Chapter 1

The Problem and its Background

1.1 Introduction

Freight rail transport is the transportation of cargo using trains and

permanent rail facilities like stations and tracks. This involves using specialized

trains that can handle the weight of cargo. Freight rail exists in every other

ASEAN country except the Philippines. Most of the rail networks were built during

the colonial period when westerners owned the region(Inquirer.net,2014). Freight

rail is made up of a locomotive that hauls the rail flat cars which hold the cargo.

Most cargo nowadays are contained in standard shipping containers for ease of

transport in what is known as containerization(​Edmonds, John, 2017)​. This

allows containers to be transported from one mode to another without needing to

open the container. Although other south east asian countries continued to

maintain and operate their rail operations, the Philippines instead opted to

focused on roads instead of maintaining the PNR(MMUTIS, 1999).

Metro Manila encompasses the cities of Manila, Quezon City, Caloocan,

Las Piñas, Makati, Malabon, Mandaluyong, Marikina, Muntinlupa, Navotas,

Parañaque, Pasay, Pasig, San Juan, Taguig, and Valenzuela, and the

municipality of Pateros. Together the NCR (National Capital Region)

encompasses 700 km​2 ​and has a population of 24,650,000 (Demographia World

1
Urban Areas, 2018). Metro Manila is the 4​th largest urban area in the world by

population, and contributes 36.2% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product. With

a high population density, Metro Manila is a global city and the nation’s center of

government, education, and most importantly economy. In Metro Manila there is

a huge demand of raw and processed materials, goods and services that are

served mainly by the road infrastructure in the megacity(Workman,2018).

The government and many large land development firms are heeding the

government’s calls to decongest Metro Manila. Many new developments are

rising in the central Luzon area, the largest is the Clark Green City being built by

the government through the Bases Conversion and Development Authority, the

same company who developed one of the Central Business Districts of Metro

Manila namely Bonifacio Global City. Other new developments in central Luzon

include Capital Town Pampanga by Megaworld, Alviera in Porac, Pampanga by

Ayala land, The Infinity Pampanga by ACBI Realty, Clark Global City by Udenna

Corporation, and Mimosa Clark by Filinvest. With these new developments on

place, the Central Luzon area is poised to become the next major economic

region in the Philippines(Sinclair,2018).

Rapid urbanization in Metro Manila has also led to an increase in demand

for goods that are normally serviced by cargo trucks which in turn adds to the

congestion in Metro Manila roads (Patria,2012). Now that many business entities

2
are moving to central Luzon, demand for goods will also rise in the region

perpetuating trade between Metro Manila and Central Luzon. There will be a

need for affordable and environmentally friendly cargo transport between Mega

Manila and Central Luzon when all these projects are finished. The PNR used to

operate the northern rail segment as a commuter rail but these operations were

discontinued, nevertheless the old infrastructure was retained like the old

stations. The PNR also still owns the land where the rails used to be (Supnad,

2018).

The PNR also formerly operated freight rail operations from Manila to

Laguna​(Patalinghug, E. E., et al., March 2015)​. The operations were

discontinued around 2003 due to lack of funds. As of October 4, 2018 the

government is planning to revive freight rail operations between the port area in

Manila and Calamba, Laguna again(Amojelar, 2018).

This analyzed the government’s efforts in reviving freight rail operations

and possible expansion of this project to the PNR north rail segment. The study

will also check the flow of goods covering the area the PNR north rail will pass

through. This research will also analyze the effects of said operations on the

traffic situation in Metro Manila, if the changes will be minimal or drastic.

3
1.2 Statement of the Problem

Since the government and business entities are planning to heavily invest

in areas of central Luzon, the demand for an efficient and environmentally

friendly mode of cargo transport is most appreciated. The current mode of

transporting goods between central Luzon and Manila involves road cargo

transport, which is environmentally unfriendly and contributes to heavy traffic in

the Metro Manila area.

According to the PNR head office in Tutuban, the government will revive

the north commuter rail first before reviving the north freight rail. This research

aims to assess the following:

● What is the possible volume of the goods that will pass through the north

rail segment?

● What is the current volume of the goods that pass through roads in Metro

manila bound for central luzon specifically tarlac?

● Will there be a noticeable effect on traffic congestion in Metro Manila if

freight rail operations are revived?

1.3 Objective of the Study

The specific objectives of this study are to:

● To create a spatial model of the north rail segment.

4
 ● To obtain the possible volume of cargo that will pass through the north rail

segment.

● To determine the possible number of trucks that would be lessened.

● To determine the effects of freight rail operations on the traffic situation in

Metro Manila.

General Objective

● This study aims to analyze the effects of freight rail operations on Metro

Manila traffic. To do this a model will be constructed according to the

demands of each region in central Luzon. The possible volume of cargo

that will pass through the north rail will be converted to the number of

trailer trucks that will be lessened.

