Integrating

Wildfire
intoStrategic
Planning
f

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
EcosystemGoals
••ig
study
combines
the simulationhe
spatial potential
forlarge,
destructive
fire is a majorecological,
eco- Definingandmeasuring ecosystem
offorestdevelopmentonalarge landscape, nomic, and social issue in the goalswerepartof the SierraNevada
includingwildfire
occurrenceandeffects, SierraNevada,especially in themixed- Ecosystem Project(SNEP).Commis-
withthesearch formanagement actions coniferzonewherefire suppression sionedby Congress, SNEPwasto un-
and harvest have created fuel condi- dertake a "scientific review of the re-
thatachievemultiple
goals.Theapproach
tions believed to be unlike those of the mainingold growthin the national
was applied
totheEldorado National
Forest.
past. The health of the region's late- forests of the Sierra Nevada in Califor-
Resultinganalysis
suggeststhatactive
man-
successional forests, watersheds, nia,andfora studyof theentireSierra
agement (prescribed
fireandtimberharvest) human communities, and timber in-
couldenablethesimultaneousmovement
Nevadaecosystem..." (SNEP 1994).
dustryarealsoimportant issues.Were- Responding to Congress'semphasis on
toward thegoalsofdeveloping
complex porthereananalysis of foreststructure developing management strategiesfor
foreststructure
andreducinghigh-severity andcomposition overtimeunderdif- late-successional forests and water-
fire,
whilealso
limiting
watersheddisturbanceferentmanagement objectives for the sheds, thescience teamsought "tode-
andprovidingaregular timber
harvest. federal forests of the Sierra Nevada, velopa rangeof alternativemanage-
emphasizing theinteraction of forests, mentstrategies to maintainthehealth
fire, watersheds, and people.In this and sustainability of SierraNevada
By K. NormanJohnson,John workweintegrate firebehavior andef- ecosystems whileproviding resources
fects into a dynamic, spatial analysis to to meethumanneeds"(SNEP 1994)
Sessions,Jerry Franklin,and
guidethemanagement of federalfor- In our analysis, we focused on five
JohnGabriel eststowardmultiplegoals whilebegin- goalsidentifiedby SNEPscientists as
ning to recognize their placein the helpfulin improvingthe healthand
largerlandscape; the modelincorpo- sustainabilityof the SierraNevada
ratesconsiderable spatialdetailand ecosystems (SNEP1996a,1996b).We
portrays the patchyandepisodic na- use the Eldorado National Forest and
ture of wildfire. intermingled landsin the mid-Sier-
A number of recent studies, most ras-approximately 1,000,000acres--
fromthefieldoflandscape ecology,have to illustratehow we attemptedto
demonstrated spatialsimulations of achieve thefollowing goals.
wildfireacross landscapes (Green1993; I. Increasingthe general extent and
Keaneet al. 1996), described
considera- complexityof late-successional
forests.
tionsin thelikelyspread ofdisturbances SNEP incorporated an assessment
across landscapes (TurnerandRomme of late-successional and old-growth
1994),andaddressed thespatialsimula- (LSOG) forestconditionson federal
tionofvegetation condition acrosssim- lands in the Sierra Nevada (Frankhn
ulatedandreallandscapes (Turneret al. and Fites-Kaufmann1996). The as-
1989). Researchers in economicsand sessment utilizedcriteriathat recog-
managementplanning, meanwhile, nizedthatsuccessional changes in for-
haveincorporated nonspatial fireeffects estecosystemsarestructural aswellas
intoforestplanning formultipleobjec- compositional. In a typicalpatternfol-
tives(Johnson et al. 1986;ReedandEn- lowingclearcutting or high-seventy
rico1986;Boychuk andMartell1996). fire,a forestdevelops froma relatively
We haveattempted to merge these two simplestructure to variedarraysof •n-
approaches by combining the spatial dividualstructures andgreater spaual
simulation of forestdevelopment on a heterogeneity. Shiftsin tree species
largelandscape, including wildfireoc- composition donot occurduringsuc-
currenceand effects,with the searchfor cession on some sites, such as those
managementactions
thatachieve
multi- thatsupport
onlya singlespecies.
Peer-Reviewed plegoals. The SNEP assessment was based

