Professional Documents
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227-260
Cost Estimation
COST ESTIMATION
Summary
Introduction
The names of the various types of cost estimates are not nearly as
important as the identification of the estimate with the associated degree of
accuracy of the estimate. There are four basic types of cost estimates used in
evaluating new mining properties. They reflect various stages of progress in the
project. The type and timing of these estimates can best be illustrated with an
example. A typical mining property moves to completion through a series of
stages as follows [1], 1979):
This example illustrates that there are several key decision points during the
life of a new mining property which require feasibility studies and associated
cost analyses with varying degrees of accuracy. Table 1 illustrates the
relationships among the four basic types of cost estimates and associated
accuracies, time requirements, contingencies, percentages of preproduction
engineering effort, and percentage of preproduction capital expenditures, the
absolute values in the table will vary, of course, depending on the type and
scope of the investment proposal being investigated .Nonetheless, the values do
provide a relative comparison of various cost estimates and accompanying
feasibility studies, it is interesting to notes that a relatively small percentage of
total capital expenditures occur through the definitive cost estimate stage of the
project. At this point, if a decision is made to proceed with the project, serious
preproduction activities begin to occur. Even so, most capital expenditures are
typically made after the detailed cost estimate when equipment orders are
confirmed and construction and development begin.
Before proceeding with a discussion of the various cost estimating
techniques, it is worthwhile to examine in a qualitative sense some of the
features and uses of these four basic types of estimates, the brief notes which
follow are intended to place in perspective the characteristics of the four types
of cost estimates proposed and their relationships to new mining property
evaluation.
Accuracy
The order of magnitude cost estimate provides a relatively low level of
accuracy varying by as much as -30% to +50% and sometimes more when
compared to true project cost. The sacrifice in precision, however, is often
Type of cost
estimate and Percentage of
Percentage
associated Noncumulative preproduction
Accuracy Contingency completion of
stage of time required capital expended at
% required , % preproduction
project estimate time of estimate,
effort, % %
developmen
t
Order of -30 to
magnitude +50 1-7 days 20-30 5 <0.5
-15 to 1 week-
Preliminary +30 2months 15-25 15- 25 2-5
-5 to
Definitive +15 3 -12months 5- 15 50-60 10- 20
-2 to
Detailed + 10 2-9 months 4-8 90-100 50- 60
Accuracy
The accuracy of a preliminary cost estimate is variable but will typically
range between -15% and +30%, depending on the scope of the project.
Accuracy
The level of accuracy associated with a thorough and well-planned
definitive cost estimate should range between -5% and +15%.
Accuracy
Detailed cost estimates should possess the accuracy between -2% and
+ 10% of actual project costs.
1. historical costs,
2. measured costs, and
3. policy costs.
2. Time Studies
Example 1:
A small fleet of 100-ton trucks was observed throughout the following
cycle load, flat haul of 3000ft, spotting and dumping, return, waiting, spot and
load. The average production for the truck fleet was 12,00tons per shift
operating costs for the 100-ton truck fleet were as follows.
Example 2:
A work sampling study of an electric shovel in an open pit mine was
performed. Some 400 observations were made of the unit and the shovel was
found to be in a waiting or nonproduction mode during 55 of these observation.
How much of the total time is the shovel expected to be waiting for one reason
or another?
Solution:
Since work sampling is a statistical technique, the laws of probability
must be followed. When n, the number of observations, is large the binomial
distribution approaches the normal distribution. Therefore, the probability of
even i occurring can be estimated from the number of observations [3].
pi( 1 - pi) /2
1 = 2 (2)
0.14(1-0.14) Yl
1 = 2(1.645) = 0.057. (3)
400
This system stipulates times for various human motions, usually over
very short intervals. Work performance (quantity) and subsequent cost
distributions can theoretically be determined on this basis. These techniques are
more applicable to assembly-line mass-production situations and are rarely used
in the mining sector.
policy costs are unique in that they have the characteristic of being fixed for
estimating purposes. Although the origins of these costs may be varied, they are
accepted as factual and beyond control by the estimator.
