letter
1038/nature21402
Theory of chaotic orbital variations confirmed by
Cretaceous geological evidence
Chao Ma1, Stephen R. Meyers1 & Bradley B. Sageman2
Variations in the Earth’s orbit and spin vector are a primary control
on insolation and climate; their recognition in the geological record
has revolutionized our understanding of palaeoclimate dynamics1,
and has catalysed improvements in the accuracy and precision of
the geological timescale2. Yet the secular evolution of the planetary
orbits beyond 50 million years ago remains highly uncertain,
and the chaotic dynamical nature of the Solar System predicted
by theoretical models has yet to be rigorously confirmed by well
constrained (radioisotopically calibrated and anchored) geological
data2–4. Here we present geological evidence for a chaotic resonance
transition associated with interactions between the orbits of Mars
and the Earth, using an integrated radioisotopic and astronomical
timescale from the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin of what is
now North America5. This analysis confirms the predicted chaotic
dynamical behaviour of the Solar System, and provides a constraint
for refining numerical solutions for insolation, which will enable
a more precise and accurate geological timescale to be produced.
Analytical and numerical models of the planetary orbits predict
that the motion of the Solar System behaves chaotically3,4. As a conse-
quence, our ability to use these models to extend astronomical solu-
tions into the distant past, beyond 50 million years ago, is limited by
an extreme sensitivity of model results to knowledge of present-day
astrophysical parameters4 (such as the planetary ephemeris). The
Earth’s chaotic motion is primarily governed by a subset of secular
resonances, the most important of which are (s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) and
(s4 −​  s3) −​  (g4 −​  g3), which involve the fundamental frequencies for the
Earth and Mars6; these frequencies are associated with the precession of
the perihelion (g3 and g4 terms) and the precession of the node (s3 and s4
terms). At present, (s4 −​  s3) =​  2(g4 −​  g3) is manifested as an eccentricity
cycle 2.4 million years (Myr) long and a 1.2-Myr-long obliquity cycle
(these are also known as the ‘grand cycles’)2.
Solar System dynamic modelling predicts a disruption of the
(s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) resonance in the geological past4, and the estab-
lishment of a new (s4 −​  s3) −​  (g4 −​  g3) resonance (1.2 Myr eccentricity:
1.2 Myr obliquity). However, the timing of the disruption is sensitive to
model assumptions; it has been predicted to occur sometime between
50 and 100 Myr ago4,7. Numerous studies have attempted to find this
‘transition zone’ in geological data2, without success. If the stratigraphic
record could provide evidence for the precise time at which disruption
of the (s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) resonance occurs, this would (1) verify the
chaotic behaviour predicted by the analytical and numerical Solar
System models2,4,6, (2) allow identification of the correct theoretical
model4,7,8, and (3) provide a critical constraint for refining the astronom-
ical solutions, and thus enhance their application for high-resolution
geological timescales beyond 50 Myr ago.
A recently developed integrated radioisotopic and astronomical
timescale from the Cretaceous Western Interior Basin5 (the Niobrara
Formation) offers this opportunity. The Niobrara Formation provides
a robust and continuous astronomical signal9,10 that is constrained with
numerous coherent high-precision 40Ar/39Ar and 206Pb/238U ages5,
and it encompasses the time interval for which a transition has been
1
Department of Geoscience, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA. 2Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA.
4 6 8 | N A T U R E | V O L 5 4 2 | 2 3 f e b ruar y 2 0 1 7
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doi:10.
proposed4 from the (s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) to (s4 −​  s3) −​  (g4 −​  g3) reso-
nance state. Our assessment utilizes the floating 405,000-year (405-kyr)
astrochronology of ref. 10, derived from quantitative cyclostratigraphic
analysis of Formation Micro-resistivity Imaging (FMI; Supplementary
Table 1) data from the Libsack core (Colorado, USA; Extended Data
Fig. 1). Previous work demonstrates that FMI resistivity is a reliable
proxy for carbonate content10, providing a high-resolution measure of
the rhythmic stratigraphy that is pervasive in core and outcrop.
We chose to tune to the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle in this study
because astronomical modelling indicates that it is exceptionally stable
(in contrast to the other astronomical periods), with a drift of only
0.15% by the Late Cretaceous epoch4. The 405-kyr-tuned floating
astrochronology was statistically integrated with five high-precision
radioisotopically dated ash beds5 (Table 1; Extended Data Fig. 7;
Supplementary Table 2), which derive from time-equivalent strata
in Montana. These ash beds are correlated with the astronomically
tuned section using biostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy, and a statis-
tical methodology that explicitly quantifies correlation uncertainties5
(Table 1; see Methods). We subsequently tested the resulting radioiso-
topically anchored Libsack astrochronology against three theoretical
astronomical solutions: (1) the La2004 solution4 for eccentricity and
obliquity, (2) the La2010d eccentricity solution7, including an updated
obliquity solution that is consistent with La2010d (as documented in
ref. 11), and (3) the La2011 eccentricity solution8 (Fig. 1; Extended
Data Fig. 2).
The (g4 −​  g3) argument was extracted from the theoretical astro-
nomical solutions and the anchored Libsack astrochronology by
evaluating the amplitude modulation of the short eccentricity carrier
signal (approximately 110 kyr)2,4. Likewise, the (s4 −​  s3) argument
was extracted through evaluation of the amplitude modulation of the
approximately 40-kyr obliquity carrier signal2,4. This assessment was
conducted using multitaper-method time-frequency power spectrum
integration12,13 with a 500-kyr moving window (Extended Data Fig. 6),
which provides numerous advantages for the quantification of ampli-
tude modulation in complex geological records (see Methods). As
a secondary confirmation of the (g4 −​  g3) argument, the amplitude
modulation of the long eccentricity (405-kyr) cycle was assessed with
complex demodulation14 (see Methods for more details on ways of
evaluating resonance state).
During the interval 83–90 Myr ago, the 1.2-Myr obliquity amplitude
modulation is clearly observed in both La2004 and La2010d (Fig. 1c, e),
although these solutions are nearly anti-phased throughout most of the
record. Remarkably, this 1.2-Myr cycle is also observed in the primary
stratigraphy of the Niobrara Formation—the alternation of more
carbonate-rich and clay-rich members and submembers10 (yellow
boxes in Fig. 1b, c)—and it is also expressed in the Libsack FMI obliq-
uity amplitude modulation (Fig. 1d). In contrast to the obliquity results,
the short eccentricity amplitude modulation observed in La2010d
and La2004 predict starkly different behaviours: La2010d is char-
acterized by strong cycles of about 2.4 Myr throughout (Fig. 1i),
whereas La2004 (Fig. 1g) indicates a transition to approximately
 letter RESEARCH