42 January1998
erra NevadaForests

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
dition classeswithin each LSOG; the
spatialdistributionof theseclasses
relative
to streams,
aspect,andtopog-
raphy;andthe existingquantitative
structure of each class.We then eval-
uatedeachvegetationclasswithin
eachpolygonfor LSOG rank,using
criteria providedby Franklin and
Fites-Kaufmann: numberof large
trees,canopyclosure, andintermedi-
ate canopy.For westsidemixed
Figure/.Typicallate-successional old-growthin the SierraNevadamixed-conifer conifers,asanexample, a rank4 must
forests.High-qualitystandsexhibit highlevelsof structuralcomplexity,in terms of havesixto ninetreeslargerthan40
both individualstructures--variedtree sizesand conditions,largedecadenttrees, inches dbhperacre;a rank1 has.5 to
largesnags,andlargedownIogs•and verticaland horizontalheterogeneity. 1.5suchtreesperacre.OverallLSOG
Mosaics of contrastingstructuresare common.Thelandscape of AspenValley, polygonrank wasestimatedas an
Yosemite,representedhere,hasbeenmanagedwith prescribedfire. acreage-weighted average across vege-
tationclasses.
Thisapproach gaveini-
entirelyon structuraldefinitionsof SNEPwasdoneat thelandscape scale; tial LSOGrankings for thepolygons
LSOG forestconditions for practical theLSOGpolygons wereidentified and similar but not identical to those de-
andscientific reasons, including thede- characterized by morethan 100 re- velopedby Franklinand Fites-Kauf-
sireto recognize a gradient in LSOG source specialists fromthe landman- mann.
forestfunction in a region wheremany agement organizations. Polygons were Onegoalof thesesimulations isre-
manipulated forest stands haveretained areas judged to berelatively uniformin versing thesignificant declinein the
some level of LSOG function. The type and distributionof vegetation amountandcomplexity of LSOGfor-
structuralcriteriausedwerethosetypi- patches (seeFranklinandFites-Kauf- est in the national forests' commercial
calofhigh-quality LSOGforests in the mann 1996 for details).On the Eldo- foresttypesfound by Franklinand
Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer zone: a radoNationalForest, forexample, the Fites-Kaufmann. Achievement of
rangeof treesizes, significantnumbers forest was divided into 180 LSOG higherLSOGrankscanbeassisted by
oflargeanddecadent trees,
largesnags polygons averaging 3,000acres. A com- standgrowth,prescribed fire,or cer-
and downlogs,areasof high tree- positeLSOGstructural ranking wasas- taintypesof timberharvest. If thepo-
canopy density, anda highdegree of signed to eachpolygon ona scale of 0 tential for high-severityfire is an
heterogeneity in structuralconditions. (no contributionto LSOG forestfunc- issue, prescriptionsto controlunder-
Structure isparticularly important: tion) to 5 (veryhigh contribution). storystructureand canopydensity
h•gh-qualityLSOG forestsin the Franklin and Fites-Kaufmann(1996; should not lose essential features of
mixed-conifer zonearecommonly mo- seealsoFranklinet al. 1997) alsoiden- LSOG structures. The tension be-
saicsof contrasting structural
units(fig. tifiedclusters of LSOGpolygons with tweenthe two goalsof achieving
1) ratherthan extensiveuniformstands above-average levelsof LSOGcharac- LSOGfeatures andreducing therisk
of large,oldtreesof eitherhighorlow teristics(calledareasof late-successionalof high-severity fire led usto usea
density.Furthermore, both pioneer emphasis) aspotential focusareasfor LSOGrank4 asthehighest targetfor
species(typicallypines) and more strategiesto maintain high-quality late-successionalforests.
shade-tolerant associates (commonly LSOG conditions in the Sierra Nevada. 2. Reducingthe potential for high-
firs)arerepresented in suchforests.Fre- For our analysis,we needed a severityfire.
quentfiresof lightto moderate inten- quantitative description of the forest Most large fires in the Sierra
sitytypically maintainthesecomposi- withinthe LSOG polygons to simu- Nevada occur in "extreme weather"--
uonalandstructural conditions in per- late LSOG rank, growth,mortality, duringhighwindsandothercondi-
petuity,although the spatialarrange- and harvest over time on federal for- tionsthat enablefiresto escape early
mentofthemosaic maychange. ests. We used Forest Service informa- suppression (Bahro 1996; Sessions
Mappingof LSOG conditions in tionto identifyforestvegetation con- et al. 1996).Potential damage from

Journal
of Forestry 4:•
 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
Kilometers
5 16 15 20

