Guesstimates Compendium

Consulting Club
Faculty of Management Studies
Delhi
 Contents
1. Estimate the number of Parathas consumed per day in Delhi………………………………………..2
2. Estimate the number of words in a normal edition of Times of India……………………………..3
3. Estimate the annual market for sports shoes in India……………………….……………………………4
4. Estimate the average distance covered by a football player in a match............................5
5. Market size of disposable diapers in India………………………………........................................7
6. Total number of chairs used in Delhi University……………………………..................................7
7. Number of working ATM’s in NCR region…………………………………………...............................8
8. How many Maggie packets are used in the FMS canteen in a week…...............................9
9. Estimate the number of males who get a haircut in Delhi in 1 day..................................10
10. Estimate the weekly revenue of FMS canteen……............................................................11
11. What is the number of flights leaving the Mumbai terminal each day............................12
12. What is the total numbers of car sold in Delhi per year...................................................13
13. How many people in India will be in flight at any given point of the day.........................14
14. Estimate total rail-line network in India...........................................................................15
15. Estimate the number of popcorns sold in PVR Saket every day…………………………………….16
16. Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in a year in India…………………………………………….17
17. Estimate the number of golf balls that can fit into a Boeing 747 plane…………………………18
18. Estimate the number of votes polled by the BJP in the 2009 General
Elections………………………………………………………………………………………………. …………………….18
19. Estimate the cumulative number of hours spent by people in India tying shoelaces in a
day……………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………19
20. The amount of money spent on street food in Delhi………………………………………………….. 20
21. Estimate the number of people travelling by Delhi metro on an average day……………… 20
22. Estimate the revenue from hotels and lodges in Goa in a year…………………………………….22
23. Number of South Indians in Delhi University………………………………………………………………. 22
24. Market size of scissors in India …………………………………………………………………………………..23
25. Estimate the annual market size formal ties in India………………………………………………….. 24
26. Market size of scissors in India……………………………………………………………………………………. 25
27. Estimate the number of cigarettes consumed in India in one year?...............................26
28. Estimate the number of cinema hall seats in New Delhi…………………………………………….. 27
29. Estimate the number of cycles you could park in the FMS lawns………………………………… 27
30. Estimate weekly consumption of milk in Delhi……………………………………………………………. 28
31. Estimate the number of Indians on Twitter………………………………………………………………….29

1
 1. Estimate the number of Parathas consumed per day in Delhi

Answer:
Population of Delhi: 2 Cr
Income Groups: low 30% Middle 50% High 20%
Population ( Lakhs ): 60 100 40
Within the lowest income group, let’s divide the lower income group into:
Poor (50% of 60 L) = 30Lakhs 1 Paratha/3 days= 10 L per day
Destitute (50% of 60L) = 30Lakhs No Parathas
Middle Income: 100 L people = Have around 10 options for breakfast (including
Poha,
Maggi, Poori, Chole etc ).
Breaking up the 100L people into smaller segments according to age group:
Age # ( Lakhs )
0-15Years 20 Lakhs 1 per person at an average = 20 Lakhs
15-25Years 30 Lakhs 3 per person at an average= 90 Lakhs
35-55Years 30 Lakhs 2 per person at an average= 60 lakhs
>55Years 20 Lakhs 1 per person at an average= 20 lakhs Total=190
Lakhs
But the middle income group has considerable number of choices. Say, 10
choices. So the probability
Of choosing a paratha on a given day will be 10%.
190x.10=19 Lakhs
It is only fair to assume that the higher income groups vouch for lighter breakfast
and a little more Westernised food styles.
So it’s fair to assume that only about 5% of the higher income group eats 1
paratha on any given day.

2
Therefore, 40Lx5%= 2Lakhs
Therefore, total number of parathas eaten will be 10+19+2= 31Lakh Parathas in a
day are consumed in Delhi.

2. Estimate the number of words in a normal edition of Times of India.

Facts:
In a normal edition (Not a Sunday edition), there are 16 sheets of paper.
Two sheets are of sports section.
1 sheet is of editorial section.
2 sheets are of classifieds section.

