Nugaal – Situation Analysis

October 2012
Context

The humanitarian challenges in Nugaal fall into two categories: isolated pockets of crises usually
predicated on seasonal variations and a protracted problem of displacement due to conflict in south-
central. The seasonal issues principally include drought, floods and fire in IDP settlements. The
protracted displacement is centered in the main towns of Garowe, Burtinle and Dangaroyo.

The population of Nugaal region is approximately 145,341 (UNDP 2005), of which 90,592 are rural
residents and 54,749 are urban population. The main economic sustenance of the population in Nugaal is
livestock. However, fishery is another key economic activity for the coastal communities in Eyl and
Dangorayo districts.

There are 10,000 IDPs in Garowe (UNHCR October 2012), of which the majority (90 per cent) originates
from southern and central Somalia. Additionally there are an estimated 5,000 IDPs, mostly displaced due
to drought, in Burtinle and Dangorayo districts of Nugaal. These drought-affected IDPs are not formally
registered and or recognized. They are however covered by the clusters in terms of assistance. Most of
these IDPs are living in appalling conditions with insufficient shelter, sanitation and unreliable sources of
income. In addition, these IDPs are often at risk of fire outbreaks and flooding, especially those living
along the river bank of Garowe.

Humanitarian Needs

Food Security:
Post Gu’ 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and Famine Early Warning Systems
Network (FEWS-NET) survey Integrated Phase Classification reports that the food security of 35,000
people in urban and rural areas are stressed, while 20,000 (urban) and 5,000 (rural) population are in
crisis and humanitarian emergency respectively. Effectively, 41 per cent of the total population is in
stressed, humanitarian crisis and emergency situations.

Nutrition:
The nutrition situation ranges from serious to very critical with a deterioration in the condition Garowe
IDPs and Nugaal Valley livelihood zone. The malnutrition rates at GAM level for Garowe IDPs 19.2 per
cent (15.9- 23.1) and SAM rate of 4.7 per cent (0.9- 3.7), including two (0.2 per cent) oedema cases,
indicating a sustained critical nutrition situation. The targets of the nutrition and food security clusters for
1
Nugaal are 65,000 people by the end of the 2012 . Although the nutrition situation in Nugaal Valley
Livelihood zone has deteriorated from critical to very critical, the overall humanitarian situation of Nugaal
region, with the exception of the Coastal Deeh, still remains stable.

WASH:
Water is available in Nugaal Valley livelihood zone but the quality is poor and salty. In other livelihood
zones, access to water is critical and most of rural communities use traditional water reservoirs harvested
in the two rainy seasons. IDPs in Garowe are reporting challenges accessing water and mostly resorting
to buying water for consumption and cooking. The recent performance of Deyr 2012 rains was good in all
livelihood zones of Nugaal region except in Nugaal Valley Livelihood zone.

Shelter & NFIs:

Due to limited land availability and security of land tenure, sustainable / durable shelter solutions remain a
major gap in the region.

1
FSNAU and Nutrition Reports, September 2012.

1
Protection:
The presence of IDPs in Garowe, Burtinle and other parts of the region continue to pose a number of
protection concerns. The quality of IDP shelters and their living conditions are recurrent concerns. The
main protection issues include GBV, fire outbreaks, detention, evictions, and limited referral and response
mechanisms. The UNHCR supported “Puntland policy on IDPs” remains at discussion level within the
Government of Puntland and it is hoped that this policy will be endorsed by parliament in the very near
future.
2
Responses and Gaps

WASH:
The WASH cluster has exceeded its year-end target by 83 per cent in the provision of sustained access
to water. A total of 55,729 people now have access to water. However, the target of ensuring that 30,050
have access to safe drinking water is currently less than expected with only 33 per cent of needs being
met.

It has always been challenging to provide sufficient drinking water to IDPs especially in newly established
relocation sites / settlement due to the lack of permanent water sources in that area. Hence there is an
urgent need to establish a permanent water source to cater for water needs of the IDP and the host
population within the pre-existing and newly established permanent IDPs settlement, as well as for the
nearby urban poor.

Food Security:
3
The Food Security Cluster (FSC) has set a monthly target of 35,000 people to be assisted through
interventions geared towards improving access to food and/or safety nets. To date, 49,384 people of
35,000 have been reached, representing 141 per cent of the end-year target. Additionally the cluster
assisted 22,098 people out of a target of 12,000 through livelihood investment activities.

Nutrition:
There are two interventions to address nutrition, 1) targeting children from 6-9 months of age, and 2)
children from 6-59 months, pregnant and lactating women. In targeting children from 6-9 months, 285 per
cent of the intended target of 3,059 children has been reached. Efforts to ensure that 49,200 older
children (6–59 months), pregnant and lactating women are reached by the end of 2012 show a significant
shortfall with only 17 per cent (8,591) served.

