Mutually exclusive events

The events having no common elements are called ME

Let A = {1, 3, 5}

B = {2, 4, 6}

A∩B=Φ={}

P (A ∩ B) =0

NOT ME

The events having common outcomes or elements are called NOT ME

Let A = {1, 2, 4, 5}

B = {2, 4, 6}

A ∩ B = {2, 4}

P (A ∩ B) = 2

P (A ∩ B) + 0

Equally like event

The events having same probability of occurrence are called equally like events

E.g. In a balanced coin head and tail

(p)=(t) = 50%

Note balanced =fair =unbiased all sides of fair dice

NOT equally likely events

The events having not same probability of occurrence are called not equally like events

e.g All sides of match- box

Prior /classical/mathematical probability

It a random experiment consist of n(s) mutually exclusive, equally like outcomes ,from which

n(A) outcomes are favorable to event A ,Then probability of A.

𝒏(𝑨)
P (A) =𝒏(𝑺)
Axioms of probability

1 P(A) ≥0
2 0≤P(A) ≤1
3 P(S)=1
4 P(A𝑼B) = P(A) + P (B)

If A and B are mutually exclusive results

E.g. in throw of a single dice find the probability of number > 2

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

N(s) = 6

Let A~ number greater than 2

A = {3,4,5,6 }

N (A) = 4

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟒 𝟐
P (A) =𝒏(𝑺) =𝟔=𝟑

E.g. fined the probability of same numbers in a throw of two dice

S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

S2= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} n(S) = 36

A = { (1,1), ( 2,2 ) , (3,3) , (4,4),(5,5),(6,6) }

N(A) =6

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟔 𝟏
P (A) =𝒏(𝑺) =𝟑𝟔 =𝟔

Prove that in throw of two dices the probability of sum is less than 7 is equal to sum greater than 7
,also find sum eqial to 7

Let A event sum <7

A= { (1,1),(1,2) ,(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(3,1),(3.2).(3,3),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(5,1)}
𝟓
N(A) = 15 P(A)=
𝟏𝟐

Let B event sum > 7

B={ (2,6),(3,5) ,(3,6),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,2).(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}

 𝟓
N(B)=15 P(B)= 𝟏𝟐

Let C event equal to 7

C= {(1,6 ,(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
𝟏
N(C)=6 P(C)=
𝟔

P(A)= P(B)
𝟓 𝟓
=
𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐

Hence proved

Example no 2.24

S= { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }

S= {HH,HT, TH,TT}

N(S)=4

A= {HH,HT,TH }

N(A)= 3

𝒏(𝑨)
P(A)= 𝒏(𝑺)

𝟑
=𝟒

Example no 2.25

S= {1,2,3,4,5,6 }

Let W denotes the outcomes

S= {W,2W ,W,2W,W,2W }

P(S) = 1

9W = 1
𝟏
W= 𝟗

𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟐
S = {𝟗 , 𝟗 , 𝟗 , 𝟗 , 𝟗 , 𝟗 }

Let E ~no less than ‘4

 E= {1, 2, 3}
𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟒
P (E) = 𝟗
+ 𝟗
+ 𝟗
=𝟗

Example no 2.26

Let A → even number

A = {2, 4, 6}

Let B divisible by 3

B = {3, 6}

A 𝑼 B = {2, 3, 4, 6}

A ∩ B = { 6}

𝟏 𝟐 𝟐 𝟔 𝟐
P(A) = + + = =
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟑

𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟏
P(B) = 𝟗 + 𝟗
=𝟗 =𝟑

𝟐 𝟏 𝟐 𝟐 𝟕
P(A 𝑼 B ) = + + + =
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗

𝟐
P( A ∩ B ) = 𝟗

Permutation

The arrangement of objects with same order is called permutation

n 𝒏!
Pr =
(𝒏−𝒓)!

Where

n = total objects

r = selected objects

e.g 1, 2, 3

n= 3 and r=2
𝟑! 𝟔
n
Pr = 3P2 = (𝟑−𝟐)! = =6
𝟏!

Combination
The selection of objects without any order is called combination

n 𝒏!
Cr =
𝒓!(𝒏−𝒓)!