1.4 Significance of the Study

As the Philippine government is investing in central Luzon, new central

business districts like the Clark Green City in Tarlac will spur more development

in said area which would result in more demand for goods. Freight rail operations

between Tarlac and Manila will lessen the container trucks needed to transport

cargo thus easing traffic in Manila, while being the cheaper option. The study will

also determine if reviving freight rail operations would affect the traffic condition

in Metro Manila.

5
1.5 Hypothesis

● The revival of PNR northrail freight rail operations will have a positive,

although minimal effect on the traffic condition in Metro Manila.

1.6 Conceptual Framework

1.7 Scope and Limitations

This study will be narrowed to the following:

● The PNR rail segment that will be evaluated will be from Tutuban station

to Tarlac City station only

6
 ● This study will not include political or economic aspects that might hinder

operations

● This study will focus on the traffic situation of Metro Manila only due to

truck congestion, specifically the truck ban roads.

1.8 Assumptions

These assumptions will be used to simplify the study.

● Trains will not break down or encounter accidents during the trips

● The PNR freight rail operations will have no conflict with the PNR

commuter rail

● Manila city will be modeled as zone 1 while Tarlac city will be modeled as

zone 2

● For the gravity model parameter, alpha( α ) will be set to 2.0

● All cargo trade between Manila and Tarlac will pass through rail only

● A train will carry 30 flatcars

1.9 Definition of Terms

● Containerization - is a system of ​intermodal freight transport using

intermodal containers (also called shipping containers and ​ISO

containers).

● Flat cars - it is a rolling stock that consist of an open flat deck mounted on

a pair of trucks.

7
● Freight Rail Transport - is the use of ​railroads and ​trains to transport

cargo​.

● Freight Transportation - ​is the physical process of ​transporting

commoditie​s and ​merchandise goods and ​cargo​. Referred to also as

carriage transport or “Logistics”.

● Intermodal Freight transportation - it is a system of transportation that is

characterised by the subsequent use of different transportation modes for

moving goods.

● PNR - Philippine National Railways. ​is a ​state-owned ​railway company in

the ​Philippines​, operating a single line of track on ​Luzon​.

● Transportation Engineering - ​is the application of technology and ​scientific

principles to the planning, functional design, operation and management

of facilities for any mode of transportation in order to provide for the safe,

efficient, rapid, comfortable, convenient, economical, and environmentally

compatible movement of people and goods.

● Traffic Congestion - characterized by slower vehicular traffic and

prolonged queueing as a result of an extensive increase in traffic demand

● TEU - Twenty foot equivalent, the unit of the small intermodal container, a

normal intermodal container will be 2 TEU

● Urbanization - ​the process by which towns and cities are formed and

become larger as more people begin living and working in central areas.

8
 Chapter 2

Review of Related Literature

2.1 Brief History of PNR 

On ​March 24, 1891 ​the first section of the railroad from Manila to Bagbag

is completed and put to commercial operations. On November 24, 1892 the

entire line from Manila to Dagupan, with a total length of 195.4 kms, is completed

and put into commercial operations. It was granted and later approved to Don

Edmundo Skyes of the Ferrocarril de Manila to Dagupan (Manila to Dagupan

Railway) and later become The Manila Railway Company, Ltd.

In old Manila Tutuban Central Terminal was known as the Terminal of the

Philippine National Railways. The main purpose of this railways is to transfer

people and their goods. It is known for two lines, first is to the Northern part and

the second is the Southern part. In northern part the route is from center of

Manila towards to Baguio and the line ended in San Fernando, La Union. While

the south line stops at Legazpi in Bicol Region.

During World War ll, due to the japanese invasions in the Philippines,

most of the improvements on the rail network were destroyed.

9
 During the American Colonial period, a new American Colonial Insular

Government made plans to build and upgrade the existing railways. “Manila

Syndicate” was known as the collection of ten Philippine infrastructure

Companies tasked to manage the project.

Around May 28, 1906, the Philippine commission granted the construction

of new railways in Cebu, Panay and Negros. Its route starts from Iloilo City to

Roxas City in Capiz. The administration of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo worked on

the rehabilitation of rail transportation in the country (Philippine National

Railways, 2018).

2.2 Urban Development in Metro Manila

In the Philippines, some of the locals from the provinces are now being

urbanized and it is also following a similar trend in other emerging urban regions.

Metro manila is known as the core of urbanization. Manila was envisioned as a

city of efficient road systems, neoclassical buildings and parkways (Burnham,

2014) but in reality urban growth was excessive which resulted in overpopulation.

