Conditional Probability # 3

Teacher(s): Brittanie Campos Subject: Math

Standard(s): ​Common Core, Arizona Career and College Ready Standards, ISTE Standards apply to this lesson

● A2.S-CP.A.5: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence utilizing
real-world context.
Objectives (Explicit): ​Use Bloom’s verbiage and “formula”

● I can recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday
language and everyday situations.
Evidence of Mastery (Measurable): ​An actual “product” /Include an explanation of how you are going to grade/grading
tool? (rubric, checklist, etc.)

Assignment #1: Class Survey Assignment

- Students will be graded on how you have demonstrated the learning targets. Using the Class Survey Data,
students will find two questions to compare on a two-way table. They will use the checklist to self-asses on their
assignment, and then will be assessed by a peer, and finally have the teacher asses them once they made
improvements on their submission based off the comments on their peer.

1. ​Diagrams and Tables of Data Self Peer Teacher

I can create a Venn diagram (appropriately scaled, see link),

a two-way table, two probability trees in which the branch
factors are reverses and a pictorial graph.

2. ​Determination and Interpretation of Data

I can determine and interpret probabilities of the P(A),

P(A∩B), P(A⋃B) in the context of two questions.

Also I can determine and interpret the probability P(A|B)

and P(B|A).

Finally, I can compare the values of P(A)*P(B) and P(A∩B).

What does this mean?

3. ​Conclusions of the Data

Why did you choose these questions? Is there any

relationships between the two questions?

4. ​Reflections

What were some difficult tasks for this assessment? What

are some misconceptions students may have? That is, what
were common mistakes students would do? What can they
 do to overcome these misconceptions? Do you have any
further questions?

Using a ✓ +, ✓, or ny (“Not Yet”) to asses on how this assignment has demonstrated how well you know this
learning targets.

Assignment # 2: Research Paper/RAFT Essay​:

- Students will go to kaggle.com to gather categorical data and find the relationship of two factors to write a
research paper about, including information on a claim, evidence, and a reasoning.

✓+ ✓ ✓-

Claim ❏ Makes an accurate and ❏ Makes an accurate and ❏ Claim is not present.
complete claim. complete claim. ❏ Multiple claims are
❏ Includes the rationale or made.
purpose for the
investigation.

Evidence ❏ Provides appropriate ❏ Provides appropriate ❏ Insufficient evidence

(evidence that supports the
claim) and sufficient
evidence from the
investigation to support
the claim.
❏ Includes statistical
considerations
(evidence that supports the
claim) and sufficient
evidence from the
Investigation to support the
claim.

Reasoning ❏ Gives reasoning on hot the
evidence supports the
claim.
❏ Includes appropriate and
sufficient scientific
principles.
❏ Discuss the limits or
sources of error to
evidence collection.
❏ Suggest future work for
additional evidence to
support the claim.
❏ Includes impact of the
evidence on the rationale
or purpose for the
investigation.
❏ Provides reasoning that ❏ Reasoning inconclusive.
explains how the evidence ❏ No scientific nor
leads you to make the claim principles utilized
you have made. ❏ Limits or sources of error
❏ Includes appropriate and not discussed.
sufficient scientific ❏ Future work not
principles. suggested.
❏ Discuss limits or sources of
error to evidence collection.
❏ Suggest future work for
additional evidence to
support the claim.
Sub-objectives, SWBAT (Sequenced from basic to complex): ​Content and Language objectives – action verbs such as
write, list, highlight, etc.)

- Evaluate and receive evaluation from peers on how they create diagrams and write their reasoning.
- Write a reflection about any misconceptions and mistakes they could make and improve on.
- Create two-way tables from a spreadsheet (Excel or Google Sheets) from data
- Obtain real data from Kaggle.com to analyze as two-way table
- Create a Claim-Evidence-Reasoning of how to determine if two factors are independent

Key vocabulary: Materials/Technology Resources to be Used:

Categorical Data​: Categorical data is when numbers are - Notebook

collected in groups or categories. - Pencil
- Computer
Categorical Variables​: Categorical variables represent types of - Blank Paper
data which may be divided into groups. Examples of - Rubrics for Assignment #1 and #2
categorical variables are race, sex, age group, and educational - Kaggle.com
level. - Google Docs/Word Document

Opening (state objectives, connect to previous learning, and make ​RELEVENT​ to real life) ​ENGAGE/ “hook” the
students

Day 1

(2 min) Opening:

- (Before Class) Pass out rubric to class.

