SAS - Electric Load Forecasting: Fundamentals and Best

Practices

Code: BELF
Length: 2 days
URL: View Online

This course introduces electric load forecasting from both statistical and practical aspects using language and examples from the
power industry. Through conceptual and hands-on exercises, participants experience load forecasting for a variety of horizons
from a few hours ahead to 30 years ahead. The overall aims are to prepare and sharpen the statistical and analytical skills of
participants in dealing with real-world load forecasting problems and improve their ability to design, develop, document, and
report sound and defensible load forecasts.

According to statistics gathered on the first five offerings, this course was highly rated by students who ranged from new
graduates with no industry or SAS experience to forecasting experts with over 30 years of industry experience and over 20 years
of SAS programming background. The students represented all sectors of the industry: G&T, ISO, distribution companies, REPs,
IOU, co-op, municipal, regulatory commission, and consulting firm. Titles of the participants ranged from analyst, engineer,
manager, to director and vice president.

For advanced topics, pair this course with Electric Load Forecasting: Advanced Topics and Case Studies The two courses are
offered on contiguous days.

Skills Gained
classify load forecasts

use basic graphic methods to discover the salient features of load profiles

build a benchmark model for a wide range of utilities

capture special effects for a local utility

forecast loads for both small and large utilities

improve very short-term forecasting accuracy

perform weather normalization

use macroeconomic indicators for long-term load forecasts

detect outliers

continue improving forecasting practice

avoid making frequently made mistakes.

Who Can Benefit

Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power

system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts

Prerequisites
 Before attending this course, you should

have a basic knowledge of the utility industry

have a basic understanding of forecasting.

Course Details

Introduction to Electric Load Forecasting

overview of the electric power industry

business needs of load forecasts

driving factors of electricity consumption

classification of load forecasts

software applications

Salient Features of Electric Load Series

a general approach to electric load forecasting

overview of the data pool

trend and seasonality

more salient features

Multiple Linear Regression

naive models

trend

class variables

polynomial regression

interaction regression

rolling regression

A Naive Benchmark for Short-term Load Forecasting

motivation

criterion

a naive MLR benchmark

applications

two more salient features

Customizing the Benchmarking Model

recency effect

weekend effect

holiday effect

case studies

two more salient features

Very Short-Term Load Forecasting
hour ahead load forecasting

weighted least squares regression

dynamic regression

two-stage method

extensions

Medium/Long-Term Load Forecasting

macroeconomic indicator

weather normalization

forecasting with weather variation

forecasting with cross scenarios

Variables, Methods, Techniques, and Further Readings

load, weather, calendar, macroeconomic indicator, etc.

similar day and hierarchy

regression

ARIMA

exponential smoothing

support vector machine

artificial neural networks

fuzzy systems and fuzzy regression

relevant and readable books

load forecasting papers

training courses

Frequently Made Mistakes

counterexamples

expectation

data

models

decisions

Software Applications

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