GIS FOR MULTI HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

Social Vulnerability Assessment

using Spatial Multicriteria Analysis

In this exercise we will evaluate the social vulnerability of the various parts of
RiskCity, using a set of indicators. These indicators are considered independently of
the hazard types.

In contrast to physical vulnerability, which arises from the potential for

environmental extremes to create adverse physiological changes, social vulnerability
arises from the potential for these extreme events to cause changes in people’s
behavior. People can vary in their potential for injury to themselves and their
families. They also vary in the potential for destruction of their homes and
workplaces, as well as the destruction of the transportation systems and locations for
shopping and recreation they use in their daily activities. The discussion below
emphasizes census data but it also is important to examine other archival sources
such as school records, immigration services, local aging agency, special needs
registries, property tax records, facilities locations. In addition, consult local social
service providers (government and NGO) and churches to identify vulnerable
populations.

Vulnerability indicator Linked to administrative units

Population Population density Mapping units
Percentage single parent Mapping units
household
Percent population below Mapping units
poverty level
Age Percentage young children

Vulnerable Groups Vulnerability Indicators

Female headed households Percent female headed households
Elderly Percent individuals over 65
Percent of elderly households
Low income/high poverty Percent of households below poverty level
Percent of households below HUD standards
Renters Percent of households residing in rental housing
Percent of households residing in rental housing by type of dwelling
units

14-1
Case study: GIS for multi hazard risk assessment

Ethnic/racial/language minorities
Children/youth
Social vulnerability hot spot analysis
A
Percent of individual from Black, Hispanic, and other minorities
Percent of non-English speakers
Percent of population in selected age groupings
Percent of households with dependency ratios above a specified level
Areas with combined social vulnerabilities

When we calculate the number of people that need hospital treatment we will
consider the worst case scenarios. This means for earthquakes, we will consider the
effect of the maximum number of buildings that might collapse during an intensity
IX earthquake. And for the technological disaster we will consider scenario 2
(BLEVE). We consider the effects that the disaster occurs at night or during the day,
and take the maximum values.
In order to calculate the number of people that need hospital treatment, carry out the
following procedure.


 In the table Seismic_risk_population calculate the number of people
that need hospital treatment for a night scenario and a day
scenario,and then take the maximum values, using the following
formulas:
IX_people_hospital_night:=(0.2+0.05)*IX_night_pop
IX_people_hospital_day:=(0.2+0.05)*IX_day_pop
EQ_hospital_req:=max(IX_people_hospital_night,IX_people_hospital_day)

 What is the total requirement for the entire city, for this worst case
earthquake scenario?
 Display the results in an attribute map. Stretch this map between 0 and
100.
 

Now consider the scenario of an explosion in the chemical industry as we dealt with
in exercise 10. The results of this are stored in the table:
Technological_risk_results.
In the table Technological_risk_results we will calculate the number of people that
need hospital treatment for a night scenario and a day scenario. We will use an
additional factor of 0.1 that indicates the fraction of buildings that might collapse
after the explosion:


 In the table Technological_risk_results also calculate the number of
people that need hospital treatment for a night scenario and a day
scenario. We will use an additional factor of 0.1 that indicates the
fraction of buildings that might collapse after the explosion:
IX_people_hospital_night:=(0.2+0.05)*0.1*IX_night_pop
IX_people_hospital_day:=(0.2+0.05)*0.1*IX_day_pop
 Then take the maximum values, and name the output column:
Te_hospital_req:
 What is the total requirement for the entire city, for this worst case
technological disaster scenario?
 Display the results in an attribute map. Stretch this map between 0 and
100.
 

14-2
 Case study: GIS for multi hazard risk assessment

As you can see the spatial patterns of the two scenarios are quite different.
Why is that?
What is the worst scenario: earthquake or explosion? Is it also realistic to take into
account the earthquake scenario, in order to evaluate the capacity of hospitals?
We need now to take the maximum value of people requiring hospitalization for
each of the possible hazards.


