIESBURG HATTIESBURG HOW TO READ TH IS MAP:

The bluer the coun ty, the better
Espy did in 20 20 compared t o his
performance in 20 18, an d the
GULFPORT GULFPORT
opposite for redder coun ties.
-15% +15% Source: Mississippi Voter File

INTRO 88
COMPARED TO HOOD’S GUBERNATORIAL RUN IN 2019, ESPY MADE

SOME GAINS IN THE DELTA, GULF COAST, & A FEW COUNTIES IN THE
EAST, BUT SAW LOSSES IN THE REST OF THE STATE.
SHIFT IN TWO-WAY SUPPORT
2020 ESPY - 2019 HOOD
TUPELO
JACKSON MERIDIAN
HOW TO READ TH IS MAP:

HATTIESBURG
The bluer the coun ty, the better
Espy did in 2 020 than Hood did in
20 19 , and t he opposite for redder
coun ties.
GULFPORT
-15% +15%
Source: Mississippi Voter File

INTRO 99
THE 2020 VOTING ELECTORATE WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF

2016.
COMPOSITION OF VOTERS
2016 - 2020
AGE RACE
UNDER 30 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 64 65 OR OLDER AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE OTHER
2020 VOTER 18% 11% 14% 29% 28% 0% 34% 0% 65% 0%
2018 VOTER 11% 10% 15% 32% 31% 0% 33% 0% 66% 0%
2016 VOTER 13% 13% 16% 31% 26% 0% 34% 0% 66% 0%
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

RACE X EDUCATION RACE X DENSITY
WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON-COLLEGE NON-WHITE W URB W INNER W OUTER W RURAL NON W
2020 VOTER 12% 53% 35% 0%

6% 25% 34% 35%
2018 VOTER 13% 53% 34% 0%

6% 26% 34% 34%
2016 VOTER 13% 53% 34% 0%

6% 26% 34% 35%
0 Source: Mississippi
0.25Voter File 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

10
WHAT HAPPENED:
VOTER REGISTRATION

R E G I S T R AT I O N 11
V O T E R R E G I S T R A T I O N
COVID-19 DID NOT SEEM TO STIFLE MISSISSIPPI’S REGISTRATION

GROWTH. WEEKLY REGISTRATION TOTALS LEADING UP TO THE REG
DEADLINE SHOWED NO DECLINE COMPARED TO 2016.
REGISTRATION TRENDS BY WEEK

2016 New Registrations 2020 New Registrations
35K
MS Voter Reg
Deadline
26K
18K
9K
0K
Week 13 Week 12 Week 11 Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Week 3 Week 2 Week 1

2
HOWEVER COMPARED TO OTHER STATES, REGISTRATION IN MS

ONLY GREW VERY MODESTLY (<1%) FROM 2016 TO 2020. GA SAW
DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH (12%) GROWTH OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
TOTAL GEORGIA REGISTERED VOTERS TOTAL MISSISSIPPI REGISTERED VOTERS

BY ELECTION CYCLE BY ELECTION CYCLE
+904K (+12%)
+633K (+8%)
7.77M
6.92M +5K (+<1%)
6.59M
+31K (+1%)
2.08M 2.05M 2.08M
2016 2018 2020 2016 2018 2020


3
B L A C K V O T E R S I N M I S S I S S I P P I
DEMS WERE ALSO PLAYING CATCHUP WITH REGISTRATION: MS

SAW A 40K DROP IN BLACK REG VOTERS BETWEEN ’16 AND ’18.
NEW REG BETWEEN ’18 AND ’20 ADDED 20K BACK TO THE FILE.
TOTAL BLACK REGISTERED VOTERS

BY ELECTION CYCLE
-20K (-2%)
+19K (+2%)
799K 760K 780K
2016 2018 2020


4
DEMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLOSE THE GAP IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE

2018. THIS GAP WAS WIDEST IN THE FEW MONTHS LEADING UP
TO THE 2020 GENERAL.
TOTAL NEW REG BY MONTH SINCE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL
CURRENT REG VOTERS ON FILE
MODELED BIDEN SUPPORTERS MODELED TRUMP SUPPORTERS
25K
2018 MID. CYCLE 2020 PRES. CYCLE
19K
13K
6K
0K
2016-11
2017-01
2017-03
2017-05
2017-07
2017-09
2017-11
2018-01
2018-03
2018-05
2018-07
2018-09
2018-11
2019-01
2019-03
2019-05
2019-07
2019-09
2019-11
2020-01
2020-03
2020-05
2020-07
2020-09
2020-11
2021-01
2021-03
2021-05

