Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Belgium

from January 2017 to January 2019

Veronica Rose G. Garcia, BSIT 1-B

The Consumer Price Index is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of
a basket of consumer goods, and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is
calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and
averaging them.
Belgian Consumer Price Index (CPI) (commonly referred to as The Index) is a list of prices
of goods and services, kept by the Belgian Federal Public Service Economy. The Index is updated
on a monthly basis, and reflects the evolution in the cost of living. The dataset is retrieved from
https://www.statista.com/statistics/529898/monthly-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-belgium/.
This report is designed to determine the future monthly consumer price (CPI) in Belgium.
The dataset of Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Belgium from January 2017 to
January 2019 has 25 observations. Figure 1 illustrates the monthly consumer price index in
Belgium from January 2017 to January 2019. It shows that from January 2017 to January 2019,
there is a rise in the monthly consumer price index. The rise is clearly showing that there is an
upward trend.

Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Belgium

from January 2017 to January 2019
109
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101

Consumer Price Index Linear (Consumer Price Index)

Figure 1. Monthly Consumer Price Index from January 2017 to January 2019

Table 1 shows the results of the different forecasting results. MA2 (Two-Period Moving
Average) has a MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) of 0.29, MSE (Mean Squared Error) of 0.11, MAPE
(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 0.0027650; MA3 (Three-Period Moving Average) has a MAD
of 0.35, MSE of 0.16, MAPE of 0.0032763; WMA (Weighted Moving Averages) has a MAD of 0.30,
MSE of 0.12, MAPE of 0.0027857; Exponential Smoothing with a Smoothing Constant of 0.3 has
a MAD of 0.52, MSE of 0.33, MAPE of 0.0048587; Exponential Smoothing with a Smoothing
Constant of 0.4 has a MAD of 0.41, MSE of 0.21, MAPE of 0.0038048; and Linear trend has a
MAD of 0.00, MSE of 774.31403, MAPE of 0.26157; TAF (Trend Adjusted Forecast) has a MAD of
7.0402, MSE of 64.6218, MAPE of 0.0662. Hence, among the forecasting methods, the Two-
Period Moving Average has the lowest data value. Thus, the Two-Period Moving Average is the
best method to utilize.
 Table 1. Results of the different forecasting methods
Exponential Exponential
Linear
MA2 MA3 WMA Smoothing Smoothing TAF
Trend
α = 0.3 β = 0.4
MAD 0.29 0.35 0.30 0.52 0.41 0.00 7.0402
MSE 0.11 0.16 0.12 0.33 0.21 774.31403 64.6218
MAPE 0.0027650 0.0032763 0.0027857 0.0048587 0.0038048 0.26157 0.0662

Figure 2 shows that there is an upward trend in the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI)
in Belgium from January 2017 to January 2019. It illustrates that the consumer price index is
increasing monthly.

Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Belgium

from January 2017 to January 2019
109.00
108.00
107.00
106.00
105.00
104.00
103.00
102.00
Aug-17
Jan-17

Sep-18
Nov-17

Jan-18

Aug-18

Nov-18
Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18
Jul-17

Oct-17

Jul-18

Oct-18
Mar-17

Mar-18
Feb-17

May-17

Feb-18

May-18
Apr-17

Apr-18

MA2 MA3 WMA

Linear (MA2) Linear (MA3) Linear (WMA)

Figure 2. Monthly Consumer Price Index

from January 2017 to 2019

Summing up, there is a monthly increase on the monthly consumer price index in Belgium
from January 2017 to January 2019. Consequently, if there is an increase in the consumer price
index, there is inflation, or a steady increase in the prices of goods and services. Furthermore,
monitoring the consumer price index is vital to the economy. Everyone must be aware of the
consumer price index because it affects everyone. When being paid, the consumer price index
helps to determine how big an employee’s paycheck is. Many employers use the consumer price
index to decide how much of a cost-of-living raise to give employees. When mailing a birthday
card, the consumer price index helps to determine how much it costs. When paying the rent,
consumer price index may even affect where someone lives. Many land-lords tie rent changes to
consumer price index increases. The consumer price index also comes to play if someone wants
to rent government facilities; the consumer price index for rent is used to adjust fees for using
federal facilities.