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ABSTRACT.
RESUME.
Life Cycle Cost Analysis is not a new technique for optimisation civil
infrastructure 1, 2. Although there are new advances in research about optimisation
in the LCCA 3, 4 the main purpose of traditional procedures is the whole concept of
infrastructure design, which includes all phases of the infrastructure’s life:
Building, service life, repair and restoration, residual service life and disposal.
However, the repair stage can be considered as a new project phase and therefore
new alternatives are presented and an economical optimisation is suitable to be
employed. Of course the economical optimisation must comply with al the
requirements proposed by owners and other infrastructure agents.
CT = C I + CM + C f Equation 1
1
NPV = Cn Equation 2
(1 + r )t
One of the most interesting new applications of LCCA is the selection of an
appropriate repair procedure in structures. Usually the selection of a repair
procedure or system is performed taking into account the actual investment in the
structure (the Direct Cost of the repair), thus the LCCA allows to evaluate not only
the effect of the repair cost, but also the expected service life of the repair and
therefore new possible costs of a failure in the repair.
Of course, it exists many types of LCCA depending of the amount of data and
information about the performance we have. The starting point should be a rational
classification of the typical LCCA used.
It is the simplest form of LCCA. It only considers deterministic costs and expected
service life and durability. It can be consider as a first step in the selection
procedure for repair strategies. Although their simplicity, usually practical
approaches of economical optimisation of a DLCCA.
The expression that can accounts for the total expected cost of the structure, taking
into account the maintenance and repair interventions is collected in Equation 3,
where each expected cost should be translated into actual currency by means the
discount rate r.
n
CM ,i n C f ,i
CT = CI + ∑ +∑ Equation 3
i =T 1 (1 + r ) i
i =T 1 (1 + r )i
The parameters in Eq. 3 are:
120
Maintenance
100 Repair
80 Strengthening
Cost
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
Time
It can be considered an evolution of DLCCA where all variables (except costs) are
considered as stochastic, therefore the costs of maintenance, repair and
strengthening are related to their probability of occurrence and their PDF. Thus,
A more general expression that takes into account the probabilistic approach in the
evaluation of LCC, can be rewritten in Equation 4, where it should be noticed that
in the case of costs due to Maintenance (CM), Repair / Strengthening (CR,S) or
Collapse (Cf) the sum is extended from the time t=1 because the probability of
repair/maintenance or structural failure is higher than 0.
n
CM ,i
CT = C I + ∑ PF ,M (ti ) +
i =1 (1 + r )i
Equation 4
n
C R ,S ,i n C f ,i
∑P (ti ) + PF (ti )
i =T 1
F ,R ,S
(1 + r )i ∑
i =1 (1 + r )i
Thus, the distribution costs throughout time, are not localised as in DLCCA if not
continuous because the cost is multiplied by the probability which usually has a
continuous distribution with time. In this sense, the product of probability by costs
is usually known as damage.
One of the most difficult points of using this type of approach (either
Deterministic or Probabilistic) is the determination of realistic models for taking
into account the costs due to repair / maintenance. The word model describe a
mathematical expression that relate expected costs due to Repair / Maintenance
and the geometrical, disposition or localisation characteristics of the structure.
Thus, a relatively short expression that can describe the costs due to a Repair /
Maintenance operation in a structure can be written as shown in Eq. 5.
C M / R = C D + C H + CU + C E Equation 5
In Eq. 5 the costs included are: Direct cost of repair (CD), Cost of loss of contents
or fatality and injury loses (CH), Cost of users (CU) and Socio – Economic loses
(CE). In each case the cost can be multiplied by their appropriate Probability
Density Function (PDF) and use PLCCA.
Indirect cost models are quite different for building and for bridges. Typical
models for buildings include costs as shown in Eq. 65 where are included cost of
contents (CC), economic loss due to business interruption (CB), cost of injury in
repair processes (CIn) and costs of possible fatality in the repair process (CFa):
Cost of contents can be easily obtained form common price lists and cost of
business interruption can be computed by accounting past economical reports of
the factory or the cost of new rent if the building is dedicated to services, offices
or residential. It is usually presented in terms of initial construction cost of the
structure.
Cost of CIn and CFa are considerably difficult to analyse, because the special
influence of human life. Although in old reports and documents it was said that
trying to evaluate the economical value of a human life is rather inmoral, new
approaches suggest that the Life Quality Index may be assessed using LCCA6 .
In general roads and bridges costs consist of five major cost item: vehicle
operating costs, time delay costs, safety and accident costs, comfort and
convenience costs and environmental costs. It is usually considered that two first
are the most relevant although in order to evaluate them factors such as traffic
network, location of the infrastructure and information of rehabilitations must be
considered. A expression for accounting time delay costs can be written in Eq. 7.
J
N
CTD = ∑ nPj ·T j ·u1 j 1 − ∑ ri ∆t +
j =1 i =1
N J
Equation 7
∑ ·∑ r ·n
i =1 j =1
i Pj ·T j ·u1 j + rij ·nPij ·Tij ·u1ij ∆tij
where: j is an index representing the type of vehicle (business and non – business,
etc). nPj is the average number of passengers in vehicles type j, Tj is the Average
Daily Traffic Vehicle of type j, u1j is the unitary cost of unit of time for operator j,
ri is the rate of occurrence of route i and ∆t is the increment in time of route i.
