Problems in Probability/ARUNAVA SIR/8013504271

Some problems on probability

Q1. An integer is chosen at random from the first 100 positive integers.
What is the probability that the number chosen is divisible by 3 or 4 ?
☺. Here the sample space contains n =100 even points.
Let A = event that the integer chosen is divisible by 3.
B =event that the integer chosen is divisible by 4.
m ( A ) =Number of event points favourable to A
=33 (the numbers are 3,6,9,….,99)
m ( B ) =Number of event points favourable to B
=25 (the numbers are 4,8,12,….,100)
n ( AB ) =Number of event points favourable to AB
=8 (the numbers are 12,24,….,96)
Probability that the member chosen is divisible by 3 or 4
P ( A + B=
) P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( AB )
m ( A) m( B) m ( AB )
= + −
n n n
33 25 8
= + −
100 100 100
50 1
= =
100 2
Q2. An integer is chosen at random from the first 100 positive integers.
What is the probability that the number chosen is divisible by 6 or
8 ?
Q3. Show that P ( AB ) ≥ P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 1
☺. Since P ( A + B ) ≤ 1 , − P ( A + B ) ≥ −1 .
∴ P ( A + B= ) P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) gives
P ( AB ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A + B ) ≥ P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 1 .
Q4. Show that the probability that exactly one of the events A and B
occurs is P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 2 P ( AB )
☺. Let C be the event that exactly one of the events A and B occurs.
=
C AB + AB
= ( A − AB ) + ( B − AB )
Taking probability on both sides
) P ( ( A − AB ) + ( B − AB ) )
P ( C= AB AB
= P ( A − AB ) + P ( B − AB )
[ ( A − AB ) and ( B − AB ) are mutually exclusive]
Again A =( A − AB ) + AB
Taking probability on both sides
P( A) = P ( ( A − AB ) + AB )

A B

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= P ( A − AB ) + P ( AB )
[Since ( A − AB ) and AB are mutually exclusive.]
or, P ( A − AB ) = P ( A ) − P ( AB ) ……….(2)
Similarly, P ( B − AB ) = P ( B ) − P ( AB ) ………(3)
Using (2) and (3) in (1) we get,
P ( C ) = P ( A ) − P ( AB ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB )
Q5. Obtain P ( A + B ) , P ( A + B ) , P ( A + B ) in terms of P ( A ) , P ( B ) , P ( AB )
☺. P ( A + B=) P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB )
= 1 − P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB )
Now AB + AB = B where AB and AB are mutually exclusive.
∴ P (=
AB ) P ( B ) − P ( AB )
∴ P ( A + B) =
1 − P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( B ) + P ( AB ) = 1 − P ( A ) + P ( AB )
) P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) and as before,
Again P ( A + B =
P ( AB ) + P ( AB ) =
P ( A)
) P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A) + P ( AB )
∴ P ( A + B=
= 1 − P ( B ) + P ( AB )
Finally, P ( A + B ) = ( )
P AB , by De Morgan’s law
= 1 − P ( AB )
( A) P=
Q6. If A and B are two events such that P= ( B ) 1 , show that
P( A+
= B ) 1, P (=
AB ) 1
☺. P ( A + B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) = 2 − P ( AB )
Now P ( AB ) ≤ 1 , i.e., − P ( AB ) ≥ −1
∴ 2 − P ( AB ) ≥ 1 i.e., P ( A + B ) ≥ 1 .
But P ( A + B ) ≤ 1 . This implies that P ( A + B ) = 1
Again 2 − P ( AB )= P ( A + B )= 1 , ∴ P ( AB ) = 1 .
Q7. Establish the inequalities :
P ( ABC ) ≤ P ( AB ) ≤ P ( A + B ) ≤ P ( A + B + C ) ≤ P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P ( C ) for any
three events A, B, C
☺. We have ABC ⊆ AB , ∴ P ( ABC ) ≤ P ( AB ) …………(1)
Again AB ⊆ A + B , ∴ P ( AB ) ≤ P ( A + B ) ………..(2)
Also A + B ⊆ A + B + C , ∴ P ( A + B ) ≤ P ( A + B + C ) ……….(3)
Finally, P ( A + B + C ) = P ( A + B ) + P ( C ) − P ( A + B ) C 
≤ P ( A + B ) + P ( C ) ,  P ( A + B ) C  ≥ 0

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= P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) + P ( C )
≤ P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P ( C ) …………(4)
 P ( AB ) ≥ 0
From (1), (2), (3) and (4) we get
P ( ABC ) ≤ P ( AB ) ≤ P ( A + B ) ≤ P ( A + B + C ) ≤ P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P ( C )
Q8. Let A and B two events obtained from a random experiment. Show
that max {0, P( A) + P( B) − 1} ≤ P ( A ∩ B ) ≤ min { P ( A ) , P ( B )} ≤ P ( A ∪ B )
≤ min { P ( A ) + P ( B ) ,1}
Q9. Let A and B two events and P ( B ) ≠ 1 , prove that
P ( A) − P ( A ∩ B )
( )
P AB =
1− P ( B)
Hence deduce that (i) P ( A ∩ B ) ≥ P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 1
(
and (ii) P ( A ) > P ( A B ) or P ( A ) < P ( A B ) according as P A B > P ( A ) )
( )
or P A B < P ( A )

( ) (
Q10. If P ( A C ) ≥ P ( B C ) and P A C ≥ P B C , then prove that )
P ( A) ≥ P ( B )
☺. From P ( A C ) ≥ P ( B C ) , we get
P ( AC ) P ( BC )
≥
P (C ) P (C )
∴ P ( AC ) ≥ P ( BC ) …………(1)
since P ( C ) > 0

(
Similarly, from P A C ≥ P B C ) ( ) we get
P ( AC ) P ( BC )
≥
P (C ) P (C )
∴ P ( AC ) ≥ P ( BC ) ………(2)
since P ( C ) > 0
From (1) and (2) we get P ( AC ) + P ( AC ) ≥ P ( BC ) + P ( BC )
or, P ( AC + AC ) ≥ P ( BC + BC ) ……….(3)
since ( AC ) ( AC
= ) A ( CC
= ) A=
(0) 0
and ( BC ) ( BC
= ) B ( CC
= ) B=
(0) 0
Now AC + AC = A ( C + C ) = AS = A and BC + BC = B ( C + C ) = BS = B , S being
the event space. Therefore from (3) we have, P ( A ) ≥ P ( B ) .

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Q11. The events E1 , E2 ,......., En are mutually exclusive and

E = E1 + E2 + ........... + En . Show that if P ( A Ei ) = P ( B Ei ) , i = 1, 2,.........., n , then
P ( A E ) = P ( B E ) . Is the conclusion true even if the events Ei are not
mutually exclusive ?
☺. We have AE = A ( E1 + E2 + .......... + En ) = AE1 + AE2 + ........ + AEn …….(1)
and BE = B ( E1 + E2 + .......... + En ) = BE1 + BE2 + ........ + BEn …….(2)
Here ( AEi ) ( AE=
j) A ( Ei E=
j) 0 0 ; for i ≠ j; i, j =
A= 1, 2,....., n
and ( BEi ) ( BE=
j) B ( Ei E=
j) B=
0 0 ; for i ≠ j; i, j =
1, 2,....., n
since E1 , E2 ,......., En are mutually exclusive events.
This implies that AE1 , AE2 ,............., AEn are pair-wise mutually exclusive
events and BE1 , BE2 ,............., BEn are also pair-wise mutually exclusive events.
P ( AE ) = P ( AE1 + AE2 + ............ + AEn ) , [ by (1) ]
= P ( AE1 ) + P ( AE2 ) + ............ + P ( AEn ) , [ by axiom (iii) ]
= P ( E1 ) P ( A E1 ) + P ( E2 ) P ( A E2 ) + ............ + P ( A En )
= P ( E1 ) P ( B E1 ) + P ( E2 ) P ( B E2 ) + ............ + P ( B En )
= P ( BE1 ) + P ( BE2 ) + ............ + P ( BEn )
= P ( BE1 + BE2 + ............ + BEn ) , [ by axiom (iii) ]
= P ( BE ) , [ by (2) ]
P ( AE ) P ( BE )
∴ P( A E)= = = P(B E)
P(E) P(E)
The above result will not be true if the events Ei are not mutually
exclusive, for, in that case the relation
P ( AE1 + AE2 + ............ + AEn ) = P ( AE1 ) + P ( AE2 ) + ............ + P ( AEn ) will not be
true.
P(B)
Q12. Prove that P ( B A ) ≥ 1 − in general.
P ( A)
☺. We have P ( B ) = 1 − P ( B ) .
Now P ( A + B=
) P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) and 0 ≤ P ( A + B ) ≤ 1 .
∴ 0 ≤ P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) ≤ 1
or, 1 − P ( B ) ≥ P ( A ) − P ( AB )
or, P ( B ) ≥ P ( A ) − P ( AB )
P(B) P ( AB )
Hence ≥ 1− = 1 − P ( B A)
P ( A) P ( A)
P(B)
or, P ( B A ) ≥ 1 −
P ( A)