With many people moving to Metro Manila from the provinces, economic activity

also moved which resulted in Metro Manila being the center of economic activity

in Luzon. Since Manila is the center of economic activity, there is a high demand

10
for raw materials, and Manila also exports plenty of manufactured goods which

are being imported by the other provinces.

Year Population

2000 1,068,783

2007 1,243,449

2010 1,273,240

2015 1,366,027

2018 1,460,760
Table 2.1 Tarlac Province Population Forecast

Manila city has a population of​ 24,650,000

According to a research by​ JICA​,

2.3 Urban Development in Central Luzon

Central Luzon will be soon developed into the next business destination

by local and foreign firms. An example of a new development in the area includes

the Clark Green City, a new planned community being built by the government in

Capas Tarlac, it has an area of 9,450 hectares which will eventually

accommodate 1.2 million residents. The new development is expected to

become the next international business district in the Philippines which is

estimated to generate around 1.57 Trillion pesos worth of economic activity

annually and create 925,000 jobs upon its full development (Sinclair,2018). Other

11
examples near Clark include Clark Global City, Alviera, The Infinity, and Mimosa

Clark. These developments are easily accessible by road through the SCTEX

and will be connected to the PNR northrail which links the capital region and

Central Luzon(Abad R.,February 13, 2018). Clark is now the top choice for office

space outside Metro Manila, as many new developments are being built in the

area (Francia, 2018).

Other developments in the Central Luzon area includes Capital town

Pampanga in San Fernando which is located on PNR land. With these

developments, Central Luzon is poised to become the new economic center of

Luzon with plenty of manufacturing businesses operating in the area.

Manufacturing operations would require lots of raw materials that would be

transported from other provinces while exporting manufactured goods.

2.4 Former Freight Operations of PNR from Metro Manila to Laguna

International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) operated the cargo

trains transporting containers from the port of Manila to Laguna using the PNR

tracks from 1998 until it was discontinued in 2003. ICTSI operates a cargo depot

in the port of Manila and a container depot in Calamba, Laguna. These two

depots were linked by rail with ICTSI using PNR freight rail to transport cargo

from Manila to Calamba. The route was discontinued due to the trains not

running at the desired speed and because of the deteriorating conditions of the

12
PNR rail tracks. Furthermore, it required long turnarounds and waiting times

because only one train set was in operation. The current level of freight traffic

through Batangas is too small to consider it a major source of potential base

traffic for freight railway(Patalinghug, E. E., et al., March 2015).

2.5 Effect of Container Trucks on the Traffic Situation in Metro Manila

Last 2014, there are 79,840 trucks and 13,615 trailers that drives along

the streets of manila daily. It is estimated that 500-700 truck trips per day is

equivalent to a single freight train trip (Amojelar, 2018). This was remedied by the

truck ban imposed by the MMDA which limits container trucks to specific roads

and times of the day. Although traffic congestion was lessened, it resulted into

port congestion(Llanto, G. M., December 2016). Although the manila truck ban

which was specific to Manila City was lifted on september 13, 2014, the Metro

Manila Council reimplemented it on 2015. The said truck ban exempts the cargo

trucks loaded with perishable and agricultural cargo, as well as the trucks

registered under Terminal Appointment Booking System (TABS).

Based on PPA(Philippine Ports Authority)

13
 Source: PPA Quarterly Statistical Report

http://www.ppa.com.ph/?q=content/statistics-1

Figure 2.1 Summary of Port Statistics Until 3rd Quarter of 2018

The annual container traffic which passes Manila to North Luzon and back

is 3,748,982 TEU which is far more greater than the traffic flow to Southern

Luzon thus, which exemplifies the need for freight rail operations.

14
2.6 Related Laws

Manila City Ordinance No. 8336. A city law set forth by the government,

signed on February 5, 2014, in which implements a truck ban from 5:00 am to

9:00 pm in Manila and denies all types of trucks to park on the streets within the

time period. It affect cargo trucks and other vehicles such as ​lorries, vans,

tankers or other delivery vehicles with a gross weight of 4.5 tons. The truck ban

resulted to a congestion in the Port of Manila and delays on deliveries because of

the adjustments of the truckers to the law. For months, the ordinance undergone

some modification and a few resolution have been implemented which in turn

allows the trucks to travel during daytime on certain routes only. A total truck ban

have been implemented along Epifanio delos Santos Avenue (EDSA), between

North Avenue Quezon City to EDSA Magallanes, that cannot be traversed at any

time of the day but with the exception of Sundays and during holidays.