Assumptions:
Let the width of newspaper sheet be 30cm and length is 50 cm.
Let the effective area considering border be 90%
On sports sheet, 40% area is occupied by images.
On editorial sheet, 10% area is occupied by cartoons and sketches.
On classifieds, section, There are no images (almost all text).
On remaining sheets (including front and last sheet), 20% area is of images.
Therefore, on two sports sheet, total area of text= 2*30 *50 *0.9*0.6=
1620 cm2
On 1 editorial sheet, total area of text= 1*30*50*0.9*0.9= 1215 cm2
On 2 classifieds sheet, total area of text= 2*30*50*0.9*1= 2700cm2
On 11 sheets, total area of text= 11*30*50*0.9*0.8= 11880 cm2
Total area of text approx = 18000 cm2
In 1 cm2, there are 2 words of normal font; therefore, there are 36000
words.
We have ignored the headlines and subhead lines, as they are very
negligible.
Answer: 36000 words

3
 3. Estimate the annual market for sports shoes in India
Answer:

Total population of India is about 1.2b. Out of these, 30% people are in
poverty who wouldn’t be able to purchase sports shoes. Therefore, we can
consider about 840m.
Out of 840m, there are 420m males and 420m females. Given that sports
are not a hobby for each and every individual, we can assume that
approximately 80% of males and 60% of females are interested in such
activities. That leaves us with 340m males and 250m females.
Therefore, we are considering about 600m individuals.
Given that children till age of 18 keep growing, their shoes need to replace
sooner than adults. We can assume that under-18 population buys a new
pair of sports shoe every 2 years. Also, among adults, some people use
sports shoes sparingly and replace them once every 5-6 years. There is also
a group of people who are heavily into physical activities who like to
replace shoes every 1-2 years. We can estimate that an average adult buys
a new sports shoe every 3 years.
Given the spending capacity of the population, we can arrive at the
following figures

Low income Middle income High income

Population 180m 360m 60m

Shoe price (in Rs) 800 1800 3000
Therefore, total cost of shoes purchased
= 180x800m + 360x1800m + 60x3000m
= 144000 +648000 +180000
=Rs. 972000m
Now kids form 40% of our population and rest would be adults. Kids would
be buying once in 2 years and adults would be buying every 3 years.
Therefore adjusting for the frequency of purchase, the market size would
be
972000m x 0.4 x 0.5 + 972000m x 0.6 x 0.33 = 388billion ~ Rs. 400billion
4
 4. Estimate the average distance covered by a football player in a
match.(Ignore goalkeepers)
Answer:
Types of player
1. Defender
2. Midfielder
3. Striker
Defender

55 minutes jogging (5km/hr)- 3.5km approx

30 minutes medium pace (10km/hr)- 5km
5 minutes fast pace (25km/hr)- 2 km
Total 10.5km
Midfielder

45 minutes jogging (5km/hr)- 4km approx

35 minutes medium pace (10km/hr)- 5km
10 minutes fast pace (25km/hr)- 4 km
Total 13km
Striker

60 minutes jogging (5km/hr)- 5km approx

25 minutes medium pace (10km/hr)- 3.5km
5 minutes fast pace (25km/hr)- 2 km
Total 10.5km
Now, team formation and
Defender-mid fielder-striker

5
 4-4-2
So, (42+52+21) =105km total
4-3-3
So, (42+39+32)/12=103 km total
5-4-1
So, (53+52+10)/12=105 km total
So we can take 105 for all
Substitutes
50% matches 2 substitute – 105/12=9 approx
40% matches 1 substitute-105/11= 10 approx
10% matches no substitute-105/10 =10.5
So,
(9*0.5)+ (10*0.4)+(10.5*0.1)=9.5km approx
Now
80% matches are completed in 90 minutes
20% will go in extra time
So for that we have another 30 minutes so
Average for that 20% will be 12 kms
So (0.8*9.5) + (0.2*13)=10 km approx

6
 5. Market size of disposable diapers in India?

Answer:
Total population of India: 1.3 Billion
Now assuming that diapers are used for children of age group of 0-3 years.
Assuming 50% of people are in age group of 0-25 years
Number of children between age group 0-3 years = ((1.3/2)* 3)/25=0.078
billion= approx 0.08 billion
30% of total population is below poverty line so they can’t buy diapers. So
remaining 70% of total children may use diapers= 0.08 X 0.7= 0.056 billion
I know 7 family having kids in this age group and the number of which only 4
family use diapers for their kids daily. Assuming the situation prevalent
throughout India so total number of kids using diapers = 0.056 X4/7=0.032
billion
Let each child use 5 diapers per day
So total number of diapers used per day= 0.032 X5= 0.16 billion
Per pack of diapers contain 26 diapers at a price of Rs 300
Price of diaper used per day in India= 0.16 X 300/26= 1.846 billion rupees
Market share throughout year= 1.846 X 365= Rs 673.85 billion rupees