Table 1 | Radioisotopic anchors used for the Libsack astrochronology

Libsack core10
Age in
Depth in Ash bed age nominal ATS RMSE
Ash beds Libsack core (m) (Myr ago) Method (Myr ago) Uncertainty (Myr) (Myr)
X1 X2 X3 Y Z
206 238
Desmoscaphites bassleri 2,085.83 84.43 U/ Pb 84.37 ±​0.15 ±​0.23 ±​0.28 0.06 +​0.34, −​0.22 0.120
40
Desmoscaphites erdmanni 2,088.27 84.55 Ar/39Ar 84.59 ±​0.37 ±​0.23 ±​0.44 −​0.04 +​0.40, −0.48 0.095
40
Clioscaphites vermiformis 2,103.82 85.66 Ar/39Ar 85.84 ±​0.19 ±​0.08 ±​0.21 −​0.18 +​0.03, −​0.39 0.188
40
Scaphites depressus 2,113.52 86.52 Ar/39Ar 86.44 ±​0.33 ±​0.12 ±​0.35 0.08 +0.43, −​0.27 0.103
206
Scaphites preventricosus 2,147.62 89.37 U/238Pb 89.37 ±​0.15 ±​0.23 ±​0.28 0.00 ±​0.28 0.094
S. preventricosus is chosen as the nominal anchor (see Methods).
For the uncertainties:
X1: Total uncertainties (±​2σ) for the radioisotopic age, including analytical, decay constant, and standard/tracer contributions (table 1 in ref. 5).
X2: Stratigraphic correlation uncertainties (2σ, derived from table 2 in ref. 5). These are updated from ref. 5 using the approach of Agterberg (ref. 24; see Methods).
X3: Total uncertainties from all sources (±​2σ) (X3 is derived by adding X1 and X2 in quadrature)
Y: Difference between the ash bed radioisotopic ages, and those predicted by the nominal astronomical time scale (ATS) anchored to the S. preventricosus age.
Z: Sum of X3 and Y. The maximum and minimum values (shown with boldface numbers) indicate the youngest and oldest possible displacement of the anchored timescale, given the different anchors
and all sources of uncertainty (at the 2σ level).
1
The root mean square error (RMSE) is (Yn)2 where each Yn is the difference between an ash bed radioisotopic age, and that predicted by a given anchored astronomical timescale. The RMSE value
n
for the S. preventricosus anchor (the nominal anchor) uses the Yn listed in Table 1. The Yn values for the other anchors are not displayed, but the resultant RMSE values are reported. Note that the
C. vermiformis anchor displays the smallest total uncertainty (±​0.21 Myr; column X3), but yields the largest RMSE disagreement with the other radioisotopic anchors (0.188 Myr). The S. preventricosus
anchor is selected as the nominal anchor owing to its small total uncertainty (±​0.28 Myr; column X3) and its better agreement with the other radioisotopic anchors (RMSE =​  0.094 Myr).

1.2-Myr cycles in the period 85–87 Myr ago, identifying a switch to with the La2004 solution, although anti-phased with it throughout
the (g4 −​  g3) =​  (s4 −​  s3) resonance state (see also figure 23 of ref. 4). The most of the record (Fig. 1g, h; Extended Data Fig. 3h–j). Considering
results from the La2011 eccentricity solution are nearly identical to all sources of uncertainty in the floating timescale anchoring (Table 1),
those from La2010d, with a slight phase shift (Extended Data Fig. 2). the Libsack FMI record can be shifted by −​0.48 Myr/+​0.43 Myr
The Libsack short eccentricity amplitude modulation reveals approx- (2σ; Extended Data Fig. 2), which allows for a range of plausible lead–
imately 1.2-Myr cycles in the oldest portion of the record, and a transi- lag relationships. The resonance transition is further verified by the
tion to approximately 2.4-Myr cycles 85–87 Myr ago (Fig. 1h), consistent Libsack long eccentricity amplitude modulation (Extended Data Fig. 4),

a Obliquity Short eccentricity

band power band power
Ash bed (Myr)
Age (Myr)

Ammonite

b c d e f g h i
Campanian Stage

Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack La2010d Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack La2010d
82 0 80 0 1.2 ×10–4 0 40 0 1.4 × 10–4 0 80 0 1.4 × 10–4 0 40 0 1.4 × 10–4

S.h. II
83

2.4 Myr
2.4 Myr ?
1.2 Myr

1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr ?