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Q13. Show that if one of the following condition holds then the remaining
are hold.
(i) A and B are independent
(ii) A and B are independent
(iii) A and B are independent
(iv) A and B are independent
☺. If A and B are independent then
P ( AB ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) …………(1)
Now, B + B = S where S is the event space.
A( B + B ) =
AS
or, AB + AB = A [ AS = A ]
Taking probability on both sides we get,
P ( AB + AB ) =
P ( A)
P ( AB ) + P ( AB ) − P ( ABB ) =
P ( A)
Since BB = 0 , an impossible event.
∴ ABB is an impossible event and so P ( ABB ) = 0
Therefore P ( AB ) + P ( AB ) =
P ( A)
P (=
AB ) P ( A ) − P ( AB )
= P ( A ) − P ( A ) P ( B ) , [ using (1) ]
= P ( A ) {1 − P ( B )}
= P ( A) P ( B )
∴ A and B are independent ............ (2)
Again A + A = S
so that ( A + A ) B =
SB
or, AB + AB = B [ since SB = B ]
Taking probability on both sides we get,
P ( AB + AB ) =
P ( B)
Since, ( AB ) ( AB=) ( AA )=
B 0=
B 0 , an impossible event
Therefore AB and AB are impossible event and we have
P ( AB ) + P ( AB ) =
P ( B)
P (=
AB ) P ( B ) − P ( AB )
= P ( B ) − P ( A ) P ( B ) , [ using (1) ]
= 1 − P ( A )  P ( B ) = P ( A ) P ( B )
∴ A and B are independent.
Again by De Morgan’s law we have,
AB= A + B
Taking probability on both sides,

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(
P ( AB ) =P A + B =− )
1 P ( A + B)
= 1 − P ( A ) − P ( B ) + P ( AB )
= 1 − P ( A ) − P ( B ) + P ( A ) P ( B ) , [ using (1) ]
= 1 − P ( A )  − P ( B ) 1 − P ( A ) 
= 1 − P ( A )  1 − P ( B ) 
= P ( A) P ( B )
i.e., A and B are independent.
Q14. If A, B are two events where P ( B ) = 1 , then prove that A, B are
independent.
☺. Let A, B be two events such that P ( B ) = 1 .
Since A + B ⊇ B , P ( A + B ) ≥ P ( B ) =
1 …..(1)
Again we know that 0 ≤ P ( A + B ) ≤ 1 …..(2)
Combining (1) and (2) we get P ( A + B ) =
1
Therefore, P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( AB ) =
1
or, P (=
AB ) P= ( A) P ( A) P ( B ) ,  P ( B ) = 1
This shows that the events A, B are independent.
Q15. Consider events A and B such that P ( A ) = , P ( B A ) = ,
1 1
4 2
( )
P ( A B ) = . Find P A B and P ( A B ) + P A B .
1
4
( )
P ( AB )
☺. We have= P=
1
( B A ) = 4 P ( AB ) , ∴ P ( AB ) =
1
2 P ( A) 8
P ( AB )
= P=
Again
1
4
( A B) =
1
P ( B ) 8P ( B )
, ∴ P ( B) =
1
2
1
∴ P ( AB ) = = P ( A ) P ( B ) and this implies that A and B are independent.
8
Thus A, B and also A, B are independent.

Now P ( A ) =1 − = ; P ( B ) =1 − =
1 3 1 1
4 4 2 2
P ( AB ) P ( A ) P ( B )
∴ P A=( B ) =
P(B)
= P=
P(B)
( A)
1
4
P ( AB ) P ( A ) P ( B )
=
and P A(B ) =
P(B) P(B)
= P= ( A)
3
4

(
Finally P ( A B ) + P A B = )
1 1 1
+ =
4 4 2
( X C ) P ( A C ) + P ( B C ) where
Q16. If P ( ABC ) = 0 , then show that P=
X= A + B (Notations as usual).

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P ( XC )
☺.=
We have P ( X C ) ........(1), P ( C ) ≠ 0
P (C )
Now, XC =( A + B ) C =AC + BC
∴ P ( XC ) =P ( AC + BC )
= P ( AC ) + P ( BC ) − P ( ACBC )
= P ( AC ) + P ( BC ) − P ( ABC )
= P ( AC ) + P ( BC ) ..........(2), [ P ( ABC ) =
0]
Using (2) in (1) we have,
P ( AC ) + P ( BC )
P( X C) =
P (C )
P ( AC ) P ( BC )
= +
P (C ) P (C )
= P( A C) + P(B C)
Q17. Let the events A and B be such that A can be partitioned into
three events A1 , A2 , A3 and B can be partitioned into two events
B1 , B2 ; if the events Ai and B j are pair-wise independent for all
possible values of i, j , then prove that A and B are independent.
☺. We have A = A1 + A2 + A3 , Ai Aj = 0 , i ≠ j ( i, j = 1, 2,3) .
and B= B1 + B2 where B1 B2 = 0
Now we have P ( AB=
) P ( A1 + A2 + A3 )( B1 + B2 )
= P ( A1 B1 + A1 B2 + A2 B1 + A2 B2 + A3 B1 + A3 B2 )
where we see that any two events of A1 B1 , A1 B2 , A2 B1 , A2 B2 , A3 B1 , A3 B2 are
mutually exclusive.
∴ P ( AB ) = P ( A1 B1 ) + P ( A1 B2 ) + P ( A2 B1 ) + P ( A2 B2 ) + P ( A3 B1 ) + P ( A3 B2 )
= P ( A1 ) P ( B1 ) + P ( A1 ) P ( B2 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( B2 )
+ P ( A3 ) P ( B1 ) + P ( A3 ) P ( B2 )
since Ai , B j pair-wise independent for every
i, j ( i 1,=
= 2,3; j 1, 2 )
=  P ( A1 ) + P ( A2 ) + P ( A3 )   P ( B1 ) + P ( B2 ) 
= P ( A1 + A2 + A3 ) P ( B1 + B2 )
[ since Ai Aj = 0 for i ≠ j ; B1 B2 = 0 ]
= P ( A ) P ( B ) , which implies that A and B are independent.
Q18. Let A, B, C be mutually independent events. Then prove that A and
B + C are independent and also that A, B , C are mutually independent.
Q19. The probability of n independent events are p1 , p2 ..... pn . Find an
expression for the probability that at least one of the events will
happen.

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Use this result find the chance of obtaining at least one 6 in a

throw of four dice.
☺. Let A1 , A2 ,........., An be n mutually independent events such that
P ( Ai ) = pi , i = 1, 2,............, n
Then we have, P ( Ai ) =
1 − pi , i =
1, 2,......., n
Now, the probability of occurrence of at least one of A1 , A2 ,.........., An is
1 P ( A1 A2 .......... An )
P ( A1 + A2 + .......... + An ) =−
= 1 − P ( A1 ) P ( A2 ) ........P ( An )
= 1 − (1 − p1 )(1 − p2 ) .......... (1 − pn )
1
The probability of obtaining a 6 in throw of a dice is so that using
6
the above result the chance of at least one six in a throw of four dice
 5  6 −5
4 44
671
is given by 1 −   = = = 0.51775
6
4
6 1296
Q20. What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will
contain 53 Sundays ?
☺. In a leap year (which consists of 366 days) there are 52 complete weeks
and two days over. The following are the possible combinations for
these two ‘over’ days:
(i) ‘Sunday and Monday’ (ii) ‘Monday and Tuesday’
(iii) ‘Tuesday and Wednesday’ (iv) ‘Wednesday and Thursday’
(v) ‘Thursday and Friday’ (vi) ‘Friday and Saturday’
(vii) ‘Saturday and Sunday’
In order that a leap year selected at random should contain 53
Sundays, one of the two ‘over’ days must be Sunday. Since out the
above 7 possibilities,2, viz., (i) and (vii), are favourable to this event.
2
Therefore , required probability= .
7
Q21. Two dice are thrown at a time. Find the probability that the sum on
the faces is odd.
☺. One die has six faces numbered 1,2,3,4,5 and 6 and so when two dice
are thrown at a time, its sample space will contain 6 × 6 = 36 sample
points.
If A denotes the events that ‘the sum on the faces is odd’ then the
sample points favourable to A are (1, 2 ) , (1, 4 ) , (1, 6 ) , ( 2,1) , ( 2,3) ,
( 2,5) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3, 6 ) , ( 4,1) , ( 4,3) , ( 4,5) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 5, 4 ) , ( 5, 6 ) , ( 6,1) ,
( 6,3) , ( 6,5) . Thus there are 18 sample points favourable to A .
18 1
= .
Hence the required probability=
36 2
Q22. The integers x and y are chosen at random with replacement from
nine natural numbers 1, 2,3,.........,9 . Find the probability that x 2 − y 2 is
divisible by 2 .