A,B,C

n=3 r =2

𝟑!
3
C2 = 𝟐!(𝟑−𝟐)!
= 6/2 = 3

Example no 2.27

Statistical class 53

Industrial =25 mechanical = 10 electrical = 10 civil = 8

N(s) = 53C1 = 53

(a) Let A ~ Industrial engineer

N(A) =25C1 = 25
𝒏(𝑨) 𝟐𝟓
P(A) =
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝟓𝟑

(b) Let A ~ civil engineer

n(A) =8C1 = 8

(c) Let B ~ elctrical engineer

N(B) = 10C1 = 10

P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B)

𝟖 𝟏𝟎
= 𝟓𝟑 + 𝟓𝟑

𝟏𝟖
= 𝟓𝟑

Example no 2.28

Total cards = 52

Ace = 4 Jake = 4 Other = 44

Let A ~ ace cards

Let B ~ jack cards

n(A ∩ B ) =(4C2)( 4C3)( 44C0)

=(4C2)( 4C3)

= (6)(4 )

= 24
n(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( A ∩ B ) = 𝒏(𝒔)

𝟐𝟒
= 𝟐𝟓𝟗𝟖𝟗𝟔𝟎

= 9.2344 ×10-6

= 0.0000092344

Example no 49

a)
X P(X)
O 0.19
1 0.38
2 0.29
3 0.15
∑ 𝑷(𝑿) = 𝟏. 𝟎𝟏
Sum of all possibilities must be equal to (1)
b) Let A ~ Rain
P(A) = 0.40
Let A ~ 𝑁𝑜𝑡 Rain
̅ ) = 0.52
P(𝑨

̅ ) = 0.40 + 0.52
P(A) + P(𝑨

= 0.92

Sum of all probabilities must be equal to 1

Addition Law for mutually exclusive events

Statement

If A and B be the two mutually exclusive events

P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B)

Addition Law for not mutually exclusive events

Statement

If A and B be not two mutually exclusive events

P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

Complement of events

Statement

If probability of an event P(A) then its complement

̅ ) = 1- P(A)
P(𝑨

Example no 2.53

Let A ~ industry in shanghi

P(A) = O.7

Let B ~ Industry in Beinjing

P(B) = 0.4

P(A 𝑼 B ) = 0.8

P( A ∩ B ) = ?

P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

0.8 = 0.7 + 0.4 - P( A ∩ B )

P( A ∩ B ) + 0.8 = 1.1

P( A ∩ B ) = 1.1 – 0.8

P( A ∩ B ) = 0.3

P(𝑨̅ ∩ 𝑩
̅ ) = 1 - P(A 𝑼 B )

= 1- 0.8

= 0.2

Example no 2.54
Let A ~ tax – free funds

P(A) = 0.6

Let B ~ mutual funds

P(B) = 0.3

a P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

=0.6 +0.3 -0.15

= 0.75

B P(𝑨̅ ∩ 𝑩
̅ ) = 1 - P(A 𝑼 B )

= 1- 0.75

=0.25

Example no 2.54

Let A ~ 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑏𝑟𝑎𝑘 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚

P(A) = 0.25

Let B ~ 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑠𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛

P(B) = 0.18

Let C ~ 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑢𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑦𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑚

P(C) = 0.17

Let D ~ 𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎

P(D) = 0.40

a ) P( A ∩ C ) = 0.15

P( A 𝑼 C ) = ?

P( A 𝑼 C ) = P(A) + P(C) - P( A ∩ C )

= 0.25 + 0.17 - 0.15

= 0.42 - 0.15
 = 0.27

b) P(𝐴̅𝑈𝐶̅) = 1- P( A ∩ C )

= 1- 0.15

= 0.85

Example no 2. 58

S 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3 ) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2.1) (2,2) (2,3) ( 2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

a) N(S) = 36

Let A~ sum in 8

A = { (2,6), (4,4), (5,3), (3,5), (6,2) }

N(A) = 5

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟓
P(A) =
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝟑𝟔

Let B ~ let B sum of almost

B = { (1,1),(1,2) ,(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,1),(3.2),(4,1)}

N(B) = 10

𝒏(𝑩) 𝟏𝟎 𝟓
P(B) =
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝟑𝟔 = 𝟏𝟖

Example no 2. 59

Total cards = 52

Ace = 4 selected cards = 5 other = 48

a) Let A ~ ace cards

 N(A) =(4C3)( 48C2)

= (4) (1128)

= 4512

𝒏(𝑨) 𝟒𝟓𝟏𝟐
P(A) =
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝟐𝟓𝟗𝟖𝟗𝟔𝟎 = 0.00173

b) Heart cards = 13 club cards = 13 other = 20

Selected card = 5

N(S) = ( 52C5 )

=2598960

Let H ~ heart cards

Let C ~ club cards

n(H ∩ C ) =(13C4)( 13C1)( 26C0)