S.h. I
2.4 Myr

D.b.
84 84.37
84.43 S.l.
(0.28) D.b.
1.2 Myr

D.e.
1.3 Myr

84.59 D.e.
84.55
85 (0.44)
Santonian

C.c.
2.0 Myr

2.0 Myr
1.2 Myr ? 1.4 Myr 1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr

C.v. C.v. Resonance

1.1 Myr 1.1 Myr 1.2 Myr

86 85.84
2.0 Myr

85.66 C.s. transition

(0.21)
S.d.
86.44
1.3 Myr

1.2 Myr

87 86.52
(0.35)
S.d.
2.4 Myr
1.2 Myr
Coniacian

88
1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr

S.v.
1.2 Myr

89 S.p.
S.p.
89.37
(0.28)
90 Tur. S.m.

Figure 1 | Obliquity and short eccentricity band power for La2004, anchor in this study (see Methods). Each ash bed (except the anchor) is
La2010d and the Libsack FMI record. a, Timescale and biostratigraphy associated with two ages: the top number is the age calculated based on
(S.m. =​  Scaphites mariasensis, S.p. =​  Scaphites preventricosus, astrochronology (anchored to S.  preventricosus), while the bottom number
S.v. =​  Scaphites ventricosus, S.d. =​  Scaphites depressus, C.s. =​  Clioscaphites is the radioisotopic age for the bentonite layer, with its 2σ total uncertainty
saxitonianus, C.v. =​  Clioscaphites vermiformis, C.c. =​  Clioscaphites in parentheses (column X3 in Table 1). b, f, The astronomically tuned
choteauensis, D.e. =​  Desmoscaphites erdmanni, D.b. =​  Desmoscaphites and anchored FMI data (in units of ohm metre) from the Libsack core.
bassleri, S.l. =​  Scaphites leei III, S.h. I =​  Scaphites hippocrepis I, c–e, The obliquity band power extracted from the Libsack core, La2004
S.h. II =​  Scaphites hippocrepis II) and the radioisotopically dated horizons and La2010d. g–i, The short eccentricity band power extracted from the
for the Libsack core5,10. In total, five radioisotopic ages are used from the Libsack core, La2004 and La2010d. The approximately 1.2-Myr and
following biozones: D. bassleri, D. erdmanni, C. vermiformis, S. depressus, 2.4-Myr cycles are labelled with dashed arcs. Tur., Turonian age.
and S. preventricosus. S. preventricosus is selected as the nominal

