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ABSTRACT
This research is intended to find out more about how to forecast and to find out how many is the total sales of
freight forwarding service in PT. Anugerah Tangkas Transportindo. To determine sales forecasting freight
forwarding service on the PT. Anugerah Tangkas Transportindo using the Single Moving Averages 3 montht and
4 month period, Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.1; α = 0.5; α = 0.9), Weighted Moving Averages 3 period . For
the measurement error (error) using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Square Error (MSE). Based
on this research can be concluded that, the most appropriate method is applied to the PT. Anugerah Tangkas
Transportindo is a Exponential Smoothing α = 0.1 if they are compared to Single Moving Averages 3 month and
4 month period, Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.5; α = 0.9), Weighted Moving Averages 3 period. The result of
sales forecasting method Exponential Smoothing α = 0.1 is 1215 sales of forecasting freight forwarding services,
amounting to 81,59 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) and 11090,1 MSE (Mean Square Error).
Keywords : Freight Forwarding, Single Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, Weighted Moving
Averages, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE).
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana cara meramalkan dan mengetahui berapa jumlah penjualan
jasa freight forwarding pada PT. Anugerah Tangkas Transportindo. Untuk mengetahui peramalan penjualan jasa
freight forwarding dengan menggunakan metode Single Moving Averages periode 3 bulanan dan 4 bulanan,
Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.1; α = 0.5; α = 0.9), Weighted Moving Averages dengan 3 bulanan pada bulan
September 2017. Untuk pengukuran kesalahan (error) menggunakan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) dan Mean
Square Error (MSE). Berdasarkan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa,metode analisis Exponential Smoothing
α = 0.1 merupakan metode yang unggul dari segi keakuratan nya dalam meramalkan dibandingkan dengan metode
Single Moving Averages periode 3 bulanan dan 4 bulanan, Exponential Smoothing (α = 0.5; α = 0.9), Weighted
Moving Averages dengan bobot 3. Hasil peramalan penjualan dengan metode Exponential Smoothing α = 0.1
adalah 1215 permintaan atau penjualan jasa freight forwarding. Adapun tingkat kesalahan peramalan, MAD
(Mean Absolute Deviation) sebesar 81,59 dan MSE (Mean Square Error) sebesar 11090,1.
Kata Kunci : Freight Forwarding, Single Moving Averages, Exponential Smoothing, Weighted Moving
Averages, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE).
Sumber: Data penjualan PT. Anugerah Tangkas Sumber: Data penjualan PT. Anugerah Tangkas
Transportindo yang diolah (2017). Transportindo yang diolah (2017).
Tabel 2. Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Penjualan Jasa Tabel 4. Hasil Perhitungan Peramalan Penjualan Jasa
Freight Forwarding PT. Anugerah Tangkas Freight Forwarding PT. Anugerah Tangkas
Transportindo dengan metode Single Moving Transportindo dengan metode Single Moving
Averages 3 bulanan Averages 4 bulanan
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Mulyono. 2000. Peramalan Bisnis dan
Ekonometrika. Yogyakarta: BPFE
Murphy, Paul. R. dan James. M. Daley 2000. An
Empirical Study of Interner Issues among
International Freight Forwarders.
Transportation Jurnal. 39.
Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB)|Vol. 55 No. 2 Februari 2018| 121
administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id