IS INDIA A REGIONAL

SUPERPOWER?

A DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS BY
Mukul Verma – P39144
Neeraj Lodhi – P39146
Prakash Pachar – P39153
Sahil Ratra – P39159

1
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction……………………………………………………………3
2. Analysis Approach……………………………………………..……...4
3. Findings and Interpretation…………………………………………..7
4. Conclusion…………………………………………………………….17
5. References…………………………………………………………….18

2
 INTRODUCTION
The aim of this report is to do a statistical analysis to check if India is a regional superpower.
In this section, the terms “region” and “superpower” will be defined and their scope will be
delineated.

Super Power
While the term’s definition is fluid. Wikipedia states that a superpower’s main characteristic
is its mastery in seven dimensions of state power which are:

 Geography
 Population
 Economy
 Resources
 Military
 Diplomacy
 National identity.
In this report, we will deliberate on the top 5 dimensions excluding diplomacy and national
identity. The variables chosen for comparison of different countries will indicate one of these
5 dimensions.

Region
The Indian subcontinent is a southern region and peninsula of Asia, mostly situated on
the Indian Plate and projecting southwards into the Indian Ocean from the Himalayas.
The countries that fall in this region are as follows:

 Bangladesh
 Bhutan
 India
 Maldives
 Nepal
 Pakistan
 Sri Lanka
We will use statistical indicators of the above mentioned countries and compare India with
them.

Time Period
As most of the above mentioned indicators are variable in nature, the same must be studied
over a period of time. In this report, we will study the data of past 5 years and analyze the
same.

3
 ANALYSIS APPROACH
In this section, we define the exact variables to be used to compare the countries over the 5
dimensions and the reasoning on the same why they have been used.

Variables for Geography

 Total Surface Area

 Area under irrigation as percentage of total area
 Forest area as percentage of total area
Total Area: Supply of land resources is fixed. Many naturally occurring resources depend on
supply of land and hence, total land area is a vital statistic to assert a country’s power.

Area under irrigation as percentage of total area: Irrigation helps to grow agricultural
crops thus helping a nation become food secure. Irrigation does not depend much on rainfall
and provides a sustainable way of producing food for a country.
Forested Area as percentage of total area: Forests provide eco-system services to a nation.
The availability of forests contributes to long term sustainability of livelihoods of people of
the country. It also acts as a resource broker for industries.

Variables for Population

 Size of Working Population

 Average years of Schooling
 Life Expectancy at birth

Size of Working Population: There is huge economic growth potential that can result from
shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population
(15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population. The size of working
population indicates huge economic growth potential in future. Size of working population is
taken as compared to percentage of working population to take in account the quantum of
working population.

Average Years of Schooling: This number helps in gauging the intellectual capital of a
country. Intellectual capital helps in boosting innovation as well as increasing economic
growth. Average years of schooling have been taken instead of literacy rate to compare the
quality of literate population also. A person with more years of schooling is more productive
as compared to one with less. If literacy rate was taken as an indicator, this difference would
not have been accounted for.

Life Expectancy at Birth: It is a common indicator to check the health of population. A

healthy population contributes to the nation’s economic growth.

4
Variables for Economy

 GDP (Purchasing Power Parity)

 Real GDP Growth Rate
 Poor people as percentage of total population
GDP (Purchasing Power Parity): GDP comparisons using purchasing power parity(PPP)
are arguably more useful than those using nominal GDP when assessing a nation's domestic
market because PPP takes into account the relative cost of local goods, services and inflation
rates of the country, rather than using international market exchange rates which may distort
the real differences in per capita income.

Real GDP Growth Rate: Real Economic Growth Rate or Real GDP growth rate takes into
account the effects of inflation. Since inflation plays a key role in the GDP of an economy, it
is very important to ascertain the effects of inflation on GDP. As a result, the Real Economic
Growth Rate takes into account the buying power and is inflation-adjusted. This is the reason
it is considered to be a better measure of growth rate than the nominal growth rate. The Real
GDP growth rate will help in measuring if different countries are going to overtake each
other in future or not

Poor people as percentage of total population: Poverty hinders the economic development
of a nation as it has adverse effects on education and health leading to unproductive
population decreasing economic growth. There is also a problem when the economy has a
large base that is poor and a very small group that has all the wealth. This would lead to most
people living on the most basic needs and thus no surplus to innovate or consume more
goods. This in turn lowers the demand and shrinks the economy.