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☺. Since x and y are chosen at random from the integers 1,2,3,………,9

with replacement, so the event space contains 9 × 9 = 81 sample points.
Again, since x and y are both integers, so x − y will be divisible by
2 2

2 if x and y are both even or both odd.

There are 4 even integers and 5 odd integers in the given integers.
So, the possible ways by which both x and y will be even is
4× 4 = 16 and both will be odd is 5 × 5 = 25 .
Thus, number of favourable cases=16+25=41.
41
Hence, the required probability= .
81
Q23. 7 mathematics and 8 physics books are placed at random on a
bookshelf. Find the probability that none of the physics books are
placed consecutively.
☺. 7 mathematics and 8 physics books can be arrange in a bookshelf in
( 7 + 8)! ways i.e., 15 ways i.e., the total number of simple events in
the event space = 15 .
Let A be the event ‘none of the physics books are placed
consecutively.’
The number of simple events favorable to A
= number of ways in which 15 books can be arranged where the 8
physics books are placed in between and at the ends of 7 mathematics
books (i.e., in 8 places) = 8 p8 × 7!
8!× 7!
Hence, the reqd. probability= .
15!
Q24. 8 mathematics and 7 physics books are placed at random on a
bookshelf. Find the probability that none of the physics books are
placed consecutively.
Q25. 7 mathematics and 3 physics books are placed at random on a
bookshelf . Find the probability that none of the physics books are
placed consecutively.
☺. Total number of simple events in the event space = 10 . Let A be the
event ‘none of the physics books are placed consecutively’
The number of simple events favourable to A = number of ways in
which 10 books can be arranged where 3 physics books are placed in
between and at the ends of 7 mathematics books (i.e., in 8 places )
= 8 p3 × 7! .
Assuming that all simple events are equally likely, by classical rule
8
p3 × 7! 7
= =
required probability
10 15
Q26. What is the probability of scoring 10 in a signal throw with 6 dice?
☺. Let S denote the people space and A be the event of ‘scoring 10’
associated with the given experiment.
( )
Clearly n ( S ) = n S16 where S1 = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} i.e., n ( S ) = 66 .
n ( A ) =Number of sample points in A

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(x + x + x + x + x + x )
6
=Co-efficient of x10 in 2 3 4 5 6

in (1 + x + x + x + x + x )
6
=Co-efficient of x 4 2 3 4 5

in (1 − x ) (1 − x )
6 −6
=Co-efficient of x 4 6

=Co-efficient of x 4 (1 − 6 x + ......)(1 + 6 x + ...... + c x

6 5+ r
r
r
+ ...... )
= 5+ 4 =
c4 9
=
c4 126
n ( A ) 126 7
=
Therefore, the required probability = =
n(S ) 6 6
2592
Q27. An urn contains r red and b black balls. Three random drawings
are made; such that the ball drawn is always replaced and in
addition ‘ c ’ balls of the colour drawn are added to the urn. Find
the probability of a run of 3 black balls.
☺. Let Ai denote the event that the ith ball is black (i = 1, 2,3) . The required
event is A1 A2 A3 .
b
Clearly P ( A1 ) = .
r +b
When the first black ball has been drawn, i.e., A1 has occurred,
the urn contains r red and b + c black balls.
b+c
Hence P ( A2 A1 ) =
r +b+c
b + 2c
Similarly, P ( A3 A1 A2 ) = .
r + b + 2c
So the required probability = P ( A1 A2 A3 )
= P ( A1 ) P ( A2 A1 ) P ( A1 A1 A2 )
 b   b + c   b + 2c 
=   
 r + b   r + b + c   r + b + 2c 
b ( b + c )( b + 2c )
=
( r + b )( r + b + c )( r + b + 2c )
Q28. A jar contains two white balls and three black balls. The balls are
drawn from the jar one by one and placed on the table in the
order drawn. What is the probability they are drawn in the order
white, black, black, white, black ?
☺. Let A1 , A2 , A3 , A4 , A5 be the events ‘first ball drawn is white’, ‘second ball
drawn is black’, ‘third ball drawn is black’ , ‘fourth ball is drawn is
white’ and ‘fifth ball drawn is black’ respectively.
, P ( A2 A1 ) ( A3 A1 A2 ) , P ( A4 A1 A2 A3 ) = , P ( A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 ) = 1
2 3 2 1
=P ( A1 ) = , P=
5 4 3 2
Therefore the required probability= P ( A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 )
= P ( A1 ) P ( A2 A1 ) P ( A3 A1 A2 ) P ( A4 A1 A2 A3 ) P ( A5 A1 A2 A3 A4 ) = 0.1
Q29. A jar contains three white and three red balls. The balls are drawn
at random from the jar and placed on a table in the order drawn.

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What is the probability that balls are drawn in the order white,
red, red, white, red, white ?
Q30. A box contains 2 black, 4 white and 3 red balls. One ball is drawn
at random from the box and kept aside. From the remaining balls
in the box, another ball is drawn at random and is kept beside the
first. This process is repeated till all the balls have been drawn
from the box. Find the probability that the balls are drawn in the
sequence of 2 black, 4 white and 3 red.
☺. The probability that a black ball is picked first is 2 , and the probability
9
1
that the other black ball is picked next is . So the probability that the
8
2 1
2 black balls are picked in succession is × .
9 8
The probability that the 4 white balls are drawn in succession is
4 3 2 2 1
× × × × and the probability that 3 red balls are drawn in
7 6 5 5 4
3 2 1
succession is × × .
3 2 1
Therefore, the required probability is
2 1 4 3 2 1 3 2 1 1
× × × × × × × × = .
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1260
Q31. A room has 3 electric lamps. From a collection of 10 electric bulbs,
of which 6 are good, 3 are selected at random and put in the
lamps. Find the probability that the room is lighted.
☺. Let A =the event that ‘the room is lighted’, i.e., at least one of the 3
bulbs chosen at random is good.
So A′ =the event that ‘the room is dark’ i.e., none of the 3 bulbs chosen
at random are good.
If S denotes the sample space, then n ( S ) =10 c3
Also n ( A=
′) 4
=
c3 4
=
c1 4
4 4× 6 1
∴ P ( A′ ) =10 = =
c3 10 × 9 × 8 30
1 29
1 P ( A′ ) =−
Therefore, the reqd. probability is P ( A ) =− 1 = .
30 30
Q32. Consider a class { A, B, C} of events. Suppose it is known that { A, B}
is an independent pair and that { B, C } is an independent pair. Does
it follow that { A, C} is an independent pair? Justify your answer.
☺. { A, B} is an independent pair implies P ( AB ) = P ( A) P ( B )
{B, C} is an independent pair implies P ( BC ) = P ( B ) P ( C )
Here we observe that P ( AB ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) and P ( BC ) = P ( B ) P ( C )
may not imply P ( AC ) = P ( A ) P ( C )
We shall give one example where P ( AB ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) ,

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P ( BC ) = P ( B ) P ( C ) but P ( AC ) ≠ P ( A ) P ( C )
We consider the random experiment of throwing of an unbiased die.
Here the event space S is given by S = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6} , where all simple
events are equally likely.
Let A = {2,3, 4} , B = {2, 6} , C = {2, 4,5}
3 1 2 1 3 1
Here P ( A=
) = , P ( B=
) = , P ( C =) =
6 2 6 3 6 2
Now P= ( AB ) P= ({2}) = 1 11
= P ( A) P ( B )
6 23
P=( BC ) P= ({2}) = 1 11
= P ( B ) P (C )
6 32
So, { A, B} and { B, C} are independent pairs.