• Accounting Department,
• Personnel Department,
• Production Department direct costs per unit of production,
maintenance, repair, supplies,
• Purchasing Department,
• Marketing Department,
• Legal Department,
• Engineering and Geology Department,
• Bureau of labor statistics,
• Department of commerce,
• Bureau of Mine,
• Department of Energy (DOE),
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
1. General
Location
Topography
Climate
Access to facilities and labor market
Prevailing labor costs (including payroll burden)
Daily or annual tonnage
Applicable cost indices
Electric power costs
Transportation availability
3. Beneficiation
Crushability and/ or grindability
Extraction method (flow chart is useful)
4. Exploration
Methods to be used
Area (coverage)
5. Capital Cost
Extent and method of preproduction development
Freight rates
Taxes
C. Beneficiation
Crushing
Grinding
Concentrating
Waste and tailings disposal
Site preparation
Utilities and facilities
Townsite
Restoration during construction
Engineering and construction management fee
Working capital
A. Surface mining
Production development
Minig of ore
Restoration during production
General operations
B. Underground mining
Production development
Mining of ore (by methods)
Haulage of ore
General opertions
C. Beneficiation
Crushing
Grinding
Concentrating (by methods)
Waste and tailings disposal
Restoration during production
General operations
A. Surface mining
General expense
B. Underground mining
General expense
C. Benefication
General expense
The calculation of prescriptive costs is carried out in the case of the two
drill carriages of the company Atlas Copco, type Boomer H 104. These are
operating in the Sections I and II of the iron ore mine. Each of them has been
working in one of the above mentioned sections since August 1997.
The first calculation is based on the observation of the working diaries,
which are kept in each section and for each equipment separately. The
individual daily inspections which include the description of the actual state of
the machine with all defects and repairs are recorded there. In addition the time
and performance (drilled meters) values of the machine are recorded there at the
time of inspection. Defects and repairs are also understood as inspections.
Therefore it is possible to determine exactly how much a particular part has
worked, i.e. not only working time but also drilled meters.
The first calculation starts from these data which are based on the
observation of average service life of particular parts during the first four
months of the usage of machines in production.
The data recorded in the working diary of the Section I are listed in
Tables 1-6, they are arranged successively, according months. The tables
contain only data concerning defects and repairs since our aim was to determine
prescriptive costs. The data on unperturbed run were therefore omitted.
The first entry is the datum of an event, then the description of activity
in which the type of defect is included. The activity codes were assigned to the
individual activities in order to have better orientation in the data and to make
easy the subsequent processing. Other entries are: duration which represents the
hours worked of a machine and performance which indicates the total number of
drilled meters of a machine.
The other data concern the oil consumption which is the fuel for driving
aggregate, motor oil and hydraulic oil consumption. They are also included into
the items of prescriptive costs.
The summary calculation for Section I is listed in Table 7 in which the
following items are included: the list of activities with corresponding activity
codes, the number of exchanges of worn out or damaged parts, the unit prices
expressed as the cost needed for the replacement of a part of a machine and the
calculation of specific costs for time and performance unit. Both quantities are
given since then the work of identical machines in different workplaces can be
compared.
In Table 8 there are data taken from the table of summary data
concerning the consumption of drill material, especially drill rods and adapters.
The data are collected and given in the following order: the date (the time of
exchange of drill tools), the number of drilled drill holes and the total number of
metres drilled. These values are completed with the data on unit price and based
on this the second calculation of prescriptive costs of the Section I was done.
The values in Tables 9-13 are calculated in the same way as the values
in Tables 1-6, the given data concern the same type of the machine as in the
Section I which works in the Section II. Table 14 is the table of summary
calculation for the Section II.
Table 15 as well as Table 8 give the second calculation taken from the
table of summary data on the consumption of drill tools at the Section II.
The calculation of prescriptive costs is carried out on the basis of
information given in Tables 1-6 for the Section I and Tables 6-13 for the Section
II. In each table there is the date of an event which was the origin of costs and
the description of this event; there are also data about the total performance
from the time point of view and the performance, which are related to this event.
This is the total number of drilled metres. The data on the filling of fuel, which
is oil, filling of motor oil and filling of hydraulic oil. The amount is given in
litres.