- (2 min) Have Directions posted on the board.
- Directions: Take out pencil and laptop for today’s activity.

In Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

str
uc Day 1 Day 1
tio
Assignment # 1: Instructions Assignment # 1: Instructions
na
l - (5 min) Provide instructions to students on - Listen to instructions
In today’s activity. - Ask questions if needed
pu - “Today, you will be utilizing everything - Use their notes to recall how to create
t you learned to complete two tasks. The diagrams, and to use additional probability
first assignment will be to use the pivot rule and multiplication rule.
table you created from the class survey
data. A checklist has been provided for Day 2
you to help you complete the
assignment.”
 - Break down checklist to them and
explain each part individually.
- Allow time for students to ask
questions.
- If needed, have a student repeat the
directions back to you to check
understanding.
Day 2
(AfterAssignment # 1: Peer Evaluation and
Improvements)​ Assignment # 2: Instructions (Part 1)
(After Assignment # 1: Peer Evaluation and
Improvements)​ Assignment # 2: Instructions Part
1
- Listen to instructions
- Follow along on their own
computer.
- Ask any questions they may have.
Day 4
Assignment #2: Instructions (Part 2)

- (10 min) Before having students make - Listen to instructions

improvements to Assignment # 1, provide - Understand how their paper must be
instructions for the next assignment and go over formatted
the expectations for the assignment by breaking - Have examples available to them to use as a
down rubric. reference.
- Show them video of Kaggle.com - Know the expectations of what their rough
- As you provide instructions, show them draft should look like.
how to do it on a projector as well. - Know the rubric that they will be graded on.
1. Go onto Kaggle.com
2. Find a CSV database of your
choosing with
CATEGORICAL (not
numerical) data to analyze.
3. Find two factors to determine
independence​.
4. Write your research question.
5. Make a ​tentative​ claim.
- Show the steps by using an example
(Medical No-Shows Appointment)
- Allow time for questions.

Day 4

Assignment #2: Instructions (Part 2)

- (15 min) Show students how to write their

rough draft and break down the rubric with
them.
- Explain that the Rough Draft must have
7 paragraphs. The following paragraphs
should:
 1. Provide the rationale and
purpose of the investigation.
2. Describe how the data was
collected.
3. Give evidence of the
independence (two-way tables,
mathematical principles).
4. Give reasoning on how the
evidence supports the claim.
(​you may adjust your claim.)
5. Discuss limits or sources of
error in data collection.
6. Describe the impact of the
evidence on the rationale or
purpose of the investigation.
7. Suggest future work to seek
additional evidence that would
validate your claim.
- Reference back to Callback Research
paper if they are unsure of how their
paper should look like. Also show
examples of previous students work.
- Break down rubric.
- Allow time for questions

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations?

Students Who Need Extra Guidance​:

- Have them highlight or underline each product they should have.

- Provide copies of examples of each assignment for each student.

Advanced Students:

- For Assignment # 1, allow them to use websites or tools in order to create their diagrams.
- For Assignment # 2, instead of a simple research paper, have them do a RAFT. Supply them with a
powerpoint on Edmodo that explains to them what a RAFT is and have them create a Raft instead.
Emphasize that they will still be graded by the same rubric.

G Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

ui
de Day 2 Day 2
d
Pr Assignment # 1: Peer Evaluation and Improvements
ac
tic - (1 min) At the beginning of class, explain to
e students that now they must swap a paper with
the person next to them, if they do not have a
person next to them, swap them with other
people that do not have a partner.
- (5 min) Have students evaluate each other’s
papers and write comments and any questions
on paper.
- (8 min) Have students exchange papers back to
their owners and then have them talk about the
comments and critiques they made.
- Make sure that student interaction is
positive and productive. Students
should not be making any mean or
unproductive comments.
- (10 min) Have students make improvements to
their paper based off the comments off their
peers. If student does not need to make any
improvements have them turn in their paper to
their teacher and work on the next assignment.
Day 7
Assignment # 1: Peer Evaluation and
Improvements
- Swap paper with classmate next to them.
- Evaluate each other’s papers. Students
should:
- Write Positive comments or
Suggestions
- Correct any mistakes
Students should note:
- Write mean comments
- Draw on another person’s paper
- Write nothing as well, if there is no
need for corrections, tell the person
what they did well on.
- Swap papers back to original owners and go
over comments and critiques made on each
other’s paper.
- One person should spend 4 minutes
going over a paper.
- Make improvements on paper based on
peer’s comments or turn in paper to teacher.