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© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
 RESEARCH letter
which expresses the same shift from cycles of about 1.2 Myr to cycles
of about 2.4 Myr, and as predicted by theory, displays an opposite
phase to the short eccentricity amplitude modulation (Extended Data
Fig. 5). Combined with the high-precision radioisotopic constraints,
these observations provide rigorous confirmation of the existence of a
(g4 −​  g3) =​  (s4 −​  s3) resonance state in the Coniacian age.
It is clear that the remarkably pronounced approximately 1.2-Myr
rhythm in the primary stratigraphy of the Niobrara Formation (Fig. 1b)
is a consequence of the reinforcement of a 1.2-Myr obliquity forcing
by a 1.2-Myr eccentricity forcing, associated with the transition from
the (s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) to the (s4 −​  s3) −​  (g4 −​  g3) resonance state.
Furthermore, the high-resolution geochronology provided by 40Ar/39Ar
and 206Pb/238U ages from the unit eliminates the possibility that this
observed resonance transition is due to the presence of hiatuses5.
Although biostratigraphic information15–17 suggests two discontinuities
in the lower portion of the study interval, the consistency of radioiso-
topic and astrochronologic durations argues against the existence of
substantial gaps (column Y in Table 1; also see the discussion in ref. 5).
An alternative approach5 concluded that the maximum durations (95%
confidence level) for the two possible hiatuses, which occur at about
88.7 Myr ago and about 89.8 Myr ago in Fig. 1, do not exceed 0.50 Myr
and 0.26 Myr, respectively.
In contrast to other recent studies18,19, the Niobrara data indicate that
the nominal La2004 solution yields a better fit to geological data than
the nominal models of La2010d and La2011 (Extended Data Fig. 2),
which utilize a different planetary ephemeris (as well as other factors).
The Niobrara results also predict the absence of a strong 1.2-Myr obliquity
cycle at around 84.5 Myr ago (Fig. 1d) associated with the resonance
transition. Alternatively, there could be a transient change in the
sensitivity of the climate or depositional system to obliquity forcing;
high-resolution geochronology eliminates the possibility that this is a
consequence of hiatus5.
The cyclostratigraphy of the Niobrara Formation traces its legacy to
the pioneering work of G. K. Gilbert20, who interpreted the formation
as a product of astronomical forcing and used the Niobrara rhythms
to develop the first deep-time astronomical timescale. Fischer9 revived
interest in Gilbert’s work, and the Niobrara has since been a focus of
cyclostratigraphic inquiry. The importance of this stratigraphic unit
is now heightened by the observation that it preserves clear evidence
for the predicted chaotic behaviour of the Solar System, through doc-
umentation of the most recent resonance transition, thus overcoming
a major challenge in the development of astronomical models. The
insight gleaned from the Niobrara’s grand cycles will enhance our
understanding of astronomical–climate linkages throughout the history
of the Earth, and will allow for a new level of accuracy and precision
in the refinement of the geological timescale. Further, the fact that the
detected resonance transition coincides closely with the stratigraphic
interval of Ocean Anoxic Event 3 (OAE 3, the most enigmatic anoxic
event of all those identified during the Cretaceous21,22) may provide
additional support for a mechanistic link between the orbital forcing
of climate and major palaeoceanographic/biogeochemical events23.
Online Content Methods, along with any additional Extended Data display items and
Source Data, are available in the online version of the paper; references unique to
these sections appear only in the online paper.
received 15 February 2016; accepted 13 January 2017.
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Acknowledgements This study was supported by NSF grants EAR-1151438
(S.R.M.) and EAR-0959108 (S.R.M. and B.B.S.). We thank R. Locklair for his
cyclostratigraphic studies of the Libsack core, upon which this work builds. The
Libsack core was donated to Northwestern University by EnCana, Inc., thanks to
G. Gustason.
Author Contributions S.R.M. conceived the project, designed the study, and
developed the statistical software for the analysis. C.M. conducted the analysis
with guidance from S.R.M. and B.B.S. All authors interpreted the results and
wrote the manuscript.
Author Information Reprints and permissions information is available at
www.nature.com/reprints. The authors declare no competing financial
interests. Readers are welcome to comment on the online version of the
paper. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to
S.R.M. (smeyers@geology.wisc.edu).
Reviewer Information Nature thanks H. Pälike, S. N. Raymond and the other
anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Methods
Data analysis. The FMI record from the Libsack core (Supplementary Table 1) is a
proxy for carbonate content10, with a sample spacing of 3 cm, permitting resolution
of all potential precession, obliquity and eccentricity cycles4. The record is trans-
formed from depth to time using the bandpass-filtered 405-kyr-long eccentricity
cycle (figure 8 of ref. 10), and is subsequently placed on a uniform sample grid of
2.5 kyr (based on the median sampling interval) using piecewise linear interpola-
tion. This floating timescale (elapsed time, in kyr) is statistically anchored to age
(in Myr) using the radioisotopic data in Table 1 (Supplementary Table 2). The ash
from the biozone of S. preventricosus (89.37 ±​ 0.28 Myr ago; 2σ total uncertainty)
is selected as the nominal anchor (red star in Fig. 1a), because it is the most precise
date that also yields superior consistency between the radioisotopic and astronom-
ical ages for the other ashes (see RMSE in Table 1). The four remaining ash beds
are used to evaluate anchoring uncertainty (Table 1; Extended Data Fig. 2; see
Methods subsection ‘The Libsack core and the floating 405-kyr astrochronology’).
Assessment of obliquity and short eccentricity amplitude modulation is con-
ducted using multitaper-method time-frequency power spectrum integration12,13;
this technique was selected because it is relatively resilient to sedimentation rate
variability within each ‘tuned’ 405-kyr cycle. In addition, it provides two comple-
mentary approaches for quantifying the modulations: as raw ‘carrier signal’ power
(Fig. 1) and as the ratio of ‘carrier signal’ power to total power (Extended Data
Fig. 3e, j). The advantage of the former metric is that it excludes noise that may
be contributed from other frequency bands, while the latter metric allows one to
normalize for secular changes in the sensitivity of sedimentation to Milankovitch-
forced climate change. Although both approaches are useful, if the stratigraphic
signal is dominantly influenced by only one of the astronomical parameters, or
alternatively, by noise, the normalization approach will obscure detection of the
true amplitude modulation. When the results are consistent between methods, this
provides especially strong confirmation (Extended Data Fig. 3).
The time-frequency integrations use multitaper-method evolutive power spec-
