Principles of Statistics

Week 3
The Probability function.(2.3)

Mihaela Angelova
mihaela.urb@gmail.com
 Unions, Intersections, and Complements

Intersection Union Complement

A∩B AUB Ac

DeMorgan’s laws:
(A ∩ B)c = Ac ∪ Bc
(A ∪ B)c = Ac ∩ Bc
More Venn diagrams
Unions, Intersections, and Complements
• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as
the following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (a) A C
• (b) A ∩ B
• (c) A ∪ B
• (d) A ∩ BC
• (e) AC ∪ B
• (f) AC ∩ BC
Unions, Intersections, and Complements

• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined

as the following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (a) A C=?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}
So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}

Then A C = {0} ∪ {x: 5 ≤ x ≤ 10}

 Unions, Intersections, and Complements

• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as

the following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (b) A ∩ B=?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}

Then A ∩ B ={x: 3 ≤ x < 5}

 Unions, Intersections, and Complements
• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the
following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (c) A ∪ B=?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}
So A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}
A ∪ B = A or B or both ={1,2,3,4,5,6,7}

Then A ∪ B={x: 0 < x ≤ 7}

 Unions, Intersections, and Complements
• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (d) A ∩ B C =?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}
So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}
Then B C = {0,1,2, 8,9,10}

Then A ∩ B C = {x : 0<x <3 }

Unions, Intersections, and Complements
• Let events A and B and sample space S be defined as the following
intervals: S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (e) AC ∪ B =?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}

Then A C = {0, 5,6,7,8,9,10}
AC ∪ B = AC or B or both ={0,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}
Then A C ∪ B ={0} ∪ {x : 3≤x≤ 10}
 Unions, Intersections, and Complements

• Let events A and B and sample space S be

defined as the following intervals:
S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x : 0<x <5}, B ={x : 3≤x ≤7}

• Characterize the following events:

• (f) A C ∩ B C=?
We know A є S and S ={x : 0≤x ≤10}, A={x:0<x <5}, B ={x:3≤x ≤7}

So S ={0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10}, A={1,2,3,4}, B ={3,4,5,6,7}

Then A C = {0, 5,6,7,8,9,10}, B C = {0,1,2, 8,9,10}
A C ∩ B C= both part (the intersection)
Then A C ∩ B C={0} ∪ { x: 7 <x≤ 10}
The Probability function
Kolmogorov’s Axioms
• Axiom 1. A є S. Then P(A)≥0.
• Axiom 2. P(S)=1.
If mutually
• Axiom 3. (A ∩ B=∅) -> P(A ∪ B)= P(A)+ P(B) exclusive
• Axiom 4. infinite number of members, A i ∩ A j =∅ for
each i # j, then

Basic Properties of P
• P(Ac) = 1 – P(A)
• P(Ø) = 0, we read ‘empty set’
• P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
• If A є B, P(A)<P(B)
• P(A𝑐 ∪ B𝑐 )=P((A ∩ B)𝑐)=1-P(A ∩ B)
• P(A𝑐 ∩ B)=P(B)-P(A ∩ B)
 The Probability function
• Let A and B be any two events defined on S. Suppose
that P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.1.
• What is the probability that A or B but not both occur?

P(A) = 0.4,
P(B) = 0.5
P(A ∩ B) = 0.1

P(A or B but not both) = ?

 The Probability function
P(A) = 0.4
P(B) = 0.5

P(A ∩ B) = 0.1

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

= 0.4 + 0.5 – 0.1 = 0.8

P(A or B but not both) = P(A ∪ B) - P(A ∩ B)

P(A or B but not both) = 0.8 – 0.1 = 0.7
 The Probability function
• Let A and B be two events defined on S. If the
probability that at least one of them occurs is 0.3 and
the probability that A occurs but B does not occur is 0.1,
• what is P(B)?
 The Probability function
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.3 =0.3
(at least one of them occurs: A or B or both)

P(A ∩ Bc) = P(A) – P(A ∩ B) = 0.1

(A occurs, but B doesn’t)
=0.1
Basic Properties of P
• P(A𝑐 ∩ B)=P(B)-P(A ∩ B)
From Eq.1: P(B)=0.3-P(A)+ P(A ∩ B)
From Eq.2: P(A ∩ B) = P(A) - 0.1
=?
 P(B)=0.3-P(A)+ P(A) - 0.1 = 0.2

P(B) = 0.3-0.1=0.2 (also using the Venn diagram)

(B occurs)
 The Probability function
• Events A and B are defined on a sample space S such
that P((A ∪ B)C) = 0.5 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.2.
• What is the probability that either A or B but not both will
occur?
 The Probability function
P((A ∪ B)C) =0.5 =0.5 =0.5
P(A ∩ B)=0.2
P(A ∪ B) = 1 – P((A ∪ B)c) =0.5

=0.2

=?

P(A or B but not both)= P(A ∪ B) - P(A ∩ B)=0.5 - 0.2 = 0.3

 The Probability function
• Let A1,A2,…,An be a series of events for which Ai ∩ Aj = ∅
if i # j and A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ...An = S.
• Let B be any event defined on S.
• Express B as a union of intersections.
 The Probability function
• Let A1,A2,…,An be a series of events for which Ai ∩ Aj = ∅
if i # j and A1 ∪ A2 ∪ ...An = S.
• Let B be any event defined on S.
• Express B as a union of intersections.