The calculation, which is concentrated in Table 7 for the Section I and
Table 14 for the Section II, gives the list of activities which were the origin of
costs, denotation of activity codes which are used for clear processing. Unit
price is the price of repair, exchange of a tool and the like. The number of
repairs gives how many times a certain activity has been carried out during the
life time of a machine. The time gives the total number of hours worked of a
machine and the total performance gives the total number of drilled metres
during its running.
The result is the calculation of prescriptive costs I and the calculation of
prescriptive costs II
The prescriptive cost I is calculated for the unit of one hour worked and
prescriptive cost II is calculated for the unit of one metre drilled. In this way the
disproportion between the two different sections can be revealed and followed.
The sections have different working conditions, however the difference can also
be caused by the time usage of a machine and the final result then depends on
the performance - drilled metres during a certain time unit.
Table 8 for the Section I and Table 15 for the Section II give the
consumption of drill tools and adapter. The data for particular parts which have
been consumed are recorded in time. Each part has a record of its performance
expressed in the metres drilled and unit price. On the basis of this data the costs
for individual parts are calculated and also the average value is given in each
table.
Unit price
Prescripive cost II (7)
Performance
4. The Results
The manner of data processing is chosen taking into account the data
obtained from running records and also taking into account the requirement to
find out prescriptive costs in real conditions. As real conditions can be
understood the operation of two identical machines in different working sections
of the same organisations.
The calculation contains concrete data on activities related to the
formation of costs and concrete data on unit prices related to the above
mentioned activities. The prices are obtained either directly from the machine
operator or from the tables if a certain activity related to the origin of costs have
not been realised yet.
Sometimes the costs given by operator contain the data related to repairs
or to the solution of a problem and therefore price does not include the wages, it
includes only the price of a spare part. The values given in tables are corrected
and include wage costs which represent approximately 30% of the price of a
spare part.
It results from this calculation that prescriptive costs in the investigated
period were as follows:
As can be seen, the results of the two working sections are different
since the drill machines work in different geological and mining-technical
conditions. It appears that the costs of the Section I are 4.64 or 5.30 times
higher, if the calculations are done for one hour or one metre, respectively.
Further the two items adapter R32 and drill rod were followed. They are
classical consumption material used in drilling process. The first observation
was done directly in the section and the second one is from the mine technical
department.
23-08-97 Exchange of 3 10 65 0 0 0
hammer
Norm
| Average 2.22
| Average 9.97
| Average 1.40
| Average 3.73
4. Conclusion
The article has been oriented to describe estimation of the costs and
specially describing the operating costs of two drilling machines in the iron ore
mine. These two machines are new in the process of the extracting of iron ore.
For this reason it was necessary to find out all possible costs in order to know
influence of using drilling machines to all economy of the mining divisions.
Drilling machines are working in two divisions with not same
conditions. So all data were judged from this point of view.
Management of iron ore mine and especially management of mining
division now can effectively manage all operations and in same time can have
review about discipline of attendance of drilling machines. Like results is
decreasing of operating costs of drilling machines and can forecast possible
costs in new conditions or in different style of using.
Bibliography
[1] Gentry, D., W.: Mine Valuation: Technical Overview, Computer Methods
for the 80's In the Mineral Industry, Alfred Weiss, ed., AIME, New York,
pp. 520-535.
[2] Gentry, D., W. and O'Neil, T., J.: Mine Investment Analysys, by Society
of Mining Engineers of American Institute of Mining, Metalurgical, and
Petroleum Engineers, Inc, New York. 1984, pp. 103-151.
[3] Oswald, P., F.: Patterns of Cost Information, "Cost Estimating for
Engineering and Management, Chap. 3, W. J. Fabrycky and J. H. Mize,
eds., Prentice - Hall, Inc. Englewood Cloffs, NJ, pp.45-51.
[4] Stackhouse, E., E.: Cost Estimating, "Project and Cost Engineers'
Handbook, F. C. Jelen, ed., American Association of Cost Engineers,
Morgantown, WV, 1979, pp.2-l=2=19.