MMDA Regulation No. 17-001. Entitled “Establishing A Uniform “Light

Trucks” Ban in Metropolitan Manila” have been adopted, approved, and signed

on March 7, 2017. Due to the ongoing traffic congestion, light trucks have been

deemed traffic contributors by the government because of its own nature as a

truck that lessens the road capacity. Light trucks such as motor vehicles with a

gross capacity weight of 4.5 tons or lower are banned from navigating EDSA and

Shaw Boulevard (Mandaluyong City and Pasig City) from 6:00am-10:00am and

5:00pm-10:00pm, Mondays to Saturdays except holidays.

15
 2.6.1 Specific Truck routes

SOURCE: Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.5,

October, 2003

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324585804

Figure 2.2 Common Truck Routes

According to the EASTS Journal Vol.5, Roads most commonly utilized by

large trucks are the southbound R1 and R3, eastbound R6, the northbound R8,

16
and the circumferential roads C2 and C5. Small trucks mainly use C2 and EDSA,

and the southbound R1 and northbound R8 routes.

2.7 Effects of Freight Rail in Traffic

Nowadays, traffic congestion is a hassle to everyday living. Because of

heavy traffic being experienced everyday by commuters, said commuters

experience difficulties in carrying out their daily duties. Traffic congestion has led

to economic losses amounting to 3.5 Billion pesos a day(JICA, February 26,

2018). Freight rail transportation has an important role in improving the

sustainability and efficiency of freight transport mainly due to bypassing the need

to utilize cargo trucks. In other countries, freight rail transportation compliments

other forms of freight transport reducing congestion on all forms.

2.8 PNR North Rail Segment

The PNR with the North Rail has a plan that by 2020, as part of a bigger

development plan for Clark and other cities outside Metro Manila, which is to

revive the PNR commuter with a line to the North. The Phase 1 of the PNR North

project is a 38-km. segment spanning from Tutuban to Malolos, Bulacan. It will

have 10 stations and is expected to service 340,000 people daily during its

opening year. With this line, commuters from Tutuban will reach Malolos in as

little as 35 minutes. The contract for the construction supervision and tender

assistance consultant for PNR Clark Phase 1 (Tutuban-Malolos) was signed last

17
01 December 2017. This paves the way for the start of construction of the

Tutuban-Malolos segment. NSTren Consortium, the project’s construction

supervision consultant, will supervise the construction which will start in

December-January.Phase 2, a 70-km stretch from Malolos, Bulacan to Clark,

Pampanga with seven new stations, has been approved by NEDA. The project

will make it possible to reach Clark International Airport from Metro Manila in as

little as 55-minutes.

Source: GOV.PH

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_National_Railways#/media/File:Philippine

_National_Railways.png

Figure 2.3 Rail Routes of Former PNR

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2.9 Freight Flow Modelling

Freight flow modelling is the process of modeling a transportation system

showing the flow of freight in the said transportation system. This model will take

into account the road and rail networks, existing or proposed, and the nature of

the goods being transported by the network. For rails, the rail model is divided

into four areas of competitiveness depending on the speed of the train and the

axle load required(J. H. Havenga and W. J. Pienaar, 2012 April). These will then

be dependent on the needs of the area near the network. Examples include

areas near agricultural needing fast train speeds because of the nature of the

goods being transported, while areas near quarries needing slower speeds of

transport.

2.9.1 Spatial Models and Interactions

​A spatial model is an idealized representation of the area being considered,

with nodes representing origins and destinations of freight, with the connecting

lines representing interactions between the nodes and the arrowheads

representing the flow of goods.

2.9.2 Origin-Destination Model

The origin-destination model is a type of model that takes into account the

origins of goods and its destination. The data is presented in an origin-destination

matrix that shows the demand per unit time that needs to be shipped from the

19
origin of the good to the destination(Banks J., November 1, 2001). Each O/D

model is evaluated from node to node in a rail network model.

2.9.3 Usage of Gravity Model

The gravity model is a model that provides an estimate of the volume of

flow such as goods and services between two or more locations. It is derived

from Isaac Newton’s law of gravity, where the gravitational attraction between

two masses is calculated. The gravity model is an analog to Newton's law. In the

field of social science it is used to predict the commodities between

cities(Rosberg, 2017). It also takes into account the population sizes of two

places and their respective distance. From the gravity model of trade, the gravity

model is further modified to estimate trip generation between two places with

many parameters being added and defined(Banks J., November 1, 2001).

2.9.4 Socio-Economic Factors in the Gravity Model

In the Philippine setting, different areas tend to have different

socio-economic conditions which affects the trade between them. In related

researched prepared for the National Anti-Poverty Commission, factors cited by

the paper includes Gross Domestic Product (GDP), road quality, households with

electricity, unemployment rates, and households with access to water as major

influences on the economic potential of an area. These factor affects the

20
economic potential of an area, and thus affects the volume of trade between said

areas(Beronilla N. L.,Esguerra P. J. H.,Ocampo J.).