А1 А2 B = (B ∩ A1) ∪ (B ∩ A2)
… ∪ (B ∩ An)

А3 for any given mutually

B exclusive events
 The Probability function
• According to a family-oriented lobbying group, there is
too much crude language and violence on television.
• 42% of the programs they screened had language they
found offensive, 27% were too violent, and 10% were
considered excessive in both language and violence.
• What percentage of programs did comply with the
group’s standards?
 The Probability function
• Let L and V denote the sets of programs with offensive
language and too much violence, respectively.
• Then P(L) = 0.42, P(V) = 0.27, and P(L ∩ V) = 0.10.

Therefore,
• P(program complies) = P((L ∪ V)C ) =1- P(L ∪ V)=
= 1 − [P(L) + P(V) − P(L ∩ V)] =
= 1 –(0.42+0.27-0.10) = 0.41

Basic Properties of P
P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
 The Probability function
• An urn contains twenty-four chips, numbered 1 through
24. One is drawn at random.
• Let A be the event that the number is divisible by 2
• Let B be the event that the number is divisible by 3.
• Find P(A ∪ B)?
 The Probability function
• An urn contains twenty-four chips, numbered 1 through
24. One is drawn at random.
• Let A be the event that the number is divisible by 2
• Let B be the event that the number is divisible by 3.
• Find P(A∪ B)?
Solution:
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24}; P(A )=

B = {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24); P(B )=

A ∩ B = {6, 12, 18, 24}. P(A ∩ B )=

Therefore, P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) =

 The Probability function
• After taking two years of chemistry, a year of physics,
and a year of biology, Jack decides to apply for
medical education and sends his scores to two schools,
X and Y. He estimates that his probability of being
accepted at X is 0.7, and at Y is 0.4. He also suspects
there is a 75% chance that at least one of his
applications will be rejected.
• What is the probability that he gets at least one
acceptance?
 The Probability function
• A - the event “School X accepts him”
• B - the event “School Y accepts him.”

• We know that P(A)=0.7, P(B)=0.4, and P(AC ∪ BC )=0.75

• P(A ∪ B)=? (at least one acceptance)

Solution:
To find P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A ∩ B), we need P(A ∩ B)

• P(AC ∪ BC) = P(A ∩ B)C (De Morgan’s law)

• P(A ∩ B) = 1− P(A ∩ B)C=1−0.75=0.25

Then P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A∩ B)= 0.7+0.4−0.25=0.85

• It follows that Jack has an 85% chance of getting in

somewhere
 The Probability function
• If State’s football team has a 10% chance of winning
Saturday’s game, a 30% chance of winning two weeks
from now, and a 65% chance of losing both games,
• what are their chances of winning exactly once?
 The Probability function
• Event A: State wins Saturday
• Event B: State wins next Saturday
• Then P(A) = 0.10, P(B) = 0.30, and
• P(lose both) = P(A ∪ B)c=
1 − P(A ∪ B) = 0.65 ,
which implies that
• P(A ∪ B) = 0.35 (win A or B or both) lose both win A or B
or both
• Therefore,
• P(A ∩ B) = P(A)+ P(B)− P(A ∪ B) = 0.05 (win both)

• P(State wins exactly once) = P(win A or B)=

= P(A ∪ B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.35 − 0.05 = 0.30

(win A or B (win both)

or both) wins exactly once
 The Probability function
• Events A1 and A2 are such that A1 ∪ A2 = S and
• A 1 ∩ A 2 =∅.
• P(A1)= p1 , P(A2)= p2 , and 3p1−p2 =1/2
• p2 =?
 The Probability function
• Events A1 and A2 are such that A1 ∪ A2 = S and
• A1 ∩ A2 =∅.
• Find p2 if P(A1)= p1 , P(A2)= p2 , and 3p1−p2 =1/2

Solution: We know from Axiom 2. P(S)=1 = P(A1 ∪ A2)

• Since A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and cover the
entire sample space => Axiom 3. P(A1 ∪ A2)= P(A1)+ P(A2)
• Then p1 + p2 = 1 => p1=1-p2
• But 3p1 − p2 =1/2, => p1=(1/2+p2)/3
So:
• 1-p2=(1/2+p2)/3
• 1-p2=1/6+p2/3
• p2/3 +p2=1-1/6
• 4p2/3 =5/6
• p2=5/6 x 3/4= 5/8
 The Probability function
• Lucy is currently committing two frauds. She estimates
that the chances of the first one leading to her arrest
are one in ten; the “risk” associated with the second is
one in thirty.
• She considers the likelihood that she gets arrested for
both to be 0.0025.
• What are Lucy’s chances of avoiding prison?
 The Probability function
• Let A be the event of getting arrested for the first fraud;
• B - for the second
• P(A) =1/10,
• P(B) = 1/30,
• P(A ∩ B) = 0.0025

Her chances of not getting arrested are:

• P[(A ∪ B)C ] =1 − P(A ∪ B) = 1 − [P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)] =
= 1 − [1/10 + 1/30 − 0.0025] = 0.869

Basic Properties of P
P(A ∪ B )=P(A)+P(B) - P(A ∩ B ) If intersection
Thank you for your attention!

Mihaela Angelova
mihaela.urb@gmail.com