Variables for Resources

 Per Capita Energy Production

 Per Capita Fresh Water Availability
 Per Capita import of Crude Oil

Per Capita Energy Production: It refers to forms of primary energy like crude oil, solid
fuels, primary electricity etc measured in tones of oil equivalents per person. A higher per
capita energy production refers to higher energy availability which in turns help fuelling
industrial growth.

Per Capita Fresh Water Availability: Actual quantities of fresh water available per person.
Decreasing water supply has led to water becoming a constraint in economic development
and growth of a country.

Per Capita Import of Crude Oil: Crude oil is one of the biggest sources of energy
especially in the transportation sector. Import suggests the dependence of a country for its
energy requirements.

5
Variables for Military

 Total number of Military Personnel

 Nuclear Arsenal
 Military Expenditure
Total number of Military Personnel: It indicates the total military strength of a country
which can be used to show dominance over one’s boundaries. The number involves all the
armed forces that are at the disposal of a country.

Nuclear Arsenal: Nuclear weapons provide military hegemony in case the others lack the
same. It is measured by the number of fire able units available with a country.

A composite score in each dimension will be calculated in order to rank the countries in those
categories. If India is able to consistently come on top it can be called a regional superpower.

6
 FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATION

Geography
Land Surface Area:

Land Surface Areas of Countries In Indian

Sub Continent in Sq. km.
3500000.00
2973190.00
3000000.00

2500000.00

2000000.00

1500000.00

1000000.00 881912.00

500000.00
130168.00 38394.00 143351.00 62732.00
300.00
0.00
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

In terms of land surface area, India is a clear winner with an area of 2.97 Million Square
kilometers. Pakistan is at a distant second with land area not even one third of that of India.

Area under irrigation as percentage of total area:

Area Under Irrigation as Percentage of

50.00 Total Land Area
40.72
40.00

30.00
22.43 22.9
20.00
9.29 9.09
10.00
0.83 0
0.00

7
While Bangladesh leads in the percentage of irrigated land, the quanta of benefit can be
measured only when we see the total irrigated land. India has a huge potential in
improvement in this field.

Forest Area as percentage of Total Area:

Forest Area as Percentage of Total

Area
70.00 64.50
60.00
50.00
40.00 29.46
30.00 23.68 24.7
20.00
10.00 6.05 3.56 5.31
0.00

Bhutan leads in the dimension of forest area but Bhutan’s small size makes the whole amount
not so significant. India has a considerable percentage under forests and its size will give it an
added advantage.

Composite Score in Geography: A new variable is chosen to compare the different

countries regarding the geographical aspects of that nation. This variable will give a
composite score which will help in ranking the countries. It will be denoted by ScoreGeo.

Composite Score in Geography

7.00 6.14
6.00 5.4
4.78 4.69
5.00 4.40 4.38
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.03
1.00
0.00

8
As India leads in the composite score, It can be interpreted that India leads in the power
yielded due to one’s Geography.

Population
Size of Working Population:

Working Population in Lakhs

16000
14000 13391.8013

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
1646.6975 1970.1595
2000 293.05
8.0761 4.3633 214.44
0

India has the largest size of working population in the region. It can be a decisive force for
future economic growth given that this population is skilled or literate and enjoy a healthy
life.

Average years of Schooling:

Mean Years of Schooling

8
6.9
7 6.3
6
5.1 4.9
5
3.9
4
3.1
3 2.6

2
1
0
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has the highest average years of Schooling suggesting a better trained and literate
population. Given the huge population of India, India has still maintained a moderate record
in schooling years.

9
Life Expectancy at birth:

Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)

80 78.5
78
76 74.64
74 71.8
72 69.8 69.2
70 67.47
68 65.88
66
64
62
60
58

India has done poorly in the health sector as the life expectancy in India is one of the lowest
in the region.

Composite Score in Population:

A composite score has been generated to gauge the overall demographic dividend available
with different countries on account of their working population, the skill level of the
population and the life expectancy.

Composite Score in Population

7 6.66

6 5.49 5.7
5 5.04
5

4 3.33
3.24
3

0
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Thus, at an overall level, India leads in terms of factors related to population of the country.

10
Economy
GDP Purchasing Power Parity:

Current GDP in 100 Crores USD

7000 6628.12

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
810.87
1000 381.64 195.35
5.88 3.69 68.52
0

In PPP terms, India’s GDP is way ahead of that of other countries in the region suggesting
that it is an economic powerhouse. The growth rate must also be compared to check whether
this gap will widen further or not.