6. Total number of chairs used in Delhi University?

Answer:
In FMS number of chairs: Hall A: 150, Hall B: 150, Room No 11: 75, Room No
12: 75, Mdp 1: 75, MDP 2:75, staff room : 35, dean’s office : 5, Library: 50, staff
rooms: 50, computer room :75 canteen: 30
Total chair in FMS= 845 chairs
Total number of regular students, staff, and faculty in FMS is 600

7
 In FMS number of chairs per Regular staff and students: 845/600= 1.4
In Delhi university 220000 students and 30000 faculty and staff is there. So
total number of staff and students: 250000
So Number of chairs is = 250000 X 1.4 = 352083 chairs= Approx 355000 chair

7. Number of working ATM’s in NCR region?

Answer:
Assuming that this day does not have a bank strike
From Visvavidyalaya Metro station to Malkhaganj Chowk
Number of ATMs = 10
Number of ATMs not working=3
Number of people these ATMs caters to= 10000(number of students including
FMS, kirorimal, Delhi school of economics, Hansraj college: 6000 and number
of shoppers and other people: 4000)
So number of people one ATM caters = (10000/10) =1000
Population of NCR is = approx 2 crore
30% are below poverty line so they won’t have account. Number of people
having account= 20000000X0.7=14000000
Of the people having account nearly 5% won’t use ATMs. So number of people
using ATM = 14000000X0.95=13300000
Number of ATM required= (13300000/1000) =13300
Of the 10 ATM only 7 was working (as I had gone to these 10 ATMs, 3 was not
working)
Extrapolating these, number of ATM working in NCR region is= 13300 X 0.70 =
9310

8
 8. How many Maggie packets are used in the FMS canteen in a week?

Answer:
Assuming Maggie is eaten by students only.
Number of students visiting FMS canteen is= (440+100) =540
Assumption
Maggie is preferred for Morning and evening snacks
Every one like Maggie as I have 10 friends and all of them like Maggie
A person will have Maggie only once in day.
Assuming PG and hostel and localities people will have breakfast and very few
would like to have maggie
PG and Hostel Flats Localities
Percentage of 45% 45% 10%
students
In morning % of 5% 10% 5%
people having
Maggie
Number of people 540X0.45X0.05=13 540X.45X.10=25 540X.10X.05=3
In evening % of 10% 10% 10%
people having
maggie
Number of people 540 X .45X.10=26 540X .45X10=25 540X.10X.10=6

Total Maggie consumed one day= 98

Now one packet of Maggie makes 2 plates.
So number of Maggie used= 46
Packet of Maggie used in seven days= 46X6= 276

9
 9. Estimate the number of males who get a haircut in Delhi in 1 day?

Answer:
Assumption
Everyday everyone is free to have a haircut.
Population of Delhi = 18000000
50% are male. So male population=9000000
Age group 5 years and above= 9000000 X0.90= 8100000
Dividing the population into three group
1. Having hair cut very regular(in 30 days)= 45% of population
Number of people= 0.45X8100000
Number of haircut in a year=12
Number of people in this category having haircut per day=
(8100000X0.45/12X365)= 832
2. Having haircut in a span of 45 days
Number of people= 0.40 X 8100000
Number of haircut in a year=8
Number of people in this category having haircut per day=
(8100000X0.45/8X365) = 1109
3. Having haircut in a span of 60 days
Number of people= 0.15 X 8100000
Number of haircut in a year=6
Number of people in this category having haircut per day=
(8100000X0.15/6X365) = 554
Total number of people in Delhi having haircut is = (832+1109+554)= 2495 =
approx 2500

10
 10. Estimate the weekly revenue of FMS canteen?

Answer:
Number of students visiting FMS canteen is= (440+100) =540
Assumption
Average price of items which is sold between classes = ((idli,bada(20)+ cold
drink(10)+ Tea (10)+ Bread omelette(20))=(60/4)= Rs15
At lunch hours let the average price a person pays is Rs 45
Average total number of breaks is 3 per day. Two between the classes and one for
lunch.
Assuming PG and hostel and localities people will have breakfast and very few
would like to have breakfast in canteen
PG and Hostel Flats Localities
Percentage of 45% 45% 10%
students
In morning % of 5% 20% 5%
people having
something from
canteen
Number of people 540X0.45X0.05=13 540X.45X.20=50 540X.10X.05=3
Average amount 13 X 15=195 50X15=750 3 x15=45
Rs
In afternoon % of 50% 95% 50%
people having
something from
canteen
Number of people 540 X .45X.50=122 540X .45X.95=230 540X.10X.50=27
Average amount (122+230+27)X45=17055
Rs