5
THERE WERE ALMOST A QUARTER MORE NEW REGISTRANTS AFTER

2016 THAN BEFORE. THESE NEW REGISTRANTS WERE SLIGHTLY
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF DEMOCRATS THAN THOSE FROM 2016.
E ST. DE M VS RE P S UPPORT
AL L N EW R EG I N 2 01 6 & 202 0
Pl ease n ote :
In th e following slides,
we use 2016 425K
partisa ns hip modeling
as a ba selin e fo r 332K
support. We use t his as
53%
a baseline metric in
order to assess B iden 54%
and Espy ’s ability to
p ersuade voters from
that ba se betwe en ’16 47%
46%
and ’20. *New registered voters are defined by
voters who registered within the past
four years of the given election, i.e.
2016 NEW 2020 NEW
since 2012 for the 2016 race, and
REG* REG*
2016 for the 2020 race.

6
DESPITE CLOSING THE GAP A BIT, DEMOCRATIC NEW REG TURNED

OUT AT LOWER RATES THAN REPUBLICAN NEW REG.
2016 VS 2020 TURNOUT NEW REG 2016 VS 2020 TURNOUT NEW REG
MODELED CLINTON SUPPORTERS MODELED TRUMP SUPPORTERS
2016 GENERAL TURNOUT
+5pp +4pp
58% 62%
48% 53%

MS SAW MORE YOUNG, POC NEW REG IN 2020, BUT THIS GAIN WAS
SMALL IN TOTAL NUMBERS AND THERE WERE STILL A FAIR NUMBER
OF TRUMP SUPPORTIVE NEW REG AS WELL.
COMPOSITION OF NEW REGISTERED VOTERS*
BY ELECTION YEAR
AGE RACE/ETHNICITY
UNDER 30 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 64 65 OR OLDER AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE
2020 NEW REG 65% 10% 7% 11% 7% 1% 38% 2% 59%
2018 NEW REG 51% 13% 11% 16% 9% 1% 33% 1% 65%
2016 NEW REG 49% 13% 13% 17% 9% 1% 35% 1% 63%
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON-COLLEGE NON-WHITE W URB W INNER W OUTER W RURAL NON W
2020 NEW REG 11% 48% 41% 0%

7% 25% 26% 41%
2018 NEW REG 14% 51% 35% 0%

8% 27% 29% 35%
2016 NEW REG 14% 49% 37% 0%

8% 26% 28% 37%
0
0*New registered0.25
voters are defined
0.5 by voters who 0.75
registered within the
1 past four years of0.25 0.5
the given election, i.e. since 20120.75
for the 2016 1
race; 2014 for the 2018 race, and 2016 for the 2020 race.

18
W H A T H A P P E N E D : V O T E R R E G I S T R A T I O N
REGISTRATION TAKEAWAYS
DE SPITE BETTER REGIST RATION TH AN IN 2016, MISSISSIPPI SAW VERY MODEST GROWTH IN
REGISTRATION BETWEE N 20 1 6 AN D 2020 COM PAR ED TO OTHER SOUTHERN STATES.
DE MOCRATS ARE AT A D ISADVA NTAGE W HEN IT COMES TO REGISTRATION. SINCE 2016, DEMS
HAV E L AGGED BEHIN D T HE GOP IN REGISTR ATION, L IKELY COSTING DEMS 25K+ POTENTIAL
VOTES.
MISSISSIPPI SAW A T RU MP SURGE IN 2020. W HIL E NEW R EGISTRANTS IN 2020 WERE YOUNGER,
AND LESS WHI TE THAN NE W REGISTRA NTS IN PAST CYCLES, THERE WERE ALSO A SIGNIFICANT
NUMBER OF WHITE NON -COLLEGE REGISTR AN TS, CONTRIBUTING TO GAINS FOR REPUBLICANS IN
TH E STATE.