) P ({2, 4}=)
2 1
But P ( AC = =
6 3
11 1 1
P ( A) P ( C =
) = ≠
22 4 3
So here P ( AC ) = P ( A ) P ( C )
Hence { A, C} is not an independent pair although { A, B} , {B, C} are
independent pairs.
Q33. ( Match problem): n letters to each of which corresponds an envelope,
Are placed in the envelopes at random. What is the probability that
(i) no letter is placed in the right envelope ?
(ii) exactly r letters are placed in the right envelopes ? ( r ≤ n − 2 )
☺. (i) Let Ai , ( i = 1, 2,........, n ) denote the event that ith letter goes to the
correct envelope. Then the probability that none of the n letters goes to
the correct envelope is P ( A1 A2 .......... An )

(
= P A1 + A2 + .......... + An )
= 1 − P ( A1 + A2 + .......... + An )

= 1 − ∑ P ( Ai ) + ∑ P ( Ai Aj ) − ∑ P( A A A )
n n n

i j k
=i 1 =i, j 1 =i , j ,k 1
i< j i< j <k

+ ........ + ( −1) P ( A1 A2 ....... An )

n

1
Now P ( A
=i) = , i 1, 2,......, n
n
P ( Ai Aj ) P=
( Ai ) P ( Aj Ai )
1 1
= , for i < j; i, j =
1, 2,......, n
n n −1
=P ( Ai Aj Ak ) P= ( Ai ) P ( Aj Ai ) P Ak Ai Aj (
1 1 1
n n −1 n − 2
)for i < j < k ; i, j , k =
1, 2,...., n
…………………………………………………………..
1 1 1 1
P ( A1 A2 ......... An ) =
= ........... .1
n n −1 2 n!
Hence the required probability

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1 1 1 n 1 1 1 n 1
= 1 − n + n c2 − n3 + .......... + ( −1)
n n n −1 n n −1 n − 2 n!
1 1 n 1
= − + ........... + ( −1)
2! 3! n!
( −1)
k
n
=∑
k =2 k!
(ii) Let Ai , ( i = 1, 2,........, n ) denote the event that ith letter goes to the
correct envelope. Then the probability that none of the n letters goes to
( −1)
k
n
the correct envelope is ∑ k!
k =2
………(1)

The probability that each of the ‘ r ’ letters is in the right envelope is

1 1 1 1
......... , and the probability that none of the remaining
n n −1 n − 2 n − r +1
( n − r ) letters goes to the correct envelope is obtained by replacing n
( −1)
k
n−r
by ( n − r ) in (1) and is thus given by
k!
∑
. Hence the probability
k =2
that out of n letters , exactly r letters go to correct envelopes, ( in a
( ) ; r ≤ n−2
k
n − r −1
1 1 1 1
specified order ), is
n n −1 n − 2
......... ∑
n − r + 1 k =2 k !
( )
Since r letters can go to n envelopes in n cr mutually exclusive ways,
the required probability of exactly r letters going to correct envelopes
( )
k
n − r −1
1 1 1 1
n
is = cr
n n −1 n − 2
......... ∑
n − r + 1 k =2 k !
1 n − r ( −1)
k

== ∑
r ! k =2 k !
; k 1, 2,3,........., ( n − 2 )

Q34. A secretary writes four letters and the corresponding addresses on

envelopes. If he inserts the letters in the envelopes at random
irrespective of the addresses, find the probability that only one letter
is placed in the corresponding envelope. Also calculate the
probability that all letters are wrongly placed.
Q35. Four students have identical umbrellas which they keep in some
definite place while attending class. After the class each student
selects an umbrella at random and goes home. What is the
probability that at least one umbrella goes to its original owner ?
☺. Let Ai , ( i = 1, 2,3, 4 ) denote the event that ith umbrella goes to its original
owner. Then the probability that at least one will go to its original
owner is P ( A1 + A2 + A3 + A4 )

= ∑ P ( Ai ) − ∑ P ( Ai Aj ) + ∑ P( A A A )− P( A A A A )
4 4 4

i j k 1 2 3 4
=i 1 =i, j 1 =i , j ,k 1
i< j i< j <k

1
Now P ( A
=i) = , i 1, 2,3, 4
4

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P ( Ai Aj ) = P ( Ai ) P ( Aj Ai ) =
11
, i < j; i, j = 1, 2,3, 4
43
P ( Ai A=
j Ak ) (
P ( Ai ) P ( Aj Ai ) P Ak A= i Aj
111
432
) , i < j < k ; i,=
j , k 1, 2,3, 4
111 1
Similarly, P ( A1 A2 A3 A4 ) = .1 =
432 4!
1 1 4 1 1
Hence, required probability= 4 − 4 c2 + c1 −
4 4.3 4.3.2 4!
1 1 1
=1 − + −
2 6 24
24 − 12 + 4 − 1
=
24
15 5
= =
24 8
Q36. Four persons are chosen at random from a group containing 3 men,
2 women and 4 children. Show that the chance that exactly two of
10
them will be children is
21
☺. Total number of members in the group is 3+2+4=9. From 9 members, 4
persons can be selected in 9 c4 ways. So all numbers of possible cases
is 9 c4 .
Again, since among the four person selected, exactly two of them will
be children, so other two will be selected from 3 men and 2 women
and this can be done in 5 c2 ×4 c2 ways. Thus the number of favourable
cases for this event will be 5
c2 ×4 c2 .
c2 ×4 c2 10 5
Hence, the required probability= 9
=
c4 21
Q37. Four cards are drawn from a full pack of playing cards, find the
probability that there is at least one ace among them.
☺. Total number of cards=52. So 4 cards can be drawn in 52 c4 ways.
If A denotes the event the ‘no ace is drawn’, then four cards must be
drawn from remaining 48 card and it can done in 48 c4 ways. Therefore ,
c4 48 × 47 × 46 × 45
48
P (=
A) = = 0.72
c4 52 × 51× 50 × 49
52

Therefore, the required probability that there is at least one ace among the
four cards drawn is given by P ( A ) =− 1 P ( A ) =−
1 .72 =.28
Q38. Find the probability that a particular bridge player will gets all four
aces.
☺. Total number of playing cards=52 and each bridge player will get 13
cards. So the all number of possible cases by which a player can get
13 cards will be 52 c13 .

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Again, if a particular player gets all the four aces, then he is to get
another 9 cards from the rest 48 cards and number of favourable cases
for that player is 48 c9 .
48
c9
Hence the required probability= . 52
c9
Q39. What is the probability that a particular player will get 7 cards of
the same suit at a game of bridge ?
☺. In a pack of 52 cards, there are four suits, each suit having 13 cards. A
particular player may get his 13 cards is 52 c13 ways. When this
particular player will get 7 cards of a particular suit, then other 6 cards
will come from rest 39 cards and since there are four suits, so this may
happen in 4 ×13 c7 ×39 c6 ways.
4 ×13 c7 ×39 c6
Thus the required probability= 52
c13
Q40. Out of ( 2n + 1) tickets numbered consecutively, three tickets are
drawn at random. Find the probability that the numbers on the
tickets form an arithmetical progression.
☺. From ( 2n + 1) tickets, 3 tickets can be drawn in

( 2n + 1)( 2n )( 2n − 1) n ( 4n − 1)
2
2 n +1
c3 = = ways.
3.2.1 3
To find the favourable number of cases so that the three numbers drawn
will be in A.P., we consider as follows:
We see that common difference d may be 1, 2,3,..........., n − 1, n .
When d = 1 , the possible cases are as follows :
1,2,3 ; 2,3,4 ; 3,4,5 ; …….., 2n − 1, 2n, 2n + 1 i.e., total number of
cases= ( 2n − 1) .
When d = 2 , the possible cases are as follows :
1,3,5 ; 2,4,6 ; 3,5,7 ; ………, 2n − 3, 2n − 1, 2n + 1 i.e., total number of
cases= ( 2n − 3) .
and so on and finally
When d= n − 1 , the possible cases are 1, n, 2n − 1 ; 2, n − 1, 2n ; 3, n + 2, 2n + 1
i.e., total number of cases=3
When d = n , there is only 1 case, namely, 1, n + 1, 2n + 1 .
Therefore, number of favourable cases
n
= ( 2n − 1) + ( 2n − 3) + ........ + 5 + 3 + 1= (1 + 2n − 1=) n2
2
n2 3n
Hence, the required probability= =
(
n 4n 2 − 1 )
4n 2 − 1
3
Q41. There are three persons aged 50 yrs, 60 yrs and 70 yrs old
4
respectively. The probability to live 10 years more is for a 50 yrs
5