Health:
The cluster assisted 31,436 people through the provision of primary and/or basic secondary health care
services and the vaccination of children under 5 and women of child-bearing age in Nugaal region. Within
Nugaal, 44 per cent of a targeted 70,890 people now have access to health care while 62 per cent of a
targeted 69,150 children under 5 have been vaccinated.

Protection:
Both of these clusters have reported that a total of 14,267 of a targeted 25,457 people were reached
through interventions aiming at providing access to preventive and/or responsive protection services, as
well as providing of emergency and appropriate shelter assistance in Nugaal region.

Shelter:
The shelter cluster is currently engaged in implementing projects that will provide 600 permanent housing
for IDP families in Garowe and Burtinle in lands donated by the local communities. The relocation of IDPs
and land are long standing issues in Nugaal. In 2012, the shelter cluster, in collaboration with the

2
All data provided on responses is based on September 2012 Single Reporting Format, which means the figures on
response cover up to the middle of September, unless otherwise indicated.
3
In 2012, Food Aid Cluster and Agriculture and Livelihoods Cluster merged into a newly formed Food Security
Cluster (FSC) which is jointly led by WFP and FAO.

2
Municipality and Ministry of Interior, provided a permanent housing site for 600 IDP families in Garowe
and Burtinle. UNHCR recently started voluntary returns of IDPs from Garowe to Bay and Bakool but the
returns are currently suspended due to insecurity in the area.

Likely Developments:

The start of the Deyr 2012 rains was normal in Hawd livelihood zone and below normal in Nugaal Valley
Livelihood zone of Nugaal region. The rains are anticipated to be good and therefore the food security
situation is expected to improve further.Pasture and water sources are expected to be
regenerated.Consequently, this is expected to lead to an increase in animal and milk production, an
improvement in food security and the nutrition situation. A mild to moderate El Niño is likely to start
between now and December. This will lead to average to above average October to December Deyr
rains.

The coastal belt of Nugaal remains in need of humanitarian assistance and is generally under-served.
This situation is unlikely to improve as humanitarian access remains a challenge due to security and the
scattered nature of the population/very low population density. Given the significant increase in GAM
rates in the Nugaal Valley livelihood zone, coupled with the poor performance of Deyr and Gu’ rains, the
resident population, including the IDPs in Nugaal Valley, will continue relying on humanitarian assistance.

In the past 3 months, there has been no increase in the numbers of IDPs in Nugaal. On the contrary, the
numbers have started to decline. This decline has been influenced by the absence of new arrivals and an
increase in the number of IDPS who were provided with durable solutions, and are therefore reintegrated
into the host communities. This trend is likely to continue.

Recently, there has been an increase in sector/cluster coordination in Puntland. These trends are
indicative of the current focus on early recovery. Linked to these developments, WFP have stated that
they will discontinue free food distributions and focus more on an early recovery perspective with an
emphasis on access to food over free food distributions. Moreover, there have been three high profile
assessment missions to Nugaal within the past month. These included the World Bank, Government of
The Netherlands and the European Union. The nature of these assessment missions was to assess
accessibility and the potential for implementing early recovery and development orientated projects. This
trend of donors focusing on early recovery is likely to continue in the near future.

The security situation in Nugaal remains stable; however movements/displacement of Al-Shabab militants
from their previous strongholds in the south could result in their reemergence within Nugaal. The recent
transition from the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to permanent Federal Government of the
Republic of Somalia and associated political developments is likely to lead to stability in the medium to
long term; however, uncertainty will likely continue in the immediate to short term.

Operational Partners

UN presence:
UNHCR, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNDP, WHO, UNPOS, UNOPS, FAO/FSNAU/SWALIM, UNDSS, UNESCO,
UNHABITAT, UNAIDS, ILO, RCO and OCHA

INGOs Presence:
NCA, Vetaid, ADRA, Diakonia, Muslim Aid, Islamic Relief, Mercy Corps, SC UK, Handicap International,
World Vision, Merlin, CARE, CEFA, VSF – Germany, SHSP, MRA, EDC, Relief International, IAS, NCA

Major LNGOs:
KAALO, SWA, SWV, KISIMA, SORDO, TAAKULO, SYSA

Sources:
UNDP population Figure - 2005
Cluster 3 W data for the region (OCHA)

3
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Post Gu’ 2012, August/September 2012.
Local information on Deyr rainfall
UNHCR
FSNAU/FEWS – NET Post GU ’2012

For feedback please contact:

Cecil Dunne dunnec@un.org +252 (0)90 793 816

Mohamed Osman osmanahmedm@un.org +252 (0)90 798 017