19
WHAT HAPPENED:
TURNOUT

TURNOUT 220
0
T U R N O U T
A KEY TO ESPY’S CLOSE RESULT IN 2018 WAS CLOSING THE

TURNOUT GAP BETWEEN BLACK AND WHITE VOTERS, AND DEMS
AND REPS. IN 2020 HE HAD TO BUILD ON THAT.
In past election cycles, white voter turnout has consistently exceeded Black voter turnout—even with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Our
estimate is that Espy outperformed a baseline Democrat by 6% based on closing this gap.
RACIAL TURNOUT GAP SINCE 2008
0%
Black Turnout Minus White
-2%
-3%
-2%
-6% -6%
-8% The Black turnout rate was much
-8%
Turnout
-5% -9% closer to the white turnout rate in

the runoff than it was in the
General, helping Espy’s vote
-8%
share grow.
-10%
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2018
General General General General General General Runoff
Had Espy closed the gap in the 2018 run-off, he would have increased his vote share to 48.9% of the vote.
TURNOUT 221
1
T U R N O U T
RAW TURNOUT IN 2020 WAS HIGHER, SURPASSING 2016

TURNOUT BY 100K+ VOTES, A COUNT LARGER THAN THE TOTALS
GAINED BY NEW REGISTRANTS ALONE.
TURNOUT BY PRESIDENTIAL YEAR
Voted Reg Didn't Vote
1.29M 1.29M 1.21M 1.31M

0.99M 1.15M
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

TURNOUT 222
2
T U R N O U T
HOWEVER, TURNOUT INCREASED FOR DEMOCRATS AND EVEN

MORE SO FOR REPUBLICANS, MEANING THAT DEMOCRATS COULD
NOT CLOSE THE TURNOUT GAP.
2016 VS 2020 TURNOUT PREV REG 2016 VS 2020 TURNOUT PREV REG
2016 GENERAL TURNOUT 2016 GENERAL TURNOUT
2020 -
2016 +4pp +6pp
For com parisons

to 2018 see
ap pendix
70%
64%
55% 59%

TURNOUT 223
3
T U R N O U T
AND WHILE BLACK TURNOUT DID INCREASE IN 2020, AND CLOSED

THE GAP A BIT, WHITE TURNOUT WAS STILL 10pp HIGHER.
TURNOUT FOR PREV REG VOTERS

2016 VS 2020
2020 -
2016 +10pp +6pp +6pp +4pp
65% 69%
59%
53%
44%
34% 36%
30%
AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE

% ’20
<1% 37% <1% 61%
VTRS
TURNOUT 224
4
T U R N O U T
THE WHITE TURNOUT SURGE WAS DRIVEN BY WHITE REPUBLICANS.

BLACK DEMS SURGED IN TURNOUT, BUT WHITE DEMS STAGNATED.
2020 -
2016 +9pp +5pp +5pp -1pp +12pp +3pp +6pp +4pp
68% 72%
54% 59% 59% 58%
51% 54%
48%
41% 36% 39%
32% 28% 33% 33%
AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE

% ’20
<1% 30% <1% 13% <1% 4% <1% 53%
VTRS

TURNOUT 225
5
T U R N O U T
AMONG WHITE VOTERS WHO WERE ALREADY ON FILE, TURNOUT

INCREASES GOT LARGER IN MORE RURAL AREAS.

2016 VS 2020
2020 -
2016 -3pp +2pp +3pp +5pp
67% 68% 73%

64%
54% 56%
28% 25%
W - URBAN W - INNER W - OUTER W - RURAL

RING RING
% ’20
<1% 5% 25% 35%
VTRS
TURNOUT 226
6
T U R N O U T
WHITE RURAL REPUBLICANS SURGED TO THE POLLS WHILE WHITE

DEMS STAGNATED IN 2020, COUNTERING DEM GAINS ELSEWHERE.
2016 TURNOUT 2016 TURNOUT
2020 -
2016
-1pp +0pp +0pp -2pp -7pp +2pp +4pp +6pp
70% 70% 76%

64% 62% 66%
58% 58% 58% 60%
47% 47%
36%
29%
23% 22%
WHITE WHITE SUB WHITE SUB WHITE WHITE WHITE SUB WHITE SUB WHITE
URBAN INNER OUTER RURAL URBAN INNER OUTER RURAL
% ’20
<1% 1% 5% 6% <1% 4% 20% 29%
VTRS

 
 
 
 

TURNOUT 227
7
T U R N O U T
BY EDUCATION, DEMS WERE ALSO UNABLE TO OFFSET ANY GOP GAINS

DUE TO BOTH WHITE COLL AND NON-COLL REPUBLICANS, WHO WERE
ABLE TO INCREASE THEIR ALREADY HIGH TURNOUT.
2020 -
2016 -1pp -1pp +1pp +5pp
77% 78%
68% 67% 66% 71%
57% 56%
WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON COLLEGE WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON COLLEGE
% ’20
3% 10% 10% 43%
VTRS