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1 1
old , for a 60 yrs old and for a 70 yrs old person. Find the
2 5
probability that at least two of them will survive 10 yrs more.
☺. Let A, B, C denote respectively the events “50 old person will survive 10
years more.” “ 60 yrs old person will survive 10 years more” 70 yrs old
person will survive 10 yrs more”.
Then the event “at least two of them two will survive 10 yrs more” is
expressed by ABC + BCA + CAB + ABC .
Here we can assume that the events A, B, C are mutually independent.
Then the required probability is equal to
P ( ABC + BCA + CAB + ABC ) = P ( ABC ) + P ( BCA ) + P ( CAB ) + P ( ABC )
[ since ABC , BCA, CAB , ABC are mutually exclusive events ]
= P ( A) P ( B ) P ( C ) + P ( B ) P ( C ) P ( A ) + P ( C ) P ( A) P ( B ) + P ( A) P ( B ) P ( C )
[ Since A, B, C are mutually independent.]
4 1 1
It is given that P ( A ) = ,=
P ( B) = , P (C ) .
5 2 5
Then the required probability is equal to
4 1 4 1 1 1 1 4 1 4 1 1
. . + . . + . . + . .
5 2 5 2 5 5 5 5 2 5 2 5
8 1 1 2
= + + +
25 50 25 25
25 1
= =
50 2
Q42. A man seeks advice regarding one of two possible courses of action
from three advisors who gave their recommendation independently.
He follows the recommendation of the majority. The probability of
each individual advisor being wrong are 0.1, 0.05 and 0.05
respectively. What is the probability that the man takes wrong
advice ?
☺. Let the advisors be designated by A1 , A2 and A3 .
Also let Ri =event that Ai gives right advice
and Wi = event that Ai gives wrong advice, i = 1, 2,3 .
P (W1 ) 0.1,
= = P (W2 ) 0.05,
= P (W3 ) 0.05
P ( R1 ) 0.9,
= = P ( R2 ) 0.95,
= P ( R3 ) 0.95
Since the man taking advice, follows recommendations of their majority,
the required probability is
= P ( R1 ∩ W1 ∩ W3 ) + P (W1 ∩ R2 ∩ W3 ) + P (W1 ∩ W2 ∩ R3 ) + P (W1 ∩ W2 ∩ W3 )
= P ( R1 ) P (W2 ) P (W3 ) + P (W1 ) P ( R2 ) P (W3 ) + P (W1 ) P (W2 ) P ( R3 ) + P (W1 ) P (W2 ) P (W3 )
( advisors give recommendations independently.)
=.9 × .05 × .05 + .1× .95 × .05 + .1× .05 × .95 + .1× .05 × .05 =.012
Q43. Two urns contain 3 white, 7 red, 15 black and 10 white, 6 red , 9 black
balls respectively. One ball is drawn from each urn. Find the
probability that both the balls are the same colour.

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☺. Let Wi , Ri and Bi denote respectively, the events of a red and black ball
being drawn from the ith urn ( i = 1, 2 ) .
3 10 7 6 15
So that P (W1 ) = , P (W2 ) = , P ( R1 ) = , P ( R2 ) = , P ( B1 ) = ,
25 25 25 25 25
9
P ( B2 ) =
25
Now , P(both balls white)= P (W1 ∩ W2 ) =
P (W1 ) P (W2 )
(since W1 and W2 are independent)
3 10 30
= × =
25 25 625
7 6 42
Similarly, P ( R1 ∩ R2 ) = P ( R1 ) P ( R2 ) = × =
25 25 625
15 9 135
and P ( B1 ∩ B2 ) = P ( B1 ) P ( B2 ) = × =
25 25 625
Hence the required probability is P ( (W1 ∩ W2 ) ∪ P ( R1 ∩ R2 ) ∪ ( B1 ∩ B2 ) )
= P (W1 ∩ W2 ) + P ( R1 ∩ R2 ) + P ( B1 ∩ B2 )
( since the events W1 ∩ W2 , R1 ∩ R2 , and B1 ∩ B2 are mutually exclusive )
30 42 135 207
= + + =
625 625 625 625
Q44. Four roads lead away from a jail. A prisoner escaping from the jail
and selects a road at random. If road I is selected probability of
1 1 1
escaping is , for road II it is , for road III it is and if road
8 6 4
9
IV is selected the probability of escaping is .What is the
10
probability that the prisoner will succeed in escaping ?
☺. Let Ai = the event that ‘the prisoner selects the ith road for
escaping. ( i = 1, 2,3, 4 ) . Let A = the event that ‘the prisoner succeeds in

, i = 1, 2,3, 4 and P ( A A1 ) = , P ( A A2 ) = ,
1 1 1
escaping’. Then P ( Ai ) =
4 8 6
P ( A A3 ) = and P ( A A4 ) = .
1 9
4 10
Therefore, the required probability
P ( A ) = P ( A1 ) P ( A A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( A A2 ) + P ( A3 ) P ( A A3 ) + P ( A4 ) P ( A A4 )
1  1 1 1 9  173
=  + + + =
4  8 6 4 10  480
Q45. There are 3 urns containing white and black balls. The first urn
contains 2 white and 3 black balls, the second urn contains 3 white
and 5 black balls and the third urn contains 5 white and 2 black
balls. An urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn from it. Find
the probability that the ball drawn is white.

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☺. Let A1 , A2 , A3 and W be the events ‘first urn chosen’, ‘second urn

chosen’, ‘third urn chosen’ and ‘ball drawn is white’ respectively.
and P (W A1 ) = , P (W A2 ) = ,
1 2 3
Then P= ( A1 ) P=( A2 ) P=( A3 )
3 5 8
P (W A3 ) = . Hence, the required probability is
5
7
P (W ) = P ( A1 ) P (W A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P (W A2 ) + P ( A3 ) P (W A3 )
1  2 3 5  417
=  + + =
3  5 8 7  840
Q46. If the probability of getting a sum greater than 5 is 0.8 and that of
getting a sum less than 8 is 0.6 in tossing a pair of unsymmetrical
dice once, then find the probability of getting a sum equal to 6 or
7.
☺. Let A and B be the events ‘sum greater than 5’ and ‘less than 8’
respectively . Then P ( A ) = 0.8 and P ( B ) = 0.6 and the favourable event
is AB . Therefore the required
probability= P ( AB ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) = 0.8 × 0.6 = 0.48
Q47. n ( ≥ 3) persons are selected at random on n chairs at a round table.
Find the probability that two specified persons are sitting next to
each other.
☺. Since n persons can be seated in n chairs at a round table in ( n − 1)!
ways, the exhaustive number of cases = ( n − 1)!
Assuming the two specified persons A and B who sit together as
one, we get ( n − 1) persons in all, who can be seated at a round table
in ( n − 2 )! ways. Further, since A and B can interchange their positions
in 2! ways, total number of favourable cases of getting A and B

together is ( n − 2 )!× 2! . Hence, required probability=

( n − 2 )!× 2! = 2 .
( n − 1)! n − 1
Q48. A five figure number is formed by the digits 0,1,2,3,4( without
repetition ). Find the probability that the number formed is divisible
by 4 .
☺. The total number of ways in which the five digits 0,1,2,3,4 can be
arranged among themselves is 5!. Out of these, the number of
arrangements which begin with 0 ( and, therefore, will give only 4-
digited numbers) is 4!. Hence the total number of five0-digited numbers
that can be formed from the digit 0,1,2,3,4 is : 5!− 4! = 96
The number formed will be divisible by 4 if number formed by the
two digits on the extreme right (i.e., the digits in the unit and tens
places ) is divisible by 4. Such numbers are: 04, 12, 20, 24, 32, 40.
If the numbers end in 04, the remaining three digits 1,2 and 3 can be
arranged among themselves in 3! ways. Similarly, the number of
arrangements of the numbers ending with 20 and 40 is 3! in each case.

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If the numbers end with 12 , the remaining three digits 0,3,4 can be
arranged in 3! ways. Out of these we shall reject those numbers which
starts with 0( i.e., have 0 as the first digit ). There are ( 3 − 1) ! = 2! such
cases. Hence the number of five-digited numbers ending with 12 is
3!− 2! = 4.
Similarly, the number of five digited numbers ending with 24 and 32
each is 4 .
Hence the total number of favourable cases is 3 × 3!+ 3 × 4 =30 .
30 5
Hence, the required probability= =
96 16
Q49. A six digited number can be composed of the random choice of the
digits from 1,2,3,4,5,6. Find the probability that the number is
divisible by 4.
☺. The total number of ways in which the six digits 1,2,3,4,5,6 can be
arranged among themselves is 6!.
The number formed will be divisible by 4 if number formed by the
two digits on the extreme right is divisible by 4. Such numbers are: 12,
16, 24, 32, 36,52,56,64 ( i.e., total 8 cases )
If the numbers end in 12, the remaining three digits 3,4,5 and 3 can be
arranged among themselves in 4! ways. Similarly, the number of
arrangements of the numbers ending with 16, 24, 32, 36, 52 , 56 and 64 is
4! in each case.
Hence the total number of favourable cases is 8 × 4! .
8 × 4! 8 4
Hence, the required probability= = =
6! 30 15
50. (a) Twelve balls are distributed at random among three boxes. What is
the probability that the first box will contain 3 balls ?
(b) If n biscuits be distributed among N beggars, find the chance that a
particular beggar receives r ( < n ) biscuits .
☺. (a) Since each ball can go to any one of the three boxes, there are three
ways in which a ball can go to any one of the three boxes. Hence
there are 312 ways in which 12 balls can be placed in the three boxes.
Number of ways in which 3 balls out of 12 can go to the first box
12
is c3 ways . Now the remaining 9 balls are to be placed in remaining
2 boxes and this can be done in 29 ways. Hence, the total number of
favourable cases= 12 c3 × 29 .
c3 × 29
12
Therefore, required probability=
312
(b) Take any one biscuit. This can be given to any one of the N beggars so
that there are N ways of distributing any one biscuit. Hence the total
number of ways in which n biscuits can be distributed at random
among N beggars= N .N ........N ( n times )= N n
‘r’ biscuits can be given to any particular beggar in n cr ways. Now
we are left with (n − r ) biscuits which can be distributed among the
( N − 1) ( N − 1)
n−r
remaining beggars and this can be done in ways.