tral analysis with three 2π​prolate tapers12, and a 500-kyr moving window. Within
each 500-kyr window, short eccentricity power is integrated from 0.007 to 0.012
cycles per kyr (142.9–83.3 kyr per cycle), and obliquity power is integrated from
0.018 to 0.037 cycles per kyr (55.6–27.0 kyr per cycle)4. To evaluate the ratio of the
‘carrier signal’ power to the total power, the total power is integrated from 0 cycles
per kyr to 1 cycle per 10 kyr. A linear trend is removed from each 500-kyr window
before spectral analysis.
As a secondary confirmation of the resonance transition, amplitude modulation
of the long eccentricity cycle (405 kyr) is evaluated using complex demodulation14,
with bandpass filtering to isolate the variance between 0.002 cycles per kyr and
0.0035 cycles per kyr (500–286 kyr per cycle; Tukey window), and application of a
Hilbert Transform to extract the amplitude envelope. During a resonance transi-
tion, the long eccentricity amplitude modulation should express the same change
from an approximately 1.2-Myr cycle to an approximately 2.4-Myr cycle, but with
an opposite phase to that expressed in the short eccentricity amplitude modulation
(see Extended Data Figs 4 and 5).
The astronomical models are evaluated across the same time interval as the
astronomically tuned Libsack FMI data, with 2.5-kyr resolution. All analyses use
the software Astrochron25,26.
The Libsack core and the floating 405 kyr astrochronology. The Libsack core
(40° 17′​ N, 104° 38′​ W, Extended Data Fig. 1) was drilled in the Denver Basin,
northeast Colorado by EnCana Oil and Gas in 2003. During the time of Niobrara
deposition (Turonian–Campanian), this site was located in the central portion of
the Western Interior Seaway (about 40° N, ref. 10), representing a hemi-pelagic
depositional setting. The strata are mainly interbeds of carbonate-rich and
carbonate-poor layers (ranging from limestone to marlstone and calcareous shale).
High-resolution petrophysical logs (FMI) that reflect carbonate content were stud-
ied by Locklair and Sageman (ref. 10) for the construction of an astronomical
timescale of the Niobrara Formation. Our assessment utilizes the floating 405-kyr
astrochronology of ref. 10. Tuning to the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle is preferred in
this study because astronomical modelling indicates that it is exceptionally stable
(in contrast to the other terms), with a drift of only 0.15% by the Late Cretaceous4.
The FMI record is transformed from depth to time using the bandpass-filtered
405-kyr-long eccentricity cycle (figure 8 of ref. 10), allocating one time control
point per cycle (with a constant sedimentation rate within each cycle). The tuned
record is subsequently placed on a uniform sample grid of 2.5 kyr (based on the
median sampling interval) using piecewise linear interpolation, and statistically
anchored to age (in Myr) as discussed below.
Anchoring the floating astrochronology with radioisotopic data. The floating
astronomical timescale (elapsed time, in kyr) is anchored to ‘absolute’ time (in Myr
ago) using five high-precision 40Ar/39Ar and 206Pb/238U radioisotopic ages from
ref. 10 (Table 1), following correlation of the dated ashes from their sources
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
letter RESEARCH
(time-equivalent strata in Montana) with the astronomically tuned section.
Radioisotopic uncertainties include analytical, decay constant, and standard/tracer
contributions (X1 in Table 1). Correlation of the radioisotopically dated ashes is
conducted using biostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy, with a statistical method-
ology that explicitly quantifies correlation uncertainties (see details in ref. 10). In
contrast to the Gaussian uncertainties associated with the radioisotopic ages, strati-
graphic correlation uncertainties are best characterized by a uniform distribution24;
the standard deviation of a uniform distribution is determined using 1 (D 2) ,
12
where D is the total duration of the correlative interval (in Myr).
Correlation uncertainties (X2 in Table 1) and radioisotopic uncertainties (X1
in Table 1) are combined in quadrature to yield the total uncertainty from all
sources (X3 in Table 1). Five independently dated ashes are available as anchors,
all of which can be compared to evaluate anchoring uncertainty. The nominal age
model is selected as the anchoring that has a small total uncertainty (column X3 in
Table 1), while simultaneously yielding better agreement between the radioisotopic
ages and those predicted by the anchored floating astrochronology, as assessed by
RMSE (see Table 1 for the formula).
The RMSE for the S. preventricosus anchor (the nominal anchor) uses the Yn
listed in Table 1. The Yn for the other anchors are not displayed, but the resultant
RMSE are reported. Note that the C. vermiformis anchor displays the smallest
total uncertainty (±​0.21 Myr; column X3 in Table 1), but yields the largest RMSE
disagreement with the other anchors (0.188 Myr). The S. preventricosus anchor is
selected as the nominal anchor owing to its small total uncertainty (±​0.28 Myr;
column X3) and its superior agreement with the other radioisotopic anchors
(RMSE =​ 0.094 Myr). Considering all possible anchorings and all sources of uncer-
tainty (2σ level), the youngest age model would shift the Libsack astrochronology
by −​0.48 Myr, and the oldest age model would shift the Libsack astrochrononology
by +​0.43 Myr (Table 1 and Extended Data Fig. 2d, h).
Some comments on the theoretical astronomical solutions. This study evalu-
ates three astronomical solutions4,7,8. The La2004 solution4 improves upon earlier
models (such as ref. 27) by employing a direct integration of the gravitational
equations, and through more careful consideration of dissipative contributions,
for example, related to the Earth–Moon System. Laskar et al.4 provide a complete
solution, including eccentricity, obliquity and the longitude of the perihelion from
the moving equinox (precession).
The La2010 study7 utilizes a newer planetary ephemeris (INPOP0828) for
estimation of initial conditions and parameters, and includes revised precession
equations. Four eccentricity solutions are presented (La2010a, La2010b, La2010c,
and La2010d). Although Laskar et al. (ref. 7) do not explicitly provide solutions
for obliquity and precession, it is straightforward to revise those parameters to be
compatible with each eccentricity solution, as documented in ref. 11. To assist in
comparison with the new results, ref. 7 included one solution (La2010d) that used
the older planetary ephemeris of La2004 (INPOP0629). It was later discovered that
La2010d provided a superior fit to both geological data and the more recent solu-
tion of ref. 8, suggesting that INPOP06 is more accurate than INPOP08 (ref. 18).
The La2011 solution 8 employs another revised planetary ephemeris
(INPOP10a30), and improved numerical integration algorithms. La2011 is a full
eccentricity solution, but the required parameters for correction of obliquity and
precession (for compatibility) are not available.
The underlying reason for the superior fit of the La2004 solution to the Niobrara
data remains elusive, especially considering that the La2011 solution is believed to
employ a more precise ephemerides and includes a range of other improvements
