INTRODUCTION: POLITICAL SURVEYS ARE NOT MISLEADING

Ayon kay Natalie Angier, “Survey shows that surveys never lie.”

Ang political survey ay isang paraan ng pagkalap ng sample o koleksyon ng mga

opinyon tungkol sa isang paksa na kinukuha sa napili o random na grupo ng tao na
naglalayong suriin ang kanilang opinyon. Sa pamamagitan nito, nabibigyan ang mga
tao ng pagkakataong maipahiwatig ang kanilang saloobin o pananaw sa isang bagay.

Political survey is the process of gathering a sampling or collection of opinions on

a subject, taken from either a selected or random group of persons, as for purpose of
analysis. They allow the public to ‘speak truth to power’, putting the lie to political spin
and keeping our political leaders accountable.

Halos araw-araw ay may lumalabas na bagong poll na naglalaman ng

magkaibang resulta na nagdudulot ng pagdududa/pangamba at pagkalito sa mga tao
kung ano nga ba ang dapat nilang paniwalaan. Bakit nga ba tayo nagsasagawa ng
mga political surveys?

Nearly every day, a new poll comes out touting a different result, leaving voters
wondering what to believe.

Ayon sa Gallup, ang political surveys ang nagsasabi sa atin kung ano nga ba
ang pananaw at saloobin ng proporsyon ng isang populayon tungkol sa isang bagay o
paksa. Maaari itong maging kapaki-pakinabang sa pagtulong sa iba’t ibang kultura na
maunawaan ang isa’t isa dahil binibigyan nito ang mga tao ng pagkakataong
makapagsalita para sa kanilang sarili sa halip na hayaan ang mga sikat na artista na
magsalita para sa kanila.

According to Gallup, political surveys, tells us what proportion of a population has

a specific viewpoint which are simply a measurement tool that tells us how a population
thinks and feels about any given topic. This can be useful in helping different cultures
understand one another because it gives the people a chance to speak for themselves
instead of letting only vocal media stars speak on behalf of all.

Two of the common ways in which a political survey can be conducted is through
telephone and face-to-face interviews. Telephone surveys are done by randomly
selecting digits from a list of numbers in a computer and within each landline household;
one adult was designated by a random procedure to be the respondent in the survey.
Face-to-face surveys are normally conducted using geographic-area probability
sampling which is done by dividing a given population into blocks of roughly equal
population density. Each block is further divided until a single a single household is
chosen at random. Other methods include mail, online and self-administered surveys.
 INTRODUCTION: POLITICAL SURVEYS ARE NOT MISLEADING

Ayon naman sa The Guardian, sa konstekto ng pag-aalinlangan o kawalan ng

katiyakan, ang mga poll ay nanatili bilang pinakamaaasahang paraan ng pagsusuri ng
opinyon ng publiko. Paniwalaan niyo man ang mga ito o hindi, ang mga pre-election
political opinion polls o survey ay naging bahagi na ng panahon ng halalan sa Pilipinas.
Bagamat may pag-iingat na bumabalot? Sa SWS at Pulse Asia, nananatili pa rin ang
katotohanang ang dalawang pollsters na ito ay nakapagtatag na ng reputasyon? Sa
pagtukoy ng resulta ng mga nakaraang halalan sa Pilipinas. …..

According to The Guardian, within the context of uncertainty, polls remain as the
most reliable method of assessing public opinion. Whether you trust them or not, pre-
election political opinion polls and surveys are part of the Philippine election season.
While there’s certainly a healthy dose of caution surrounding the SWS and Pulse Asia,
the fact remains that both pollsters have a track record of predicting the outcome of past
Philippine Presidential elections with reasonable accuracy, especially at forecasting the
winner and candidate rankings. During the 2004 elections, both SWS and Pulse Asia
correctly predicted the winner and the candidates’ respective rankings in the result of
their final pre-election surveys which predicted Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to win in the
elections and in 2010 elections, SWS nailed down the 42% of votes received by
Benigno Aquino III.

May tatlong bagay na hindi natin maiiwasan dito sa mundo – ang kamatayan,
buwis at mga taong nagrereklamo o di sumasang-ayon sa resulta ng pre-election
surveys.

There are three inevitable things in this world - death, taxes and people
complaining about results of pre-election surveys. Those critical of surveys - usually
poorly performing bets and their followers - accuse pollsters of influencing the decision
of the electorate in favor of a particular candidate. We believe that political surveys are
not misleading. According to Erwin Rafael, an instructor of sociology at the UP College
of Social Science and Philosophy, “It’s highly unlikely for survey firms to manipulate the
conduct of their research because the two main agencies, Pulse Asia and SWS have
professional scientists in charge so it’s hard to say that they manipulate the results.”
While De La Salle University political science professor Richard Heydarian agreed,
saying that the only way survey research can be manipulated is if the major firms
collude and tamper with the results to which he thinks is impossible because these
survey institutions don’t just operate during elections. They are long term businesses
which also conduct surveys on other issues like consumer issues or specific policy
issues. Since it’s not just elections, he thinks that it’s foolish for these companies to just
let specific candidates manipulate or buy them.

Polls aren’t predictions. They provide a snapshot of what people are thinking at
that specific moment in time. Polls play an important role in presidential primaries,
 INTRODUCTION: POLITICAL SURVEYS ARE NOT MISLEADING

influencing the strategies of the candidates, the coverage they receive from the media
and the choices of voters who want to avoid wasting their vote. The University of
Manchester’s Ford said: “As always, voters should view the polls as a usually reliable,
but possibly imperfect, indicator. Polling is not an exact science. We can never know for
sure that they will get the exact shares right. But they usually give a fair account of the
overall state of play – and they are rarely wrong when one party has a very large lead.

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