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Therefore the number of favourable cases= n cr . ( N − 1)

n−r

cr ( N − 1)
n n−r

Hence, required probability=

Nn
Q51. A bag contains 5 balls and it is not known how many of these are
white. Two balls are drawn and are found to be white. What is the
probability that all are white ?
☺. Let Ai =the event that ‘the bag contains i white balls’ (0 ≤ i ≤ 5) .
1
Then P ( Ai ) = for i = 0,1, 2,3, 4,5
6
Let A =the event that ‘the two balls are white’. Now P ( A A0 ) = 0 ,
2 3
P ( A A1 ) = 0 , P ( A A=
2) , P ( A A=
3)
c2 1 c2 3
5
= =
5
,
c2 10 c2 10
4 5
P ( A A=
4) ( )
c2 6 c2
5
= , P A =
A5 5
= 1
c2 10 c2
Then by Baye’s theorem, the required probability is
P ( A5 ) P ( A A5 )
P ( A5 A ) =
P ( A0 ) P ( A A0 ) + P ( A1 ) P ( A A1 ) + ...... + P ( A5 ) P ( A A5 )
1
6 1
= =
1 1 3 6  2
 0 + 0 + + + + 1
6 10 10 10 
1 2 3
Q52. Three markersmen can hit the target with probabilities , ,
2 3 4
respectively. They shoot simultaneously and there are two hits. Find
the probability of missing the target by each of the three
merkesmen.
☺. We denote the events of hitting the target by the three marksmen
1 2 3
respectively by A, B, C . It is given that P ( A ) = , P ( B ) = , P ( C ) =
2 3 4
Let X denote the event “there are two hits when the three marksmen
shoot simultaneously”.
Then P ( X= ) P ( ABC + BCA + CAB )
= P ( ABC ) + P ( BCA ) + P ( CAB )
( Since ABC , BCA, CAB are pair-wise mutually exclusive events )
= P ( A) P ( B ) P ( C ) + P ( B ) P ( C ) P ( A ) + P ( C ) P ( A) P ( B )
(  A, B, C are independent )
1 2  3  2 3  1  3 1  2  1 1 1 11
= × × 1 −  + × × 1 −  + × × 1 −  = + + =
2 3  4  3 4  2  4 2  3  12 4 8 24
P ( AX ) P  A ( ABC + BCA + CAB ) 
(A X )
Now P= =
P( X ) P( X )

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P ( BCA ) P ( B ) P (C ) P ( A )
= =
P( X ) P( X )
2 3  1
. . 1 − 
3 4  2 6
= =
11 11
24
P ( BX ) P ( ACB )
(B X ) =
P=
P( X ) P( X )
1 3  2
. . 1 − 
2 4  3  1 24 3
= = × =
11 8 11 11
24
1 2 1
P ( CX ) P ( ABC ) 2 . 3 . 4 2
C X)
P (= = = =
P( X ) P( X ) 11 11
24
6 3 2
So, the required conditional probabilities are , , respectively.
11 11 11
Q53. The probability of a person chosen at random from a population
having a particular disease is 0.02. The probability that a diagnostic
test gives a positive result when the disease is present is 0.75 and a
negative result when the disease is not present is 0.97. Find the
conditional probability of a person having the disease
(i) When the test gives a positive result,
(ii) When the test gives a negative result.
☺. Let X denote the event “the test gives a positive result”. Also let A1
denote the event “a person selected at random from the given population
has the particular disease” and A2 denote the event “the person selected
at random has not the particular disease”.
It is given that P ( A1 ) = 0.02 . Then P ( A2 ) =
1 − 0.02 =.98 .
Further it is given that P ( X A1 ) = 0.75 and P ( X A2 ) = 0.97 .
1 − P ( X A2 ) =
So that P ( X A2 ) = 1 − 0.97 =
0.03
and P ( X A1 ) =−
1 P ( X A1 ) =−
1 .75 =.25
(i) The probability of a person having the disease when the test gives a
positive result is P ( A1 X )
P ( A1 ) P ( X A1 )
=
P ( A1 ) P ( X A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( X A2 )
0.02 × 0.75 0.015
= = ≅ 0.338
0.02 × 0.75 + 0.98 × 0.03 0.0444
P ( A1 ) P ( X A1 )
(
P A1 X = ) P ( A1 ) P ( X A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( X A2 )

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0.02 × 0.25
=
0.02 × 0.25 + 0.98 × 0.97
0.005 0.005
= = ≅ 0.0052
0.005 + 0.9506 0.9556
Hence the required probabilities are 0.338, 0.0052.
Q54. Three boxes having the same appearance have the following
proportion of white and black balls. Box I:1 white and 2 black; box
II : 2 white and 1 black; box III : 2 white and 2 black. One of
these boxes is selected at random, and one ball is drawn randomly
from it. It turns out to be white. What is the probability that the
third box will be chosen ?
☺. Let Ai denoted the event that ‘the ball is drawn from the ith box’
1
( i = 1, 2,3) . Then P= ( A1 ) P= ( A2 ) P= ( A3 ) .
3
Let A denote the event that the ball drawn is a ‘white ball’.
Then we have P ( A A1 = ) 13 , P ( A A2 =) 32 , P ( A A3 =) 42= 12
Hence, required probability is P ( A3 A )
P ( A3 ) P ( A A3 )
=
P ( A1 ) P ( A A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( A A2 ) + P ( A3 ) P ( A A3 )
1 1
.
3 2 1
= =
1 1 2 1  3
+ +
3  3 3 2 
Q55. The chance that a doctor will diagnose a certain disease correctly is
60%. The chance that a patient will die by his treatment after
correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong
diagnosis is 70%. A patient of the doctor who had the disease dies.
What is thee probability that the disease was diagnosed correctly?
☺. Let A denote the event ‘the disease was diagnosed correctly by the
doctor’ and B denote the event ‘a patient who has the disease dies’.
We are given that P ( A ) = , P ( B A ) = , P B A =
3
5
2
5
7
10
. ( )
So that P ( A ) =1 − = .
3 2
5 5
Hence, the required probability= P ( A B )
P ( A) P ( B A)
=
(
P ( A) P ( B A) + P ( A ) P B A )
3 2
.
5 5 6
= =
3 2 2 7 13
. + .
5 5 5 10
Q56. In a college 40% of the science students are girls while 30% of the
girls are science students. If 40% of the students in the college be

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girls, what is the probability that a randomly chosen student from

the college will be a boy who is not a science student ?
☺. Let S denotes the event that ‘the selected student be science student’ ;
G denotes the events that ‘the selected students be girl’ and B denotes
the event that ‘the selected student be boys’.
, P (G =
S) = and P ( S =
G) =
40 2 40 2 30 3
We are given that P (=G) =
100 5 100 5 100 10
P ( SG ) 3
Since P ( S G ) = , ∴
3 3 2 3
= . Thus P (=
SG ) = . .
10 P ( G ) 10 10 5 25
P ( SG ) 2
Since P ( G S ) =
2 3 5 3
,∴ (S ) =
= . Thus P= .
5 P(S ) 5 25 2 10
P ( GS ) 7
Since P ( S G ) = , ∴ P ( S G ) =−
3 3 7
1 = . Thus =
10 10 10 P ( G ) 10

i.e., P (=
GS ) . Also P ( S ) =−
7 2 7 3 7
=. 1 =
10 5 25 10 10
P ( GS ) 7 10 2
Now, P =
GS( )
= =
P(S )
.
25 7 5

( )
Hence, the required probability= P B S =1 − P ( G ) =1 −
2 3
=
5 5
Q57. From an urn containing 5 white and 5 black balls, 5 balls are
transferred at random into an empty second urn from which one
ball is drawn and it is found to be white. What is the probability
that all balls transferred from the first urn are white ?
☺. Let E0 , E1 , E2 , E3 , E4 , E5 be the events defined as follows:
E0 : ‘5 black balls drawn from the first urn’
E1 : ‘1 white and 4 black balls drawn from the first urn’
E2 : ‘2 white and 3 black balls drawn from the first urn’
E3 : ‘3 white and 2 black balls drawn from the first urn’
E4 : ‘4 white and 1 black ball drawn from the first urn’
E5 : ‘5 white ball drawn from the first urn’
Let also X be the event ‘one white ball drawn from the second urn’.
5
C5 1 5
C1 ×5 C4 25
Then P (= E0 ) 10= , P ( E1 ) =
= 10
,
C5 252 C5 252
C2 ×5 C3 25
5 5
C3 ×5 C2 25 C4 ×5 C1 25
5
P ( E2 )
= =10
=, P ( E3 ) =10
=, P ( E4 ) =10
C5 63 C5 63 C5 252
5
C5 1
P (=
E5 ) =
10
.
C5 252