61 23 4 5678910

Miles

Basal area at risk

in a wildfire

• <20% Figure2. Initial fire severity Figure3. Fireseveritypotential

potential on the Eldorado in the fifth decade on the
-- 1 21-40 National Forest. Eldorado National Forest,
• 41-60 without activemanagement.
• >60
• Nonfederal
land

wildfires in extreme weather was mea- In classifying

fireregimes basedon oftenlimitedbypursuit ofothergoals.
suredby percentof basalareathat fire severity,
Agee(1993)statesthat 3. Restoringriparianareasand water-
wouldbekilled,whetherby surface "standsin lowseverityfireregimeshave sheds.
fireorbycrownfire.Weestimatedthe 20 percentor lessof thebasalareare- To helpmeasure watershed distur-
potentialfor damagefromfireunder movedby fire,whilestands in high bance, werecognized threeriparianin-
extreme conditions for each forest severityfireregimeshave70 percent or fiuencezones,basedon Kondolf et al.
vegetation class based on likelyflame moreof their basalarearemoved,"and (1996):
length. Flame length and scorch that stands in moderate-severity l. A zoneof approximately 150feet
heightwerecalculated usingcustom regimes oftenexperience a mixtureof on eachsideof the stream(aboutone
fuel models and the USDA ForestSer- high-andlow-severity fires.For the treeheight). Thisapproximates thearea
vicefirebehavior andfuelmodeling purposes ofthisstudy, wedefined high thatcontributes energy andnutrients,
system (BEHAVE) (Cousar et al. severityas a basalarealossof more largely through treefall,totheriparian
1996;Sapsis et al. 1996).Inputsin- than60 percent overalargelandscape.system. It generally encompasses the
cludedelevation, slope,andaspect. In ouranalysis, firebehavior canbe areaoccupied byriparian species.
Potentialdamage to livetreeswasthen modified by human intervention 2. A zone of variable width that be-
estimated asa function of species,di- throughcommercial timberharvest, ginsapproximately 150feetfromthe
ameter,height to the live crown, fuel-reduction treatments (including stream. Calculated on the basis of
canopy closure,andtopography, with mechanicaltreatment andprescribed stream widthandadjacent slope steep-
the potentialfor damagemodified burning),andcreation of fuelbreaks, ness, thiszoneiswherelandmanage-
over time as the characteristicsof the ordefensible
fuelprofile zones--quar- ment activities could affect the near-
standchanged. Stemmortalitywas ter-milestripswherethe overstory stream zone.
basedon fire-effects probabilitiesfor canopyclosure andunderstory fuels 3. The remainder of the watershed.
noncrown fires from the USDA first-
aremaintainedat low levels(Weather- Watershed disturbance was mea-
orderfireeffectsmodel(seeCousaretspoonand Skinner1996). The first suredbythepercentage of equivalent
al. 1996).Crownfireswerepossible two methods affectfire severity;
the roadedacres(ERA) in the watershed
under certain combinations of flame thirdaffectsmainlyfire size.Timber by riparianinfluence
zone.ERA isan
lengths
andcrownclosures,
andalsoif harvest,however,can causeexcessive index of watershed disturbance used
ladder fuels carried fire to the live
watershed disturbance or retard extensively by the ForestServicein
crownof theoverstor)5
basedon rela- achievement
of late-successional
goals. California and is one of the measures
tionships
foundin Alexander(1988). Thus,treatments involving
harvest
are usedin harvestplanningfor private

44 January1998
 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
r'• Noburns
Figure4. Fireseveritypotential Figure5. Number
ofburnsperlate-
in the fifth decade on the •! 1-2burns successional
old-growthpolygon
Eldorado National Forest,with over50 years,with I0 simulations,
• 3-4burns on the Eldorado National Forest.This
active management.
resultcanbe interpretedasthe
• 5-6burns
probability
thata polygon
willburn
•! 7-8burns duringthe 50 years.

landin theSierras.
We recognized two late,tosome degree,
theeffectofwild- achieve a lower-order
goal.In general,
setsof ERA limitsin the analysis:
one fires on Sierra Nevada forestsshould theprimary goalwascontrollingwa-
that approximated the averageERA alsohelpachieve thisgoal. tersheddisturbance,
the secondary
"threshold of concern" on the Eldo- 5. Providing cost-effective goalwasachieving
sustainable, a particular
LSOG
timber harvest volume. rank with a foreststructurethat had a
radoNationalForest
whilegivingmore
weightto disturbance
nearstreams Timber harvestvolumefrom federal relatively lowpotential forhigh-sever-
than far from them, and anotherthat landswasbotha by-product of reach- ity fire, and the tertiarygoalwas
maintainedERA limits only in the ingothergoals and,in somealloca- achieving aneven-flow timberharvest
near-stream zone. tions,a goalitself.In some alternatives,(tothedegree thattimberharvest was
Watershed disturbance was con- timbersales hadto payforthemselves;permitted). Weachieved asmuchof
trolled byLSOGpolygon. These poly- others included both merchantable thesecondary goalaspossible without
gons wereofthescale (3,000to 10,000 and submerchantablematerial and compromising theprimary goal,and
acres)recommended for usewith the thusmightnotpayforthemselves. A in turn, we achievedasmuchof the
ERAmethod.In establishing the ini- nondeclining yield requirement was tertiary goalaspossible withoutcom-
tial ERA levels,we accountedfor the imposed onharvest flow. promising thesecondary goal.Putan-
existing condition
ofthewatershed, in- Wildfires were simulated after the otherway,we triedto achieve the
dudingallownerships. All ownerships sustainableharvest levelwas calculated. lower-order goals afterfirstachieving
then contributed ERA amountsbased Stands thatexperienced firemortality specified values forthehigher-order
on theirprojected activities(seeMen- beforetheir scheduled harvestwere de- goals.We believethatthisapproach is
ningetal. 1996). ducted from the estimated sustainable consistent with evolving directionfor
4. Reintroducing
historicalecosystem aftera wildfirecould management
level.Salvage ofthenational
forests.
processes. occur
where"green" timberharvest
was
permitted
if thesalvagewas consistent Other Considerations
Rebuilding LSOGforests, reducing
the potentialfor high-severity fire withoverallgoals. •ldlij•. Ratherthanfocusing on
(whereit is believedhistorically un- particular wildlife
species,
wefocused
commonor absent),and restoring The Hierarchyof Goals onrestoring critical
habitats
identified
streamsand watersheds shouldhelp Goals for federalforestmanage- in theSNEPreports, suchasrebuild-
reintroduce historical ecosystem ment were ordered such that achieve- inglate-successional forests,
restoring
processes. Employing prescribed fire mentofa higher-order goalwouldnot riparianareasandwatersheds, and
and silvicultural methods that simu- be compromised by attemptsto reintroducinghistoricalecosystem