= (715)(13)(1)

= 9295

n(𝑯 ∩ 𝑪 )
P(H ∩ C ) = 𝒏(𝑺)

𝟗𝟐𝟗𝟓
= = 0.00357
𝟐𝟓𝟗𝟖𝟗𝟔𝟎

Example no 2.60

Total book = 9

Noval = 5 POEMS = 3 dictionary = 1

Selected booke = 3

N(S) = ( 9C3 )

= 84

a) Let A ~ dictionary

n(A ) =(1C1)( 8C2)

= (1)(28)
 = 28

𝒏(𝑨)
P(A) =
𝒏(𝑺)

𝟐𝟖
=
𝟖𝟒

𝟏
=
𝟑

Let N ~ N novel and P~ poems

n(N ∩ P ) =(5C2)( 3C1)( 1C0)

= (10)(3)

= 30

n(𝑵∩ 𝑷 )
P(N ∩ B ) = 𝒏(𝑺)

30
= = 0.357
𝟖𝟒

Conditional probability

The probability of event A when event B has already occurred is called conditional probability

Such that

𝑨 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( ) =
𝑩 𝑷(𝑩)
; P(B) ≠0

𝑩 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( ) =
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)
; P(A) ≠0

In toss of four coins find the probability of exactly three heads out of at least one heads

S HH HT TH TT
HH HHHH HHHT HHTH HHTT
HT HTHH HTHT HTTH HTTT
TH T HHH THHT THTH THTT
TT TTHH TTHT TTTH TTTT
N(S) = 16

LET A ~ exactly three head

A = { HHHT , HHTH , HTHH, THHH }

N(A) = 4
 𝒏(𝑨)
P(A) =
𝒏(𝑺)

𝟒 𝟏
= =
𝟏𝟔 𝟒

Let B ~ at least one head

B = { HHHH,HHHT,HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT,HTTH,HTTT,THTT, THHH, TTHH, THHT,THTH,TTTH }

N(B) = 15

𝒏(𝑩) 𝟏𝟓
P(B) =
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝟏𝟔

( A ∩ B )= { HHHT , HHTH , HTHH, THHH }

N( A ∩ B ) = 4

n(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( A ∩ B ) = 𝒏(𝑺)

𝟒 𝟏
= 𝟏𝟔 =𝟒

𝑨 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( ) =
𝑩 𝑷(𝑩)

𝟏/𝟒
=
𝟏𝟓/𝟏𝟔

𝟒
=
𝟓

Table 2.1

A ̅
𝑨 Total
Employed Unemployed
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
Let

A employed

̅
𝑨 unemployed

B Male

̅
𝑩 Female

𝑩 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P( ) =
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)
 n(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
𝒏(𝑺)
= 𝒏(𝑨)
𝒏(𝑺)

n(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
= 𝒏(𝑨)

= 460/600

= 23/ 30

Example no 2.34

P(D) = 0.83

P(A) = 0.82

P (𝑫 ∩ 𝑨 )= 0.78

𝑨 P(𝑫 ∩ 𝑨 ) 𝑫 P(𝑫 ∩ 𝑨 )
P( ) =
𝑫 𝑷(𝑫)
; P( )=
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)

= 0.78 / 0.83 ; = 0.78 / 0.82

= 0.94 ; = 0.94

Exercise

2.74 n(S) = 50

Junior = 3 senior = 30 graduate = 10

Let A ~ student with grade A

N(A) = 18

P(A) = 18 / 50

Let B ~ Grade A having senior

N(B) = 10

P(B) = 10 / 50

N (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= 10

P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩)= 10 / 50
 𝑩 𝟏𝟎/𝟓𝟎
P( ) = = 5/9
𝑨 𝟏𝟖/𝟓𝟎

2.75
N(S) = 200

a) Let A ~ male and secondary

N(A) = 28
Let B ~ SECONDRY
N(B) = 78
N (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= 28
𝑩
P ( ) = 28 / 78
𝑨
b) Let W ~ not college
N (W) = 95
Let f ~ female
N(f) = 112

N (𝒘 ∩ 𝒇 )= 112
𝒘
P( ) = 95 / 112
𝒇
EXAMPLE NO 2.76
TOTAL = 180
NON-SMOKER MODRATE SMOKER HEAVY SMOKER TOTAL
H 21 36 30 87
N-H 48 26 19 93
TOTAL 69 62 49
a) Let H ~ hypertention
N (H) = 87
LET S~ Heavy smoker
N(S) = 49
N (𝑯 ∩ 𝑺 )= 30
𝑯
P( ) = 30 / 49
𝑺
b) LET NH ~ NON smoker
N(NH) = 69
Let E ~ non – hypertension
N(E) = 93
N (𝑵𝑯 ∩ 𝑬)= 48