Assignment # 2: Peer Evaluation and Improvements Day 7

- (1 min) At the beginning of class, explain to Assignment # 2: Peer Evaluation and

students that now they must swap a paper with Improvements
the person next to them, if they do not have a
- (1 min) At the beginning of class, explain to
person next to them, swap them with other
students that now they must swap a paper
people that do not have a partner.
with the person next to them, if they do not
- (5 min) Have students evaluate each other’s
have a person next to them, swap them with
papers and write comments and any questions
other people that do not have a partner.
on paper.
- (5 min) Have students evaluate each other’s
- (8 min) Have students exchange papers back to
papers and write comments and any
their owners and then have them talk about the
questions on paper.
comments and critiques they made.
- (8 min) Have students exchange papers back
- Make sure that student interaction is
to their owners and then have them talk
positive and productive. Students
about the comments and critiques they made.
should not be making any mean or
- Make sure that student interaction is
unproductive comments.
positive and productive. Students
- (10 min) Have students make improvements to
their paper based off the comments off their
 peers. If student does not need to make any
improvements have them turn in their paper to
their teacher and work on the next assignment.
should not be making any mean or
unproductive comments.
- (10 min) Have students make improvements
to their paper based off the comments off
their peers. If student does not need to make
any improvements have them turn in their
paper to their teacher and work on the next
assignment.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation/Check for Understanding…how are you going to know if EACH student
is ready to move onto independent practice? And how are you going to ​different​iate if they do not understand?

For Students Who Need Extra Guidance​:.

- Pay attention specifically to these students.

- 1st Hour: Eduardo, Michelle, Dayne, Gio, Jorge M
- 3rd Hour: Andy, Daniela, Williams, Nicki, Diana, Johnathon, Jackie
- 6th Hour: Liz, D’Angelo, Julian, Maleeya, Rosemary
- 8th Hour: Brandon, Amina, Madison, MelodyNavi, Matt, Celina, Mari

Ind Teacher Will: ​Be specific Student Will: ​Be specific

epe
nde Day 1 Day 1
nt
Assignment # 1 Assignment # 11
Pra
ctic - (45 min) Have students work on Assignment #1 - Work on Assignment #1 in class.
e in class. - Raise their hand if they need any help.
- Help students who raise their hand. - Do Assignment #1 as homework if they do
- Watch for any misconceptions and not finish it by the end of class.
correct students if needed. - Common Misconceptions:
- If students have not finished by the end - Do not know how to create diagrams
of class time, have them finish the of categorical factors such as light
assignment as homework. and dark hair, unlike categorical
factors that simply come in yes or no
Day 3 questions.
- Split by two factors instead of one
Assignment #2: Part 1
for the tree diagram
- Have students work on Assignment #2 (Part 1) - Venn diagram on link looks off.
independently once they are done with
Day 3
Assignment #1.
- Students will be allowed to work on Assignment #2: Part 1
Assignment #2 in and out of class.
- Work on Assignment #2 (Part 1)
- Possible Mistakes:
 - Students may ask for help on - Wrong Variables or Variables or
Assignment #2. mislabeled.
- Unspecified Probabilities
Day 4 - 6 - Data is wrong due to math going
wrong somewhere.
Assignment #2: Part 2
- Using Numerical Data instead of
- Watch and observe students as they work on Categorical
Assignment #2 (Part 2). - Needs a different factor for Count
- Help those who raise their hands and clarify any Value
misunderstandings if they arise often in class. - Turn in Assignment #2 (Part 1) into Google
Survey so that the teacher may know that
Day 7 - 8 they are ready to move on.

Assignment #2: Part 3 Day 7 - 8

- Have students complete their final draft to turn Assignment #2: Part 3
in to teacher.
- Once students are done with Assignment #1 and - Work on final draft
Assignment #2, they will turn it in for a grade - Ask teacher for clarification on any part if
and may be allowed to work on needed
homework/projects for other class, or catch up - Turn in Assignment #2 when it is finally
on any work they currently have in math. finished.
- Work on other projects or homework.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation ​How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations?

For Students Who Are Missing Work or Tests:

- If students finish Assignment #2, have them catch up on any current missing assignments or
tests by doing it in class as other students work. In addition, have them re-evaluate on any tests.

Closing/Student Reflection/Real-life connections: ​What connections will students make to their real lives? What
essential questions will they reflect on in their closure of the lesson?

At the end of the unit, have students write the positive and negatives about this unit, and how they felt they did overall
on this unit.