(for example, it does not average over the Earth–Moon binary). In addition, it
should be noted that close encounters among large bodies in the asteroid belt also
induce chaotic behaviour (ref. 8), and this factor currently provides a fundamental
limit to the predictive power of the full eccentricity solution. However, the iden-
tification of the Niobrara resonance transition provides the first unambiguous
geological evidence for a chaotic Solar System, and yields a new benchmark for
future developments in astronomical modelling, which can evaluate the range of
factors that are required to reproduce the observed resonance transition (such as
additional evaluation of the ephemerides through computational improvements30).
Approaches for quantifying the (s4 − s3) − (g4 − g3) secular resonance. Three
distinct ‘carrier signals’ can be used to assess the (g4 −​  g3) argument: the amplitude
modulation of the 405-kyr-long eccentricity cycle (LEAM), the amplitude modu-
lation of short eccentricity (about 110 kyr; SEAM), and the amplitude modulation
of precession terms (PAM). Similarly, the (s4 −​  s3) argument can be extracted from
the amplitude modulation of the approximately 40-kyr obliquity cycle (OAM). As
has been previously acknowledged (page 12 of ref. 7), even when it is impossible
to obtain robust measures of all the cycles noted above (LEAM, SEAM, PAM, OAM),
owing to complexities associated with the climate and depositional system response
(including nonlinear responses and stochastic variability31), a reliable assessment
of even one of the measures of (g4 −​  g3) provides the opportunity to identify the
 RESEARCH letter
resonance transition. We employ here LEAM and SEAM to assess (g4 −​  g3) and OAM
to assess (s4 −​  s3); precession is excluded because of the low signal strength and the
coarse-resolution time control (405 kyr) that is implemented.
Although it may be possible to improve our results even further with fine-scale
tuning (<​405 kyr), we avoid this approach in order to provide the most objective
(impartial) analysis in our evaluation of the secular resonances. Of paramount
importance, the robust high-precision radioisotopic framework provides a critical
element of our assessment, as it confirms the astronomical timescale, and excludes
the possibility that the observed resonance transition is an artefact of tuning errors
or changes in sedimentation (low sedimentation rates or hiatus). Finally, if the
(g4 −​  g3) argument is preserved with high fidelity in the SEAM and LEAM, not only
should it exhibit the same periodicity, but these two modulations should be approx-
imately anti-phased, as is observed in the Libsack FMI data (Extended Data Fig. 4
and Extended Data Fig. 5).
Implications of the secular resonance transition for Cretaceous palaeoclimate.
Numerous studies have proposed mechanistic linkages between palaeoclimate
events and ‘nodes’ in the theoretical astronomical-insolation solutions; examples
include the pacing of Antarctic ice-sheet growth during the Oligocene (see ref. 32)
and the timing of Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2; see ref. 33). The
astronomical-insolation nodes are attributable to the long-term amplitude modu-
lation of eccentricity (such as the approximately 2.4-Myr-long one) and obliquity
(such as the approximately 1.2-Myr-long one), and thus reflect the secular reso-
nance that is evaluated in the present study.
The resonance transition that is observed in the Niobrara Formation occurs
across an interval that includes OAE 3 (about 84–88 Myr ago34), which leads to
speculation that the occurrence of this event may be mechanistically related to the
transition. Such a resonance transition would permit positive reinforcement of
eccentricity- and obliquity-modulated seasonality, allowing for a more pronounced
impact of astronomical forcing on palaeoceanography. OAE 3 demonstrates greater
spatio-temporal variability than the well studied OAE 221,22, with substantial tem-
poral heterogeneity in the deposition of organic carbon-rich strata in different loca-
tions, over a much longer time interval (<​1 Myr for OAE 235 versus about 4 Myr
for OAE 321). In fact, the precise timing of the event is ambiguous owing to the
observed heterogeneity, but the extended duration distinguishes it from all other
Cretaceous oceanic anoxic events (with the exception of, perhaps, the amalgam
of events referred to as OAE 1b22,36,37). A mechanistic link between the resonance
transition and OAE 3 would be strengthened if future studies demonstrate that the
(s4 −​  s3) −​  2(g4 −​  g3) resonance is re-established in the Turonian.
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
Code availability. Code for reconstruction of the analysis of the Libsack
FMI data10 and an analogous analysis of the La2004 solution4 is included as
Supplementary Information. The script uses the free statistical software R (https://
cran.r-project.org) and the package Astrochron (ref. 25; http://cran.r-project.org/
package=​astrochron).
Data availability. The Libsack FMI data (Fig. 1b) and astronomical timescale data
are available as Supplementary Information.
26. R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R
Foundation for Statistical Computing http://www.R-project.org/ (2016).
27. Laskar, J., Joutel, F. & Boudin, F. Orbital, precessional and insolation quantities
for the Earth from -20 Myr to +​10 Myr. Astron. Astrophys. 270, 522–533
(1993).
28. Fienga, A. et al. INPOP08, a 4-D planetary ephemeris: from asteroid and
time-scale computations to ESA Mars Express and Venus Express
contributions. Astron. Astrophys. 507, 1675–1686 (2009).
29. Fienga, A., Manche, H., Laskar, J. & Gastineau, M. INPOP06: a new
numerical planetary ephemeris. Astron. Astrophys. 477, 315–327
(2008).
30. Fienga, A. et al. The INPOP10a planetary ephemeris and its applications
in fundamental physics. Celestial Mech. Dyn. Astron. 111, 363–385
(2011).
31. Meyers, S. R., Sageman, B. B. & Pagani, M. Resolving Milankovitch:
consideration of signal and noise. Am. J. Sci. 308, 770–786 (2008).
32. Pälike, H. et al. The heartbeat of the Oligocene climate system. Science 314,
1894–1898 (2006).
33. Mitchell, R. N. et al. Oceanic anoxic cycles? Orbital prelude to the Bonarelli
Level (OAE 2). Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 267, 1–16 (2008).
34. Locklair, R., Sageman, B. & Lerman, A. Marine carbon burial flux and the
carbon isotope record of Late Cretaceous (Coniacian-Santonian) Oceanic
Anoxic Event III. Sedim. Geol. 235, 38–49 (2011).
35. Meyers, S. R. et al. Intercalibration of radioisotopic and astrochronologic time
scales for the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary interval, Western Interior Basin,
USA. Geology 40, 7–10 (2012).
36. Leckie, R. M., Bralower, T. J. & Cashman, R. Oceanic anoxic events and plankton
evolution: Biotic response to tectonic forcing during the mid-Cretaceous.
Paleoceanography 17, 13-1–13-29 (2002).
37. Sabatino, N. et al. High-resolution chemostratigraphy of the late Aptian-early
Albian oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1b) from the Poggio le Guaine section
(Umbria-Marche Basin, central Italy). Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol.
426, 319–333 (2015).
Supplementary Information is available in the online version of the paper.
 letter RESEARCH

