VOTERS’ VIEWS TOWARD JUSTICE KAVANAUGH,

#METOO, AND THE SUPREME COURT

Results from a PerryUndem Survey of 1,000 Registered Voters using YouGov’s Online Panel

September 27, 2019

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 For the past few years, PerryUndem has studied the effects of major
cultural moments related to gender and equity.

In December 2016, we conducted a comprehensive survey on voters’

views related gender equity, including an analysis of how the Access
Hollywood tape and President Trump winning the election affected
voters.

A year later, in November 2017, the country was digesting the first wave
INTRODUCTION. of #MeToo stories. PerryUndem fielded another survey to explore the
initial effects of #MeToo and to measure changes in opinion since
December 2016. To our surprise, much had changed in just one year.

In 2018, another historic cultural event related to gender occurred – the

Supreme Court confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh in the face of allegations
of sexual assault. Once again, we explored the effects on public opinion
in a survey of voters conducted in December 2018.

As we near the anniversary of Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation, we

wanted to assess where voters are now – one year later – on their
perceptions of Justice Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court, and the #MeToo
movement. This memo presents results.

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 This memo presents data from a PerryUndem survey conducted
among n = 1,000 registered voters September 17 through 19, 2019,
using YouGov’s online panel. The margin of sampling error is + 3.4
percentage points. Margins of error for subgroups are larger.

Data from the following surveys are also cited:

• A PerryUndem survey conducted among n = 1,319 registered

voters from December 14 through 28, 2018, using KnowledgePanel
from Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin of sampling error is + 3.1
METHODS. percentage points.

• A PerryUndem survey of n = 1,058 registered voters conducted

November 24 through 28, 2017, using SSRS’ online panel. The
margin of sampling error is + 4.0 percentage points.

• A PerryUndem survey of n = 1,912 likely 2020 voters conducted

July 3 through 14, 2019, using YouGov’s online panel. The margin
of sampling error is + 3.1 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, there are many sources of possible total

survey error. As with any survey, the data here reflect respondents’
views in a snapshot in time.

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 1. One year after his confirmation, data suggest that negative impressions toward
Justice Kavanaugh remain unchanged. Last December, nearly half of voters (49%)
said they had an unfavorable view of Justice Kavanaugh. Virtually the same
proportion (47%) has a negative view today.

2. That said, data suggest some Republican voters who were on the fence last
December have moved toward feeling favorably of Kavanaugh. In our December
2018 survey, 60% of Republican voters were favorable toward Kavanaugh; 16%
were unfavorable, and 23% were unsure. In this survey, 81% are favorable; 9% are
unfavorable; and 10% are unsure.

3. About six in ten voters (59%) think it is likely that Justice Kavanaugh lied under
TOP 10 INSIGHTS. oath about his teenage years – essentially the same proportion who thought so last
December (57%).

4. About one in three voters (35%) thinks Justice Kavanaugh will be impartial in
cases, whereas close to half (47%) thinks the justice will be swayed by his personal
political beliefs.

5. Six in ten respondents (60%) say they would support an investigation into all of the
sexual harassment or assault allegations of Kavanaugh; 39% oppose.

6. In recent focus groups, we have heard many voters – across the political spectrum
– organically talk about too many “white men” in positions of power. In this survey,
half of voters (49%) agrees with the statement: “One reason Justice Kavanaugh
was confirmed is because white men want to hold onto their power in
government.” This sentiment is not one we think we would have heard a few years
ago.

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7. Data suggest that views toward the #MeToo movement have remained stable
over the past year.

8. However, we continue to see evidence that Republicans are moving away from
believing women in sexual harassment and assault allegations. We have seen
very large shifts among Republicans – men especially – moving toward
believing the man in allegations. In November 2017, 80% of Republican men in
our survey said they tend to believe women over men in these cases. A year
later, in December 2018, that proportion dropped to 59%. In this survey, we
find just 37% of Republican men say they are likely to believe women. This is
the first time we find a majority of Republican men (55%) say they are more
likely to believe the man than the woman in these cases.

9. Four in ten respondents (40%) say the confirmation of Kavanaugh made them
feel more negatively toward the Supreme Court. Three in ten (31%) say the
confirmation made them see the Court more positively. These differences tend
to be split by party affiliation. Among independents, 42% say Kavanaugh’s
confirmation made them feel more negatively toward the Court v. 24% who felt
more positively.

10. Nearly six in ten respondents (58%) have a favorable impression of the
Supreme Court. Voters have slightly more trust and confidence in the judicial
branch of government than in the executive or legislative branches.
Nevertheless, about two-thirds of respondents (65%) lean toward term limits
for justices rather than continued lifetime appointments.

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DETAILED RESULTS.

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VIEWS TOWARD JUSTICE KAVANAUGH.

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 Republicans have become more favorable toward Kavanaugh,
while Democrats and independents remain unchanged.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Supreme

Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh?

Dec. 2018 Sept. 2019

+ 20
+ 23

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59% of respondents say it How likely do you think it is that Justice Kavanaugh lied under
oath in any of his testimony about his teenage years?
is likely that Justice
Kavanaugh lied under oath
about his teenage years.
We do not see a statistically
significant change since 2018.

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 How likely do you think it is that Justice
Kavanaugh lied under oath in any of his testimony
about his teenage years?

% Likely

Majorities of Democrats and

independents believe it’s likely
Kavanaugh lied under oath.

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Close to half of respondents When Justice Kavanaugh hears cases before the
Supreme Court, do you think he will be impartial, or
thinks Justice Kavanaugh will he be swayed by...
will be swayed by his own
political beliefs rather than
be impartial in cases before
the Supreme Court.