TURNOUT 228
8
T U R N O U T
IN MANY OTHER STATES, BIG EARLY VOTE HELPED BANK A TON OF

DEMOCRATIC VOTES. WHILE MISSISSIPPI ALSO SAW MORE
DEMOCRATS VOTE EARLY IN 2020 THAN 2016…
2016 PRESIDENTIAL 2020 PRESIDENTIAL

Acros s th e cou ntry, early
RACE RACE
voting was the preferred
meth od for Demo crats to
cas t th eir ballo t in 2020.
While we did see slight
increa ses in early v oting in Republica ns beca me
54%
2020 co mpared to 2016, sl ightly more likel y t o vote
57%
Mississippi’s lack o f vot ing on El ection Da y compare d
accomm odat ions in to 2016 (+3pp), while
re spons e to COVID-19 Democrats s urged to vot e
likely deterred som e early (+10pp), whether in
De mocrats from tu rning pers on or b y mail .
out in th e No vember 46% 43% 37%
general.
47% 63%
53%
EDAY AVEV EDAY AVEV
Source: MIT Survey of the Performance of American Elections

TURNOUT 229
9
T U R N O U T
…WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN ELECTION LAW, UNLIKE

OTHER STATES, MISSISSIPPI’S ABSENTEE VOTING RATE ROSE ONLY
MODESTLY DURING THE PANDEMIC.
G E O R G I A VOT E M ETHO DS MIS SISSI PPI VOTE METHODS

2016 - 2020 2016 - 2020
E-Day AVEV E-Day AVEV
4.9M
1.3M
1.2M MS’ El ection
3.9M Da y
9% 22%
proportion of
the voting
80% ele ctorate
59%
was t he
91% highest of
78%
any state in
2020.
41%
20%
2016 2020 2016 2020

30
W H A T H A P P E N E D : T U R N O U T
TURNOUT TAKEAWAYS
SIMIL ARLY TO RE GISTRAT ION, DEMOCRATS ARE AT A DISADVANTAGE WHEN IT COMES TO
TU RNOUT. WHI LE NEW AND EXISTING DEMS EXCEEDED THEIR 2016 TURNOUT RATES, DEMOCRATS
WERE UN ABL E TO CLOSE TH E TURNOUT GAP.
EARLY VOTIN G WA S A N ESSE NTIAL COMPONENT OF DEM WINS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
HO WEVER, DUE TO MISSISSIPPI’S LACK OF COVID-19 VOTING ACCOMMODATIONS, DEMS DID NOT
SEE SIMI LA R GA INS IN TH E STATE.
WHIL E BOTH BLACK A ND WH ITE VOTERS TURNED OUT AT HIGHER RATES IN 2020, THE WHITE
TU RNOUT SURGE BE NEFIT TE D REPUBLICANS. WHITE DEM S STAGNATED AT THE POLLS COMPARED
TO 2016, WH ILE WHITE RURAL TRUMP SUPPORTERS SURGED. IN A WOR L D IN W HICH W E NE E DE D
ALL THE BREA KS, TH IS T RUMP SURGE MADE THE M ATH VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

31
WHAT HAPPENED:
SUPPORT

332
2
'12 P '16 P '18 S '19 G '20 P '20 S

S U P P O R T
PATH TO VICTORY SCENARIO #3

(SUPPORT CHANGE ONLY) (SUPPORT + COMPOSITION CHANGE)
49%
48%
47%
46%
45%
Black Share of Electorate

Black Share of Electorate
44%
43% Espy can also

42%
41%
win by taking a
40% m o re b a l a n c e d
a p p ro a c h o f
39%
Espy can win by 38%
winning new 37% i n c rea s i n g t h e

s u p p o rt f ro m B l a c k s h a re o f
36%
35%
white voters by 34% t h e e l e c t o rat e t o

i n c rea s i n g 36% and white
33%
32%
s u p p o rt t o 2 8 % 31% s u p p o rt t o 2 3 % .
30%
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48%
White Support White Support

SUPPORT 334
4
BOTH BIDEN & ESPY BUILT ON GAINS IN URBAN PRECINCTS, AND

DEMS CONTINUE TO GAIN GROUND WITH WHITE SUBURBAN
VOTERS. ESPY OUTPERFORMED BIDEN & HIS 2018 RUN.
DEM VOTE SHARE BY DEMO COMPOSITION
'12 P '16 P '18 S '19 G '20 P '20 S

SUPPORT
S U P P O R T
ESPY VS BIDEN
BY PRECINCT DEM SHIFT
ESPY 2018 ESPY 2020 BIDEN 2020
63% 61%
59%
46% 49% 47%
40% 44% 42% 41% 44% 41% 43%
38% 37%
LEAN OBAMA-TRUMP STABLE LEAN CLINTON-ROMNEY STRONG CLINTON-ROMNEY