Considering the average amount per teacher spend for lunch= 70 X 80=Rs5600
Total revenue in one day=(195+750+45+17055+5600)= Rs 23645

11
Total amount earned in 5 working days = 23645 X 5= Rs 118225
On Saturday classes are very few. As classes decrease to 1/3 of strength so
revenue decreased = 118225/3= Rs 39408
So total revenue of week= 118225+39408= Rs 157633

11. What is the number of flights leaving the Mumbai terminal each day?

Answer:
With my experience average time taken for a flight to take off from runway is 1.25
min.
Total runway in Mumbai airport is 2.
Assuming that since Mumbai is international and one of the busiest airports its
runway will always be busy.
Assuming that there is a time gap of 1.25 mins between each take off and landing
so total flight in one hours is 60/1.25=48
Now half of the plane had taken off. So number of planes is 24
Since it has two crossed runways so per hour number of flights took off is 48.
In a day number of flights to took off is 48 X 24= 1152

12
 12. What is the total numbers of car sold in Delhi per year?
Answer:
Total population of Delhi = 16 Lakhs
Assuming 50% are male and they only purchase car = 16 X0.5 =8 Lakhs
30% of population is below poverty line so they can’t afford to buy cars. So
percentage of population to buy cars is= 8X 0.7=5.6 Lakhs = Approx 6 Lakhs
Assuming age group of 25-45 will purchase cars as age group below 25 may not
have monetary power and age above 45 won’t have desire to buy new cars.
Percentage of population in age group (25-45) = 6 X 0.5 X (20/ (75-25))= 1.2 lakhs
Percentage of people in upper middle income group= 0.5 X 1.2= 0.6 Lakhs
Percentage of people in higher income group= 1.2 X 0.3= 0.36 Lakhs
Assuming 70% of middle class people don’t have car among them 20% wants to
buy car this year. Thus number of middle income group= 0.6 X 0.7 X 0.2= 8400
cars
Assuming among higher income group 50% wants to buy car every year= 0.5 X
0.36=18000
Thus amount of car sold= 8400 + 18000= 26400
Approximating error of 0.2 = 26400 X 1.2= 31680

13
 13. How many people in India will be in flight at any given point of the day?

Let us assume we are calculating for morning time

Type of routes in India

• High traffic - e.g. Delhi - Mumbai
• Moderate traffic - e.g. Delhi - Indore
• Low traffic - e.g. Delhi - Amritsar

Number of airports and respective connecting routes

• assuming busy airports 7 therefore routes =7*5 = 35
• assuming moderate airports 25 therefore routes = 25*2 = 50
• assuming low airports 15 therefore routes = 15*1 = 15

Number of flights in air at a given time

• High traffic =5 therefore = 35 * 5 = 175
• Moderate traffic = 2 therefore = 50 * 2 = 100
• Low traffic =1 therefore = 15 * 1 = 15

Total Flights = 290

Assuming average number of passengers = 130
so total passengers = 300 * 130 = 39000
Assuming 10 % additional international passengers in India = 4000

Total = 42000
14
 14. Estimate total rail-line network in India

Dividing the whole network into Junctions = 20 main junctions

Each junction has 5 different main routes that are connecting to other main
junctions
Total routes = 100
Assuming 25 % long routes with length = 1000 KM
And 75 % short routes with length = 300 KM

Total length = 25 * 1000 + 75 * 300 = 47500 KM

Now taking 5 small stations which are associated with each main junctions
So total stations / routes = 20 * 5 = 100 stations / routes

Average length of each route = 100 KM

Total length = 100 * 100 = 10000 KM

Total Length = 47500 + 10000 = 57500 KM

Assuming 10 % siding etc = 63000 KM

15
 15. Estimate the number of popcorns sold in PVR Saket every day.
1st part - number of people coming for movies taking popcorn
2nd part - number of popcorns

1st part -
Number of shows per day = 40
Number of screens =6
Average Number of seats= 200
Total number of people = 40 * 200 = 8000
Number of people taking popcorn = 70 % = 0.7 * 8000 = 5500
2nd part -
3 type of popcorn size
• Large = 1/3 * pie * 8*8* 20 cm3 = 1400 cm3
• Medium = 0.75 * 1400 = 1000 cm3
• Small = 0.5 * 1400 = 700 cm3

Size of popcorn = 1 * 1 * 1 = 1 cm3

Number of popcorns - assuming 30 % air
• Large = 1400 * 0.7/1 = 1000
• Medium = 1000 * 0.7/1 = 700
• Small = 700 * 0.7/1 = 500