2.10 Application of the O/D Matrix and Gravity Model

In the paper titled “A System-wide Study of the Logistics Industry in the

Greater Capital Region”, the author used data provided by JICA to estimate the

growth of future traffic flow in the NCR. The JICA reports used were complete

O/D matrices detailing the interaction of truck freight flow between provinces

neighboring the NCR. Using the present data from JICA he then extrapolated the

values of the freight flow and assumed values of 50%, 75%, and 100% of the

shifts to rail. He showed the effects of the shifts in terms of average travel speed

on the roads affected. The method he used to extrapolate data was through a

linear extrapolation using the population growth from the PSA.

Another study was conducted by the National Anti-Poverty Commission

entitled ”The Economic Potential via the Gravity Model of Trade” where the

factors affecting economic potential are analyzed. The gravity model formula

used was

21
 where Tij = trade value, imported by municipality/town/city j from i (in mn₱)

K = constant (~ gravitational constant, a parameter/coefficient)

M = GDP of municipality j (importer) (in mn ₱)

X = GDP of municipality i (exporter) (in mn ₱)

R = Road quality E = % Household w/ electricity

U = Unemployment rate

W = % Household w/ access to water

D = Distance in km a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h , k, l, m = parameters/coefficients

j = subscript for the importing municipality

i = subscript for the exporting municipality

This version of the formula was used to estimate the economic potential of

a province, while the parameters/coefficients were estimated using regression

analysis specifically the Poisson regression. Using the Poisson regression

analysis and date from the National Statistics Office and National Statistics and

Coordination Board (NSCB), the parameters were estimated using an

open-source called R base package. To simplify the study, researchers assumed

that a province trades only with its adjacent provinces. Because although in real

life a province can trade with any other province regardless of distance, the study

will become tedious and complicated to model.

The researchers were able to determine the values of the variables in their

version of the gravity model. The results were tabulated in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1. Summary Statistics of Regional Data Set

22
 Minimum 1st Quantile Median Mean 3rd Quantile Maximum

Trade (₱ mn) 0.0 218.3 2214.7 6300.4 6192.6 33158.2

Distance (km) 0.0 186.0 566.0 691.9 1176.0 1582.0

Regional GDP 65.7 162.0 215.1 451.7 518.3 2813.8

(₱ bn)

% Paved Road 47% 66% 78% 77% 88% 100%

Unemploymen 3% 5% 6% 6% 8% 11%
t

% HH w/ Water 8% 24% 33% 32% 37% 62%

% HH w/ 56% 78% 82% 82% 87% 99%

Electricity

Using R-based package the researchers were able to estimate the

parameters for their version of the gravity model. The results were tabulated in

Table 2.2.

Table 2.2. Variables and Parameter Estimate

Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|) Significance

Constant 4.9590 (K) 0.0138 358.5300 0.0000 ***

(~Gravitational
Constant)

Exporter Area 0.0006 (a) 0.0000 316.0000 0.0000 ***

GDP [X]

Importer Area 0.0005 (b) 0.0000 178.9200 0.0000 ***

GDP [M]

Distance (km) -0.0003 (m) 0.0000 -92.4800 0.0000 ***

[D]

% share of 0.6493 (c) 0.0182 35.7800 0.0000 ***

paved road [R]
(importer)

Households w/ 0.0000 (f) 0.0000 143.8200 0.0000 ***

electricity [E]
(exporter)

Unemployment 6.0830 (h) 0.1298 46.8700 0.0000 ***

[U] (exporter)

23
 Chapter 3

Research Methodology

3.1 Introduction

Freight rail transportation allows a fast delivery of goods using existing rail

infrastructure. This study about the traffic analysis of container trucks on the

revival of freight rail operations of the PNR north rail segment using a freight flow

model will enable the researchers to identify the effect of the freight rail

operations on the current traffic situation on Metro Manila. This study is only an

initial and partial assessment.

A freight flow model was constructed which will represent the north rail

segment. Demand for goods will be the input together with the geometric design

of the model. The demand will be represented by the number of round trips a

train will undertake per day and this trips will correspond to the volume carried by

that train in a day.

3.2 Data Collection

The researchers will obtain data from government agencies.

Data needed:

● Route map of container trucks in relation to the MMDA truck ban

24
 ● Trips per day of the freight train that used to traverse the south rail

● Volume of container trucks in the truck ban lanes

● Model of the locomotive used for freight operations

The researchers will set a goal where if the number of trucks reduced

reaches the mark, the proposed PNR Northrail freight operations will be

considered to have an impact on traffic congestion in Metro Manila.

With the data received from the surveys, it will be inputted to the model

formula and the output will be the volume of trucks that will be decreased from

truck ban roads.

