STAT 2593

Fall 2010

Solutions to Assignment 3
(Due in class on Friday, Oct. 8 2010)
Note: The following problems might be solved in quite a few different, but correct ways.
It is very IMPORTANT that you WRITE DOWN YOUR ARGUMENTS as well, not
merely a numerical answer.

1. (6+9 points) Calculate the following probabilities:

a) If P(A) = .95, P(B)=.90 and P(A∩B) =.88, Find P(A∪B) and P(A’∩B’).
b) If A and B are independent with P(A) = .5 and P(B) =.2, find P(A∪B), P(A’∩B’) and
P(A’∪B’).

Solution:

a) i) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) =.95 + .90 - .88. = .97.

ii) P(A’∩B’) = P[(A∪B)’] = 1 - P(A∪B) = 1-.97 = .03.

b) i) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)P(B) by independence

= .5+.2-.5*.2 = .6.
ii) P(A’∩B’) = P[(A∪B)’] = 1 - P(A∪B) = 1-.6 = .4.
[Or P(A’∩B’) = P(A’) P(B’) = (1-.5)*(1-.2) = .4 by independence.]

iii) P(A’∪B’) = P[(A∩B)’] = 1 - P(A∩B) = 1 - P(A)P(B) = 1 - .5*.2 = .90.

2. (5+5+5 points) Answer the following questions:

a) Suppose that P(A∪B) = 0.7, P(A) = 0.3 and P(A∩B) = 0.2. Are events A and B
independent?
b) Suppose that the events A and B are mutually exclusive with P(A) > 0 and P(B) > 0.
Are events A and B independent?
c) Suppose that P(A) = .70 and P(B)=.90. Are events A and B mutually exclusive?

Solution:

a) P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B), that is, 0.7 = 0.3 + P(B) - 0.2. So P(B) = 0.6. Hence
P(A∩B) = 0.2 ≠0.3*0.6 = P(A)P(B); therefore the events A and B are not independent.

b) Since P(A) > 0 and P(B) > 0, we have P(A)P(B) > 0. We also have P(A∩B) = 0 since
the events A and B are mutually exclusive. Hence P(A∩B) ≠ P(A)P(B); therefore the
events A and B are not independent.
c) Since P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B), we have
P(A∩B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∪B) = .70+.90 - P(A∪B) ≥ .70+.90 – 1 = .60 ≠ 0. Thus
events A and B are not mutually exclusive.

3. (5+10+5 points) The route used by a certain motorist in commuting to work contains
two distant intersections with (long) traffic signals. Let A be the event that she must stop
at the first signal, and let B be the event that she must stop at the second signal.
a) If P(A) = 0.55, P(B) = 0.45, and P(A ∩B) = 0.30, what is the probability that
she does not have to stop when commuting to work at either traffic signal ?
b) If P(A ∪ B) = 0.80, P(A) = 2P(B), and P(A’∪ B’) = 0.80, i) determine the probability
that she must stop at the first traffic signal. ii) determine the conditional probability that
she does not have to stop at the second traffic signal given that she must stop at the first
traffic signal.
c) Suppose that P(A)=0.30, and P(B’| A) = 0.20, determine the probability that
the motorist must stop at both traffic signals.

Solution:

a) The event that she does not have to stop is the “not" of A ∪ B, i.e. (A ∪ B)’ so
its probability is 1 - P(A ∪ B). Now P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩B) =
0.55 + 0.45 – 0.30 = 0.70, so the probability that she doesn't have to stop at
either light is 1 – 0.70 = 0.30.

b) We are being asked to find P(A). Since A’∪ B’ = (A ∩B)’, we have

P(A ∩B) = 1 – P{(A ∩B)’} = 1 - P(A’∪ B’) =1- 0.80 = 0.20. Thus
P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A ∩B)=2 P(B) + P(B) - P(A ∩B) =3 P(B)-P(A ∩B)
becomes .80 = 3 P(B)- 0.20. That is, P(B)=1/3 so P(A) = 2P(B) = 2/3.

P(B’|A) = 1- P(B|A) = 1- P(A ∩B)/ P(A) = 1- 0.2/(2/3) = .70.

c) We are being asked to find P(A ∩B). Since P(B|A) = 1-P(B’ | A) = 1-0.20 = 0.80, we have
P(A ∩B) = P(B|A) P(A) = .80*.30 = .24.

4. (4+4+4+4 points) A bowl contains 4 blue balls, 3 red balls and 2 green balls. If two
balls are drawn successively at random without replacement, what is the probability of
a) drawing a red ball on each of the two draws?
b) drawing a red ball on the second draw?
c) drawing a red ball on at least one of the two draws
d) red on the first draw and blue on the second draw?

Solution: Let Ri be the event that a red ball on the ith draw, i = 1,2. Let Bi be the event
that a blue ball on the ith draw. Hence
a) P(R1∩R2) = P(R1) P(R2 | R1) = (3/9)(2/8) =1/12.

b) P(R2) = P(R1) P(R2 | R1) + P(R’1) P(R2 | R’1) = (3/9)*(2/8) + (6/9)*(3/8) =1 /3.
c) P(R1∪R2) = P(R1) + P(R2) - P(R1∩R2) = 3/9+1/3 - 1/12 = 7/12.

d) P(R1∩B2) = P(R1) P(B2 | R1) = (3/9)(4/8) = 1/6.

5. (8+8 points) A laboratory blood test is 85% effective in detecting a certain disease
when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a `false positive’ result for 4% of
healthy persons tested. If 10% of the population actually has the disease, for a randomly
selected person from this population,
a) what is the probability of that the test result for this person is positive?
b) what is the conditional probability of that a person has the disease given that the test
result is positive?

Solution: Let D denote the event that an individual has the disease. Let A denote the
event that an individual is tested positive. We have
P(D) = .1, P(A | D) = .85 and P(A | D’) = 0.04. P(D’) = 1- .1 =.9.

a) P(A) = P(D)P(A | D) + P(D’)P(A | D’) = 0.121.

b) P(D | A) = P(D)P(A | D) / {P(D)P(A | D) + P(D’)P(A | D’)}

= .1*.85/(.1*.85+.9*.04) = 0.702 approximately.

6. (8+8 points) At a certain stage of a criminal investigation the inspector in charge is

60% convinced of the guilt of a certain suspect. Suppose now that a new piece of
evidence that shows that the criminal has a certain characteristic (such as le ft-handedness,
baldness, or brown hair) is uncovered. If 20% of the population possesses this
characteristic, how certain of the guilt of the suspect should the inspector now be if it
turns out that the suspect has this characteristic?

Solution: Let G denote the event that the suspect is guilty and C be the event that the
suspect possesses the characteristic of the criminal. Then we have P(G) = 0.6, P( C | G) =
1 and P( C | G’) = 0.2. Thus

P(G | C) = [P( C | G)P(G)] / [P( C | G)P(G) + P( C | G’)P(G’)]

= (1*0.6) / (1*0.6 + 0.2*0.4) ≈ 0.882,
where we have supposed that the probability of the suspect having the characteristic if he
is, in fact, innocent is equal to 0.2, the proportion of the population possessing the
characteristic.