Total Number of popcorns - Assuming 20 % large, 40 % medium, 30 % small

• Large = 1000 * 0.2 * 5500 = 1100000

16
 • Medium = 700 * 0.4 * 5500 = 1540000
• Small = 500 * 0.3 * 5500 = 835000

Total Number of popcorns = 34, 75,000

16. Estimate the sales of Maruti Swift Dzire in a year in India.

Assumptions:
Total population of India = 125 crore

In India average number of cars every household has =10%

Therefore total cars in India = 1.25 crore

Say out of these total cars in India 10% were sold in a year.
Therefore total sold = 12 lakh cars

Reasoning and Calculations:

Expected to be sold in 2012 - 13 will be less by 5%
Therefore total cars to be sold in a year = 12 lakh new cars in all segments

Now let’s assume Maruti has a market share of close to 40% combining all
segments.
Therefore total Maruti cars on road will be 40% of 12 lakh cars = 4.8 lakh cars

After Alto , Wagon R and Swift Dzire are most sold car by Maruti

Dzire = 20% of all Maruti sold are Dzire = 1 lac (approx.)

Conclusion:
Total number of Swift Dzires = 1 lac

17
 17. Estimate the number of golf balls that can fit into a Boeing 747 plane

The volume of Boeing 747 can be estimates as-

Length=75m, Breadth=4m, Height=3m
Approx volume=75*4*3=900 cu.m
Now, considering the volume occupied by Seats, and other occupied
regions, we reduce the available volume by 20%.
Therefore, Available Volume = .80*900 = 720 cu.m
Diameter of golf ball= 0.05m
Volume occupied by one golf ball=0.05*0.05*0.05=0.000125cu.m
Assume these golf balls are arranged in a hexagonal lattice. Hexagonal
lattice has the highest packing efficiency which is 74.05%
Total no. of balls= (720/0.000125) X .74=4262400

18. Estimate the number of votes polled by the BJP in the 2009 General
Elections

Total population above 18 years (legal voting age) = 70 Million

We know that 60% of the people voted in 2009 = 60% of 70 million = 42
million
Total seats in LokSabha = ~550

Also, we know that BJP contested on almost 350 seats

Therefore, population voting to BJP over (350/550)*42 million = ~25
milllion

Assuming that on an average 15% of the vote share was for BJP (as it fared
pretty badly in the elections and got only 117 seats)

Hence, vote share for BJP = 15% of 25 million = ~4 million

18
 19. Estimate the cumulative number of hours spent by people in India tying
shoelaces in a day
Population of India: 1.2 billlion
30% of the population is below poverty line. We can fairly assume that this
population does not have shoes.
Target population is 70% of 1.2 billion = 0.8 billion
Now dividing the population into male and female (50:50)
We can assume that negligible population of female population wear shoes
with shoelace (even school going girls wear buckle shoes and canvas shoes
is wore by a negligible population)
Therefore, target population = 50% of 0.8 billion = 0.4 billion

Now segmenting the data based on age group

0-5 yrs – 10%
5-65 yrs – 80%
65-75 yrs – 10%

We target the age group 5-65 yrs as school children, college students and
working professional lie in this age bracket
Therefore, target population = 80% of 0.4 billion = ~0.3 billion

Assuming that out of this about 30% of the population don’t wear shoes
with shoelace (designer shoes, chappals, sandals)

Therefore, 70% of 0.3 billion = ~0.2 billion people wear shoes with
shoelace.
Now, assuming each person on an average takes 1/2 minute to tie a
shoelace.

Thus number of hours spent by people in India tying shoelaces in a day =

0.5*0.2 /60 billion
~ 1.5 million hours

19
 20. The amount of money spent on street food in Delhi
Population of Delhi = 16 million
50 % urban 50 % rural = 8 million
Urban Population:
Out of 50 % urban population, dividing on the basis of age as street food
are mostly eaten by college students and young working class i.e. age group
15-25.
In India, 25 is median age = 50 % population 0-25 years. Thus as per normal
distribution 15-25 = 20 % of population.
20 % of 8 million = 1.6 million
On the basis of my observation these 1.6 million populations has health
conscious people who do not eat street food for hygiene issue. As per my
observation in a family of 4-6 only 1-2 people have street food.
Thus we take 25% of 1.6 million = 0.4 million
Amount of money spent by urban population on street food ranges
between Rs 20 to Rs 80
Thus money spent = 0.4 million * 20 = 8 million
Rural Population:
Out of 8 million population in rural sector, 30% lie below poverty line so we
neglect them. For the rest of 70% population, 40% people have street food
as it is a cheap option=
40% * 70% * 8 million. = 2 million
Thus, money spent on street foods = 10 million

21. Estimate the cumulative number of people travelling by Delhi metro on

an average day.