3.2.1 Route Map of Container Trucks

Because of the MMDA truck ban, the roads container trucks can pass

through is limited. For some modifications and some resolutions, it has been

implemented and allow the trucks to travel during day time in certain routes only.

The total truck ban occurs in Epifanio Delos Santos Avenue (EDSA) between

North Avenue Quezon City to Edsa Magallanes but with the exception of

Sundays and during holidays.

25
SOURCE: MMUTIS 1999

Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study, Department of

Transportation and Communications, Metro Manila

Figure 3.1 Truck Banned Routes and Location of Survey Stations

3.2.2 Actual Traffic Flow of Container Trucks

The traffic flow is obtained from MMDA officials or other related agencies

or private entities, where the data to be obtained will be the volume of container

trucks that go through the truck lanes. This volume is the basis of traffic

congestion on Metro Manila which resulted in the truck ban at specific times of

the day and limiting the roads the container trucks are allowed to pass through.

26
3.3 Freight-Flow Model

First the area that will be served by the PNR northrail will be evaluated,

with each important station condensed into nodes representing the freight

demand in the particular station. Then Metro Manila area will also be converted

to a single node. The flow of freight will be evaluated from the whole Metro

Manila region going to the Central Luzon nodes and back.

3.3.1 Origin-Destination Matrix

The ​Origin Destination matrix will set as the movement of cargo in a

certain area. The physical infrastructure of the PNR northrail will be modeled,

with central Luzon acting as one node. The model will serve as the total freight

demand of central luzon specifically the provinces of Bulacan, Pampanga and

Tarlac. The rail freight model will represent the volume of cargo the train can

carry together with the number of round trips. The inputs (represented in

trips/day) will be tabulated in an O/D matrix where parameters for the gravity

model will be taken.

3.4 Gravity Model

The gravity model is based from Newton’s Law of universal Gravitation.

Researchers in the social sciences noticed a trend where social factors like

trade, human migration, and information mimic Newton’s Law. It is important to

27
see why this happens, and it lies in the variables used in the formula. The gravity

model takes the form of

kM i M j
F ij = Dij

Where F is the interactions between the populations of Mi and Mj and is

inversely related to the distance between the populations Dij with k serving as a

proportionality constant. This model does not accurately depict specific

interactions and is instead a macroscopic model used to predict interactions.

The gravity model used to estimate the number of trips will

P iAjF ij P iAjF ij
Tij= ΣAjF ij Tij= ΣP jF ij

Where Tij will be the number of trips between nodes i and j while Pi is the trip

productions in node i and Aj is the trip attractions in node j. Fij is the impedance

between nodes i and j and is usually represented as a function of Cij and α. Cij

here can be a cost function, travel function, etc between i and j while α is a model

parameter. α in the original gravity equation of Newton is 2.0 but in the gravity

model it is not the case. Actual values of α varies but the value is near 2.0 most

of the time and setting α = 2.0 is a good estimate.

28
 3.4.1 Gravity Model Parameters

For the gravity model, its base form is straightforward and does not

include socioeconomic factors. This led to a factor Kij to be included in the

formula to account for the socioeconomic status of the area. The resulting

formula thus becomes

P iAjF ijKij P iAjF ijKij

Tij= ΣAjF ijKij Tij= ΣP iF ijKij

3.5 Analysis of Data

For the gravity model, the first step is to obtain data on the areas being

represented by the spatial model. In here the socio economic factor Kij, the trip

attraction variables Pi and Aj, the variable function Cij, and the model parameter

α will be obtained. Kij, the socioeconomic factor, will be determined from previous

economic studies about the philippines so that the gravity function will closely

resemble the actual conditions of the study area. For the variable function Cij, it

can be adapted depending on the needed output, where it can be any function

between travel cost, comfort, friction of travel, and so on. For this study Cij will be

a function of travel cost while the model parameter α will be set to 2.0 according

to related literature by Bankes, J. H.. The input data will be first tabulated per

node so that it will be easy to input it into the formula. The outputs will be

tabulated in an O/D matrix and will be the representations of the trips per day that

passes through the nodes.

29
3.6 Spatial Interactions

After creating both O/D matrices for rail and road, these will be mapped

onto a spatial model. The spatial models of each will be compared per percent

shift to rail and actual road conditions. The net decrease will be analyzed and will

be the basis for such decrease in traffic congestion.

30
 CHAPTER 4

Presentation of Data and Analysis

This aims to identify the amount of cargo that will pass through the north

rail segment starting from Tutuban station to Tarlac city station. By using the

Gravity model, the amount of cargo will be obtained and it will be used to predict

the degree of interaction between two places with the given parameters. As the

Philippine government is investing in central Luzon, it will result to a spur of

development in the said area that will result in more demand for goods. The

methodologies presented in the previous chapters were utilized in gathering the

results.