Journalof Forestry 45
 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
processes.How wellthemanagement terns, includingvarious selection cessional forests,reducefire seventy,
strategies
meetrequirements of partic- methods, couldbeusedalongside pre- andreintroduce naturalprocesses.
ularspecies mayneedstudy, however. scribed fire to sustain the forestsof the Alternative 3 attempts to achievean
Silviculturalmethods.Twotypesof Sierra Nevada and reduce fire hazards. LSOG rank of 4 in areasof late-succes-
human intervention could be used to Alternatives. In Johnson et al. sionalemphasis andanLSOGrankof
meetgoals:timberharvestand pre- (1996)wedeveloped numerous alter- 3 in thematrix.It uses prescribedfire
scribedfire.Undisturbed growthwas natives thatvariedin goals emphasized, across the landscape while allowing
alsoconsidered a possible"activity." activitiespermitted,andbudgets avail- timber harvest in the matrix.
We lookedahead50 yearsin five 10- able.Wepresent fourof thosealterna- Alternative 4 has the same LSOG
yearperiods. tives here. goalsasalternative 3, usesprescribed
A wide varietyof intensities and Alternative 1 does not use active fireacross thelandscape, allowstimber
timingofharvests onfederal landwere management, suchasprescribed fire harvest everywhere outside wilderness
developed for eachvegetation class. and timber harvest,but ratherrelieson areas, andemploys fuelbreaks.
Harvestwasoriented towardachieving undisturbed growthto achievethe
the goalsfor standdevelopment over goals. SolutionMethodology
timeusinga standoptimizeroverlaid Alternative2 usesprescribed fire In ouranalysis weuseda modelspe-
on the FVS individual tree simulator across thelandscape to attainlate-suc- ciallybuiltforthisproject calledSimu-
(Cousar1996). Generally, thesehar-
vestsconcentrated onreducing shade-
toleranttreesin theunderstory.
Removing selected
species andsizes
in eachcuttingenabled usto reachthe
late-successional
goalsthecontinuous
presence of largetreesacross theland-
scape--while addressingfire hazards.
In practice,this approach wouldre-
quirebothindividual treeselection and
groupselection. Workdonefor SNEP
(HelmsandTappeiner1996) points
out thata varietyof silviculturalsys-

46 January1998
lationandAnalysis
of FireEffectsin firesin the West (Strausset al. 1989), LSOGforestbecause of high-severity
the Forestsof the Sierra Nevada, or wemodeled onlylargefires.On theEl- fires(table2). Many combinations of
"SafeForests"(Sessions
et al. 1996). doradoNationalForest,"large"was prescribed fire and timber harvest
SafeForests is a strategicplanning defined asgreaterthan3,000acres. would rebuild late-successional com-