Also P ( X E0 ) = 0 , P ( X E1 ) = , P ( X E2 ) = , P ( X E3 ) = ,
1 2 3
5 5 5
P ( X E4 ) = and P ( X E5 ) = 1
4
5

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P ( E5 ) P ( X E5 )
Hence, the required probability= P ( E5 X ) =
1
5
=
∑ P ( E )P ( X E )
126
i i
i =0
Q58. In an examination 30% of the students failed in mathematics, 15% of
the students failed in chemistry and 10% of the students failed in
both chemistry and mathematics. A student is selected at random. If
he failed in chemistry, then what is the probability that he passed in
mathematics ?
Q59. If n things be distributed among a men and b(b > a ) women, the
show that chance that number of things received by men is odd, is
(b + a ) − (b − a ) .
n n

2 (b + a )
n

☺. Probability that an object is received be a man is

a
= p (say) .
a+b
b
Probability that an object is received by an women is = q (say) .
a+b
The probability that the number of objects received by men are odd is
equal to n c1 p1q n −1 + n c3 p 3 q n −3 + ...... + n cr p r q n − r
where r = n is odd
= n – 1 if n is even.
=
1
2
{
( p + q) − (q − p)
n n
}
1   b − a  
n

=  
1 −  
2   b + a  

(b + a ) − (b − a )
n n

= .
2 (b + a )
n

Q60. If a die is thrown n times , show that the probability of an even

1   2  
n

number of sixes is 1 +   
2   3  
Q61. ( Huyghen’s problem) A and B Alternatively toss a pair of dice with
A straight game. A wins if he gets six before B gets seven and B
wins if he gets seven before A gets six. Show that the probability
30
of A wining is .
61
☺. Let A =event that A wins in a particular throw.
B =event that B wins in a particular throw.
If A and B denote respectively the events complement to A and B ,
then the even in question is either of the following mutually exclusive
events A, ABA, ABABA,.......... i.e., A wins in the first or third or fifth

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5
etc. throws preceding by all the failures, Since P ( A ) = and
36
1
P ( B) = , the required probability
6
= P ( A ) + P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( A ) + P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( A ) + ..............
2
5  31 5  5  31 5  5
= +  × × +  ×  + ................
36  36 6  6  36 6  36
5
5 36 × 6 30
= 36 =× =
31 5 36 61 61
1− .
36 6
Q62. Two dice are thrown, together a number of timers in succession. Find
the minimum number of throws to ensure that the Probability of
1
obtaining six on both the dice at least once is greater than .
2
☺. When two dice are thrown, the event space S contains 36 simple events.
Let the two dice be thrown n times . Then the corresponding event
space S n contains 36n simple events.
Let A denote the event ‘at least one double six in n throws’. Then the
complementary event A is the event ‘no double six’ and so A contains
35n simple events.
n n
 35   35 
P ( A ) =   and so P ( A ) = 1 −  
 36   36 
n n
 35  1  35 
Now 1 −   > if log   < − log 2
 36  2  36 
log 2
i.e., if n > = 24.7 nearly.
log 36 − log 35
Hence the least number of throws required is 25.
1
Q63. A missile has probability of destroying its target and probability
2
1
of missing it. Assuming that the missile firings from independent
2
trials, determine the least number of missiles that should be fired at
a target in order to make the probability of destroying the target at
least 0.99.
☺. Let n be the number of missiles to be fired so that the probability of
destroying the target is at least 0.99. Let Ai denote the event ‘hitting
the target at the ith trial , i = 1, 2,......, n .

and P ( Ai ) =1 − = , i = 1, 2,......, n .
1 1 1
Now, P ( Ai ) =
2 2 2

Therefore, the probability of missing the target in all the trials is

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P ( A1 A2 ....... An ) = P ( A1 ) P ( A2 ) ......P ( An ) =
1
.
2n

1
Thus, the probability of destroying the target in n trials is 1 −
2n
1
By the hypothesis, 1 − ≥ .99
2n
2
or, (.5 ) ≤ .01 or, n ≥
n
=6.4
log 2
Hence, the required least number of missiles that should be fired = 7.
Q64. 100 prizes will be given in a lottery of 10000 tickets. Find the
minimum number of tickets a person has to buy in order that the
1
probability of his wining at least one prize is greater than
2
Q65. (a) If a day is dry, then the conditional probability that the following
day is dry is p ; if a day is wet, the conditional probability that
the following day is dry p′ ; if un is the probability that the nth
day will be dry, then prove that un − ( p − p′ ) un −1 − p′ = 0, n ≥ 2
3 1
(b) If the first day is sure to be dry,=p =, p′ , then find un .
4 4
☺. Let A1 , A2 and X denote the events ‘ ( n − 1) th day dry’, ‘ ( n − 1) th day
wet’ and ‘nth day dry’ respectively.
Then P ( X A1 ) = p , P ( X A2 ) = p′ , P ( X ) = un , P ( A1 ) = un −1 and P ( A2 ) = 1 − un −1 .
(a) Now = X XA1 + XA2 and the events on the right hand sides are mutually
exclusive.
P ( X ) = P ( XA1 ) + P ( XA2 ) = P ( A1 ) P ( X A1 ) + P ( A2 ) P ( X A2 )
Therefore un = pun −1 + p′ (1 − un −1 )
or, un − ( p − p′ ) un −1 − p′ = 0, n ≥ 2 ………..(1)
(b) Since, the first day is sure to be dry, therefore u1 = 1 .
3 1
Also given that= p = , p′
4 4
3 1 1
So we have from (1), un −  −  un −1 − = 0
4 4 4
or, 22 un − 2un −1 − 1 =0
or, 2n +1 un − 2n un −1 − 2n −1 ( 2 − 1) =
0
or, 2n ( 2un − 1=
) 2n−1 ( 2un−1 − 1=) ........= 2 ( 2u1 − 1=) 2
1 1
∴ un =
+
2n 2
Q66. A player tosses a coin and is score one for every head turned up

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and two for every tail. He is to play until his score reaches or passes
n . If pn is his chance of attaining exactly n , then show that
1
= pn ( pn−1 + pn−2 ) . Hence find pn and its limit as n → ∞ .
2
☺. Let B1 , B2 and An be the events ‘head turn up’, ‘tail turn up’ and ‘score
is exactly n ’ respectively.
Now a player can score exactly n in two ways:
(i) Scoring n − 2 at a certain stage and then getting a tail in the
next trial.
or,
(ii) Scoring n − 1 at a certain stage and then getting a head in the
next trial.
∴ A= n An −1 B1 + An − 2 B2 and the two events on the right hand side being
mutually exclusive and the trails being independent.
1
Thus= , pn ( pn−1 + pn−2 )
2
1
2nd part: = pn ( pn−1 + pn−2 )
2
1 1 1 1
pn + pn −1 =pn −1 + pn − 2 = pn − 2 + pn −3 =………..= p2 + p1 ……….(1)
2 2 2 2
Since 2 can be obtained in the following mutually exclusive ways:
(i) Head in first toss and head in 2nd toss, (ii) Tail in the first toss.
1 1 1 3 1
We have , p2= . + = and obviously p1 = .
2 2 2 4 2
1 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 2
Hence from (1) we get pn + pn −1 = + . = + = + .
2 4 2 2 3 3 3 2 3
2  1  2
Therefore, pn − = −   pn −1 − 
3  2  3
2  1  2
pn −1 − = −   pn − 2 − 
3  2  3
……………………………..
2  1  2
p2 − = −   p1 − 
3  2  3
Multiplying all the above equations, we get
n −1 n −1
2  1  2  1 1 2 n 1 1
pn − =−    p1 −  =−   − = ( −1) n .
3  2  3  2 2 3 2 3
1 n 1 
or, p=n  2 + ( −1) n 
3 2 
2 1
∴ lim pn = , since lim n = 0 .
n →∞ 3 n→∞ 2
Q67. A coin is tossed ( m + n ) times ( m > n ) . Show that the probability of
n+2
getting at least m consecutive heads is .
2m +1
☺. Since m > n , it is possible to get m consecutive heads if the result stands