90˚W 60˚W 30˚W 0˚ 30˚E 60˚E 90˚E

90˚N 90˚N

60˚N 60˚N
Libsack

30˚N 30˚N

0˚ 0˚

Ocean

30˚S Shallow 30˚S

Sea
Land
Libsack
Core
60˚S 60˚S
90˚W 60˚W 30˚W 0˚ 30˚E 60˚E 90˚E
Extended Data Figure 1 | Palaeogeographic map for the Late Cretaceous (90 Myr ago; copyright 2015 Colorado Plateau Geosystems, used with
permission). The location of the Libsack core is indicated with a red star.

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
 RESEARCH letter

a. and Sageman 2008)

Obliquity band power Short eccentricity band power
(Locklair and Sageman 2008)
Ash Bed (Myr)

g. j.
(Sageman et al., 2014)

Ammonite
b. c. d. e. f. h. i.
Age (Myr)

Campanian (Locklair Stage

Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack La2010d Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack La2010d La2011
82 0 80 0 1.2e-04 0 40 0 1.4e-4 0 80 0 1.4e-4 0 40 0 1.4e-4 0 1.2e-4

S.h. II
83

2.4 Myr
1.2 Myr

2.4 Myr ?
1.2 Myr
S.h. I

1.2 Myr ?

2.0 Myr
2.4 Myr
D.b.
84 84.37
84.43 S.l.
(0.28)
D.b.
1.2 Myr
D.e.

1.3 Myr
Santonian

84.59 D.e.
84.55
85 (0.44)
C.c.

2.0 Myr
2.0 Myr
1.2 Myr ? Resonance
1.2 Myr

C.v. C.v.

2.0 Myr
86 85.84 Transion
1.1 Myr

2.0 Myr
85.66 C.s.
(0.21)
S.d.
86.44
86.52
1.4 Myr

1.2 Myr
1.3 Myr

1.1 Myr

87 (0.35)
S.d.
Coniacian

2.4 Myr
1.2 Myr

2.0 Myr
88
1.2 Myr

1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr

1.2 Myr

S.v.

1.2 Myr
89 S.p.
S.p.
-0.48 Myr
89.37 -0.48 Myr
(0.28)
90 Tur. S.m.
+0.43 Myr +0.43 Myr

Extended Data Figure 2 | Obliquity and short eccentricity band power
for the theoretical astronomical solutions and the Libsack FMI record,
including multiple anchoring options for the 405-kyr-tuned floating
astrochronology, and the short eccentricity band power for La2011.
a, Timescale, biostratigraphy and the radioisotopically dated horizons
for the Libsack core5,10. In total, five radioisotopic ages are used from the
following biozones: D. bassleri, D. erdmanni, C. vermiformis, S. depressus
and S. preventricosus. S. preventricosus is used as the nominal anchor in
this study (see Methods). Each ash bed (except the nominal anchor) is
associated with two ages: the top number is the age calculated based on the
astrochronology (anchored to S. preventricosus), while the bottom number
is the radioisotopic age for the bentonite layer, with its 2σ total uncertainty
in parentheses. b, f, The astronomically tuned and anchored FMI data
from the Libsack core. c–e, The obliquity band power extracted from
the Libsack core, La2004 and La2010d, showing the youngest and oldest
possible age models (Table 1) upon considering all sources of uncertainty
(grey lines in d). g–j, The short eccentricity band power extracted from
the Libsack core, La2004, La2010d, and La2011, showing the youngest
and oldest possible age models (Table 1) upon considering all sources of
uncertainty (grey lines in h). The approximately 1.2-Myr and 2.4-Myr
cycles are labelled with dashed arcs.

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
 letter RESEARCH

a. Obliquity band power Short eccentricity band power

and Sageman 2008)

(Locklair and Sageman 2008)

Ash Bed (Myr)

g. j.
(Sageman et al., 2014)

Ammonite
b. c. d. e. f. h. i. k.
Age (Myr)

Campanian (Locklair Stage

Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack Libsack La2010d Libsack FMI La2004 Libsack Libsack La2010d
82 0 80 0 1e-04 0 40 0.1 0.4 0 1.4e-4 0 80 0 1.4e-4 0 40 0 0.3 0 1.4e-4

S.h. II
83

2.4 Myr
2.4 Myr ?

2.4 Myr ?
1.2 Myr

1.2 Myr
S.h. I

1.2 Myr ?
D.b.

2.4 Myr
84 84.37
84.43 S.l.
(0.28)
D.b.
D.e. 1.2 Myr
Santonian

1.3 Myr
84.59 D.e.
84.55
85 (0.44)
C.c.

2.0 Myr
2.0 Myr

2.0 Myr
1.2 Myr ?
Resonance
1.2 Myr

C.v. C.v.
86 85.84 Transion

1.1 Myr

2.0 Myr
85.66 C.s.
(0.21)
S.d.
86.44

1.2 Myr
1.3 Myr

1.2 Myr
86.52
1.4 Myr

87 (0.35)

1.1 Myr
S.d.
Coniacian

2.4 Myr
1.2 Myr
88

1.0 Myr
1.2 Myr

1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr
1.2 Myr

S.v.