(SHIFT < -15%) (SHIFT -15% - -5%) (SHIFT -5% - 5%) (SHIFT 5% - 15%) (SHIFT >15%)
SUPPORT 38
S U P P O R T
ESPY’S OVER PERFORMANCE WAS CONCENTRATED IN NON-

COLLEGE EDUCATED WHITE COUNTIES, SUGGESTING OVER
PERFORMANCE WAS DUE TO A LESS EDUCATIONALLY-POLARIZED
POLITICAL APPEAL.
COMPOSITION OF REGISTERED VOTERS IN TRUMP-ESPY COUNTIES

BY ESPY - BIDEN MARGIN
WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON-COLLEGE NON-WHITE
3.5+pp OVER BIDEN 3% 47% 50%
2.5 - 3.5 pp OVER BIDEN 12% 43% 45%
0Source: Mississippi Voter File 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
SUPPORT 39
T R U M P - E S P Y C O U N T I E S
ESPY BROKE THROUGH IN THREE COUNTIES THAT VOTED FOR

TRUMP AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET. THIS WAS LARGELY DUE TO
THEIR DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION.
TR UM P - E SPY CO UN TIE S
Th e c ou nt ies t h at Esp y w as
PANOLA
(REG. 23,011) ab l e to fl ip w ere sma ll ,
CHICKASAW r ural , and h a d ra ci al
(REG. 17,193)
co mpo sit io ns th at
sug gest ed t hat t he y w ou ld
LOWNDES
(REG. 40,362)
b e c omp eti ti ve. Espy was
ab l e to fl ip t h em b eca use of
t he co un ti es’ sub st ant ia l
b ase of Bla ck vot er s, al on g
w it h Espy’s over
pe rfo r man ce w it h no n-
co l l ege w h it e vo t er s
co mpa red t o Bid en .
SUPPORT 40
VOTERS IN THESE COUNTIES SUPPORTED LOCAL DEMS, ESPY &

HOOD, BUT THAT SUPPORT DID NOT TRANSLATE TO THE TOP OF
THE TICKET FOR CLINTON & BIDEN.
DEM VS REP SUPPORT
2016-2020
DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN 3RD PARTY
CHICKASAW LOWNDES PANOLA
0.8% 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4%
38.3% 44.8%
52.3% 48.8% 51.3% 48.0% 48.7% 50.6% 50.7% 47.8% 49.4% 48.1% 51.6% 47.6%
51.6%
61.0% 55.2%
46.2% 51.2% 46.8% 50.7% 46.0% 51.3% 48.6% 48.0% 50.9% 49.3% 50.6% 47.4% 51.0%
2016 2018 2019 2020 2020 2016 2018 2019 2020 2020 2016 2018 2019 2020 2020
PRES SEN GOV PRES SEN PRES SEN GOV PRES SEN PRES SEN GOV PRES SEN
CLINTON ESPY HOOD BIDEN ESPY CLINTON ESPY HOOD BIDEN ESPY CLINTON ESPY HOOD BIDEN ESPY
VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS VS
TRUMP HYDE-SMITH REEVES TRUMP HYDE-SMITH TRUMP HYDE-SMITH REEVES TRUMP HYDE-SMITH TRUMP HYDE-SMITH REEVES TRUMP HYDE-SMITH
(RUN-OFF) (RUN-OFF) (RUN-OFF)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

SUPPORT 41
THE ELECTORATE IN THESE COUNTIES REMAINED SUBSTANTIALLY

BLACK, AND BECAME BOTH YOUNGER & OLDER. THERE WAS ALSO
A SMALL INCREASE IN WHITE COLLEGE VOTERS.
COMPOSITION OF VOTERS IN TRUMP-ESPY COUNTIES
2016 - 2020
AGE RACE/ETHNICITY
UNDER 30 30 - 39 40 - 49 50 - 64 65 OR OLDER AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE
2020 18% 11% 14% 30% 28% 0% 44% 0% 56%
2018 11% 10% 15% 34% 30% 0% 41% 0% 59%
2016 14% 13% 16% 32% 25% 0% 43% 0% 57%
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

W COLL W NON COLL NOT W W URBN W INNER W OUTER W RURAL NOT W
2020 9% 48% 44% 0% 24% 31% 44%
2018 10% 49% 41% 0% 26% 32% 41%
2016 10% 47% 43% 0% 25% 31% 43%
0Source: Mississippi
0.25Voter File 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