Population of Delhi and NCR: 20 million

Segmenting our population data into 3 segments –
Regular users and sporadic users

Regular users = Working population, College and school students

For working population if we consider average size of family as 4 and on an
average 1 person working in each family, working population = 30%

20
 (considering small proportion of female also working) = 30% of 20 million =
~6 million
Out of these we assume 30% to use metro (as many NCR people rely on
metro to travel across Delhi) and rest use personal vehicles, public
transportation

Therefore, target population = 30% of 6 million = 1.8 million

For, College students we assume age group 17-21 yrs, and since 50% of the
population lies below 25 yrs age, we can divide population as below
0-16 – 30% population
17-21- 10% population
22-25- 10% population
Therefore, target population = 10% of 16 million = 1.6 million

Out of these we assume 50% to travel by metro as most many use college
buses and public transport as means of transportation

Therefore, target population = 50% of 1.6 million = 0.8 million

Total regular users = 1.8 + 0.8 million = 2.6 million

Sporadic users are the ones who do not use metro regularly but travel once
in a while
As per my observation of people at token counter (assuming them not to
be the regular users), we can assume 30% of the people in metro to be
sporadic users
Let us take x to be the people travelling by metro in a day
Hence, sporadic users = 0.3 x

Therefore, 2.6 million + 0.3x = x

2.6 million = 0.7x
X = 2.6 million / 0.7
= ~4million

21
 22. Estimate the revenue from hotels and lodges in Goa in a year

Goa being a tourist location we have a lot of hotels and lodges.

We first calculate the number of hotels and lodges.

Goa has a lot of happening places. Assuming the total number of beaches in
Goa which are very famous to be 10, number of churches to be 20, number
of forts = 5 thus all in all there are around 30 tourist locations in Goa.

The maximum numbers of hotels are around these locations only. So an

average around 1 tourist location there are 10 hotels surrounding it. So
30*10 = 300 hotels in Goa.

On an average cost of 1 room ranges from Rs 500 to Rs 1500. So taking it to

be Rs 700

In a hotel there are around 30 rooms in small hotels and 100 rooms in big
hotels and lodges have around 10 rooms. So we take the number of rooms
= 30.

The revenue from hotels and lodges in Goa in 1 day = 300 * 700 * 30=
63,00,000

This calculation is in peak season when we expect 100 % utilization of the

rooms. In off peak season only 50 % is occupied.

Adding 6000000 + 3000000 = 9000000 = 9 million

23. Numbers of South Indians in Delhi University?

Assuming the numbers of students in Delhi University are 1, 00,000 every
year as there are about 85 colleges under Delhi University adding north and
south campus.
• Since there are no reservations for Delhi students let us assume that
60 per cent students who take admission are from Delhi due to the
closeness factor, which leaves us with 40 per cent to choose from.
22
 • If we consider all other regions left –we divide the country into north
and central India, east and west India and south India.
• As for north India we have covered them in the 60 per cent while
assuming from central India negligible kids join all of which is
included in north India.
• As there is reservation for tribes the number of kids from east would
be 10 per cent of the remaining.
• Also the number of students from west would also include and equal
weightage going by the size of the population and geography.
• Thus we are left with 20 per cent from South India i.e. 20%
100000=20000x3=60000

24. Market size of scissors in India

a) Estimation of market size for scissors in India annually:
(Here, the annual market size is being calculated since the time period is
not mentioned in the question)
Target Population Set:
Indian Population: 1.2 B
India has nearly 30% population living below poverty line. It would be fair
to assume that a negligible proportion of this segment possesses a scissor.
So, 0.84B population is remaining.
This population can be divided into 2 segments on the basis of usage of
scissors:
• Household usages
• Professional usages
Household Usages: In the rest of the population, it is fair to assume that per
family there would be at least 1 scissor used. And an average Indian family
size is 5 members. Thus No. of families = 0.84B / 5 = 0.16 B
Thus for Household usages 0.16 B scissors are used
Professional Usages: Apart from the usage of scissors for household works,
there are many professions which use the scissor daily for their work.
They include Beauty Parlors, tailors, hospitals.