 In the table Mapping_units join with the table Seismic
Risk_population and read in the column EQ_hospital_req.
 In the table Mapping_units join with the table
Technological_risk_results and read in the column TE_hospital_req.
 Calculate a column (hospital_req) with the maximum hospital
requirement per mapping unit taking into account both earthquake and
technological disasters.
 Display the results in an attribute map. Stretch this map between 0 and
100.
 

Next we would like to find out where the hospitals are.


 Find out in the table mapping_units how many hospitals there are in
the city.
 Make a raster attribute map Hospitals. Check the capacity of
treatment of patients from the accompanying table Hospitals.
 

The raster map Hospitals will be used as the source map for the distance calculation
to the nearest hospital. We will also calculate so-called Thiessen polygons, that
indicate for each hospital the area that is closer to it than to any other hospital.


 Now you can make the distance map. Carry out the Operation:
Distance, and select : input map Hospitals. Type the output map:
Distance_to_hospital. Select a precision of 1. Select the option:
Thiessen Map, and type the output map: Area_hospital.
 Check the resulting maps Distance_to_hospital and Area_hospital.
What is the maximum distance to a hospital? Is the map
Distance_to_hospital a realistic one?
 

We can now calculate the total required capacity of patients in case of the worst case
scenarios, calculated earlier for the five hospitals, and their area of influence.


 Cross the raster map Area_hospital. With the raster map
Mapping_units, and name the output cross table
Hospitals_mapping_units.

14-3
Case study: GIS for multi hazard risk assessment

 In the cross table Hospitals_mapping_units, join with the table

mapping_units and read in the column hospital_req.
 Next select Columns/Agregation and select column Hospital_req,
function SUM, group by Area_hospital, Output table: hospitals and
column: Required.
 Open the table Hospitals and compare the capacity of the 5 hospitals
with the required number of places in case of a major earthquake.
What can you conclude?
 

Where to plan new hospitals

In the previous section we have seen that there are places where there is a large
shortage of hospital treatment places in case of a major disaster like an earthquake in
the RiskCity. Now we will evaluate where it would be best to locate new hospitals.
This is based on two aspects:
 Reduce the distance and travel time to the nearest hospital
 Make sure that there is match between the capacity and the required
number of hospital places
For the calculation of the distance to the nearest hospital, the distance map we
calculated Distance_to_hospital is not useful, as it doesn’t differentiate between the
roads and the built-up areas. Therefore, we want to calculate the distance to the
hospitals only along the roads, and not through the mapping units themselves. We
can do that by including a weight map in the distance calculation

 Calculate in the table mapping_units a column weight (with a value

of -1) using the following formula:
Weight:= ifundef(hospitals,-1,0)
 Make an attribute map Weight from this column and the raster map
Mapping_units. A negative weight value means that distance will not
be calculated for these.
 The roads themselves need to have a weight value of 1. You can do
that with the following formula:
Weights:= ifundef(weight,1,weight)
 Now you can make the distance map. Carry out the Operation:
Distance, and select : input map Hospitals. Select the option Weight
map and select the map Weights. Type the output map:
Distance_along_roads. Select a precision of 1.
 Compare the maps Distance_to_hospital and Distance_along_roads.
What is the maximum distance to a hospital?

 Finally, find out the optimal locations and the optimal capacity of new
hospitals in such a way that within the area closest to the hospitals all
expected patients can be treated in the hospital. Which procedure
would you follow?
 

 Find out the optimal locations and the optimal capacity of new
14-4
 Case study: GIS for multi hazard risk assessment

hospitals in such a way that within the area closest to the hospitals all
expected patients can be treated in the hospital. Which procedure
would you follow?
 

 A similar kind of approach could be adopted for the planning of

emergency shelter areas in case of an earthquake? Describe
conceptually, and if possible technically how you would solve this
problem.
 

14-5