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
modelforanalyzing strategies
forlate- Otherdisturbance In addi- plexityataboutthesame
processes. rate.
successional
forestsin fire-prone
land- tionto wildfire,insects andpathogens Much of the pine and mixed-
scapes,
aswell asfor measuring and havealsobeenmajorfactors in shaping conifer forestiscurrently susceptible to
hmitingeffects on riparianareasand the Sierra Nevada forests (SNEP high-severity fire(fig.2, table 2).With-
watersheds.
Themodelcanalsoaccept 1996b).We represented theeffects of outactivemanagement, theextentof
goals
for (orlimitson)timberharvest. insects andpathogens onlyto thede- these forestssusceptible to high-sever-
The ForestServicehademployed greethattheyarereflected in existing ity firewouldincrease (figs.2 and3,
hnearprogramming to solveoptimiza- condition of thevegetation classesand table2). Fueltreatments (prescribed
uonproblems duringthelastroundof in the projectedchangesin these fireora combination of prescribed fire
planning with theFORPLANmodel classesassociatedwith the stand simu- andtimberharvest) couldsignificantly
(Johnsonet al. 1986). Because
we had lations.We hopeto addthecapability lowertheriskofhigh-severity fire(figs.
somuchspatialdetailandwantedto to represent periodicoutbreaks of in- 2 and4).
beableto representnonlinearrelation- sects andpathogens in futureversions Buildingfuelbreakscouldreduce
ships,
weused instead
agradient
search of Safe Forests. thesizeofwildfires andincrease safety
heuristic
thatseeks"good,"
ornear-op- Recognition ofmultiplespatialscales. for firefighters asa firststeptoward
umal, solutions; it is based on the Toachieve thegoals of theanalysis,we limitingthe extentof high-severity
methodsdiscussed
in Reeves(1993). recognized fourspatialscales: (1) the fires.Withoutanaggressive fuel-reduc-
SeeMurrayandChurch(1995)for Sierra Nevada rangeforunderstandingtionprogram to complement thefuel
ampies ofrecentapplications
ofheuris- thecondition ofthevarious ecosystemsbreaksystem, however, muchof the
ucsto forestplanningproblems. andfor designing a rangewide LSOG forestwould remain susceptible to
Wildfire.We first attemptedto system, (2) theEldorado NationalFor- high-severity fire.
achievethe goalswithoutwildfire. estfor estimating sustainable timber Keeping watersheddisturbance
G•venthe plannedactionsthat best harvests, (3) LSOG polygons for as- withincommonly suggested limitsfor
metthegoals ofanalternative,
wethen sessing LSOGrankandwatershed dis- federal forests couldsignificantly affect
generateda series
ofwildfires
underex- turbance,and (4) combinations of ri- theroleof timberharvest in achieving
tremeweather conditionsforeachpe- parian zone and forest condition the goalsof the analysis: theselimits
riodfromaprobabilisticsimulator
that withinLSOGpolygons forprojecting halve the timber harvestthat would oth-
considered
weather,firesize,andigni- foreststructure, yield,firehazard, and erwise occur.Historicandexpected ac-
uonprobability
to selecttheamount, contribution to ERA. tionsonnonfederal landwereespecially
s•ze,and locationof fires.Average important in determining theamount
amountof wildfireperdecade andthe One Wildfire Simulation of action on federal land consistentwith
rangein thisamountwereobtained Our discussion emphasizes thepine limits on watershed disturbance.
from nationalforestrecords to help and mixed-conifer forestson the Eldo- The annual"green"
timberharvest
construct theprobability distribution radoNationalForest(roughly, thered level on the Eldorado National Forest
of fire size(Bahro1996). We assumed andorange areainfigure 2). Thesefor- forthenext50years
wasprojected
at0
that the fires occurred in extreme esttypescontainmostof thecommer- to 45 million board feet under the dif-
weather, sincethose are the conditions cialforestandhaveexperienced decline ferent alternatives. Timber harvest
thatoftenenablefireto escape initial in late-successional complexity, in- would be concentrated in the smaller-
suppression attempts. creasein fuel loads, and reduction in diameterclasses,at leastfor the next
Eachsimulatedfire spreadfrom firefrequency compared withhistorical fewdecades, althoughcreation of fuel
polygonto polygon,followingthe conditions andprocesses. We usedone breaks wouldmeanharvesting some
hkely wind directionin extreme passof thewildfiresimulator, withan largetrees. Timberharvest wouldcon-
weather,to fulfill the selectedfire size. average levelof fireoverthefiveperi- sumeonlya smallproportion of over-
The firehaddifferingeffects on the ods,to create theresults reported here. all growthundermost alternatives;
forest,basedon the condition of the Average LSOGrankin thepineand muchof theremaining growth would
vegetation classes in thepolygons that mixed-conifer forests increases over go towardreestablishing late-succes-
burned. At theendof eachperiod, de- time in all alternatives,as does the sional forests while some would be
cisionsweremadewhetherto salvage amount of LSOG rank 4 and 5. Over consumed byprescribed fireandwild-
or postpone green-tree harvest on the 50 years,little or no activemanage- fire. Once late-successionalforests are
burnedforest,depending on distur- ment (fire suppression but no pre- reestablished,the timber harvestlevel
bance levels in the watershed of that scribedfire or timber harvest)would consistent withmaintaining thesefor-
polygon. result in the fastest increase of late-suc- estscould increase.
Because largefiresaccount for al- cessional complexity (table1) butalso We measured overall timber harvest
most all of the area burned in forest the largestamountof low-ranked activityin termsof the numberof