42
W H A T H A P P E N E D : S U P P O R T
SUPPORT TAKEAWAYS
ES PY DID A LOT TO INCREA SE SUPPORT—HE SAW LESS EDUCATION POLARIZATION (IMPROVING
WITH N ON -COL LE GE WHITE S) AND HE MADE BIGGER GAINS THAN BIDEN WITH FRIENDLIER
GROUPS (L IKE COLLE GE WHITES AND SUBURBAN VOTERS), BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO
WIN, ESPECI ALLY GIVE N TH E REGISTRATION AND TUR NOUT GAPS THAT DEMS FACE IN THE STATE.
IN WHITE COUNTI ES, BOT H B IDEN AND ESPY MADE GAINS IN URBAN COUNTIES COMPARED TO
CLIN TON , BUT T HE Y WOU LD HAVE BENEFITTED F ROM HOOD-ERA SUPPORT IN SUBURBAN
COUN TI ES.
ES PY WA S A BL E TO B REA K T HROUGH THREE TRU MP COUNTIES DUE TO HIS SLIGHT INCREASE WITH
WHITES BEI NG ENOU GH TO P USH HIM OVER IN COUNTIES WITH STRONG BLACK
CONCENTRATI ONS. T HE SE COUNTIE S HAVE SU PPORTED LOCAL DEMS BUT THIS SUPPORT HAS NOT
TRANSL ATED TO TOP-OF-T ICK ET DEMS LIKE CLINTON AND BIDEN.

43
LOOKING TOWARD THE FUTURE

44
W I N N I N G I N M S
TAKEAWAYS FROM 2020

OU R INI TI AL PAT H TO VICTORY ANALYSIS STILL STANDS—WINNING IN MISSISSIPPI REQUIRES BOTH
A BI G IN CREASE I N SU PP ORT (WHICH WE GOT PART OF BUT NOT ALL OF) AND A MAJOR INCREASE
IN TURNOUT (WH ICH WAS U NFORTUNATELY OFF SET BY A TRUMP SURGE THIS CYCLE).
IN THE 201 8 RACE WE SAW THAT A BIG TURNOUT SURGE WITHOUT A TON OF INCREASED
SU PPORT DOE S NOT DO E NOUGH TO WIN. IN 2019 WE SAW THAT A BIG INCREASE IN THE SHARE
OF THE WHI TE VOT E ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH EITHER.
TO WI N, WE NEED TO PUT THESE FACTORS TOGETHER . R EGIST R AT ION T R E NDS P OINT TO AN

UNDERLYIN G RE PU BLICA N PARTISANSHIP THAT CAN BE OVERCOME IN THE RIGHT CYCLE.
HO WEVER EV EN I N TH AT CA SE WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO JUICE BLACK TURNOUT TO RECORD
LEVELS AND EROD E T HE ED UCATION POLARIZATION W HIL E BUILDING ON DEMOCRATIC GAINS.

45
APPENDIX

INTRO
COVID
HEALTHCARE
JOBS & ECONOMY
CRIME / POLICING
SCHOOLS
SUPREME COURT
CIVIL/VOTING RIGHTS
PROTESTING
CHINA
TAXES
IMMIGRATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
MILITARY / VETS
WOMEN'S RIGHTS
OIL & FRACKING

BBC NEWS
TOTAL CHYRON MENTIONS
PELOSI
FOX NEWS
I M P A C T
RADICAL LIBERALISM
O F
COVID
HEALTHCARE
JOBS & ECONOMY

C O V I D - 1 9
CRIME / POLICING
SCHOOLS
SUPREME COURT
CIVIL/VOTING RIGHTS
PROTESTING
EDGED IT OUT ON FOX NEWS.
CHINA
TAXES
IMMIGRATION
CLIMATE CHANGE
TERRORISM
MILITARY / VETS
WOMEN'S RIGHTS
OIL & FRACKING

IN THE FINAL MONTHS OF THE CYCLE, COVID DOMINATED
PELOSI
MSNBC NEWS
CNN NEWS

RADICAL LIBERALISM
ACROSS MOST NATIONAL CHANNELS, BUT THE SUPREME COURT
46
INTRO 47
I M P A C T O F C O V I D - 1 9
SIMILAR TO THE NATIONAL DISCOURSE, COVID WAS ALSO A TOP