1.2 Myr
89 S.p.
S.p.
89.37
(0.28)
90 Tur. S.m.

Extended Data Figure 3 | Obliquity and short eccentricity band from the Libsack core. c, d, f, The obliquity band power extracted from the
power for the theoretical astronomical solutions and the Libsack FMI Libsack core, La2004 and La2010d. e, The ratio of obliquity band power to
record, with FMI results normalized to total power <​1/10,000 yr. total power in Libsack FMI data. h, i, k, The short eccentricity band power
a, Timescale, biostratigraphy and the radioisotopically dated horizons extracted from the Libsack core, La2004 and La2010d. j, The ratio of
for the Libsack core5,10. In total, five radioisotopic ages are used from the short eccentricity band power to total power in the Libsack FMI data. The
following bizones: D. bassleri, D. erdmanni, C.  vermiformis, S. depressus approximately 1.2-Myr and 2.4-Myr cycles are labelled with dashed arcs.
and S. preventricosus. S. preventricosus is used as the nominal anchor This analysis confirms the transition to an approximately 1.2-Myr cycle
in this study (see Methods). Each ash bed (except the anchor) is in short eccentricity power in the Coniacian. The normalized obliquity
associated with two ages: the top one is the age calculated based on the power result is more ambiguous, probably because it is normalized to a
astrochronology (anchored to S. preventricosus), while the bottom number signal that it dominates. However, detection of the resonance transition
is the radioisotopic age for the bentonite layer, with its 2σ total uncertainty requires assessment only of the eccentricity modulation, as previously
in parentheses. b, g, The astronomically tuned and anchored FMI data proposed7.

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
RESEARCH letter

Libsack FMI short eccentricity and long eccentricity

amplitude modulation
Short Eccentricity

a)
10 20 30 40
Band Power

2.4 Myr ? 2.0 Myrr 1.2 Myr yr

1.2 Myr
0

b) 1.0 Myr
2.0 Myrr 1.2 Myr
Short Eccentricity

2.4 Myr ?
0.05 0.15 0.25
/Total Power

c) yr
2.4 Myr
Long Eccentricity
Bandpass Output

2.0 Myr
2 Myr
1.2 M 1. Myr
1.4
5
0
-5

82 84
Time (Myr)
Extended Data Figure 4 | A comparison of amplitude modulations
expressed in the Libsack FMI short eccentricity and long eccentricity
signals. a, Short eccentricity band power in the Libsack FMI record,
determined by integration of spectral power between 0.007 and 0.012
cycles per kyr (142.9–83.3 kyr per cycle). b, The short eccentricity band
power from a is normalized to total power ≤​1/10,000 yr, to provide
an alternative assessment that compensates for secular changes in the
sensitivity of sedimentation to Milankovitch-forced climate change.
c, The amplitude modulation (black line) of the Libsack 405-kyr FMI
eccentricity cycle, as determined by Hilbert Transform of the bandpass-
86 88 90
filtered long eccentricity signal (red line; from 0.002 cycles per kyr to
0.0035 cycles per kyr). The approximately 1.2-Myr and 2.4-Myr cycles are
labelled with dashed arcs. This analysis confirms the chaotic transition
from an approximately 2.4-Myr cycle to an approximately 1.2-Myr cycle
in both short and long eccentricity modulation during the Coniacian. The
phase relationship between long eccentricity and short eccentricity also
exhibits the predicted anti-phased behaviour; for example, green boxes
indicate locations when both short eccentricity assessments (a and b) show
consistently low values. The timescale employed here uses the nominal
radioisotopic anchor from the S. preventricosus ash bed.

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
 letter RESEARCH

La2004 short eccentricity amplitude modulation

0.00010 a)
Short Eccentricity
Band Power
0.00002

84 86 88 90
Time (Myr)

La2004 long eccentricity amplitude modulation

b)
Bandpass Output
Long Eccentricity

0.030
0.015

84 86 88 90
Time (Myr)
Extended Data Figure 5 | A comparison of amplitude modulations (142.9–83.3 kyr per cycle). b, The amplitude modulation (black line) of the
expressed in the La2004 short eccentricity and long eccentricity signals. 405-kyr eccentricity cycle in the La2004 solution, determined by Hilbert
a, Short eccentricity band power in the La2004 solution, determined by Transform of the bandpass-filtered long eccentricity signal (red line; from
integration of spectral power between 0.007 and 0.012 cycles per kyr 0.0015 cycles per kyr to 0.0035 cycles per kyr).

© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
 RESEARCH letter
(a) EPSA: Log Power
Age (kyr)
Frequency (cycles/kyr)
Extended Data Figure 6 | Time-frequency analysis of the astronomically
tuned and radioisotopically anchored FMI data from the Libsack core.
All analyses use three 2π​prolate tapers, and a 500-kyr moving window.
A linear trend was removed from each 500-kyr window before analysis.
a, Evolutive Power Spectral Analysis (EPSA) results, and b, Evolutive
© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.
(b) EHA: Normalized Amplitude
Frequency (cycles/kyr)
Harmonic Analysis (EHA) results, normalized such that the maximum
amplitude in each 500-kyr window is unity. Blue dashed boxes indicate the
obliquity band used for integration of the power spectra, and black dashed
boxes indicate the short eccentricity band. The timescale employed here
uses the nominal radioisotopic anchor from the S. preventricosus ash bed.
 letter RESEARCH

Extended Data Figure 7 | Time versus core-depth, based on astronomical tuning of the Libsack FMI data10. The radioisotopically anchored
astronomical timescale for the Niobrara Formation is constructed using the 405-kyr long eccentricity cycle observed in the Libsack FMI data10, and the
nominal radioisotopic anchor from the S.  preventricosus ash bed.

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