Journalof Forestry 47
 firecanbesafelyapplied;smokeman- sional forests. SNEP scientists had to
agement limitsthe useof prescribed createboth measures; much discussion
fire;the majorinvestment neededby of their adequacy will and should
prescribed fire is hardto sustain; and occur.Despitethelong-termimpor-

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
timber harvest has limitations relative tanceof measuringandcontrolling cu-
towatershed effectsandrepresentationmulative effects from federal lands
of historicalecosystem processes. (surelysincepassage of the National
Environmental PolicyAct in 1969),
Effectsof RepeatedSimulations few current measures of cumulauve
To assessthevariability in wildfires, watershedeffects
areaccepted byscien-
we did 10 simulations, eachreflecting tistsandusable bymanagers. Measures
different weather,fire size,and areaof like ERA rest on a combination of un-
occurrence basedon the probabilistic derstandingof ecosystem processes,
fire simulator. We foundthe highest logicanda verymodestamountof ev-
variabilityfromsimulation-to-simula-idence. Although themeasures of eco-
tion in the lowestLSOG rank (0 and system healthandsustainability arenot
1) andhighestranks(4 and 5); the likelyto becommonly accepted any-
middleranks(2 and3) showedconsid- timesoon,ecosystem management wfil
erablestability. haveto proceed.
Using10 wildfiresimulations en- Giventhelimitations of ouranaly-
abledus to developa map showing sis,what havewe learned?First, with-
probability of wildfireunderextreme outactivemanagement, thepineand
weatherduringa 50-yearperiod(fig. mixed-conifer forests of the Eldorado
5). The simulations suggest thatmore NationalForest areat perilfromhigh-
thantwothirdsof thepineandmixed- severity fire.Second, it appears possible
coniferforests haveat leasta 10 per- simultaneously to increase thegeneral
cent chanceof fire (one burn) under extentandcomplexity of late-succes-
extreme weatherin thenext50 years, sionalforests andto reduce thepoten-
and almost a fifth have at least a 30 tialforhigh-severity fire.
percentchance of fire (threeor more Third, the cumulative effects of
burns)without fuel breaks.Adding public and privateactivitiescould
fuel breaks somewhat reduces the over- greatlylimitfederal timberharvest, es-
all probabilitythat theseforests will peciallyin watersheds with mixed
burn in extreme weather. ownerships. We assumed thatnational
timesa standin the pineand mixed- forestmanagers would reactto ex-
conifer forests was entered for harvest Discussion pectedactions on privatelandsbyre-
over50years. Depending onthealter- Forestplanning hasalways reliedon ducingtheirharvests soasnot to v•o-
native,0 to 23 percent of theseforests a combination of art and science. late watershed limits. We did not sh•ft
would be entered for harvest at least Nowhere has this been clearer than in federalactivitiesto verylow impact
once(table3). In the activemanage- strategic forestplanning forecosystemmethods, whichmaybenecessary for
ment alternatives(2, 3, 4), all acres management. Very few assumptions federalharvests in mixedownerships.
wouldreceive prescribed fireona one- thatwemadein thisanalysis couldnot Fourth,management of intermin-
or two-period cycleexcept in thepe- bechallenged ashavinga shakyscien- gledandadjacent nonfederal lands wfil
riod of harvest. tific base. Take the measurement of affectthe success of anystrategy for
Timberharvest generally paidforit- "healthand sustainability" for Sierra federallands,sinceit affects theperfor-
self in the different alternatives, al- Nevadaecosystems. SNEPmadeonly manceof fuelbreaks, thefunctioning
thoughthe net revenuefluctuated modestprogress in developing mea- of late-successional forests on federal
widely dependingon the sizeand suresof healthandsustainability be- land, and the level of disturbance m
species harvested. On theotherhand, causeof both limited time and the dif- shared watersheds. Ecosystem manage-
sizable investments would be needed ficultyof quantifying suchmeasures. mentwillbedifficultwithoutcoopera-
for prescribed fire. Two of our importantmeasures-- tionacross ownerships; considering the
Prescribed fire and timber harvest LSOG rank and ERA level--lack con- vegetative structureand composition
wouldreducethelikelihoodof high- clusive scientific studies that would on nonfederal land seemsespecially
severityfire more rapidlythan pre- help evaluatetheir appropriateness.important.
scribed fire alone. A combination of Despitethe long-termstudyof the Finally,themethodology employed
practices is preferablein anycase: the SierraNevada,wefoundno commonly here(figs. 2-5) should beanaidto col-
buildupof fuelsoftenrequiressome acceptedmeasures of either stand laborative learningaboutalternauve
initialtimberharvest beforeprescribed structure or patchsizeof late-succes- strategies for managing SierraNevada