Real GDP Growth Rate:

Real GDP Growth Rate in %

14

12

10
Bangladesh
8
Bhutan
6 India
GDP Growth Rate in %

4 Maldives

2 Nepal
Pakistan
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sri Lanka
-2

-4

-6

India has shown consistent growth rate along the years. As the size of India’s GDP is already
big, it is a good indicator that it is able to maintain a high percentage of growth. It will be

11
easier to compare different countries once both size and growth are studied together. The
same will be done using the composite score.

Poor people as percentage of total population:

Percentage of Population living under

less than 1.9 $ per day
35
29.5
30
25 21.9
20 14.8 15.7 15
15 12
10
5 0.7
0

India faces tremendous pressure of poverty with around 20% of population below poverty
line. While countries like Sri Lanka have done tremendously well.

Composite Score for Economy:

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Bangladesh 7.44 7.47 7.49 7.46 7.45
Bhutan 5.6 5.84 5.7 5.64 5.57
India 8.34 8.68 8.52 8.31 8.28
Maldives 0 5.4 5.4 4.29 5.1
Nepal 6.37 6.39 6.3 6.45 6.28
Pakistan 0 7 7 7.17 7.08
Sri Lanka 8.17 8.51 8.53 8.42 8.46

The above table shows the composite ranking over the last few years. Sri Lanka is giving a
tough fight to India as India takes up second rank 3 times out of last 5 years. The graph is
also shown below.

12
 10
Bangladesh
8 Bhutan

6 India
Maldives
4 Nepal

2 Pakistan
Sri Lanka
0

Resources:
Per Capita Energy Production: The Following graph shows per capita energy production in
oil equivalents. It shows that India is the current leader in the same.

0.00045

0.0004

0.00035 Bangladesh
0.0003 Bhutan
0.00025 India

0.0002 Maldives

0.00015 Nepal
Pakistan
0.0001
Sri Lanka
0.00005

0
1 2 3 4 5

13
Per Capita Fresh Water Availability: The graph below shows availability of renewable
water sources in cubic metres per inhabitant per year.

Water resources: total internal

renewable per capita (m3/inhab/yr)
160000 146431.84
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000 673.11 1094.454 99.902 7170.41 341.73 2603.15
0

The above graph shows that India is a laggard in terms of water supply and it may affect its
future growth aspects.

Per Capita import of Crude Oil:

Barrels Per Day Per Person * 1000

4 3.72
3.5
3 2.51
2.34
2.5
1.93
2 1.56
1.5
0.97
1
0.5 0.16
0

Again India seems to be heavily dependent on crude imports as compared to its neighboring
countries.

Composite Score for Resources: To check India’s composite score in the dimension of
energy resources. We will use the following formula for ease of comparison.

14
 Countries/
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Bangladesh 0.57885575 0.627398 0.646783 0.676533 0.710681

Bhutan 0 0 0 0 0
India 0.10901048 0.11135 0.113468 0.115702 0.122412
Maldives 0 0 0 0 0
Nepal 2.20871415 2.202819 2.204636 2.210203 2.215413
Pakistan 0.06846663 0.06772 0.068988 0.066754 0.067214
Sri Lanka 0.41374997 0.428728 0.417835 0.413352 0.410654

Thus, in Case of energy and water resources, India fares badly and it may need huge external
support to meet its needs in near future.

Military
Total number of Military Personnel:

Military Strength
16,00,000
13,95,100
14,00,000
12,00,000
10,00,000
8,00,000 6,53,800
6,00,000
4,00,000 2,43,000
1,57,050 96,600
2,00,000 0 0
0

Nuclear Arsenal: As only India and Pakistan have Nuclear Warheads, we have mentioned
the number of weapons in the chart below.

Nuclear Warheads

110 India
120 Pakistan

15
Composite Score in Military: The following formula is being used to compare countries.

Composite Score for Military

7
6.14
5.81
6 5.39
5.2 4.98
5

1 0.3 0.3
0
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

This shows India’s supremacy in Military in the region which is one of the most important
factors in power dynamics.