23
 In my locality on average 10 hospitals, 20 tailors, 20 parlors serve around 10
lakh people.
So average number of hospitals in the entire country can be assumed to be
around
(0.84 B * 10) / 1000000 = 8400
No of scissors used in 1 hospital is approximately 50
Thus total no of scissors used in hospitals = 8400 * 50 = 420000
So average number of tailors and parlors in the entire country can be
assumed to be around
(0.84 B * 40) / 1000000 = 33600
No of scissors used in 1 parlor/ tailor is approximately 5
Thus total no of scissors used in hospitals = 33600 * 5 = 168000
Thus total number of scissors used in India in professional services =
588000.
Calculations and conclusions:
Assuming average price per scissor to be Rs.75. (Averaging for good quality
scissor reaching Rs.200 and low quality shuttles till Rs.50)
Market Size for scissors in India annually = 75*0.16B = Rs.12B

25. Estimate the annual market size formal ties in India

India’s Populations = 1.2 B
Further dividing the population in urban and rural:
Urban population = 31 % = 0.4B (approx.)
Rural population = 69% = 0.8B (approx.)
We can neglect the number of people wearing ties in rural areas since tie is
used by professionals and is not a regular piece of clothing in villages.
So 0.4 B is remaining
Out of this girls/ women do not wear ties mostly. So neglecting even this
part of the population.
Assuming 50 % of the population to be female, 50 %of 0.4 B = 0.2B is
neglected.
We are left with 0.2 B i.e. Urban Male populations.
Now dividing this population on the basis of age,
25 years is the median age thus 50 % population is below 25 years and 50 %
above 25 years.
24
 25-45 years of age are the working professionals who use ties.
25-45 years = 20 % of 0.2 B = 0.04 B
Unemployment rate in India = 3 % = 3 % of 0.04 = 0.0012 B
Thus number of employed people = 0.04 – 0.0012 = 0.03 B
(We are considering this entire segment as our target group as some of
them might be not using ties but there are also some in the group of 20-25
years who use ties for interviews)
On an average a working professional buys 3 ties in a year (some people do
not wear tie at all and some wear tie every day. But still tie last for a long
time so this assumption).
Therefore total number of ties = 0.03 B * 3 = 0.09 B
Average price of one tie = Rs 1000 (as low as Rs 100 to as high as Rs 5000
but as number of people buying middle ranged tie is more we assume this
figure)
Total market size of formal ties = 1000 * 0.09 B = 90 B

26. Estimate the number of movies released in India in a year

Dividing one year into peak and off peak weeks we get
Holiday Season (Number of Fridays):
Republic day week (1), Valentine’s day week(2), Holi week(1), summer
vacations(6), Independence day week(1), Diwali and Eid week(2), Christmas
and New year (2) : Total of 15 peak weekends.
So rest
Total Number of weeks in a year ~ 52
Peak Season: Number of weeks ~ 15
Off peak Season Number of weeks ~ 40
As per my observation of movies released at the time of Diwali, we can
safely say that the Number of Hindi movies released in a week in holiday
season (peak time) is 6. And scaling it down to off peak season we get 2
movies released during off peak season.
Thus number of Hindi movies released in Peak season = 15 * 6 = 90
Thus number of Hindi movies released in Off-Peak season = 40 * 2 = 80
Thus total Number of Hindi movies in a year = 170
On this basis we can find out on an average of all different languages:

25
 Dividing the movies on the basis of languages in India and population
density as per these areas:
Tollywood (Telegu, Tamil, Kannada, Malayalam): 4 times that of Hindi
movies as Tollywood has a lot of regional movies and on the basis of the
number of different languages
Thus Tollywood movies = 170 * 4 = 680
Now combining all the others movies released: Others (Rajasthani, Marathi,
Bengali, Bhojpuri,Punjabi, Assamese, Haryavani, etc) : 2 times of Hindi
movies= 170 * 2 = 340
(As there are a lot of languages owing to the diversity in India)
Thus Others = 340
Therefore total number of movies released = 170 + 680 + 340 ~ 1200
movies

27. Estimate the number of cigarettes consumed in India in one year?

Let the population of India be 1.2 B
Urban = 30 %; Rural = 70 %.
Now when we talk about cigarettes let us for the time being ignores the
rural population as they mostly consume local products like beedi. Thus we
are left with 30% of the urban population to consider.
Assuming the urban population to be divided into 60 % males and 40 %
females i.e. 216 million males and 144 million females.
Also assuming 30 per cent males smoke and 10 per cent women smoke i.e.
65 million males and 14 million women smoke.
The smokers can be divided further into chain, occasional and rare
smokers.
Assuming 20 per cent to be chain smokers, 40 per cent to be occasional
smokers and 40 per cent to be rare smokers.
In a day, a chain smokers consume 10 cigarettes, occasional consume 1 and
rare one in 10 days i.e. 0.1.
Number of chain smokers= 20% of 80 million =16, occasional 32 and rare
32million.
Cigarettes consumed per day =16x10+32x1+32x.1=195 million ~ 200
Total cigarettes consumed in 1 year=200x365=73000 million.