48 January1998
œorests.
Recognitionoœthe episodic gress.
Vol.II, chap.
nia,Centers
36.Davis:
University
ofCalifor-
forWaterandWildlandResources.
andprobabilistic
natureoœwildfire
in- MENNING,K.,D.C.E•^N, K.N.JOHNSON,andJ.SES-
creases
thecredibility
andrealismoœ SIONS. 1996.Modelingaquatic
andriparian
systems,

Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/jof/article-abstract/96/1/42/4613803 by Universidade Estadual Paulista J�lio de Mesquita Filho user on 13 August 2019
theanalyses
andshouldhelpthepublic assessing
cumulative
watershed
effects,
andlimiting
understandthe relativerisksoœaltema- watershed
disturbance.
In SierraNevada
Ecosystem
Project:
Finalreport
toCongress.
Addendum.Davis:
uvestrategies
œorthese
œorests. University
ofCalifornia,
Centers
forWater
andWild-
land Resources.
MuP,
RAY,
A.,andR.CHURCH.
1995.Heuristic
solution
Literature Cited approaches
tooperational
forest
planning
problems.
AGEE,
J. 1993.Fireecology
ofPacific
Northwest
frests. Operations
Research
Spektrum
17:193-203.
Covelo,CA:IslandPressß REED,
WJ.,andD. ENRICO.
1986.Optimal
harvest
ALEXANDER,
M. 1988ß
Helpwithmaking
crown
firehaz- scheduling
attheforest
level
inthepresence
ofthe
ardassessmentsß
In Protecting
people
andhomesj%m riskof fire.Canadian
Journal
of Forest
Researeh
wddfire
intheInterior
•st, comps.
W Fisher
andS. 16:266-78.
Arno,147-56.General
Technical
Report
INT-251. REEVES,
C. 1993.Modernheuristic
techniques
fir combi-
Ogden,
UT:USDAForest
Service. natorialproblems.
NewYork:
John Wiley& Sons.
B^HRO,
B.1996ß
Asummary
ofEldorado
National
For- SAPS/S,
D., B. B^HRO,
J.GABRIEL,R. JONES,
andG.
estandPlumas
NationalForest
firebehavior
charac- GREENWOOD.
1996.An assessment
of currentrisks,
teristics
fortheSierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Project
fire fuels,
andpotential
firebehavior
intheSierra
Nevada.
modeling
effortß
Unpublished
report
onfilewith In Sierra
Nevada
Leosystem
Project:
Finalreport
to
SNEP. Congress.
Vol.III. Davis:
University
ofCalifornia, Providing
BOYCHUK,
D., andD. MARTELL.
1996ß
A multi-stage, CentersforWaterandWildlandResources. Scientific Tree Care
stochastic
programming
model
forsustainable
forest- SESSIONS,
J.,K.N.JOHNSON,
D. SAPSIS,
B.BAHRO,and Since 1907
level
timber
supply
under
riskoffire.Forest
Science J.T.GABRIEL.
1996.
Methodology
forsimulating
for-
42(1):10-26. estgrowth,
fireeffects,
timber
harvest,
andwatershed for Residential &
COUSAR,
P.,J. SESSIONS,
andK.N.JOHNSON.
1996. disturbance
under
different
managementregimes.
In Commercial Property
Methodology
forestimating
stand
projections
under Sierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Project:
Finalreport
toCon-
&fierent
goalsß
In Sierra
NevadaEcosystem
Project: gress.
Addendum.
Davis:
University
ofCalifornia,
Final
report
toCongress.
Addendumß
Davis:
University CentersforWaterandWildlandResources. BARTLETT
of California,
sources.
Centers
forWaterandWildlandRe- TURNER,
M., R. GARDNER,
1989.
Predicting
V. DAI,E,andR. O'NEIL.
thespread
ofdisturbance
across
het-
W TREE
EXPERTS CorporateOffice:
Stamford,
CT
FRANKLIN,
J.E,andJ.A.FITES-KAuFMANN.
1996.
Analy- erogeneous
landscapes.
Oikos55:121-29.
s•sof late-successional
forests.
In SierraNevada
Eco- (203) 323-1131
TURNER,
M., andW RUMME.
1994.Landscape
dynam-
system
Project:
Finalreport
toCongress.
Vol.II, chap. icsin crownfireecosystems.
Landscape
Ecology
21.Davis:
University
ofCalifornia,
Centers
forWater 9(1):5%77.
and Wildland Resources. SlFRRANEVADA ECOSYSTEM
PROJECT
(SNEP).1994.
FRANKLIN,
J.E,D. GRABER,
K.N.JOHNSON,
J. FITES- Progress
report.
Davis:
University
ofCalifornia,
Cen-
KAUFMANN,
K. MENNING,
D. PARSONS,
J. SESSIONS, tersforWaterandWildlandResources.
T SeIES,
J.TAPPEINER,
andD. THOILNBURGH.
1997. ß1996a.
Summary.
In Sierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Alternative
approaches
toconservation
oflatesucces- Project:
Final
report
toCongress.
Davis:
University
of
sxonal
forests
in the SierraNevadaandtheirevalua- California,
Centers
forWaterandWildlandRe-
Ugh.In Sierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Project:
Finalreport sources.