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with head from the first toss or second toss or …….or ( n + 1) th toss. Let
Ei denotes the event that we get m consecutive heads starting with the
i th toss.
Now, if E denotes the event of getting m consecutive heads , then
E = E1 + E2 + ...... + En +1 .
So, P ( E =
) P ( E1 + E2 + ....... + En+1 )
= P ( E1 ) + P ( E2 ) + .......... + P ( En +1 )
[ since E1 , E2 ,......, En +1 are mutually exclusive ]
Now P ( E1 ) = P (consecutive heads in the first m tosses )
m
1 1
=  = m
2 2
P ( E2 ) = P (tail in the first toss and then m consecutive heads )
m
1 1 1
= .   = m+1
2 2 2
P ( E3 ) = P (tail in the second toss and then m consecutive heads )
m
1 1 1
= .   = m+1
2 2 2
………………………………………………………………………
P ( En +1 ) = P (tail in the n th toss and then m consecutive heads )
m
1 1 1
= .   = m+1
2 2 2
1  1 1 1 
Hence, the required probability= +  m +1 + m +1 + ............ + m +1 
2 2 
m
2 2
1 n n+2
= m + m +1 =
2 2 2m +1
Q68. A coin is tossed (m + n) times ( m > n ) . Show that the probability of
n+3
getting exactly m consecutive heads is .
2m + 2
☺. Denoting ‘head’ by H , ‘tail’ by T and ‘head or tail’ by X , the
Sequence of exactly m consecutive heads can any of the following :
E0 : ( HH .......m times ) T ( XX ....... ( n − 1) times )
E1 : T ( HH ........m times ) T ( XX ....... ( n − 2 ) times )
E2 : XT ( HH .........m times ) T ( XX ....... ( n − 3) times )
………………………………………………………..
En −1 : ( XX ....... ( n − 2 ) times ) T ( HH .........m times ) T
En : ( XX ....... ( n − 1) times ) T ( HH .........m times )
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Now P ( E0 ) = m
. .1 , P ( E1 ) = . m . .1 , P ( E2 ) = 1. . m . .1 ,………….,
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

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1 1 1 1 1
P ( En −1 ) = 1. . m . , P ( En ) = 1. . m .
2 2 2 2 2
1  1 1 1 
Hence, the required probability= m+1 1 + + + ........ + + 1
2  2 2 2 
1  n − 1 n + 3
= m +1  2 + =
2  2  2m + 2
Q69. From an urn containing n balls any number of balls are drawn.
2n −1 − 1
Show that the probability of drawing an even number of ball is
2n − 1
Q70. From a pack of 52 playing cards, an even number of cards is drawn.
Find the probability that these consist of half of red and half of black.
☺. From a pack of 52 cards, an even number of cards can be drawn in
52
c2 + 52 c4 + 52 c6 + ........... + 52 c52 ways .
Of these, the number those consisting of half of red and half of black is
c1.26 c1 + 26 c2 .26 c2 + ........... + 26 c26 .26 c26 = ( 26 c1 ) + ( 26 c2 ) + ......... + ( 26 c26 )
2 2 2
26

It is known that when n is even , n

2n −1
c0 + n c2 + n c4 + ...... + n cn =
( 2n ) !
( c ) +( c ) (c)=
2 2 2
and n n
+ ........... + n

( n !)
0 2 n 2

So that 52
c2 + 52 c4 + 52 c6 + ........... + 52 c52 = 251 − 1 and
( 52 )! − 1 .
( ) +( ) ( )
2 2 2
26
c1 26
c2 + ......... + 26
c26 =
{( 26 )!}
2

( 52 )! − 1
{( 26 )!}
2

Hence, the required probability=

251 − 1
Q71. At a busy street intersection, it is estimated that a joy-walker hit by
a car with probability. 01. Assuming that individual trips from
independent trials, find the probability of a joy -walker remaining
unhit if he crosses the street twice per day for 50 days.
☺. Let ‘success’ denote the event ‘a joy-walker is hit by a car’.
Then p =probability of success=.01
Now the joy-walker crosses the street twice per day for 50 days, i.e., he
crosses the road 100 times in all.
Hence, the required probability=probability of ‘no success in 100 trials’
= 100 c0 (.01) (1 − .01) = (.99 )
0 100 100

2
Q72. Suppose that probability of a new-born baby a boy is . In a family
3
of 8 children, calculate the probability that (i) there are 4 or 5 boys
(ii) number of boys lies in the interval [5,7]
☺. We consider successive births of babies in a family as independent
Bernoulli trials. If ‘success’ means the event ‘ a new born baby a boy’, we

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2
have 8 Bernoulli trials with p = .
3
(i) If A be event that ‘there are 4 or 5 boys’, then
4 4 5 3
2  2  2   2  2912
( A)
P= c4   1 −  +8 c5   1 −  =
8

3  3  3   3  6561
(ii) If Ar = ‘ r boys out of 8 children’, then required probability is
5 3 6 2 7 1
2  2 8 2  2 8 2  2  4608
1 −  + c6   1 −  + c7   1 −  =
8
c5  
3  3 3  3 3  3  6561
2
Q73. A and B play a game in which A ’s chance of wining is . In a
3
Series of 8 games, what is the chance that A will win at least 6 games?
☺. We consider the series of 8 games as 8 independent Bernoulli trials . If
‘success’ means that ‘ A ’s wining in a particular game’ we have 8
2
Bernoulli trials with p = . Then the required probability is
3
6 2 7 1 8 0
2  2  2 1  2   1  3072
c6   1 −  +8 c7     +8 c8     =
8

3  3  3 3  3   3  6561

Q74. What is the probability of obtaining multiple of three twice in a
throw of 6 dice ?
Q75. The probability of hitting a target is 0.002 for each shot. A shooter
aims to hit the target. Find the probability of shooter’s success with two
or more shots, if the number of shots is 1000 .
☺. Here p = .002 and n = 1000 . Then p is small and n is large while
=µ np = 2 is of moderate value. So we apply Poisson approximation. Hence,
required probability= 1 − { P ( A0 ) + P ( A1 )} , where Ai is the event ‘ i successes
in 1000 trials’
µi
P ( Ai ) e=
= 1 − e −2 − 2e −2 = 1 − 3e −2 , since = −µ
, i 0,1, 2,.....
i!
Q76. Find the probability that in 8 throws of a die, the number 1,3,5 turn
up 2,3,3 times respectively.
☺. From multinomial law, the required probability
2 3 3
8!  1   1   1 
=       , since the probability of getting 1,3,5 from a
2!3!3!  6   6   6 
1
single throw are equal to .
6
Q77. A and B play a game which must be either won or lost. If the
probability that A wins a game is p , show that be probability that
A wins m games before B wins n games is
p

∫x
m −1
(1 − x) n −1 dx
m + n −1
 m + n − 1 i
∑  p (1 − p )
m + n −1−i
=
0
1
 i 
∫ x (1 − x) dx
i =m m −1 n −1

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☺. Let E be the event ‘ A wins m games before B wins n games’. We

consider m + n − 1 Bernoulli trials with the event ‘ A wins’ as success.
Then E happens if and only if in ( m + n − 1) trials we have at least
m successes.
m + n −1
 m + n − 1 i
∑  p (1 − p )
m + n −1−i
The required probability=
i =m  i 
p

∫ x (1 − x )
m −1 n −1
dx
( m + n − 1)! p x m−1 1 − x n−1 dx .
( )
( m − 1)!( n − 1)! ∫0
Let I m ,n = 0
1
=
∫ x (1 − x )
m −1 n −1
dx
0

( m + n − 1)!
 x (1 − x )
n −1 p
 ( m + n − 1) !( n − 1) p m
x (1 − x ) dx
n−2
∫
m
Then I m,n = +
m ( m − 1)!( n − 1)!   0 m ( m − 1)!( n − 1)!
0

( m + n − 1)! p m 1 − p n−1 + ( m + n − 1)! x m 1 − x n−2 dx

p

( ) ( )
m !( n − 2 ) ! ∫0
=
m !( n − 1)!
 m + n − 1 m
 p (1 − p )
n −1
Thus, I m ,n −= I m +1,n −1 
 m 
 m + n − 1 m +1
 p (1 − p )
n−2
Similarly, I m +1,n −1 −= I m + 2,n − 2 
 m +1 
………………………………………………………
 m + n − 1  m+ n−2
(1 − p )
1
I m + n −=2,2 − I m + n −1,1  p
 m + n − 2


m+ n−2 m + n − 1
  i
have I m ,n ∑   p (1 − p )
m + n −1−i
Adding, we = + I m + n −1,1 ……..(1)
i =m  i 
( m + n − 1)! p x m+ n−2 dx = p m+ n−1 =  m + n − 1 p m+ n−1 1 − p 0 …….(2)
( )
( m + n − 2 )! ∫0
Now, I m + n −1,1 =  
 m + n − 1
m + n −1
 m + n − 1 i
∑  p (1 − p )
m + n −1−i
Using (2) in (1) we have, I m ,n =
i =m  i 
p

m + n −1
 m + n − 1 i ∫ x m −1 (1 − x) n −1 dx
Hence the required probability= ∑   p (1 − p )
m + n −1−i
=
0
1
 i 
∫ x (1 − x) dx
i =m m −1 n −1

0
Q78. If a coin is tossed repeatedly, find the probability of getting m heads
before n tails .

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