ISSUE FOR VOTERS IN MISSISSIPPI. OTHER CORE ISSUES FOR
MISSISSIPPIANS INCLUDED HEALTHCARE & THE ECONOMY.
M O ST I M PO RTAN T I S SUE FO R VOTE RS
NOV POLL DEC POLL
33%
31%
29%
24%
15%
12%
9% 10% 9% 10%
6% 6%
3% 4%
0% 0% 0% 0%
CLIMATE SOCIAL/ ECONOMY SUPREME COVID-19 HEALTHCARE OTHER IMMIGRATION LAW & ORDER
CHANGE RACIAL JUST COURT
Source: RMG research (Nov) and Emerson College (Dec) polls
 

TURNOUT 48
B L A C K V O T E R S I N M I S S I S S I P P I
BLACK VOTERS TURNED OUT AT A HIGHER RATE IN 2020 THAN IN

2016.
TURNOUT FOR BLACK REGISTERED

VOTERS
2016 VS 2020
+6pp
57%
51%
2016 BLACK REG 2020 BLACK REG

TURNOUT 449
9
T U R N O U T
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN ELECTION LAW, MISSISSIPPI’S

ABSENTEE VOTING RATE ROSE ONLY MODESTLY DURING THE
PANDEMIC.
MI SSI SS IP P I VOTE M ETHOD S

2016 - 2020
E-Day AVEV
1.3M
1.2M
9% 22%
91%
78%
2016 2020

0
T U R N O U T
NEW REG IN 2020 EXCEEDED THEIR 2016 TURNOUT RATE BY 5pp.
TURNOUT FOR NEWLY REGISTERED

VOTERS
2016 VS 2020
+5pp
58%
53%
2016 NEW REG 2020 NEW REG

TURNOUT 551
1
T U R N O U T
PREVIOUSLY REGISTERED VOTERS ALSO TURNED OUT AT A

HIGHER RATE IN 2020 THAN THEY DID IN 2016.
TURNOUT FOR PREVIOUSLY REGISTERED

VOTERS
2016 VS 2020
+6pp
59% 64%
2016 PREVIOUSLY REG 2020 PREVIOULY REG

TURNOUT 552
2
T U R N O U T
TURNOUT VS. 2018 INCREASED SLIGHTLY MORE FOR DEMOCRATS

BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MEANINGFULLY CLOSE THE TURNOUT GAP.
2020 -
2018 +15pp +14pp
70%
59% 56%
44%

TURNOUT 553
3
T U R N O U T
COMPARED TO 2018 BLACK TURNOUT DID INCREASE RELATIVE TO

WHITE TURNOUT, MAINTAINING SAME GAP AS ESPY’S FIRST RATCE.

2018 VS 2020
2020 -
2018 +24pp +14pp +14pp +15pp
69%
59% 54%
44% 45%
36%
25% 22%
AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE

% ’20
<1% 37% <1% 61%
VTRS
TURNOUT 554
4
T U R N O U T
IMPROVEMENTS SINCE 2018 WERE PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY

RELATIVELY BETTER TURNOUT OF WHITE DEMS BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO CLOSE THE TURNOUT GAP.
2020 -
2018 +20pp +13pp +14pp +16pp +19pp +15pp +13pp +13pp
72%
59% 58% 59%
54%
46% 42% 48%
41% 39% 39%
33% 29%
21% 26%
19%
AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE AAPI BLACK LATINX WHITE

% ’20
<1% 30% <1% 13% <1% 4% <1% 53%
VTRS

TURNOUT 555
5
T U R N O U T
AS IN THE 2016 COMPARISONS, COMPARED TO 2018, TURNOUT

INCREASES GOT LARGER IN MORE RURAL AREAS.

2018 VS 2020
2020 -
2018 +4pp +12pp +13pp +17pp
67% 73%
56% 54% 56%
44%
21% 25%
W - URBAN W - INNER W - OUTER W - RURAL

RING RING
% ’20
<1% 5% 25% 35%
VTRS
TURNOUT 556
6
T U R N O U T
WHITE DEM INCREASES FROM ’18 TO ‘20 WERE EVEN ACROSS THE
BOARD WHILE AMONG REPUBLICANS, WHITE RURAL REPS SAW THE
BIGGEST GAINS.
2020 -
2018
+5pp +15pp +17pp +16pp +2pp +9pp +11pp +16pp
70% 76%
58% 62% 60% 59% 60%
47% 46% 51%
41%
32% 27% 29%
17% 22%
WHITE WHITE SUB WHITE SUB WHITE WHITE WHITE SUB WHITE SUB WHITE
URBAN INNER OUTER RURAL URBAN INNER OUTER RURAL
% ’20
<1% 1% 5% 6% <1% 4% 20% 29%
VTRS