toCongress.
Addendum.
Davis:
University
ofCalifor- ß1996b.Assessment
summaries
andmanage-
ma,CentersforWaterandWildlandResources. mentstrategies.
In Sierra
Nevada Ecosystem
Project.'
GREEN,K., M. F/NNEY,
J. CAMPBELL,
D. WEINSTEIN, Finalreport
toCongress.
Vol.I. Davis:
University
of
andV.LANDRUM. 1995.FIRE!UsingGIStopredict California, Centers for WaterandWildlandRe- , Seedlings
and
firebehavior.
HELMS,
Journal ofForestry
93(5):21-25.
J.A.,andJ.C.TApPEINER.
]996.Silviculture
sources.

in STRAUSS, D., L. BEDN^R, andR. MEES.1989.Do one

, Transplants
theSierra.
InSierra
Nevada Ecosystem
Project:
Finalre- percent offorestfires
causeninety-nine
percent
ofthe
porttoCongress.
Vol.II,chap.
15.Davis:
University
of damage? ForestScience
35(2)319-28. Pine: Austrian,
Balkan,Japanese
Black,Lodgepole,
California,
Centers
for WaterandWildlandRe- WFAI'HERSPOON,
C.E,andC.N. SKINN•P,.
1996.Land- Mugho,Ponderosa,
fled,
White,
Virginia
sources.
scape-level
strategies
forforest
fuelmanagement.
In Spruce:
Black
Hills,
Blue,
Norway,
Serbian,White
JOHNSON,
K.N.,T. STUART,
andS.CRIM.1986.FOR- Sierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Project.'
Finalreport
toCOn- Fir: Balsam,
Canaan,
Concolor,
Douglas,
Fraser
PLAN(version
II)-an overview.
Washington,
DC: gress.
Vol.II, chap.
56.Davis:
University
ofCalifor- Hemlock: Canadian
USDAForestService,
LandManagementPlanning nia,Centers
forWaterandWildlandResources. Birch:Allegheny,
Black,
European,
Japanese,
River
System
Section. Dogwoods: Chinese,
Gray,
Silky,
White
JOHNSON,
K.N.,J.SESSIONS,
andJ.EFRANKLIN.
1996. Locust:Black,
Bristly,
Honey
Initialresults
fromsimulation
ofalternative
manage- Maples:Norway,
Red,
Silver,
Sugar
ment strategies
fortwonational oftheSierra K. Norman
forests Johnson(e-mail.'
johnsonn@ Oaks:Black,
Bur,
English,
Pin,
Scarlet,
Sawtooth,
fled,
Nevada In Sierra
NevadaEcosystem Finalre- ucs.
Project: orst.
edu)is pro•ssorof•rest re- White

porttoCongress.
Addendum.Davis:
University
ofCal- sources,
JohnSessions
ispro•ssor
of•rest ButtonBush,Catalpa,Crabapple,
Hack-
ifornia,
Centers
forWaterandWildland
Resources. berry,Hawthorne,
Latch
KEANE,
R., P.MORGAN,
andS. RUNNING.
1996.FIRE- engineering,
andJohnGabrielwasre-
BGC A mechanistic
ecological
process
model
fr simu- search
associate
in theCollege
ofForestry,
Write,
phone
orfaxforourwholesale
list.
&ting
firesuccession
onconiferous
j3rest
landscapes
ofthe Oregon
StateUniversity,
Corvallis
OR
northern
Rocky
Mountains.
INT-RP-484.
Ogden,
UT: 97331.JerryFranklinispro•ssorof
USDA ForestService.
KONDOLF,
G.M., R. KATTELMANN,M. EMBURY,and
ecosystem
sciences
in theCollege
ofForest
D.C.ERMAN.1996.Status
of riparian
habitat.
In Resources
at theUniversity
of lY&shing-
Sierra
Nevada
Ecosystem
Project.'
Finalreport
toCon- ton, Seattle.

Journalof Forestry 49