16
 CONCLUSION

Composite Composite
Composite Composite Score in Score in Composite Average
Countries Score in Score in Economy Resources Score in Composite
Geography Population (Latest (Latest Military Score
Year) Year)
Bangladesh 4.78 5.49 7.45 0.71 5.2 4.73
Bhutan 4.4 3.24 5.57 0 0.3 2.7
India 6.14 6.66 8.28 0.12 6.14 5.47
Maldives 1.03 3.33 5.1 0 0.3 1.95
Nepal 4.69 5 6.28 2.22 4.98 4.63
Pakistan 5.4 5.7 7.08 0.07 5.81 4.81
Sri Lanka 4.38 5.04 8.46 0.41 5.39 4.74

As we combine the composite scores that we defined for each dimension of state power, we
find out that India has done considerably good in the dimension of Geography, Population,
Economy and Military but it lacks in resources especially important ones like crude and
water. But on an average, it has shown more promise than any other regional country. This
shows that India exerts power at a regional level and is definitely a regional super-power. If it
is able to reduce its dependence on others in term of energy resources, it can go even further.

17
 REFERENCES
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures#List
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
 https://www.gapminder.org/
 http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP
 https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
 http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/BTN.pdf
 http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Education/Average-years-of-
schooling-of-adults
 https://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/bhutan_statistics.html
 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS?view=chart
 https://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare
 http://www.gwsp.org/library/archive/water-use-amp-economic-growth.html

18
Problem Statement 2:

There is a concern that a better health facilities implies overpopulation, hence the lives of poor
should not be saved by better access to health facilities. How valid is this concern? Please justify
appropriately.

Solution:

The above concern that better health facilities imply overpopulation is not valid and to prove this we will
use statistical technique correlation.

Method of Analysis:

Correlation helps in determining how strongly pairs of variables are related.

The main result of a correlation is called the correlation coefficient (or "r"). It ranges from -1.0 to +1.0.
The closer r is to +1 or -1, the more closely the two variables are related. If r is close to 0, it means there
is no relationship between the variables. If r is positive, it means that as one variable gets larger the
other gets larger. If r is negative it means that as one gets larger, the other gets smaller (often called an
"inverse" correlation). While correlation coefficients are normally reported as r = (a value between -1
and +1), squaring them makes then easier to understand. The square of the coefficient (or r square) is
equal to the percent of the variation in one variable that is related to the variation in the other. After
squaring r, ignore the decimal point. An r of .5 means 25% of the variation is related (.5 squared =.25).
An r value of .7 means 49% of the variance is related (.7 squared = .49).

Data Collection:

We used two types of real world data of two countries, India & USA from gapminder.org. Health
facilities and overpopulation are the two concerns therefore population growth and government health
spending related data has been taken.

 Government health spending per person in US dollar from year 1995 to 2010 for India
 Population Growth rate from year 1995 to 2010 for India
 Government health spending per person in US dollar from year 1995 to 2010
 Population Growth rate from year 1995 to 2010 for India
INDIA

Year Government health

spending per person Population Growth
in US Dollar Rate
1995 4.1 1.92
1996 4.08 1.9
1997 4.61 1.87
1998 4.71 1.84
1999 5.1 1.81
2000 5.08 1.77
2001 4.99 1.73
2002 4.88 1.7
2003 5.39 1.66
2004 6.01 1.62
2005 7.32 1.58
2006 8.21 1.55
2007 10.4 1.51
2008 11.9 1.47
2009 13.4 1.42
2010 15.8 1.37

INDIA

Correlation coefficient: -0.9094

2.5

2
Population Growth

1.5

1
Series1
0.5

0
0 5 10 15 20
Goverment health spending per person in US Dollar
USA

Government health
spending per person in
US Dollar Population Growth Rate

1680 1.19

1750 1.16

1810 1.2

1840 1.17

1920 1.15

2030 1.11

2230 0.99

2410 0.928

2610 0.859

2790 0.925

2950 0.922

3170 0.964

3360 0.951

3550 0.946

3800 0.877

4440 0.833
USA

Correlation coefficient: --0.8405

1.4

1.2
Chart Title
Population Growth Rate

0.8

0.6
Series1
0.4

0.2

0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Government health spending per person in US Dollar

Analysis and Conclusion:

Tool used:

MS Excel

Graph type used:

Scattered plot.

Correlation coefficient:

Country Magnitude Sign

INDIA 0.9094 negative

USA 0.8405 negative

Then finding the correlation using EXCEL and plotting the scatter plot we found that the correlation
comes out to be negative for both the countries.

