Lesson Plan

Lesson Title: Monty Hall Dilemma Grade: Date:

Subject/Strand: Math/ Data and Probability Unit: Probability. Location: Times:
Lesson Plan Description (What are you teaching? How does it fit into the context of the unit? What are the big ideas/essential/enduring understandings?)

In this lesson students will focus on actualizing theoretical probability through experimental probability. This
lesson will challenge students to make connections between their hypothesis and data results. The big idea of
this lesson is analysing and interpreting experiments in data probability that develops an understanding of
chance. The enduring understanding of this lesson is to use principles of probability to make accurate
predictions.

STEP 1 : CURRICULUM CONNECTIONS

Ontario Curricular Overall Expectations (numbers from documents and details)
Data Management and Probability - Page 74

 Predict the results of a simple probability experiment, then conduct the experiment and compare the
prediction to the results.

Ontario Curricular Specific Expectations and Achievement Chart Categories

(Numbers from documents and details) selected & listed from the Ont. Curriculum, (refined when necessary): realistic number of expectations (1 or 2), connect to
assessment. Indicate category in brackets beside specific expectation :Knowledge and Understanding( K ) Thinking (T); Communication (C); Application(A)
Probability

 Predict the frequency of an outcome in a simple probability experiment, explaining their

reasoning; conduct the experiment; and compare the result with the prediction. (K)

Learning Goals Discuss with students: What will I be learning today? (Clearly identify what students are expected to know and be able to do, in language that
students can readily understand.)

Today I will learn…

 about predicting the frequency of an outcome in a simple probability experiment

STEP 2: ASSESSMENT
Purpose of the lesson (indicate purpose for this lesson/assessment) [ x ] FOR [ ] AS [ ] OF

Success Criteria Discuss with students: How will I know I have learned what I need to learn? (Clearly identify the criteria to assess student’s learning: evidence of
learning students will provide to demonstrate their knowledge, skills and thinking, in language that students can readily understand). Indicate the Achievement Chart
criteria.

I can…

 justify my reasoning for my predication.

 conduct experimental probability activity.
 make connections between experimental probability activity results and my prediction.

LEARNING SKILLS AND WORK HABIT SUCCESS CRITERIA:

I can…
  use class time appropriately to complete tasks.

 establish priorities and manage time to complete tasks and achieve goals.

Assessment Mode- Written, Oral, Assessment Strategy and Task for Students- Assessment Tool - Instrument used to
Performance (Write, Say, Do) What are the students doing to show their learning? assess; Record Keeping format

Performance Performance - Students will use the Observation sheet (comments

Oral activity sheet to conduct their made in group and during
experimental probability activity. discussion).
Say – Students will explain their results Exit ticket: write reflection on
and the potential reasons why the activity sheet as a group about why
results occurred.
they were right or wrong.
Completion of, accuracy, and
explanation will be used for
assessment.

Feedback will be given during

consolidation and upon return of
activity sheet.

STEP 3: CONSIDERATIONS FOR PLANNING

Prior Learning: Prior to this lesson, students will have

Prior to this lesson students will have become familiar with the concept of probability.

I.E.P. program implications: Accommodations, Modifications

Y will be placed in a group with students who are strong at math.

Students who require assistance can sit at teacher’s desk with teacher.

Differentiation: Content, Process, Product, Environment, Assessment

Within groups, students can volunteer for roles they are comfortable with.
Environment –Students can work anywhere in the classroom.

Learning Skills/Work Habits: [ ] responsibility, [ ] organization, [ x] independent work, [ x ] collaboration, [ ] initiative, [ ] self-regulation

Vocabulary: (for word wall addition or reference and/or to develop schema for this lesson. To be addressed in lesson)

 Probability
 Chance
 Dilemma

Resources and Materials /Technology Integration: List ALL items necessary for delivery of the lesson. Include any attachments of student worksheets used
and teacher support material that will support communication of instruction. Include the use of Information Technology (ICT) in your lesson plan where appropriate.

 Whiteboard (to record idea generated by discussion)

  Card stock (to represent doors)
 Scissors (to cut card stock into large cards to represent doors)
 Marker (to draw prizes on the back of the card stock)
 Activity sheet (for students to record outcome of experiment)
 Writing utensil (for students to record outcome of experiment)

Three Part Lesson Identify what the students are expected to think about or do.
What Teachers Do: Write the lesson description with enough What Students do: Identify what the students are expected to
detail that another teacher could replicate the lesson without a think about or do (in terms of learning processes).
personal discussion. Prompts and guiding questions are
required in each section.
Minds on: Motivational Hook/engagement /Introduction (5-15 min)
Establish a positive learning environment, connect to prior learning, set the context for learning, pre-determine key questions to guide lesson.
Time: 10 Minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)

The lesson will begin by introducing a potentially

real-world scenario. This example is consistent with
the heuristic interpretations made the Monty Hall
problem and thus won’t prove to be to challenging in
finding an answer. However, the heuristic inferences
made in this case happen to be correct. This will used
as a vehicle for igniting interest in the topic and will
serve as an instance of contrasting the two problems.
One that’s intuitive and one that’s counter (The
Monty Hall Problem).