 
 
 
 

TURNOUT 557
7
T U R N O U T
BY EDUCATION, REPUBLICANS NON-COLLEGE GREW MORE COMPARED

TO 2018 THAN REPUBLICAN COLLEGE WHILE DEMS TURNOUT
INCREASES WERE EVEN ACROSS EDUCATION.
2020 -
2018 +14pp +15pp +11pp +14pp
78%
67% 67% 71%
53% 56% 57%
41%
WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON COLLEGE WHITE COLLEGE WHITE NON COLLEGE
% ’20
3% 10% 10% 43%
VTRS

58
QUESTIONS?
C O N T A C T U S
cecia .soz a@bluelabs .co m
jeremy.c ohen@bluel abs.c om
har riso n.krei sberg @bl ue la bs. com

Mike Espy 2020 Election Autopsy

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BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

MS HAS BEEN A REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD OVER THE PAST DECADE. IN

DEM VS REP SUPPORT

1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8%

56.0% 61.0% 55.0% 58.0% 54.0% 51.9% 57.6% 54.1%

43.0% 39.0% 44.0% 40.0% 46.0% 46.8% 41.0% 44.1%

Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

PRE-GENERAL ELECTION POLLS PREDICTED A WIDE GAP IN LATE

2020 SEN ATE S UP PO RT

WHILE BIDEN GAINED SUPPORT IN URBAN (AND SOME

JACKSON MERIDIAN JACKSON MERIDIAN

HOW TO R EAD T HIS MAP:

-15% +15% Source: Mississippi Voter File

IN THE SENATE, COMPARED TO BIDEN, ESPY SAW MAJOR

JACKSON MERIDIAN JACKSON MERIDIAN

HATTIESBURG HATTIESBURG HOW TO READ TH IS MAP:

-15% +15% Source: Mississippi Voter File

COMPARED TO HOOD’S GUBERNATORIAL RUN IN 2019, ESPY MADE

HOW TO READ TH IS MAP:

Source: Mississippi Voter File

THE 2020 VOTING ELECTORATE WAS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF

2020 VOTER 18% 11% 14% 29% 28% 0% 34% 0% 65% 0%

2018 VOTER 11% 10% 15% 32% 31% 0% 33% 0% 66% 0%

2016 VOTER 13% 13% 16% 31% 26% 0% 34% 0% 66% 0%

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

2020 VOTER 12% 53% 35% 0%

2018 VOTER 13% 53% 34% 0%

2016 VOTER 13% 53% 34% 0%

BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

COVID-19 DID NOT SEEM TO STIFLE MISSISSIPPI’S REGISTRATION

REGISTRATION TRENDS BY WEEK

Source: Mississippi Voter File

HOWEVER COMPARED TO OTHER STATES, REGISTRATION IN MS

TOTAL GEORGIA REGISTERED VOTERS TOTAL MISSISSIPPI REGISTERED VOTERS

2.08M 2.05M 2.08M

2016 2018 2020 2016 2018 2020

DEMS WERE ALSO PLAYING CATCHUP WITH REGISTRATION: MS

TOTAL BLACK REGISTERED VOTERS

799K 760K 780K

2016 2018 2020

DEMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO CLOSE THE GAP IN MISSISSIPPI SINCE

THERE WERE ALMOST A QUARTER MORE NEW REGISTRANTS AFTER

Source: Mississippi Voter File

DESPITE CLOSING THE GAP A BIT, DEMOCRATIC NEW REG TURNED

Source: Mississippi Voter File

2020 NEW REG 65% 10% 7% 11% 7% 1% 38% 2% 59%

2018 NEW REG 51% 13% 11% 16% 9% 1% 33% 1% 65%

2016 NEW REG 49% 13% 13% 17% 9% 1% 35% 1% 63%

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

2020 NEW REG 11% 48% 41% 0%

2018 NEW REG 14% 51% 35% 0%

2016 NEW REG 14% 49% 37% 0%

BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

BlueLabs | Test Everything, Change Behavior, Drive Results. bluelabs.com

A KEY TO ESPY’S CLOSE RESULT IN 2018 WAS CLOSING THE

RACIAL TURNOUT GAP SINCE 2008

-5% -9% closer to the white turnout rate in

RAW TURNOUT IN 2020 WAS HIGHER, SURPASSING 2016

TURNOUT BY PRESIDENTIAL YEAR

Voted Reg Didn't Vote

1.29M 1.29M 1.21M 1.31M