In this chapter, our group presented and examined the data gathered from

the public offices on site and online. Online resources will mostly come from the

electronic Freedom of Information website for each respective agency.

4.1 Study Area

The study area is composed of Manila city and Tarlac city, where the trip

attractions of both areas will be based from their respective exports and imports.

The data of Tarlac will come from the Special Export Processing Zone located in

San Miguel, Tarlac. The data of Manila will be based from the Manila

International Container Port because land-based cargo movement occurs here,

instead of the Manila harbor.

31
 The exports were obtained from a white paper on foreign and domestic

export/import statistics by the PSA. Only the values for domestic exports/imports

were used. As only years 2005, 2008, 2012, and 2015 were available on their

website, the data was extrapolated using both sinusoidal method and rational

method through CurveExpert.

​ FIGURE 4.1: Tarlac Export

​ FIGURE 4.2: Tarlac Import

32
 FIGURE 4.3: Manila Export

FIGURE 4.4: Manila Import

The predicted values for 2018 is as follows:

● Manila exports : 6,110,308,833 USD

● Manila imports : 21,409,816,268 USD

● Tarlac exports : 314,327,809 USD

● Tarlac imports : 489,684,117 USD

33
 To better fit the values of exports and imports to the economic potential

factor, which is expressed in million pesos, the figures will be also expressed in

million pesos leading to:

● Manila exports : 305,515 mn PHP

● Manila imports : 1,070,491 mn PHP

● Tarlac exports : 15,716 mn PHP

● Tarlac imports : 24,484 mn PHP

Imports and exports of the respective provinces is used because it is

these parameters that influence the flow of cargo. The amount of cargo thus

influences the number of trips a train should undertake.

For the trips going to Tarlac from Manila, the attractions will be the imports

of Tarlac because the volume Tarlac imports will attract trips from Manila, while

the attractions to Manila will be the exports of Manila because Manila’s exports

will be trips to Tarlac.

For trips going to Manila from Tarlac, the attractions of Manila will be the

the imports of Manila while the other attraction variable will be the exports of

Tarlac.

4.2 Evaluation of the locomotive

The locomotive model being used by the PNR is the General Electric

U15C, manufactured in 1992.

34
 4.2.1 Previous uses of the locomotive

The locomotive was used to haul cargo during the operation of the south

freight rail. When this was discontinued, it was then used for commuter

operations. It is also called the PNR 900 class that is popular in the Philippines,

and was also used in the Bicol Express Passenger train.

4.2.2 Capacity of the locomotive

The locomotive is rated for 1500 Horsepower, to calculate the cargo it can

carry, It is important to know its tractive effort, given by the formula derived by

Hay (1978) as:

375 × P × e
T ractive Ef f ort = V

where:

P = power in horsepower

e = efficiency constant (a good starting value is 0.82 according to Hay)

V = speed in mph

For the U15C, the tractive effort at 8 mph is calculated at 57,656 lbf

meaning the locomotive can haul cargo that weighs 57,656 lbf or 256,467 N.

For the number of containers a train can carry, the only major limiting factor is the

length of the train and its speed, considering the whole line is at-grade and

intersects roads.

35
 A locomotive carrying 30 flatcars is sufficient for the needs of the PNR and

it is in the pipeline for the revival of the southern freight line.

4.3 Evaluation of the volume of trucks

The volume of trucks in the truck ban lanes were obtained from the MMDA

Metropolitan Manila Annual Average Daily Traffic. To acquire an estimated value

in 2018, the data from AADT 2012 to 2017 was used to forecast the volume of

trucks.

4.3.1 Trucks on the truck ban routes

In consideration for the truck ban routes, only the A. Bonifacio Avenue will

be used to determine the volume of trucks going north.

Year Number of Trucks

2012 9,509

2013 10,038

2014 9,023

2015 6,736

2016 6,554

2017 9,278

2018 7,148
Table 4.1 AADT 2018 Forecast

36
 Figure 4.5 AADT 2018 Forecast

Based from the forecasting results, the volume of trucks is 7,148 using

linear regression through excel.

4.4 Gravity model parameters

4.4.1 Cost functions

For the rail, the cost function will be based on this table from a JICA study

Table 4.2 Rail Freight Rates

Source: Philippine National Railway

Fij will thus become (cost * distance in km) raised to -α which is 2.0.

F ij = (0.75 × 105)−2.0

37
As Manila and Tarlac is 105 km from each other, F ij of the model will be

1.6125 x 10−4 .

4.4.2 Socio-economic factor

The factor Kij will be based on a study by the National Anti-Poverty Commission

which also used the gravity model albeit with many factors discussed in chapter 2

Source: Beronilla, N. L., Esguerra, P. J. H., & Ocampo, J. (NA) (2013).