The Problem: “Imagine you are watching a car race

with three drivers. You think Car A is going to win so - Students will listen to the problem.
you are cheering for them. Midway through the race,
Car A crashes is no longer a contender. Assuming you
want to pick the winner of the race, should you now
pick Car B or Car C to win?”

Prior to student giving their answer, the teacher will

inform students that all things being equal, Car B and
Car C are in a position of equality. That is, Car B and
Car C are both equally talented, have the same cars,
are the same distance to the finish line, and are
equal in any other factors that could affect the
outcome of the race.

Ask them to justify their answer. - Students will give answer and justify them.

Prompting questions in anticipated student

responses:

 Why doesn’t it matter if you change your

answer?
 Would this change if there was a fourth
racer?
 What kinds of factors would affect your
choice?

A probability wheel will be used to help with

understanding this question and the answer to this
question.
Action: During /Working on it (time given for each component, suggested 15-40 min)
Focus is on student interactions with task/peers/teacher. Identify students/groups receiving teacher direction.
Time: 35 Minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)

The introduction the Monty Hall problem.

The reproduction of the game in class will be as

follows: “Monty Hall, a thoroughly honest game show
host, has placed a new car behind one of three doors.
There is a goat behind each of the other doors. ‘First, - Students will listen to instructions.
you point toward a door,’ he says. ’Then I’ll open one
of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I’ve shown
you the goat, you make your final choice, and you win
whatever is behind that door.”’

You begin by pointing to a door, say door 1. Monty,

knowing full well what is behind all the doors, shows
you that door 3 has a goat. What will your final choice
be? Stick with door 1? Or, Switch to door 2?

Of course, it is assumed that you desire the car, not

one of the goats.

Students will be given the opportunity to provide an

answer to this scenario.

Ask them to justify their answer.

Prompting questions in anticipated student

responses:

 Why doesn’t it matter if you change your

answer?
 Do you see any similarities to question with
the racers?
 What kinds of factors would affect your
choice?

Students will be informed that in order to find the

answer to this question they will be conducting their
own probability experiment.
The Activity

Due to the difficulty of grasping the concept intended for this

lesson, this lesson will make use of analogue materials to
eliminate any potential notion that there’s a nefarious
technological variable effecting the outcome. This reassures
students that the game is not fixed.

Students will be assigned to groups. They will be asked to

- Students will conduct experiment.
create a large rectangle out of card stock with the prizes
drawn on the back to represent the three doors of the
problem.

Accurate in its representation to the original dilemma and

simple in its acquisition is the use of three large cards with
prizes drawn on the opposite sides.

The group will be asked to assign a role to its members. The

roles are as followed:

 Host (needs to be knowing and honest): will arrange

doors.
 Contestants (can switch if wanted throughout): will
choose which doors to open.
 Recorder: records results.

Next students will be assigned and asked to stick with one

assumption throughout the experiment. The assumptions are
whether to switch or not to switch.

As the host, you need to be aware of what is behind all the

doors before you turn one over. The host will mix up doors
behind a fabricated wall while remembering at all times
where the door with the car is. The host will remove the wall
and let the contestant pick one door. Next the host will flip
over one of the goat cards (the one not picked if goat card is
chosen by contestant).

The recorder will record if the outcome resulted in winning

car or not.

This is be considered one trial or game.

Conduct trial or game 50 times.

The activity sheet will ask students to see what percentage of

winning the car resulted in their assumption.
(Unfinished work, math games, and additional work
can be used for those who finish early).

(After giving enough time for students to finish sheet,

students will gather back on the carpet.)

Students will be asked to share their results on the

board. The results should show that switching your
pick resulted in winning more.

Consolidation & Connection (Reflect and Connect) (5-15 min.)

Help students demonstrate what they have learned, provide opportunities for consolidation and reflection. Close the assessment loop.
Time: 10 Minutes (Indicate time breakdown of instructional elements)

For consolidation, the racing example conducted in

Minds On will be contrasted the Monty Hall Dilemma.

In addressing confusion by this experiment, students

will be asked how the Monty Hall Problem is
different from the racing example.

Prompting questions in anticipated student

responses:
- Students will brainstorm why the results were surprising.
 How is this different from the racing
example?
 Does the host being present in the problem
make a difference?
 Why does the host make a difference?
 Does adding a fourth door matter?
 Does having 100 doors matter?
 Why does switching the door result in
winning more?

Reasoning for teacher to help clarify student

thought process:

Does switching effect the outcome? The correct

answer is “no” because this scenario lacks someone
who knows the correct answer. The information
provided by Car C is not dependent on your initial
pick, thus, it is irrelevant. This may partly explain why
people perform poorly on the MHD – in real life there
is rarely a situation where an all-knowing host is
participating in our decisions.

Allegoric description to help with students

understanding:

Occasionally a student will come up at the end of the

class and say, well I followed the solution on the
board and I know it was correct and all that, but I still
have trouble seeing why switching should give you
any advantage. Then here's an enlightening variation.
Suppose there are 100 doors––with 1 car and 99
goats, and after you've made your choice, the host
opens 98 doors revealing 98 goats. Would you
switch? And if so, is your chance of winning still 1 in
100? Does this help your understanding?

Extension Activities/Next Steps (where will this lesson lead to next)

The next steps will be addressing the Monty Hall Problem from a different perspective. That is, addressing the
problem by assigning fraction and percentages to the outcome of the game.