India’s Oilseeds Crop Scenario 2016/17

By
Govindbhai G. Patel
Managing Partner
G. G. Patel & Nikhil Research Company
At
SEA Annual General Meeting
On 21st Sept., 2016

1
 Why GGN

GGN Research Co. is a well recognized research company in the Oil & Oilseed
Industry world over.

 A non- biased and grass root statistics provider relating to imports, port stocks,
indigenous crop arrivals, S/d, Market developments, Factors affecting prices,
Weather reports, etc.

 An organized, updated and a well compiled data source, which is a basic need
for the industry and trading community.

 A Path with the help of which you get most accurate and prompt information
regarding Oil/Oilseeds Complex.

2
 Rainfall During 2016/17

1. Monsoon started on excellent note except in Gujarat and

Rajasthan.
2. Till 27th of July, 55% of Saurashtra Region and 45% of Gujarat
area was deficient in rain. Sowing taken place late in these
area. Hence critical requirement of rain in the month of Sept.
3. There was damage due to excessive rain in some pockets in
M.P. to Soybean crop.
4. In all other States there was satisfactory rain. Till 13th Sept.
According to IMD rainfall during current year was 95% of
Normal rain.
5. In some States, there is requirement of rain in the month of
Sept.
6. IMD has stated that rain from West Rajasthan is withdrawn.
3
 Soybean Area

(Lac Ha)
- 5.00

+ 2.00

- 0.20 +1.60

Total Area decreased by 1.60 lac Ha (-1.4%) from 116.30 to 114.70 in 2016/17.
Area for 2016/17 as on 08/09/16 as reported by Govt.
4
 Soybean Crop

+ 9.70 (Lac MT)

+11.40

+0.70 + 3.20

Total Crop may increase by 25 Lac MT (+36%) to 95 Lac MT in 2016/17.

5
 Groundnut Area
(Lac Ha)
+ 1.40

+2.50
+ 0.20
+ 2.10
+ 1.60

Unch

Total Area increased by 7.80 lac Ha (+ 20%) from 38.80 to 46.60 in 2016/17.
Area for 2016/17 as on 08/09/16 as reported by Govt.

6
 Groundnut Crop

(Lac MT)
+ 6.20

+ 1.90 + 0.30
+ 3.10

- 0.40 + 1.60

Total Crop increased by 12.70 lac MT (+ 39%) from 32.30 to 45.00 in 2016/17.

7
 Kharif Oilseed Production
During 2015/16 & 2016/17 Estimate

Production Lac MT
Oilseed
2015/16 2016/17 +/-

Groundnut 32.30 45.00 + 12.70

Soybean 70.00 95.00 + 25.00

Sunflowerseed 0.80 1.00 + 0.20

Sesameseed 5.00 4.00 - 1.00

TOTAL 108.10 145.00 + 36.90

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 Projection of Rabi Oilseeds Production
During 2016/17 and
Comparison with 2015/16

Production Lac MT
Oilseed
2015/16 2016/17
Groundnut 12.40 17.00

Rapeseed 56.00 63.00

Sunflower 2.40 3.50

Sesame 2.25 3.50

Safflower 0.25 0.80

Total 73.30 87.80

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 Projection of Availability of
Domestic Edible Oils During
2016/17 & Comparison with 2015/16
(Figures in Lac MT)
+/- against
Oils 2015/16 2016/17
2015/16
1. Groundnut Oil 2.10 6.00 3.90
2. Soybean Oil 9.50 12.30 2.80
3. Rapeseed Oil 16.50 19.70 3.20
4. Sunflower Oil 1.10 1.60 0.50
5. Sesame Oil 1.20 1.10 -0.10
6. Safflower Oil 0.10 0.20 0.10
7. Cottonseed Oil 11.60 11.60 -
8. Copra Oil – Edible Use 1.60 1.70 0.10
9. Ricebran Oil (Edible) 9.30 9.60 0.30
10. S.E. Oils (GN, Rape, Sun) 1.60 2.10 0.50
11. Misc. Edible Oils 3.60 3.70 0.10
Total 58.20 69.60 11.40

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 Consumption During 2015/16 &
Projection for 2016/17

2015/16 2016/17

Population (Million) 1,325 1,344

Per Capita Consumption (Kg.) 15.701 16.485

Consumption Growth – Per Capita 2.51% 4.99%

Total Edible Oils Required Lac MT 208.10 221.50

Consumption Growth – Quantity Term 3.64% 6.44%

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 Projection of Import Required for
2016/17 & Comparison with 2015/16

(Figures in Lac MT)

2015/16 2016/17

Opening Stock 23.65 19.60

Domestic Production (+) 58.20 69.60
Total 81.85 89.20
Consumption 208.10 221.50
Deficit 126.25 132.30
Closing Stock (+) 19.60 22.50
Import Required – Edi. Oils 145.85 154.80
Non-Edible Oil import may be about 2 lac MT.

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 Oil-wise Import of Edible Oils
During 2015/16 and Projection for 2016/17

(Figures in Lac MT)

Oil 2015/16 2016/17 +/-

Palm (Edible) 84.70 92.40 + 7.70

Soybean Oil 41.90 42.00 + 0.10

Sun Oil 15.50 17.40 + 1.90

Rapeseed Oil 3.80 3.00 - 0.80

TOTAL 145.90 154.80 8.90

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 Import During 2011/12 to 2015/16

(Figures in Lac MT)

Increase in
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
5 Years
Palm 76.70 82.90 79.60 95.40 84.70 10%

Soya 10.80 10.90 19.50 29.80 41.90 290%

Sun 11.40 9.70 15.10 15.40 15.50 40%

Rape 0.90 0.30 2.00 3.60 3.80 --

TOTAL 99.80 103.80 116.20 144.20 145.90 50%

% +/- agast.
+ 19.2% + 4.0% + 11.9% + 24.1% + 1.2%
Prev. Year

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 Import Growth in 5 Years

1. Total import soared by almost 50%.

2. Palm oil import grown by 10%.
3. While Soya oil import climbed from almost 10 lac to
42 lac MT – a giant leap of 290% .
4. Sun oil import increased by 40%.
5. Import of Rapeseed oil depends on domestic
Mustard crop and spread between Rapeseed oil and
Soya oil.

15
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