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Climate change effects in Mediterranean Maulino Forests

Poster · October 2014

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4616.8561

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Diego Alarcón
University of Concepción
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 Climate change effects in
Mediterranean Maulino Forests
Diego Alarcón1,2 & Lohengrin A. Cavieres1,2
1Departamento de Botánica, Universidad de Concepción; 2Instituto de Ecología y

Biodiversidad (IEB). Email: dalarconab@udec.cl Web: www.udec.cl/~ecobiosis

Abstract Results
The ongoing climate change is one of the main threats for Mediterranean-type
Ecosystems (ME) worldwide. Central Chile includes ME such as Maulino forest
Obtained niche models Table 1. Best niche model parameters for each species
(MF) with high endemism and fast land-use changes. Future climate models successfully account for
predict decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature for this ecosystem. current distribution of MF
MF are dominated by Nothofagus tree species (N. obliqua, N. glauca and N.
alessandrii) and the expected effects of climate change are still unsolved. In
species (Table 1).
order to assess these effects, on MF Nothofagus trees, along with five co-
dominant tree species (Cryptocarya alba, Persea lingue, Gomortega keule, At the species level,
Laurelia sempervirens and Lomatia hirsuta) and seven understory ferns (from most of the MF tree
genera Adiantum, Blechnum, Cheilanthes and Pteris), we used niche modeling
using BIOMOD R-package. species are expected to
The best specific model for determining the current and future distribution
reduce their habitat,
according to a conservative future climate scenario were determined whilst all the ground
considering each species' dispersal constraints modeled using MIGCLIM R- ferns showed an
package. Our results show that most of the dominant trees of MF (i.e. all
Nothofagus and the half of the co-dominant tree species) are expected to
increase in their future
reduce their habitat areas. The other half of co-dominant and all the ground habitat (Table 2). This
ferns species showed increasing of their habitat area. Tree species considered suggests individual
as currently threatened (N. alessandrii, N. glauca and G. keule) are predicted
to suffer the worst negative effects in terms of decreasing their habitat
responses to climate
distribution (42%, 34% and 30% respectively). Thus, the remaining populations change at this level.
at the future scenario of the declining MF species, should receive additional
long-term conservation efforts.
At the Maulino forest community, most of the species predicted to expand in the future
Acknowledgments: CONICYT Doctoral Grant and FICM P05-002 and PFB-023 scenario at the species level assessment, showed either no change or habitat loss.
Threatened trees (N. alessandrii, N. glauca and G. keule) are predicted to suffer the
worst negative effects in terms of habitat reduction (42%, 34% and 30% respectively).
Introduction
Table 2. Predicted climate change effect for the Maulino Forest tree and fern species studied
Climate change is one of the main threats for
Mediterranean-type Ecosystems (ME) worldwide. Central Climate change effect
Chile includes ME such as Maulino forests (MF) with Species (% of habitat)
high endemism (San Martín and Donoso 1996) and fast
land-use changes (Echeverría et al. 2006).
Total species change Nothofagus alessandrii
Future climate models predict decreases in rainfall and Change in Maulino Forests

increases in temperature for this ecosystem for Central

Chile. Maulino Forests are dominated by Nothofagus tree
species (N. obliqua, N. glauca and N. alessandrii) and the
expected effects of climate change on its species and the
entire community remain unknown. Here we assessed Nothofagus glauca

these effects on MF Nothofagus trees along with five co-

dominant tree species using a niche modeling approach.

Nothofagus obliqua

Methods
Maulino Forest 8 BIOCLIM variables:
representative 4 related to temperature Gomortega keule
species localities and 4 to rainfall

BIOMOD Niche modelling using 9 algorithms

ANN, CTA, GAM, GBM, GLM,
Conclusions
Thuiller (2003),
Thuiller et al. (2009) MARS, FDA, RF y SRE. Maulino forest is expected to be highly affected by climate change, since
the conservative future climate scenario assessed here is not positive for
most of the studied species, especially for the dominating trees that would
Best specific model SANTIAGO experience a significant habitat loss.
Maulino
Subsetting Forest in
O’Higgins Even the species expected to increase their habitats at a species level
Central
MIGCLIM species Chile Maule
assessment, inside MF are predicted to remain with no change or suffer
present/future habitat loss.
future
migration habitat within Biobío
The remaining patches of the already poorly conserved Maulino Forest
Maulino forest should receive more conservation efforts, since the species that constitute
scenario
boundaries their communities are expected to decrease their habitats in the future.

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