So it clearly shows that with increase in health expenditure the population growth rate decreases. Since
one variable (health expenditure) is increasing and other variable (population growth rate) is decreasing
and our concern that a better health facility implies overpopulation stands invalid.
Question No. 3 –
Introduction
We were asked to analyse data of the last five year PRM participants and observe the
various trends which it depicts.

Approach
Our analysis consists of variables like Gender, Age, Domicile, Discipline of graduation and
number of months of work experience. Two of them were numerical variables (age, work
experience in months) and rest were nominal variables (gender, domicile and discipline).
We used percentage analysis as the batch size was not uniform over the years. We worked on
parameters like Sex Ratio, percentage of students coming from various disciplines,
percentage of students coming from different states, work experience lying in various
intervals, mean age and etc. We sorted data using Pivot Table and plotted the various
parameters on Time Series graph to observe the trend.

1. Gender Analysis

To analyze this male and female category data we have calculated male to female
ratio percentage.

Gender Analysis

80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
PRM 35 PRM 36 PRM 37 PRM 38 PRM 39

Male % Female %

We can see from the graph that the participation from females is considerably lower than
that of the males. In order to improve this, IRMA may need to include gender diversity
factor in its admission process.
Sex ratio: It is the ratio of number of female to number of male.

SEX RATIO
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
PRM 35 PRM 36 PRM 37 PRM 38 PRM 39

Gender PRM 35 PRM 36 PRM 37 PRM 38 PRM 39

Male % 68.72 75.98 73.08 66.67 69.04
Female
% 31.28 24.02 26.92 33.33 30.96
Sex
ratio 45.52 31.62 36.84 50 44.85

Sex ratio is lingering between 30 to 50 for the last five years which re-inforce the fact that
IRMA should consider gender diversification in its admission process.

2. Age of the students

Age has been calculated as the date of birth minus the date of joining of the course that
is 02-07-Year of Joining. And then applying YEARFRAC formula.

Mean

24.4
24.2
24
23.8
23.6
23.4
23.2
23
22.8
PRM 35 PRM 36 PRM 37 PRM 38 PRM 39
Mean age across last 5 years ranged between 23 and 24. After a sharp dip in the mean for
PRM 38, it has again risen back for the PRM 39. . By observing mean age of batches we
come to know that PRM 37 has the students of higher age than other batches.

3. Discipline of graduation

80.00%
70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00% 35
30.00% 36
20.00%
37
10.00%
38
0.00%
39

Most of the students who joined IRMA in the last 5 years were pre-dominantly engineers.
The consistent high number of engineers show a lack of diversity in the batch and IRMA
should consider including academic diversity factor in their admission process.

4. Domicile

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%
35
36
10.00%
37

5.00% 38
39

0.00%
Most of the students in IRMA come from the state of Gujarat with significant number also comimg
from Kerala and Uttarakhand. In PRM 39, this trend has again been replicated with around 18% of
the batch coming from Gujarat.

5. Work ex
Consolidated Work experience of all the batches.

160

140

120
35
100
36
80 37

60 38
39
40

20

0
0-11 12-23 24-35 36-47 48-59 60-71 72-83 120-131

Most of the students in IRMA are freshers or have relatively less work experience (less than 1 year)

Mean Work-ex
14

12
Average
10 of WORK
EXP. (in
8 PRM months)
6 35 9.293839
36 10.34637
4 37 12.1978
2 38 8.887006
39 11.42678
0
35 36 37 38 39

The average work experience of students in last 5 years has remained somewhat stagnant between
9 to 12 months.
Work experience among different batches
2014-2016

PRM 35

0-11 months 12-23 24-35 36-47 48-59

2015-2017

PRM 36

0-11 months 12-23 24-35 36-47 48-59 60-71

2016-2018

PRM 37

0-11 months 12-23 24-35 36-47 48-59 60-71 72-83

2017-2019

PRM 38

0-11 months 12-23 24-35 36-47 48-59 60-71

2018-2020

PRM 39

0-11 months 12-23 24-35 36-47

48-59 60-71 72-83 120-131

Conclusion:

From the data we can interpret that even after the batch size increased by 60 in PRM 39, the sex
ratio and other parameters like average experience has been maintained. Though, over the years,
the number of students from dairy, agriculture and related fields have come down immensely.
IRMA must take some necessary actions to increase students from such a background in order to
improve overall diversity which will in-turn improve the outcomes of the batch by including new
ideas and creative inputs.