Costs of vehicle operation can be computed using Eq. 8 where it is considered the
wages for each type of vehicle and the cost of fuel.
∑ (T 0 j ·u 2 j ) 1 −
J N
C TD =
j =1
∑ r ∆ t +
i =1
i
∑ r ·∑ (T ·u 2 j )∆ t i +
N J
i 0j Equation 8
i =1 j =1
ri ·∑ T 0 j ·(u 3 ij l di − u 4 ij l d 0 ) + T ij u 2 j ∆ t i
N J
∑ i =1 j =1
Where u2ij is the average operator wages for each type of vehicle, u3ij is the
average unit fuel cost pert unit of length on each detour route, uiij is the average
unit fuel cost per unit of length in the original route, li and l0 are the length of the
detour and original route, respectively.
From a direct examination of Eq. 3, where the Probabilistic Life Cycle Cost
Analysis is described, it can be seen that each cost must be actualised in time. This
actualisation, as was explained above should be done continuously because the
implication of probabilities in the computation. To compute directly expressions
such as Eq. 3 is considerably difficult due to the calculation of probabilities with
time. One of the simplification proposed by authors7 is to compute Eq. 3 in a
similar manner as Eq. 2 at the end of the expected service life of the repair. One
possibility for simplification is to compute costs at a deterministic point in time
and actualise currency values in the same manner.
n
C M ,i tL
C M ,i CM ,i
∑ PF ,M (ti )
i =1 (1 + r ) i
= ∑ PF ,M (ti )
i =0 (1 + r ) t act
=
(1 + r )t act
PF ,M (t L ) Equation 9
The time – factor tact takes into account the effect of increasing evolution of
degradation with time. Of course tact depends essentially of two factors: PDF of
service life and discount rate. Figures 1 and 2 show the net value of the damage
cost as a function of the mean service life for a Log – normal distribution and
100% of variation.
Figure 2 and 3. Example of Damage costs and tact
0.6 180
160
0.5
140
0.4 120
100
Damage
T_act
0.3
80
0.2 60
40
0.1 20
0
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Mean Service Life
Mean Service Life
It can be easily seen that the results are quite different depending of the discount
rate (r) we chose for analysis. This aspect is one of the principal inconveniences
of LCCA. Of course it is known by politicians as a way to force or delay future
inversions in infrastructure or whatever type of business. Thus, it is commonly
accepted that national administrations force the technicians to use specific r values
depending on the type of inversion, these values are varying from 12% to 6%1. An
economical definition of r can be obtained as the difference between rate of
6
5.1
Actualisation rate [%]
4 3.51 3.59
2.91
3
2.02 2.01 2.07
1.81
2 1.5
1.25
1
2
in
in
ax
ax
0
ax
50
0
en
M
M
-5
M
-5
M
M
n-
ed
m
0
SA
0
0
ai
-2
-2
10
0
er
0
-1
-1
Sw
-1
-1
U
Sp
EU
EU
G
n-
m
SA
m
SA
er
ai
er
U
Sp
G
U
CONCLUSIONS
Life Cycle Cost Analysis has been developed many years ago, and their
application to building projects is being increased in last twenty years. One of
their possible applications is the selection of adequate repair / strengthening
methods to be employed in infrastructure. The models for analysing each cost are
presented and identified, one of the problems is to adopt numerical values for each
variable.
In addition, repair / strengthening activities are linked to a degradation process
that involves the time effect. The time adds an additional difficult in the
computation process and more uncertainties. One possibility is to translate
calculations to DLCCA by means the actualisation time as was presented, making
considerably easy the results.
Finally, all results obtained in LCCA, are strongly dependent of discount rate
adopted in the calculations. A specific study is presented showing that realistic
values are located in the range of 2 – 5%.
REFERENCES
1. Tilly, G. P. , Principles of Whole Life Costing Safety of Bridges, 1997, Ed. By Parag C.
Das, Pag 138 – 144.
2. Ferry, D.J.O. Flanagan, R. Life Cycle Costing – a radical approach. CIRIA report, nº 122
3. Cho, H.N. Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness for Design and rehabilitation of Civil
Infrastructures Proceedings of SEWC’02.
4. Cho, H.N. Development of Bridge Life – Cycle Cost Analysis Model Final report to
Korea Infrastructure Safety and Technology corporation 2002.
5. Ang A, De Leon D. Determination of optimal target reliabilities for design and upgrading
of structures. Structural Safety,(1997) 19(1).Pag. 91 – 103.
6. Rackwitz R. Optimisation – The Basis of code making and Reliability Verification.
(2000) Structural Safety , 22 Pag 27 – 60.
7. Siemes. A. J. M. Vrouwenvelder A. C. Van del Beukel A. (1985) Durability of buildings:
a reliability analysis. HERON (1985) Vol. 30 nº 3 Delft University of Technology.