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 When Justice Kavanaugh hears cases before the Supreme
Court, do you think he will be impartial, or will he be swayed
by his own political beliefs?

Republicans are most

likely to think Kavanaugh
will be impartial.

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 Did the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme
Court make you feel more positive or negative toward the
Supreme Court?

Four in ten respondents

say Kavanaugh’s
confirmation made them
feel more negatively
toward the Court.
Three in ten say the confirmation made
them feel more positively.

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 Did the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme
Court make you feel more positive or negative toward the
Supreme Court?

Most segments are more

likely to say the Kavanaugh
confirmation made them
feel more negatively than
positively toward the Court.

Republicans and voters 65 and older

are exceptions.

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 One reason Justice Kavanaugh was confirmed is because
white men want to hold onto their power in government.

Perceptions of power.
In recent focus groups, we hear many voters –
across gender and the political spectrum –
organically talk about “too many white men” in
positions of power.

Half of voters in December 2018 said the

Kavanaugh events made them think about men
having more power than women in government.
This outcome – thinking about gender
imbalances in power – predicted voting for
Democratic candidates in the 2018 midterms.

In this survey, nearly half of respondents (49%)

agrees that one reason Kavanaugh was
confirmed is because “white men want to hold
onto their power in government.”

Interestingly, half of independent men in the

survey (49%) agrees with this statement.

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 Justice's Kavanaugh's confirmation makes me
wish there were more women elected to political
office.

Half of respondents agrees

that Kavanaugh’s confirmation
makes them wish there were
more women elected to office.
Eight in ten Democratic respondents agree,
as does around half of independent women
and men.

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 If you had to choose, which do you believe most: the
accusation of sexual assault made by Dr. Blasey Ford or
the denial made by Judge Brett Kavanaugh?

Voters are still more

likely to believe Ford
over Kavanaugh.

Intro to question: As you may know, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford had accused Judge Brett Kavanaugh
of sexually assaulting her in high school. Judge Kavanaugh had denied this accusation.

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Republicans, anti-abortion
voters, and respondents 65
and older are the only
segments more likely to
believe Kavanaugh over Ford.

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 If Christine Blasey Ford was a victim of sexual
assault, she should have been able to remember
the details better.

Republicans agree that Ford

should have been able to
remember the details better.

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 As you may know, Dr. Ford is not the only person who has made
allegations of sexual harassment or assault against Justice
Kavanaugh. Would you support or oppose an investigation into
all the sexual harassment and assault allegations made against
Justice Kavanaugh, or not?

60% of respondents say

they support an
investigation into all of the
sexual harassment and
assault allegations made
against Kavanaugh.
With the exception of Republicans,
majorities across segments support an
investigation.

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VIEWS TOWARD #METOO, POWER, AND GENDER.

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Views toward the #MeToo Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the
#MeToo movement against sexual harassment?
movement remain unchanged
over the past year.

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However, Republicans continue to move toward believing men’s denials
over women’s allegations in cases of sexual harassment and assault.

In general, who are you more likely to believe: women making allegations of sexual
harassment or assault, or men who deny these allegations?

% Believe women

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In general, who are you more likely to believe: women making allegations of sexual
harassment or assault, or men who deny these allegations?

% Believe men

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 Sexual assault is more about power than it is
about sex.

Majorities of voters
perceive sexual assault as
more about power than
about sex.

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 Many women who are victims of sexual assault
would not have been victims if they had been
more careful.

Most respondents
disagree with a statement
that places some fault on
sexual assault victims.
Republicans are more likely than
others to agree with the sentiment.

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VIEWS TOWARD THE SUPREME COURT.

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 As you know, our federal government is made up of three
branches of government. How much trust and confidence do
you have at this time in…

Voters have more trust in

the judicial branch than
in the other two
branches of government.
Interestingly, respondents are
slightly more likely to have “a great
deal” of trust in the executive
branch than the judicial branch.
These respondents tend to be
Republicans (see next page).

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% “Great deal of” trust and confidence in

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 Trust and confidence in the judicial branch.

Republicans are most likely to have

trust in the court system; Black
voters are least likely.

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Small majorities of respondents have favorable impressions of the
Supreme Court and Justice Bader Ginsburg.

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of:

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 Which comes closest to your view:

There should
continue to be
lifetime
About two-thirds lean appointments for
Supreme Court
toward term limits for justices (34)

Supreme Court justices. There should

be term limits
on the number
of years a
Supreme
Court justice is
on the court
(65)

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Majorities across
segments lean toward
wanting term limits for
Supreme Court justices.

The exception is Republican men.

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 How likely do you think it is that the Supreme Court will
rule to overturn Roe v. Wade in the near future?
(Roe v. Wade is the decision that established a woman’s constitutional
right to have an abortion). (n = 503)

Voters think it’s not likely

the Court will overturn Roe
– but not unlikely, either.
Republicans are most likely to think the
Supreme Court will not rule to overturn
Roe.

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 How likely do you think it is that Justice Kavanaugh
would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Voters are more likely to

think Justice Kavanaugh
would vote to overturn Roe.

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 For you personally, how important is the next Supreme Court
justice(s) when it comes to deciding who to vote for in the 2020
presidential elections?

Most voters say the next

Supreme Court justices are
important considerations
in their vote for president
in 2020.

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 Importance of next Supreme Court justice(s)
in 2020 presidential vote

Republicans and Democratic

men are most likely to say
SCOTUS justices are “extremely
important” in their vote.

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