𝑵𝑯
P( ) = 48 / 93
𝑬
Multiplication Rule of probability
The probability of both events A and B occur is equal to probability of event A multiplied by the
conditional probability of event B occur , when event has already occur is called multiplicative
Rule of probability
 P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= P (A). P (B / A)
or P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= P (B). P (A / B)

Example no 2.80

Let A ~ need of oil

P (A) = 0.25

Let B ~ need of oil filter

P (B) = 0.40

P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= 0.14

𝑨 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
a) P( )=
𝑩 𝑷(𝑩)

= 0.14 / 0.40

= 0.35

𝑩 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
B) P( )=
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)

= 0.14 / 0.25

= 0.56

Example no 2.81

Let A~ denotes married man watch T.V

P(A) = 0.4

Let B ~ married woman watch T.V

P (B) = 0.5
𝑩
P ( ) = 0.7
𝑨

a) P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= P (B). P (A / B)

= (0.5)(0.7)

= 0.35

𝑩 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
b) P( )=
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)
= 0.35 / 0.4
 = 0.875

c) P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

= (0.4) + (0.5)- (0.35)

= 0.55

Example no 2.82

Let A~ vote of husband

P(A) = 0.21

Let B ~ vote of wife

P (B) = 0.28

P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )= 0.15

a) P(A 𝑼 B ) = P(A) +P(B) - P( A ∩ B )

= 0.21 + 0.28 – 0.15
= 0.34

𝑩 P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
b) P ( 𝑨 ) = 𝑷(𝑨)

= 0.15 / 0.21

= 0.71

𝑨 ̅ )
P(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩
c) P ( 𝑩̅ ) = ̅)
𝑷(𝑩

̅ ) = P (A) - P (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 )
P (A ∩ 𝑩
= 0.21 – 0.15
= 0.06
̅
P (𝑩) = 1- P (B)
= 1- 0.28
= 0.72
𝑨
P ( ̅ ) = 0.06 / 0.72 = 0.08
𝑩

Bayes Rule
Statement if a sample space S have event BI, B2, B3, ..., K
Such that
P (Bi) ≠ 𝟎 I = 1,2,3,4… K
 And if another event A occurs such that

𝑨
𝑩𝒊 𝒑(𝑩𝒊)𝑷( )
𝑩𝒊
P( ) = 𝑨 𝑨 𝑨
𝑨 𝒑(𝑩𝒊)𝑷( )+𝒑(𝑩𝟐)𝑷( )+ …𝒑(𝑩𝒙)𝑷( ).
𝑩𝒊 𝑩𝟐 𝑩𝒙

Example no 2.109

Let A ~ rooms at Ramada

P (A) = 0.20

Let B ~ rooms at Sheraton

P (B) = 0.50

Let C ~ Lakeview motor lodge

P(C) = 0.30

Let F faulty plumbing

P (F/ A) = 0.05

P (F / B) = 0.04

P (F / C) = 0.08

𝑭 𝑭 𝑭
a) P(F) = 𝑷(𝑨)𝑷( ) + 𝑷(𝑩)𝑷( ) + 𝑷(𝑪)𝑷( )
𝑨 𝑩 𝑪
= (0.20) (0.O5) + (0.50) (0.04) + (0.30) (0.08)
= 0.01 + 0.02 + 0.024
= 0.054

𝑪 P(𝑪 ∩ 𝑭 ) P(𝑪) 𝑷 ( 𝑭/𝑪 )

P( )= =
𝑭 𝑷(𝑭) 𝑷(𝑭)

(𝟎.𝟎𝟖) (𝟎.𝟑𝟎)
=
𝟎.𝟎𝟓𝟒

= 0.024 / 0.054

= 0.44

Example no 2.103

Let B1 ~ detection found guilty

P (B1) = 0.90
Let B2 ~ Improperly guilty

P (B2) = 0.10

Let A ~ innocent

P (A / B1) = 0.01

P(A / B2) = 0.05

𝑨
P (A) = 𝑷(𝑩𝟏)𝑷 (𝑩𝟏) + P (B2) P (A / B2)

= (0.90)(0.01) + (0.10)(0.05)

= 0.009 + 0.005

= 0.014