26
 28. Estimate the number of cinema hall seats in New Delhi

The cinema halls in Delhi can be divided into multiplexes and single screen
theaters.
In a single screen theater the number of cinema hall seats = 120
(One row has around 20 seats and around 12 rows ~ 120 seats)
In a multiplex, the number of seats in one Audi is also 120
Then there are approx. 3-4 Audi’s in each multiplex. Thus total number of
seats in a multiplex = 3*120 = 360 seats
Dividing area into regions East, North, Central, South and West Delhi.
On an average each region contains 5 single screen halls and 10 multiplexes
Therefore number of cinema hall seats = 5*5*120 + 5*10*360 = 21000
(Averaging the number of single movie halls and multiplexing as central
Delhi has 3 big halls in a radius of 1 km and east Delhi just has 1 for 10 km
radius)
This assumption comes from the observation of my locality, west Delhi has
around 8 multiplexes.

29. Estimate the number of cycles you could park in the FMS lawns
Area of FMS=1.84 Acres
1 acre=43560 sq ft.
Area of FMS = 1.84 * 40000 = 7.36 * 10000 sqft
Area of FMS building (only the 2 floor brick structure) = 60 % of total area
The rest of the area is free.
However we have the canteen, 2 parks / lawns, and other cricket/ football
pitches we can assume this area to be around 20 %.
Thus removing this area gives us the total area available for parking = 20 %
~14000 sqft
One cycle on an average takes 4 sqft area plus 2 sqft area around a cycle to
comfortable park 2 cycles adjacent to each other.
Thus total number of cycles that could be parked =14000/7 ~ 2000 cycles

27
 30. Estimate weekly consumption of milk in Delhi?
The maximum amount of milk is consumed by children and youngsters in
the age group 0-25 as it is the growing age and milk is considered vital. (A
child till 6 months doesn’t drink milk but as this portion is less we are not
excluding it).
The population of Delhi is 16 million.
Dividing the population into Urban and rural, both 50 % as Delhi is a capital
city.
Urban = 8 million, Rural = 8 million
• Urban Population
And as in India, we can assume in Delhi also median age is 25 years.
0-25 = 50 % of population = 4 million
This population has milk almost every day. As some might be having milk twice
a day and some might not have, thus average one individual has 0.5 liter of
milk every day.
Thus urban population in the age group 0-25 years has 4 * 0.5 = 2 million
liters milk every day
The rest of the urban population i.e. 4 million above 25 years of age: office
goers drink tea or coffee or some have milk and old people use milk for
worship, etc. Thus averaging this use as 0.25 liters of milk per day.
Thus urban population in the age group 25 years & above has 4 * 0.25 = 1
million liters milk every day

Urban population has 3 million liters milk every day.

Weekly consumption = 3*7 = 21 million liters milk

• Rural Population

Out of the entire 8 million rural population, only 50 % have milk (as around 30
% lie below poverty line and rest also have milk only for tea or for children)
Milk consumed by an average rural individual = 2 liters a week.
Thus 50 % of 8 million = 4 million have 2 liters a week
Thus urban population has 4 * 2 = 8 million liters milk weekly.

Thus total milk consumption weekly = 8+ 21 = 30 million liters approx.

28
 31. Estimate the number of Indians on Twitter

Indian population = 1.2 B

Urban Population = 30 % = 0.4 B
Rural population does not use twitter.
Out of Urban Population also mostly tier 1 city uses twitter especially in
metros Delhi, Mumbai etc. 50 % population live in tier 1 city = 0.2 B

Literacy rate = 70% = 70 % of 0.2 B = 0.14 B

People in the age group 20-50 years use twitter = 50 % population

= 50 % of 0.14 B = 0.07 B
(Twitter is a very recent phenomenon and is used only by professionals,
film stars, politicians, etc to create their presence)

Taking the estimate by the number of people who use twitter in FMS is only
around 10 in a batch of 220 i.e. 5%. FMS being the educated young class
uses 5 % so we can safely assume that in the students age only 5 % use
twitter.

A lot of politicians and film stars and IPL team owners are very active on
twitter. So taking them also to be 5 % of the entire population.
Thus taking these two together we can say 10 % use twitter

= 10 % of 0.07 B = 7 Million

29