Figure 4.6 Estimated Average or Economic Potential

Looking at the map, Manila and Tarlac almost has the same economic

potential. The K ij of Manila will be 2,462.33 and the K ij of Tarlac will be taken

38
as the average of the economic potentials of its neighboring municipalities with

the value of 1,472.94

4.5 Trip attractions and interactions using O/D matrix

4.5.1 Trips generated

Table 4.3 O/D Matrix

O/D MATRIX

Origin
Destination
Manila Tarlac

Manila 0 15,365

Tarlac 6,832 0

The trips were calculated using the formula of the gravity model. For the

trips from, the calculation is as follows:

−4
T tm = (1070491×1472.94×1.6125×10
15716×1070491×1.6125×10 ×1472.92
−4 −4
)+(24484×1472.94×1.6125×10 )

T tm = 15, 365 trips

−4
T tm = (1070491×2462.33×1.6125×10
305515×24484×1.6125×10 ×2462.33
−4 −4
)+(24484×2462.33×1.6125×10 )

T tm = 6, 832 trips

Trips from Tarlac to Manila were estimated to be 15,365 while trips from

manila to tarlac were estimated to be 6,832.

39
4.6 Conversion of train trips to truck trips using TEU as a standard

A locomotive carrying 30 flatcars will have the equivalent of 60 TEU

because 1 flatcar can carry 2 TEU. 1 round trip will allow a train to carry 60 TEU

worth of freight from Manila to Tarlac, and 60 TEU again for the return trip. As

trucks can carry 2 TEU per trip, one train is estimated to be equal to 30 trucks.

Since the earlier gravity model used a cost factor for trains, the estimated

trips were train trips. Since the trip attractions and productions were in terms of

million pesos per year, the trips will be converted to daily trips resulting in 42 trips

per day from tarlac to manila while there will be 19 trips per day from manila to

tarlac. In total, there will be 61 trips that will pass through the north rail segment.

61 train trips is then equal to 1,830 truck trips.

4.7 Analysis on the reduction of trucks in A. Bonifacio street

A standard trailer truck can carry 2 TEU in the form of the forty foot

equivalent container or the FEU. The equivalent amount of trucks lessened is

approximately 30 trucks per train trip.

Since it was estimated that 1,830 truck trips are needed daily to ship cargo

between Tarlac and Manila, it will also take 1,830 instances of trucks to do the

job passing through A. Bonifacio street. From the estimate of trucks that will pass

through A. Bonifacio street taken from the MMDA AADT, 7,148 truck pass daily

through the street. Since 1,830 trucks trips will be lessened, there is an estimated

25.60% reduction of trucks in A. Bonifacio street.

40
 CHAPTER 5

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION

5.1 Conclusion

The study resulted in an estimation of the trips needed to be made

between manila and tarlac using the gravity model formula. With the data

gathered from numerous sources it is estimated that 1,830 truck trips are made

daily between manila and tarlac.

The number of trips estimated must be viewed with caution, for the ways

of projecting the data to 2018 estimates are imperfect. An example is estimating

the imports and exports of manila and tarlac, where multiple methods like the

rational method and sinusoidal method were used by curveexpert because it fits

the data points the best. Another would be the reliance on imperfect data to base

assumptions on like the assumption that the locomotive will carry 30 flatcars as it

is based on the plan of the government which is subject to change.

The results suggests that more trips go to Manila from Tarlac that vise

versa. A reason behind this could be because of Manila's very large economy

generating many trip attractions, and its large population. A large population

tends to import more products leading to more trip attractions for the gravity

model.

41
 Overall the study was able to estimate that the trucks that pass through A.

Bonifacio street will be decreased by 25.60% if the PNR northrail were to be

revived and the trade between Tarlac and Manila will be conducted through the

northrail.

Based on the truck traffic reduction of 25.60% the researchers have

arrived to the conclusion that PNR Freight will result in a significant reduction of

traffic congestion on A. Bonifacio and the the rest of the roads to North of Manila.

5.2 Recommendations

This study focused specifically on trade between Tarlac and Manila

utilizing the PNR northrail for freight operations, to further improve the research

here are some recommendations:

● future researchers can try different approaches to the gravity model

as the model has many forms

● more nodes can be added representing trade between Manila and

the other central Luzon provinces that would also appreciate the

PNR northrail.

● updating the study with possible new information on the revival of

the PNR northrail like new locomotives that can carry more than 30

flatcars

42
● obtain up-to-date data from government agencies like MMDA, PNR,

and PSA

● Gather more data about the actual traffic survey on site

● More specifications in the amount of traffic lessened by improving

and updating the data gathered

43
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 Appendix C

Budgetary Requirements

47
Appendix D

Gantt Chart

48